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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rupert Murdoch hints that tonight’s YouGov is has NO and YE

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rupert Murdoch hints that tonight’s YouGov is has NO and YES even closer

London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Bloody Murdoch ! Is he still ticking ?
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    "London Times"? You'd think he'd know the name of the newspaper he owns.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited September 2014
    I think The Sunday Times is going to back Scottish Independence tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    I think the poll might show Yes ahead!
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    edited September 2014
    Oooh! Tingles all over.

    YuoGov?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2014
    Has anyone in the indy debate raised the question of interest rates ? Regardless of currency union or not, interest rates in the two countries will diverge if Scotland votes YES. In the beginning, I would assume Scottish rates will be higher.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    I suspect this poll will be on the front page on the Sunday Times, normally that is available between 9pm and 10.30pm
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    Repost from disappearing thread:

    Have checked out Radio Times TV listing's and it seems Indy Ref will be counting through the night on Thursday 18th, as the BBC is running a programme from 10:35 to 6:00am.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    All in on YES
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 835
    Sweden game

    For anyone who would like to play, this is now available, entries close 7pm next Saturday:

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/sweden14/

    The Scotland game will be out next - if anyone could email me at electiongame[at]yahoo[dot]co[dot]uk and confirm for me that counting will be done by local authority area (I think it is!) that would be much appreciated.

    Many thanks,

    DC
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Not a huge surprise. I called this weeks ago.

    Sad, but inevitable in the end. And the Scots will not enjoy the first few years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    I must protest at the destruction of the previous article and the absence of a picture of Sarah Jane-Mee from this one.

    Mr. T, separation would be momentous. But it's not the equivalent of the Fourth Crusade.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    Dirty teasing Digger.

    Everything up for grabs = tie?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    Betfair still static, pile in!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Did someone just kill the "A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party"" thread?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited September 2014
    Angela Rayner wins Labour selection in Ashton under Lyne (majority 23.7%). She won by a comfortable margin (72 votes with runner up at 29).

    www.angelarayner.com


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    F1: got some bets in mind. Well, maybe. Can't quite work out how the start might go.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Poor corporeal, whenever one of his threads goes up and something major happens and his thread gets rescheduled.

    Is about 10th time it is happened to the poor chap
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    If the ST supports indy, then any patriotic UK citizen must stop buying that rag !
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    BETTING POST

    Whether or not Yes wins, if it actually is going to be to the wire then I think Shadsy's over/under line at 46.5% for Yes is value. I've been cautious of betting on the IndyRef since I don't have any special insight/knowledge of Scottish politics, so DYOR even more than normal if you want to follow up this tip.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Dirty teasing Digger.

    Everything up for grabs = tie?

    My reading is that, his paper is going to endorse Yes, which is going to be bigger news than a Yes lead.

    If the Sunday Times does, it increases the likelihood of the Scottish Sun backing Yes, which may be crucial
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Farage had quite a tete a tete with Murdoch only a few days ago in New York. I would love to know what they talked about.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    MarkHopkins said:

    Did someone just kill the "A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party"" thread?

    Yes, has been rescheduled, as we wouldn't have talked about the topic, but this topic.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    To reply to David Herdson from the previous thread about Matthew Parris, I agree with the point about where his mind is. It's just that the initial statement of his views wasn't framed in those terms. When he writes on issues should as change, it's worth looking at it through his eyes. UKIP is, at least in Clactonesque terms, a scream about change. When you've grown up in what was white ruled Southern Africa as he did (and, incidentally my parents did) you know, unless you're a diehard, that resisting change will not stop it. It could though make the consequences of inevitable change worse.

    FAOD and because this is the internet, I'm not equating UKIP to Ian Smith but when you've grown up facing the anger because of what you are or what you want to do (white, gay, Conservative MP in the early 1980s) then you will look at what you think is intolerance in a way which other may find alien or otherwise.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    It's Miliband not Milliband. The revolting geriatric must be thinking of Milly Dowler.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Quincel said:

    BETTING POST

    Whether or not Yes wins, if it actually is going to be to the wire then I think Shadsy's over/under line at 46.5% for Yes is value. I've been cautious of betting on the IndyRef since I don't have any special insight/knowledge of Scottish politics, so DYOR even more than normal if you want to follow up this tip.

    It is.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Hasn't the Scottish Sun come out for the SNP in the past?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    Repost from disappearing thread:

    Have checked out Radio Times TV listing's and it seems Indy Ref will be counting through the night on Thursday 18th, as the BBC is running a programme from 10:35 to 6:00am.

    Will they give votes by regions or a big bang at the end ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Dirty teasing Digger.

    Everything up for grabs = tie?

    My reading is that, his paper is going to endorse Yes, which is going to be bigger news than a Yes lead.

    If the Sunday Times does, it increases the likelihood of the Scottish Sun backing Yes, which may be crucial
    No way the Sunday Times in London will endorse YES. Absolutely no way.

    You want a bet on that?
    Yeah, £25 at evens?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    This is from the a Sky News journalist,

    Mark White ‏@skymarkwhite 33s

    Is Scotland about to vote Yes? Expecting word on a Sunday Times poll later tonight which am told will make Unionists very nervous #indyref
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    BETTING POST

    PILE IN ON YES, THAT PRICE ISN'T GOING TO LAST
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Dirty teasing Digger.

    Everything up for grabs = tie?

    My reading is that, his paper is going to endorse Yes, which is going to be bigger news than a Yes lead.

    If the Sunday Times does, it increases the likelihood of the Scottish Sun backing Yes, which may be crucial
    More likely he'll be endorsing UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited September 2014
    From the Managing Editor of the Sun

    Stig Abell ‏@StigAbell 49s

    Even the most sanguine representatives of the no vote now accept the possibility of independence. Looks like 12 days of the Union left.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Dirty teasing Digger.

    Everything up for grabs = tie?

    My reading is that, his paper is going to endorse Yes, which is going to be bigger news than a Yes lead.

    If the Sunday Times does, it increases the likelihood of the Scottish Sun backing Yes, which may be crucial
    Be bit of a turnaround for the Times, they've been pretty indy sceptic thus far. I think the Scottish Sun has been edging that way for a while, the word is that it was the London operation holding them back.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Will be desperate for NO if YOUGOV have YES ahead this early.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BETTING POST

    PILE IN ON YES, THAT PRICE ISN'T GOING TO LAST

    Told you all.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    This is concerning.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I wonder why Murdoch described the poll as "reliable" (trans, "not Panelbase"? - completely unfair I know, and no reason to believe the answers to the questions their clients ask them to put are any more or less reliable than any other member of the BPC...)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Betting Post

    F1: pre-race piece up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/italy-pre-race.html

    Hard to think of anything to back so (splitting one stake into two equal halves so it counts as one tip) I've backed Maldonado and Grosjean to not be classified at 2.2. The Lotus is an awful car.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Itajai said:

    Hasn't the Scottish Sun come out for the SNP in the past?

    Once the tide turned YES. Looks like it may happen again soon.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    When YES rises, buy NO to make even more money ! DYOR.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Dirty teasing Digger.

    Everything up for grabs = tie?

    My reading is that, his paper is going to endorse Yes, which is going to be bigger news than a Yes lead.

    If the Sunday Times does, it increases the likelihood of the Scottish Sun backing Yes, which may be crucial
    No way the Sunday Times in London will endorse YES. Absolutely no way.

    You want a bet on that?
    Yeah, £25 at evens?
    Deal.

    Why on earth would an ultra-establishment British newspaper suddenly endorse the Partition of Britain? Madness. Won't happen.

    Sunday Times in Scotland might (do they have different editorials?), however note that I said "Sunday Times in London".
    Rupert Murdoch hates the UK, wants to see it end.

    Yes, I'm talking about the Editorial Columns from the Sunday Times in London, that will be published this weekend or next weekend here

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/leaders/
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Hang on. So when No are ahead by 10 points it's too close to call, and when Yes may be ahead it's a done deal?
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    My guess is that no still ahead, but only just.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Dirty teasing Digger.

    Everything up for grabs = tie?

    My reading is that, his paper is going to endorse Yes, which is going to be bigger news than a Yes lead.

    If the Sunday Times does, it increases the likelihood of the Scottish Sun backing Yes, which may be crucial
    Be bit of a turnaround for the Times, they've been pretty indy sceptic thus far. I think the Scottish Sun has been edging that way for a while, the word is that it was the London operation holding them back.
    I wonder if it'll be a "better for both parties to go their separate ways kinda thing"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    YES ahead this early.

    In the final 13 days of a three year campaign?

    Cutting it a bit fine......
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    MikeK said:

    Farage had quite a tete a tete with Murdoch only a few days ago in New York. I would love to know what they talked about.

    Me too. I'd love to hear how they talk to one another. Would be fascinating. But important to remember that the two have met before, and that didn't stop the Times and the Sun monstering Farage during the Euros.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    SeanT said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Not a huge surprise. I called this weeks ago.

    Sad, but inevitable in the end. And the Scots will not enjoy the first few years.

    Nor will we.

    It will be less horrific for us because we will not have inflicted it on ourselves. The Scots have bought the snake oil though. It's going to be grim up north for a while. As Salmond said, he is prepared to sacrifice his political career and the SNP for independence. He will have to, but he won't care. He'll have got his frontier.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Hang on. So when No are ahead by 10 points it's too close to call, and when Yes may be ahead it's a done deal?

    It's all about momentum
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Questions :

    1. If Scotland votes YES, what happens to the pound ?

    2. If Scotland votes YES, what happens to interest rates ? I mean UK interest rates. Will there be a grey market for "Scottish" rates immediately ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Ok, Rupert's just tweeted this

    Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 59s

    Scottish poll reflects world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments leaving openings for libertarians and far left
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    SeanT said:

    Miliband is, inter alia, completely f*cked.

    Labour will go into civil war, even more than the Tories. This is epochal. it happened under his watch and, like Cameron, he will get the blame - snooty north London intellectual who didn't see the risk until it was too late.

    UKIP to win in 2015?

    Ed Miliband has actually been in Scotland this week, looking like a fish out of water...

    What would happen if UKIP did win 2015 in terms of national share, but only got a handful of seats?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited September 2014
    CarlottaVance said:

    malcolmg said:

    YES ahead this early.

    In the final 13 days of a three year campaign?

    Cutting it a bit fine......
    That was always the plan, but fine no less
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    Miliband is, inter alia, completely f*cked.

    Labour will go into civil war, even more than the Tories. This is epochal. it happened under his watch and, like Cameron, he will get the blame - snooty north London intellectual who didn't see the risk until it was too late.

    UKIP to win in 2015?

    Funnily enough I had a dream (a true dream) that if yes won, UKIP would win 188 seats.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

    Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    valleyboy said:

    My guess is that no still ahead, but only just.

    But wouldn't that essentially be the same as last week's poll? Hard to see why Murdoch would play it up as much as he is.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CON MAJ NAILED ON !
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    edited September 2014
    I was approached this afternoon at Haymarket, Edinburgh by a woman carrying "Vote No for a Socialist Britain" leaflets, so if it is a Yes, then maybe you can think of the glass being half-full.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    SouthamObserver said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

    Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

    I thought you loved Ed, Southam. What happened?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Danny565 said:

    valleyboy said:

    My guess is that no still ahead, but only just.

    But wouldn't that essentially be the same as last week's poll? Hard to see why Murdoch would play it up as much as he is.
    You don't think the old rascal might be trying to sell newspapers do you?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    What a depressing way to wake up.. hm
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    I suspect this piece by Peter Kellner from two months ago may win this year's Sion Simon political Nostradamus award

    Scotland will vote to remain in the United Kingdom, and by a decisive enough margin to settle the matter for many years to come.

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/01/why-do-polls-scotland-vary-so-much/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    MikeK said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

    Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

    I thought you loved Ed, Southam. What happened?
    I don't think SO's ever been more than "lukewarm" about Ed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    MikeK said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

    Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

    I thought you loved Ed, Southam. What happened?

    Nope, never rated him. I may even have coined the "Ed is crap" phrase on here.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    I think JackW might need to analyze some of the outpourings from his ARSE before this is all over!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It's POINTLESS! I will watch. Oh no; Celebrates! I won't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 5m

    MT @edgingtont: Matthew Parris will discuss his Times article on Clacton with @GoodwinMJ on @bbcpm 5.15pm @BBCRadio4>*popcorn*
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Any change on betfair ?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Murdoch's clear support for Yes will violently alienate the key Scottish Labour vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    What a depressing way to wake up.. hm

    Panicking Unionists. Not a pretty sight, is it?

    Who knows what a Yes tie or lead would do?

    Swing more to Yes, or get more of the No vote out?

    We won't find out until the 19th, what ever people speculate on here.....
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Murdoch's clear support for Yes will violently alienate the key Scottish Labour vote.

    MicawberDiCanio!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    GIN1138 said:

    I think JackW might need to analyze some of the outpourings from his ARSE before this is all over!

    He has done well up in Edinburgh as I prophesised. Will be back with his ARSE in tatters.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    edited September 2014
    surbiton said:

    Any change on betfair ?

    Fwiw, Yes dropped from 4.6 to 4.2 in the last 15 minutes.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Before SeanT loses it, let me remind him that Yougov changed its methodology for the indy ref.
    So this cannot be compared to results from last month.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    CarlottaVance said:

    RobD said:

    What a depressing way to wake up.. hm

    Panicking Unionists. Not a pretty sight, is it?

    Who knows what a Yes tie or lead would do?

    Swing more to Yes, or get more of the No vote out?

    We won't find out until the 19th, what ever people speculate on here.....
    Probably both, driving up turnout and making for a nail-biting finish!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Cameron's master plan to ensure future Conservative election victories moves into its final phase.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?
    Wait until you see the interest rate hikes, the tumbling of the pound, the spectre of recession, the years of chaos and argument. It's going to be messy, boring, expensive and relentless for the rest of the decade.

    My biggest pity is reserved for passionate Scottish unionists - and there are lots of them. Half their identity will be ripped away.

    And this was all avoidable.

    Oh, and, PILE IN ON THE CAMERON RESIGNATION MARKET
    What a big girl's blouse. Even if everything you said re falling pound rising interest rates etc. came true then its nothing that I haven't already lived through. As to the years of arguments what has that got to do with me.

    In 1944 when the V1 'planes were starting to come over I bet you would have been arguing for the allies to surrender.to Germany.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    surbiton said:

    Before SeanT loses it, let me remind him that Yougov changed its methodology for the indy ref.
    So this cannot be compared to results from last month.

    But it can be compared to the one a week or so ago?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ok, Rupert's just tweeted this

    Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 59s

    Scottish poll reflects world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments leaving openings for libertarians and far left

    Rupert's upset because his papers got found out - and someone threw a pie in his face!

    Basically he's a very chippy Aussie.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    RobD said:

    What a depressing way to wake up.. hm

    Panicking Unionists. Not a pretty sight, is it?

    Who knows what a Yes tie or lead would do?

    Swing more to Yes, or get more of the No vote out?

    We won't find out until the 19th, what ever people speculate on here.....
    Probably both, driving up turnout and making for a nail-biting finish!
    And selling more newspapers - SHOCKER!
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Hopefully it will be yes on 51%, but sadly it will be no on 60 - 40 +/- 3
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Monksfield said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Murdoch's clear support for Yes will violently alienate the key Scottish Labour vote.

    MicawberDiCanio!
    You'll see.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Theuniondivvie said:

    surbiton said:

    Any change on betfair ?

    Fwiw, Yes dropped from 4.6 to 4.2 in the last 15 minutes.
    Yup

    http://uk.sportsiteexweb.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoChartAction.do?marketId=110033387&selectionId=5334892
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    surbiton said:

    Before SeanT loses it, let me remind him that Yougov changed its methodology for the indy ref.
    So this cannot be compared to results from last month.

    LOL
  • JamesMoJamesMo Posts: 35
    CarlottaVance said:

    I wonder why Murdoch described the poll as "reliable" (trans, "not Panelbase"? - completely unfair I know, and no reason to believe the answers to the questions their clients ask them to put are any more or less reliable than any other member of the BPC...)

    The Scottish edition of Sunday Times has used Panelbase previously this year. There is a rumour that the London edition of the Sunday Times has commissioned a YouGov poll which has been in the field this week. Presumably this is what Murdoch is referring to.

    ....

    As for Murdoch, I suspect this may be part of a two-pronged approach. Endorse Salmond in Scotland and Farage in England. Play off against each other. Good copy and grateful politicians.

    ....

    Speaking as someone sympathetic to Scottish independence, my gut feeling is that the Scots will bottle it on the day.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MarkHopkins said:


    Cameron's master plan to ensure future Conservative election victories moves into its final phase.

    Don't under estimate Sean's point about Cameron resignation. Let me explain.

    If YES had been in the lead for 6 months, then nothing would have happened. However, half of the English voters, who actually know about the ref and the other half who are blissfully ignorant won't like it if a large part of the weather map is gone !
  • John1555John1555 Posts: 4
    Mr murdoch after all he said cannot but play politics with the UK's wider interests. First he wants the Union split; then he wants England and Wales and NI out of EU. Then he wants us all to be in the back pocket of the international financiers who keep his News Corporation in business. Watch Fox News if you really want to know how small Murdoch wants our politics to be - small the way no one can stand up to the uber-barons who run international business. However, like the old rail tycoons who once owned the world before anti trust laws - eventually the real world will come to distrust these overmighty subjects and will bite back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    I know the SNP and Yes are aiming for something the rest of the establishment of the UK are not in favour of, but I do struggle to see them as not someone being part of the political establishment. A party of national government could hardly claim to be so, so why others would do it for them I don't know. They just hope for a different establishment is all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited September 2014
    surbiton said:

    Before SeanT loses it, let me remind him that Yougov changed its methodology for the indy ref.
    So this cannot be compared to results from last month.

    Yes it can.

    The first poll with the methodolgy change was published the 11th of August, had No, 20% ahead

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/08/11/latest-scottish-referendum-poll/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?
    Wait until you see the interest rate hikes, the tumbling of the pound, the spectre of recession, the years of chaos and argument. It's going to be messy, boring, expensive and relentless for the rest of the decade.

    My biggest pity is reserved for passionate Scottish unionists - and there are lots of them. Half their identity will be ripped away.

    And this was all avoidable.

    Oh, and, PILE IN ON THE CAMERON RESIGNATION MARKET
    What a big girl's blouse. Even if everything you said re falling pound rising interest rates etc. came true then its nothing that I haven't already lived through. As to the years of arguments what has that got to do with me.

    In 1944 when the V1 'planes were starting to come over I bet you would have been arguing for the allies to surrender.to Germany.
    Where is this stuff about World War 2 coming from? I don't see the relevance?

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?
    Wait until you see the interest rate hikes, the tumbling of the pound, the spectre of recession, the years of chaos and argument. It's going to be messy, boring, expensive and relentless for the rest of the decade.

    My biggest pity is reserved for passionate Scottish unionists - and there are lots of them. Half their identity will be ripped away.

    And this was all avoidable.

    Oh, and, PILE IN ON THE CAMERON RESIGNATION MARKET
    I'm a saver. Did someone say 'interest rate hikes'. God bless you, plucky independentistas. Long may your saltires unfurl.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?
    Wait until you see the interest rate hikes, the tumbling of the pound, the spectre of recession, the years of chaos and argument. It's going to be messy, boring, expensive and relentless for the rest of the decade.

    My biggest pity is reserved for passionate Scottish unionists - and there are lots of them. Half their identity will be ripped away.

    And this was all avoidable.

    Oh, and, PILE IN ON THE CAMERON RESIGNATION MARKET
    What a big girl's blouse. Even if everything you said re falling pound rising interest rates etc. came true then its nothing that I haven't already lived through. As to the years of arguments what has that got to do with me.

    In 1944 when the V1 'planes were starting to come over I bet you would have been arguing for the allies to surrender.to Germany.
    Where is this stuff about World War 2 coming from? I don't see the relevance?

    Blind Panic, they are all going back to empire , days of hope and glory , blitz , etc
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Greetings from Sunny(ish) Canada! It does seem strange that yesterday may have been my last day in the UK as we know it. If Yes does win, and I am expecting a narrow Yes victory, I'm wondering if the Quebec independence movement will gain some impetus? I'll keep my ear to the ground when I'm there next week.

    The Yes campaign is like a sprinter's team in the Tour de France. You only need to be in the lead for 5 metres out of a 200 km stage - as long as it is the final 5 metres then you are the winner. Does Eck = Cav???
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Out canvassing again this afternoon. One of several teams out in Dundee for BT today. Quite reasonable. Private housing and No just edged it.

    One thing the staff noticed is that there was a significant pick up in volunteers after the last close poll. No doubt there will be another pick up if tomorrow is close.

    No one in Scotland believes for a minute now that this could not happen and all of the early smugness and overconfidence (which I think I can legitimately claim never to have shared) has gone. BT knows they are in a fight to the finish and they will.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    SandyRentool said:

    Greetings from Sunny(ish) Canada! It does seem strange that yesterday may have been my last day in the UK as we know it. If Yes does win, and I am expecting a narrow Yes victory, I'm wondering if the Quebec independence movement will gain some impetus? I'll keep my ear to the ground when I'm there next week.

    The Yes campaign is like a sprinter's team in the Tour de France. You only need to be in the lead for 5 metres out of a 200 km stage - as long as it is the final 5 metres then you are the winner. Does Eck = Cav???

    Even if the Scots vote Yes, the UK will last until 2016.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?
    Wait until you see the interest rate hikes, the tumbling of the pound, the spectre of recession, the years of chaos and argument. It's going to be messy, boring, expensive and relentless for the rest of the decade.

    My biggest pity is reserved for passionate Scottish unionists - and there are lots of them. Half their identity will be ripped away.

    And this was all avoidable.

    Oh, and, PILE IN ON THE CAMERON RESIGNATION MARKET
    I'm a saver. Did someone say 'interest rate hikes'. God bless you, plucky independentistas. Long may your saltires unfurl.
    Are you a property owner? There's a good chance this will hammer house prices too.
    I hear that all the fish are going to emigrate and large dragons will swoop down and roast sheep where they stand on the hills.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?
    Wait until you see the interest rate hikes, the tumbling of the pound, the spectre of recession, the years of chaos and argument. It's going to be messy, boring, expensive and relentless for the rest of the decade.

    My biggest pity is reserved for passionate Scottish unionists - and there are lots of them. Half their identity will be ripped away.

    And this was all avoidable.

    Oh, and, PILE IN ON THE CAMERON RESIGNATION MARKET
    I'm a saver. Did someone say 'interest rate hikes'. God bless you, plucky independentistas. Long may your saltires unfurl.
    Are you a property owner? There's a good chance this will hammer house prices too.
    Oh, well at least some good will come of it
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    SouthamObserver said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

    lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

    It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.
    I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

    Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

    Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

    My country isn't about to end, Mr.Observer, and history cannot be over because by definition it is already passed.

    Were there Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) before the Act of Union? Will there be Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) if the Scots vote to dissolve that union? Of course there will be and 99.9% of the population will not notice the difference.
This discussion has been closed.