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The Ukranian Crisis – Day 5 – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    Indeed.

    I could kind of understand the wariness over Afghan refugees without papers or not taken directly from Afghanistan.

    But a mother with children carrying a Ukrainian passport isn't going to turn out to be ISIS.

    Let them in.

    I'm sure the government will get it right eventually, but the delay looks terrible.
    +1 - the only people coming here are going to be those who already have family or (generous) friends here - i.e. just those with some ties to the UK.

    Most Ukrainians will want to be closer to home in the hope that they can return there quickly.
  • We should grab at this, even if it sticks in the throat. It’s close to what I’ve been proposing since this kicked off.

    Ukraine to stay neutral and demilitarise; Crimea to be recognised as Russian.

    I don’t know what denazification means, except the deposition of the Ukrainian government. But we can’t agree to that.
    Demilitarisation is tantamount to giving away the Sudetenland all over again. Ukraine must be able to defend itself from further Russian aggression tself, or as part of NATO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    Foss said:

    One man, one vote...
    How do you do first past the post when there are no posts left standing?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    They're recognised as independent states by Russia. I assume the omission is because Russia considers it's troops there to not be on Ukranian soil, therefore there is nothing to discuss regarding these territories between Russia and Ukraine - that would be a matter between LPR, DPR and Ukraine.... ; whereas Crimea is, in Russia's facts part of Russia.
    You'd think so, but then I'd still expect recognition if to be included as a demand.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    We should grab at this, even if it sticks in the throat. It’s close to what I’ve been proposing since this kicked off.

    Ukraine to stay neutral and demilitarise; Crimea to be recognised as Russian.

    I don’t know what denazification means, except the deposition of the Ukrainian government. But we can’t agree to that.
    Ukraine has just been invaded and has given Russia a bloody nose. The price for their peace is to give up all their weapons? Putin wants to reunify Russia with Belarus and Ukraine against the wills of their people. Why wouldn't Russia just wait for them to get rid of their weapons and invade again?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    HYUFD said:

    Even 100,000 is pushing the limits of public opinion, just 9% of British voters want to take 100s of thousands of Ukranian refugees
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1497568020738289672?s=20&t=iNWnFDJP8iiVnvl_CMZy-Q
    In a matter of days, we were able to build Nightingale hospitals for tens of thousands that were never even used. We can afford beds for a few hundred thousand Ukrainians.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    rcs1000 said:

    Why does Putin always sit a dozen yards from people he is having meetings with?

    It looks seriously weird.

    The current theory is that he's got a serious degenerative disease and exposure to COVID might finish him off for good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,089
    theProle said:

    Trouble with this, is that knowing the average Local Authority, they'll waste the entire windfall on some ill thought-out scheme to invest in Dutch tulips, and end up demanding a council tax increase instead.

    A better system would be that say 80% of the windfall was distributed as a council tax reduction (but in no way controlled by the council), and 20% went directly to the council budget. That would provide the right incentives all round, but prevent local councils from doing too much stupid stuff with the windfall. (This would be a better arrangement than all the S106 planning stuff too).

    The irony with fracking is that there is virtually nothing for the nimby's to get excided about anyway - if it didn't need lots of planning consent etc, they would never even notice it happening - it's just that somehow the crusties have convinced the world fracking will result in the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing on the street.
    Wow,

    This is wrong on two counts.

    Firstly, there's no windfall right now as fracking is not currently economic in the UK.

    Secondly, I have spent an awful lot of time around this industry, and holy fuck you would notice. Getting the rig into position. Drilling 24 hours a day. And then the sound of the diesel compressors getting the water pressure up. Yeah, you'd notice.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited February 2022
    Latest prediction forecasts a post-war Tory majority of 21:

    https://twitter.com/Mr_John_Oxley/status/1498318853507538945
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    HYUFD said:

    Immigration policy is determined for the whole UK not just 1 county, not least as Priti Patel is an Essex MP.

    Any refugees would be divided equally between each UK region
    As opposed to unequally, with more going to, eg, Glasgow or Oldham? Accommodation being cheaper in such places.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    biggles said:

    Nothing to do with us whether Ukraine wants to be neutral or renounce it’s claim Crimea on. However it is our job to support Ukraine in not agreeing to do such things under duress with a gun to its head.
    Bollocks it is nothing to do with us.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    rcs1000 said:

    I could see Crimea being ceded too.

    But ultimately (2) is a complete non-starter.
    How do you denazi something that's not particularly Nazi? (*) Particularly when the side demanding denazification are behaving much more like nazis than the side they want denazified?

    As for demitilitirisation: why should Ukraine demilitarise?

    When doing a search for this, I just came across the following from TASS. They're obsessed with Nazis.

    "Russian army’s main clashes in Ukraine are with neo-Nazis - Putin
    Russian President stressed that the Ukrainian nationalists were playing the role of the army’s ‘blocking detachments’"

    https://tass.com/russia/1411363

    (*) Yes, I know Ukraine has a problem with neo-Nazis. But there's no way the state is Nazi.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    It's all OK except the demilitarisation and "denazification" bit, whatever that's means. He's going to have stick that, because the Ukrainians would never accept it.
    I can't agree to that. Putin would be getting a win i.e recognition of Crimea after starting a totally unprovoked war. And it's very precious of him to talk about Russia's security concerns. What about Ukraine's?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, I think @MrEd is partly right. I think the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan told Putin that the US was not up for a fight.

    What Putin got wrong is that Biden is an old cold war warrior, who sees Russia as a threat, and who is a big supporter of NATO.

    It is also worth noting that Russia did invade Ukraine on Trump's watch. The breakaway areas in the East were invaded by Russian troops on Trump's watch, and he did absolutely nothing.
    Did Trump try to blackmail Ukraine's government for security support in exchange for faked evidence against Biden's family before or after the Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    A good outcome for HYUFD. A Conservative Government remains in power. But only so long as those MPs remain in their constituencies and he is at a reunion convention in Aberystwyth when the curtain falls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    You'd think so, but then I'd still expect recognition if to be included as a demand.
    But that would be a demand from DPR/LPR themselves. By not bringing it to the table, Putin (In his mind) reserves the right to move troops there at will. Recognition of the republics would be a seperate negotiation between those republics and Ukraine....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited February 2022

    I can't agree to that. Putin would be getting a win i.e recognition of Crimea after starting a totally unprovoked war. And it's very precious of him to talk about Russia's security concerns. What about Ukraine's?
    Sadly, geopolitics isn’t “fair”.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited February 2022
    Eabhal said:

    You reckon Putin is breathlessly waiting on every Truss tweet, moving Russian subs into position based on the number of flags in the background?
    It's just that in a tense and worrying crisis she seems to be in this different place - the one called LizTrussfornextConLeaderland - and it's not what you want. It's fair to express that opinion, I think, even with a war on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    rcs1000 said:

    Why should Ukraine lay down its weapons?

    I mean, I can see the other things - no NATO (fine) and Crimea should never have been part of Ukraine.

    But ultimately, Russia doesn't get to choose its neighbour government, or whether they are allowed an army - especially when it is Russia who goes around invading other countries.
    Demilitarisation of Ukraine is a non-starter.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Why should Ukraine lay down its weapons?

    I mean, I can see the other things - no NATO (fine) and Crimea should never have been part of Ukraine.

    But ultimately, Russia doesn't get to choose its neighbour government, or whether they are allowed an army - especially when it is Russia who goes around invading other countries.
    It is choosing, though. It’s choosing right now.
    I know it sticks in the liberal craw (and I’m much more liberal than you), but if we want to avoid more butchery…

    In the first instance this is a judgment call for Ukraine, but it is NATO’s weaponry and US/EU economic heft that are Ukraine are calling upon here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Pulpstar said:

    But that would be a demand from DPR/LPR themselves. By not bringing it to the table, Putin (In his mind) reserves the right to move troops there at will. Recognition of the republics would be a seperate negotiation between those republics and Ukraine....
    Edit: Everyone knows they're puppet regimes. But that's the point (For now), and why Putin corrected his spy chief when he said the quiet part about Russian annexation out loud.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    But that would be a demand from DPR/LPR themselves. By not bringing it to the table, Putin (In his mind) reserves the right to move troops there at will. Recognition of the republics would be a seperate negotiation between those republics and Ukraine....
    To me, though, it indicates it's not even a main rhetorical priority. That's extremely odd, because his propaganda outlets have been blaring out worldwide for six years that Russian rights there are the main cause of the entire conflict there. So I personally would expect at least some sort of reference to those regions, in the manifesto of demands - if that's what these are.

    If that is the full list, that would suggest to me that Putin may not even be in charge of the main prioritising for the conflict any longer. That's a bit of a claim and may be jumping the gun, but I think there's some possible sign of it there.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,380
    edited February 2022
    Nuclear apocalypse would actually work out alright for the SCONS.
    Rosie Duffield, meanwhile, becomes leader of the Labour party, much to the delight of trans-exclusionary radical feminists (or what's left of them, anyway).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    kinabalu said:

    It's just that in a tense and worrying crisis she seems to be in this different place - the one called LizTrussfornextConLeaderland - and it's not what you want. It's fair to express that opinion, I think, even with a war on.
    After your 'mistake' earlier, I'd have thought you'd have quietened down about Truss.

    These uppity women going for the top job, eh? Can't have that...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    I regret selling the caravan I had pitched in Little Haven now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,998
    moonshine said:

    Number 1 they can give as that’s defacto anyway.

    Number 3 is a paper promise.

    Number 2 is the tricky 1. They can’t forfeit their army. And there’s no reason why the “Nazi in Chief” should resign as President. A promise not to host foreign military assets but then beef up their own capability perhaps.

    Hopefully room for a compromise in there somewhere.
    Fingers crossed.
    Though there remains the question about the mass murderer in the Kremlin.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    theProle said:

    Trouble with this, is that knowing the average Local Authority, they'll waste the entire windfall on some ill thought-out scheme to invest in Dutch tulips, and end up demanding a council tax increase instead.

    A better system would be that say 80% of the windfall was distributed as a council tax reduction (but in no way controlled by the council), and 20% went directly to the council budget. That would provide the right incentives all round, but prevent local councils from doing too much stupid stuff with the windfall. (This would be a better arrangement than all the S106 planning stuff too).

    The irony with fracking is that there is virtually nothing for the nimby's to get excided about anyway - if it didn't need lots of planning consent etc, they would never even notice it happening - it's just that somehow the crusties have convinced the world fracking will result in the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing on the street.
    Visit the Fylde.
    It's very posh people with 4 and 5 bedroom houses and multiple cars. I don't think they are brainwashed by crusties for their heavily Tory voting habits.
    Yet almost every house has anti-fracking posters.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,983
    kinabalu said:

    It's just that in a tense and worrying crisis she seems to be in this different place - the one called LizTrussfornextConLeaderland - and it's not what you want. It's fair to express that opinion, I think, even with a war on.
    True.

    I'm just hyper sensitive to any excuses or explanations for Putin's actions. Some parts of right wing Twitter were celebrating Putin's threat of nuclear war: "told you we shouldn't have pissed him off!".

    At the same time, I'm pretty nervous about us getting a bit too involved in Ukraine and really setting him off. These drone strikes are just devastating the Russian columns and it's utterly humiliating.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    We should grab at this, even if it sticks in the throat. It’s close to what I’ve been proposing since this kicked off.

    Ukraine to stay neutral and demilitarise; Crimea to be recognised as Russian.

    I don’t know what denazification means, except the deposition of the Ukrainian government. But we can’t agree to that.
    According to the Russians, the Ukrainian population has been brainwashed by nationalism and needs to be occupied like post-war Germany.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    It is choosing, though. It’s choosing right now.
    I know it sticks in the liberal craw (and I’m much more liberal than you), but if we want to avoid more butchery…

    In the first instance this is a judgment call for Ukraine, but it is NATO’s weaponry and US/EU economic heft that are Ukraine are calling upon here.
    What about we do a swap? - Ukraine is left alone. Putin can have New Zealand.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    edited February 2022

    Nuclear apocalypse would actually work out alright for the SCONS.
    Rosie Duffield, meanwhile, becomes leader of the Labour party, much to the delight of trans-exclusionary radical feminists (or what's left of them, anyway).
    It does look like EURef2 might go the way of rejoin. Every mushroom cloud has a silver lining...
  • MaxPB said:

    Demilitarisation of Ukraine is a non-starter.
    After this, so should neutrality be.

    After this, Ukraine ought to be expedited into NATO to prevent a re-run of this ever happening again.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814
    edited February 2022

    How long would it take for us or the Germans to get other measures in place for next winter to ensure security of supply? LNG is going to be in short supply for delivery, and you can't just build coal plants or enough renewables that quickly. In the case of Germany, they'll have to build terminals - how long would that take?

    Whatever, I cannot see many countries taking much gas from Germany in the medium term unless te terms are *very* good. You don't want them to just switch off the tap.
    Doable on my understanding, but eyewateringly expensive. Means filling every storage facility with top dollar LNG over the summer months to get through next winter. Good thing though is every subsequent winter will be easier.

    I think they need to get their chequebooks out for storage for next winter. Six months moratorium on Russian gas, then they can take a view on whether to switch supplies back on in the Autumn.

    As @rcs1000 says, lucky for us the invasion wasn't earlier. Thank Xi and his Olympics.
  • Cookie said:

    But it's not obvious that we would be avoiding more butchery.
    Ukraine lays down its weapons. Russia pauses briefly, then reinvades, and is able to visit considerably more butchery due to a lack of Ukrainian defence. We're into ethnic cleansing scenarios.
    And then Russia, empowered, moves on to Estonia...
    "Please lay down your arms and wait patiently for the Second Russian-Ukraine War, currently scheduled for 2029."
  • Demilitarization of Ukraine would either be capitulation or very dangerous. If it is not simply capitulation then it will have to have international guarantors. If it has international guarantors that include NATO or countries in NATO then Russian separatists could provoke unrest leading to WW3 as the guarantors would have to act if there was a future Russian incursion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    After this, so should neutrality be.

    After this, Ukraine ought to be expedited into NATO to prevent a re-run of this ever happening again.
    Perhaps the US could give Russia a taste of its own medicine and hold a US-China summit in order to propose the Finlandisation of Russia.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    Just had a little fun spamming the Russian embassy email links.

    I think I might do that daily.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    Leon said:

    Hmm. How big is that base?


    Polls say 85% of Americans are appalled by Putin's invasion. The other 15% are probably too zonked on Fentanyl to care

    That's not a great base for a Putin-lovin' Epstein-huggin' weirdo with orange hair to win the nomination, when the Republicans surely know they have a much better chance of actually seizing the White House with a more sensible candidate
    I'm not convinced. They are appalled, but not enough to change their tune on Biden. They've swallowed sillier arguments than Trump pretending he is not a Putin fan. Theyll lap up his talk of it not happening on his watch.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    After this, so should neutrality be.

    After this, Ukraine ought to be expedited into NATO to prevent a re-run of this ever happening again.
    Additionally of course, next year Putin will have fresh demands, will identify agreement 'breaches', etc...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited February 2022
    Cookie said:

    But it's not obvious that we would be avoiding more butchery.
    Ukraine lays down its weapons. Russia pauses briefly, then reinvades, and is able to visit considerably more butchery due to a lack of Ukrainian defence. We're into ethnic cleansing scenarios.
    And then Russia, empowered, moves on to Estonia...
    Well we have lines. Estonia is in NATO.
    We’re disagreeing about where the line is perhaps.

    Should “ethnic cleansing” commence, that is another line.

    But these things haven’t happened and Putin is not threatening them.

    I’m very very very interested in how to stop the current crisis. If Putin is making an offer here we should focus on whether we can agree a deal.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    After this, so should neutrality be.

    After this, Ukraine ought to be expedited into NATO to prevent a re-run of this ever happening again.
    Job 1: ensure the people (and non cockroach animals) of the world live through to summer.
    Job 2: figure out how to stop a re-invasion of Ukraine.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,276
    edited February 2022
    MaxPB said:

    One reason I disagreed with Cyclefree on the City x Russia is the next round of sanctions. Having a huge market share of international finance, even from the dodgier countries like Russia, gives us a lot of latent power. Today we've locked Russian companies out of our capital markets and derivatives clearing. Russian companies won't make payroll within weeks if this continues. The Russian government looks set to be locked out of selling bonds in London as well, that means the soldiers are going to go without being paid within weeks.

    If we had taken a hard line stance over this Russia would have already cultivated alternative capital sources and markets which we would have no control over and no ability to curb.

    The whole moaning about the City being hooked on Russian money and Londongrad etc... is a really bad take because allowing it to go through London gives us this power over the Russian and other economies that we wouldn't otherwise have. As Putin has now realised the British government has got it's boot on the neck of the Russian economy. Had we listened to the morons who kept saying we shouldn't allow this business to take place in London we'd simply be hoping that the Singapore government would do it or the Chinese would order the HK executive to block it.

    Well said.

    By being the world capital of finance we have their wallets in a vice that we can, when we choose, weaponise and clamp down upon. If we unilaterally abandoned that position, the finance would go elsewhere and the ability to sanction them would too.

    There is an excellent piece in the FT today breaking down Russian Central Bank sovereign reserves and how they can be sanctioned. TL;DR summary: the UK and USA combined have a lot of power to weaponise, sanction and disrupt hundreds of billions of Russian state-owned reserves.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    What about we do a swap? - Ukraine is left alone. Putin can have New Zealand.
    Interesting fact: Putin went to NZ in the 90s I think as a “shoe salesman”.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    dixiedean said:

    Visit the Fylde.
    It's very posh people with 4 and 5 bedroom houses and multiple cars. I don't think they are brainwashed by crusties for their heavily Tory voting habits.
    Yet almost every house has anti-fracking posters.
    I don’t get the Fylde. Isn’t it next to Blackpool? Where is the money coming from?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    Re; Putin still being able to roll through quickly, I don't think so. Russian domination of Ukraine within a few days now is only possible with the use of massive bombardments and massive casualties. His credibility internally is already teetering, and may well be destroyed in that case.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,998
    Hungarian FM Szijjarto refused the use of Hungarian territory to transport lethal weapons to Ukraine,

    "Such deliveries might become targets of hostile military action... we have to ensure the security of Hungary ... that we are not getting involved in that war," Szijjarto said

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1498317093799964674
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    I don't think so. Russian domination of Ukraine within a few days now is only possible for the use of massive bombardments and massive casualties. His credibility internally is already teetering, and probably would be destroyed in that case.
    I really fucking wish you were correct.
    But I just have dread this morning.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127

    Well we have lines. Estonia is in NATO.
    We’re disagreeing about where the line is perhaps.

    Should “ethnic cleansing” commence, that is another line.

    But these things haven’t happened and Putin is not threatening them.

    I’m very very very interested in how to stop the current crisis. If Putin is making an offer here we should focus on whether we can agree a deal.
    Your line appears to be capitulation to all of Russia's demands, and God help 44 million 'Nazis' in Ukraine.

    Ukraine's independence needs to be assured. That means they need an independent military. Russia doesn't want that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,719

    Well we have lines. Estonia is in NATO.
    We’re disagreeing about where the line is perhaps.

    Should “ethnic cleansing” commence, that is another line.

    But these things haven’t happened and Putin is not threatening them.

    I’m very very very interested in how to stop the current crisis. If Putin is making an offer here we should focus on whether we can agree a deal.
    I am sure you hope for the same outcomes that I do - in the short term a stop to the butchery, in the long term a free and independent Ukraine. (As do, of course, almost everyone here.) I just disagree with you about whether taking Putin's offer would be effective in achieving either of those.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    edited February 2022

    Demilitarisation is tantamount to giving away the Sudetenland all over again. Ukraine must be able to defend itself from further Russian aggression tself, or as part of NATO.
    And the problems with "neutrality" are that:

    (1) Under Putin's definition it would preclude Ukrainian membership of the EU, or an independent Ukrainian foreign policy. It would be effectively vassal state status, but minus Russian military occupation, and,

    (2) The whole concept of neutrality as we've understood it is falling apart as a result of this crisis. Switzerland is implementing EU sanctions on Russia. Ireland describes its position as, "neutral, but not neutral". This makes the prospect of Ukraine declaring neutrality a bit meaningless.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    I really fucking wish you were correct.
    But I just have dread this morning.
    You don't get to capitulate on behalf of other people. If they had the same attitude as you, they would have given in when Putin first massed his invasion force.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975

    Interesting fact: Putin went to NZ in the 90s I think as a “shoe salesman”.
    His concerns over catching Covid would have been resolved had he stayed there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594

    After this, so should neutrality be.

    After this, Ukraine ought to be expedited into NATO to prevent a re-run of this ever happening again.
    That relies on Russian forces being completely driven out of Ukraine and Kyiv not falling into Russian hands which we are a long way from yet.

    If there was any prospect of Ukraine joining NATO we would be a million miles from that
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127

    Demilitarization of Ukraine would either be capitulation or very dangerous. If it is not simply capitulation then it will have to have international guarantors. If it has international guarantors that include NATO or countries in NATO then Russian separatists could provoke unrest leading to WW3 as the guarantors would have to act if there was a future Russian incursion.

    It is totally unworkable IMO. And Putin probably (hopefully!) knows it.

    I don't want to sell 44 million people into Russian servitude.

    Remember the Holodomor.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814
    rcs1000 said:

    Why does Putin always sit a dozen yards from people he is having meetings with?

    It looks seriously weird.

    It makes him look mad and ridiculous, which I don't think is the effect he's aiming for. The real question is not why he has these long tables but why his PR emphasises how long they are.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    FF43 said:

    It makes him look mad and ridiculous, which I don't think is the effect he's aiming for. The real question is not why he has these long tables but why his PR emphasises how long they are.
    Do you think it's a covertly subversive message?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594

    A good outcome for HYUFD. A Conservative Government remains in power. But only so long as those MPs remain in their constituencies and he is at a reunion convention in Aberystwyth when the curtain falls.
    My parents in law live in rural East Kent, one of the few places in the less than 10% of the UK which might survive
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417

    I don’t get the Fylde. Isn’t it next to Blackpool? Where is the money coming from?
    Retirees from SE Lancs, Manchester and the like.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877
    edited February 2022

    I really fucking wish you were correct.
    But I just have dread this morning.
    The only 'win' the Russians will get is if they decide to escalate this to Grozny levels.

    From what we've seen, even taking it all with a pinch or two of salt, there's no chance that they will be able to hold any city from the ground if they leave it intact.

    I fear for Kharkiv, although we can hope that carpet bombing Russian speakers might turn out to be the last straw in all this.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,719

    I don’t get the Fylde. Isn’t it next to Blackpool? Where is the money coming from?
    Always been a mystery to me too!
    There used to be a lot of longish-distance commuters to Manchester from the Fylde (another place with a definite article) but less so nowadays.
    There's a lot of retirement there.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    edited February 2022
    FF43 said:

    It makes him look mad and ridiculous, which I don't think is the effect he's aiming for. The real question is not why he has these long tables but why his PR emphasises how long they are.
    He sits on a raised platform too. (I have no actual evidence for this, but it's almost certain)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    Strong comment from Switzerland I see - playing into the hands of aggression is not neutral.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    Cookie said:

    But it's not obvious that we would be avoiding more butchery.
    Ukraine lays down its weapons. Russia pauses briefly, then reinvades, and is able to visit considerably more butchery due to a lack of Ukrainian defence. We're into ethnic cleansing scenarios.
    And then Russia, empowered, moves on to Estonia...
    Yes. There are times when you are faced with a situation where a disagreeable compromise is the least worst option, but this isn't one of them.

    This is a situation where a line has to be drawn, and if we don't draw it here we will be faced with the necessity of drawing it somewhere closer to home later.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Retirees from SE Lancs, Manchester and the like.
    Held up a fair few sub post offices, but not made quite Isle of Man money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    edited February 2022

    I can't think of a more nebulous construct than "morality". Nonetheless "morality is just simply the view of the majority of public opinion at the time" must be just plain wrong. If public opinion is immoral (e.g. support in WW2 Germany for anti-Semitism) it is by definition not moral.

    I am not religious but I see the ten commandments as a pretty reasonable moral code. TV Evangelists or Catholic Priests espousing the ten commandments but ignoring a handful when it suits them is not "religious morality".
    Anti Semitism is only immoral to Jews ie in religious terms as it is in opposition to the Torah and also to the Christian morality of love thy neighbour as set out in the New Testament.

    There is nothing automatically immoral about anti Semitism beyond that religious morality if a majority of the public become anti Semitic. Indeed in parts of the Arab world today anti Semitism is rife unfortunately, as it is in parts of the far left
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    After your 'mistake' earlier, I'd have thought you'd have quietened down about Truss.

    These uppity women going for the top job, eh? Can't have that...
    Oh do stop it. It was my one and only follow-up and merely an explanation of why I don't rate her. Attributing it to sexism is *such* a cheap shot.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    Additionally of course, next year Putin will have fresh demands, will identify agreement 'breaches', etc...
    Who says?

    It is tempting to write Putin off as mad, or insatiable, or Hitler, but those don’t help the overall analysis of how we should respond to minimise bloodshed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Holomodor, Generalplanost, now this. Ukraine seems to have had a rough time of it to put it mildly over the previous hundred years.
  • Oleksiy Sorokin@mrsorokaa

    The Ukraine-Russia peace talks ended with no results, the two sides agreed to meet at the Polish-Belarus border in the upcoming days.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    Who says?

    It is tempting to write Putin off as mad, or insatiable, or Hitler, but those don’t help the overall analysis of how we should respond to minimise bloodshed.
    Experience of watching Mobsters mobster.

    Start slowly and just ramp the demands up month by month, year by year until you've gotten everything...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    There’s gap right now btw govt rhetoric and what policy actually is - only applies to UK nationals but that’s expected to change later today, details tbc but Home Sec expected in parliament https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1498225236638150660

    In the end no extension to the scheme today … Home Office still looking at options
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1498231845401645057
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,719
    Pulpstar said:

    Holomodor, Generalplanost, now this. Ukraine seems to have had a rough time of it to put it mildly over the previous hundred years.

    Previous 1000 years, I'd say.
    When the Mongols came calling, Kyiv was one of the biggest cities in Europe. Of 50,000 citizens, 48,000 were killed.
    Then a long slog of servitude and serfdom to various overlords.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    Oh do stop it. It was my one and only follow-up and merely an explanation of why I don't rate her. Attributing it to sexism is *such* a cheap shot.
    It is transparent inverted gammonry. and particularly puzzling in that the right, 3 days ago, photograph makes your point 100x as strongly as the wrong one did. She is a very unpleasant and deeply unserious person, and qualms about what you can say about the laydeez should inhibit nobody from saying so.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    Italy's cabinet has approved the provision of military equipment and vehicles to the Ukrainian government
    https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/1498333860504948736
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,998
    For a glimpse of the future under Russian occupation, Stanislav Aseyev's "In Isolation: Dispatches from Occupied Donbas" might provide some guidance.

    It's an account of his two and a half years in an FSB torture camp. I've ordered a copy of the paperback reprint which comes out at the end of this month.
    The camp is apparently still in operation.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Cookie said:

    Always been a mystery to me too!
    There used to be a lot of longish-distance commuters to Manchester from the Fylde (another place with a definite article) but less so nowadays.
    There's a lot of retirement there.
    Thanks.

    In my geeky local govt re-org fantasy, I’d provisionally bundled the Fylde (and Poulton-le-Fylde from the Wyre) into a Blackpool metro.

    I’m guessing it would cause uproar.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814

    Yes. There are times when you are faced with a situation where a disagreeable compromise is the least worst option, but this isn't one of them.

    This is a situation where a line has to be drawn, and if we don't draw it here we will be faced with the necessity of drawing it somewhere closer to home later.
    I agree.

    Putin will really hate Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians now because they have made a fool of him. The destruction of Ukrainian cities will be personal.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    To me, though, it indicates it's not even a main rhetorical priority. That's extremely odd, because his propaganda outlets have been blaring out worldwide for six years that Russian rights there are the main cause of the entire conflict there. So I personally would expect at least some sort of reference to those regions, in the manifesto of demands - if that's what these are.

    If that is the full list, that would suggest to me that Putin may not even be in charge of the main prioritising for the conflict any longer. That's a bit of a claim and may be jumping the gun, but I think there's some possible sign of it there.
    The main person to look out for now I suspect is the Defence Minister, Shiogu. He is apparently one of the few people Putin trusts but he has also been in pretty much every Russian Govt since 1991, which suggests he is happy to change tack when required. He also must be aware that, given the performance so far, he will a scapegoat if things go wrong further. I can see a situation where he decides the wind is blowing in a certain direction and decides it makes sense to push Putin out in a military coup (a fair few Generals are likely to be also worried about their prospects). If that's the case, you would probably get a figurehead like Lavrov as the nominal President with Shiogu and the military holding power (Shiogu is an ethnic Tatar so it's very unlikely he would wear the crown given how Russians view anyone non-Russian).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    ‼️Extraordinary jump for @EmmanuelMacron & downward lurch for Putin-apologist Eric Zemmour in IFOP daily tracking poll today. Macron goes up by 2 points since last poll on Friday to reach 28% of first round support, his highest ever in this poll 1/2 https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1498332689363095558/photo/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    Oleksiy Sorokin@mrsorokaa

    The Ukraine-Russia peace talks ended with no results, the two sides agreed to meet at the Polish-Belarus border in the upcoming days.

    Putin will keep agreeing to talks because it makes him look reasonable via RT to his domestic audience.
    His demands are a complete non starter though, so right now those talks aren't going to get anywhere - not even to mention the fact he (I think) isn't bringing up Donbass as the Ukrainians will need to negotiate separately with those individuals.
  • Who says?

    It is tempting to write Putin off as mad, or insatiable, or Hitler, but those don’t help the overall analysis of how we should respond to minimise bloodshed.
    Who says we should respond to minimise bloodshed?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Thought for the day: where we now have Ben Wallace, 2 years ago we'd have had Gavin Williamson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    Scott_xP said:

    #Parliament is working! We gathered as leaders of the factions to vote for the important matters:
    - appeal to #EU for Ukraine to join EU on a simplified procedure
    - appeal to remove #Russia from UN Security Counsel
    - prepping legislation to freeze Russian assets inside Ukraine 🇺🇦
    https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1498315548807028737/photo/1

    Unrealistic, sure, but they are pushing a strong media and diplomatic campaign.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    Who says we should respond to minimise bloodshed?
    It’s not the sole criteria, of course.
    But its a big one.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Has anyone posited the theory that Putin's desk is just a modern day Pinocchio's nose?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited February 2022
    Truss gets a lot of criticism, rightly so, but it is worthwhile noting she is actually an improvement on the last two incumbents.

    Edit: I meant Raab and Johnson. Apparently Hunt was FS for five minutes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,719

    Thanks.

    In my geeky local govt re-org fantasy, I’d provisionally bundled the Fylde (and Poulton-le-Fylde from the Wyre) into a Blackpool metro.

    I’m guessing it would cause uproar.
    It would, yes! More uproar in Fylde, I think, than Wyre. I don't think many from Lytham or Kirkham have much cause to go to Blackpool.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Anti Semitism is only immoral to Jews ie in religious terms as it is in opposition to the Torah and also to the Christian morality of love thy neighbour as set out in the New Testament.

    There is nothing automatically immoral about anti Semitism beyond that religious morality if a majority of the public become anti Semitic. Indeed in parts of the Arab world today anti Semitism is rife unfortunately, as it is in parts of the far left
    You really do have so much more in common with Jeremy Corbyn than you realise. Two peas in a pod!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    Chameleon said:

    Has anyone posited the theory that Putin's desk is just a modern day Pinocchio's nose?

    More a penis Ferrari.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    HYUFD said:

    Anti Semitism is only immoral to Jews ie in religious terms as it is in opposition to the Torah and also to the Christian morality of love thy neighbour as set out in the New Testament.

    There is nothing automatically immoral about anti Semitism beyond that religious morality if a majority of the public become anti Semitic. Indeed in parts of the Arab world today anti Semitism is rife unfortunately, as it is in parts of the far left
    Arabs are of course a Semitic people. Tell an Iranian that he's from an Arab state and you're asking for trouble.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337

    Interesting:

    At the request of the Ukrainian government, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has spoken to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the Elysée palace has said in a statement:

    The president reiterated the international community’s demand that [Russia] halt its offensive against Ukraine, and reaffirmed the necessity of immediately establishing a ceasefire.
    With ceasefire talks between Kyiv and Moscow under way on the Belarus border, Macron also asked Putin to ensure that for the duration of the negotiations all strikes and attacks on civilians and their homes would be halted, civilian infrastructure would be preserved, and all main roads – particularly the road south out of Kyiv – would remain safe to use.

    Putin “confirmed his willingness to commit to all three points”, the Elysée statement said.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/28/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-update-conflict-belarus-putin-nuclear-deterrence-order-kyiv-russian-invasion-live-updates

    Wouldn't Putin claim the first two are already the case?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    I need to really ruin a few Russian people's day. Any suggestions?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    Cookie said:

    It would, yes! More uproar in Fylde, I think, than Wyre. I don't think many from Lytham or Kirkham have much cause to go to Blackpool.
    Hospital services?
This discussion has been closed.