SeanT This is not about Labour, Miliband still leads in the Midlands, the north, and Wales and London, if it is a Yes Cameron will be humiliated and more Tories would switch to UKIP and Miliband could be even more likely to be PM. He may then make Hollande look successful, but that does not mean he cannot win
Poor Sunday Times having its embargo broken by its owner.
If indeed the poll is either level or up for YES it'll show the predictive value of polls-particularly Yougov- isn't worth a candle. A month ago they were writing an article on why Survation had its weighting wrong. Now who would know?
The moral of the story is if you want to know what's really happening count the window stickers on Sauchiehall Street
SO No, because Rajoy knows it will be Catalonia and the Basque country next, Renzi knows Venice will follow, and Hollande knows Corsica will get ideas, the Belgians will be worried about Flanders, they will be worried and furious, not laughing!
The Catalans will not get the legally binding referendum the Scots got. And when Rajoy loses next year they'll get Devomax and it will all be sorted. They'll also be spooked by what happens to iScotland. I doubt Venice and Corsica are serious separation candidates.
MalcolmG Scotland had a Tory majority in the 1950s and even in 2010 the Tories won over 400,000 votes, Scotland has always loathed Murdoch!
Scots backed the Unionist Party in the 1950s. Important distinction. In 1950s unionism was mostly seen as the Scottish patriotic option. It was opposed to the red meat socialism offered by the Labour Party of the time, which organised things on a pan-GB basis (British Airways, British Gas, British Steel, etc.). "Tory" support started to melt away in Scotland after the Unionist Party was submerged into the Conservative Party in the mid 1960s.
The everything up for grabs comment would probably point toward a slight narrowing rather than a totally level or crossed over poll, though with some of the other things he posted maybe it's not that wise to analyse his every word.
MalcolmG Scotland had a Tory majority in the 1950s and even in 2010 the Tories won over 400,000 votes, Scotland has always loathed Murdoch!
Scots backed the Unionist Party in the 1950s. Important distinction. In 1950s unionism was mostly seen as the Scottish patriotic option. It was opposed to the red meat socialism offered by the Labour Party of the time, which organised things on a pan-GB basis (British Airways, British Gas, British Steel, etc.). "Tory" support started to melt away in Scotland after the Unionist Party was submerged into the Conservative Party in the mid 1960s.
Could the decision over whether or not Scotland leaves the UK to become an independent country ultimately rest with the English? The proposition is not as ridiculous as it sounds.
With less than a fortnight to go until the referendum, the result is increasingly difficult to predict, as a recent opinion poll showing there are now just six points between the two sides has demonstrated. There are an estimated 370,000 English-born people living in Scotland – and unlike the 830,000 ex-pat Scots now living south of the border, they get a vote.
Any info on what time? When are the TV channels doing their bit?
Sky News and The BBC are planning to do shows the moment the polls close until the result is out.
Workshy pampered BBC staff are planning to strike that day, so it may cause problems for the BBC.
I think the results will be announced by the 32 electoral regions, so we might see some results in the early hours of Friday, some may be delayed, because of the remoteness and bad weather.
We'll probably get the final result by Friday lunchtime (assuming the weather is good)
By the way, if Scots do go, can we give them a kicking afterwards? No currency union, nothing. Hardball. If they don't want us, we don't want them.
F*ck 'em. Not that I'm bitter, I just want to see them eating gravel, and bits of grass, in Edinburgh New Town.
I feel I will not be alone in my sentiments.
At the same time we must turn on our own "leaders" - Clegg, Cameron and Miliband - the whole damn shower - who allowed this catastrophe to happen. Hang them from metaphorical lampposts. Clear out all of Westminster. Start again.
There were 12 disciples one of whom was Judas, even Jesus couldn't keep the 8%.
Out canvassing again this afternoon. One of several teams out in Dundee for BT today. Quite reasonable. Private housing and No just edged it.
One thing the staff noticed is that there was a significant pick up in volunteers after the last close poll. No doubt there will be another pick up if tomorrow is close.
No one in Scotland believes for a minute now that this could not happen and all of the early smugness and overconfidence (which I think I can legitimately claim never to have shared) has gone. BT knows they are in a fight to the finish and they will.
I feel deeply sad for you and so many others. You could not have done more. I hope it's not as bad as I fear. We will feel diminished in England, a bit angry, there may even be some financial kickback; but it's nothing on what's going to happen in Scotland. And you lose your birthright. Just horrible.
We have not lost yet. In fact I think we will still win. The fact it is so close is a terrible source of tension and anxiety. I can't recall anything like it, possibly when my mother was dying.
I intend to be out again tomorrow. The no campaign is bigger very day but there is no disputing that we started late and a long way behind.
I have been saying for over a year this will be very close. A BT campaign led by Scottish Labour who have so little pride and belief in the UK was always going to struggle to capture the imagination. A Labour Party led by Ed Miliband even more so.
Sean "F*ck 'em. Not that I'm bitter, I just want to see them eating gravel, and bits of grass, in Edinburgh New Town." I feel I will not be alone in my sentiments."
I'm sure you wont. Most Of Edinburgh New Town will be with you for a start
Could the decision over whether or not Scotland leaves the UK to become an independent country ultimately rest with the English? The proposition is not as ridiculous as it sounds.
With less than a fortnight to go until the referendum, the result is increasingly difficult to predict, as a recent opinion poll showing there are now just six points between the two sides has demonstrated. There are an estimated 370,000 English-born people living in Scotland – and unlike the 830,000 ex-pat Scots now living south of the border, they get a vote.
SO There could be riots if the Basques and Catalans do not get a referendum as Scotland has if Scotland votes Yes. Venice recently held a referendum which was a clear Yes for independence, although unrecognised by the government. Mark my words, a Scottish Yes will set nationalist flames ablaze across Europe, Quebec nationalism will rise again, the lot!
SO There could be riots if the Basques and Catalans do not get a referendum as Scotland has if Scotland votes Yes. Venice recently held a referendum which was a clear Yes for independence, although unrecognised by the government. Mark my words, a Scottish Yes will set nationalist flames ablaze across Europe, Quebec nationalism will rise again, the lot!
Can't blame people for being sick of the globalist new world order shit that gets rammed down their throats.
Out canvassing again this afternoon. One of several teams out in Dundee for BT today. Quite reasonable. Private housing and No just edged it.
One thing the staff noticed is that there was a significant pick up in volunteers after the last close poll. No doubt there will be another pick up if tomorrow is close.
No one in Scotland believes for a minute now that this could not happen and all of the early smugness and overconfidence (which I think I can legitimately claim never to have shared) has gone. BT knows they are in a fight to the finish and they will.
I feel deeply sad for you and so many others. You could not have done more. I hope it's not as bad as I fear. We will feel diminished in England, a bit angry, there may even be some financial kickback; but it's nothing on what's going to happen in Scotland. And you lose your birthright. Just horrible.
We have not lost yet. In fact I think we will still win. The fact it is so close is a terrible source of tension and anxiety. I can't recall anything like it, possibly when my mother was dying.
I intend to be out again tomorrow. The no campaign is bigger very day but there is no disputing that we started late and a long way behind.
I have been saying for over a year this will be very close. A BT campaign led by Scottish Labour who have so little pride and belief in the UK was always going to struggle to capture the imagination. A Labour Party led by Ed Miliband even more so.
circling the drain though, negative uninspiring dreadful campaign by a bunch of losers.
Yes, but the indyref was always about one familiar and one unfamiliar option, with a lot of people making up their minds near the end. Not like Tories vs Labour.
This is as any fule kno a voodoo poll but from what I hear I get the impression it might have real traction once things settle down and become clearer. Crucially, also, it has never quite been pukka English territory, except perhaps for the last few years, which vitiates the Crimea analogy. There was an interesting legal analysis of the problem a few years back which tended to reinforce this.
IIRC it's football team and railway station are 'Scottish'.
Matthew Parris evidently thinks the Tories should target Cambridge and Poplar&Limehouse (which includes Canary Wharf). Two seats they'll never win. At the same time, he thinks they should give up on Clacton, a constituency they currently hold with a 12,000 majority.
When Cameron goes to his first EU meeting after the Yes, will the other leaders just point at him and laugh?
Doubt it, given the number of separatist movements within EU countries. That's why the EU is making it as difficult as possible for Salmond. It's certainly not for love on the UK.
Out canvassing again this afternoon. One of several teams out in Dundee for BT today. Quite reasonable. Private housing and No just edged it.
One thing the staff noticed is that there was a significant pick up in volunteers after the last close poll. No doubt there will be another pick up if tomorrow is close.
No one in Scotland believes for a minute now that this could not happen and all of the early smugness and overconfidence (which I think I can legitimately claim never to have shared) has gone. BT knows they are in a fight to the finish and they will.
I feel deeply sad for you and so many others. You could not have done more. I hope it's not as bad as I fear. We will feel diminished in England, a bit angry, there may even be some financial kickback; but it's nothing on what's going to happen in Scotland. And you lose your birthright. Just horrible.
We have not lost yet. In fact I think we will still win.
Quite. Not a lot of courage under fire from the English unionists tonight - almost sufficient to tempt one to borrow Malcolm's second favourite epithet "big Jessies"......
Yes, but the indyref was always about one familiar and one unfamiliar option, with a lot of people making up their minds near the end. Not like Tories vs Labour.
This is as any fule kno a voodoo poll but from what I hear I get the impression it might have real traction once things settle down and become clearer. Crucially, also, it has never quite been pukka English territory, except perhaps for the last few years, which vitiates the Crimea analogy. There was an interesting legal analysis of the problem a few years back which tended to reinforce this.
IIRC it's football team and railway station are 'Scottish'.
When it becomes clear, as it will, that iScotland is much poorer than she hoped to be, and is suffering capital flight, job losses, disinvestment, cuts in services, and everything else - along with anxieties about currency, the EU, NATO, etc - I do not think Berwick will be particularly keen to join you.
Congrats on your likely win and all that. But the aftermath is going to be messy. Bad for England, really bad for Scotland.
After ten years you may indeed grow and prosper once you have shrunk your welfare state, but that's in ten years.
Too early to say yet. I'm actually genuinely surprised that so many unionists on this board are getting pessimistic. The traditional expressions re chickens apply in each case.
[Edited:] sorry, nothing personal or Murphyesque intended! Counting them, and running around in circles, respectively. But I really am surprised.
I'm reluctant to reveal such a gamechanger for No, but I find I'm overcome with unfamiliar compassion for PB Unionists.
Shetland&OrkneyMove @ShetlandOrkney Absolutely fantastic news that The Shetland Times has come out against separation from the UK.Shetland says #NoThanks
........Jill Stephenson, an emeritus professor of history at Edinburgh University, believe the SNP leader and his colleagues often speak in anti-English ‘code’. ‘Any time you hear senior members of the SNP complain about “Westminster”, or “the Tories”, or “London”, what they are really talking about is the English. And supporters know it,’ says Stephenson.
To all those weak kneed jessie Kippers, who are doing their best to stop a referendum in 2017, because you're scared that will people vote to remain in the EU, take note of this referendum.
Have faith in the people
Quite simply cameron and the Tories are not trusted to keep their word. Quite simply they are DAMNED LIARS.
The problem for the Tories is if Clacton turns it's backs on them.
Hasn't it already? Were you there today?
Isam, yes. The place was full of UKIP canvassers. Where I was canvassing, (Great Holland), just over half were backing Carswell, mostly very enthusiastically.
AndyJS The Tories did have an MP in Cambridge in the eighties and have an MP now in West Oxford. They also have numerous seats in the City and the prosperous commuter belt suburbs, which I assume he was referring to. I would agree though he is wrong in that the Tories need both Clacton and prosperous middle class suburbs to win
Matthew Parris evidently thinks the Tories should target Cambridge and Poplar&Limehouse (which includes Canary Wharf). Two seats they'll never win. At the same time, he thinks they should give up on Clacton, a constituency they currently hold with a 12,000 majority.
I read Parris' article, and heard him on PM. His strategy sounded like electoral suicide.
I'm reluctant to reveal such a gamechanger for No, but I find I'm overcome with unfamiliar compassion for PB Unionists.
Shetland&OrkneyMove @ShetlandOrkney Absolutely fantastic news that The Shetland Times has come out against separation from the UK.Shetland says #NoThanks
What happens if the Shetlands demand to stay with England and the rUK?
Are they just ignored by Edinburgh?
They would a) have to start a movement demanding such a thing, and b) agitate to have a referendum to achieve it.
However I believe (someone will no doubt correct me) that if they were to become an enclave of the rUK, their coastal limit would be seriously reduced, 12 miles I think? Complete indy would be the way to go.
AndyJS The Tories did have an MP in Cambridge in the eighties and have an MP now in West Oxford. They also have numerous seats in the City and the prosperous commuter belt suburbs, which I assume he was referring to. I would agree though he is wrong in that the Tories need both Clacton and prosperous middle class suburbs to win
Clacton is nothing like as run-down as his article suggests. I thought that parts of it were rather smart, as indeed is Great Holland. St. Osyth and Jaywick are very deprived, but not the main town.
The problem for the Tories is if Clacton turns it's backs on them.
Hasn't it already? Were you there today?
Isam, yes. The place was full of UKIP canvassers. Where I was canvassing, (Great Holland), just over half were backing Carswell, mostly very enthusiastically.
I think (hope) success for Carswell will calm down some of the wilder kippers.. I notice he rebuked Michael Heaver on twitter the other day for slagging Finkelstein.. a yin to Nigel's (public) yang
AndyJS The Tories did have an MP in Cambridge in the eighties and have an MP now in West Oxford. They also have numerous seats in the City and the prosperous commuter belt suburbs, which I assume he was referring to. I would agree though he is wrong in that the Tories need both Clacton and prosperous middle class suburbs to win
Clacton is nothing like as run-down as his article suggests. I thought that parts of it were rather smart, as indeed is Great Holland. St. Osyth and Jaywick are very deprived, but not the main town.
Frinton is lovely. Very middle class area. I was there last year, a beautiful seaside town
Haven't been to Clacton in years, it was where we went on holiday when I was a kid and I loved it
Matthew Parris evidently thinks the Tories should target Cambridge and Poplar&Limehouse (which includes Canary Wharf). Two seats they'll never win. At the same time, he thinks they should give up on Clacton, a constituency they currently hold with a 12,000 majority.
The 'Cameron Project' did target the likes of Cambridge with the results we know.
The problem that the likes of Parris and indeed Cameron have is that they don't like the sort of people who might vote Conservative.
"........Jill Stephenson, an emeritus professor of history at Edinburgh University, believe the SNP leader and his colleagues often speak in anti-English ‘code’. ‘Any time you hear senior members of the SNP complain about “Westminster”, or “the Tories”, or “London”, what they are really talking about is the English. And supporters know it,’ says Stephenson."
Well I hope the professor takes a translator with her because I really don't understand what she's saying
If it is a "No" and it turns out not that it was the English, but the Scottish Labour voter that lost it - will this strengthen Sturgeon's chances against Eck?
"........Jill Stephenson, an emeritus professor of history at Edinburgh University, believe the SNP leader and his colleagues often speak in anti-English ‘code’. ‘Any time you hear senior members of the SNP complain about “Westminster”, or “the Tories”, or “London”, what they are really talking about is the English. And supporters know it,’ says Stephenson."
Well I hope the professor takes a translator with her because I really don't understand what she's saying
Kay Burley @KayBurley 2m Prepping for @SkyNews #indyref coverage from Scotland. If latest Times poll proves accurate I might need my passport to return home...
Kay Burley @KayBurley 2m Prepping for @SkyNews #indyref coverage from Scotland. If latest Times poll proves accurate I might need my passport to return home...
At least the next two weeks are going to be exciting. For those of us who observe the 1st rule of political betting - 'never bet against Alex Salmond' - it seems we shall be on the edge of our seats.
Kay Burley @KayBurley 2m Prepping for @SkyNews #indyref coverage from Scotland. If latest Times poll proves accurate I might need my passport to return home...
Sounds like we're in for a fun ride at Betfair.
although rubbish. Nobody will need a passport whatever happens.
Kay Burley @KayBurley 2m Prepping for @SkyNews #indyref coverage from Scotland. If latest Times poll proves accurate I might need my passport to return home...
If the Scots have any sense,they won't let her back....
Kay Burley @KayBurley 2m Prepping for @SkyNews #indyref coverage from Scotland. If latest Times poll proves accurate I might need my passport to return home...
Sounds like we're in for a fun ride at Betfair.
although rubbish. Nobody will need a passport whatever happens.
Erm, unless Scotland joins Schengen, as new EU entrants are required, and rUK stays out. Then there will have to be a frontier, and you will have to show your passports at Berwick.
Selection for some football matches is going to be VERY complicated.
Comments
If indeed the poll is either level or up for YES it'll show the predictive value of polls-particularly Yougov- isn't worth a candle. A month ago they were writing an article on why Survation had its weighting wrong. Now who would know?
The moral of the story is if you want to know what's really happening count the window stickers on Sauchiehall Street
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2745705/SIMON-HEFFER-The-silver-lining-English-Scots-alone.html
With less than a fortnight to go until the referendum, the result is increasingly difficult to predict, as a recent opinion poll showing there are now just six points between the two sides has demonstrated. There are an estimated 370,000 English-born people living in Scotland – and unlike the 830,000 ex-pat Scots now living south of the border, they get a vote.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-could-the-referendum-be-settled-by-the-english-9714987.html
Workshy pampered BBC staff are planning to strike that day, so it may cause problems for the BBC.
I think the results will be announced by the 32 electoral regions, so we might see some results in the early hours of Friday, some may be delayed, because of the remoteness and bad weather.
We'll probably get the final result by Friday lunchtime (assuming the weather is good)
So the people saying he will aren't backing it it seems
I intend to be out again tomorrow. The no campaign is bigger very day but there is no disputing that we started late and a long way behind.
I have been saying for over a year this will be very close. A BT campaign led by Scottish Labour who have so little pride and belief in the UK was always going to struggle to capture the imagination. A Labour Party led by Ed Miliband even more so.
"F*ck 'em. Not that I'm bitter, I just want to see them eating gravel, and bits of grass, in Edinburgh New Town."
I feel I will not be alone in my sentiments."
I'm sure you wont. Most Of Edinburgh New Town will be with you for a start
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2745565/Savage-racism-turning-Scotland-no-zone-English.html
As you say though they have a rocky road ahead and the rest of us will want a deal that
suits us, not them.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-515350/Berwick-Tweed-votes-leave-England-join-Scotland-better-public-services.html
This is as any fule kno a voodoo poll but from what I hear I get the impression it might have real traction once things settle down and become clearer. Crucially, also, it has never quite been pukka English territory, except perhaps for the last few years, which vitiates the Crimea analogy. There was an interesting legal analysis of the problem a few years back which tended to reinforce this.
IIRC it's football team and railway station are 'Scottish'.
But I hadn't
Next UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, 4/1...leadership election coming up... he is 1/1000
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-permanent-ukip-leader
When you click on him he becomes Paul Nuttall... eerie!!
Tim Aker at 12s not a bad bet IMO
[Edited:] sorry, nothing personal or Murphyesque intended! Counting them, and running around in circles, respectively. But I really am surprised.
Shetland&OrkneyMove @ShetlandOrkney
Absolutely fantastic news that The Shetland Times has come out against separation from the UK.Shetland says #NoThanks
http://tinyurl.com/p5dvqv7
What shall I headline it as
1) Sleazy Broken Unionists on the slide?
2) It's Great News for Yes (this time it really is)
3) Haha 41 Labour MPs/58 non tory MPs are going to get wiped out, well played Dave
........Jill Stephenson, an emeritus professor of history at Edinburgh University, believe the SNP leader and his colleagues often speak in anti-English ‘code’.
‘Any time you hear senior members of the SNP complain about “Westminster”, or “the Tories”, or “London”, what they are really talking about is the English. And supporters know it,’ says Stephenson.
Quite simply they are DAMNED LIARS.
However I believe (someone will no doubt correct me) that if they were to become an enclave of the rUK, their coastal limit would be seriously reduced, 12 miles I think? Complete indy would be the way to go.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2745565/Savage-racism-turning-Scotland-no-zone-English.html"
A real crap article from start to finish.
Haven't been to Clacton in years, it was where we went on holiday when I was a kid and I loved it
I think his punctuation may be a bit off.....
The problem that the likes of Parris and indeed Cameron have is that they don't like the sort of people who might vote Conservative.
"........Jill Stephenson, an emeritus professor of history at Edinburgh University, believe the SNP leader and his colleagues often speak in anti-English ‘code’.
‘Any time you hear senior members of the SNP complain about “Westminster”, or “the Tories”, or “London”, what they are really talking about is the English. And supporters know it,’ says Stephenson."
Well I hope the professor takes a translator with her because I really don't understand what she's saying
It's very simple:
Salmond says 'Westminster/London/Tory"
Nationalist hears: "England/English"
"Haven't been to Clacton in years, it was where we went on holiday when I was a kid and I loved it"
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-erHfCKk0i0E/UrI0t9e3zkI/AAAAAAAAXho/HeSWcBAJ5uA/s400/e7654af4-0f53-4fed-8494-89602a67721f_mods-rockers-clash1-28032013.jpg
EDIT
Its Brighton. What an oddball @Roger is
"Perhaps because it (the Bedroom Tax) is (a) only advisory and (b) no longer an immediate issue in Scotland, after the SNP paid it?"
But everyone knows socialists (even SNP ones) are internationalists
Prepping for @SkyNews #indyref coverage from Scotland. If latest Times poll proves accurate I might need my passport to return home...
Committed Yes voters well over 50%.
Some folks are in for a hell of a shock on the 19th.
"Mods vs Rogers"
Very good!
We should get the ICM Guardian poll on Monday.
Yes 3.8
No 1.35