Starmer still has a 30%+ net approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

Gary_Burton said:

The latest
@OpiniumResearch

@ObserverUK
poll shows a 4 point Labour lead.

Con 34%
Lab 38% (+1)
Lib Dem 11%
Green 6%

Behind all this international crisis The People have decided on Boris Johnson, most likely his Parliamentary Party have too. Soon as the news narrative changes there will be a reckoning - for now our thoughts and prayers are in Ukraine.

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

ydoethur said:

FPT

Mexicanpete said:

Scott_xP said:

⚡️Russian losses in last 24 hrs of its war against Ukraine:

SU-30 fighter aircraft, 11 helicopters, 2 Su-25 aircraft, 2 Il-76 air-fighters, a column of equipment and fuel echelon, according to Air Force Command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497659908866678786

If Zelensky can pull this off ( and I am more sanguine than many on here) there should be a massive uptick in Johnson's support. The great Churchillian Statesman by default.

Another ten, even twenty years of Johnson who I detest, is a price I would be more than happy to pay for this evil to stop.

Now look, I want Ukraine to win and Putin to die after being caught cowering in a sewer and sodomised by 50 people wielding a 15 inch dildo Leon has knapped specially for the task.

But I'm not willing to go *that* far.

It's worse for me, twenty years would be a full term life sentence. You would still have a couple of terms each of PMs JRM and Darren Grimes to enjoy.

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Mexicanpete said:

Scott_xP said:

⚡️Russian losses in last 24 hrs of its war against Ukraine:

SU-30 fighter aircraft, 11 helicopters, 2 Su-25 aircraft, 2 Il-76 air-fighters, a column of equipment and fuel echelon, according to Air Force Command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497659908866678786

If Zelensky can pull this off ( and I am more sanguine than many on here) there should be a massive uptick in Johnson's support. The great Churchillian Statesman by default.

Another ten, even twenty years of Johnson who I detest, is a price I would be more than happy to pay for this evil to stop.

Now look, I want Ukraine to win and Putin to die after being caught cowering in a sewer and sodomised by 50 people wielding a 15 inch dildo Leon has knapped specially for the task.

But I'm not willing to go *that* far.

It's worse for me, twenty years would be a full term life sentence. You would still have a couple of terms each of PMs JRM and Darren Grimes to enjoy.

I think I'd rather go the way of the director of Gazprom...

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

We expected their morale to be low but maybe it's ever lower than expected. That might explain a lot.

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

Putins argument is that they are all Nazis

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

The home office is, as usual, being its nasty tone deaf self. That department, through multiple governments, reflects the very worst of British curtain twitching, NIMBYish, jobsworth, “rules are rules” callousness.

Preferred PM is the most accurate figure and on that Starmer only leads Johnson by 3%. The same as the Labour voting intention lead

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497663508179083264?s=20&t=QQpxdql6skhkyPIL2AKUcQ

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

Perfect opportunity for a drone strike…

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.

The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.

Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.

All EU states closing airspace for Russian carriers. https://twitter.com/matthiasdeiss/status/1497671385686196228

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

If you look at wikipedia (which one hopes is roughly right) a huge amount of the Russian's armaments are described as reserves. 16500 tanks vs 2800 active as an example.

not_on_fire said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

Putins argument is that they are all Nazis

Putin's argument is that the Ukrainian leadership are Nazis (or, more precisely, neo-Nazis and drug addicts) and that he wants to free the rest of the Ukrainian people from them. It's one of the reasons why he's in such a bind. If he begins a wholesale slaughter of the Ukrainian civil population then trying to maintain the pretence of being a liberator garlanded with flowers is going to be somewhat difficult. Even the more credulous elements of the Russian population, who generally swallow the output of the state media uncritically, might begin to smell a rat under such circumstances.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (+1)
CON: 34% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 23-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 9-11 Feb.

SKS fans please explain?

What better chance than the last week to prove himself the anti-Corbyn?

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

It would be rather ironic that if Putin corrupt regime funnelling all this dodgy money into the military has in fact been used to enrich the top brass rather than build out his arsenal of weaponry.

However, I think I will reserve judgment about this based on random tweets, when so much misinformation flying about.

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

The material is reworked, effects from Instagram have been added, and his statements are cut off old statements that someone pasted on and that do not even match the movement of the mouth. Original video with Kadyrov, from which the frame and his lips are taken here:
https://youtu.be/rwyfOOTJNpE?t=4

HYUFD said:

Preferred PM is the most accurate figure and on that Starmer only leads Johnson by 3%. The same as the Labour voting intention lead

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497663508179083264?s=20&t=QQpxdql6skhkyPIL2AKUcQ

“Only” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Johnson’s supposed to be your election winning machine.

DougSeal said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris beats Starmer for standing up to Russia by 28% to 19%

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1497664514946478082?t=etezeFWOPIjWYWBrIYJq4w&s=19

I’m sure Churchill beat Attlee for standing up to Hitler. Fat lot of good it did the Tories at the 1945 GE.

Attlee spent five years managing the wartime economy specifically to help beat Hitler. I know Churchill accused him of wanting to refound the Gestapo but I don't think that cut much ice.

Omnium said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

If you look at wikipedia (which one hopes is roughly right) a huge amount of the Russian's armaments are described as reserves. 16500 tanks vs 2800 active as an example.

Which of course prompts the question of how many of those reserve vehicles actually exist, how many are rusting hulks, how many are serviceable but lack spares, and how many are in fully operational condition but lack fuel, ammunition, a qualified crew or all three?

IanB2 said:

Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.

Yes it is excellent. Damning on Boeing's corporate culture and the corrosive influence of C-suite greed and the tyranny of the quarterly reporting cycle. Incredible how someone can preside over it all and leave with an eight figure golden parachute.

pigeon said:

Omnium said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

If you look at wikipedia (which one hopes is roughly right) a huge amount of the Russian's armaments are described as reserves. 16500 tanks vs 2800 active as an example.

Which of course prompts the question of how many of those reserve vehicles actually exist, how many are rusting hulks, how many are serviceable but lack spares, and how many are in fully operational condition but lack fuel, ammunition, a qualified crew or all three?

Indeed.

Ireland has lifted visa requirements for Ukrainians. https://twitter.com/hmcentee/status/1497158118509187076

Meanwhile...

@pritipatel This is important. Please clarify.

If Home Office has lifted income/language requirements & restrictions to closest relatives that wd be first step.

But website says they all still apply & that’s what people are being told.

Ukraine is in crisis. We need simple sanctuary route https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1497672366133952515/photo/1

On topic, leadership approval has been significantly less correlated to the outcome fo the next general election than voting intention. However, neither are a good guide two years out. Starmer may triumph at the next election, he may not, but I'm afraid that mid-term polls tell us nothing at all either way.

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

Perhaps they spent all the money on the war room and now Russia's exposing itself as a Potemkin power.

tlg86 said:

TimS said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.

The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.

Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.

How many Russians between Putin and the button/key? I’m not certain his orders would be obeyed.

As I said earlier this evening, you may be right but I'd rather that my own life and the entire future of civilization didn't hinge on the robustness of the Russian command and control structure and it's ability to foil a psychotic suicidal lunatic. A successful palace coup is the best resolution to this crisis.

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

tlg86 said:

TimS said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

This ends in his death, one way or other. Either in the manner of Mussolini of Ceaucescu, or incinerated along with the rest of us in a nuclear blast.

The more he loses without a coup happening, the more likely we’re heading for the latter.

Someone in the Kremlin needs to do something very brave. The prize is saving at least a country, at most an entire hemisphere.

How many Russians between Putin and the button/key? I’m not certain his orders would be obeyed.

I'm in no doubt that a lot of Russians (maybe 50-60% if you count up all of them, particularly across the small towns and rural Russia?) in principle support Putin and believe that Ukraine should really be Russian territory. But, but it's far from universal, and many of those same people will be basically rational and won't follow him to the bitter end in a nasty and protracted war where he sounds increasingly unhinged.

I wonder what Labour's lead would be on he methodology they used to use. If nine became three God knows what four would have been!

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

Who'd want to be the general to tell Putin he was wrong?

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

I think it is more likely the Russian underestimated their adversary, both in tactical prowess, armament, and desire. I think they partly believe their own rhetoric in that regard, that Russia is a liberator.

JosiasJessop said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

Off topic, for those looking for some relief from the death and destruction in Ukraine, the recently released Downfall documentary film on Netflix, about Boeing and the 747 Max scandal, is well worth a watch.

Yes it is excellent. Damning on Boeing's corporate culture and the corrosive influence of C-suite greed and the tyranny of the quarterly reporting cycle. Incredible how someone can preside over it all and leave with an eight figure golden parachute.

I don't have Netflix, but I can imagine there's lots of material. Boeing have really, really mucked up several high-profile projects and products. Their reputation has gone down the toilet.

It is sad because as the film makes clear they used to have a well deserved reputation for engineering excellence. When you see the sheer complexity of these machines, the miles of wiring inside each one, my main feeling was that it's a miracle they don't crash more often. They are phenomenally reliable, mostly. But the company's failures over the Max project are absolutely jaw-dropping.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

It's also possible that the Russian conventional forces are largely a hollowed-out basket case. Much of Europe has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on domestic priorities. Perhaps the Russian elite has denuded its defences to spend the excess cash on tarts, cars and yachts?

I don't know, it's probably just wishful thinking on my part, but maybe - just maybe - they are a lot weaker than their previous quick wins making modest gains from puny opponents (the Georgians; the Ukrainians themselves eight years ago) made them appear.

Asking average underpaid Russian conscripts to slaughter fellow Slavs, often Russian speaking, in a country always seemed as "part of the Slavo-Russian family" is a huge task.

Killing Muslims or Africans or whatever (to be brutal) that's, sadly, not so hard. But butchering Orthodox Slavs who suffered USSR communism just like you, and who can argue with you in your own language?

Could Mancunian troops be easily persuaded to open fire on the peaceful, unthreatening people of Dundee or Glasgow, for all of HYUFD's urging? I really really doubt it

This, no doubt is why the Evil Putin is bringing in the rockets and the Chechens

The Met and other southern police that the Thatcher government sent north to beat up the miners weren't very squeamish about it.

A friend of mine was a mining engineer. He had to continue work or the pit would have become defunct.

He was attacked on his way to work and beaten up, and his bicycle thrown in the river. He also had to arm himself with an iron bar when the mob were attacking their own buildings and stand in an office corridor where "they could only come at me one at a time".

I don't think anyone should have been squeamish about beating the pickets up.

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Chameleon said:

I've said it before, but this is just all baffling:

Russian airforce failing to to achieve air supremacy
Whole convoys of Russian vehicles being abandoned due to a lack of fuel just days and tens of kms in.
Support and light arms convoys being sent right into set defences with NLAWs
Russian generals running low on rockets, despite supposedly having many stockpiled.
The airforce killing a good portion of the VDV by either flying troop transporters into SAM defences, or right into the sea.
Russia supposedly having no real battle plan and failing to get allied help.

Some of these are surely disinfo (1, 2, 3 are all proven fact), but there's enough to point to a seriously dysfunctional command structure who are unprepared for the war they started.

Did they possibly believe Putin when he said he wasn't planning to invade? And therefore made minimal preparations they thought would be for show.

It would suggest they are stupid. But we're slowly being forced to that conclusion anyway.

*If* things aren't going as Russia planned (that is far from certain, as we have no visibility of their plan), then a significant factor might be that the Russian military has been lying to itself, and the leadership, for years. "Sure we have 100 combat-ready tanks in that warehouse," when in reality the maintenance money had bene going into someone's back pocket. It could be the entire system's riddled with capabilities that exist only on paper.

Yes, the Russian Army may well be like the Afghan Army, a few first rate troops, and a lot of paper capability, but that evaporates when put to the test.

I certainly hope so.

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Summat's up - a couple of Lufthansa flights to the Far East have turned round before entering Russian airspace:

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1497655240690180101?s=20&t=N7jB51R046s3YvWxfV2VVQ

I believe that the entire EU has now closed its airspace to Russian flights, so Russia will have responded in kind.

Yup

Scott_xP said:

Ireland has lifted visa requirements for Ukrainians. https://twitter.com/hmcentee/status/1497158118509187076

Meanwhile...

@pritipatel This is important. Please clarify.

If Home Office has lifted income/language requirements & restrictions to closest relatives that wd be first step.

But website says they all still apply & that’s what people are being told.

Ukraine is in crisis. We need simple sanctuary route https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1497672366133952515/photo/1

Johnson or Patel had better get the Home Office’s arse into gear before PMQs or it could be a public relations bloodbath.

There is another explanation for the poor military planning. That senior folk think he's gone mad. And only a shambles will bring him down.
In a way that could be the most optimistic view of all.

Barnesian said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I think this is really good news..

@visegrad24·20m

"We are shocked that the Ukrainians have so many weapons.

We have no desire to fight against the Ukrainian people,"

Chechen leader Kadyrov

Commentators say Kadyrov means he wouldn’t fight against the Ukrainian people but would with “Neo-Nazi Ukrainians”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497666363871182850

The material is reworked, effects from Instagram have been added, and his statements are cut off old statements that someone pasted on and that do not even match the movement of the mouth. Original video with Kadyrov, from which the frame and his lips are taken here:
https://youtu.be/rwyfOOTJNpE?t=4

yes a deep fake

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed

That would mean a lot of by-elections. Oh, wait, you meant the Russians?

TimS said:

The home office is, as usual, being its nasty tone deaf self. That department, through multiple governments, reflects the very worst of British curtain twitching, NIMBYish, jobsworth, “rules are rules” callousness.

Didnt Patel have a covid grassing up hotline? Shoudl have used it herself to grass up Johnson

Roger said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Remember:

Lose the 'and'

Why don't you just f**k off and join the Tories

Fairliered said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Someone needs to slot Rabid Dog Putin

Absolutely NO ONE wants this war, except Putin himself

So kill him, and the problem goes away

Yes. He needs to go now.

Do they not have the equivalent of Graham Brady and the 1922 committee in Russia? I imagine their equivalent does a bit more than write a strongly worded letter.

Though if their coup fails they either get life in prison or executed

That would mean a lot of by-elections. Oh, wait, you meant the Russians?

Probably, though Boris had said his favourite film is the Godfather

PJohnson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Russia moves in heavy flamethrower weapon

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports on the Russians moving a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower that shoots thermobaric rockets near Kharkiv, Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCsycTW8mGc

Yes the more Ukraine resists the worse and more bloody it will be for them. Do the ukrainian people really want this

Seems very much like it - a large proportion of them, at least.

Perhaps the notion of attempting to resist and dying fighting appeals more than being crushed under the heel of Tsar Vladimir's jackboot forever?