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Labour’s poll leads continue – politicalbetting.com

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  • Give up now. US English has won. It’s all downhill from here. Save your blood pressure and stop caring. I gave up “correcting” English about 15 years ago. I feel comfortable with my decision.
    The irony is Britain (and America) used to use both the British and American spellings interchangeably - the Americans standardised on the simpler versions, the British (often for no good reason) on the more complicated ones. Even if American hegemony hadn’t driven the consolidation of global English, in the end their greater simplicity would have won out. As that “harmless drudge” observed someone trying to control language might as well try to “bind the sea in chains”.
  • Nigelb said:

    I don't know the detail, but here's a very large installed base of (for example) remote alarm signalling* that still uses the old tech. Otherwise it would probably have been turned off.

    (* which only recently replaced dedicated telephone lines.)
    The turn off seems to be a mess, with some telecos saying in next year or so and others talking about the mandated target of 2033.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,966

    Give up now. US English has won. It’s all downhill from here. Save your blood pressure and stop caring. I gave up “correcting” English about 15 years ago. I feel comfortable with my decision.
    Not necessarily. We just need a few more exports popular with US kids, like Peppa Pig.
  • Saves you the hassle of submitting regular readings?
    Is submitting a reading once a quarter really such a hassle? Or working off estimated readings sometimes?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The irony is Britain (and America) used to use both the British and American spellings interchangeably - the Americans standardised on the simpler versions, the British (often for no good reason) on the more complicated ones. Even if American hegemony hadn’t driven the consolidation of global English, in the end their greater simplicity would have won out. As that “harmless drudge” observed someone trying to control language might as well try to “bind the sea in chains”.
    Plus, we are wrong about aluminium, the legit choices were always aluminum or alumium.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    edited February 2022
    Taz said:

    Ah, edgy Marina Hyde, as beloved by centrist Dads up and down the nation and her army of twitter fluffers. Environmentally friendly recycling the same schtick.

    It will be Susie Dent and word of the Day next.
    Ooh, 'centrist Dads'.

    Edgy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    Is submitting a reading once a quarter really such a hassle? Or working off estimated readings sometimes?
    My supplier demands them once a month.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,158
    TOPPING said:

    Interesting Sadiq Khan interview on Today today. Has put Dick "on notice" but approved her appointment while knowing many of the more egregious activities of the polis.

    Also, as Mishal Hussein pointed out there are 150 Met Police offrs with criminal convictions and they are allowed to stay but those who show misogyny, racism, sexism, etc should be kicked out.

    Wait for some bright-eyed journo to point out that Khan thinks it's ok for those with assault convictions to remain in the police force but someone who misgenders a suspect must be sacked.

    I confess to being totally gobsmacked that any convicted criminal can be a serving police officer - I assumed that was an absolute no-no.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    For Switzerland?

    “Nose and Face” spring to mind.
    UK and Switzerland should set up their own science research agreement. Plenty there for both sides.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,158

    EU block on UK and Swiss membership of £80bn Horizon Europe, the flagship science research is a "tragedy" for science, says Nobel prize winner Didier Queloz. Plus Lord Kinnoul - it is an "act of mutual self harm". Blocked linked to Northern Ireland talks

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1491165602240958465?s=21

    "... linked to Northern Ireland talks"?

    Bit tough on the Swiss.
  • For Switzerland?

    “Nose and Face” spring to mind.
    This is why Brexit will never be over. The winning side hate it. And it will *always* be someone else’s fault.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    I confess to being totally gobsmacked that any convicted criminal can be a serving police officer - I assumed that was an absolute no-no.
    Khan told Hussain that they must be given a chance for a new start, rehabilitation, etc, etc,

    Not arguments put forward for David Goodwillie at Raith Rovers, that said.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    Is submitting a reading once a quarter really such a hassle? Or working off estimated readings sometimes?
    We've a smart meter for electricity, at which, quite frankly, Mrs C never, and only I rarely look. It's supposed to tell me how close we are to 'budget' in various aspects of use....., money, kilowatt hours and so on, but appears to change capriciously.

    We're promised/threatened with one for gas, but at time of writing I'm still sending in the numbers every quarter.
  • This is the most libellous thing I have ever read, and it is from The Times, I hope Eddie Jones has good lawyers.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-eddie-jones-is-turning-into-rugbys-dominic-cummings-w698slkm7
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited February 2022

    I’d be amazed if Starmer has not got his PR plan ready to go. He’s just got to time it right.
    PR splits the Labour Party.

    Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.

    Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
  • Sandpit said:

    UK and Switzerland should set up their own science research agreement. Plenty there for both sides.
    The UK and Switzerland are the powerhouses of science in Europe.

    The EU trying to cut off science from the UK and Switzerland is as futile as France trying to cut off America from geopolitical influence. It ain't going to happen.

    That sad referendum losers who haven't accepted defeat yet want to look at a counterproductive temper tantrum and think that shows Brexit was a bad idea is nothing but amusing.
  • Sandpit said:

    UK and Switzerland should set up their own science research agreement. Plenty there for both sides.
    Unfortunately, the Swiss have seen how the UK behaves after international treaties have been agreed and signed. Only a mug would trust perfidious Albion.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951
    This is telling. Even if Armitage is a billionaire, he explains why so many rank-and-file Tory members, who are more detached from the minutia of the politicking than the MPs, want Boris gone. They join, basically, out of a sense of patriotism. Not to help any particular politician get up the greasy pole. The MPs need to step back, look objectively at where we are, and do the necessary.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/09/billionaire-tory-donor-john-armitage-calls-for-boris-johnson-to-resign

    Armitage told the BBC global challenges to the west required ‘‘very serious, engaged politicians with a sense of purpose”.

    “Politicians should go into politics to do good for their country,” he added.

    “That is the overwhelming reason to be in politics. I don’t think it’s about your own personal sense of getting to the top of a snakes-and-ladders game.”
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    UK and Switzerland should set up their own science research agreement. Plenty there for both sides.
    All so unnecessary and pointless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    How is Labour going to pass English domestic legislation?
    If Labour win most seats then they will have no problem passing English legislation. Only if the Tories win most seats would Labour need SNP support to pass English only legislation
  • HYUFD said:

    PR splits the Labour Party.

    Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.

    Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
    Not sure all the unions are against PR.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    PR splits the Labour Party.

    Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.

    Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
    What’s not to like?? If your name’s Keir Starmer!

    Corbynites fuck off. Check.

    Sane unions stay, mad unions go. Check.

    SNP halved. Check.

    Centrist government in perpetuity. Check.

    Far right screwed. Check.

    He’d be a mug not to.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    This is telling. Even if Armitage is a billionaire, he explains why so many rank-and-file Tory members, who are more detached from the minutia of the politicking than the MPs, want Boris gone. They join, basically, out of a sense of patriotism. Not to help any particular politician get up the greasy pole. The MPs need to step back, look objectively at where we are, and do the necessary.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/09/billionaire-tory-donor-john-armitage-calls-for-boris-johnson-to-resign

    Armitage told the BBC global challenges to the west required ‘‘very serious, engaged politicians with a sense of purpose”.

    “Politicians should go into politics to do good for their country,” he added.

    “That is the overwhelming reason to be in politics. I don’t think it’s about your own personal sense of getting to the top of a snakes-and-ladders game.”

    Yep.
    And Mr Armitage almost expressed disbelief about how No 10 had been trying to manage their way out of the current crisis by changing Mr Johnson's top team.
    "What about a sense of personal responsibility? 'You know, I'm going to change my chief of staff and it will all be fine.' Oh really ?..."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    NEW THREAD
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    This is the most libellous thing I have ever read, and it is from The Times, I hope Eddie Jones has good lawyers.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-eddie-jones-is-turning-into-rugbys-dominic-cummings-w698slkm7

    Could have been worse.

    If he'd said he had the numerological skills of Robert Peston.... The Bank of England would have to print more money. There isn't enough in existence for the damages due for that one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    All so unnecessary and pointless.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60308494
    "...the only detectable impact so far is increased costs, paperwork and border delays..."
  • NEWS | Britain is to supply anti-ship weaponry to Ukraine to counter the Russian Navy in the Black and Azov Seas, Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Vadim Prystaiko has said…..

    …. "For the first time, our Armed Forces, in particular the Navy, will receive real weapons, missiles, which will finally allow us to oppose something to the Russians in the Black and Azov Seas", said Vadym Prystaiko in an interview with Radio Novoye Vremya.


    https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1491336415367798785?s=21
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited February 2022

    This is telling. Even if Armitage is a billionaire, he explains why so many rank-and-file Tory members, who are more detached from the minutia of the politicking than the MPs, want Boris gone. They join, basically, out of a sense of patriotism. Not to help any particular politician get up the greasy pole. The MPs need to step back, look objectively at where we are, and do the necessary.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/09/billionaire-tory-donor-john-armitage-calls-for-boris-johnson-to-resign

    Armitage told the BBC global challenges to the west required ‘‘very serious, engaged politicians with a sense of purpose”.

    “Politicians should go into politics to do good for their country,” he added.

    “That is the overwhelming reason to be in politics. I don’t think it’s about your own personal sense of getting to the top of a snakes-and-ladders game.”

    I agree with this, although I also note he's given money to Labour more recently, too.

    What seems to have over the last few weeks is that the short-term ambitions of both the Prime Minister and the group of loyalists who most depend on him for their careers, has begun to become fundamentally unmoored from the views and wishes of most of the public, including many Tory voters.

    If the Tories don't realise that that's what's happening , they'll a pay a much heavier price at some point eventually, I think.
  • Coincidentally I've got a replacement washer/dryer being delivered tomorrow after my old one broke beyond economic repair. It's Bluetooth compatible and has an app and all sorts of other garbage that quite frankly I don't see the point in since when I wash my clothes I turn it on immediately when I load it. You can set on the app apparently a time you want it finished by.

    But I imagine this sort of stuff, done right with the proper APIs linking together could combine. Load the machine, say you want it dry by 7am tomorrow, then leave it alone and let the machine talk to the smart meter to automatically figure out when is the optimal time to run.

    Other energy intensive machines are also becoming internet compatible too. Eg Fridge/Freezers. A fridge/freezer isn't actually running 24/7 it only has to run intermittently to keep the temperature cold (if it ran all the time everything would be far, far too cold). So I expect in the future, with the proper APIs these too will aim to demand energy when it's cheapest.

    Everything comes down to getting the APIs right. People aren't programmable, machines done right certainly can be.
    Great for the future but right now we are stuck with smart meters with no api's and domestic appliances likewise. For most people, smart meters are an irrelevance because very little of their electricity use is optional, except for those charging electric cars. My own smart meter says I am over-budget almost all of the time but I can't do much about the fridge or hot water or heating in winter. For most people it will be the same. All smart meters have done is throw some meter readers out of work.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,051

    I am getting more uncomfortable about the s*t being thrown at Carrie. She's an easy target and it's getting fairly nasty.

    I think there are two different strings to the Carrie attacks.

    When it’s using tropes such as attributing her power over Boris to wily women’s sexual allure, withholding sex, henpecking etc then probably into the misogynistic zone.

    But….. just because she is a woman it does not shield her from being attacked where there is justification or realism about the situation.

    She’s not the usual PM’s spouse - she was a political animal before marrying him with party roles. She has clearly known political views and priorities and a back story.

    When the press or public sees a PM without any fixed ideology twisting and turning on politics where people who know him are “surprised” that he’s following that route then it’s only understandable that people look at the person who spends most time with him and has most influence over him for a source of these views - a person who was already very politically active.

    I don’t care if it’s Boris and Carrie or Carl and Borisina (yeah I know) - the partner of a PM has a special potential for influence behind the scenes and so it’s natural that when things are a mess they look at all the contributors to that mess and so either Carrie is a rubbish support if she has major influence as her ideas are clearly bollocks or she has an agenda that is feeding into a useless PM to make him worse.

    I actually think if Boris said publicly “she’s a very valuable sounding board and I value her opinion” then it would be better than trying to have it both ways where you cannot criticise someone who is clearly influential on the grounds of “she’s a woman” or “she’s his wife and not an MP/public figure”.

    It’s also up to them as a couple - if they had any moral integrity (hahahahaha) then they would make a decision to either not talk shop at home or accept that if she wants to advise and he wants to listen then they have to accept the flack.

    So overall I don’t think it’s generally misogyny to attack her (maybe some of the ways she is attacked) and I would be very wary of any PM’s partner male or female if they were politically active prior.

    If there is a PM Sunak and policies that enhance her interests are stupidly followed then I would expect people to attack that too and it’s not because of misogyny.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    I've got no problem with Carrie being PM. She can't be worse than what we've got. It would be nice if she could do it without the dressing up in other peoples uniforms every time she sees a camera but I wouldn't make that a condition.
  • NEW THREAD

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    Are you sure. My reading of the DCC business documents is that if you live in Central or Southern areas there could be an issue even with 2nd gen. They will need a new comms unit installing.

    I am looking into all this in a bit of detail in spare time at moment, because I am sick of the repeated voice mails telling me to get one: starting to think I better look into this and decide.
    The joke that moving to the latest insulation standards makes your house a TEMPEST rated* Faraday cage vs the Smart meters trying to use mobile networks is still a good one. The fact that some of the existing meters now need updating because the networks are changing just adds to the fun.

    Between metallic coatings on glass, and foil layers in the insulation - my relative who runs a building business has to run his clients through what will happen. And they are still surprised.

    On the upside, the neighbours with WiFi boosters can't screw up your WiFi. On the downside, you need WiFi zones throughout the house, which n turn means fitting wired ethernet in the way that you run power. Every room needs it.**

    And if you want to use the mobile - either your phone/network can handle calling over WiFi nicely, or you are looking at pico-cells.

    *Yes, I know.
    **On a general point - if you redoing your house/flat, fit wired ethernet throughout. The extra cost is very small compared to nearly any building works. Hard wired ethernet is faster & better in just about every way.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    I realise that the thread header has long since been discussed to death, but there is one thing that I thought was worth noting, comparing "the journey to 1997" to "now", using the graphs.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg/2000px-Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg.png

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election.png

    In 1992 there is an initial precipitous decline in Tory fortunes matching Labour's gains, while the LDs remain depressed. Labour then flatlines for a few months, before the LDs start to pick up dramatically, eroding the Tory vote further (and the effective Labour lead in the process, despite them not making much relative progress.)

    Then, there is a long slow LD decline up to the 1997 election, as Labour erode their vote (alongside a slight, famous, "swing back" to the Tories over the same period).

    The story is quite different in 2021. From the local minimum in the Spring, the Labour vote share has been steadily increasing, while the Tories steadily decline. LD votes are already depressed at the ~10% level; the eye of statistical faith can see a slight increase (and, in fact, the statistically significant wiggles in the LD line seem to correspond to upticks and downticks in Conservative support, rather than Labour).

    The question is - when does the Labour upward trend end, and which voters are they tapping for it? Mid 40s is seen as something of a natural barrier for Labour. But if the Tory floor *is* still ~27-28%, with the LDs at 10% that still leaves ~7% for Labour to tap.

    Of course, the pool of voters is somewhat different to that of 30 years ago, but the trends don't seem that dissimilar.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    All so unnecessary and pointless.
    Indeed, but the EU seem to enjoy the pettiness of it all, even when they are excluding two of the largest research communities in the world.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,966
    HYUFD said:

    PR splits the Labour Party.

    Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.

    Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
    BWITD
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    ydoethur said:

    My supplier demands them once a month.
    If they're billing monthly, sending readings monthly is sensible. It's also a good idea to send readings monthly (whether asked for or not) for a while after moving house as the estimated bills that will be produced otherwise will be based on the previous occupier's usage, which could be significantly different from yours.
This discussion has been closed.