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In the betting, the money goes on Putin surviving – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,779
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    Topping seems to be taking the position that a past wrong might justify a current crime - against a country which had no part in it.
    It is a ridiculous and morally despicable position.

    He has some sort of point about the legality or otherwise of invading other countries, but he's making an extremely poor case for it.
    I'm not making a point about anything justifying anything. I am observing that for 30 years the West has been dominant militarily and strategically and now Russia wants to play for its own perverse reasons. I am making no value judgement about anything, I am just looking at where we are now and how we got here.
    Your original point - "I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping" - suggests that is what you are doing.

    It is Ukraine which is reaping, not the 'West'. Though of course Ukraine aspires to be part of the West.

    And Russia is invading Ukraine not to change the way it is run, but to obliterate it as an independent country.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,273
    Levelling Stalingrad didn't help the City get taken.
    Quite the opposite in fact.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    Topping seems to be taking the position that a past wrong might justify a current crime - against a country which had no part in it.
    It is a ridiculous and morally despicable position.

    He has some sort of point about the legality or otherwise of invading other countries, but he's making an extremely poor case for it.
    I'm not making a point about anything justifying anything. I am observing that for 30 years the West has been dominant militarily and strategically and now Russia wants to play for its own perverse reasons. I am making no value judgement about anything, I am just looking at where we are now and how we got here.
    We could have played the perfect hand in terms of foreign military interventions and still ended up here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    So Peskov appears to be suggesting Putin is such a snowflake he got his nukes out because the lady said mean words. Get a grip.. but watch how useful brit idiots will lap this up...
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1498268580483416068
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1498266231677325313
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,023
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited February 2022
    Interesting signs of internal dissent in that Tass hacking, because it seem to be Russian journalists, possibly from Tass itself, and not international Anonymous, that have started it in this case.

    In anyone from military or the oligarchy links up with the media, Putin will be gone in short order.
  • biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg

    Jesus. Fuck him. Anything in reserve short of WWIII, we must do now.
    I'm confident that the geniuses in charge are perfectly capable of calibrating that precise point that is just short of WWIII.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,273
    edited February 2022

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    You (like Putin) are forgetting one tiny, weeny, little point.

    There is a reason why the South-Western section of the US doesn't want to secede. It's to do with how you treat parts of your own country.

    It's why tons of Russian speakers in Ukraine don't want to be part of Putin's Russia. They want to be part of Ukraine.
    The SW of the USA hasn't been independent for three decades either. Nor has it been in the past.

    Just minor differences.

    Edit. Beaten again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,739

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg

    Jesus. Fuck him. Anything in reserve short of WWIII, we must do now.
    Yes - I can’t see how Ukraine can have peace talks when this happens. Seriously - fuck Putin. I hope we inflict as much pain as we possibly can on him (or that when he inevitably gets assassinated, it’s a long and painful death)
    Polonium in his tea would have a certain element of payback....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    Kazakh provider blocks Russian TV stations over Ukraine war http://reut.rs/3vmbXGv https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498266890917101569/photo/1
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,517
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    Wait, I thought the "grim reality" was that this war was all being decided by Washington and the Berlin/Paris axis, but it turns out our own dear Cos-play Liz has personally brought us closer to Armageddon?

    Yay! Go us

    Next: TASS reveals Putin has ordered a nuclear strike on the entire continent of Europe after being called a "pussy" by an anonymous dildo knapper in a political betting website run by a balding Lib Dem from Bedford
    Anonymous?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Anonymous are doing a great job.

    3 more Russian news agency sites successfully hacked with messages about the war, to add to yesterday's Russia Today

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10560131/Anonymous-collective-THREE-Russian-news-agency-websites.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg

    Jesus. Fuck him. Anything in reserve short of WWIII, we must do now.
    Can you give us some options pls. I bloody love Biggles btw, glad to see the spirit is being maintained.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,366
    edited February 2022

    Interesting signs of internal dissent in that Tass hacking, because it seem to be Russian journalists, not international Anonymous, that have started it in this case.

    I notice that a number of the big cyber criminal crews have stated they are refusing to do any free lancing on offense for Russia, because apparently they regularly work very closely with Ukrainians.....woopsie.

    Obviously Russia still have loads of extremely well trained staff in official capacities to conduct cyberwarfare.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077

    Interesting signs of internal dissent in that Tass hacking, because it seem to be Russian journalists, possibly from Tass itself, and not international Anonymous, that have started it in this case.

    In anyone from military or the oligarchy links up with the media, Putin will be gone in short order.

    I think that's Anonymous sowing those seeds isn't it?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10560131/Anonymous-collective-THREE-Russian-news-agency-websites.html
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,664
    For those with an interest in Sweden and its relationship with NATO, this is a very interesting thread. I didn't realise quite how closely linked with NATO the Swedes actually are.

    Extract:

    "In 1994 it joined the NATO Partnership for Peace. In 2006, it was invited to join the NATO Rapid Reaction force and has been more active in NATO missions in the 2000s than some members of the alliance- namely Afghanistan where nearly 1,000 Swedish troops were deployed"

    https://twitter.com/AndrewBowie_MP/status/1498257668288483332

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,455
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    Topping seems to be taking the position that a past wrong might justify a current crime - against a country which had no part in it.
    It is a ridiculous and morally despicable position.

    He has some sort of point about the legality or otherwise of invading other countries, but he's making an extremely poor case for it.
    I'm not making a point about anything justifying anything. I am observing that for 30 years the West has been dominant militarily and strategically and now Russia wants to play for its own perverse reasons. I am making no value judgement about anything, I am just looking at where we are now and how we got here.
    I agree that we undermined the rules-based order our rhetoric claimed to support.

    I'm not sure that had a massive bearing on Russian aggression, except that the internal divisions it created made the West appear weaker.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,428

    For those with an interest in Sweden and its relationship with NATO, this is a very interesting thread. I didn't realise quite how closely linked with NATO the Swedes actually are.

    Extract:

    "In 1994 it joined the NATO Partnership for Peace. In 2006, it was invited to join the NATO Rapid Reaction force and has been more active in NATO missions in the 2000s than some members of the alliance- namely Afghanistan where nearly 1,000 Swedish troops were deployed"

    https://twitter.com/AndrewBowie_MP/status/1498257668288483332

    Yes - Sweden is more into NATO than some actual members. Finland is also quite... aligned.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    I am making no comment on the morality or desirability of Russia's actions which seem to me to be outrageous. I am however noting that from the invasion of Iraq onwards and for the subsequent 30 years the West has largely had the monopoly on interfering with nations by force and now Russia is doing the same.

    You will see and read a lot about a "new world order" in the coming days and I am simply pointing out that western liberal democracies weren't "it" in terms of historical progression. Indeed I am noting that the West has behaved in analagous ways previously to the way in which Russia is behaving now.

    And you and others whine about "values" and "morality" and "democracy" so you can feel much better about yourselves. Perhaps you have changed your facebook profile to include a Ukranian flag, bless your heart. You are meanwhile missing the point about the geo-political forces emerging today as we are seeing before our very eyes.
    You're not entirely wrong. My Putin-supporting parent has a point when they say "well, what about Obama's drones"

    The West, especially the USA, has acted with grisly impunity for three decades, as the dominant superpower. We cannot complain when other powers do it now. What's our argument if China decides to zap a Hong Kong dissident in Madrid with a smart bomb? How is that different to what Obama did to jihadists in MENA that he didn't like?

    However, we can also avoid whataboutery

    Putin's invasion of Ukraine is on a different scale of barbarity (and pointlessness) and must be resisted and opposed
    It is being resisted and opposed. As it should be. But it is not being resisted militarily by western powers. That is realpolitiks. Can you imagine if Fuckoffistan invaded Wherethehell in the middle of nowhere. There might be a UN/NATO/EU/UK taskforce assembled before you knew it. Here, not so much. And everyone knows it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,363
    Russians dropping cluster bombs on urban areas while negotiations are supposed to be taking place.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    Of al the shitty excuses that have been trotted out by all sides so far, "Liz Truss made me do it" is the poorest by a long shot.
    Well yes, but Putin's regime has clearly identified The Truss and the photo-shoot stuff as the weakest link and has decided to feed the narrative. We should never have got ourselves into the position to allow them to do this.
    Nah, they're just making themselves look increasingly absurd.

    They've trashed the Russian brand. Even in the unlikely event that Ukraine and the West gave Putin everything he is asking for, nobody will do business with them again.

    They will be pariahs whatever happens next.

    'Genius'!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,779
    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades...
    Which independent countries did we annexe ?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited February 2022
    Heathener said:

    Interesting signs of internal dissent in that Tass hacking, because it seem to be Russian journalists, possibly from Tass itself, and not international Anonymous, that have started it in this case.

    In anyone from military or the oligarchy links up with the media, Putin will be gone in short order.

    I think that's Anonymous sowing those seeds isn't it?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10560131/Anonymous-collective-THREE-Russian-news-agency-websites.html
    It reads: 'Dear citizens. We urge you to stop this madness, do not send your sons and husbands to certain death. Putin makes us lie and puts us in danger.

    'We were isolated from the whole world, they stopped buying oil and gas. In a few years we will live like in North Korea.

    'What is it for us? To put Putin in the textbooks? This is not our war, let's stop it!


    'This message will be deleted, and some of us will be fired or even jailed. But we can't take it anymore.

    'Indifferent journalists of Russia.'

    The last bit might mean independent journalists of Russia. That could be a real inside job from Tass, I think. It's now been taken off, but I think Putin's troubles are only just starting.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    edited February 2022

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
    Trying to be impartial for a moment and jettisoning my leftie-green hat, I would say that:

    Boris Johnson has done okay. Shown support: the kind of thing he does best. Short on detail and a bit botched in places but has done pretty well.

    Ben Wallace is beginning to come across as a heavyweight. His 'full tonto' was great because it got the correct message across (even to people like me). A real prospect for the leadership?

    Liz Truss is totally out of her depth

    Sir Keir Starmer, very good, very solid, statesmanlike. Slapped down the loony left too.

    p.s. As for Priti Patel, showing her real colours. What a nasty piece of work she is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    The cases might be equivalent if the "South Western section of the US" had been an independent country, recognised by the rump US, for the past thirty years.
    Why 30 years. We just passed the 100th anniversary of the creation of Northern Ireland. Are you saying there is a statute of limitations on people's national aspirations?
  • dixiedean said:

    Levelling Stalingrad didn't help the City get taken.
    Quite the opposite in fact.

    Same at Cassino
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,511
    Interesting that the paid pb propagandist has gone quiet today. I was flicking through the talk radio shows yesterday and the balance of the calls to Talk Radio in particular was a little suspicious. My favourite caller said “the last person that wanted to invade Ukraine was Putin”.

    Had a weird experience the other night. Had 909 on in the car while Biden was giving his speech, via AM. As soon as he started speaking, the signal started to get distorted and overlaid with what I can only describe as staticky babushka music, to the point where I could no longer hear what Joe was saying. Could have been a coincidence, some weird pirate radio station that I drove within range of I suppose.
  • TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
    But we never behaved like this, despite your whataboutism which you seem ever keener on for some reason, we never invaded a peaceful democracy.
  • eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    Wow. I would genuinely like to see how he logic of that one works!

    Even though I can't stand the woman I think blaming her for the actions of Putin is something of a stretch.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    moonshine said:

    Interesting that the paid pb propagandist has gone quiet today.

    He has been banned.

    That's very weird about your radio incident :(
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077

    Heathener said:

    Interesting signs of internal dissent in that Tass hacking, because it seem to be Russian journalists, possibly from Tass itself, and not international Anonymous, that have started it in this case.

    In anyone from military or the oligarchy links up with the media, Putin will be gone in short order.

    I think that's Anonymous sowing those seeds isn't it?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10560131/Anonymous-collective-THREE-Russian-news-agency-websites.html
    It reads: 'Dear citizens. We urge you to stop this madness, do not send your sons and husbands to certain death. Putin makes us lie and puts us in danger.

    'We were isolated from the whole world, they stopped buying oil and gas. In a few years we will live like in North Korea.

    'What is it for us? To put Putin in the textbooks? This is not our war, let's stop it!


    'This message will be deleted, and some of us will be fired or even jailed. But we can't take it anymore.

    'Indifferent journalists of Russia.'

    I suppose that last might mean independent journalists of Russia. That could be a real inside job from Tass, I think. It's now been taken off, but I think Putin's troubles are only just starting.
    Yah. But I think it's Anonymous, no?
  • Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
    Trying to be impartial for a moment and jettisoning my leftie-green hat, I would say that:

    Boris Johnson has done okay. Shown support: the kind of thing he does best. Short on detail and a bit botched in places but has done pretty well.

    Ben Wallace is beginning to come across as a heavyweight. His 'full tonto' was great because it got the correct message across (even to people like me). A real prospect for the leadership?

    Liz Truss is totally out of her depth

    Sir Keir Starmer, very good, very solid, statesmanlike. Slapped down the loony left too.

    p.s. As for Priti Patel, showing her real colours. What a nasty piece of work she is.
    Yep I think I would agree with all of that. Although Johnson has fallen down at least a couple of times - most notably over scoffing at MPs with military experience.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,779
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    The cases might be equivalent if the "South Western section of the US" had been an independent country, recognised by the rump US, for the past thirty years.
    Why 30 years. We just passed the 100th anniversary of the creation of Northern Ireland. Are you saying there is a statute of limitations on people's national aspirations?
    Simply because that's the case with Ukraine, and @YBarddCwsc was setting up an 'equivalence'.
    His comparison, not mine, so I don't know why you're asking me about castles you're building on it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    The cases might be equivalent if the "South Western section of the US" had been an independent country, recognised by the rump US, for the past thirty years.
    Perhaps because there was state surveillance, infiltration and repression by U.S. government agencies, informants, and agent provocateurs ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COINTELPRO

    Ditto Puerto Rican independence.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,511
    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Interesting that the paid pb propagandist has gone quiet today.

    He has been banned.

    That's very weird about your radio incident :(
    Well that would explain it.

    Yes I had put the radio thing out my mind. Normally I use DAB, haven’t used AM for years and put it down to it being old fashioned tech. And then I saw that BBC1-5 were down on FM yesterday morning?
  • Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
    Trying to be impartial for a moment and jettisoning my leftie-green hat, I would say that:

    Boris Johnson has done okay. Shown support: the kind of thing he does best. Short on detail and a bit botched in places but has done pretty well.

    Ben Wallace is beginning to come across as a heavyweight. His 'full tonto' was great because it got the correct message across (even to people like me). A real prospect for the leadership?

    Liz Truss is totally out of her depth

    Sir Keir Starmer, very good, very solid, statesmanlike. Slapped down the loony left too.

    p.s. As for Priti Patel, showing her real colours. What a nasty piece of work she is.
    Yep I think I would agree with all of that. Although Johnson has fallen down at least a couple of times - most notably over scoffing at MPs with military experience.
    I don't see much of Johnson in our response. It seems like a very establishment route so far. No major breaks with doctrine.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited February 2022
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Interesting signs of internal dissent in that Tass hacking, because it seem to be Russian journalists, possibly from Tass itself, and not international Anonymous, that have started it in this case.

    In anyone from military or the oligarchy links up with the media, Putin will be gone in short order.

    I think that's Anonymous sowing those seeds isn't it?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10560131/Anonymous-collective-THREE-Russian-news-agency-websites.html
    It reads: 'Dear citizens. We urge you to stop this madness, do not send your sons and husbands to certain death. Putin makes us lie and puts us in danger.

    'We were isolated from the whole world, they stopped buying oil and gas. In a few years we will live like in North Korea.

    'What is it for us? To put Putin in the textbooks? This is not our war, let's stop it!


    'This message will be deleted, and some of us will be fired or even jailed. But we can't take it anymore.

    'Indifferent journalists of Russia.'

    I suppose that last might mean independent journalists of Russia. That could be a real inside job from Tass, I think. It's now been taken off, but I think Putin's troubles are only just starting.
    Yah. But I think it's Anonymous, no?
    It could be, but Russian journalists have also got a history of this sort of thing at crisis moments.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,023
    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
    Trying to be impartial for a moment and jettisoning my leftie-green hat, I would say that:

    Boris Johnson has done okay. Shown support: the kind of thing he does best. Short on detail and a bit botched in places but has done pretty well.

    Ben Wallace is beginning to come across as a heavyweight. His 'full tonto' was great because it got the correct message across (even to people like me). A real prospect for the leadership?

    Liz Truss is totally out of her depth

    Sir Keir Starmer, very good, very solid, statesmanlike. Slapped down the loony left too.

    p.s. As for Priti Patel, showing her real colours. What a nasty piece of work she is.
    The sooner Patel goes, the better.

    Also need to bring in more of the foreign policy hawks like Tugenghadt / Elwood
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    moonshine said:

    Interesting that the paid pb propagandist has gone quiet today. I was flicking through the talk radio shows yesterday and the balance of the calls to Talk Radio in particular was a little suspicious. My favourite caller said “the last person that wanted to invade Ukraine was Putin”.

    Had a weird experience the other night. Had 909 on in the car while Biden was giving his speech, via AM. As soon as he started speaking, the signal started to get distorted and overlaid with what I can only describe as staticky babushka music, to the point where I could no longer hear what Joe was saying. Could have been a coincidence, some weird pirate radio station that I drove within range of I suppose.

    You weren't driving past Rendelsham Forest were you? Check your downstairs area. You may have been probed and had your memory erased. 👽
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    A thread on Russia

    It will be becoming clear to those around Putin, the first and second tier of ‘siloviki’ (security apparatus), oligarchs and technocrats that make up the ‘greater Kremlin’, that whatever happens with this war,

    https://twitter.com/ggatehouse/status/1498270828844273669
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Leon said:

    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg

    Jesus. Looks like Putin is taking the Syria option.

    Quite how flattening the country where the idea of "Rus" was created and Orthodox Christianity started is compatible with his war aims, God knows. He is evil and must be stopped.

    I wish I knew how.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,273
    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    Could anyone who can be arsed talk us through that one?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    I am making no comment on the morality or desirability of Russia's actions which seem to me to be outrageous. I am however noting that from the invasion of Iraq onwards and for the subsequent 30 years the West has largely had the monopoly on interfering with nations by force and now Russia is doing the same.

    You will see and read a lot about a "new world order" in the coming days and I am simply pointing out that western liberal democracies weren't "it" in terms of historical progression. Indeed I am noting that the West has behaved in analagous ways previously to the way in which Russia is behaving now.

    And you and others whine about "values" and "morality" and "democracy" so you can feel much better about yourselves. Perhaps you have changed your facebook profile to include a Ukranian flag, bless your heart. You are meanwhile missing the point about the geo-political forces emerging today as we are seeing before our very eyes.
    You're not entirely wrong. My Putin-supporting parent has a point when they say "well, what about Obama's drones"

    The West, especially the USA, has acted with grisly impunity for three decades, as the dominant superpower. We cannot complain when other powers do it now. What's our argument if China decides to zap a Hong Kong dissident in Madrid with a smart bomb? How is that different to what Obama did to jihadists in MENA that he didn't like?

    However, we can also avoid whataboutery

    Putin's invasion of Ukraine is on a different scale of barbarity (and pointlessness) and must be resisted and opposed
    A good post.

    We are very weak when it comes to what about because, as you say, for decades we have been up to no good. It's longer than 30 years: stretches right back with CIA-led assassinations for example. Our invasion of Iraq, which began with mass bombing and civilian deaths, on the false flag of WMD, was disgraceful in my opinion. This was Lavrov's point the other day.

    None of which justifies for one second what they have done. No ifs. No buts. No whatabouts. It's pure evil and Putin must pay.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,852
    HYUFD said:

    Is not the big problem here that the whole Putin schtick is about being revenged for the national humiliation of the break-up of the USSR and all that followed?

    And now he's faced with the Mother Of All Humiliations.

    Someone who is, literally, a comedian, raising two fingers, and saying "F*ck you, Vladimir". And the rest of the world providing an avid audience for the come down.

    This is looking pretty bad.

    Talk this morning is that Putin has so far only sent in mainly Russian conscripts with limited air support to see if he can get a low cost, easy victory.

    He has held back from sending in the most elite Russian troops and heavy armour and tanks but they are on standby ready to move towards Kyiv suppported by a massive bombing campaign from the Russian airforce if it has not fallen within a week or so
    😂

    And you really believe that facesaving bollox?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
    But we never behaved like this, despite your whataboutism which you seem ever keener on for some reason, we never invaded a peaceful democracy.
    Peaceful democracy is as you accept entirely a @BartholomewRoberts construct in the context of who should invade whom. You believe it is a critical factor. Others don't. It is of course fantastic that you should think this but then I am speaking as citizen of a western liberal democracy. In the real world, however, and while acknowledging that it allows people to "take sides" more easily, it makes no difference whatsoever.

    You don't believe in god but you are arguing like the most religiously fervent of believers. You must understand that not everyone and not everyone outside of western liberal democracies places such a value on "peaceful democracies". Then you will begin to understand the dynamics at play here.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    I am making no comment on the morality or desirability of Russia's actions which seem to me to be outrageous. I am however noting that from the invasion of Iraq onwards and for the subsequent 30 years the West has largely had the monopoly on interfering with nations by force and now Russia is doing the same.

    You will see and read a lot about a "new world order" in the coming days and I am simply pointing out that western liberal democracies weren't "it" in terms of historical progression. Indeed I am noting that the West has behaved in analagous ways previously to the way in which Russia is behaving now.

    And you and others whine about "values" and "morality" and "democracy" so you can feel much better about yourselves. Perhaps you have changed your facebook profile to include a Ukranian flag, bless your heart. You are meanwhile missing the point about the geo-political forces emerging today as we are seeing before our very eyes.
    Given that it appears the only way those new geopolitical forces are going to win is if they launch an all out nuclear attack on the existing geopolitical forces, I would suggest your cheerleading for them is somewhat misplaced.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    The cases might be equivalent if the "South Western section of the US" had been an independent country, recognised by the rump US, for the past thirty years.
    Why 30 years. We just passed the 100th anniversary of the creation of Northern Ireland. Are you saying there is a statute of limitations on people's national aspirations?
    Simply because that's the case with Ukraine, and @YBarddCwsc was setting up an 'equivalence'.
    His comparison, not mine, so I don't know why you're asking me about castles you're building on it.
    Let's say it's analagous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,779
    China Central Television shares payment methods for donations to the Ukrainian military in RMB. Unexpected tbh.
    https://twitter.com/JianRen12/status/1498121022809292802
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades...
    Which independent countries did we annexe ?
    We annexed whichever the hell countries we wanted to.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Christ. Some horrific footage coming out of Kharkiv now. Russia is going full Grozny. Missiles launched at residential districts, just to kill

    NSFW


    "Ukraine's interior ministry says dozens killed, hundreds injured civilians after massive GRAD shelling of Kharkiv *while negotiations are ongoing". If true, these are the worst faith "negotiations" recent history has seen."

    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498262958287302658?s=20&t=2kR0pI2jbJRlro-fkWgWeg

    Jesus. Looks like Putin is taking the Syria option.

    Quite how flattening the country where the idea of "Rus" was created and Orthodox Christianity started is compatible with his war aims, God knows. He is evil and must be stopped.

    I wish I knew how.
    As I'm afraid I predicted this morning. It's all he now has left. Mass bombing. And then? Nuclear.
  • What should the Ukrainian position be in the negotiations today?

    A week ago I thought realpolitik might mean Ukraine would be in a position where it could be forced to let go of attempts to control Donbas, if not an entire overthrow of the Ukrainian government and a puppet regime installed.

    But now? I think Ukraine's position to Russia ought to be comparable to that of Arkell v. Pressdram
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited February 2022
    Nigelb said:

    China Central Television shares payment methods for donations to the Ukrainian military in RMB. Unexpected tbh.
    https://twitter.com/JianRen12/status/1498121022809292802

    Wow, if correct.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,664
    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
    Trying to be impartial for a moment and jettisoning my leftie-green hat, I would say that:

    Boris Johnson has done okay. Shown support: the kind of thing he does best. Short on detail and a bit botched in places but has done pretty well.

    Ben Wallace is beginning to come across as a heavyweight. His 'full tonto' was great because it got the correct message across (even to people like me). A real prospect for the leadership?

    Liz Truss is totally out of her depth

    Sir Keir Starmer, very good, very solid, statesmanlike. Slapped down the loony left too.

    p.s. As for Priti Patel, showing her real colours. What a nasty piece of work she is.
    Boris has done OK, but I don't think this is particularly helping him either. Starmer doing fine, especially in drawing attention to Labour's foundational contribution to NATO - Bevin/Attlee. A good theme they should keep drumming.

    Ben Wallace is a highly credible contender now. Serious times require serious people. Truss is done.

    PS - Thank God, Gavin Williamson isn't still Defence Secretary...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,215
    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
    a) Two (or more) wrongs don’t make a right. Of course Western countries have done bad things in the past, but that doesn’t excuse Russia. Ukraine didn’t do those things. I don’t think anyone is “bewildered” here. We’re aware of our own history. The only bewilderment is at the apologias for Putin!

    b) Your phrase “like this” warrants unpacking. When did the West last seek to annex and incorporate another territory? I suppose you could argue France and the independence war in Algeria — hardly counts as recent!
  • eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    To be fair to Greta, she's done a bang up job in reducing demand for Russian gas.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
    You really don't and I suspect you know that.

    Someone posted here a report in the Guardian from a few years ago about Putin encouraging anti-drilling groups in Britain, its not difficult to see why.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited February 2022

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
    a) Two (or more) wrongs don’t make a right. Of course Western countries have done bad things in the past, but that doesn’t excuse Russia. Ukraine didn’t do those things. I don’t think anyone is “bewildered” here. We’re aware of our own history. The only bewilderment is at the apologias for Putin!

    b) Your phrase “like this” warrants unpacking. When did the West last seek to annex and incorporate another territory? I suppose you could argue France and the independence war in Algeria — hardly counts as recent!
    Hmm..

    I think we should move on, for the moment. There's a lot that's not correct in b), but it's not the issue for today.
  • Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
    Trying to be impartial for a moment and jettisoning my leftie-green hat, I would say that:

    Boris Johnson has done okay. Shown support: the kind of thing he does best. Short on detail and a bit botched in places but has done pretty well.

    Ben Wallace is beginning to come across as a heavyweight. His 'full tonto' was great because it got the correct message across (even to people like me). A real prospect for the leadership?

    Liz Truss is totally out of her depth

    Sir Keir Starmer, very good, very solid, statesmanlike. Slapped down the loony left too.

    p.s. As for Priti Patel, showing her real colours. What a nasty piece of work she is.
    Boris has done OK, but I don't think this is particularly helping him either. Starmer doing fine, especially in drawing attention to Labour's foundational contribution to NATO - Bevin/Attlee. A good theme they should keep drumming.

    Ben Wallace is a highly credible contender now. Serious times require serious people. Truss is done.

    PS - Thank God, Gavin Williamson isn't still Defence Secretary...
    Gavin Williamson would have probably ordered airdrops of weapons to Luhansk and Donetsk, because they are in the Ukraine right....
  • Miss Cyclefree, agree on Rus, but Orthodox Christianity is of Constantinople, is it not?
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
    But we never behaved like this, despite your whataboutism which you seem ever keener on for some reason, we never invaded a peaceful democracy.
    Peaceful democracy is as you accept entirely a @BartholomewRoberts construct in the context of who should invade whom. You believe it is a critical factor. Others don't. It is of course fantastic that you should think this but then I am speaking as citizen of a western liberal democracy. In the real world, however, and while acknowledging that it allows people to "take sides" more easily, it makes no difference whatsoever.

    You don't believe in god but you are arguing like the most religiously fervent of believers. You must understand that not everyone and not everyone outside of western liberal democracies places such a value on "peaceful democracies". Then you will begin to understand the dynamics at play here.
    Tough shit if Russia don't put such a value on it, we do, and we're more important than they are.

    The difference is that the USA and allies like the UK were capable of swiftly invading and deposing Iraq, even if occupation was challenging to say the least.

    Russia is so weak and decrepit they're struggling to even invade, let alone occupy.

    Russia are not a major power anymore. This war is pulling back the curtain on that.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    To be fair to Greta, she's done a bang up job in reducing demand for Russian gas.
    Checked out gas prices recently?
  • MISTY said:

    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
    You really don't and I suspect you know that.

    Someone posted here a report in the Guardian from a few years ago about Putin encouraging anti-drilling groups in Britain, its not difficult to see why.

    Greta is anti-Russian gas and anti-British gas. I don't see her as a natural Putin ally (or rather useful idiot),.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,779
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    The cases might be equivalent if the "South Western section of the US" had been an independent country, recognised by the rump US, for the past thirty years.
    Why 30 years. We just passed the 100th anniversary of the creation of Northern Ireland. Are you saying there is a statute of limitations on people's national aspirations?
    Simply because that's the case with Ukraine, and @YBarddCwsc was setting up an 'equivalence'.
    His comparison, not mine, so I don't know why you're asking me about castles you're building on it.
    Let's say it's analagous.
    OK, let's.
    It's a really poor effing analogy.
  • TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades...
    Which independent countries did we annexe ?
    We annexed whichever the hell countries we wanted to.
    Name one.
  • Europe has just two years to massively rearm to face Russia alone from 2024:



    WSJ Politics
    @WSJPolitics
    CPAC organizers released results of a straw poll of attendees that showed Trump was the preferred 2024 GOP nominee among 59% of 2,574 voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second at 28% and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was third at 2%

    https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1498256877792395264
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    So Abramovich, presumably realising he is fast becoming a global pariah and in danger of losing some of his wealth, is now brokering for peace.

    Much as I dislike it, we may need to work with people like him in order to oust the greater evil which is Putin? Dunno.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10559941/Abramovich-trying-peaceful-resolution-Ukraine-crisis-allies-say.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,478

    MISTY said:

    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
    You really don't and I suspect you know that.

    Someone posted here a report in the Guardian from a few years ago about Putin encouraging anti-drilling groups in Britain, its not difficult to see why.

    Greta is anti-Russian gas and anti-British gas. I don't see her as a natural Putin ally (or rather useful idiot),.
    Yes, but the Russian government will just ignore her. Our government actually listens to its public, at least occasionally.

    How much coverage does Greta get in Russia? A lot? A little?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited February 2022

    Europe has just two years to massively rearm to face Russia alone from 2024:



    WSJ Politics
    @WSJPolitics
    CPAC organizers released results of a straw poll of attendees that showed Trump was the preferred 2024 GOP nominee among 59% of 2,574 voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second at 28% and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was third at 2%

    https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1498256877792395264

    That seems to be down, though. Before it seemed to be about 75%, from all the post-election polls. Give it a bit longer and it'll be down to 50.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,273
    What's worrying me, apart from the nukes of course, is that the opposition Party in the US is showing signs of going full on Putinite.
    This has been little discussed on here, nor in the broader media. But it is happening. Right now.
  • Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Russian nuclear alert Truss's fault says Kremlin:
    MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to put the deterrence forces on high alert, in particular, after the statements made by the British foreign secretary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

    https://twitter.com/DominicWaghorn/status/1498260827807404033

    They should be told it was an OLD photo.
    Well, Truss is having a fascinating conflict.
    Trying to be impartial for a moment and jettisoning my leftie-green hat, I would say that:

    Boris Johnson has done okay. Shown support: the kind of thing he does best. Short on detail and a bit botched in places but has done pretty well.

    Ben Wallace is beginning to come across as a heavyweight. His 'full tonto' was great because it got the correct message across (even to people like me). A real prospect for the leadership?

    Liz Truss is totally out of her depth

    Sir Keir Starmer, very good, very solid, statesmanlike. Slapped down the loony left too.

    p.s. As for Priti Patel, showing her real colours. What a nasty piece of work she is.
    Boris has done OK, but I don't think this is particularly helping him either. Starmer doing fine, especially in drawing attention to Labour's foundational contribution to NATO - Bevin/Attlee. A good theme they should keep drumming.

    Ben Wallace is a highly credible contender now. Serious times require serious people. Truss is done.

    PS - Thank God, Gavin Williamson isn't still Defence Secretary...
    Ben Wallace signed off on the latest army cuts. His appeasement talk also raised an eyebrow.
  • .

    Europe has just two years to massively rearm to face Russia alone from 2024:



    WSJ Politics
    @WSJPolitics
    CPAC organizers released results of a straw poll of attendees that showed Trump was the preferred 2024 GOP nominee among 59% of 2,574 voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second at 28% and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was third at 2%

    https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1498256877792395264

    Trump is a traitor who has just been praising Putin. He will never win a US Presidential Election again.

    Americans love to waive the stars and stripes, not the Триколор
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    MISTY said:

    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
    You really don't and I suspect you know that.

    No you really do and I suspect you know that.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    The cases might be equivalent if the "South Western section of the US" had been an independent country, recognised by the rump US, for the past thirty years.
    Why 30 years. We just passed the 100th anniversary of the creation of Northern Ireland. Are you saying there is a statute of limitations on people's national aspirations?
    Simply because that's the case with Ukraine, and @YBarddCwsc was setting up an 'equivalence'.
    His comparison, not mine, so I don't know why you're asking me about castles you're building on it.
    Obviously, a precise equivalence is impossible, I said it was a thought experiment.

    There is no reason to accept your rather arbitrary 30 years limit.

    If a large part of the US wanted to secede (as might well be the case in 50 years due to changing demographics), most US Presidents would act as Putin is doing now.

    Just as if a large part of China wanted to secede, we would see the same.

    And when there was a threat that a large part of Canada would secede, rendering rump Canada split into two pieces and probably unviable, there were many people in Anglophone Canada who were very keen to redraw the boundaries of Quebec.

    In fact, I think if Quebec had voted to seceded, then the bits that voted Non would have been taken by rump Canada to retain a land bridge to the Maritimes.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Jesus. The images from Karkhiv, where Russia are extensively and enthusiastically breaking the Geneva convention via cluster munitions targeted at civilians are just horrific.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481

    Europe has just two years to massively rearm to face Russia alone from 2024:



    WSJ Politics
    @WSJPolitics
    CPAC organizers released results of a straw poll of attendees that showed Trump was the preferred 2024 GOP nominee among 59% of 2,574 voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second at 28% and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was third at 2%

    https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1498256877792395264

    That seems to be down, though. Before it seemed to be about 75%, from all the post-election polls. Give it a bit longer and it'll be down to 50.
    It was held in Orlando though so the Rob DeSantis figures may be seriously overstated due to local bias.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
    But we never behaved like this, despite your whataboutism which you seem ever keener on for some reason, we never invaded a peaceful democracy.
    Peaceful democracy is as you accept entirely a @BartholomewRoberts construct in the context of who should invade whom. You believe it is a critical factor. Others don't. It is of course fantastic that you should think this but then I am speaking as citizen of a western liberal democracy. In the real world, however, and while acknowledging that it allows people to "take sides" more easily, it makes no difference whatsoever.

    You don't believe in god but you are arguing like the most religiously fervent of believers. You must understand that not everyone and not everyone outside of western liberal democracies places such a value on "peaceful democracies". Then you will begin to understand the dynamics at play here.
    What you are missing is this is indeed a conflict between two utterly exclusive ideologies.

    One - the current order - believes that countries should not oppress and kill their citizens to maintain power, should not wage unprovoked war on other free countries and should support the right to self determination.

    The other believes that they have the right to maintain power at all costs, to treat their citizens as serfs and to invade other countries just because they think they can get away with it.

    We have to choose sides and there is no room for cultural or moral relativism because the systems are, as I say, mutually exclusive.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,555
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuckers.

    Yes a lot of civilian footage now confirming this - Russia did just carpet bomb a district in Kharkiv. I am shaking
    https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1498254899792027653

    There's a disturbing video below that tweet which I wish I hadn't looked at. **** Putin.
    Russia needs to understand that the more they escalate the worse it will get for them. If they don't care now so be it but what about all the fence sitters? Russia still have an opportunity to come out of this with a shred of dignity. We've had all this outrage so far and that's BEFORE they have even started targeting civilians.

    I suggest we take our gloves off aswell.

    Point out that Putin has failed and has no hope of succeeding. He cannot emulate Peter the Great. The best he can do is reduce Ukraine to rubble and become a vassal state of China. Sell Siberia maybe? Some might worry that this could hurt his feelings. Without wanting to sound calllous would that be a bad thing? If it encourages him to take the Hitler way out.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    What bullshit.

    When did the West invade a peaceful democracy in the past 30 years?

    EDIT: As it happens anyway we are not in a world where people have no choice but to listen to Russia. Quite the opposite, we are in a world where we can say that what Russia has done is utterly unacceptable and to retaliate and put Russia back in their place.
    Democracy? Why is that a criterion and says who.

    The West has invaded countries because it has disagreed with the way they have been run. For the past 30 years. And now Russia is doing the same.

    Edit: and as for putting Russia back in its place I'm sure we will try to do that. What place is that though. You sound like an end of history guy. The world order is changing and you evidently can't accept that.
    Says us. Unless you are saying that dictatorship is a good thing then the right of self determination as expressed through free and fair elections is something that we should be willing to fight for.

    I am truly staggered that you could even ask the question as to why dictatorships are bad from your safe comfy chair in England whilst a Russian dictator is proving exactly what is wrong with it for all the world to see.

    At least PJohnson had the decency to try and pretend he was on the side of Ukraine.
    I am making no comment on the morality or desirability of Russia's actions which seem to me to be outrageous. I am however noting that from the invasion of Iraq onwards and for the subsequent 30 years the West has largely had the monopoly on interfering with nations by force and now Russia is doing the same.

    You will see and read a lot about a "new world order" in the coming days and I am simply pointing out that western liberal democracies weren't "it" in terms of historical progression. Indeed I am noting that the West has behaved in analagous ways previously to the way in which Russia is behaving now.

    And you and others whine about "values" and "morality" and "democracy" so you can feel much better about yourselves. Perhaps you have changed your facebook profile to include a Ukranian flag, bless your heart. You are meanwhile missing the point about the geo-political forces emerging today as we are seeing before our very eyes.
    Given that it appears the only way those new geopolitical forces are going to win is if they launch an all out nuclear attack on the existing geopolitical forces, I would suggest your cheerleading for them is somewhat misplaced.
    Richard I am not cheerleading for them. I am trying to pick through what the dynamics of the current situation are. Better Kremlin watchers than I have had thoughts about what next and most all acknowledge that, as @Heathener has noted, the precedent was set for this by "the West" a long time ago. Russia is behaving as it has seen the West behave these past few decades. Does that make Russia's actions right? Of course not. But it is important to place its actions into context in order to try to work through a way forward. We applauded our various excursions for the past few decades and now are stumped when a state actor is behaving in exactly the way we have been.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
    You really don't and I suspect you know that.

    Someone posted here a report in the Guardian from a few years ago about Putin encouraging anti-drilling groups in Britain, its not difficult to see why.

    Greta is anti-Russian gas and anti-British gas. I don't see her as a natural Putin ally (or rather useful idiot),.
    For the record, its not Greta's fault.

    It is our fault for listening to her.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think what is coming out of this whole episode is that as the West has sowed, now is it reaping. For 30 years the West defined the world order. Someone out of line? Invade, depose, install a favourable regime. That was realpolitik. No one could or wanted to do anything about it.

    I noticed @HYUFD getting a lot of stick on here last night when he was one of the few people who made sense. Yes indeed we are in a world of realpolitik when Russia as is can shout the odds and people have no choice but to listen. This is what the West has done since Desert Storm (and of course before).

    So is Putin a madman? Was George W Bush? Was Obama? Perhaps. Each had a vision of a world order which had certain components and wherein actors behaved as they ought to have done and that vision was enforced by force if not voluntarily. And it's Putin's turn now.

    I don't know if you're thinking about the perception of what used to be called the 3rd world but I think equating Obama with Putin is madness. Did he sometimes use force unnecessarily? Perhaps. If people want to compare Zelensky to Saddam Hussein or the Taliban fine. But values do matter to some people.
    I don't agree with what Putin is doing ... but let's make the cases equivalent.

    Suppose the South-Western section of the US wanted to secede. The land was after all captured from Mexico comparatively recently in a bloody war. Chicano people are a majority in parts of it & there are certainly political movements that don't want a border separating people in Mexico & the US who share much common heritage & history.

    What do you think the response of the US President would be?

    And in fact, Trump's comments are very revealing in this regard. He obviously sees the analogy between Russia/Ukraine and US/Mexico.

    I think Trump -- and actually many US presidents -- would act just as Putin is acting. They would prevent the secession (as they see it).

    Of course this is a thought experiment. But, I think the forces that motivate Putin are not that far from the surface in many Western democracies.
    The cases might be equivalent if the "South Western section of the US" had been an independent country, recognised by the rump US, for the past thirty years.
    Why 30 years. We just passed the 100th anniversary of the creation of Northern Ireland. Are you saying there is a statute of limitations on people's national aspirations?
    Simply because that's the case with Ukraine, and @YBarddCwsc was setting up an 'equivalence'.
    His comparison, not mine, so I don't know why you're asking me about castles you're building on it.
    Let's say it's analagous.
    OK, let's.
    It's a really poor effing analogy.
    It is a better analogy than the ones originally suggested by @FrankBooth
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades and now someone else is doing it and we are so bewildered that we are relying on those go-to western liberal fallbacks of morality, decency, apple pie, values, usw to try to explain why it is "wrong".

    And as to your other point of course we should do something about it and we seem to be. As I also said earlier, it will be interesting to see how much pain the EU for example is willing to inflict on its citizens via refusing to buy Russian gas.
    a) Two (or more) wrongs don’t make a right. Of course Western countries have done bad things in the past, but that doesn’t excuse Russia. Ukraine didn’t do those things. I don’t think anyone is “bewildered” here. We’re aware of our own history. The only bewilderment is at the apologias for Putin!

    b) Your phrase “like this” warrants unpacking. When did the West last seek to annex and incorporate another territory? I suppose you could argue France and the independence war in Algeria — hardly counts as recent!
    1921?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,320
    @TOPPING we try and criticise Britain’s past but get accused of being a wokey.
  • .

    Europe has just two years to massively rearm to face Russia alone from 2024:



    WSJ Politics
    @WSJPolitics
    CPAC organizers released results of a straw poll of attendees that showed Trump was the preferred 2024 GOP nominee among 59% of 2,574 voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second at 28% and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was third at 2%

    https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1498256877792395264

    Trump is a traitor who has just been praising Putin. He will never win a US Presidential Election again.

    Americans love to waive the stars and stripes, not the Триколор
    The current state of Biden's popularity indicates Trump will walk it in 2024.

    The risk is massive and europeans need to wake up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,366
    edited February 2022
    Chameleon said:

    Jesus. The images from Karkhiv, where Russia are extensively and enthusiastically breaking the Geneva convention via cluster munitions targeted at civilians are just horrific.

    Not exactly what you imagine when somebody says they are liberating a country....

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498270787081547777?s=20&t=l9TWq5M8m6xktFaQYo7kSw
  • MISTY said:

    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
    You really don't and I suspect you know that.

    Someone posted here a report in the Guardian from a few years ago about Putin encouraging anti-drilling groups in Britain, its not difficult to see why.

    I don't think fracking was ever a sustainable proposition in this country anyway, owing to the fact that potential fracking sites are all so close to population centres and the threat (real or imagined) of subsidence, falling house prices and compromised water supplies loomed large in voters' minds. It was good old British NIMBYism that killed fracking here, not the green movement. The reality is that nobody on this site would have been happy to see a fracking rig set up next to their house - I certainly wouldn't.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    Heathener said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    Missed this earlier but we now have someone else to blame

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1497975596294361089
    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

    So it's all Greta's fault.

    The point is surely, that climate policies and lockdown were sold to us as reductions to the risks in our lives.

    In the event, all they did was shift the balance of the risk.

    Nobody told us that giving up gas drilling might give a madman who controls a lot of gas supply the upper hand.
    I think you have to join up about 50 dots, some of which are not only on different pages but completely different books, in order to link Greta Thornberg to the invasion of Ukraine.

    This is a rabbit hole which only the Far Right could manage to find itself going down.
    You really don't and I suspect you know that.

    No you really do and I suspect you know that.
    Look I know leftists are desperate for the 'green lobby created Putin' narrative not to get out, hence the IPCC's very convenient report today.

    I would suggest to you that you are too late. Its already out there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,273

    .

    Europe has just two years to massively rearm to face Russia alone from 2024:



    WSJ Politics
    @WSJPolitics
    CPAC organizers released results of a straw poll of attendees that showed Trump was the preferred 2024 GOP nominee among 59% of 2,574 voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second at 28% and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was third at 2%

    https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1498256877792395264

    Trump is a traitor who has just been praising Putin. He will never win a US Presidential Election again.

    Americans love to waive the stars and stripes, not the Триколор
    That's a remarkably complacent view imho.
    All signs are that the GOP will back any enemy of Biden, anywhere, at any time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING is your entire argument basically “the west had it coming”? If so, christ.

    No you dolt. It is that the West has behaved like this for decades...
    Which independent countries did we annexe ?
    We annexed whichever the hell countries we wanted to.
    Name one.
    Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Grenada, the Levant, just about all of sub-saharan Africa, plenty of the Magreb also, Palestine, etc
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,779

    Miss Cyclefree, agree on Rus, but Orthodox Christianity is of Constantinople, is it not?

    I think she meant in that part of the world.
    Kyiv had churches before Moscow existed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Miss Cyclefree, agree on Rus, but Orthodox Christianity is of Constantinople, is it not?

    Yes. I meant Russian Orthodoxy. Wasn't that started in ca. 1088? In K'viv?
This discussion has been closed.