politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th

Matt is going to rue the day

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwuKLvLCcAAQTZy.jpg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Matt is going to rue the day

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwuKLvLCcAAQTZy.jpg

Titter

RobD said:

isam said:

Quincel said:

isam said:

Tykejohnno said:

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick ·
Friday's Times front page - "Let us come home, say young British jihadists" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #IS pic.twitter.com/hJzN8KBhtD

Incredible

Emily Thornberry thinks we should let them come home then go through the proper channels to prosecute once they've bombed London.

Not making this up, watch yesterday's daily politics

If she means "Arrest them at the airport" I'm not that against that, though I also don't object to just keeping them away. If we have an open and shut case (for example, they are identifiable from a video killing someone) then we should be able to process them quickly, and I'd rather have them in jail for 40 years than staying in Syria killing more people.

To be fair I've just watched it again and I think I have misrepresented her a bit... It's worth watching I've never sen Andrew Neil so angry

He was arguing they should be made stateless, she was saying arrest them. At one point in the row he said "why let people in who are going to bomb us?" She aid "we should arrest them..." But I think she meant before they bomb us rather than after

Wow, I just saw this Times front page. Sorry, they've made their bed by choosing to fight for ISIS. If they come back here, they should be arrested and charged under the terrorism act, and put in prison for a long time.

Its possible they went to Syria when the UK government was supporting the ISIS side against Assad.

hucks67 said:

isam said:

Here is Neil vs Thornberry

http://youtu.be/dC92n8ICxLM

Typical Neil. He asks people for their opinions and then talks over them to tell them why they are wrong, when he does not have the knowledge to base his view. Thornberry is a lawyer and expressed what most experts have said on the subject. But of course Neil knows more than all these experts, as he had read information on the subject.

Neil really is an egotistical knob !

And so is Thornberry,people like her high up in the labour party is a reason why my family stopped voting labour.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyone else noticed the No lead has collapsed since Gordon Brown joined the campaign trail?

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics now

Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown will join forces on the campaign trail in last ditch bid to save the Union: http://bit.ly/1oJwMOE

I have to admit - this was always the big worry.

hucks67 said:

isam said:

Here is Neil vs Thornberry


Typical Neil. He asks people for their opinions and then talks over them to tell them why they are wrong, when he does not have the knowledge to base his view. Thornberry is a lawyer and expressed what most experts have said on the subject. But of course Neil knows more than all these experts, as he had read information on the subject.

Neil really is an egotistical knob !

I like him... But I'm no expert on law so I defer

Personally I'd have the army kneecap them at the airport

AndyJS said:

Will there be an exit poll at 10pm on 18th September?

No

AndyJS said:

Will there be an exit poll at 10pm on 18th September?

Pun intended ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Will there be an exit poll at 10pm on 18th September?

No

Bloody pollsters should get their act together ;-)

Exit polls cost a lot of money, and no one wants to pay for one.

Bloody cheapskates

HYUFD said:

KLE4 For goodness sake, if it is a 1% Yes lead in a poll sponsored by Yes, with the polling company which has already produced the only Yes lead of the entire referendum, then this is not the time to be running around like headless chickens. Two established pollsters, yougov and Survation, have No with a 6% lead after the only event which can really have produced a bounce for Yes, the second debate. The last Panelbase for Yes was only 52-48% No, so on the same 4 point Yes bounce as the other 2 polls Yes should be 4 points ahead not one.

In any case, a yougov is due out in the ST on Sunday, which will be announced on Saturday night, so little time for the Panelbase to make an impact, if that also shows a Yes then that is the time for No to start panicking. But hopefully, with Miliband making a clear left of SNP pitch to Labour voters today Labour is finally getting its act together. The Tories have done their job for No, their voters are overwhelmingly No, as, largely, have the LDs, the SNP to be fair to them have done the same for Yes with their supporters overwhelmingly Yes. Labour has not with a third of Labour supporters now for Yes, as they have most to lose electorally it seems they have finally woken up, with Brown and Reid also making tours of the Central Belt

In many if not most elections the losing side still leads in a couple of polls, and in Quebec in 1995 Yes led in all the final polls but No still won as undecideds went for No

Obama got 51.1% of the vote in 2012 and that was good enough to put his finger on the nuclear button. He carried just 26 states compared with 24 by Romney..
6% is enormous.

Looking at the American electoral map I do find it amjusing to see places like Georgia and the Carolinas voting Republican now. I'm sure James Longstreet would be amused as well.

Tim_B said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Matt is going to rue the day

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwuKLvLCcAAQTZy.jpg

Titter

Slick :-)

I see what you did there.

Flightpath said:

HYUFD said:

KLE4 For goodness sake, if it is a 1% Yes lead in a poll sponsored by Yes, with the polling company which has already produced the only Yes lead of the entire referendum, then this is not the time to be running around like headless chickens. Two established pollsters, yougov and Survation, have No with a 6% lead after the only event which can really have produced a bounce for Yes, the second debate. The last Panelbase for Yes was only 52-48% No, so on the same 4 point Yes bounce as the other 2 polls Yes should be 4 points ahead not one.

In any case, a yougov is due out in the ST on Sunday, which will be announced on Saturday night, so little time for the Panelbase to make an impact, if that also shows a Yes then that is the time for No to start panicking. But hopefully, with Miliband making a clear left of SNP pitch to Labour voters today Labour is finally getting its act together. The Tories have done their job for No, their voters are overwhelmingly No, as, largely, have the LDs, the SNP to be fair to them have done the same for Yes with their supporters overwhelmingly Yes. Labour has not with a third of Labour supporters now for Yes, as they have most to lose electorally it seems they have finally woken up, with Brown and Reid also making tours of the Central Belt

In many if not most elections the losing side still leads in a couple of polls, and in Quebec in 1995 Yes led in all the final polls but No still won as undecideds went for No

Obama got 51.1% of the vote in 2012 and that was good enough to put his finger on the nuclear button. He carried just 26 states compared with 24 by Romney..
6% is enormous.

Looking at the American electoral map I do find it amjusing to see places like Georgia and the Carolinas voting Republican now. I'm sure James Longstreet would be amused as well.

On signing the Civil Rights Act in 1964, LBJ lamented that this would cost Democrats the South for a generation. He underestimated.

In my home state of Georgia there is not a single statewide elected Democrat.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 19s

Folkestone Harvey Central (Shepway):

UKIP GAIN from Conservative

UKIP gain Folkestone

Putting the address of the winning Lab candidate into google, it gives me this road
https://www.google.it/maps/preview?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&ie=UTF-8&q=32+mitcham+road+camberley&layer=c&z=17&iwloc=A&sll=51.352965,-0.720466&cbp=13,184.3,0,0,0&cbll=51.353145,-0.720445&ei=JugIVJmsJsfnaJLigdAE&ved=0CCMQxB0wAA

postal code says it is within the Old Dean ward.

another_richard said:

HurstLlama said:

Its Harry Hayfield I feel sorry for. He does a lot of work which is then ignored by everybody on here.

Come on chaps at least say thank you.

Thank you.

BTW does anyone know what shithole council estate Old Dean in Surrey Heath is ?

RobD said:

Gawd, twitter is pretty fun:

PolitiCrumb ‏@politicrumb 1m
Looks like the Panelbase poll rumours is just BT playing manipulative expectation games. I'll believe it when I see it #indyref #voteyes

This is great news for Yes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 39s
Folkestone Harvey Central (Shepway) result:
UKIP - 27.9% (+27.9)
CON - 21.7% (-17.3)
LDEM - 19.2% (+2.3)
LAB - 19.0% (-9.1)
OTH - 12.1%

Labour on the slide!

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 39s
Folkestone Harvey Central (Shepway) result:
UKIP - 27.9% (+27.9)
CON - 21.7% (-17.3)
LDEM - 19.2% (+2.3)
LAB - 19.0% (-9.1)
OTH - 12.1%

Labour on the slide!

Sleazy broken Labour on the slide, down 2 places, Con only 1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 39s
Folkestone Harvey Central (Shepway) result:
UKIP - 27.9% (+27.9)
CON - 21.7% (-17.3)
LDEM - 19.2% (+2.3)
LAB - 19.0% (-9.1)
OTH - 12.1%

Good call by Harry! Quite something when 27.9% is enough to win the seat - can't beat FPTP for fun and games.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Gawd, twitter is pretty fun:

PolitiCrumb ‏@politicrumb 1m
Looks like the Panelbase poll rumours is just BT playing manipulative expectation games. I'll believe it when I see it #indyref #voteyes

This is great news for Yes.

Hah! A phrase I haven't heard in a while, since things have actually been good for Yes

One of my friend's is a Scot, and he lives in England, and he says the best thing for No is the polls tightening.

His biggest fear for years has been that the polls show a big no lead, no voters stay at home thinking it is a forgone conclusion and Yes wins that way.

Yeah, the closer it is, the higher the turnout will be. Good for democracy!

Words simple fail me, not only does Ed Miliband turn up late to the Indy Ref debate, he then tries to use the debate to play Westminster politics. What a complete and utter pillock!

Alan Cochrane in Daily Telegraph - Crass Miliband must get his priorities right
"Ed Miliband did himself no favours yesterday with his attempt to use some words of Ruth Davidson as a stick with which he could beat David Cameron.

The Tory leader who, as even her political opponents in Scotland concede, was "taking one for the team" when she let slip that according to the current polls a Cameron victory in next year's general election was not "likely". But like a drowning man clutching at a straw, Mr Miliband engineered a stupid story that he believed would aid his own chances next spring.

The official reason was that rubbishing the idea of a Tory victory helped the chances of a No vote in the referendum, but what the Labour leader didn't bargain on or simply ignored was the genuine annoyance his crass behaviour caused in the Better Together camp."

Don't know if anyone on here has mentioned it, but Joan Rivers died today.

I still remember seeing her many years ago on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson. Carson asked her if she thought men went for intelligence over looks.

She shot right back with "A man doesn't put his hand up a woman's dress looking for a llibrary card". She was very funny.

HYUFD said:

Flighpath Exactly and I see the former Republican Governor of Virginia has just been jailed

He and his wife have been convicted, and will be sentenced Jan 6

Tykejohnno said:

Your doing the same,rightwing media bias,have you read your post back to yourself and you calling people numbskulls/idiots - lol

The tendency of presenters to puff themselves up and try to dominate the debate is a pernicious American thing which has been creeping in with Clarkson, Neil and Paxman. It's another bit of show biz conquering serious debate, and it sucks regardless of whether the presenter is left- or right-wing. If they want to express their own opinions, let them stand for office.

Hugh said:

Tykejohnno said:

Hugh said:

hucks67 said:

isam said:

Here is Neil vs Thornberry

http://youtu.be/dC92n8ICxLM

Typical Neil. He asks people for their opinions and then talks over them to tell them why they are wrong, when he does not have the knowledge to base his view. Thornberry is a lawyer and expressed what most experts have said on the subject. But of course Neil knows more than all these experts, as he had read information on the subject.

Neil really is an egotistical knob !

Neil is unapologetically rightwing. I like him for niche stuff like the Daily Politics, but the BBC shouldn't let him have high profile gigs like Newsnight where impartiality is required.

They only do so in a vain attempt to stop the massed ranks of Rightwing media idiots and their numbskull followers squealing about bias.

Your doing the same,rightwing media bias,have you read your post back to yourself and you calling people numbskulls/idiots - lol

I didn't call the BBC rightwing. They're clearly the most impartial. Most of the broadcast media is OK, though not as good as the BBC.

Obviously though, the print media from which the broadcast media take their lead is utterly dominated by the Right.

Anyway, Andrew Neil is not impartial enough for high profile gigs on the BBC. He's second only to Adam Boulton in his inability to hide his Rightwing leanings.

Just read this post again of yours - hugh posted -

They only do so in a vain attempt to stop the massed ranks of Rightwing media idiots and their numbskull followers squealing about bias

Again,what are you doing in the post above,you do make me laugh Hughie lad.

Rightwing bias everywhere - lol

Lord George Robertson just shifted some more into the yes camp.
Said an independent Scotland would be a minor entity at the north of Britain.
He's got to be deep undercover.

Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

Lord George Robertson just shifted some more into the yes camp.
Said an independent Scotland would be a minor entity at the north of Britain.
He's got to be deep undercover.

Possible, but perhaps a better way of saying it would be to point out that the Union allows the Scots to 'piggy back' their infulence onto a wider world stage. As part of the Union the Scots have a big (bigger) say in the world.
It may be of course that there is a kipper element to the Nats who would rather the world went away - I don't know.

I did note that Jon Snow failed to make the cut on this list.

isam said:

NickPalmer said:

Tykejohnno said:

Your doing the same,rightwing media bias,have you read your post back to yourself and you calling people numbskulls/idiots - lol

The tendency of presenters to puff themselves up and try to dominate the debate is a pernicious American thing which has been creeping in with Clarkson, Neil and Paxman. It's another bit of show biz conquering serious debate, and it sucks regardless of whether the presenter is left- or right-wing. If they want to express their own opinions, let them stand for office.

Nice balance of left and right in your examples there Nicholas

TimB Thanks for the McDonnell update

HYUFD said:

kle4 Indeed, no reporting of Robertson comments on BBC news website or any newspaper I can see, though if he did say them he is an idiot and I am a No, Yes or No Scotland remains a great nation, night!

He said in the referendum programme that goes out weeknights in Scotland

Typical of the newspapers' reports of Roy Hodgson's reaction to England's awful performance against Norway at Wembley on Wednesday evening, the Daily Mail reported:

"A furious Roy Hodgson blew his top over criticism of England’s uninspiring performance in their 1-0 victory over Norway at Wembley.
Clearly irritated when asked to comment on the fact his side had only two shots on target, Hodgson snapped back: ‘I’m not going to judge it because someone is going to tell me, “Well, you only had two shots at goal” because that is absolute f****** b*******, I’m sorry.’"

Oh dear, it would seem that Fleet Street has at last turned en bloc against Woy and once that happens the England manager has absolutely no chance of recovering the situation. Some elements of the press believe he should already have been sacked after England's miserable showing at the World Cup this summer.

For those who believe the England manager will see out his current contract, those nice people at bwin are offering odds of 8/11, for those who believe otherwise, including yours truly, they are offering even money.
DYOR.

With the Scottish referendum coming up, now is perhaps a good time to watch Jonathan Meades' excellent 2009 series "Off Kilter".

The first episode is about Aberdeen:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNbc7NeW3Wg

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Will there be an exit poll at 10pm on 18th September?

No

Referendum night will be a hell of a lot more interesting in that case.

In that clip, George Robertson looks younger than he did 20 years ago and age 68 he doesn't have a grey hair in his head ...... ahem, quite amazing.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 19s

Folkestone Harvey Central (Shepway):

UKIP GAIN from Conservative

Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide?

AndyJS said:

peter_from_putney said:

UKPR Polling average now updated to 03.09.14 showing:

Con 33%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, Greens 4%, Others 4%.

Con and Lab the same, UKIP up one point.

In depth analysis of the first three Sunil on Sunday ELBOWs (Electoral Leader-Board of the Week) 17th/24th/31st August shows:

Lab -0.1%, Con NC, UKIP +0.9%, LD -1.3%

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndyJS said:

peter_from_putney said:

UKPR Polling average now updated to 03.09.14 showing:

Con 33%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, Greens 4%, Others 4%.

Con and Lab the same, UKIP up one point.

In depth analysis of the first three Sunil on Sunday ELBOWs (Electoral Leader-Board of the Week) 17th/24th/31st August shows:

Lab -0.1%, Con NC, UKIP +0.9%, LD -1.3%

Sunil - what are your percentages for the parties, rather than their % changes over the past week?

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 And judging by the Record front page it seems there is no Yes lead poll anyway

Long may it continue.

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 39s
Folkestone Harvey Central (Shepway) result:
UKIP - 27.9% (+27.9)
CON - 21.7% (-17.3)
LDEM - 19.2% (+2.3)
LAB - 19.0% (-9.1)
OTH - 12.1%

Good call by Harry! Quite something when 27.9% is enough to win the seat - can't beat FPTP for fun and games.

Yes indeed. Anyone know what the lowest winning percentage anywhere has been in a FPTP election? 1992 in Inverness is apparently the lowest for the UK Parliament at 26.0%, 3.41% separating the top 4, though the same page links to an extraordinary result in Caithness in 1945 where it was:

Unionist Eric Leslie Gandar Dower 5,564 33.5%
Labour Robert MacInnes 5,558 33.4%
Liberal Sir Archibald Sinclair 5,503 33.1%

Caithness and Sutherland, 1945http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverness,_Nairn_and_Lochaber_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caithness_and_Sutherland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_in_the_1940s

I'm sure some locals can have gotten lower winning percentages though.

There was one in Cornwall recently where the winning candidate got less than 20%.

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Will there be an exit poll at 10pm on 18th September?

No

Referendum night will be a hell of a lot more interesting in that case.

Do we have a sense of declaration times for the various councils (or counting areas)?

If you look at my Scottish prediction spreadsheet, you can see how many total votes are likely to be cast in each council area or alternatively the electorate or population.
The ones with the fewest votes are obviously more likely to declare first, with the possible exception of remote places like Orkney and Shetland. Western Isles is usually a quick declarer, incidentally.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/htmlview?usp=drive_web

"Now that Douglas Carswell is Nigel’s bitch, he will perpetually be picking up the political equivalent of prison soap."

UKIPs Roger Lord demonstrating his metrosexual charm, there. (And his suitablility as a candidate)

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/04/nigel-farage-candidate-ukip-clacton-douglas-carswell?commentpage=1

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Will there be an exit poll at 10pm on 18th September?

No

Referendum night will be a hell of a lot more interesting in that case.

Do we have a sense of declaration times for the various councils (or counting areas)?

If you look at my Scottish prediction spreadsheet, you can see how many total votes are likely to be cast in each council area or alternatively the electorate or population.
The ones with the fewest votes are obviously more likely to declare first, with the possible exception of remote places like Orkney and Shetland. Western Isles is usually a quick declarer, incidentally.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/htmlview?usp=drive_web

Thanks, I wonder if you could add a sheet where you can enter results as they come in, it will fill in the undeclared regions and project a result. The more results in, the more accurate it becomes (obviously).

Yes I'm thinking of doing something like that. Difficult to believe the media won't do something similar but you never know.

Are they looking at jail time?

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

TimB Thanks for the McDonnell update

He was convicted on 11 counts, his wife on 9 - going from memory.

He was offered a plea deal to plead to 1 count and his wife to go free. He turned it down. Bad move.

old_labour said:

Are they looking at jail time?

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

TimB Thanks for the McDonnell update

He was convicted on 11 counts, his wife on 9 - going from memory.

He was offered a plea deal to plead to 1 count and his wife to go free. He turned it down. Bad move.

major jail time