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Labour’s poll leads continue – politicalbetting.com
Labour’s poll leads continue – politicalbetting.com
Rather than highlight a single poll from a single pollster I like to look at them in context which is why I have reproduced above the latest polling table from Wikipedia.
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Don’t ask how I managed it, just back from Moonfall - which is utterly stupid but rather good fun
The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support
https://twitter.com/robstaton/status/1491165680800251905?t=2GCw9u42I40aw-JhLdsdKg&s=19
People know energy prices are going up but many have forgotten that NI is going up and Tesco warned that food prices are going up 5% in April.
For most people the pain hasn’t really begun yet
That is the unanswered question.
Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
What can I say? If by using the powers invested in your magic phallus, or do you refer to it as your flying penis, you managed to get me unbanned, I have to say thank you very much. 🍆
On a wet day at college we planned to go out but couldn’t we watched Satyricon together, it’s a film by Fellini, not all the Satyricon has survived so film is based on the fragment that does. A pretty weird film. Hard to follow as I remember. I havn’t heard it spoken of in a long time. I don’t recall what you described being a scene, though there is a scene where the two boys and a slave girl are “messing about” in the baths together.
I’m 100% convinced though Ange was wearing a winged skull. But it’s good to know all sorts of other options are available. Especially with Valentines and Mothers Day fast approaching.
The last poll to have the Tories ahead was the 2% lead in Redfield & Wilton, 6th December.
So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.
Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
"The most hateful word in Ukraine now is "progress" pronounced with German or French accent," — @VPrystaiko told at @BBCRadio4
https://twitter.com/UkrEmbLondon/status/1491174817563029505
I know it is written by a former junior obstetrician, but if any of the doctors from most junior to senior in my depth acted like that, I would have them suspended by the end of the day. I know it is exagerrated for comic and dramatic effect, but it really was shocking.
I try not to watch medical dramas but broke my habit tonight.
Some years ago, a consultant told me that she and her husband used to watch House compulsively. Until one day she was on the verge of suggesting that the symptoms of a patient.... could be Lupus. Then, she said, it was as if an illusion broke or something. She couldn't watch it anymore.
As with covid, so with the recovery, we will see dramatic shifts in people's behaviour as they are forced by circumstances to adapt to the change which may include a near certain recession
I notice Ofgem are going to permit smart meters to provide half hourly updates with surge pricing allowing energy prices to change upto 48 times a day, yes a day. This will also provide an opportunity for consumers to reduce energy at high consumption times and benefit from lower off peak tariffs on a day to day basis
I have given up on Boris and the conservative party in their present form, and am completely apolitical on party politics and will only rejoin the conservative party when they have come to their senses and Boris is gone
That Boris still doesn't 'get this', despite the spin line that Boris 'gets it', is apparent from the Gloria Gaynor imitation.
And kept on applying the solutions that lead to war.
I get the symbolism of it, but really was an unnecessarily wide table. If the acoustics weren't great theyd probably end up yelling.
https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ
Thx
*I was told, once, by a professional diplomatic level interpreter that leaders trying their language skills out in international negotiations was something that diplomats hated.
It was Boris being seen to have not complied with covid rules
'Strictly' does not enter into it, it was blatant and he lied about it
However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.
McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
Good for him.
I plug my car in most evenings. But it doesn't matter when in the night it does the charging. It also probably doesn't matter 99 times out of a 100 if it doesn't go all the way back to 85%. The ability to get cheap electricity in return for not being completely sure it would be all the way charged up would be well worth it.
And if I absolutely need 100% by morning, I could override it and pay extra.
I leave you with this.
What the graphic above actually shows is Tories beginning a steady downward in July, Labour starting steady upward in May, that is almost like a straight line. To say it all began in November with lockdown parties might not be the whole story.
To say it’s nothing to do with policy? , Tory polling might not have been helped by the cutting of £20 uplift, the announcement of tax rises. To say it’s just Boris mask slipping, nothing to do with unpopular policy might not be true.
Thirdly, although Labour would not be an obvious beneficiary, the two and a half billion migrants crossing the channel in last couple of years might not be popular amongst a group of Tory/UKIP voters swallowed by Boris for his 80 seat majority. It’s anecdotal for sure, but my mum was raging about this long before Boris troubles began. My theory is, losing these voters to don’t know column, or sit on their hands in actual elections could account for some of what we are now seeing in double digit Tory deficits.
They will be getting the good deals in restaurants etc.
German motorways have no speed limits but prosecutors are investigating to see if if was so dangerous as to be illegal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60301705
Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
Belated those his words are, it'd be nice to think that at least some of those who may have spent considerable time and creativity seeking to convince themselves that what they saw happen did not happen, will re-consider their stance.
It'd be nice to think that, at least for a moment.
To win an election you need swing voters and your core vote, only winning one of the 2 is not enough
In 2019 May went shortly after the dire local election results for her party that year
Also factor in that multiple factors must be factored into political-electoral equations through to First Tuesday after First Monday next November.
For example, some of candidates MMcC may be trying to assist may well give him a rhetorical kicking at some point . . .
That PLUS movements of swing voters are key factors shaping voting behavior & outcomes.
As for "Trumpites" that's NOT black & white but rather a continuum . . . that's fraying at both ends . . .
https://nerdlegame.com
NOM 1.96
Con Maj 3.4
Lab Maj 5
Con Maj still drifting.
Lab Maj too short.
Next Con leader
Sunak 2.92
Truss 7.6
Tugendhat 9.6
Hunt 9.8
Mordaunt 14
Javid 21
Gove 24
Wallace 29
Zahawi 34
Patel 42
Baker 46
Raab 46
- Exclusive: The prime minister was distracted for hours by allegations in Lord Ashcroft’s book, sources say
Boris Johnson spent hours in a state of fury in No 10 after claims about his wife were published in the serialisation of an unauthorised biography by a Tory peer – even threatening to take legal action, according to Downing Street insiders.
The prime minister claimed the book by Lord Ashcroft, which has been serialised in the Mail, was defamatory and told one worker he was getting advice from lawyers, The Independent understands.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-carrie-first-lady-b2010170.html
All the PM would be doing by trying to sue a man with such deep pockets, is both bankrupt himself and have weeks of reporting about the court case repeating all the allegations.
In such a high profile role, you have to accept that people will say nasty things about you.
Sunak has a small window of opportunity, he’s about to go from being seen as the nice man handing out piles of money, to the nasty man putting up taxes as inflation hits.
I've been looking back at key periods of similar polling and there has never been a Governing party that has recovered from such a paradigm shift. The closest comparison is Black Wednesday but there are others too.
1975-1979 saw a similar shift. The Winter of Discontent did for Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1979_United_Kingdom_general_election#1977
1987 - 1992 saw the tories sliding in the polls, especially with the hated poll tax, until they ditched Margaret Thatcher when under John Major they returned to level pegging:
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
1992-1997 saw a similar shift. Black Wednesday did for the tories. When Tony Blair was elected Labour leader two years later they got a further lift, but the damage had already been done and was similar to now:
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
Conservatives have occupied No.10 Downing St since 2010. By the time of the next General Election in 2024 they will have held the keys for 14 years.
I am convinced they will be out of power. Whether a change of leader would be enough to save their bacon they don't seem prepared to test. The danger for them, the real danger, is the ongoing catastrophe of the Johnson premiership will see the tories destroyed for a generation. The unpleasantness surrounding the Savile slur is a sign of what we should expect over the remaining two tawdry years.
This lack of a co-ordinated team in No.10, is why the government is lurching from crisis to crisis. There’s no-one there willing to tell the PM what’s really going on and how to react to it.
Has it? Or is she just an easy way of getting at the PM?
The whole Populist Brexiteer government have been shown to be corrupt shysters, and the very antithesis of taking back control.
But Carrie is something else and much of that goes back to Johnson. He is clearly under her thrall. I suspect that's in part because she has a lot on him but he may also be genuinely mesmerised by her.
She is clearly a very capable, brilliant, operator who like her partner sails close to the wind. She has a small inner circle of trusted friends who appear to enjoy her company in Downing St, and she likes her parties. She shares with Johnson a propensity to blow money.
The real trouble for the tories is deeper: it's her politics. She is green and pretty left of centre. Therefore it's easy to see those of Johnson's (frankly un-Conservative) policies as owing to her influence. The fact that he has no epistemological coherence only compounds the bewilderment throughout the Party. As someone mentioned below, some of the tory poll slide began before Paterson. The right of the party are deeply unhappy. The Mail, for instance, are on a 'Spike the Hike' mission (see today's front cover): they are furious at a Conservative Party being the highest spending, highest taxing party in a lifetime.
Boris Johnson just isn't a Conservative and it's easy to blame Carrie. But it's him too: it's not only a moral compass he lacks. He has no political one.
Matthew Symonds might throw a few quid at it.
This is *not* the kind of country we want to be.
The prospect of adopting this approach poses yet more serious questions for my Conservative MP colleagues and I to consider in the weeks and months ahead. https://twitter.com/Mark_J_Harper/status/1491124629184065542
https://twitter.com/sophiasleigh/status/1491092648371044352
The Guardian were taking the piss even before the last election: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/13/secret-diary-of-carrie-symonds-boris-johnson-dominc-cummings
He’s not as short as he was a couple of weeks ago.