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The Ukranian Crisis – Day 5 – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,128
    kinabalu said:

    Oh do stop it. It was my one and only follow-up and merely an explanation of why I don't rate her. Attributing it to sexism is *such* a cheap shot.
    It isn't, really. If the situation was reversed, it's exactly what you would be calling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,599
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    ‼️Extraordinary jump for @EmmanuelMacron & downward lurch for Putin-apologist Eric Zemmour in IFOP daily tracking poll today. Macron goes up by 2 points since last poll on Friday to reach 28% of first round support, his highest ever in this poll 1/2 https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1498332689363095558/photo/1

    Le Pen second on 16%, Zemmour still third on 14%, Pecresse 4th on 13%, Melenchon 5th on 10.5%.

    Runoff: Macron 56.5% Le Pen 43.5%. Macron 59.5% Pecresse 40.5%. Macron 64% Zemmour 36%.
    https://twitter.com/agindre/status/1498334627919974405?s=20&t=HR0OV3qeyXrJ5GAJdGChIg
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596
    edited February 2022
    Omnium said:

    Just had a little fun spamming the Russian embassy email links.

    I think I might do that daily.

    If you go up Highgate West Hill, by Highgate Ponds, you will find about half way up the entrance to the Russian Trade Delegation to the UK.

    I have been past many times but it never seems to be open. Maybe I will try again when I am nearby later this week. I have some trade I would like to do with them.

    Perhaps others might like to do likewise.

    Btw the number is 020 8340 1907 if you want to order something by phone


    http://playfoursquare.s3.amazonaws.com/pix/g7elXuowOICp6D8TvYnvqrFO9d7F3eRWOof_a3PEPNc.jpg
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:
    Does it include free movement? May be worth hopping on the next available flight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,016
    Pulpstar said:

    Putin will keep agreeing to talks because it makes him look reasonable via RT to his domestic audience.
    His demands are a complete non starter though, so right now those talks aren't going to get anywhere - not even to mention the fact he (I think) isn't bringing up Donbass as the Ukrainians will need to negotiate separately with those individuals.
    Of course.
    "They won't agree to our ceasefire conditions because they want to keep their nazis" etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,669
    Chameleon said:

    Has anyone posited the theory that Putin's desk is just a modern day Pinocchio's nose?


    Did you know that each time Putin lies, his desk grows a little longer?
    https://twitter.com/Loctier/status/1498335983103881216/photo/1
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    Who says?

    It is tempting to write Putin off as mad, or insatiable, or Hitler, but those don’t help the overall analysis of how we should respond to minimise bloodshed.
    There's a definite change in Putin's behaviour between now and pre-pandemic.

    I don't know why, there are loads of theories, but the Putin of 2014 or 2019 would not have taken such a reckless gamble.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Anti Semitism is only immoral to Jews ie in religious terms as it is in opposition to the Torah and also to the Christian morality of love thy neighbour as set out in the New Testament.

    There is nothing automatically immoral about anti Semitism beyond that religious morality if a majority of the public become anti Semitic. Indeed in parts of the Arab world today anti Semitism is rife unfortunately, as it is in parts of the far left
    you are quite mad, you realise?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,422
    Deleted
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,128
    There's a tiny memorial to the Holodomor at the base of Calton Hill in Edinburgh. Must have been past it scores of times before I first stopped to read it.

    Given the attention other genocides get, it seems rather neglected. Perhaps no longer.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holodomor_Edinburgh_2019.jpg
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,599
    alex_ said:

    Does it include free movement? May be worth hopping on the next available flight.
    Only for dead sheep
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    biggles said:

    Nothing to do with us whether Ukraine wants to be neutral or renounce it’s claim Crimea on. However it is our job to support Ukraine in not agreeing to do such things under duress with a gun to its head.
    Yes, they may well agree things now that stirred up westerners dont like but they need to decide what they think best.

    I am confused how they could commit to neutrality even if they conceded it - not being in NATO hasnt prevented support even if it doesn't mean full backing and aspiration to join the EU one day seems to remain.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    FF43 said:

    I agree.

    Putin will really hate Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians now because they have made a fool of him. The destruction of Ukrainian cities will be personal.
    The problem for others in the regime is that Putin has just destroyed all of the progress since 1998 and burned every bridge. Dr Evil is not a good look for Putin, and I suspect that some big changes are coming in Moscow.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    If you go up Highgate West Hill, by Highgate Ponds, you will find about half way up the entrance to the Russian Trade Delegation to the UK.

    I have been past many times but it never seems to be open. Maybe I will try again when I am nearby later this week. I have some trade I would like to do with them.

    Perhaps others might like to do likewise.

    Btw the number is 020 8340 1907 if you want to order something by phone


    http://playfoursquare.s3.amazonaws.com/pix/g7elXuowOICp6D8TvYnvqrFO9d7F3eRWOof_a3PEPNc.jpg
    Thanks.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    I don’t think the UK’s really had a consequential FS since Robin Cook. British PMs have tended to be their own FS.

    It may be time for a new kind of FS, maybe from the Lords, someone with long diplomatic experience.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    biggles said:

    Ah, I get it now. You don’t believe any of this guff you just write it for fun. Fair play.
    He means every word of it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723

    Hospital services?
    Fair point, yes - also, potentially, sixth form education.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    Cicero said:

    FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,

    My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.

    BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.

    A very hopeful and encouraging post. From much further away, that's my kind of feeling today, too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,599

    You really do have so much more in common with Jeremy Corbyn than you realise. Two peas in a pod!
    No, I am not an anti Semite.

    However if Corbyn had won a majority at the last general election then the majority of the British population would have shifted to a more anti Semitic morality based on the views of some of Corbyn's supporters
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347

    How do you do first past the post when there are no posts left standing?
    As anyone who played footy at school can attest to can make a post out of anything - bags, rubble, even your friends....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited February 2022
    Cookie said:

    Fair point, yes - also, potentially, sixth form education.
    In that case, perhaps my fantasy stands in the sense that Lytham etc do use Blackpool’s services and, rightly, should both vote for and pay for them.

    Edit: as far as I can tell, Fylde is in Blackpool’s Travel To Work Area, so yeh they can bloody well suck it up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,128
    FF43 said:

    I agree.

    Putin will really hate Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians now because they have made a fool of him. The destruction of Ukrainian cities will be personal.
    In addition, the attack on Ukraine is not the first evil thing Putin's regime has done. It is one of a series of attacks they have committed, including two on our shores.

    I'd find it hard to accept any assurances from Putin. If I were to shake his hand, I'd check the number of fingers I had afterwards.

    Sadly, for peace to happen, Putin has to go. But in going, he might start a wider war. And his replacement might be worse.

    But Putin really has to go. The wider world cannot trust any deal they make with him or his regime.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,599

    I don’t think the UK’s really had a consequential FS since Robin Cook. British PMs have tended to be their own FS.

    It may be time for a new kind of FS, maybe from the Lords, someone with long diplomatic experience.

    Cook got on quite well with Putin, indeed Putin apparently laughed at one of his own jokes.

    Hunt again or Tugendhadt would be good Foreign Secretaries, the Labour alternative is David Lammy
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,820
    Cicero said:

    FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,

    My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.

    BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.

    That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    Omnium said:

    Thanks.
    But now I need to find a massive inflated arse baloon, and Amazon agreeing to deliver it for a fiver.

    PM me with any tips.
  • Cookie said:

    Always been a mystery to me too!
    There used to be a lot of longish-distance commuters to Manchester from the Fylde (another place with a definite article) but less so nowadays.
    There's a lot of retirement there.
    Masses. St Annes is a retirement village pretty much.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098

    There's a tiny memorial to the Holodomor at the base of Calton Hill in Edinburgh. Must have been past it scores of times before I first stopped to read it.

    Given the attention other genocides get, it seems rather neglected. Perhaps no longer.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holodomor_Edinburgh_2019.jpg

    Jesus. Yes, that's rather underreported.

    7 million, christ.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    There's a tiny memorial to the Holodomor at the base of Calton Hill in Edinburgh. Must have been past it scores of times before I first stopped to read it.

    Given the attention other genocides get, it seems rather neglected. Perhaps no longer.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holodomor_Edinburgh_2019.jpg

    I don't recognise it. Do you remember which side of the hill it's on?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    On thread - I had always spelled it Ukrainian. Am I wrong? Is it Ukranian?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    HYUFD said:

    No, I am not an anti Semite.

    However if Corbyn had won a majority at the last general election then the majority of the British population would have shifted to a more anti Semitic morality based on the views of some of Corbyn's supporters
    Another ridiculous post. Do you think because Johnson won the election the majority of the British population would have shifted to a more who-gives-a-shit-about-the-truth morality?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    FF43 said:

    That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
    What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.

    Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
  • Omnium said:

    I need to really ruin a few Russian people's day. Any suggestions?

    It's not the Russians, Omnium. They are great people. It is Putin and his henchmen.

    I am currently reading my Dad's war letters home from the front in North Africa, 1940/42. He didn't hate the Germans. He respected them. He hated Hitler, and the Nazis, with a passion.

    If he could maintain the important distinction then, when Rommel's boys were literally trying to shoot his bollox off, surely we from the comfort of our homes can maintain the distinction between ordinary Russians and the pigshits that lead them?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Wow,

    This is wrong on two counts.

    Firstly, there's no windfall right now as fracking is not currently economic in the UK.

    Secondly, I have spent an awful lot of time around this industry, and holy fuck you would notice. Getting the rig into position. Drilling 24 hours a day. And then the sound of the diesel compressors getting the water pressure up. Yeah, you'd notice.
    Hmm. I have drilled maybe two dozen onshore oil wells in the UK in my career. And the local restrictions generally mean there is very little disturbance to the community. As a norm no activity that caused any level of noise is permitted between 8pm and 7am. That includes hard drilling, tripping, running casing etc. Much of the time if those operations were necessary we would just stop and circulate for the whole night (which is why we all wanted to work nightshift). Even the generators are in special sound proofed containers. On one in Kent the noise from the ventilators on the cold storage unit next door was louder than the generators. Literally. We had to get the owners to switch them off for a while so the local inspectors could measure the noise from the generators.

    This is not to support fracking as a process since personally I think it is unsuited to the densely populated UK. But noise pollution is not one of the issues.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    Cookie said:

    On thread - I had always spelled it Ukrainian. Am I wrong? Is it Ukranian?

    It is spelt "FuckYouRussianWarship", I believe.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    HYUFD said:

    Cook got on quite well with Putin, indeed Putin apparently laughed at one of his own jokes.

    Hunt again or Tugendhadt would be good Foreign Secretaries, the Labour alternative is David Lammy
    Lammy is nothing like his former self. He's massively improved.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886

    Thanks.

    In my geeky local govt re-org fantasy, I’d provisionally bundled the Fylde (and Poulton-le-Fylde from the Wyre) into a Blackpool metro.

    I’m guessing it would cause uproar.
    Particularly as a lot of it looks towards Preston rather than the donkeylashers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,532
    Cicero said:

    The problem for others in the regime is that Putin has just destroyed all of the progress since 1998 and burned every bridge. Dr Evil is not a good look for Putin, and I suspect that some big changes are coming in Moscow.
    Putin's power ultimately rests on nothing but fear. Giving concessions just helps him to maintain the illusion and continue to intimidate others externally as well as internally. Ukraine has drawn a line in the sand, and we should follow their example.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    dixiedean said:

    Particularly as a lot of it looks towards Preston rather than the donkeylashers.
    Apparently not, according to the 2011 TTWAs, which admittedly need to be updated.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    It's not the Russians, Omnium. They are great people. It is Putin and his henchmen.

    I am currently reading my Dad's war letters home from the front in North Africa, 1940/42. He didn't hate the Germans. He respected them. He hated Hitler, and the Nazis, with a passion.

    If he could maintain the important distinction then, when Rommel's boys were literally trying to shoot his bollox off, surely we from the comfort of our homes can maintain the distinction between ordinary Russians and the pigshits that lead them?
    I've no ill-will towards Russians,

    However they are collectively responsible for all their arseholeness of far too many years.

    Even if they're not then being unfair to them is the best way of ridding ourselves from Putin.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,985

    I don't recognise it. Do you remember which side of the hill it's on?
    I walked past it at lunch today. It's next to Greenside Church, just before the start of the Royal Terrace.

    Good starting line for shuttle runs up the hill.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,464
    edited February 2022

    I don’t think the UK’s really had a consequential FS since Robin Cook. British PMs have tended to be their own FS.

    It may be time for a new kind of FS, maybe from the Lords, someone with long diplomatic experience.

    From my experience in government (spanning three decades now, on and off) I think the best ministers are those who are interested in policy and know enough to challenge their officials but don't share their assumptions. So, for instance, you had perhaps our greatest foreign secretary of the last century, Bevin, who laid the groundwork for the containment of Russia after the Second World War. Or, again, our most transformative recent Chancellor, Nigel Lawson. Both had a clear set of goals they wanted to achieve, knew enough not to be overawed by their officials, but both were comfortable in, and understood, Government and how it works, and pragmatic enough to value Civil Service advice as to how best to achieve their goals.

    The current SPAD-safe seat-Lords trajectory is particularly badly suited to producing people like that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,599
    edited February 2022
    alex_ said:

    Does it include free movement? May be worth hopping on the next available flight.
    Safest places in the world in the event of a nuclear war indeed include New Zealand.

    Plus French Polynesia, Yukon in Canada, Iceland, Easter Island, Antarctica, South Africa, Tristan da Cunha and Perth and western Australia apparently

    https://www.thecoolist.com/escape-nuclear-war/

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,820
    MISTY said:

    What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.

    Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
    Sanctions to be removed once the security provisions of Minsk II are implemented ie Once Russian and proxy troops are removed. I can't see Western governments trusting Russia with 40% of its gas supplies again, nor do I suspect foreign companies will invest in Russia with the same enthusiasm. The Russian economy will still be hit.

    I also don't think Ukraine will agree to transfer Crimea to Russia. There needs to be a fudge on that. ie Russia holds onto Crimea but Crimean related sanctions remain. Both sides pretend to negotiate a permanent solution.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    MISTY said:

    What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.

    Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
    Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.

    The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited February 2022

    I don’t think the UK’s really had a consequential FS since Robin Cook. British PMs have tended to be their own FS.

    It may be time for a new kind of FS, maybe from the Lords, someone with long diplomatic experience.

    Was he a particularly consequential FS? He wasn’t FS at the time of his most memorable contribution (opposition to the Iraq war). He tried to do some stuff early on around ethical foreign policy, but ultimately Blair decided it wasn’t a part he wanted to go down.

    Could possibly make a case for Hague.
  • Labour lead reduced to 3 points. Johnson level pegging on best PM rating with Starmer at 36% each with Redfield Wilton.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    A hugely unstable, huge country of Russia, is never in the interests in the West. That's why they'll gratefully take a chance to de-escalate economically and militarily if it works out, but with NATO defences bolstered for ever.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,985
    Insane live reporting from Sky at the mo.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,128

    I don't recognise it. Do you remember which side of the hill it's on?
    I think the northern side, at the bottom of the steps as you walk towards Leith. On the right. I think. Sadly, I haven't been able to get to Edinburgh for a few years. :(
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951
    edited February 2022
    RedfieldWilton see Labour poll lead fall to 3% and big jump for Boris to tie with Starmer as best PM

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498342246038523910?t=CqmKx603QS2Pe8abgNzjqg&s=19
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    HYUFD said:

    Safest places in the world in the event of a nuclear war indeed include New Zealand.

    Plus French Polynesia, Yukon in Canada, Iceland, Easter Island, Antarctica, South Africa, Tristan da Cunha and Perth and western Australia apparently

    https://www.thecoolist.com/escape-nuclear-war/

    During the Cold War, Russia targeted New Zealand and Australia. They believed that all the anti-nuclear stuff was just a front, and anyway, why not. Multiple nukes per city - the death toll would have been most of the population.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    edited February 2022

    Masses. St Annes is a retirement village pretty much.
    I had never been to St. Annes before I had children. My day trips to the seaside as a child were to North Wales. I think my parents were maybe a bit sniffy about the Fylde coast (as if Rhyl is any less lowbrow!).
    But St. Annes is rather wonderful. Wedged between Lytham and Blackpool, it is midway between the two of them in spirit too. Fun – it has a pier, and donkeys, and inflatables on the beach, and a boating lake – but not too much fun – you wouldn’t go there for a day’s drinking. An absolutely massive beach, when the tide’s out. And even when it’s mostly in. Doktor Hotfingers (whose credentials I doubt, frankly) playing a medley of songs you hate on the promenade. If you’ve got children under 7 there are few better places you can spend a day. Getting a lump in my throat of happy nostalgia now thinking about it – not least because I don’t know if we will ever go again as a family, now the kids are older with tastes more high octane. St. Annes represents golden years I knew were golden but didn’t really grasp how quickly they would pass.
    Not that having slightly older children isn’t wonderful too, of course; not to mention considerably easier. But of, the magic of those early years. (Admittedly, realistically, magic often realised in retrospect when they were in bed and you had got through another day intact, but still.)

    Edit – a further memory of coming out of a café on the front, having just arrived in St. Annes, with my three-year-old, and seeing the beach. A note of gleeful incredulity in her voice as she took in the scene before her: “Sea – donkeys – pier – slides – it a summer holiday!”. That is St. Annes, to me.
  • FF43 said:

    I think that transition can be made quite short. There is a need for Russian gas right now because we're not there yet on renewables but within I suspect two or three years the combination of more renewables, better efficiency, more LNG supplies and storage, Europe can supply all its gas needs with existing supplies (North Sea, LNG, Algeria etc) without requiring Russia and prices will start coming down on the overall energy mix.

    So we have a gap of a couple of years. I would suggest filling it with coal, at least for energy security where you may not need to burn it at all. Cheap to store, requires little capital investment.
    It would be much easier and cleaner to just allow more gas exploration and development. Not least because even when we have completed the energy transition we are still going to need the 40% of every barrel of oil that doesn't get burned.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,128
    Pulpstar said:

    Jesus. Yes, that's rather underreported.

    7 million, christ.
    Well, some people (mostly on the left) say it wasn't a genocide. To which, like the Armenian genocide, I reply "Horseshit."

    It was a manufactured genocide. The results were foreseeable to anyone who cared.

    But yes, there have been a fair few genocides that have killed one million+.
  • RedfieldWilton see Labour poll lead fall to 3% and big jump for Boris to tie with Starmer as best PM

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498342246038523910?t=CqmKx603QS2Pe8abgNzjqg&s=19

    Bad polling for Sunak at the same time . This sort of polling is why Johnson looks so much secure now and vindicates a lot of HYUFD's analysis.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Eabhal said:

    Insane live reporting from Sky at the mo.

    ???
  • eekeek Posts: 29,557

    Hmm. I have drilled maybe two dozen onshore oil wells in the UK in my career. And the local restrictions generally mean there is very little disturbance to the community. As a norm no activity that caused any level of noise is permitted between 8pm and 7am. That includes hard drilling, tripping, running casing etc. Much of the time if those operations were necessary we would just stop and circulate for the whole night (which is why we all wanted to work nightshift). Even the generators are in special sound proofed containers. On one in Kent the noise from the ventilators on the cold storage unit next door was louder than the generators. Literally. We had to get the owners to switch them off for a while so the local inspectors could measure the noise from the generators.

    This is not to support fracking as a process since personally I think it is unsuited to the densely populated UK. But noise pollution is not one of the issues.
    I think what you highlight there is the difference in drilling between the UK where everything is done to minimise annoyance and the USA where because of the lack of a local (long-term) population everything is done to maximise profit and minimise costs.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Apple Pay and Google Pay no longer work on Moscow's metro system, leading to long queues as people fumble about for cash
    https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1498343208094478354

    This is going to cause serious issues at home for Putin I would imagine if it carries on for long.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited February 2022

    During the Cold War, Russia targeted New Zealand and Australia. They believed that all the anti-nuclear stuff was just a front, and anyway, why not. Multiple nukes per city - the death toll would have been most of the population.
    I think it was in Schlosser's excellent Command and Control that before the first arms limitation and reduction treaties, the US had run out of all conceivable targets in the USSR and Warsaw Pact countries that could be of any military or infrastructure significance, but still had lots of warheads left without a target, so they targetted every single post office in the greater Moscow area as well.
  • ???
    It is very worrying and really brave reporting by Sky including Deborah Haynes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,096
    FF43 said:

    Doable on my understanding, but eyewateringly expensive. Means filling every storage facility with top dollar LNG over the summer months to get through next winter. Good thing though is every subsequent winter will be easier.

    I think they need to get their chequebooks out for storage for next winter. Six months moratorium on Russian gas, then they can take a view on whether to switch supplies back on in the Autumn.

    As @rcs1000 says, lucky for us the invasion wasn't earlier. Thank Xi and his Olympics.
    OK. Germany has a lot of gas storage - about four months of average usage. (Or about ten weeks in Winter.)

    If Germany was the only purchaser of spot LNG cargoes in the world, then it could fill up its storage facilities to the brim by the end of the summer, and then could (expensively) ride out next winter.

    But it's a bit more complex than that.

    You see while some countries have lots of long-term LNG supply contracts (South Korea, Japan), others don't (errr... us).

    And this worked out brilliantly for the UK for a long time. You see, long-term LNG prices were around $11-12mmbtu, and spot prices were $8-9. British generators made out like banditos.

    Unfortunately, two things then happened. Firstly, the biggest source of spot LNG (US shale gas) disappeared. During the pandemic, the gas price fell, and drilling stopped. This meant the US was no longer exporting as many cargoes. Secondly, Russia began to wave their big dick around and started cutting gas supplies to Europe (with the express goal of depleting storage facilities). This meant that there was more bidding on LNG cargoes to the extent that ships bound for Asia under contract were turning round heading to Europe.

    In the short to medium term, what needs to happen is that everyone (world-wide) needs to do more coal generation. You can already see this happening in the US where the price of Powder River Basin coal has doubled. More coal generating in the US and Australia means more gas available for export. More coal generating in the UK and Europe means less need for gas. And coal production can be ramped up more easily than natural gas, often by simply adding extra shifts at open pit mines.

    European countries also need to commit to long term LNG supply contracts. And yes, that includes us in the UK. A dozen LNG projects are stalled because of a lack of willingness of European buyers to commit to decade long contracts. If Europe stepped up, we could see a lot of these come through.

    Do these, and you wean Europe off Russian gas.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    has anyone seen this.

    https://twitter.com/ParalympicsGB/status/1498342449726513158

    could Paralympics GB pull out of the winter Paralympics over this?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.

    If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
    The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
  • NHS Covid data out at 5.30pm,

    First one to forget it's three days data combined loses.
  • Have we covered this? A very interesting insight into the worldview of Putin's government, in an article written on the assumption of a very quick victory, and mistakenly published anyway when said victory didn't quite materialise:

    https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    Pulpstar said:

    Jesus. Yes, that's rather underreported.

    7 million, christ.
    Yes, @Roger was equally surprised by this last week - I think justifiably, because it's not part of our consciousness in the way that the holocaust was. It's not majored on in schools, it's not a cultural reference point. I think, personally, it ought to be rather better known. Perhaps after the current unpleasantness it might be.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,820

    I think the northern side, at the bottom of the steps as you walk towards Leith. On the right. I think. Sadly, I haven't been able to get to Edinburgh for a few years. :(
    The Ukrainian consulate is just on the other side of the road from there.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Omnium said:

    I need to really ruin a few Russian people's day. Any suggestions?

    Are you in a position to lead a counter offensive against their eastern flank from the sea?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,669
    "Mama I'm in Ukraine... We were told that they would welcome us... They call us fascists. Mama, this is so hard."

    Ukraine's UN ambassador reads out texts between a Russian soldier and his mother moments before he was killed

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1498329378907992068/video/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    rpjs said:

    I think it was in Schlosser's excellent Command and Control that before the first arms limitation and reduction treaties, the US had run out of all conceivable targets in the USSR and Warsaw Pact countries that could be of any military or infrastructure significance, but still had lots of warheads left without a target, so they targetted every single post office in the greater Moscow area as well.
    There was a telephone exchange in Moscow that seemed to be especially hated, IIRC, The US airforce missiles, bombers and the US Navy missiles were all targeting it.

    When they invented SIOP, they found out that said telephone exchange was about 200 meters from the next piece of ridiculous overkill as well.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872

    NHS Covid data out at 5.30pm,

    First one to forget it's three days data combined loses.

    {taps cage of mutant flying lawyers, gently}

    *Anyone* who uses reporting day....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    eek said:

    I think what you highlight there is the difference in drilling between the UK where everything is done to minimise annoyance and the USA where because of the lack of a local (long-term) population everything is done to maximise profit and minimise costs.
    I thought it had something to do with mineral rights being the property of the land owner?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,096
    HYUFD said:

    Anti Semitism is only immoral to Jews ie in religious terms as it is in opposition to the Torah and also to the Christian morality of love thy neighbour as set out in the New Testament.

    There is nothing automatically immoral about anti Semitism beyond that religious morality if a majority of the public become anti Semitic. Indeed in parts of the Arab world today anti Semitism is rife unfortunately, as it is in parts of the far left
    There is nothing immoral about antisemitism?

    Have you lost your mind?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    Omnium said:

    The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
    That's not realistic, nor is anything that is sold as a Russian surrender going to work. If NATO as a whole doesn't want Ukraine to join, it won't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,599
    edited February 2022

    During the Cold War, Russia targeted New Zealand and Australia. They believed that all the anti-nuclear stuff was just a front, and anyway, why not. Multiple nukes per city - the death toll would have been most of the population.
    Most of the major cities in Australia eg Sydney and Melbourne and the capital Canberra were assumed to be wiped out even on that analysis. However remember Australia is so vast most of it is well away from those population centres even if the people who live elsewhere live in less hospitable conditions.

    Of all major western nations, New Zealand would probably be targeted near last in a nuclear war with Russia or China. New Zealand is not in NATO, does not neighbour Russia, is on the other side of the world from the USA and Europe, is not known to have nuclear weapons and is not in the Australia-UK-USA defence pact v China either while Taiwan or Japan or South Korea are more likely targets for Chinese attacks and invasion and much closer to China.

    India and Pakistan might be reasonably safe however there is the not insignificant prospect both could end up in nuclear war with the other
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    rcs1000 said:

    There is nothing immoral about antisemitism?

    Have you lost your mind?
    I thought you were the one who gave him a donkey avatar?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    biggles said:

    Are you in a position to lead a counter offensive against their eastern flank from the sea?
    Alas the Omnium yacht is ill-positioned.

    No, clearly not, but I'd like to be a pain in the arse to a Russian every day from now on until Putin is toast.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,096
    Scott_xP said:

    ‼️Extraordinary jump for @EmmanuelMacron & downward lurch for Putin-apologist Eric Zemmour in IFOP daily tracking poll today. Macron goes up by 2 points since last poll on Friday to reach 28% of first round support, his highest ever in this poll 1/2 https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1498332689363095558/photo/1

    Putin has pretty much ensured Macron's reelection.

    Funny old world.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    That's not realistic, nor is anything that is sold as a Russian surrender going to work. If NATO don't want Ukraine to join, it won't.
    The Ukraine gets to say.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Putin has pretty much ensured Macron's reelection.

    Funny old world.
    Let's hope this works for Biden/Buttigieg as well!!!
  • rcs1000 said:

    OK. Germany has a lot of gas storage - about four months of average usage. (Or about ten weeks in Winter.)

    If Germany was the only purchaser of spot LNG cargoes in the world, then it could fill up its storage facilities to the brim by the end of the summer, and then could (expensively) ride out next winter.

    But it's a bit more complex than that.

    You see while some countries have lots of long-term LNG supply contracts (South Korea, Japan), others don't (errr... us).

    And this worked out brilliantly for the UK for a long time. You see, long-term LNG prices were around $11-12mmbtu, and spot prices were $8-9. British generators made out like banditos.

    Unfortunately, two things then happened. Firstly, the biggest source of spot LNG (US shale gas) disappeared. During the pandemic, the gas price fell, and drilling stopped. This meant the US was no longer exporting as many cargoes. Secondly, Russia began to wave their big dick around and started cutting gas supplies to Europe (with the express goal of depleting storage facilities). This meant that there was more bidding on LNG cargoes to the extent that ships bound for Asia under contract were turning round heading to Europe.

    In the short to medium term, what needs to happen is that everyone (world-wide) needs to do more coal generation. You can already see this happening in the US where the price of Powder River Basin coal has doubled. More coal generating in the US and Australia means more gas available for export. More coal generating in the UK and Europe means less need for gas. And coal production can be ramped up more easily than natural gas, often by simply adding extra shifts at open pit mines.

    European countries also need to commit to long term LNG supply contracts. And yes, that includes us in the UK. A dozen LNG projects are stalled because of a lack of willingness of European buyers to commit to decade long contracts. If Europe stepped up, we could see a lot of these come through.

    Do these, and you wean Europe off Russian gas.
    We also rather desperately need to look for an alternative to the now defunct Rough gas storage field. Contrary to the Guardian spin it wasn't shut because the Government didn't want to spend the £750 million a year it would cost to maintain it. It was shut because even after spending that money it was almost certain it would not be useable due to the degradation of the reservoir. We have spent a long time looking for alternatives but that has now mostly been knocked on the head because everyone has been saying gas has no future. That needs to change.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Omnium said:

    The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
    Yes, that's right, but we might be involved at one remove - as part of a potential deal, it could be agreed that the matter was settled and further sanctions were not needed, and we (western countries) might be asked to agree (as I expect we would, in that happy if rather unlikely event).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    Omnium said:

    The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.

    David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
  • Omnium said:

    The Ukraine gets to say.
    Not entirely. It can only choose membership if it would be accepted.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Putin has pretty much ensured Macron's reelection.

    Funny old world.
    He did try quite hard with Le Pen on a previous election (also Trump of course). Putin's endorsement isn't the winner it was
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347

    But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.

    If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
    Some might be disappointed if they did that but they need to make the best choice they think they can, as you say. Commentators though not governments would likely moan.

    However thatd be no reason for the West to relax its actions against Russia. The West cannot dictate to Ukraine what options it must accept, likewise Russia cannot make the West relaxing a condition of its offer to Ukraine. The sanctions are due to invading, withdrawing wouldn't reduce the need for consequences.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I don't recognise it. Do you remember which side of the hill it's on?
    Seems to be on the north side but I can't confirm positively.

    But I found this on the south side ...

    https://canmore.org.uk/site/306326/edinburgh-calton-hill-panel-of-st-wolodymyr
  • biggles said:

    Are you in a position to lead a counter offensive against their eastern flank from the sea?
    I was joking earlier that Finland has some land it could take back I believe. Whilst Putin rabble of an army of scared kids is fully committed in a lost war.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407


    David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
    If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore.. :)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    The shift in Europe has been impressive. I just hope people hold their nerve. The only concession I would make to Putin is a referendum on Crimea. But it would have to be done by international observers and since Putin decided to recognise Donbass independence why not Crimean independence as an option?

    He can sod off out of the Donbass.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,599

    Bad polling for Sunak at the same time . This sort of polling is why Johnson looks so much secure now and vindicates a lot of HYUFD's analysis.
    Yes Starmer and Johnson now tied for best PM on 36% each. Starmer however now leads Sunak as best PM 37% to 36%.

    Terrible numbers for Sunak
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-february-2022/
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Safest places in the world in the event of a nuclear war indeed include New Zealand.

    Plus French Polynesia, Yukon in Canada, Iceland, Easter Island, Antarctica, South Africa, Tristan da Cunha and Perth and western Australia apparently

    https://www.thecoolist.com/escape-nuclear-war/

    Easter Island? I hope you like eating sea birds.
    biggles said:

    Are you in a position to lead a counter offensive against their eastern flank from the sea?
    Fleet Black Sea convoys Army Ankara to Sevastopol? Always good for a laugh.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,411

    This is simply factually incorrect.

    We don't even have enough hydrocarbons for today without having to pay the Sheikhs and Putin etc let alone for the entire transition.

    We need to invest in extracting our own hydrocarbons to uncouple ourselves from unsavoury overseas characters as an interim solution and invest in long-term zero carbon solutions.

    The problem with you and your style is you let the fictional, idealised perfect be the enemy of the good but realistic option.
    It is simply factually correct.

    Firstly, read what I said. I said "*if* we had gotten serious". So, if we had done things differently 10 or 20 years ago, we wouldn't be where we are.

    Perhaps regret can only get us so far, you might suggest. OK, so where are we now? We know that if we burn everything in known hydrocarbon reserves around the world, the climate is completely f***ed. We need to transition quickly. There is very little point investing in new sources of hydrocarbons. It just takes too long, and there's more than we can afford to use! We can invest more quickly in green technologies and energy efficiency.

    The problem with you and your style is that you are clinging to the past, unwilling and unable(?) to face what the transition entails.
  • AlistairM said:

    Apple Pay and Google Pay no longer work on Moscow's metro system, leading to long queues as people fumble about for cash
    https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1498343208094478354

    This is going to cause serious issues at home for Putin I would imagine if it carries on for long.

    Good. They need to bring him down.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    edited February 2022
    Omnium said:

    If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore.. :)
    12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this

    image
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    There is nothing immoral about antisemitism?

    Have you lost your mind?
    I understand that HYUFD is defining morality purely in terms of religion, but being anti-semitic (or more generally racist) is immoral on wider grounds (based on common humanity) than whatever bearded chap in the sky we might believe in. In particular, a religion that decided to determine who it was for or against by the opinion of "the majority of the public" would not be worth the scrolls it's written on.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,557
    edited February 2022
    For F1 nerds


    Joe Saward
    @joesaward
    ·
    6m
    The Russian GP promoter cancelled his JSBM subscription (perhaps he disagreed when I said we probably won't have another Russian GP for a generation). That was before I had a chance to inform him that his monthly payment had failed...

    https://twitter.com/joesaward/status/1498348933118050304

    But I do wonder if Haas has found new sponsors or whether Andretti's problem that he can't find a team to buy has been solved
  • alex_ said:

    Was he a particularly consequential FS? He wasn’t FS at the time of his most memorable contribution (opposition to the Iraq war). He tried to do some stuff early on around ethical foreign policy, but ultimately Blair decided it wasn’t a part he wanted to go down.

    Could possibly make a case for Hague.
    Carrington was very good. Falklands wasn't his fault.
This discussion has been closed.