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The Ukranian Crisis – Day 5 – politicalbetting.com
The Ukranian Crisis – Day 5 – politicalbetting.com
The info I am getting is that many Russian soldiers are reluctant to fight their cousins. Add to that the oligarchs being hit and will want revenge — it feels like Putin's overreach will be the end of him.
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A thread on Russia
It will be becoming clear to those around Putin, the first and second tier of ‘siloviki’ (security apparatus), oligarchs and technocrats that make up the ‘greater Kremlin’, that whatever happens with this war,
https://twitter.com/ggatehouse/status/1498270828844273669
Sanctioned Russian aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska calls for the overhaul of Russia's entire economic system. "We can't sit this out like we did in 2014. It's necessary to change economic policy, we need to end this who state capitalism thing."
https://twitter.com/dasha_reuters/status/1498265311207903233
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10196913/Dominic-Raab-accepted-25-000-ex-Russian-banker.html
Entirely by accident I discovered a Kharkiv born Ukrainian photographer a couple of months ago, Boris Mikhailov. A lot of his pictures of Kharkiv and its people reminded me of my beloved Glasgow, a slight note of Raymond Depardon and his seminal photos of Glasgow from 1980. Worth a look if that sort of thing interests you, quite an insight into the post Soviet world in the region in any case.
This could be from down The Barras at any time in the last 50 years.
Not much I would have thought.
And this after her disastrous Moscow trip, and she still has a chorus of defenders on here. Can only assume she is the "type" for a certain demographic of elderly gent
Kharkiv under attack. Words fail.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498286881544577024
Zelenskyy has been truly heroic but Boris, Truss, Biden, Macron and now even Olaf plus many more have all had a role to play in this conflict and the West is standing up to Putin brilliantly.
For someone whose MO for decades was to turn the West against each other, Putin had completely screwed up and United the West against a common adversary: him.
I agree with you entirely but Russia's Useful Green Idiots have been opposing the bit in bold.
@Richard_Tyndall is 100% right we need hydrocarbons to get us through the transition to clean energy and we should be developing our own instead of importing it from Putin and Sheiks.
The loony elements of the Green movement oppose any and all exploration and extraction of domestic hydrocarbons. That does play into the hands of the likes of Putin who simply ignore those loons and do as they please.
Dixiedean:
One may say the same about those who have fought tooth and nail to prevent anything to restrict the demand side.
We hear surprisingly little about that from the other side.
It's going to take both to get anywhere near.
This should not be taken as an isolated incident. This is a clear sign that Kremlin's reputation cost is now literally 0. And this means a nuclear strike is becoming realistic.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498292779222458372
He is right.
However....
Guidance, I have always assumed, to ensure that people died busy rather than in mass panic.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1498292570434293767
Dozens of civilians have been killed and hundreds more injured during heavy Russian shelling of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian officials say.
Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to Kyiv's interior minister, wrote on Facebook that Moscow's troops had bombarded residential areas with Grad missiles, saying: "Dozens have been killed and hundreds wounded!
""The whole world must see this horror! Death to the occupiers!"
"It is not possible at this stage to say exactly how many civilians have been killed so far. The UN Human Rights chief Michelle Bachelet said earlier today that at least 102 civilians had been killed, with a further 304 people injured.
"Most of these civilians were killed by explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multi-launch rocket systems, and air strikes. The real figures are, I fear, considerably higher," Bachlet said.
Those fighting tooth and nail to prevent any restrictions are a myth that haven't existed for decades. In the past decade we've gone from a plurality of electricity coming from coal (2012) to next to none.
In the past decade we've gone from next to no wind energy to developing it as fast as is pretty reasonably possible.
Carbon emissions are falling fast and only lunatics are opposed to that but those are now largely invented shadows not real people.
What is real is the objections to fracking, to Cambo, to exploration and extraction in the North Sea etc.
A global "psychic" effort to help remove or or kill him would certainly do no harm, if nothing else.
To make it work, the government needs incentives for people to agree for their areas to be fracked.
The match felt like it was partaking in 'edging' (google it, if you are not at work) with all the excitement delayed indefinitely.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/02/28/laugh-carabao-cup-final-funniest-football-match-living-memory/
Seriously, don't google it on a work machine, just head over to Urban Dictionary.
As Leon pointed out earlier, humans can go through contortions that would make a gymnast wince in order to maintain an illusion of consistency.
We shouldn't discount someone's views because they previously thought something else. "I've now changed my mind" shouldn't be an admission of defeat either here or in wider public life.
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1498295455343644677
We don't even have enough hydrocarbons for today without having to pay the Sheikhs and Putin etc let alone for the entire transition.
We need to invest in extracting our own hydrocarbons to uncouple ourselves from unsavoury overseas characters as an interim solution and invest in long-term zero carbon solutions.
The problem with you and your style is you let the fictional, idealised perfect be the enemy of the good but realistic option.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/27/cpac-straw-poll-trump-desantis-00012138
Looks as though they buy the 'it wouldn't have happened if I were President' illogic.
Imagine you’re Putin. You’re losing. Or the only way you can win is by grotesque brutality. The west is already United against you.
Then you might as well go the whole hog and launch a tactical nuke on some medium sized Ukrainian city. Instantly terrorising the entire country, winning the war in a stroke, striking deep fear into the west, and you kind of gain everything
The madman theory. I can easily see him doing it. And how would we respond? We would not fire nukes back
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wBUYG6_YMI
Hong Kong's deaths/million chart doing that thing where you think you should put it on a log scale but then realise it's already on a log scale.
Doubling time ~48 hours.
Leading indicator of cases - on similar trajectory.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1498266097161846791
However incentivising areas that get fracked is a very good idea, and is what the Americans have done very successfully.
Anyway, I think Putin can achieve this kind of impact without nukes if he does a full artillery bombardment/chemical attack on Kharkiv.
Omicron you can't beat it, unless you go Viagra hard lockdown for month at a time.
There's been an awful lot of that.
That will have to come. If we are to get anywhere near not relying on foreign energy sources.
Is his fee denominated in roubles?
https://twitter.com/Queen_UK/status/1498292668828426254?s=20&t=at4Kf2N67UxbjDQeSBNxpQ
What we should be doing is investing in new technologies so that driving and flying is clean and that we have been doing very well. Making cars progressively more fuel efficient and cleaner to the point zero-carbon driving is a realistic option - and that will require roads.
It’s official - 🇺🇦 Snake Island sailors are alive, Navy confirms.
They were taken prisoner by Russia.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498266613002424325
if not already noted
Breaking: The International Olympic Committee has called on sports organisations to exclude all Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials from international events
https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1498299162508603394
Perhaps the West (US/UK/France) ought to privately make clear to Putin that we would fire back with nukes if he uses them in Ukraine, to deter him from that action.
Not sure about the British Overseas Territories but I would assume they are covered by UK sanctions. That Pretty much leaves UAE and Hong Kong as major trading entrepots where funds and commodity transactions can still flow for Russian businesses, and a collection of smaller hubs e.g. Panama.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PiperK/status/1498113706693214208
If Hitler had had the bomb, would he have used it to destroy the rest of the world as he faced certain defeat?
Next question. If Hitler, why not Putin?
When I were a lad flying anywhere cost more NOMINAL than it does now. Nominal. We lived.
You are the most complete cakeist imaginable. Carbon to be reduced in a way which has zero impact on you personally because yay, teknologee, houses to be built everywhere to offset this conspiracy of the elderly against you but Cumbria is your holiday destination of choice, and not, I am guessing, to enjoy all the lovely new housing estates.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877/page/2
I was talking about reducing our reliance on foreign energy sources. I didn't mention saving the planet. No one suggested stopping flying or driving except you. I'm on about ways to reduce demand as part of a mix.
Are you honestly arguing that aiming to become a net zero importer of energy is a total supply side issue? That demand can, and indeed should, keep rising utterly unchecked? I agree about technology, but that's a medium term issue.
You may laugh at "teknologee" but it only shows you to be a rather stupid idiot in doing so, technology is, was and remains the only viable solution to this crisis.
Only going on international holidays once a year does nothing to change climate change, especially when China is opening a new airport every week. Developing clean fuel technologies and exporting them around the globe absolutely does on the other hand.
Technology is key to this. Everything else, unless its feeding into technology (eg taxing externalities so people pay for the cleaner tech) does not.
Demand has been falling for years. How do you measure demand as rising?
Demand should continue to fall, as it already is, but in the interim yes the solution needs to be on the supply side in addition to what we're already doing on the demand side.
During the Cuban missile crisis, I remember going to bed in late October thinking I hadn't quite made it to my teens. But at least we had adults in charge then. Vlad's a seven-year-old having a temper tantrum.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1498096296619565058
https://trib.al/xjOAYNI
It's temporary condition, though.
There comes a point when the power drains away from a despot and they are completely impotent: they may still carry their titles but they cannot issue the commands. If Putin really did have his back against the wall and was desperate, he would be in a similar situation i.e his underlings would be looking after themselves and completely ignoring him.
It was so bad the Fox anchor had to do a minutes long rebuttal.
But sure, tell me about how if Trump (who impeached for attempting to withhold aid to Ukraine) was in charge Putin wouldn't be trying to seize Ukrainian territory.
The anger at siding with Britain First fascists during the crisis will pass, but the anti-migrant anger at any refugees they let in will fester all the way to polling day.
Trump, who discussed pulling the US from NATO takes credit for NATO’s existence in a new statement. Trump, who threatened to withhold weapons funding from Ukraine to get dirt on Biden, takes credit for Ukrainian weapons in same statement. https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1498302199134404609/photo/1
I have never kissed a tory
I have never kissed you
Therefore you are a tory
Unless the two of you did have a teenage snog, in which case ignore.
Don't worry, he's just a bit narcissistic and doesn't actually pay attention to what other people like you or me actually believe, he simply engages in mildly amusing verbal diarrhoea of insults instead.
#BREAKING US recommends Americans in Russia leave 'immediately': State Dept
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498303955415277582
A minimum of 6 of Russia's main/best battle tank have been destroyed/abandoned in this one video. They have 450 in total. Can't be far off 5-10% losses of them already.
I’m waiting for Mr Ed’s fair and balanced take on it.