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Le Pen and Zemmour still haven’t got enough nominations – politicalbetting.com

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  • Couldn't a Polish airfield be a temporary Ukrainian embassy?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    pigeon said:

    I don't know if some of these old Soviet aircraft might end up finding their way to Ukraine: AIUI they're all due to be replaced by more modern American hardware, possibly with the Americans therefore underwriting their "sale" (i.e. donation) to Ukraine. Selling the Ukrainians aircraft wouldn't essentially be any different to selling them crates of anti-tank weapons or artillery pieces, which is what we've already been doing for a while.

    But they'd surely have to operate them from their own territory? I don't believe for one minute that NATO will be offering them the use of air bases.
    No, it is silly nonsense from EU cheerleaders. It gives Putin the best excuse to directly attack Poland and the Baltics (and with reason), Then we have to negotiate a tense non-nuke-apocalypse truce with him as he quietly takes everything he wants in Ukraine as reward for his injured pride/our over-reach

    It would be a calamitously stupid thing to do for the EU/NATO

    Right now Putin is busy destroying Russian esteem, pride, power, money and arms in a really bad, misadvised war in Ukraine. In terms of brutal realpolitik, we should let him carry on, while quietly arming the Ukrainians with stingers and drones

    That depletes and disarms one of our major global enemies. It is what we want. It is exactly what the Russians and Chinese did when we foolishly invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. They stayed a distance away, but discreetly used it to weaken and distract the West. With great success

    It is brutal and cruel, but we should now do the same to Russian in Ukraine. The Cold War is back

  • Possible next PM, Hunt, interviewing well on Newsnight.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Not saying it makes it at all true, but the flying Migs from Poland thing I think came from the facebook page of the Ukrainian army
    https://www.facebook.com/UkrainianLandForces

    Polish official gone rogue, NATO high command to reign them back in?
  • To those blaming this on NATO expansion, maybe pause and think about that?

    Well that covers the particularly arrogant idiots group, if they are aiming for broad representation they need the other 99% of the population.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681
    edited February 2022

    She's also send you the electricity bill.

    Hmmm. AS is an apposite description, but missing an S.

    Alexei Sayle is one of the first signatories to that Stop the War Coalition letter that Starmer compelled the 11 MPs to remove themselves from.
    https://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/list-of-signatories-stop-the-war-statement-on-the-crisis-over-ukraine/

    He was also on entirely the wrong side of the antisemitism debate several years ago. Quite the conspiraloon.

    "I think the allegations of anti-semitism in the Labour Party are all fabricated attacks on Jeremy Corbyn"
    "Most of the people who have been suspended from the Labour Party for anti-semitism seem to be Jewish"

    https://twitter.com/SussexFriends/status/923868439403515904
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Leon said:

    It is surely bollocks It gives Putin a casus belli for WW3 and certainly the razing of Ukraine. This is exactly what we do not need, over-excited europhile Remainer twats saying Whoah look the EU is now attacking the Russian army! Go Brussels!
    The EU? Let’s all be clear - the EU is bankrolling stuff (and very welcome that is too) but all the military effort is NATO. NATO has never looked more relevant, not least because it includes potent non-EU nations like us.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited February 2022
    That 19 year old interview on Newsnight is devastating. If not for a few hundred miles of difference in birth that'd be my sister lamenting my probable death.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    We hear rumour of Russian murder squads spirited into Kyiv with a mission to kill Strictly Come Playing the Piano Bear and others of influence there.
    Have the Ukrainians reciprocated with team(s) to decapitate the Russian government?
  • Putin's Nazi "Nazi" hunter Utkin, appears to mean Ducky

    Утк is Russian for Duck
    It does.
  • Cookie said:

    It's utterly awe inspiring.
    The bravery of these people.
    For two years, we in the west have been sacrificing liberty for safety. All for arguably good reasons, but not very invogorating to the spirit. And now we see this - tremendous personal risks taken in the name of liberty. Because liberty is worth risking all for.
    This is not just a foundation legend for Ukraine, this is a foundation myth for the west. Since the end of history in 1989 we have prevaricated aout what we stand for; well, now we know. This. Or rather, not what the alternative to this is. Not Vlad.
    I almost no longer dare to look at the news; surely Kyiv can't still stand? Surely Ukraine must have fallen? Yet it has not; this amazing stand is still going on.
    Amazingly, as u say, at the point where the West seemed to have finally just thrown the towel in as far as defending any kind of set of values, Ukr is showing the way. We may have no idea what we believe in but we know what we don't believe in.

    Hopefully enough GOP voters will see all this and pause and think whether they really want a Putin-lover back in the WH or whether they want a democracy.

    This war is appalling. But there is light.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Possible next PM, Hunt, interviewing well on Newsnight.

    He's as much chance of being the next PM as I do. In fairness you can get odds on him though.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678
    edited February 2022
    Chameleon said:

    Unlike some of the more learned members here, I was not alive and creating memories in the 80s. How does this compare? I assume that it's a decent few steps below, but have no real yardstick.

    The 80s seemed pretty peaceful, if I remember correctly. Vietnam was over, Yugoslavia hadn't fallen apart yet, and the Cold War had been around so long that not many people thought it would turn hot. The 60s were the scary years, which seemed to have a possibility of global nuclear war. Listen to Barry McGuire's Eve of Destruction on YouTube for the flavour (1965), when the danger seemed more acute. On the other hand, there wasn't much actual fighting anywhere close, and without social media it was less immediately visible than what's happening now.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1498272842554687489

    "Reservists and militias are setting up checkpoints every few miles between Odessa and Kyiv." [Video attached]

    We've seen similar elsewhere, with unarmed townspeople stepping in front of tanks to protect their country but a lot of brave, underarmed Ukrainians will die for their country over the next week. The biggest Ukrainian victory over the past week has been on the morale front. The Russians are reeling (having been told that they were going to be welcomed as heroes), while the civilians feel patriotism like never before.

    I worry that food will start to be a problem in a few places, and that will test the unity of the Ukrainian people.

    Obviously sending weapons to Ukraine is important, but we have to also think about food, and the problem of food distribution during a war is a hard one.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,555
    British Ex-General on Newsnight saying that over the next few days a decision will need to be made by the west whether to stop the carpet bombing of Kyiv if Russia goes ahead with it. This would be likely to be driven by public opinion.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    kle4 said:

    He's as much chance of being the next PM as I do. In fairness you can get odds on him though.
    I can see why one would think he might be - he did come second after all - but you’re right, it won’t be him.

    So what’s your first act in power going to be?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.

    What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
    He is a right wing autocrat in his political views and apologizes for right wing autocratic in positions of power.
  • Chameleon said:
    Not sure what that shows?
  • That cast list constitutes the dinner party from hell.
    Galloway, Farage, Hitchens, Carlson and Liddle, all creatures that some PBers have made excuses for in various contexts over the years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.

    What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
    That they shouldn't have been allowed to join in the first place, he was clear on that. Why he feels that negates treaty obligations I dont know.

    Though until this week I'd have estimated a similar chance of NATO acting. More confident now, though not if Trump wins.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    That cast list constitutes the dinner party from hell.
    People that despise the democratic, pluralistic West.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Part of me wonders whether it would be better for the Ukrainians to surrender if the bombing gets really severe. Then wait for the Russian economy to collapse.
  • Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.

    From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    @MuhammadLila
    BREAKING: Russia is making preparations to withdraw its diplomats from Canada.

    Not some diplomats — all of them.

    Full diplomatic withdrawal from several other western nations will likely also take place.


    https://twitter.com/MuhammadLila/status/1498412412357300239
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835

    The 80s seemed pretty peaceful, if I remember correctly. Vietnam was over, Yugoslavia hadn't fallen apart yet, the the Cold War had been around so long that not many people thought it would turn hot. The 60s were the scary years, which seemed to have a possibility of global nuclear war. Listen to Barry McGuire's Eve of Destruction on YouTube for the flavour (1965), when the danger seemed more acute. On the other hand, there wasn't much actual fighting anywhere close, and without social media it was less immediately visible than what's happening now.
    My memory of growingup in the early 1980s was that nuclear war always felt an existential threat. What children perceive, of course, isn't necessarily what is true but from the history I have subsequently learned I think there was the potential in the early 80s for the cold war to get hot - both sides, I think, had some who thought that it might be imperative to strike first, because if we're thinking like this then they must be too. Happily it didn't come to pass and the world felt a much safer place after 1985 when Gorbachev came to power, and safer again after 1989 when the Eastern Bloc disintegrated. I'd say the period between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the bombing of the twin towers has been the safest the west has ever felt.
  • Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.

    From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.

    Hunt will never be voted leader of the Conservative party. Too comfortable with Remain.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681

    Yes, it would open the door to missile strikes on the Polish airbases. Unlikely.
    The detailed argument I heard via a specialist the other day wrt No Fly Zone was that it would also pull in long-range AA missiles which are based in Russia, which would mean that those would then have to be attacked to protect the missions, and so into a spiral of escalation.
  • Another European nation that had previously rejected sending lethal aid to Ukraine has reversed course. Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Monday that the country, which borders Russia to the northwest, will ship 2,500 assault rifles, 1,500 anti-tank weapons, along with food rations, helmets and body armor, to Ukraine.

    NY Times

    ===


    Go Sanna.

    Go Finland.

    Must be particularly worrying for any long term strategists left in Putin's madhouse that this is Finland.

  • Hunt will never be voted leader of the Conservative party. Too comfortable with Remain.
    Also too conservative, too competent and insufficiently corrupt.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Not sure what that shows?
    GORDO15 is a 707 capable of directing the US Nuclear arsenal as a command and control centre. The other planes are refuelers. Basically a drill on what to do if there's nuke strikes on mainland US.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    I'm team Camus on this one.

    To be avoided like The Plague.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    HYUFD said:

    France has second ballot not FPTP elections so provided one of them still comes second to Macron it matters little
    It forces a diversity of voices into the election, which reduces their freedom of movement and increases mutual criticism and gaffes. For example, Pécresse would never have got herself into trouble over the "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory without Zemmour's presence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    EPG said:

    It forces a diversity of voices into the election, which reduces their freedom of movement and increases mutual criticism and gaffes. For example, Pécresse would never have got herself into trouble over the "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory without Zemmour's presence.
    Pecresse would never have a chance of making the runoff ahead of Le Pen without Zemmour's presence either
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681
    edited February 2022
    philiph said:

    We hear rumour of Russian murder squads spirited into Kyiv with a mission to kill Strictly Come Playing the Piano Bear and others of influence there.
    Have the Ukrainians reciprocated with team(s) to decapitate the Russian government?

    That is what they did to the President of Afghanistan when they moved in in 1979 - just murdered him.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Afghan_War

    Ironically the one they killed was the General Secretary of the Communist Party in Afghanistan, who had been Deputy but had himself killed the previous General Secretary of the Communist party to become the boss.

    It's like Klingons.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678

    Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.

    What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
    Agreed. Unlike most of what we write here, I think that any speculation that we wouldn't support NATO countries is actually dangerous. If that starts floating around social media and the wrong people in Russia give it any credibility, it's the sort of thing that leads to *accidental* wars.
  • Galloway, Farage, Hitchens, Carlson and Liddle, all creatures that some PBers have made excuses for in various contexts over the years.
    I can say with absolute certainty I have nothing but disgust for that lot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.

    From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.

    Most parties which go into opposition elect a non centrist Leader of the Opposition.

    Thatcher over Heath in 1975, Foot over Healey in 1980, Hague over Clarke in 1997, Ed Miliband over David Miliband in 2010 etc
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited February 2022
    Some of them can't help themselves.....Long #FBPE.....

    Look, I really didn’t want to bring Brexit into this and I have refrained from doing so until now, but the allegedly ponderous and indecisive EU is now unifying and acting, while UK ministers are not even in the room. Instead they are inviting Ukrainians to pick fruit.
    https://twitter.com/John_Cotter/status/1498020761289867273

    Apart from all the weapons we’ve been sending them for weeks? You forgot to mention that for some reason.
    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1498055276032937985

    And two months of US and UK literally in an array of rooms in the EU, giving intelligence briefings. Not believed by the EU, but now vindicated.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1498432471653883911
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Agreed. Unlike most of what we write here, I think that any speculation that we wouldn't support NATO countries is actually dangerous. If that starts floating around social media and the wrong people in Russia give it any credibility, it's the sort of thing that leads to *accidental* wars.
    I just can't see UK politicians committing to sending UK soldiers to die over the Baltics though. The average UK man does not differentiate too much between Lviv and Vilnius.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    Look, I'm supposed to be the limp defeatist wet lettuce, as a hand-wringing lefty, but I'm 100% convinced that we'd stand by Poland and the Baltic States, and I wouldn't have it any other way.

    What's your excuse for giving up on Eastern Europe?
    The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.

    Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.

    NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    edited February 2022

    This was the biggest decision of Putin's life and took months of planning, involving reducing Russia's defences in the far-east and pulling in forces from every available source for a massive mobilisation. Do you really think he told his planners to use the B-team, or is it more likely that we're seeing the limits of their capabilities?
    You might be right, BUT it would be astonishing if Russia's conventional forces transpired to be so weak that they couldn't deal with what is a very determined but fundamentally quite feeble power like Ukraine.

    I think we're still at the stage where we have to assume that this is the product of, yes, a certain degree of ineptitude in some of the Russian forces sent into Ukraine, not least conscript units who really don't want to be there, but also poor planning as a result of a fundamental underestimation of the willingness and ability of the Ukrainians to stand their ground. Having been disabused of the notion that it would be welcomed with garlands of flowers, you've got to think that the Russian army will call on a lot more firepower and attempt to beat the defenders into submission, with a good chance of success. We have already seen the Russians resorting to heavy rocket barrages, the use of cluster munitions and perhaps worse (the Ukrainians have claimed that the Russians have begun to use thermobaric weapons.) I think we need to steel ourselves for an awful lot more of that sort of thing.

    Give it another week or two. If the Ukrainians are still launching successful drone strikes, picking off armoured columns with light infantry and Kyiv is not, at a minimum, completely encircled by that point, then we can begin to talk about the possibility of a humiliating stalemate for the Kremlin.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    What is the possibility for Russians to use sabotage to take down their own economy?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I'm thinking primarily about tech. Perhaps a general strike?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    Chameleon said:

    I just can't see UK politicians committing to sending UK soldiers to die over the Baltics though. The average UK man does not differentiate too much between Lviv and Vilnius.
    We have sent troops to the Baltics, though.

    If the Russians invade, they will die.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.

    Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.

    NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
    You sound more and more like a Putin apolgist as is Farage
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Chameleon said:

    I just can't see UK politicians committing to sending UK soldiers to die over the Baltics though. The average UK man does not differentiate too much between Lviv and Vilnius.
    Too late. The UK leads the NATO battle group in Estonia IIRC.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Chameleon said:

    I just can't see UK politicians committing to sending UK soldiers to die over the Baltics though. The average UK man does not differentiate too much between Lviv and Vilnius.
    This is part of why we have trip wire forces there. Makes an attack on them literally an attack on us, reassuring them and stiffening our own resolve come the day.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Chameleon said:

    I just can't see UK politicians committing to sending UK soldiers to die over the Baltics though. The average UK man does not differentiate too much between Lviv and Vilnius.
    I thought we had troops there now?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    The 80s seemed pretty peaceful, if I remember correctly. Vietnam was over, Yugoslavia hadn't fallen apart yet, and the Cold War had been around so long that not many people thought it would turn hot. The 60s were the scary years, which seemed to have a possibility of global nuclear war. Listen to Barry McGuire's Eve of Destruction on YouTube for the flavour (1965), when the danger seemed more acute. On the other hand, there wasn't much actual fighting anywhere close, and without social media it was less immediately visible than what's happening now.
    Don't you remember the CND marches, Greenham Common protests and German equivalent? Not to mention El Salvador, Nicaragua, Iran Iraq war, Soviets in Afghanistan, Cuba in Angola, wars in Mozambique etc? There were plenty of hot wars going on, just mostly via proxies. Remember Protect and Survive, Threads, When the Wind Blows, 99 Red Baloons?

    The spectre of nuclear war was a very real thing in my youth, and a backdrop to the hedonism of the Eighties.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297

    Hunt would be a good PM and I'd consider voting for a party led by him. Which is why he won't win of course.

    From opposition he has a good chance I reckon.

    What do you find attractive about Hunt, politically speaking?

  • Shashank Joshi
    @shashj
    ·
    1h
    “Finnish political parties will gather on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s attack on Ukraine and Finland’s role in Europe’s new power balance. Finland’s potential NATO membership will also be on the table, Prime Minister Sanna Marin told reporters Monday.”
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681
    edited February 2022

    Galloway, Farage, Hitchens, Carlson and Liddle, all creatures that some PBers have made excuses for in various contexts over the years.
    Who's Carlson?

    Oh is it Tucker?

    (Like Grange Hill)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    We should have a list of prominent individuals who are known to have had close contact with Vladimir Putin. Give them all the chance to come out and publicly condemn the war. Or they will face sanctions? Is the reason for the lack of action on oligarchs legal?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    HYUFD said:

    The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.

    Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.

    NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
    One of the reasons WWII came about is that Hitler became used to Britain and France rolling over and not standing by their previous commitments. At the beginning, when he abrogated Versailles by sending the German Army into the Rhineland, he was worried we would force him to back down, but when we declared war on him over Poland he was surprised, because he'd learnt by our earlier actions not to take our commitments seriously.

    If we abandon Eastern Europe to Russia it will teach Russia the lesson that we can be bullied and that we will not stand up for our allies, or our interests. So why would they think we would start to do so when they start to bully us in Western Europe? It would actually make WWIII more likely as a result.
  • pigeon said:

    Too late. The UK leads the NATO battle group in Estonia IIRC.
    Indeed Boris is travelling to Poland and Estonia tomorrow as a show of support for our troops
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264


    Shashank Joshi @shashj
    “Finnish political parties will gather on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s attack on Ukraine and Finland’s role in Europe’s new power balance. Finland’s potential NATO membership will also be on the table, Prime Minister Sanna Marin told reporters Monday.”

    You'd have to be stupid to say no to NATO at this point. Get under any nuclear umbrella you can.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    HYUFD said:

    The fact it would lead to World War 3 and potential nuclear war.

    Given the choice between a return to the Cold War or WW3, there is no guarantee western leaders will not settle for the former.

    NATO after all was originally just set up to defend western Europe from the USSR
    Do you still wear short trousers because you wore them 40 or however many years ago?
    Things and circumstances in life change and develop.
    Our world isn't a boring existence where every day year and decade repeat hustory as if set in stone or ice.
    In your world we would still be caveman without the wheel.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    Chameleon said:

    Unlike some of the more learned members here, I was not alive and creating memories in the 80s. How does this compare? I assume that it's a decent few steps below, but have no real yardstick.

    People were worried about nuclear attacks in the first half of the 80s, but the second half of the decade and most of the 90s were very relaxed and happy by comparison with most other periods.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited February 2022

    We should have a list of prominent individuals who are known to have had close contact with Vladimir Putin. Give them all the chance to come out and publicly condemn the war. Or they will face sanctions? Is the reason for the lack of action on oligarchs legal?

    I believe so. Each one can and will be challenged in court so must be done right. They said, one would hope the right people could be placed in a room and given coffee until it’s done.
  • MattW said:

    Who's Carlson?

    A right Trumpian tucker.
  • I tagged along to see the work of the RAF, keeping us safe in the skies during this unfolding crisis. NATO air patrols have been significantly stepped up in Eastern Europe since the Ukraine invasion 🇺🇦 🎥

    https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1498438705048137730
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    Andy_JS said:

    What do you find attractive about Hunt, politically speaking?
    Hunt was the only capable Foreign Secretary of recent Times.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited February 2022
    pigeon said:

    Too late. The UK leads the NATO battle group in Estonia IIRC.
    [Addressing both Biggles, rcs, Pigeon et al]. Yep the tripwire is a good idea, especially in Estonia which is by far the best prepared Baltic nation to slow Russia. But I feel that the scars may just be too deep from ME adventures. Certainly given our pitiful deployable power we'd have to resort to conscripts petty quickly, which would be devastating to public morale.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Agreed. Unlike most of what we write here, I think that any speculation that we wouldn't support NATO countries is actually dangerous. If that starts floating around social media and the wrong people in Russia give it any credibility, it's the sort of thing that leads to *accidental* wars.
    I appreciate that sentiment, but OTOH I'm not at all sure that randoms mouthing off on PB will make any more difference to anything than randoms mouthing off on Twitter.

    Unless we really are vastly more influential than I realised, in which case why haven't I been headhunted for a lucrative position in a policy think tank?

    Feeling quite disappointed now TBH.
  • Andy_JS said:

    People were worried about nuclear attacks in the first half of the 80s, but the second half of the decade and most of the 90s were very relaxed and happy by comparison with most other periods.
    In 1962 my wife and I lived in daily fear of a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis

    It was horrible then and is today
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    The 80s seemed pretty peaceful, if I remember correctly. Vietnam was over, Yugoslavia hadn't fallen apart yet, and the Cold War had been around so long that not many people thought it would turn hot. The 60s were the scary years, which seemed to have a possibility of global nuclear war. Listen to Barry McGuire's Eve of Destruction on YouTube for the flavour (1965), when the danger seemed more acute. On the other hand, there wasn't much actual fighting anywhere close, and without social media it was less immediately visible than what's happening now.
    Or you could watch Threads on Britbox,.pick up the copy of When the Wind Blows bought for you by a kindly mother because it was that Raymond Briggs, and relive every night of your early 80s childhood convinced you weren't going to make it to your teens. That was the 80s for me.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Foxy said:

    Hunt was the only capable Foreign Secretary of recent Times.
    Hague? Straw? Riflkind?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?
  • Foxy said:

    Don't you remember the CND marches, Greenham Common protests and German equivalent? Not to mention El Salvador, Nicaragua, Iran Iraq war, Soviets in Afghanistan, Cuba in Angola, wars in Mozambique etc? There were plenty of hot wars going on, just mostly via proxies. Remember Protect and Survive, Threads, When the Wind Blows, 99 Red Baloons?

    The spectre of nuclear war was a very real thing in my youth, and a backdrop to the hedonism of the Eighties.
    I had friends working in Frankfurt and the common perception of the Red Army sweeping across West Germany was a matter of not "if?" but "when?".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    biggles said:

    Hague? Straw? Riflkind?
    Exactly...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    One of the reasons WWII came about is that Hitler became used to Britain and France rolling over and not standing by their previous commitments. At the beginning, when he abrogated Versailles by sending the German Army into the Rhineland, he was worried we would force him to back down, but when we declared war on him over Poland he was surprised, because he'd learnt by our earlier actions not to take our commitments seriously.

    If we abandon Eastern Europe to Russia it will teach Russia the lesson that we can be bullied and that we will not stand up for our allies, or our interests. So why would they think we would start to do so when they start to bully us in Western Europe? It would actually make WWIII more likely as a result.
    As Western Europe is 'we' ie France, Germany and the UK. Eastern Europe is not. I am not saying if Russia invaded Eastern Europe NATO would not go to War, most of those nations are now in NATO after all.

    However there is still a difference between fighting for other countries against a nuclear armed military superpower which just 4 decades ago were under Russian control anyway and fighting for your own country.

    Plus when we went to war with Hitler over his invasion of Poland he did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited February 2022

    In 1962 my wife and I lived in daily fear of a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis

    It was horrible then and is today
    While I wasn’t alive then, I did study the Cuban missile crisis in university.

    I think the current situation is actually more serious than back then.

    Cool heads are required.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Sean_F said:

    Thankfully, and to my surprise, it seems that Western leaders are made of sterner stuff than you are. I had never had you marked down as an appeaser.
    He only supports appeasing right-wing autocrats, because that's his favoured style of government, as Aslan pointed out earlier. Putin's style of democracy is just enough democracy for him.

    He's a threat to British democracy and he'd be a traitor in the right circumstances. You can easily imagine him enthusiastically supporting a puppet King Andrew installed by a triumphant Putin. Absolute disgrace.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,166
    Good to see the RAF nearly back home to Cyprus.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Foxy said:

    Exactly...
    Oh, yes, sorry. As soon as I wrote that it occurred to me that Hague LEFT office almost ten years ago. Christ.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    The 80s seemed pretty peaceful, if I remember correctly. Vietnam was over, Yugoslavia hadn't fallen apart yet, and the Cold War had been around so long that not many people thought it would turn hot. The 60s were the scary years, which seemed to have a possibility of global nuclear war. Listen to Barry McGuire's Eve of Destruction on YouTube for the flavour (1965), when the danger seemed more acute. On the other hand, there wasn't much actual fighting anywhere close, and without social media it was less immediately visible than what's happening now.
    Thanks Nick, my parents' generation were a bit younger than me in the '60s, with my remaining grandparents' memories understandably centring around the evacuation in WW2 so I have very limited connection to then. It's just a massive shift for those who have grown up in a western-centric relatively stable era.

    @mwadams, did that a few months before the pandemic with my then uni housemates. Was not a pleasant experience.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    @BBCNewsnight
    "It does mean war with Russia..."

    General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command, says continued Russian aggression may result in no fly zones, conceding that this could mean war with Russia


    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1498437262727647237
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    People like HYUFD hate me, and most of the British population, for voting the wrong way. He'd sell us all out in an instant.
  • HYUFD said:

    As Western Europe is 'we' ie France, Germany and the UK. Eastern Europe is not. I am not saying if Russia invaded Eastern Europe NATO would not go to War, most of those nations are now in NATO after all.

    However there is still a difference between fighting for other countries against a nuclear armed military superpower which just 4 decades ago were under Russian control anyway and fighting for your own country.

    Plus when we went to war with Hitler over his invasion of Poland he did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin.
    You are a Putin apologist but then you are not alone
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1498434791364042754

    "And here’s where it’s beginning to trickle (or rather, pour) down on average Russians: As of tomorrow, Sberbank is raising mortgage rates on homes (both finished and under construction) by 7.5% to 18.6%.

    This is Putin’s new economy. This will be his legacy."
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    One of the reasons WWII came about is that Hitler became used to Britain and France rolling over and not standing by their previous commitments. At the beginning, when he abrogated Versailles by sending the German Army into the Rhineland, he was worried we would force him to back down, but when we declared war on him over Poland he was surprised, because he'd learnt by our earlier actions not to take our commitments seriously.

    If we abandon Eastern Europe to Russia it will teach Russia the lesson that we can be bullied and that we will not stand up for our allies, or our interests. So why would they think we would start to do so when they start to bully us in Western Europe? It would actually make WWIII more likely as a result.
    I agree with HY about the necessity of avoiding become directly embroiled in Ukraine, but I also agree with practically everyone else about the need to draw a line in the sand over the NATO alliance. It's a key reason why this show of disgust over Ukraine and the imposition of sweeping sanctions now is so important.

    It will hopefully discourage Mad Vlad from making more territorial demands, this time by shedding crocodile tears over oppressed Russians in the Baltic States.

    I've entertained the possibility of building a physical wall right across the continent of Europe when the carve up (hopefully with Ukraine on our side of it) is eventually done, and I know that's probably wildly impractical but some kind of obvious barrier would serve an important purpose. To demonstrate to the Russians the limits of their power that we will accept and respect - but also to say thus far and no further. Our side is Europe and they can keep their filthy hands off it. Permanently.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited February 2022
    Sean_F said:

    Thankfully, and to my surprise, it seems that Western leaders are made of sterner stuff than you are. I had never had you marked down as an appeaser.
    Are they? I am certainly not 100% certain Biden, Macron and Johnson would go to war with Russia even if Putin went beyond Ukraine and invaded Poland and the Baltic States.

    If he invaded France and Germany they would have no choice but to go to war but beyond that you cannot be certain.

    I also doubt Biden would launch a nuclear weapon against Russia himself unless a US city was attacked. The same goes for Boris unless London was attacked or Macron unless Paris was attacked
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    HYUFD said:

    As Western Europe is 'we' ie France, Germany and the UK. Eastern Europe is not. I am not saying if Russia invaded Eastern Europe NATO would not go to War, most of those nations are now in NATO after all.

    However there is still a difference between fighting for other countries against a nuclear armed military superpower which just 4 decades ago were under Russian control anyway and fighting for your own country.

    Plus when we went to war with Hitler over his invasion of Poland he did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin.
    “[Countries which] just 4 decades ago were under Russian control anyway”.

    Oh Christ…. Yeah, I hope you never get near power.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    rcs1000 said:

    I've always found her rather attractive.
    Public schoolboys and their mother complexes
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    HYUFD said:

    As Western Europe is 'we' ie France, Germany and the UK. Eastern Europe is not. I am not saying if Russia invaded Eastern Europe NATO would not go to War, most of those nations are now in NATO after all.

    However there is still a difference between fighting for other countries against a nuclear armed military superpower which just 4 decades ago were under Russian control anyway and fighting for your own country.

    Plus when we went to war with Hitler over his invasion of Poland he did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin.
    In Scotland 40 years is at least 3 generations.
    Having nuclear weapons pointed at us isn't something that we stop for.
    I would rather be glass than live in a world of tyranny, subjugation, torture and no freedom.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    edited February 2022
    ping said:

    While I wasn’t alive then, I did study the Cuban missile crisis in university.

    I think the current situation is actually more serious than back then.

    Cool heads are required.
    To be fair we didn’t think so and had many a disturbing night's sleep as our imagination ran riot

    It was so real that today's threats stir our memories of that time

  • Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    1h
    The world is currently and frighteningly locked in a battle between democracy and authoritarianism.

    Which side are you on?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    I thin we need to get real here. Russia's economy is about to sink without trace. Would we need too many forces in the Baltics or would we just destroy the Russians in the air?

    It sounds like Russia has recently been run on the basis of being optimised for maximum corruption. One possible future is that they respond to this humiliation by prioritising other things than corruption. Things like having enough supplies for their armed forces. That could make the Russian armed forces a lot more effective. And they have a few decades of revenue from selling gas to China to make use of.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    ping said:

    While I wasn’t alive then, I did study the Cuban missile crisis in university.

    I think the current situation is actually more serious than back then.

    Cool heads are required.
    From the nuclear armagedon perspective this current situation is one of the top 3 most risky period since nuclear war became possible. It doesn't take much miscalculation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Chameleon said:

    You'd have to be stupid to say no to NATO at this point. Get under any nuclear umbrella you can.
    It seems a pretty sound calculation. If Russia will invade in part because of the prospect of NATO membership (even an unlikely prospect to say the least), then you may as well join up - Russia would be furious, but what are they going to do, invade? As they have just demonstrated they might well do if you lack membership?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited February 2022

    You are a Putin apologist but then you are not alone
    That’s not fair, BigG.

    Hyufd’s views are pretty mainstream in defence circles. As I said, cool heads and cold, hard, rational logic has to be applied in this situation, to protect our interests.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Are they? I am certainly not 100% certain Biden, Macron and Johnson would go to war with Russia even if Putin went beyond Ukraine and invaded Poland and the Baltic States.

    If he invaded France and Germany they would have no choice but to go to war but beyond that you cannot be certain.

    I also doubt Biden would launch a nuclear weapon against Russia himself unless a US city was attacked. The same goes for Boris unless London was attacked or Macron unless Paris was attacked
    You don’t understand any of this. On Eastern Europe - see above re: tripwires and existing presence. On a nuclear exchange, in so far as a leader makes that choice, it’s based on seeing that a launch has happened but not knowing the target (only our sub captains, after the fact, would get to strike with hindsight).
This discussion has been closed.