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The Ukranian Crisis – Day 5 – politicalbetting.com

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,209
    Scott_xP said:

    The British Olympic Association demands the exclusion of Russia and Belarus from international sport.
    https://twitter.com/TeamGB/status/1498391493823840272

    I thought the IOC have already announced that?

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/feb/28/ioc-ban-russia-and-belarus-fifa-uefa
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    kle4 said:

    It's believed that Wagner Group (a Russian paramilitary organisation) operatives have been sent in to Kyiv to kill Zelensky and the other "Nazis" in the Ukrainian government.

    The Wagner Group was established by Dmitri Utkin. He looks just the man to de-Nazify Ukraine (check those tats)

    "Put a call out to central casting, I need someone whose very face and image screams 'Russian Mercenary', can we manage that?"
    He looks like Dr. Hans Lammers, Head of the Reich Chancellery from 1933-45.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,235
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: @BorisJohnson suffers major defeat on #BordersBill in House of Lords, by 204 votes to 126
    Peers vote to strip out plans to criminalise refugees.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/priti-patel-helping-ukrainians-is-a-start-but-real-moral-courage-would-mean-no-refugees-are-criminalised-1488660

    330 votes? Not even half the House.

    I know they don't ever get a full House, but as someone counted as a general supporter of the Lords its really not good enough. They have to reduce the numbers significantly, and how can it be argued against when most don't even show up?
    Agreed. Membership of the House should depend on minimum numbers of days attending.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    edited February 2022
    From BBC

    The US Defence Department says that almost 75% of the Russian forces assembled on Ukraine's borders are now inside the country.

    The main advance of troops is now positioned about 25 km from the capital Kyiv, roughly a 5 km gain since Sunday...

    The Pentagon is also yet to see Belarusian forces moving to provide backup to the Russians.


    Readying for the big push as has been spculated perhaps, holding the additional threat of the Belarusians in reserve.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:
    Bell endery of the highest order, but she has a vociferous fan club who will be on your case in about 3 seconds that it was back in October that she was looking a monumental twat like that.

    These days she looks an unspeakable c--t like this. Quite different.

    https://twitter.com/crackerjackpen/status/1497889292336578565/photo/1
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,686
    Fishing said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Churchill was responsible for the 10 year rule on defence spending from the mid 1930s which may have not been to the UK's advantage by Munich.

    The 10-year rule was abandoned in 1932.

    There's a strong argument that had rearmed in the late 20s and early 30s, we might have become complacent and been left with lots of obsolete kit, like the Italians were. I think the rule itself mattered much less than popular opinion, which was mostly pacifist until Hitler occupied Prague in March 1939.
    10 year rule went a re-armament began before Hitler got to power (1932) - the kickoff was the laying down of the pocket battleships by the previous German government.

    It should be noted that the Nazi war plan was to go to war in 1942 - Hitler started the war was ahead of schedule. Which was one reason that some generals were thinking about overthrowing him. Then the successes came rolling in.

    Everyone around Europe could see the schedule - it was written in the German naval plans for a start. Building battleships secretly wasn't feasible for Germany.

    UK rearmament was posited on a 4-5 year war involving total commitment of the economy, and being ready for war at the end of 1941. So up until 36-37 relatively few extra weapons were being actually procured - the bulk of the money was spent on factories to *make* war materials.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,632
    Foss said:

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1498392515262746630

    Musk is most definitely not a good man, but that's a lot of starlink connections provided to Ukraine, and it could/will be crucial in communicating with leaders in encircled cities.

    The counterpoint to that is that Russian anti-satellite warfare could get very messy, very quickly.

    Too many and too small.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,929

    I just found out today about Aleksandr Dugin, the author of Putin's 'Mein Kampf': Foundations Of Geopolitics.

    I'm guessing I'm just a really slow starter, and everyone else has already heard of him and his book?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

    If anyone is in any doubt about the malign intentions of Putin and the current regime in Russia, they should investigate this book and its influence.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:
    Surprised that the Guardian are giving space for this. It's at odds with the vast majority of their Ukraine opinion articles.
    Well, offering alternative opinions and all that. The presence of a stupidly contrarian piece can help reinforce the rest.
    A lot of our main stream media are not very bright and too easily fooled. I’ll give you an example you can’t disagree with that proves they are naive. It’s not a negotiation when there is an Exocet targeted on the room your frightened family are huddled in. It’s a war crime. Our media need to flag this up more clearly, When discussing there’s talks and “negotiations”.
    Exocets are specifically anti ship missiles.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,557
    Thoughts and prayers to Putin's mistress, with her $4 million luxury digs in Monaco.
    https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1498397938917285893?s=20&t=G97tjZurNCUwEXdb7WIFgA
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,194
    Evening all :)

    Almost impossible to change the subject I know but more dreadful polling for Valerie Pecresse in the French Presidential election.

    Changes from equivalent 2017 scores:

    Macron 27% (+3)
    Le Pen: 18% (-3)
    Zemmour: 15% (new)
    Mélenchon: 12.5 (-7.5)
    Pécresse: 11% (-9)

    After polls showing her running second soon after her selection, Pecresse's numbers have just fallen away and in a hypothetical run off with Macron she would now lose 61-39 having been as close as 52-48 two months ago.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    https://twitter.com/komadovsky/status/1498401018555551747

    "‼️#Ukraine will receive 70 more aircraft from NATO and the EU countries, says to the Ukrainian parliament.

    Su-25, Mig-29 from Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia.

    Bulgaria 🇧🇬 (MiG-29) - 16
    Bulgaria 🇧🇬 (Su-25) - 14
    Poland 🇵🇱 (MiG-29) - 28
    Slovakia 🇸🇰 (MiG-29) - 12"

    It is equivalent to 30% of Ukraine's pre-war airforce. 100% of Bulgaria's remaining MiGs and Su-25s, 100% of Slovakia's MiGs, ~130% of Poland's MiGs (I assume training/display craft quickly repurposed). No doubt this was underpinned by US promises of backfilling, but shows just how seriously they're taking this.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,058
    edited February 2022

    Fishing said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Churchill was responsible for the 10 year rule on defence spending from the mid 1930s which may have not been to the UK's advantage by Munich.

    The 10-year rule was abandoned in 1932.

    There's a strong argument that had rearmed in the late 20s and early 30s, we might have become complacent and been left with lots of obsolete kit, like the Italians were. I think the rule itself mattered much less than popular opinion, which was mostly pacifist until Hitler occupied Prague in March 1939.
    10 year rule went a re-armament began before Hitler got to power (1932) - the kickoff was the laying down of the pocket battleships by the previous German government.

    It should be noted that the Nazi war plan was to go to war in 1942 - Hitler started the war was ahead of schedule. Which was one reason that some generals were thinking about overthrowing him. Then the successes came rolling in.

    Everyone around Europe could see the schedule - it was written in the German naval plans for a start. Building battleships secretly wasn't feasible for Germany.

    UK rearmament was posited on a 4-5 year war involving total commitment of the economy, and being ready for war at the end of 1941. So up until 36-37 relatively few extra weapons were being actually procured - the bulk of the money was spent on factories to *make* war materials.
    The French and UK were expecting a long war, with economic blockade and a static front. Basically what won the previous war. The Germans were planning a short intensive mobile war.

    Each was partially right.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    I haven't seen a post by our new poster PJonston tonight?

    Have the sanctions meant that his payments from the kremlin can no longer get though?
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,634
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60557073

    "The Comparethemarket price comparison site has pulled ads featuring the animated rich Russian meerkat Aleksandr Orlov from news bulletins and content about the Ukraine war.

    The firm said it had reviewed its media strategy due to the sensitivities around the Russian invasion.

    Orlov, and sidekick Sergei, feature in one of the advertising industry's most recognised campaigns.

    The firm stressed in a statement: "The meerkats are fictional characters."

    Comparethemarket continued: "They have no association with Russia and the current situation. We are continually reviewing our advertising to ensure we're being sensitive to the current situation."


    SANCTION THOSE FICTIONAL NON-ASSOCIATED MEERKATS
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,209
    BigRich said:

    I haven't seen a post by our new poster PJonston tonight?

    Have the sanctions meant that his payments from the kremlin can no longer get though?

    The Ban Hammer & Sickle got him last night, I believe.

    And this Thread has now gone the same way.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60557073

    "The Comparethemarket price comparison site has pulled ads featuring the animated rich Russian meerkat Aleksandr Orlov from news bulletins and content about the Ukraine war.

    The firm said it had reviewed its media strategy due to the sensitivities around the Russian invasion.

    Orlov, and sidekick Sergei, feature in one of the advertising industry's most recognised campaigns.

    The firm stressed in a statement: "The meerkats are fictional characters."

    Comparethemarket continued: "They have no association with Russia and the current situation. We are continually reviewing our advertising to ensure we're being sensitive to the current situation."


    SANCTION THOSE FICTIONAL NON-ASSOCIATED MEERKATS

    Where does the money for that smoking jacket and beach holidays come from?
    We need an explanation.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,632
    edited February 2022

    It's believed that Wagner Group (a Russian paramilitary organisation) operatives have been sent in to Kyiv to kill Zelensky and the other "Nazis" in the Ukrainian government.

    The Wagner Group was established by Dmitri Utkin. He looks just the man to de-Nazify Ukraine (check those tats)

    What a nice chap, obviously a sensitive intellectual who wants to fight prejudice in modern Ukraine.
    It’s a swipe left from me.
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    kle4 said:

    It's believed that Wagner Group (a Russian paramilitary organisation) operatives have been sent in to Kyiv to kill Zelensky and the other "Nazis" in the Ukrainian government.

    The Wagner Group was established by Dmitri Utkin. He looks just the man to de-Nazify Ukraine (check those tats)

    "Put a call out to central casting, I need someone whose very face and image screams 'Russian Mercenary', can we manage that?"
    Unless things have changed significantly recently, in Russian don't tattoos = criminals?

    So Putin has his own "Dirlewanger" penal regiment? No wonder 45 is such a fan!
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,144



    kle4 said:

    Based on Zelensky's twitter feed seems like he can't get Boris off the phone the last few days. The man is busy Boris, leave him alone!

    Bozza advising Zelensky on strategy? So far it's working well.
    Zelenskyy advising Bozza on strategy? So far it's working well.
    Alternatively they could be swapping comedy tip
    Scott_xP said:

    Asked today if Ukrainian pensioner refugee Valentina Rumyantsyeva could come to London on the Eurostar having been turned back on Saturday, the Home Secretary said 'yes'. But @ukhomeoffice has since told me she is still not eligible to join her daughter. https://twitter.com/BBCMarkEaston/status/1498363839582248966/photo/1

    She doesn't look to be much of a seasoned fruit picker.
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    BigRich said:

    I haven't seen a post by our new poster PJonston tonight?

    Have the sanctions meant that his payments from the kremlin can no longer get though?

    Someone said earlier he was banned. While amusing and silly to us there is an argument his posts can be used as propaganda back home that there's "dissent" so I understand it.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,058
    dixiedean said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60557073

    "The Comparethemarket price comparison site has pulled ads featuring the animated rich Russian meerkat Aleksandr Orlov from news bulletins and content about the Ukraine war.

    The firm said it had reviewed its media strategy due to the sensitivities around the Russian invasion.

    Orlov, and sidekick Sergei, feature in one of the advertising industry's most recognised campaigns.

    The firm stressed in a statement: "The meerkats are fictional characters."

    Comparethemarket continued: "They have no association with Russia and the current situation. We are continually reviewing our advertising to ensure we're being sensitive to the current situation."


    SANCTION THOSE FICTIONAL NON-ASSOCIATED MEERKATS

    Where does the money for that smoking jacket and beach holidays come from?
    We need an explanation.
    Mrs Foxy refuses to accept that these are a gay meerkat couple, despite them even having a home in San Francisco
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784

    NEW THREAD

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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,194
    Slovenia votes on April 24th (the weekend after Easter).

    The emergence of Robert Golob as a new political broker and his take over of the Green Actions Party and its rebranding as Svoboda has dramatically changed Slovenian politics.

    In the latest polling, Svoboda has a small but significant lead over the ruling Slovenian Democratic Party whose centre-right coalition has 37 seats and can draw on 10 others for Confidence & Supply.

    Forming up on the centre-left is the KUL bloc (Constitutional Arch Coalition) which looks to include Svoboda, the Social Democrats, the Left Party and a few other small parties some of which wont get over the 4% threshold. The other players are the centrist lists of Marjan Sarec and Alexandra Bratusnek which should both get back into the National Assembly.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,686
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    BigRich said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Russia-Ukraine latest news: Russian military convoy approaching Kyiv now over 17 miles long

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-latest-news-war-putin-zelensky-weapons-updates/

    Great clunking fist time

    They are insane. A few hits by drone or rocket-launcher in well-chosen places (and, after all, the Ukrainians know their own land, so will know where those places are), and the whole 17 miles worth grinds to a halt. A distinctly uncomfortable halt, I would imagine.
    Simultaneously destroy the ones at the front and back of the convoy, then you can hit those in the middle is the normal tactic isn't it?
    Well, a bit more complicated than that in the sense that, over 17 miles, you need to ensure they can't just drive around the wrecked vehicles or turn down a different road, but, yes, essentially.
    if its 17 miles long, is that still 'one convoy' or is to not just a very busy road? or even a traffic jam?
    It's a Market Garden.
    Monty over-reached, but it was a close thing. The supply corridor wasn't the failure.

    Though a large traffic jam due to advancing up one road was part of the problem.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,653
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bell endery of the highest order, but she has a vociferous fan club who will be on your case in about 3 seconds that it was back in October that she was looking a monumental twat like that.

    These days she looks an unspeakable c--t like this. Quite different.

    https://twitter.com/crackerjackpen/status/1497889292336578565/photo/1
    You have some weird creepy man problem with her. I suspect you fancy her and it disturbs you

    She is a very mildly charismatic Tory lady politician who sometimes makes bad (and sometimes good) PR choices. She is not a notable duffer, like Gav Williamson or Grayling. She actually conveys a certain competence, and she annoys/charms others abroad - they certainly notice her, which can't be said for a lot of British Foreign Ministers.

    Get off her case or, at least, be less *weird* about it

    Successful Tory female politicians with a certain attractiveness have always had this effect on middle aged men. Since Thatch. She evoked some very strange feelings. Oedipal masochism in the switchy posh (spank me Nanny!) basic let-me-suckle-you stuff from the confused cucky left liberal middle classes, and resentful rape play fantasies in working class alphas.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,686

    biggles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Russia-Ukraine latest news: Russian military convoy approaching Kyiv now over 17 miles long

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-latest-news-war-putin-zelensky-weapons-updates/

    Great clunking fist time

    They are insane. A few hits by drone or rocket-launcher in well-chosen places (and, after all, the Ukrainians know their own land, so will know where those places are), and the whole 17 miles worth grinds to a halt. A distinctly uncomfortable halt, I would imagine.
    Those drone/plane/rocket-launcher/guerrilla attacks on that convoy look to be the way this war could end. It would effectively be impossible to proceed with the Kyiv attack if that convoy is lost.
    Yep. Russia doesn't have complete air superiority. Even if they did, the drones (assuming the Ukrainians have enough still operational) are hard to stop. And even without the drones, the Russians will have a hell of a difficult job defending themselves from hand-held anti-tank weapons along such a long stretch. The Ukrainians only need to get lucky in a few places to cause havoc.
    The Turkish drones intrigue me. I wonder what the Turkish stocks are, and the build time? Would be possible to make the supply feel infinite without ever declaring you were doing anything.
    Herman Goring on the Mosquito:

    "It makes me furious when I see the Mosquito. I turn green and yellow with envy. The British, who can afford aluminum better than we can, knock together a beautiful wooden aircraft that every piano factory over there is building…. They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops.”

    Decades ago (1980s, 1990s or so), there was a British loony who said that instead of making a few multi-million aircraft, we should be making thousands of dirt cheap ones. The idea being that the missiles to take them down might cost more than the planes themselves.

    The tech was there, just about. With drones, the tech is there, and we don't need pilots in them.
    The bitter joke about the Mosquito was that it didn't need to be wood. While that helped to get the smooth finish, the real success was in building a very aerodynamic plane, putting two top notch fighter engines in it, with a very very efficient cooling system and cutting the load back to keep the performance high.

    The same philosophy, but for one engine, gave the Mustang similar performance and range.

    Notably Spitfire couldn't escort Mosquitos - the Mosquito cruising speed was much much higher. The Mustang could and did.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,686
    Scott_xP said:

    Chameleon said:

    Seeing the mythology of a nation form in real time is just crazy. It's not hard to see many things that will be touchstones of Ukrainian nationhood for at least a century to come unfold before our eyes: Zelenskyy, Snake Island, Ghost of Kyiv (the veracity of a myth rarely matters), hiding in the underground, babushka molotov making sessions etc. It's been said a lot recently, but this week has been one where a decade has happened, and you're probably looking back at 9/11 or the wall falling for a week that has changed so much so quickly.


    Ordinary Ukrainians, driving along, throwing molotov cocktails in broad daylight at Russian military vehicles. Unbelievable resistance.
    https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1498361635605561348
    Ukrainian Road Rage.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,686
    Chameleon said:

    I just found out today about Aleksandr Dugin, the author of Putin's 'Mein Kampf': Foundations Of Geopolitics.

    I'm guessing I'm just a really slow starter, and everyone else has already heard of him and his book?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

    It's been talked about for a while, but only upon re-reading the wikipedia page I realise how much of it was copied and pasted into Putin's speech/the victory essay that was published by mistake:

    Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.
    Hmmmm...

    Getting a "Foundations of the 19th Cent." vibe - the title is almost certainly a reference

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Foundations_of_the_Nineteenth_Century
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houston_Stewart_Chamberlain
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I just found out today about Aleksandr Dugin, the author of Putin's 'Mein Kampf': Foundations Of Geopolitics.

    I'm guessing I'm just a really slow starter, and everyone else has already heard of him and his book?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

    Yes, it's quite fascinating that Putin's entire geo political plan is in the book (minus the bonkers numerology shit) and people don't pay it any attention.

    Like, people are go "whoa, crazy unpredicable Putin, whoever could have seen that coming?" and it's like chapter 5 of the book.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Foxy said:

    BigRich said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Chameleon said:

    Seeing the mythology of a nation form in real time is just crazy. It's not hard to see many things that will be touchstones of Ukrainian nationhood for at least a century to come unfold before our eyes: Zelenskyy, Snake Island, Ghost of Kyiv (the veracity of a myth rarely matters), hiding in the underground, babushka molotov making sessions etc. It's been said a lot recently, but this week has been one where a decade has happened, and you're probably looking back at 9/11 or the wall falling for a week that has changed so much so quickly.


    Ordinary Ukrainians, driving along, throwing molotov cocktails in broad daylight at Russian military vehicles. Unbelievable resistance.
    https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1498361635605561348
    There is Brave,
    Suicidality Brave
    and now a new level, Ukrainian Brave.
    The Russian APC was being towed by a civilian tractor, so could easily be broken or even captured already.
    Tractor had a Z too so not captured unless it was a 2 for 1 deal.
This discussion has been closed.