Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Have fun everyone who goes. Hopefully there'll be one up North at some point.
It's north of the Thames, isn't it? What more do you want?
It's a reflection on transport in the North that this wouldn't be a whole lot harder for me to get to than one in, say, Manchester. Stick it in that pub in KX and it's probably easier than most places in Manchester!
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
If you lived in the Fens in those times, it was you having a chance or the birds.
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Are there any covid protocols about attending the gathering?
Not a bedwetting question, I'd be pleased to come away with a dose of omicron to reinforce the booster, but I thought i'd ask
Everyone attending will be dressed as a clown and wearing a a polka dot mask. Make sure you do the same. You wouldn’t want to look silly and be the only one not.
Thank God you tipped me off in time
You would have had a red face instead of a red nose.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Are there any covid protocols about attending the gathering?
Not a bedwetting question, I'd be pleased to come away with a dose of omicron to reinforce the booster, but I thought i'd ask
Everyone attending will be dressed as a clown and wearing a a polka dot mask. Make sure you do the same. You wouldn’t want to look silly and be the only one not.
Thank God you tipped me off in time
Except for the people dressed as W.E. Johns characters...
Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Have fun everyone who goes. Hopefully there'll be one up North at some point.
It's north of the Thames, isn't it? What more do you want?
It's a reflection on transport in the North that this wouldn't be a whole lot harder for me to get to than one in, say, Manchester. Stick it in that pub in KX and it's probably easier than most places in Manchester!
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
Churchill’s main thesis in the first volume of his war history. Had we challenged them earlier, we’d have spared the world the war as Hitler backed down. I think he was right - but then since about 1938, so has everyone. Except HYUFD.
Britain and France were in no position to fight before Poland, it was debatable as to whether we were in September 1939 but we had to draw a line. The extra year allowed for a significant increase in arming by both. The only way to have prevented WWII was to be less punitive in 1919
When you read his (almost) contemporaneous words, it reminds you it was a different world though. He points to an anglo-French push enabled by the fact that the Czechs, Poles etc. would have been a factor on his other flank. As Cookies says above, the great unknown was the Luftwaffe and some of those questions are all that gets Chamberlain (but not Baldwin, who was useless on this) off the hook.
Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Have fun everyone who goes. Hopefully there'll be one up North at some point.
It's north of the Thames, isn't it? What more do you want?
It's a reflection on transport in the North that this wouldn't be a whole lot harder for me to get to than one in, say, Manchester. Stick it in that pub in KX and it's probably easier than most places in Manchester!
For a different internet forum we continually use a single pub for meetups in Leeds for that exact reason....
Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Have fun everyone who goes. Hopefully there'll be one up North at some point.
It's north of the Thames, isn't it? What more do you want?
It's a reflection on transport in the North that this wouldn't be a whole lot harder for me to get to than one in, say, Manchester. Stick it in that pub in KX and it's probably easier than most places in Manchester!
The biggest problem for me in the Midlands or North is being midweek. I could have probably made a weekend trip.
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
The military top brass seem to have spent their budgets on modernising their villas rather than their armies.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
Have we covered this? A very interesting insight into the worldview of Putin's government, in an article written on the assumption of a very quick victory, and mistakenly published anyway when said victory didn't quite materialise:
Timothy Snyder also had a look at it on a short thread, which end with this: https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1498356805805789191 Further anticipated is the creation of a unified Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian entity, and the rebalancing of world order in a "new epoch" of Russian domination over a humiliated and divided West...
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
Churchill’s main thesis in the first volume of his war history. Had we challenged them earlier, we’d have spared the world the war as Hitler backed down. I think he was right - but then since about 1938, so has everyone. Except HYUFD.
Britain and France were in no position to fight before Poland, it was debatable as to whether we were in September 1939 but we had to draw a line. The extra year allowed for a significant increase in arming by both. The only way to have prevented WWII was to be less punitive in 1919
When you read his (almost) contemporaneous words, it reminds you it was a different world though. He points to an anglo-French push enabled by the fact that the Czechs, Poles etc. would have been a factor on his other flank. As Cookies says above, the great unknown was the Luftwaffe and some of those questions are all that gets Chamberlain (but not Baldwin, who was useless on this) off the hook.
Not having Stalin or Molotov was the other error at Munich. It was the Anglo-French decision to let Hitler have the Sudetenland, that convinced Stalin thar we wouldn't fight, hence the secret annex to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Stalin needed time to rearm, and particularly re-officer the Red Army after the purges.
Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Have fun everyone who goes. Hopefully there'll be one up North at some point.
It's north of the Thames, isn't it? What more do you want?
It's a reflection on transport in the North that this wouldn't be a whole lot harder for me to get to than one in, say, Manchester. Stick it in that pub in KX and it's probably easier than most places in Manchester!
It would be about equally difficult for me.
Which is why we should hold them in Lichfield...
Repton, please. The capital of old Mercia, the middle kingdom. Totally not coincidentally, also a few miles from some free accommodation for myself. Also where I went to primary school, at St Wystans. So yes, Repton, please.)
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Permitted for publication: Disaster in Ukraine, Israeli Jew shot dead this evening near Kiev during an attempt to leave the city towards the state borders | This is a 37-year-old Israeli Jew who was shot to death while traveling from Kiev to join the secure bus convoys to leave the borders of Ukraine. Notice was given to his family.
Looking forward to seeing old faces and new at the PB gathering in 2 days time. 😀
Have fun everyone who goes. Hopefully there'll be one up North at some point.
It's north of the Thames, isn't it? What more do you want?
It's a reflection on transport in the North that this wouldn't be a whole lot harder for me to get to than one in, say, Manchester. Stick it in that pub in KX and it's probably easier than most places in Manchester!
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
If you lived in the Fens in those times, it was you having a chance or the birds.
One better poll for Tories in sequence of Tories going backward little bit each time polls, and it’s noticeable those who didn’t want to talk polls over weekend now want to talk it. 🙂 so okay, because for us Libdems analyse shows there is one certain message across ALL the recent “crisis” polling, and that is Libdems definitely bouncing up in them all. And if we are to analyse most likely reason for this, it surely has to point to the often slow and error strewn performance of Boris and his government over this period?
Lack of likes to, admittedly one of my more partisan posts celebrating confirmed poll surge, I put down to Libdems already seated for dinner. Except foxy, though foxy is a law unto himself like a proper fox.
Well obviously it’s just my opinion and analysis. And I don’t have all the long term certainty in what I am suggesting today to prove it. But take what has been happening last couple of days, world open armed and loving to displaced and desperate Ukrainians, apart from UK under the Tories, who are pondering if they can “work the land” fill some of the crappier vacancies, and even worse using excuse some might be spy’s or terrorists, whilst simply lying about their policy in the HoC
Isn’t this exactly the type of Tory behaviour, where you have voters recently fluid between Lib Dem and Tory based on how unappealing and dangerous the Labour offer is, has voters flowing now towards the libdems? And if the government continues to be out of touch and mistake laden at times in this crisis, this could just be the start of this realignment of support, prove more durable long term than ephemeral war Lead rally to flag during crisis
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
I'm not as anti-you on this as most others on here but I do think you're being too reductive and gospel about NATO. It's not the King James, it's an earthly treaty. NATO membership (or not) is a significant factor in whether the US would defend another country but it isn't definitive.
What happens is their political leadership of the moment assesses the cost/benefit of military involvement - where one of the costs is the hit to their reputation if they don't (which would be sky high if we're talking a NATO member) - and if it passes that test (to their eyes) they will do it, NATO member or not. Likewise if it doesn't they will not do it, NATO member or not.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
Allegedly in the Falklands War, we needed refuelling proves for the Victor tankers. We did not have enough of them, so we got one from a Victor tanker that was on display in Canada. Or summat like that.
A friend had a job of cost-reducing a weapons system. The idea being: if there was a war where there was a rapid need for this weapons system, how would we get them quickly and cheaper?
The idea being that the stuff we normally use is gold-plated. If we were in a war situation, we would want it copper-plated. How would they do it? A fair bit of money was spent on this, never seen.
As an example, computer chips are binned. That means as they come out of the foundry (sort of), they are tested. One that has some out well might be set at 4GHz. One that has not come out well might work well at 2GHz. They are sorted out into 'bins'. Identically-made chips, that have just come out of the cooker slightly different. (There are many criteria you can use for binning, such as temperature ranges, frequency, 'spare' cache, 'spare' cores, etc, etc.)
The military have a set of requirements that means their chips are binned as the best of the best. And they pay for it. A way of cost-reducing a system? Use whatever chips you can get.
"I had to delete the Ksenia sobchak video - it turned out to be old"
Some actual dissent on prime time Russian media: https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498362044575330315 Holy shit this is huge! Ksenia Sobchak on national Russian TV, on the talk show of Putin’s rabid media chihuahua Skabeyeva (it’s literally the epicentre of Putin’s media cesspool), JUST SPOKE THE TRUTH. “No one is happy to see us, bc we are becoming an aggressor” ...“Which arguments do you have that scary NATO will attack us tomorrow, tell me at least one! It’s us who is an aggressor, we are occupying lands, we are staring wars”. This is a *massive* break in Botox baboon’s media blockade, and really brave. I’d be scared. RIP Ksenia
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
"I had to delete the Ksenia sobchak video - it turned out to be old"
Some actual dissent on prime time Russian media: https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498362044575330315 Holy shit this is huge! Ksenia Sobchak on national Russian TV, on the talk show of Putin’s rabid media chihuahua Skabeyeva (it’s literally the epicentre of Putin’s media cesspool), JUST SPOKE THE TRUTH. “No one is happy to see us, bc we are becoming an aggressor” ...“Which arguments do you have that scary NATO will attack us tomorrow, tell me at least one! It’s us who is an aggressor, we are occupying lands, we are staring wars”. This is a *massive* break in Botox baboon’s media blockade, and really brave. I’d be scared. RIP Ksenia
I had to delete the Ksenia sobchak video - it turned out to be old 😱
"I had to delete the Ksenia sobchak video - it turned out to be old"
Some actual dissent on prime time Russian media: https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498362044575330315 Holy shit this is huge! Ksenia Sobchak on national Russian TV, on the talk show of Putin’s rabid media chihuahua Skabeyeva (it’s literally the epicentre of Putin’s media cesspool), JUST SPOKE THE TRUTH. “No one is happy to see us, bc we are becoming an aggressor” ...“Which arguments do you have that scary NATO will attack us tomorrow, tell me at least one! It’s us who is an aggressor, we are occupying lands, we are staring wars”. This is a *massive* break in Botox baboon’s media blockade, and really brave. I’d be scared. RIP Ksenia
Just looking her up. An interesting figure. Her father was Putin's mentor and boss. She herself was regarded as 'protected' because of her association with Putin but has increasingly been critical of him including criticising his annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Have we covered this? A very interesting insight into the worldview of Putin's government, in an article written on the assumption of a very quick victory, and mistakenly published anyway when said victory didn't quite materialise:
Timothy Snyder also had a look at it on a short thread, which end with this: https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1498356805805789191 Further anticipated is the creation of a unified Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian entity, and the rebalancing of world order in a "new epoch" of Russian domination over a humiliated and divided West...
I've not seen much on how the financial sanctions introduced at the weekend have affected life in Russia. The stock exchange remains closed but I've not seen any reports of a run on the banks. I guess most Russians only save in rubles, which are still freely available for the banks to issue of course.
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
The military top brass seem to have spent their budgets on modernising their villas rather than their armies.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
I am just back home this evening, so apologies if this has already been discussed, BUT... the lightning geostrategic realignment of the entire globe continues:
#China's position on Ukraine conflict gets sharper. MOFA spokesperson Wang Wenbing sent a message to Russia: no actor should "recklessly harm the sovereignty and security of other countries out of seeking its own absolute military superiority and absolute security."
He wants to open a debate on Japan acquiring a nuclear deterrent (albeit not directly, but rather by asking to host American nuclear weapons) - something which, if it took the step, would be an order of magnitude bigger even than Germany dumping pseudo-pacifism and hugely increasing its defence budget.
Somehow one gathers the impression that this is not the sort of reaction that Looney Tunes was expecting.
I've not seen much on how the financial sanctions introduced at the weekend have affected life in Russia. The stock exchange remains closed but I've not seen any reports of a run on the banks. I guess most Russians only save in rubles, which are still freely available for the banks to issue of course.
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
Bit early to say that. Expect rampant inflation and major cuts in living standards.
"I had to delete the Ksenia sobchak video - it turned out to be old"
Some actual dissent on prime time Russian media: https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498362044575330315 Holy shit this is huge! Ksenia Sobchak on national Russian TV, on the talk show of Putin’s rabid media chihuahua Skabeyeva (it’s literally the epicentre of Putin’s media cesspool), JUST SPOKE THE TRUTH. “No one is happy to see us, bc we are becoming an aggressor” ...“Which arguments do you have that scary NATO will attack us tomorrow, tell me at least one! It’s us who is an aggressor, we are occupying lands, we are staring wars”. This is a *massive* break in Botox baboon’s media blockade, and really brave. I’d be scared. RIP Ksenia
The link is not working
But this is significant if accurate.
Does anybody know if YouTube is available or blocked in Russia? ether normally or at the moment?
BREAKING - The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said.
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
Apologise if there was plenty of discussion on it already but just trying to catch up on the day. Is the Zelensky "we have applied for Ukraine to join the EU" essentially a desperate (albeit reasonable) act of kite-flying, or is it a genuine "we've already given you the nod, just fill in the paperwork" from the EU?
I am just back home this evening, so apologies if this has already been discussed, BUT... the lightning geostrategic realignment of the entire globe continues:
#China's position on Ukraine conflict gets sharper. MOFA spokesperson Wang Wenbing sent a message to Russia: no actor should "recklessly harm the sovereignty and security of other countries out of seeking its own absolute military superiority and absolute security."
He wants to open a debate on Japan acquiring a nuclear deterrent (albeit not directly, but rather by asking to host American nuclear weapons) - something which, if it took the step, would be an order of magnitude bigger even than Germany dumping pseudo-pacifism and hugely increasing its defence budget.
Somehow one gathers the impression that this is not the sort of reaction that Looney Tunes was expecting.
That would be quite the development. Putin looks increasingly isolated
BREAKING - The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said.
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
Might be the best thing for us: three years of nuclear winter and then a population 1 millionth the size and incapable of extracting refining and burning any more oil would solve the climate crisis like nobody's business.
One better poll for Tories in sequence of Tories going backward little bit each time polls, and it’s noticeable those who didn’t want to talk polls over weekend now want to talk it. 🙂 so okay, because for us Libdems analyse shows there is one certain message across ALL the recent “crisis” polling, and that is Libdems definitely bouncing up in them all. And if we are to analyse most likely reason for this, it surely has to point to the often slow and error strewn performance of Boris and his government over this period?
Lack of likes to, admittedly one of my more partisan posts celebrating confirmed poll surge, I put down to Libdems already seated for dinner. Except foxy, though foxy is a law unto himself like a proper fox.
Well obviously it’s just my opinion and analysis. And I don’t have all the long term certainty in what I am suggesting today to prove it. But take what has been happening last couple of days, world open armed and loving to displaced and desperate Ukrainians, apart from UK under the Tories, who are pondering if they can “work the land” fill some of the crappier vacancies, and even worse using excuse some might be spy’s or terrorists, whilst simply lying about their policy in the HoC
Isn’t this exactly the type of Tory behaviour, where you have voters recently fluid between Lib Dem and Tory based on how unappealing and dangerous the Labour offer is, has voters flowing now towards the libdems? And if the government continues to be out of touch and mistake laden at times in this crisis, this could just be the start of this realignment of support, prove more durable long term than ephemeral war Lead rally to flag during crisis
I would just comment I am open to voting for any of the three parties and at this stage I have no idea which
However, it is fair to say Boris has improved, and his address last night to the Ukrainians in their church was heartfelt and he received an amazing spontaneous standing ovation from the congregation
Patel announcing that 100, 000 Ukrainians will be accepted into the UK with full rights to work is good and probably higher than will actually arrive
War has changed everything and predicting the future of politics in the UK is very difficult
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
I've not seen much on how the financial sanctions introduced at the weekend have affected life in Russia. The stock exchange remains closed but I've not seen any reports of a run on the banks. I guess most Russians only save in rubles, which are still freely available for the banks to issue of course.
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
No, the impact will be on Russian businesses who deal/have any financial products overseas.
Right now they will struggle to access that money or pay anything overseas.
Apologise if there was plenty of discussion on it already but just trying to catch up on the day. Is the Zelensky "we have applied for Ukraine to join the EU" essentially a desperate (albeit reasonable) act of kite-flying, or is it a genuine "we've already given you the nod, just fill in the paperwork" from the EU?
I think it's a "why not?" It puts a marker down on where Ukraine wants to go and the EU can give the Ukraine am easy show of support. Of course nothing will actually happen until the situation calms down and hopefully returns to some sort of normality that doesn't involve a Russian balkanized state.
I've not seen much on how the financial sanctions introduced at the weekend have affected life in Russia. The stock exchange remains closed but I've not seen any reports of a run on the banks. I guess most Russians only save in rubles, which are still freely available for the banks to issue of course.
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
Bit early to say that. Expect rampant inflation and major cuts in living standards.
Russia can still readily afford fuel and the wide range of foods available within its own borders, but a wide range of other products will become ruinously expensive - either because they are directly imported from abroad, or components to make them need to be imported from abroad (assuming they aren't actually under embargo.) The general principle being that immiserating the Russian populace might encourage them to unseat their despot and elevate a slightly less bonkers one in his place.
Apologise if there was plenty of discussion on it already but just trying to catch up on the day. Is the Zelensky "we have applied for Ukraine to join the EU" essentially a desperate (albeit reasonable) act of kite-flying, or is it a genuine "we've already given you the nod, just fill in the paperwork" from the EU?
It's setting an agenda item for the future whilst he is in a strong moral position with the attention of the world, I'd say.
Also possibly setting up his position for the meeting with the Russians.
Ukraine divorce from Western institutions is a Russian pre-demand.
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
When looking at why Russia might be having a problem with military equipment in Ukraine, look at their space program.
Russia rightly has a stellar reputation as a space power. They have an illustrious history in spacefaring, but they are being left behind. They keep on announcing new programs, and spend billions on them, but little seems to happen.
Take the new Angara rocket. Developed at vast cost, it has launched just four times since 2014, all as test flights, with one partial failure. This for a rocket roughly in the Falcon-9 class, which flies many times a year. Or even week.
Then look at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, designed to partially replace their reliance on Kazakhstan. Massively late, massively over-budget, with people sacked or 'dead' because of nine-figure graft.
These failures are visible to us because they are to do with space, where there is a great deal of visibility with the west via NASA and customers. I expect the military to be the same.
Basically: they can keep their current kit going well. Anything new is problematic. They can build one or two, and that's it.
The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over any war crimes committed in Ukraine. Russian officers ordering cluster-bomb attacks on civilians will be liable, irrespective of whether they were obeying orders.
I've not seen much on how the financial sanctions introduced at the weekend have affected life in Russia. The stock exchange remains closed but I've not seen any reports of a run on the banks. I guess most Russians only save in rubles, which are still freely available for the banks to issue of course.
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
Bit early to say that. Expect rampant inflation and major cuts in living standards.
Russia can still readily afford fuel and the wide range of foods available within its own borders, but a wide range of other products will become ruinously expensive - either because they are directly imported from abroad, or components to make them need to be imported from abroad (assuming they aren't actually under embargo.) The general principle being that immiserating the Russian populace might encourage them to unseat their despot and elevate a slightly less bonkers one in his place.
Also because there will be less money coming into Russia. Russia has stuff to sell but can't get the money in easily.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
Might be the best thing for us: three years of nuclear winter and then a population 1 millionth the size and incapable of extracting refining and burning any more oil would solve the climate crisis like nobody's business.
adios muchachos.
So it is all Greta’s evil plan! She’s sat there in her evil Bond villain layer, smiling approvingly.
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
They varied in bore, as they were often muzzle loaders so did not require the standard sizes required of breach loaded cartridges. "One bore" may well have been common, meaning (for anyone that is interested) that the barrel was the width of a lead ball of one ounce. A 12 bore is the width of 1/12 ounce, 20 bore 1/20th etc. Most obviously do not fire solid ball (or BB) as would make a bit of a mess of the wildfowl, but will fire shot of varying size, normally no.4 or 5 for wildfowl.
The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over any war crimes committed in Ukraine. Russian officers ordering cluster-bomb attacks on civilians will be liable, irrespective of whether they were obeying orders.
I've not seen much on how the financial sanctions introduced at the weekend have affected life in Russia. The stock exchange remains closed but I've not seen any reports of a run on the banks. I guess most Russians only save in rubles, which are still freely available for the banks to issue of course.
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
Bit early to say that. Expect rampant inflation and major cuts in living standards.
Russia can still readily afford fuel and the wide range of foods available within its own borders, but a wide range of other products will become ruinously expensive - either because they are directly imported from abroad, or components to make them need to be imported from abroad (assuming they aren't actually under embargo.) The general principle being that immiserating the Russian populace might encourage them to unseat their despot and elevate a slightly less bonkers one in his place.
The biggest headaches for Russia will be:
- consumer goods that depend on imports, like mobile phones, computers, etc. - oil services equipment - without high tech gear from Schlumberger, Wetherfood, Halliburton, etc., can they maintain oil & gas productiom - cars and car parts
They are fine for basic foodstuffs and are an exporter of wheat.
BREAKING - The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said.
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
BREAKING - The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said.
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
Churchill was responsible for the 10 year rule on defence spending from the mid 1930s which may have not been to the UK's advantage by Munich.
The 10-year rule was abandoned in 1932.
There's a strong argument that had rearmed in the late 20s and early 30s, we might have become complacent and been left with lots of obsolete kit, like the Italians were. I think the rule itself mattered much less than popular opinion, which was mostly pacifist until Hitler occupied Prague in March 1939.
Not a specialist in Russian mortgages but I reckon plenty of ordinary Russians will not be happy about interest rates going up a lot today.
It'll be felt hardest by the Moscow & St Petersburg middle class, people living in their parents and grandparents houses in the arse end of Siberia and Adygea (And the very rich) won't be too badly affected as housing is worth fuck all in lots of places I expect.
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
They varied in bore, as they were often muzzle loaders so did not require the standard sizes required of breach loaded cartridges. "One bore" may well have been common, meaning (for anyone that is interested) that the barrel was the width of a lead ball of one ounce. A 12 bore is the width of 1/12 ounce, 20 bore 1/20th etc. Most obviously do not fire solid ball (or BB) as would make a bit of a mess of the wildfowl, but will fire shot of varying size, normally no.4 or 5 for wildfowl.
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
They varied in bore, as they were often muzzle loaders so did not require the standard sizes required of breach loaded cartridges. "One bore" may well have been common, meaning (for anyone that is interested) that the barrel was the width of a lead ball of one ounce. A 12 bore is the width of 1/12 ounce, 20 bore 1/20th etc. Most obviously do not fire solid ball (or BB) as would make a bit of a mess of the wildfowl, but will fire shot of varying size, normally no.4 or 5 for wildfowl.
That should say pound not ounce, which would make quite a difference!
FWIW, I am hearing from friends with contacts in Russia that there are some very serious conversations going on across the regime and we may see some serious attempt to "resolve" the problem quite soon. If and it is a very big IF, Putin holds off attacks on civilian targets and the road to Kyiv stays open as primised to Macron, then the talks can continue. Russian side privately admitting that the situation is difficult, and things are still very dangerous,
My guess is that if the Ukrainians can hang on for another week, then the exit ramp will be looking very attractive to the Kremlin, "Neutral and no return of Crimea" seems to be the bottom line, but there are still a lot of issues to work through on the Russian side.
BTW if I were Oleksander Lukashenka tonight I would be feeling very nervous indeed.
That looks like a landing zone if there is to be one. Implementation of Minsk II with the removal of the constitutional obligations on Ukraine; Crimea to be punted into the long grass with a putative separate agreement. As Russia is supposedly committed to Minsk it could be presented as a face-saving win for Moscow.
What about the West? Even if Ukraine and Russia do a deal, the West might decide it wants to go ahead and F8ck Russia's economy anyhow.
Can Ukraine deliver its Western friends,given Putin threatened some serious Western allies?
Yeah, this is the next potential problem, in either direction. There are very much three interested groups: Russia, Ukraine, The West. Obviously the latter are not officially involved, but they have a huge say in all of this.
The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way this ends with Russia getting most of what it wanted anyway and everything going back to normal.
But the West's say needs to be necessarily subsumed to that of Ukraine. We cannot be using them as a bargaining chip to get what we want and we need to be true to our word and our proclaimed beliefs and allow them to make the free and fair decision which they believe is in their own best interests.
If, for example, Ukraine decided the best result they could hope for was to remain free but neutral with their defences intact and backed up by the West but with Crimea and the Donbas lost (I am not saying they will, but if they did) then it should not be for the West to make any protest about that just because we might believe it is letting Putin off the hook. Even though in my opinion it would be.
The Ukraine gets to say. The EU and NATO have precisely no say in the Russian surrender talks.
David Crockett : [Crockett is about to be executed by the Mexicans] You tell the general I'm willing to discuss the terms of surrender. You tell him; if he'll order his men to put down their weapons and line up, I'll take them to Sam Houston and I'll try my best to save most of them. That said; Sam's a mite twitchy, so no promises.
If I've got Nick Palmer at my back with his 12-bore..
12 bore? I get my chaps to bring this
You've posted that before I think.
Was it ever fired? The guy pulling the trigger would have probably been killed from the recoil.
It depended on the ammo he Putin.
It's a punt gun. You bolt it to a small boat - a punt. Point the *boat* at a flock of birds. Pull the trigger. The whole boat recoils. Then you pole over to the flock of dead birds.
EDIT:
Seem unsporting - feels like the animals should sometimes have a chance.
The practice was banned because of the destruction of wildlife on an epic scale. An early, sensible example of environmental legislation.
The first picture with the 2 well dress looking gentlemen - they are actual political aides who were about to bring that into a committee meeting on Capitol Hill as part of a show and tell with regard to the proposed law to ban punt gun hunting.
The last I heard, there were 50 punt guns reported as active in the UK. That was 1995.
They varied in bore, as they were often muzzle loaders so did not require the standard sizes required of breach loaded cartridges. "One bore" may well have been common, meaning (for anyone that is interested) that the barrel was the width of a lead ball of one ounce. A 12 bore is the width of 1/12 ounce, 20 bore 1/20th etc. Most obviously do not fire solid ball (or BB) as would make a bit of a mess of the wildfowl, but will fire shot of varying size, normally no.4 or 5 for wildfowl.
lbs not ozes.
Yes, just noticed my error. 1/12 of an ounce would be a very small peashooter!
BREAKING - The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said.
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
When looking at why Russia might be having a problem with military equipment in Ukraine, look at their space program.
Russia rightly has a stellar reputation as a space power. They have an illustrious history in spacefaring, but they are being left behind. They keep on announcing new programs, and spend billions on them, but little seems to happen.
Take the new Angara rocket. Developed at vast cost, it has launched just four times since 2014, all as test flights, with one partial failure. This for a rocket roughly in the Falcon-9 class, which flies many times a year. Or even week.
Then look at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, designed to partially replace their reliance on Kazakhstan. Massively late, massively over-budget, with people sacked or 'dead' because of nine-figure graft.
These failures are visible to us because they are to do with space, where there is a great deal of visibility with the west via NASA and customers. I expect the military to be the same.
Basically: they can keep their current kit going well. Anything new is problematic. They can build one or two, and that's it.
They've also had a fairly disastrous - and highly expensive - commercial aviation program. The Irkut MC-21 looks like it will have dramatically worse performance than Boeing or Airbus, and be more expensive to run.
To date there is one order - from Azerbaijan - from a non-Russian buyer.
The New York Stock Exchange halted trading on Monday of shares of several Russian companies, including the steel company Mechel PAO and the internet company Yandex. Halts are not suspensions or delistings, and are meant to give the exchange time to gather information about the impact of recent events on a company.
I've not seen much on how the financial sanctions introduced at the weekend have affected life in Russia. The stock exchange remains closed but I've not seen any reports of a run on the banks. I guess most Russians only save in rubles, which are still freely available for the banks to issue of course.
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
QTWAIN.
The Russians are trying to postpone the inevitable by putting in very strict currency controls, keeping the stock market closed etc but that can't last.
Already today we know that today alone: 1: The rouble has already collapsed by 30-40% (I did say "only 10% would be "optimistic") 2: The interest rate has been doubled to 20% 3: Payment systems like Visa/MasterCard etc aren't working. 4: Reports from Russian Metros etc of people struggling to be able to pay because everything isn't working.
And that's just day one. With the state shutting down the stock market and implementing very strict controls.
Russia is more fucked than a Stepmom on Pornhub that is moonlighting as a Dockyard Hooker.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
Might be the best thing for us: three years of nuclear winter and then a population 1 millionth the size and incapable of extracting refining and burning any more oil would solve the climate crisis like nobody's business.
adios muchachos.
So it is all Greta’s evil plan! She’s sat there in her evil Bond villain layer, smiling approvingly.
There is no limit to the malice that Greta bears towards the human race.
They are insane. A few hits by drone or rocket-launcher in well-chosen places (and, after all, the Ukrainians know their own land, so will know where those places are), and the whole 17 miles worth grinds to a halt. A distinctly uncomfortable halt, I would imagine.
When looking at why Russia might be having a problem with military equipment in Ukraine, look at their space program.
Russia rightly has a stellar reputation as a space power. They have an illustrious history in spacefaring, but they are being left behind. They keep on announcing new programs, and spend billions on them, but little seems to happen.
Take the new Angara rocket. Developed at vast cost, it has launched just four times since 2014, all as test flights, with one partial failure. This for a rocket roughly in the Falcon-9 class, which flies many times a year. Or even week.
Then look at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, designed to partially replace their reliance on Kazakhstan. Massively late, massively over-budget, with people sacked or 'dead' because of nine-figure graft.
These failures are visible to us because they are to do with space, where there is a great deal of visibility with the west via NASA and customers. I expect the military to be the same.
Basically: they can keep their current kit going well. Anything new is problematic. They can build one or two, and that's it.
They've also had a fairly disastrous - and highly expensive - commercial aviation program. The Irkut MC-21 looks like it will have dramatically worse performance than Boeing or Airbus, and be more expensive to run.
To date there is one order - from Azerbaijan - from a non-Russian buyer.
I haven't been following that closely, but my understanding is that the civil aviation programs suffer from similar malaise to the space program.
This stuff is hard. As to be fair, Boeing is rediscovering. Or Airbus did with the A380 CAD stupidity.
It is a shame, as Russia has so much potential. But the political system and management let it down. We think ours is bad, but ours is God-like compared to theirs.
BREAKING - The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said.
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
I would expect US and UK and NATO are already doing that
The nature of satellite orbits is that the more satellites, the better coverage you have in space and time, so I'd have thought this would still make a difference.
The Premier League should say he's not a fit and proper owner and force a firesale of the club. Let him call in his debt if he wants to, but there's no fiscal transfers happening under sanctions.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
Might be the best thing for us: three years of nuclear winter and then a population 1 millionth the size and incapable of extracting refining and burning any more oil would solve the climate crisis like nobody's business.
adios muchachos.
So it is all Greta’s evil plan! She’s sat there in her evil Bond villain layer, smiling approvingly.
There is no limit to the malice that Greta bears towards the human race.
Apologise if there was plenty of discussion on it already but just trying to catch up on the day. Is the Zelensky "we have applied for Ukraine to join the EU" essentially a desperate (albeit reasonable) act of kite-flying, or is it a genuine "we've already given you the nod, just fill in the paperwork" from the EU?
I think it's a "why not?" It puts a marker down on where Ukraine wants to go and the EU can give the Ukraine am easy show of support. Of course nothing will actually happen until the situation calms down and hopefully returns to some sort of normality that doesn't involve a Russian balkanized state.
I think that also, once Ukraine has candidate status, it probably unlocks some formal processes for providing various kinds of assistance that would be helpful in rebuilding Ukraine.
BREAKING - The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said.
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
I would expect US and UK and NATO are already doing that
The nature of satellite orbits is that the more satellites, the better coverage you have in space and time, so I'd have thought this would still make a difference.
AIUI satellite capabilities are very wide-ranging. You have earth-observation (taking pictures in real light or false-colours), radar, radio and others. It's not just the orbit; it's the precise nature of the sensors on board.
Sensor fusion is king. Take all the data and munge it together to get a better picture.
When looking at why Russia might be having a problem with military equipment in Ukraine, look at their space program.
Russia rightly has a stellar reputation as a space power. They have an illustrious history in spacefaring, but they are being left behind. They keep on announcing new programs, and spend billions on them, but little seems to happen.
Take the new Angara rocket. Developed at vast cost, it has launched just four times since 2014, all as test flights, with one partial failure. This for a rocket roughly in the Falcon-9 class, which flies many times a year. Or even week.
Then look at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, designed to partially replace their reliance on Kazakhstan. Massively late, massively over-budget, with people sacked or 'dead' because of nine-figure graft.
These failures are visible to us because they are to do with space, where there is a great deal of visibility with the west via NASA and customers. I expect the military to be the same.
Basically: they can keep their current kit going well. Anything new is problematic. They can build one or two, and that's it.
They've also had a fairly disastrous - and highly expensive - commercial aviation program. The Irkut MC-21 looks like it will have dramatically worse performance than Boeing or Airbus, and be more expensive to run.
To date there is one order - from Azerbaijan - from a non-Russian buyer.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
Might be the best thing for us: three years of nuclear winter and then a population 1 millionth the size and incapable of extracting refining and burning any more oil would solve the climate crisis like nobody's business.
adios muchachos.
So it is all Greta’s evil plan! She’s sat there in her evil Bond villain layer, smiling approvingly.
There is no limit to the malice that Greta bears towards the human race.
They are insane. A few hits by drone or rocket-launcher in well-chosen places (and, after all, the Ukrainians know their own land, so will know where those places are), and the whole 17 miles worth grinds to a halt. A distinctly uncomfortable halt, I would imagine.
Simultaneously destroy the ones at the front and back of the convoy, then you can hit those in the middle is the normal tactic isn't it?
When looking at why Russia might be having a problem with military equipment in Ukraine, look at their space program.
Russia rightly has a stellar reputation as a space power. They have an illustrious history in spacefaring, but they are being left behind. They keep on announcing new programs, and spend billions on them, but little seems to happen.
Take the new Angara rocket. Developed at vast cost, it has launched just four times since 2014, all as test flights, with one partial failure. This for a rocket roughly in the Falcon-9 class, which flies many times a year. Or even week.
Then look at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, designed to partially replace their reliance on Kazakhstan. Massively late, massively over-budget, with people sacked or 'dead' because of nine-figure graft.
These failures are visible to us because they are to do with space, where there is a great deal of visibility with the west via NASA and customers. I expect the military to be the same.
Basically: they can keep their current kit going well. Anything new is problematic. They can build one or two, and that's it.
They've also had a fairly disastrous - and highly expensive - commercial aviation program. The Irkut MC-21 looks like it will have dramatically worse performance than Boeing or Airbus, and be more expensive to run.
To date there is one order - from Azerbaijan - from a non-Russian buyer.
There is a phrase "give them an inch they take will take a mile" I am pretty sure that the people arguing here to give into to putins demands will be saying the same when he invades estonia, and the same when he invades finland etc....The time to stop him is now simple as that.
Finland is not in NATO either, so again it would be sanctions only.
Estonia however is in NATO so then it would be war
Who gives a damn if they are in nato or not. Russia needs to be stopped now. You lack any morality you are no better than those that argued for the appeasement of Hitler. You are everything repulsive about your wing of torydom where the only thing that counts is you. Please go get some humanity because you are sadly lacking.
Only 31% of British voters support airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine and only 26% support sending British troops to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Unlike you they recognise going beyond sanctions against the Russians means WW3 and maybe even nuclear war, yet Ukraine is not in NATO.
Even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons and we only went to war when he invaded Poland, not when he absorbed the Sudetenland and Austria and invaded Czechoslovakia
It really doesnt matter what people support it matters what is right and if we had stepped in at sudetenland instead of listening to moral vacuums like yourself we may not have had a five year long world war when hitler realised the world would unite against him. Once more grow some humanity you are an amoral idiot that cares for nothing more than what benefits you and your beloved inheritance. You know the cost of everything but have absolutely no values.
We needed the time to rearm. We also are not ready to fight Russia and Germany etc also need time to rearm.
I repeat, even Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. If he had the world may well have been destroyed already in WW2 or D Day may never have happened and we may just have ended up in a mutual standoff (still better than nuclear armageddon).
Going to war with a military superpower with nuclear weapons like Russia must only be done to defend NATO nations and NATO nations alone
WTF are you suggesting that it's a good idea to give Russia time to rearm?
I think they would struggle to afford to re-arm.
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
We’ve all got desensitised to these questions by watching US led ops. They have massive stockpiles and no ammo issues. If we were doing one on our own then doing things like managing cruise missile stocks would be a major issue. That’s presumably where Russia is.
It may also be part of why they are using the thermobaric weapons. It's what they have left.
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Clearly I got it staggeringly wrong about whether Putin would invade. I apologise.
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians
Apologies. I am more pessimistic than you then.
However I would call the detonation of any single nuclear device in a war a nuclear war. Or, if it sounds more palatable, a war which has gone nuclear.
They are insane. A few hits by drone or rocket-launcher in well-chosen places (and, after all, the Ukrainians know their own land, so will know where those places are), and the whole 17 miles worth grinds to a halt. A distinctly uncomfortable halt, I would imagine.
Simultaneously destroy the ones at the front and back of the convoy, then you can hit those in the middle is the normal tactic isn't it?
Preferably in a bottleneck where the ones in the middle cannot get away. If Tom Clancy was right.
Wasn't a massive Iraqi convoy from Kuwait controversially destroyed near the end of Gulf War 1?
It won’t be Mikhail Gorbachev’s name written on the death certificate of the Russian empire: it will be Putin’s. Gorbachev left Russians and Ukrainians feeling like siblings; Putin has turned them into enemies, and has ensured that the Ukrainian nation will henceforth define itself in opposition to Russia.
They are insane. A few hits by drone or rocket-launcher in well-chosen places (and, after all, the Ukrainians know their own land, so will know where those places are), and the whole 17 miles worth grinds to a halt. A distinctly uncomfortable halt, I would imagine.
Simultaneously destroy the ones at the front and back of the convoy, then you can hit those in the middle is the normal tactic isn't it?
Well, a bit more complicated than that in the sense that, over 17 miles, you need to ensure they can't just drive around the wrecked vehicles or turn down a different road, but, yes, essentially.
They are insane. A few hits by drone or rocket-launcher in well-chosen places (and, after all, the Ukrainians know their own land, so will know where those places are), and the whole 17 miles worth grinds to a halt. A distinctly uncomfortable halt, I would imagine.
Simultaneously destroy the ones at the front and back of the convoy, then you can hit those in the middle is the normal tactic isn't it?
A 17 mile convoy either means they are thick or they are certain of air supremacy and have scouts out securing the convoy.
Based on the last five days we can’t rule out them being thick….
The Premier League should say he's not a fit and proper owner and force a firesale of the club. Let him call in his debt if he wants to, but there's no fiscal transfers happening under sanctions.
Isn’t he brokering s deal between Russia and Ukraine at the request of the Ukrainians?
(Presumably because he is close to Putin who was a significant undisclosed shareholder in Millhouse)
Comments
It's a reflection on transport in the North that this wouldn't be a whole lot harder for me to get to than one in, say, Manchester. Stick it in that pub in KX and it's probably easier than most places in Manchester!
The Fen Tigers needed to live.
(The Fens are a much neglected part of the UK, somewhat with their own culture. Who ever mentions the Littleport Riots? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ely_and_Littleport_riots_of_1816 )
Indeed their lack of resupply suggests that they have limited reserves of the more expensive kit.
Which is why we should hold them in Lichfield...
(well, crown actually only around 1.5", I believe)
Timothy Snyder also had a look at it on a short thread, which end with this:
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1498356805805789191
Further anticipated is the creation of a unified Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian entity, and the rebalancing of world order in a "new epoch" of Russian domination over a humiliated and divided West...
That ties in to the paper I posted a little upthread:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/22/russia-at-united-nations-law-sovereignty-and-legitimacy-pub-80753
Putin's idea of 'world order' is one in which only a handful of great powers have legitimate rights.
(The UK isn't one of them.)
I think this is developing into a fiasco for the Russian Army.
Permitted for publication: Disaster in Ukraine, Israeli Jew shot dead this evening near Kiev during an attempt to leave the city towards the state borders | This is a 37-year-old Israeli Jew who was shot to death while traveling from Kiev to join the secure bus convoys to leave the borders of Ukraine. Notice was given to his family.
https://www.facebook.com/britishvintageboxing/photos/the-original-fen-tiger-eric-boon-also-known-as-boy-boon-seen-here-after-landing-/2206470882705909/
Well obviously it’s just my opinion and analysis. And I don’t have all the long term certainty in what I am suggesting today to prove it. But take what has been happening last couple of days, world open armed and loving to displaced and desperate Ukrainians, apart from UK under the Tories, who are pondering if they can “work the land” fill some of the crappier vacancies, and even worse using excuse some might be spy’s or terrorists, whilst simply lying about their policy in the HoC
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/johnson-government-mood-ukrainian-refugees-war
Isn’t this exactly the type of Tory behaviour, where you have voters recently fluid between Lib Dem and Tory based on how unappealing and dangerous the Labour offer is, has voters flowing now towards the libdems? And if the government continues to be out of touch and mistake laden at times in this crisis, this could just be the start of this realignment of support, prove more durable long term than ephemeral war Lead rally to flag during crisis
What happens is their political leadership of the moment assesses the cost/benefit of military involvement - where one of the costs is the hit to their reputation if they don't (which would be sky high if we're talking a NATO member) - and if it passes that test (to their eyes) they will do it, NATO member or not. Likewise if it doesn't they will not do it, NATO member or not.
A friend had a job of cost-reducing a weapons system. The idea being: if there was a war where there was a rapid need for this weapons system, how would we get them quickly and cheaper?
The idea being that the stuff we normally use is gold-plated. If we were in a war situation, we would want it copper-plated. How would they do it? A fair bit of money was spent on this, never seen.
As an example, computer chips are binned. That means as they come out of the foundry (sort of), they are tested. One that has some out well might be set at 4GHz. One that has not come out well might work well at 2GHz. They are sorted out into 'bins'. Identically-made chips, that have just come out of the cooker slightly different. (There are many criteria you can use for binning, such as temperature ranges, frequency, 'spare' cache, 'spare' cores, etc, etc.)
The military have a set of requirements that means their chips are binned as the best of the best. And they pay for it. A way of cost-reducing a system? Use whatever chips you can get.
Just that one thing reduces cost a fair amount.
"I had to delete the Ksenia sobchak video - it turned out to be old"
Some actual dissent on prime time Russian media:
https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498362044575330315
Holy shit this is huge! Ksenia Sobchak on national Russian TV, on the talk show of Putin’s rabid media chihuahua Skabeyeva (it’s literally the epicentre of Putin’s media cesspool), JUST SPOKE THE TRUTH. “No one is happy to see us, bc we are becoming an aggressor”
...“Which arguments do you have that scary NATO will attack us tomorrow, tell me at least one! It’s us who is an aggressor, we are occupying lands, we are staring wars”. This is a *massive* break in Botox baboon’s media blockade, and really brave. I’d be scared. RIP Ksenia
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/cabinetpapers/themes/10-year-rule-disarmament.htm
https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498367055778697223
Has the direct impact of the sanctions been overplayed somewhat?
Nice to hear form you !
However, I did base it on the argument that I didn't think they had anything like sufficient forces and wherewithal for assured victory. I suggested that Russian military might was exaggerated and always has been. It always looked to me to be incredibly dicey from a military perspective.
It sounds like some of his generals were saying the same thing as me. But we've been dealing with a madman. Someone who has gone doolally.
For the avoidance of doubt, like Leon, I am now expecting this to escalate into nuclear war. Putin is a nutcase and he has nothing to lose.
I think he will detonate a nuke over Kyiv or one of the other cities (IF his generals comply) and then it's down to the rest of the world to decide whether to defend Ukraine as we bloody well have to, or whether we lie down and let the sodding bastard get away with it.
p.s. the human race would probably not be 'destroyed' by all out nuclear war. There would be some survivors.
#China's position on Ukraine conflict gets sharper. MOFA spokesperson Wang Wenbing sent a message to Russia: no actor should "recklessly harm the sovereignty and security of other countries out of seeking its own absolute military superiority and absolute security."
https://twitter.com/mayer_iras/status/1498264671727587337
China also makes a point of saying that it is Russia's strategic partner but not its ally. Meanwhile, in Japan:
Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister, is ready to talk about an issue considered off limits in Japan since the Second World War
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1498365287749623814
He wants to open a debate on Japan acquiring a nuclear deterrent (albeit not directly, but rather by asking to host American nuclear weapons) - something which, if it took the step, would be an order of magnitude bigger even than Germany dumping pseudo-pacifism and hugely increasing its defence budget.
Somehow one gathers the impression that this is not the sort of reaction that Looney Tunes was expecting.
But this is significant if accurate.
Does anybody know if YouTube is available or blocked in Russia? ether normally or at the moment?
"Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade," he said.
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498314321138491392?s=21
Which makes me worry even more..
French obviously do. What else?
adios muchachos.
However, it is fair to say Boris has improved, and his address last night to the Ukrainians in their church was heartfelt and he received an amazing spontaneous standing ovation from the congregation
Patel announcing that 100, 000 Ukrainians will be accepted into the UK with full rights to work is good and probably higher than will actually arrive
War has changed everything and predicting the future of politics in the UK is very difficult
Right now they will struggle to access that money or pay anything overseas.
Also possibly setting up his position for the meeting with the Russians.
Ukraine divorce from Western institutions is a Russian pre-demand.
Chelsea trustees consider resigning as Roman Abramovich's hand-over plan threatens to descend into chaos
Exclusive: At least two trustees have raised conflict-of-interest worries - plus the legal view on Abramovich's plan for the club
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/02/28/chelsea-trustees-consider-resigning-roman-abramovichs-hand-over/
https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Gauge_(bore_diameter)
Russia rightly has a stellar reputation as a space power. They have an illustrious history in spacefaring, but they are being left behind. They keep on announcing new programs, and spend billions on them, but little seems to happen.
Take the new Angara rocket. Developed at vast cost, it has launched just four times since 2014, all as test flights, with one partial failure. This for a rocket roughly in the Falcon-9 class, which flies many times a year. Or even week.
Then look at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, designed to partially replace their reliance on Kazakhstan. Massively late, massively over-budget, with people sacked or 'dead' because of nine-figure graft.
These failures are visible to us because they are to do with space, where there is a great deal of visibility with the west via NASA and customers. I expect the military to be the same.
Basically: they can keep their current kit going well. Anything new is problematic. They can build one or two, and that's it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angara_(rocket_family)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostochny_Cosmodrome
- consumer goods that depend on imports, like mobile phones, computers, etc.
- oil services equipment - without high tech gear from Schlumberger, Wetherfood, Halliburton, etc., can they maintain oil & gas productiom
- cars and car parts
They are fine for basic foodstuffs and are an exporter of wheat.
There's a strong argument that had rearmed in the late 20s and early 30s, we might have become complacent and been left with lots of obsolete kit, like the Italians were. I think the rule itself mattered much less than popular opinion, which was mostly pacifist until Hitler occupied Prague in March 1939.
If you've held some euros back for travel, you might be able to pay it off in a few days...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105775/russia-average-housing-prices-after-covid-19/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-latest-news-war-putin-zelensky-weapons-updates/
Great clunking fist time
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians
To date there is one order - from Azerbaijan - from a non-Russian buyer.
NY Times blog
I think they will find they are fucked.
The Russians are trying to postpone the inevitable by putting in very strict currency controls, keeping the stock market closed etc but that can't last.
Already today we know that today alone:
1: The rouble has already collapsed by 30-40% (I did say "only 10% would be "optimistic")
2: The interest rate has been doubled to 20%
3: Payment systems like Visa/MasterCard etc aren't working.
4: Reports from Russian Metros etc of people struggling to be able to pay because everything isn't working.
And that's just day one. With the state shutting down the stock market and implementing very strict controls.
Russia is more fucked than a Stepmom on Pornhub that is moonlighting as a Dockyard Hooker.
This stuff is hard. As to be fair, Boeing is rediscovering. Or Airbus did with the A380 CAD stupidity.
It is a shame, as Russia has so much potential. But the political system and management let it down. We think ours is bad, but ours is God-like compared to theirs.
At least he doesn’t have a hammer and sickle behind him, but I’m not sure why there’s a Cuban flag there.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-as-the-fight-moves-into-its-fifth-day-why-putins-forces-are-making-such-slow-progress-12553961
Sensor fusion is king. Take all the data and munge it together to get a better picture.
However I would call the detonation of any single nuclear device in a war a nuclear war. Or, if it sounds more palatable, a war which has gone nuclear.
Anyway on balance I think Putin will do it.
Wasn't a massive Iraqi convoy from Kuwait controversially destroyed near the end of Gulf War 1?
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/vladimir-putin-war-russia-ukraine
Based on the last five days we can’t rule out them being thick….
(Presumably because he is close to Putin who was a significant undisclosed shareholder in Millhouse)