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In the betting, the money goes on Putin surviving – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    edited February 2022
    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    Indeed, though Desert Storm was at least supported by a UN Security Council Resolution which George HW Bush got to his credit after Saddam invaded Kuwait, unlike Iraq 2003 or the Russian invasion of Ukraine now.

    The Afghanistan war of 2001 was arguably self defence post 9/11, at least in terms of getting Bin Laden (albeit it was Obama who ultimately got him), so therefore justified under the UN Charter.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798
    Andy_JS said:

    She looked younger than her age until about 5 years ago. Must be a tough job being in cabinet.
    She's the same age as me.
    Most people I know have aged rather more than one might hope in the last five years! I note Liz Truss has two daughters - I have three, and I look a lot older than I did half a decade ago. (My girls see photos of me from before they were born and are puzzled at why my hair is black).
    I'd say Liz Truss is in pretty good nick. Though having a good photographer presumably helps!
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Sure.
    Look, we should accept that the Truss of a few months ago is not the Truss of today, and a vile deception has been enacted by reproducing a self promoting photo that Fizzy Lizzy pumped out for public consumption in a different world.

    After all we are all Ukies now.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    eek said:

    I suspect a lot of that is the sudden realisation by Germany that the world isn't working the way they thought it is.

    Mind you I do look at German energy policy and think WTF have you been thinking - there are obvious flaws here that make no sense..
    The question is whether, after the crisis, the temptation to snap back to East Politics will win out.

    I think that is a 50/50 at the moment. It depends how bad this gets....
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979

    It didn't do much for the coherence of the west in the long-run, however.
    Eh?

    I did everything for the coherence of the West.

    Seven years later the Berlin Wall came tumbling down.
  • biggles said:

    I’m just surprised they could find one with short enough legs.
    Churchill was a bit shorter, don't forget. Heightism is one of those last acceptable prejuduces.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, though Desert Storm was at least supported by a UN Security Council Resolution unlike Iraq 2003 or the Russian invasion of Ukraine now
    That is true absolutely. It helps but is not necessary.
  • biggles said:

    I’m just surprised they could find one with short enough legs.
    That's enough heightism! Macron is in any case taller than Thatcher and Churchill, though not Thatcher on Churchill's shoulders, and about the same height as our own beloved Boris.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    At Kyiv's request????
    International Jewry, doh.

  • IshmaelZ said:

    I think it triggers the same dopamine receptors in your head
    Just no.

    Its only you that seems to be triggered by the Foreign Secretary of the UK expressing support for our Ukrainian friends and allies via a photograph.

    I wonder why? 🤔
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022

    Eh?

    I did everything for the coherence of the West.

    Seven years later the Berlin Wall came tumbling down.
    Nothing remotely to do with the Falklands, though ; vast US military spending and Sovier post-Brezhnev decline and stasis.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    - George W Bush demonstrably fucked up and created a series of disasters for America and the world. To the point where you do have to ask "What the fuck, George?"

    - Obama tried for limited, achievable goals - apart from carrying on the Afghan comedy.

    - Putin has launched a war that he has fucked up. He has united the disunited against him. In a few days he has guaranteed that is gaol of a Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) that is subservient to Russia won't happen. He has achieved the opposite of a long series of gaols. Among other things, to turn Nord Stream 2 on will now require both the Americans and the Germans to agree. Not just the Germans. So it is quite likely that that is dead for ever now.....
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,415
    edited February 2022
    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    I remember at the time thinking “another chapter in the continuing decline of the West” - less than 7 years after the fall of Saigon - but it took Thatcher - as you observe - against a lot of the chattering classes to say enough!! I also recall the slightly condescending Time magazine cover of the task force with the headline “The Empire Strikes Back”.
    I too remember it. But the write-up was not condescending, rather admiring I would say.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Why, if you had such valuable goods, want to exchange them for a worthless currency? Not much use if you can't enjoy the fruits of your robbery.
    Cash flow. the lesson from germany and zimbabwe and taking a wheelbarrow full of money to buy 1/2 dozen eggs is the resilience/irreplaceability of cash as a medium of exchange. You cannot sustainably barter jewellery and cars for eggs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    There have been some weird kinks on PB, but some bloke in the English sticks logging on to comments threads at The National is right up there.
    Not at all, no different to someone perusing the Mail or the Guardian or ConHome to look at the comments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    HYUFD said:

    Unless all Russian troops have left Ukrainian soil and/or Putin has been toppled as President of Russia, Ukraine is not going into the EU, NATO or any other block as it will still have much of its territory occupied by Russia.

    If Kyiv falls to Putin's troops that will be even more the case
    I think you are right, but it's why the demands about NATO membership being rejected were nonsensical. Putin had what he wanted without further invasion.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Feel free to stop latching on to my posts to discuss (checks notes) IndyRef2 and IndyScot then.
    You get a good few unionist stalkers on here, mainly southern mind you.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Just no.

    Its only you that seems to be triggered by the Foreign Secretary of the UK expressing support for our Ukrainian friends and allies via a photograph.

    I wonder why? 🤔
    I first read that as "Just so."

    On reflection I am still reading it that way.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    geoffw said:

    I too remember it. But the write-up was not condescending, rather admiring I would say.

    There was a funny writeup on the article published by the Russian military in a journal out of Frunze about the Falklands - I'll have to find it.

    The logistics for that made a deep impression on them IIRC. Also naval aviation vs missiles.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Nigelb said:

    Aid to the 'nazi regime' in Ukraine.

    A delegation of Israeli doctors has already been dispatched and is on its way to Ukraine
    https://twitter.com/YoniMichanie/status/1498055304726167554

    Is that a euphemism for Mossad agents?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    Fuckers.

    Yes a lot of civilian footage now confirming this - Russia did just carpet bomb a district in Kharkiv. I am shaking
    https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498254899792027653
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    No, he really doesn't. Kinbalu was the one making a political point out of an out-of-context picture. At best, he jumped to an assumption.
    The point is she is a stupid preening waste of space. I would not trust her to run a bath.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Is that a euphemism for Mossad agents?
    They are very young, chunky and fit looking doctors for sure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    IshmaelZ said:

    I think it triggers the same dopamine receptors in your head
    You could have stopped at DOPE
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    edited February 2022

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Minor proviso: as long as we have Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    Utter rubbish. You’re suggesting moral equivalence where there is none. This is an invasion with the intent to conquer and absorb another country.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    Cyclefree said:

    Why, if you had such valuable goods, want to exchange them for a worthless currency?
    {Hugo Stinnes, Inflationskönig, has entered the chat}

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Stinnes
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    I remember at the time thinking “another chapter in the continuing decline of the West” - less than 7 years after the fall of Saigon - but it took Thatcher - as you observe - against a lot of the chattering classes to say enough!! I also recall the slightly condescending Time magazine cover of the task force with the headline “The Empire Strikes Back”.
    Bring out the pictures of spitfire's, polish Welington's boots , it is back to past glories time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Cyclefree said:

    Is that a euphemism for Mossad agents?
    Were they going to play tennis?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Andy_JS said:

    She looked younger than her age until about 5 years ago. Must be a tough job being in cabinet.
    It is all the partying and wining and dining they do, not work for sure.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited February 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Fuckers.

    Yes a lot of civilian footage now confirming this - Russia did just carpet bomb a district in Kharkiv. I am shaking
    https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498254899792027653

    There's a disturbing video below that tweet which I wish I hadn't looked at. **** Putin.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Andy_JS said:

    Liz Truss is 46.
    Must have been a very very hard paper round
  • Tass news agency has been hacked
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,346
    Roger said:

    For you who have turned virtue signalling into an art form.....you can bore the pants off the BBC complaints department for years with this one ....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0014qdv

    Hang on, saying women should be able to work in an industry without being felt up by the 'talent' is not 'virtue signalling'.

    Sad you think it is.

    Do you have a daughter? If so, how would you feel if she was treated in that manner?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Churchill was a bit shorter, don't forget. Heightism is one of those last acceptable prejuduces.
    Sad to say that short people do get picked on a lot. They are frequently overlooked.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,415
    edited February 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    I say it is a criterion, its my post you're responding to. As to why - because democracies give people a peaceful way to resolve their differences with ballots instead of bullets. Dictatorships generally only change course when someone compels them to do so and that typically requires some sort of force.

    Invading a peaceful democracy and invading a dictatorship are two completely different things.

    What place is Russia's? Its a relatively minor country living off past glories, with an economy that is worse than Italy's and negligible power in the world. It is a bit player at best going forwards.

    The world is indeed changing, but it is Putin that objects to that not me. Our long-term threat in the East is and remains China and not Russia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    TOPPING said:

    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    The difference is between what is a blatant war of aggression - recognised as a war crime in international law - against what (largely) weren't.

    I'll grant you that Iraq 2003 was fought on what turned out to be a lie - which is why it's seen as a disastrous mistake by large sections of the electorates in the countries who fought it.
    But even that had some sort of threadbare UN cover at the time.

    And it does not justify today's war crimes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    biggles said:

    Sad to say that short people do get picked on a lot. They are frequently overlooked.
    It is a lofty aspiration to end that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Just no.

    Its only you that seems to be triggered by the Foreign Secretary of the UK expressing support for our Ukrainian friends and allies via a photograph.

    I wonder why? 🤔
    You dunderheid, she was self promoting only.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098
    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033
  • Mr. Biggles, you should be ashamed of yourself, looking down on people.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Tass news agency has been hacked

    Confirmation:

    "@SkyNews
    BREAKING NEWS: The website of Russia's state news agency TASS is believed to have been hacked and is now displaying anti-war messages, according to Reuters."

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1498261141100843008
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Nigelb said:

    The difference is between what is a blatant war of aggression - recognised as a war crime in international law - against what (largely) weren't.

    I'll grant you that Iraq 2003 was fought on what turned out to be a lie - which is why it's seen as a disastrous mistake by large sections of the electorates in the countries who fought it.
    But even that had some sort of threadbare UN cover at the time.

    And it does not justify today's war crimes.
    Is Iraq a democracy today? I think Iraq was a mistake, but 20 years later it's probably in a better place.

    If Russia gets its way, Ukraine won't exist.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    Of al the shitty excuses that have been trotted out by all sides so far, "Liz Truss made me do it" is the poorest by a long shot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    I say it is a criterion, its my post you're responding to. As to why - because democracies give people a peaceful way to resolve their differences with ballots instead of bullets. Dictatorships generally only change course when someone compels them to do so and that typically requires some sort of force.

    Invading a peaceful democracy and invading a dictatorship are two completely different things.....
    In international law, that's not really the case.
    A war of aggression is a war of aggression.

    Of course it's far more likely that the circumstances (eg a UN resolution authorising force) to justify a war are going to exist in the case of a dictatorship. But the mere fact of a dictatorship in no way justifies an invasion.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    biggles said:

    Utter rubbish. You’re suggesting moral equivalence where there is none. This is an invasion with the intent to conquer and absorb another country.
    Morality has nothing to do with it. Where were the weapons of mass destruction; we decided we wanted to depose Saddam (and others) and we did. And everyone else looked on.
  • Sky and BBC now talking about a report on climate change

    Not sure anyone will be listening when Putin is threatening a nuclear war
  • TOPPING said:

    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    tlg86 said:

    Is Iraq a democracy today? I think Iraq was a mistake, but 20 years later it's probably in a better place.

    If Russia gets its way, Ukraine won't exist.
    Of course.

    But we were discussing the legality or otherwise of waging war.
  • TOPPING said:

    Morality has nothing to do with it. Where were the weapons of mass destruction; we decided we wanted to depose Saddam (and others) and we did. And everyone else looked on.
    And we were right to do so. 👍

    Zelenskyy is not Saddam. Ukraine is not Iraq. Russia is not the USA or even the UK.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 373
    edited February 2022
    OT. Putin surviving as President of Russia can only happen if there isn't a full scale nuclear apocalypse. If there is all out nuclear war there will be no Russian state left for him to be the President of.
  • fox327 said:

    OT. Putin surviving as President of Russia can only happen if there isn't a full scale nuclear apocalypse. If there is all out nuclear war there will be no Russian state left for him to be the President of.

    If there is all out nuclear war then how long will it take Smarkets to pay out though?
  • Sky and BBC now talking about a report on climate change

    Not sure anyone will be listening when Putin is threatening a nuclear war

    Well to be fair a nuclear war would probably cause at least a smidgen of climate change.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Nigelb said:

    Of course.

    But we were discussing the legality or otherwise of waging war.
    Presumably the UN wouldn't pass a resolution authorising Western powers to liberate Ukraine.

    But it would be entirely justified, even if the calculation is that we shouldn't do it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Of al the shitty excuses that have been trotted out by all sides so far, "Liz Truss made me do it" is the poorest by a long shot.
    Well, hang on, she is Foreign Secretary of a nuclear power, much as we might all wish otherwise. Are you saying that foreign powers should ignore anything she says and treat her as strictly ornamental?

    it would help if they identified the precise bit of arse-gravy from her mouth that triggered them, so we'll know next time
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    {Hugo Stinnes, Inflationskönig, has entered the chat}

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Stinnes
    Interesting link. Not least for the fact that Herr Stinnes has what I would describe as bog-brush hair a la Barry Chuckle. Which I have never come across outside either the UK or the last 60 years.
  • Of al the shitty excuses that have been trotted out by all sides so far, "Liz Truss made me do it" is the poorest by a long shot.
    Well yes, but Putin's regime has clearly identified The Truss and the photo-shoot stuff as the weakest link and has decided to feed the narrative. We should never have got ourselves into the position to allow them to do this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    These hackers are doing a great job.

    "Anonymous
    @LatestAnonPress
    #TangoDown: Ministry of Communications and Informatization of the Republic of Belarus.
    http://mpt.gov.by
    #TangoDown: State Authority for Military Industry of the Republic of Belarus
    http://vpk.gov.by
    #TangoDown: Belarus Military
    http://mil.by"

    https://twitter.com/LatestAnonPress/status/1498251595448037376
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Parts of Kharkiv starting to look like post-1945 Berlin now. Grim


    https://twitter.com/krolioness/status/1498264482237362180?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Leon said:

    Wait, I thought the "grim reality" was that this war was all being decided by Washington and the Berlin/Paris axis, but it turns out our own dear Cos-play Liz has personally brought us closer to Armageddon?

    Yay! Go us

    Next: TASS reveals Putin has ordered a nuclear strike on the entire continent of Europe after being called a "pussy" by an anonymous dildo knapper in a political betting website run by a balding Lib Dem from Bedford
    It's reassuring to know that HER BRITTANIC MAJESTY'S UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND (weather permitting) NORTHERN IRELAND is still so influential.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    fox327 said:

    OT. Putin surviving as President of Russia can only happen if there isn't a full scale nuclear apocalypse. If there is all out nuclear war there will be no Russian state left for him to be the President of.

    Ending with a preposition. Tut.

  • It didn't do much for the coherence of the west in the long-run, however.
    The Iron Curtain fell less than a decade later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    edited February 2022

    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    Topping seems to be taking the position that a past wrong might justify a current crime - against a country which had no part in it.
    It is a ridiculous and morally despicable position.

    He has some sort of point about the legality or otherwise of invading other countries, but he's making an extremely poor case for it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    Leon said:

    Wait, I thought the "grim reality" was that this war was all being decided by Washington and the Berlin/Paris axis, but it turns out our own dear Cos-play Liz has personally brought us closer to Armageddon?

    Yay! Go us

    Next: TASS reveals Putin has ordered a nuclear strike on the entire continent of Europe after being called a "pussy" by an anonymous dildo knapper in a political betting website run by a balding Lib Dem from Bedford
    As the melted me won't get a chance post apocalypse, can I just say: "You bastard!!"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222

    Well to be fair a nuclear war would probably cause at least a smidgen of climate change.
    It'd have a cooling effect on global temperature iirc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I did not realise that Sunak's leadership campaign was so extensively organised. Ambitious guy.
    liz's campaign. This will massively boost her with the membership.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Well, hang on, she is Foreign Secretary of a nuclear power, much as we might all wish otherwise. Are you saying that foreign powers should ignore anything she says and treat her as strictly ornamental?

    it would help if they identified the precise bit of arse-gravy from her mouth that triggered them, so we'll know next time
    We are a nuclear power indeed. More seriously that could damage Britain's popularity a bit in this conflict so far. A fine line between redoubtable ally and too gung-ho.

    Not that I think it's in reality anything even remotely approaching a main reason, ofcourse. Lavrov seems to have a particularly gleeful hatred of Truss, so he would probably wants to see her squirm a bit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,468
    edited February 2022

    Sky and BBC now talking about a report on climate change

    Not sure anyone will be listening when Putin is threatening a nuclear war

    Given how eco-bonkers Sky News has gone in the past couple of years, I am surprised they are doing special reports on just how bad for the environment war is....all those terrible emissions from tank engines and alike.

    The "grilling" of Ben Wallace on there was another example of high quality journalism....he was asked 2-3 times if the UK had sent arms to Ukraine during the conflict, to which they were told, yes, but I can't tell you what or how for obvious reason...well why not, he was asked....then asked why haven't we been arming the Ukrainian to the teeth since 2014...erhh 1) because Russia would argue that was a NATO aggression and 2) Previous Ukrainian leader was bent as a nine bob note (and there is widespread corruption there) and we only have to look at history to see how this has gone backfired on numerous occasions for the West when they have decided to iffy arm regimes against enemies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    TOPPING said:

    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    What has any of this to do with the price of fish? You sound like the Soviets deflecting criticism with "In America they lynch negroes".

    Realpolitik means that the current Russian government should pay a high price for launching an unprovoked attack on Ukraine. For once, doing what is right matches doing what is expedient.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936
    edited February 2022

    Sky and BBC now talking about a report on climate change

    Not sure anyone will be listening when Putin is threatening a nuclear war

    A nuclear war is certainly one form of Climate Change.
    Edit. Beaten to it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    The rock tunnelling shaped charge idea came out of Project Orion. Shaped charges were part of the design for that.
    Seems like when you buy a sandwich toaster and for a while use it all the time - they had nukes and were just looking to use them for everything.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    I am making no comment on the morality or desirability of Russia's actions which seem to me to be outrageous. I am however noting that from the invasion of Iraq onwards and for the subsequent 30 years the West has largely had the monopoly on interfering with nations by force and now Russia is doing the same.

    You will see and read a lot about a "new world order" in the coming days and I am simply pointing out that western liberal democracies weren't "it" in terms of historical progression. Indeed I am noting that the West has behaved in analagous ways previously to the way in which Russia is behaving now.

    And you and others whine about "values" and "morality" and "democracy" so you can feel much better about yourselves. Perhaps you have changed your facebook profile to include a Ukranian flag, bless your heart. You are meanwhile missing the point about the geo-political forces emerging today as we are seeing before our very eyes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Nigelb said:

    Topping seems to be taking the position that a past wrong might justify a current crime - against a country which had no part in it.
    It is a ridiculous and morally despicable position.

    He has some sort of point about the legality or otherwise of invading other countries, but he's making an extremely poor case for it.
    I'm not making a point about anything justifying anything. I am observing that for 30 years the West has been dominant militarily and strategically and now Russia wants to play for its own perverse reasons. I am making no value judgement about anything, I am just looking at where we are now and how we got here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Sean_F said:

    What has any of this to do with the price of fish? You sound like the Soviets deflecting criticism with "In America they lynch negroes".

    Realpolitik means that the current Russian government should pay a high price for launching an unprovoked attack on Ukraine. For once, doing what is right matches doing what is expedient.
    Russia will certainly pay a high price for launching an attack on Ukraine. Let's see how high a price. That is indeed realpolitik. Will Europe force higher energy prices on its population by refusing to by Russian gas? We will see. Realpolitik is also that Russia gets to roll its tanks into Ukraine without anyone, practically, able to stop them. Not NATO, not the EU, and not the UK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    kle4 said:

    Seems like when you buy a sandwich toaster and for a while use it all the time - they had nukes and were just looking to use them for everything.
    No, Orion was beautiful.

    The big version could get us to Alpa Centauri, by using all the nukes ever made.... talk about swords to ploughshares.....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    tlg86 said:

    Presumably the UN wouldn't pass a resolution authorising Western powers to liberate Ukraine.

    But it would be entirely justified, even if the calculation is that we shouldn't do it.
    Agreed, and that is where it gets messy.
    The ability of permanent members of the UN Security Council to wield a veto means they mark their own homework.

    But I think there is absolutely no doubt that this is a war of aggression, and that Putin is a war criminal. I'm not sure Topping would deny that, either.
  • Leon said:

    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg

    I am sure our resident Putin Sock Puppet will argue this is simply what liberation looks like....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    TOPPING said:

    I am making no comment on the morality or desirability of Russia's actions which seem to me to be outrageous. I am however noting that from the invasion of Iraq onwards and for the subsequent 30 years the West has largely had the monopoly on interfering with nations by force and now Russia is doing the same.

    You will see and read a lot about a "new world order" in the coming days and I am simply pointing out that western liberal democracies weren't "it" in terms of historical progression. Indeed I am noting that the West has behaved in analagous ways previously to the way in which Russia is behaving now.

    And you and others whine about "values" and "morality" and "democracy" so you can feel much better about yourselves. Perhaps you have changed your facebook profile to include a Ukranian flag, bless your heart. You are meanwhile missing the point about the geo-political forces emerging today as we are seeing before our very eyes.
    You're not entirely wrong. My Putin-supporting parent has a point when they say "well, what about Obama's drones"

    The West, especially the USA, has acted with grisly impunity for three decades, as the dominant superpower. We cannot complain when other powers do it now. What's our argument if China decides to zap a Hong Kong dissident in Madrid with a smart bomb? How is that different to what Obama did to jihadists in MENA that he didn't like?

    However, we can also avoid whataboutery

    Putin's invasion of Ukraine is on a different scale of barbarity (and pointlessness) and must be resisted and opposed
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,165
    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    It will be impossible to verify, since it is not like the Russian's will clarify honestly, but the Ukrainian claim that more than 5000 Russian soldiers have been killed is pretty startling for developed nations and modern wars. It's presumably unlikely to be that high, propaganda plays a part after all, but even if it was only half that it would be very significant.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Leon said:

    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg

    Jesus. Fuck him. Anything in reserve short of WWIII, we must do now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Nigelb said:

    Agreed, and that is where it gets messy.
    The ability of permanent members of the UN Security Council to wield a veto means they mark their own homework.

    But I think there is absolutely no doubt that this is a war of aggression, and that Putin is a war criminal. I'm not sure Topping would deny that, either.
    You agree that "Presumably the UN wouldn't pass a resolution authorising Western powers to liberate Ukraine".

    ROFLMAO. You're damn straight they wouldn't. Be assured that no Western power is going to "liberate Ukraine".

    And as for Putin being a war criminal in an earlier post I posited whether George W Bush, Obama (and of course our Tone) were madmen. You could ask whether they were war criminals also and you begin to see the absurdity of the terms of reference that many on here are trying to frame the Ukrainian crisis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    Leon said:

    Next: TASS reveals Putin has ordered a nuclear strike on the entire continent of Europe after being called a "pussy" by an anonymous dildo knapper in a political betting website run by a balding Lib Dem from Bedford
    I think it is what we all expected in fairness.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,165

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    And even if that were true, that doesn’t mean that we should do nothing whilst innocent Ukrainians are killed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    kle4 said:

    I think it is what we all expected in fairness.
    @rcs1000 - We need a t-shirt for this...
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,105
    biggles said:

    Jesus. Fuck him. Anything in reserve short of WWIII, we must do now.
    Yes - I can’t see how Ukraine can have peace talks when this happens. Seriously - fuck Putin. I hope we inflict as much pain as we possibly can on him (or that when he inevitably gets assassinated, it’s a long and painful death)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    kle4 said:

    I think it is what we all expected in fairness.
    I heard spetsnaz were coming for the mod who banned the Putinite troll.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    Of al the shitty excuses that have been trotted out by all sides so far, "Liz Truss made me do it" is the poorest by a long shot.
    Entirely in keeping with the Putin machine's 'words hurt more than bombs' stance on moral outrage.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    kle4 said:

    It will be impossible to verify, since it is not like the Russian's will clarify honestly, but the Ukrainian claim that more than 5000 Russian soldiers have been killed is pretty startling for developed nations and modern wars. It's presumably unlikely to be that high, propaganda plays a part after all, but even if it was only half that it would be very significant.

    That's killed, injured and captured.

    That's what happens when you send conscript armies to places other than home....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    biggles said:

    Sad to say that short people do get picked on a lot. They are frequently overlooked.
    Being shorter than Macron, I can confirm it is easy to be undermined.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,256

    Christ, it really is government by dressing up box for these people.
    Perhaps Liz and Boris are actually running sorties over Ukraine each night.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732

    @rcs1000 - We need a t-shirt for this...
    On that basis the nuclear bomb will hit London at about 19:00 on Wednesday.
This discussion has been closed.