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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th 2014

Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 33, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 6, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 18)
Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 288 (32%), Green 235 (26%), Liberal Democrat 207 (23%), Conservative 159 (18%)
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here

Ninoinoz

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

Plato

I didn't know that. I gather Aylesbury in another name that's popped up today, and a friend mentioned Milton Keynes as another potential.

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

Theuniondivvie

Has Shadsy's Panelbase poll bet disappeared?

JosiasJessop

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

Are you sure the problem in Oxford was the fault of Labour-led Oxford City Council, or the Conservative-led Oxfordshire County Council?

Hint: the county council runs the social services. Which is why the blessed Conservative-led council apologised, and the evil Labour-led city council did not have to.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/victims-blamed-for-child-sex-abuse-as-oxford-council-chief-faces-calls-to-quit-over-exploitation-ring-8617831.html

Perhaps you should have held your tongue for longer ...

GIN1138

Will Indy Ref be counting two weeks tonight? Or are we looking at a Friday daytime count?

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

Has Shadsy's Panelbase poll bet disappeared?

He took it down earlier, to change the odds, I think that's what is happening now

Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 3h

@MSmithsonPB Don't panic, back up now although a YES lead is now 9/4.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

RodCrosby

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat.
The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

TheScreamingEagles

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

D_M

Re: Carfax and UKIP. They can't. There are a fair few young libertarian types in Oxford granted but I can still scarcely think of a less favourable ward for UKIP. I think Oxford council in general is unlikely to be fertile ground for them.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat.
The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

I will bow to your superior knowledge on such things.
Perils of misremembering things *blush*.

RodCrosby

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

In terms of seats gained? Somewhere I may have some, or could work them out...

TheScreamingEagles

RodCrosby said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

In terms of seats gained? Somewhere I may have some, or could work them out...

Yes, in terms of seat gains, and if you could, that would be brilliant (if you want to write the the thread yourself, that would be fine)

I just wanted to do an analysis working out do oppositions outperform UNS or not.

NickPalmer

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

Flightpath

Ninoinoz says
'This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.'

Oxford is a university town and has been lefty for a long time. Its also been traditionally a big industrial employer with its workers coming from traditional labour areas. Places like south wales.

Both the Oxford and Rotherham crimes have been known about for a while - that is the convictions took place some time ago. I am not sure that they were deliberately ignored by police and the council in Oxford like in Rotherham.

Is Oxford in 'The South'?? South Midlands perhaps.

RodCrosby

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

In terms of seats gained? Somewhere I may have some, or could work them out...

Yes, in terms of seat gains, and if you could, that would be brilliant (if you want to write the the thread yourself, that would be fine)

I just wanted to do an analysis working out do oppositions outperform UNS or not.

I think the answer is:- sometimes, but sometimes not...

RobD

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

Is it just me that can't access electoralcalculus.co.uk?

Ishmael_X

Flightpath said:

Ninoinoz says
'This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.'

Oxford is a university town and has been lefty for a long time. Its also been traditionally a big industrial employer with its workers coming from traditional labour areas. Places like south wales.

Both the Oxford and Rotherham crimes have been known about for a while - that is the convictions took place some time ago. I am not sure that they were deliberately ignored by police and the council in Oxford like in Rotherham.

Is Oxford in 'The South'?? South Midlands perhaps.

Thames Valley = the South.

Tykejohnno

Joan rivers as died.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/joan-rivers-dead-live-updates-4166987

TheScreamingEagles

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

Thanks, that's reviewing the polls' performance, am looking into the actual results performance vs UNS.

RodCrosby

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

That's poll-based, so not the same question...

TheScreamingEagles

RodCrosby said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

In terms of seats gained? Somewhere I may have some, or could work them out...

Yes, in terms of seat gains, and if you could, that would be brilliant (if you want to write the the thread yourself, that would be fine)

I just wanted to do an analysis working out do oppositions outperform UNS or not.

I think the answer is:- sometimes, but sometimes not...

Thanks, that what I suspected.

My own theory is Labour will outperform UNS next year (because of the LD > Lab switchers and the Con > UKIP traitors) but wanted to put it into some context.

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

Thanks, that's reviewing the polls' performance, am looking into the actual results performance vs UNS.

So you are going for a repeat of this but going much back further in time:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/07/andy-cooke-on-the-uns-part-2/

TheScreamingEagles

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

Thanks, that's reviewing the polls' performance, am looking into the actual results performance vs UNS.

So you are going for a repeat of this but going much back further in time:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/07/andy-cooke-on-the-uns-part-2/

Yes, and thanks.

Smarmeron

@Ishmael_X
8 arrests at Buckimham the other day, apparently going back to 2005.

MikeK

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4674/geert-wilders-speech

Geert Wilders speech to the Dutch parlament.

TheScreamingEagles

For anyone holding bet slips on Bob McConnell being the GOP candidate and or next President, look away now

Former Gov. Bob McDonnell, R-Va., and his wife, Maureen, have been found guilty on multiple counts of conspiracy, corruption and bribery.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/former-gov-bob-mcdonnell-found-guilty-in-corruption-trial/

MikeK

Tykejohnno said:

Joan rivers as died.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/joan-rivers-dead-live-updates-4166987

A great comic and a great lady.

Ishmael_X

Smarmeron said:

@Ishmael_X
8 arrests at Buckimham the other day, apparently going back to 2005.

??

That was purely a point about physical geography. Can't bear to get into an argument about anything else.

kle4

Interesting turnaround in Shepway. I know things can move more quickly in local government, but that's still notable.

Tykejohnno

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick · 1 min
Friday's i front page - "Cameron prepares for air strikes" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers (via @olyduff) pic.twitter.com/AblQgpttjg

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

Is it just me that can't access electoralcalculus.co.uk?

I can access it fine

manofkent2014

Flightpath said:

Ninoinoz says
'This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.'

Oxford is a university town and has been lefty for a long time. Its also been traditionally a big industrial employer with its workers coming from traditional labour areas. Places like south wales.

Both the Oxford and Rotherham crimes have been known about for a while - that is the convictions took place some time ago. I am not sure that they were deliberately ignored by police and the council in Oxford like in Rotherham.

Is Oxford in 'The South'?? South Midlands perhaps.

Oxford is in the South East Region.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford

isam

Jesus the woman beheaded in Edmonton was 82. How could anyone do this?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2743651/Woman-beheaded-machete-London-garden.html

nigel4england

Read on a previous thread that Lammy wants to be Mayor of London, should be a laugh:

http://owenjbennett.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/watch-calamity-lammy-in-action-labours.html

TheScreamingEagles

Possible spoiler alert for Saturday's episode

The BBC has edited a Doctor Who episode to remove footage where a character is beheaded, after the murder of two US journalists by Islamic State militants.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29068551?ocid=socialflow_twitter

Flightpath

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

The LibDems might have more to fear from the Greens.
The price for Oxford eschewing Conservative principles is that it is a dump with various anachronistic college buildings dotted about like currants in a bun.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

HanDodges

manofkent2014 said:

Flightpath said:

Ninoinoz says
'This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.'

Oxford is a university town and has been lefty for a long time. Its also been traditionally a big industrial employer with its workers coming from traditional labour areas. Places like south wales.

Both the Oxford and Rotherham crimes have been known about for a while - that is the convictions took place some time ago. I am not sure that they were deliberately ignored by police and the council in Oxford like in Rotherham.

Is Oxford in 'The South'?? South Midlands perhaps.

Oxford is in the South East Region.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford

Lefty Oxford being in the South spells disaster for Ed Miliband.

Tykejohnno

nigel4england said:

Read on a previous thread that Lammy wants to be Mayor of London, should be a laugh:

http://owenjbennett.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/watch-calamity-lammy-in-action-labours.html

And labour want to share things round -

http://sharethefacts.conservatives.com/post/96618359475/labour-admit-it-they-want-to-tax-your-family-home

Smarmeron

@isam
How could anyone do this?
I am treating that as a rhetorical question, and not a request on the methodology of doing it.

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RodCrosby said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Ninoinoz said:

Thank you for at least one thing, Harry.

This week I have held my tongue about the child abuse scandal in Oxford, simply not believing that a council in the South outside London would have no Conservative representation.

Oxford = Rotherham-on-Thames.

IIRC Oxford East used to be Bryan Gould's constituency which was one of the 2 tiny red dots in a sea of blue in the SE after the 83 election. Can't recall where the other one was though.

Nope. It went Tory in '83 and was never Gould's seat. The two you are thinking of were Ipswich and Thurrock...

Rod, I need to pick your brains for an upcoming thread.

Do you have any figures, say going back to 1950 onwards, to see if the Opposition outperforms or underperforms UNS at a General election?

This is from 1992 onwards.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html

Thanks, that's reviewing the polls' performance, am looking into the actual results performance vs UNS.

So you are going for a repeat of this but going much back further in time:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/07/andy-cooke-on-the-uns-part-2/

Yes, and thanks.

You can try the series of books of David Butler on each British general election.
Beware the older the rarer and more pricey.

RodCrosby

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

The LibDems might have more to fear from the Greens.
The price for Oxford eschewing Conservative principles is that it is a dump with various anachronistic college buildings dotted about like currants in a bun.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

In 2010, the LibDems won the city-wide vote, but failed to win either seat...

Plato

It was - Islington was another IIRC.

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

The LibDems might have more to fear from the Greens.
The price for Oxford eschewing Conservative principles is that it is a dump with various anachronistic college buildings dotted about like currants in a bun.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

MikeK

Moderated - This is an ongoing criminal investigation, please don't post things like that.

corporeal

Tony Brett (Lib Dem candidate in the above Oxford by-election) has had his house vandalised (mainly with spray painted messages all over it).

kle4

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was. The area with the highest proportion of YES was...Hackney, for some reason.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was.

David Cameron was on one side, Ed Miliband on the other in that referendum

It is an omen for 2015.

RodCrosby

kle4 said:

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was.

And that (unsurprisingly) the residents of Oxford and Cambridge are smarter than the average...

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was.

David Cameron was on one side, Ed Miliband on the other in that referendum

It is an omen for 2015.

Well of course, Ed M was still finding his feet in those days. A false dawn for his influence perhaps.

another_richard

With the current problems at various nuclear and coal fired power stations its good to know that we can still rely on windmills for electricity production:

Well at least 0.56% of our electricity production:

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

MikeK

David Coburn MEP ‏@DavidCoburnUKip 8h
Salmond ''If Mr Farage comes in a blaze of publicity in the next few days, - ignore him, he will go back to Clacton soon.'' Glasgow 2 Sept

Sharon McGonigal ‏@Shazza1uk 1h
@DavidCoburnUKip sounds like someones a bit jealous of the amount of publicity Nigel attracts.

Smarmeron

@another_richard
If you run short, Scotland will sell you it.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

O/T
ISIS militant with an apparent US Army tattoo

twitter.com/RisingTruth1/status/507087321725140993/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwmJOt1CUAArDPf.jpg

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was.

David Cameron was on one side, Ed Miliband on the other in that referendum

It is an omen for 2015.

Well of course, Ed M was still finding his feet in those days. A false dawn for his influence perhaps.

His leader ratings were higher then than they are now.

So he's even more toxic now.

In the Ipsos-Mori leader ratings in the month before AV referendum, Ed's net rating was plus 1. Now it is minus 29

HanDodges

Plato said:

It was - Islington was another IIRC.

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

The LibDems might have more to fear from the Greens.
The price for Oxford eschewing Conservative principles is that it is a dump with various anachronistic college buildings dotted about like currants in a bun.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Lefty metrosexual Islington being deemed pro AV by a pseudo Greek philosopher spells...








...disaster for Ed Miliband.

kle4

I imagine someone else has noticed this at some point today, but even with my copious freetime I have not the energy to check, but I see TSE's twitter feed was referenced on Buzzfeed today regarding the puppies and kitten debate in Parliament.

HanDodges

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was.

David Cameron was on one side, Ed Miliband on the other in that referendum

It is an omen for 2015.

A disaster for Ed?

You are a man after my own heart.

Speedy

corporeal said:

Tony Brett (Lib Dem candidate in the above Oxford by-election) has had his house vandalised (mainly with spray painted messages all over it).

Could be worse.
Lloyd George had his house bombed by feminists 101 years ago.

RobD

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

O/T
ISIS militant with an apparent US Army tattoo

twitter.com/RisingTruth1/status/507087321725140993/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwmJOt1CUAArDPf.jpg

Looks like a CSI enhance job.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

I imagine someone else has noticed this at some point today, but even with my copious freetime I have not the energy to check, but I see TSE's twitter feed was referenced on Buzzfeed today regarding the puppies and kitten debate in Parliament.

It was

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/britains-mps-are-currently-debating-puppies-and-kittens#u8d04j

BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY - SUSANNA REID FAVOURITED ONE OF MY TWEETS TODAY

This was nearly as brilliant as the time Andrew Neil quoted me on the BBC.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was.

David Cameron was on one side, Ed Miliband on the other in that referendum

It is an omen for 2015.

Well of course, Ed M was still finding his feet in those days. A false dawn for his influence perhaps.

His leader ratings were higher then than they are now.

So he's even more toxic now.

In the Ipsos-Mori leader ratings in the month before AV referendum, Ed's net rating was plus 1. Now it is minus 29

Remarkable figures. With numbers like that, I don't know how he gets as lucky as he does.


BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY - SUSANNA REID FAVOURITED ONE OF MY TWEETS TODAY

Awesome stuff!

another_richard

This government's energy policy illustrated:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j70kiQy277A

Meanwhile Germany commissioned six new coal fired power stations last year.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Flightpath said:

NickPalmer said:

From the Labour viewpoint I'd be more worried by the Greens than UKIP in Oxford.

BTW I think Oxford was just about the only part of the country to vote for AV.

Well remembered it seems, in what was otherwise one of the strongest regions for NO. Cambridge and Oxford were each the only areas of their respective regions to vote YES apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

Man, that page really brings home what a brutal victory for the No side that day was.

David Cameron was on one side, Ed Miliband on the other in that referendum

It is an omen for 2015.

Well of course, Ed M was still finding his feet in those days. A false dawn for his influence perhaps.

His leader ratings were higher then than they are now.

So he's even more toxic now.

In the Ipsos-Mori leader ratings in the month before AV referendum, Ed's net rating was plus 1. Now it is minus 29

Remarkable figures. With numbers like that, I don't know how he gets as lucky as he does.

We Tories are backing Labour, so Lab don't ditch him before the General Election

Speedy

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

O/T
ISIS militant with an apparent US Army tattoo

twitter.com/RisingTruth1/status/507087321725140993/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwmJOt1CUAArDPf.jpg

Well there was an incident with a muslim US army doctor.
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/fort-hood-shooting-army-doctor-leaves-12-dead/story?id=9007938

It wont surprise me if some muslim US army veterans behaved that way.

RobD

another_richard said:

This government's energy policy illustrated:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=j70kiQy277A

Meanwhile Germany commissioned six new coal fired power stations last year.

To be fair this government FINALLY signed some deals for some nuclear power plants. Unlike the previous 13 years where basically nothing was done.

MikeSmithson

@TSE "The omen for 2015" about the AV result is that the dim-witted Tories face an election under a electoral system which gives all the benefits to Labour. This was blindingly obvious at the time yet the blue team pressed ahead with a campaign that was totally against the party's interests.

Interesting that a key player for NO in that referendum was Dan Hodges..

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

Remarkable figures. With numbers like that, I don't know how he gets as lucky as he does.


BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY - SUSANNA REID FAVOURITED ONE OF MY TWEETS TODAY

Awesome stuff!

If you've not seen the video of her performance this morning, she makes an unfortunate sexual innuendo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZe777oON8w

and here's a pic of her favouriting my tweet

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bwsq5_NIgAAkS05.jpg:large

Smarmeron

@another_richard

How old are the plants that are getting blown up?

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

@TSE "The omen for 2015" about the AV result is that the dim-witted Tories face an election under a electoral system which gives all the benefits to Labour. This was blindingly obvious at the time yet the blue team pressed ahead with a campaign that was totally against the party's interests.

Interesting that a key player for NO in that referendum was Dan Hodges..

It's that old chestnut that the Tories should have supported AV because it helps them at the ballot box.

isam

Smarmeron said:

@isam
How could anyone do this?
I am treating that as a rhetorical question, and not a request on the methodology of doing it.

Of course! I'm not the kind for grisly descriptions let alone videos

It's so awful, no one deserves to die like that

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

@TSE "The omen for 2015" about the AV result is that the dim-witted Tories face an election under a electoral system which gives all the benefits to Labour. This was blindingly obvious at the time yet the blue team pressed ahead with a campaign that was totally against the party's interests.

Interesting that a key player for NO in that referendum was Dan Hodges..

Yeah, we put principle before partisan advantage (and weren't ready for Nick Clegg's perfidy over boundary changes)

Smarmeron

@isam
Black humour Isam, but yes, it is sickening.

Flightpath

manofkent2014 said:
''Oxford is in the South East Region''

This shows what is wrong with trying to regionalise England.

TheScreamingEagles

Ukip's Elizabeth Jones Completely Loses It On Radio And Screams At Guest To Shut Up

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/04/ukips-elizabeth-jones_n_5767266.html?ncid=whatsapp_politics

Tykejohnno

Folkestone, Harvey Central on Shepway (Con Defence)

UKIP Gain ?

Speedy

RobD said:

another_richard said:

This government's energy policy illustrated:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=j70kiQy277A

Meanwhile Germany commissioned six new coal fired power stations last year.

To be fair this government FINALLY signed some deals for some nuclear power plants. Unlike the previous 13 years where basically nothing was done.

I don't favour nuclear power plants, they are too expensive and too dangerous.
I prefer tidal power and versions of it, they do the same job but the chances of blowing up the country are nil.

HanDodges

MikeSmithson said:

@TSE "The omen for 2015" about the AV result is that the dim-witted Tories face an election under a electoral system which gives all the benefits to Labour. This was blindingly obvious at the time yet the blue team pressed ahead with a campaign that was totally against the party's interests.

Interesting that a key player for NO in that referendum was Dan Hodges..

That is because FPTP is a disaster for Ed Miliband. I think...

Casino_Royale

I find it amazing that a city such as Oxford doesn't have a *single* Conservative councillor. Even more so that it hasn't for over 10 years.

You'd have thought there'd at least be one or two professional/middle class pockets in a city of that size in south-east England.

Speedy

MikeSmithson said:

@TSE "The omen for 2015" about the AV result is that the dim-witted Tories face an election under a electoral system which gives all the benefits to Labour. This was blindingly obvious at the time yet the blue team pressed ahead with a campaign that was totally against the party's interests.

Interesting that a key player for NO in that referendum was Dan Hodges..

The Tories were against because they campaigned against the coalition and the idea of coalitions.
They won because the public was also against coalitions ironically after the bitter experience of this government.

MikeSmithson

Casino_Royale said:

I find it amazing that a city such as Oxford doesn't have a *single* Conservative councillor. Even more so that it hasn't for over 10 years.

You'd have thought there'd at least be one or two professional/middle class pockets in a city of that size in south-east England.

Yes Oxford must be one of the very few places that has a CON MP but not a CON councillor

TheScreamingEagles

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 6s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

Tykejohnno

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics ·
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

corporeal

Speedy said:

MikeSmithson said:

@TSE "The omen for 2015" about the AV result is that the dim-witted Tories face an election under a electoral system which gives all the benefits to Labour. This was blindingly obvious at the time yet the blue team pressed ahead with a campaign that was totally against the party's interests.

Interesting that a key player for NO in that referendum was Dan Hodges..

The Tories were against because they campaigned against the coalition and the idea of coalitions.
They won because the public was also against coalitions ironically after the bitter experience of this government.

That only makes sense if you go with the idea that the Tories didn't understand AV and its impact on the likelihood of coalitions.

initforthemoney

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah, we put principle before partisan advantage (and weren't ready for Nick Clegg's perfidy over boundary changes)

The only principle apparent was a desire to beg the question as much as possible. Most arguments boiled down to AV being contemptible because it sometimes gives diffierent results from FPTP.

RobD

Surely the Record has gone to the presses already....

bigjohnowls

Tonights YG LAB 347 CON 259 LD 18(ukpr) - EICIPM

Unfortunately not exciting enough to match The Susanna Reid retweeting TSE news

RobD

Highest UKIP YouGov for a while?

TheScreamingEagles

initforthemoney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah, we put principle before partisan advantage (and weren't ready for Nick Clegg's perfidy over boundary changes)

The only principle apparent was a desire to beg the question as much as possible. Most arguments boiled down to AV being contemptible because it sometimes gives diffierent results from FPTP.

I'm a Tory for electoral reform.

I'm surprised that Nick Clegg didn't demand (multi-member) STV, given that in 2009 he described AV as a miserable little compromise.

I would have voted for STV over FPTP

Dadge

Three interesting wards - I'm looking forward to the results. "Could Ukip pull off a surprise and win Carfax?" Er, no. Typical student ward - a 5-way marginal! I expect the Greens to take this handily this time.

Harvey Central is difficult to call, though I guess the chances are on Ukip coming from nowhere to win it. There is a possibility that Ukip will split the Tory vote and let Labour in, but I'm sure quite a few Labour voters will vote Ukip.

Finally, my money's on a Labour hold in Camberley. I'm sure the local party will have been all-out canvassing their only ward, and Heather will pick up the Lib Dem votes too.

So: Green, Ukip, Labour.

Theuniondivvie

A bit over effusive for my taste, but I know the numerous PB Eckophiles will lap it up.

'Salmond 'politician of the year'

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has been named politician of the year by men's magazine GQ...
...Burly, charismatic and terrific company, the 59-year-old has taken a hopeless constitutional case and turned it into an electrifying argument about modern Scotland and its 21st-century future.
He has made an art form of the underdog's plight, consistently outshining the "Better Together" pro-Union campaign, turning what was thought to be a fait accompli into a proper punch-up fought according to "Motherwell rules
Win or lose, Salmond has energised his country and bolstered its collective self-confidence.
Even if his country votes against independence - which, as we went to press, was looking likely - the Tartan Pimpernel has been a bright flash of colour on the grey highway of political life: living proof that politics, at its best, is still about brains, wit and courage.'

http://tinyurl.com/pxaec58

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 6s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

The Carswell defection effect is now clear, UKIP are up to a 14-16% range.
Am I the only one to notice the LD's are getting gradually lower in yougov?

HanDodges

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 6s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

Labour need to be around 20 points ahead. Terrible poll for Ed.

kle4

initforthemoney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah, we put principle before partisan advantage (and weren't ready for Nick Clegg's perfidy over boundary changes)

The only principle apparent was a desire to beg the question as much as possible. Most arguments boiled down to AV being contemptible because it sometimes gives diffierent results from FPTP.

As I recall from the leaflets distributed in my area, such arguments were rather less prominent than the picture of a smiling Nick Clegg on the front.

Speedy said:

MikeSmithson said:

@TSE "The omen for 2015" about the AV result is that the dim-witted Tories face an election under a electoral system which gives all the benefits to Labour. This was blindingly obvious at the time yet the blue team pressed ahead with a campaign that was totally against the party's interests.

Interesting that a key player for NO in that referendum was Dan Hodges..

The Tories were against because they campaigned against the coalition and the idea of coalitions.
They won because the public was also against coalitions ironically after the bitter experience of this government.

That seems rather unlikely to me - the Coalition had been in power for barely a year by that point, not really enough for people to get that many bitter experiences from it. Many disliked it on principle and early signs, sure, but not enough to explain the scale of the No victory or be a primary reason for it I think.

Ninoinoz

It appears that Jimmy Savile, Rotherham and Oxford(shire) are all linked by the professional classes not giving two hoots about children who are from broken families and a ward of the State.

The exact same people who despise the family and view the State as being able to do no wrong.

anothernick

Casino_Royale said:

I find it amazing that a city such as Oxford doesn't have a *single* Conservative councillor. Even more so that it hasn't for over 10 years.

You'd have thought there'd at least be one or two professional/middle class pockets in a city of that size in south-east England.

Probably down to lack of members on the ground. The London Borough I live in has only one Tory ward despite the average house price above £500k and climbing. There is just no Tory activity and I guess the local party consists of a small group of pensioners who yearn to turn the clock back to 1955 - you don't win Council seats without an activist base.

another_richard

Smarmeron said:

@another_richard

How old are the plants that are getting blown up?

Built in the 1970s and 1980s.

The last coal and nuclear power stations were built when Thatcher was prime minister.

Still as long as we don't upset nice Mr Putin and the middle east doesn't fall under the control of people who want to destroy us and the wind blows nice and steady then we'll have secure electricity production.

Flightpath

Casino_Royale said:

I find it amazing that a city such as Oxford doesn't have a *single* Conservative councillor. Even more so that it hasn't for over 10 years.

You'd have thought there'd at least be one or two professional/middle class pockets in a city of that size in south-east England.

What sort of City do you think Oxford is?

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

Highest UKIP YouGov for a while?

They polled 16% last week with YouGov

Tykejohnno

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 6s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

The Carswell defection effect is now clear, UKIP are up to a 14-16% range.
Am I the only one to notice the LD's are getting gradually lower in yougov?

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep ·
Another 16% for UKIP on Sun/YouGov tonight. You thought you had seen "peak UKIP" in May? Truth is we are just getting started