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Labour’s poll leads continue – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited February 2022 in General
imageLabour’s poll leads continue – politicalbetting.com

Rather than highlight a single poll from a single pollster I like to look at them in context which is why I have reproduced above the latest polling table from Wikipedia.

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited February 2022
    First again

    Don’t ask how I managed it, just back from Moonfall - which is utterly stupid but rather good fun
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Looking forward to 3 March by election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Just seen Seth Lakeman. Some chap talking about his new thriller in front of me..
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Looking forward to 3 March by election

    Is there any betting interest other than futzing around with vote share?
    Wouldn't think so. But at least it's contested.
  • HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IshmaelZ said:

    Looking forward to 3 March by election

    Easy Labour hold, nothing dramatic
  • HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    It will be very very tight by the time the election happens. My prediction. For what it is worth.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    Is it possible to submit a thread header?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Good thing West Ham weren't playing. Cat on the pitch at Hillsborough:

    https://twitter.com/robstaton/status/1491165680800251905?t=2GCw9u42I40aw-JhLdsdKg&s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: Laptops. @RochdalePioneers

    Always choose from the laptops that offer Windows Pro as an option, they’re generally the business range, a little more expensive but more stable in configuration for central management and with 3-year hardware warranty. I usually go for Dell XPS range, or Lenovo.

    Left-field option is the Microsoft Surface tablet, which is surprisingly good at the higher specs, if you are mostly in office or home locations with proper screens and keyboards for the big spreadsheets. I use these for senior management, the battery really does last all day and it can also drive a 34” 4k screen.

    Most laptops are not really upgradeable any more, so get at least 16GB RAM and i7 processor.

    As mentioned earlier, definitely W10 over W11.

    Hint: create two user accounts when you set it up yourself, before giving it to corporate IT, and make them both administrators but without names like ‘admin’. You will find these useful once you have a domain account that needs permission to install anything.

    Out of curiosity what is the difference between a "business range" laptop preinstalled with Pro and a consumer range one preinstalled with Home when they are the same hardware?

    I can find quite a few examples on both Dell and Acer stores where the business model is the same hardware - chassis, screen, processor, memory. Admittedly many more of the Dell business machines have the same matt Full HD screens that @Beibheirli_C loves and I hate... :)
    There was a very interesting study done years (decades!!) back where various factors were being looked at for human/computer interaction. An unexpected result was that matt, grey keyboards caused less headaches than glossy, black keyboards. Luckily the keyboards were detachable and so as part of the study they swapped them around. The headaches always followed the black shiny keyboards and it was eventually determined to be reflections from overhead lights making users squint when they looked down at the keys.

    This is why all keyboards went matt grey in the early 80s and all screens had a matt layer to reduce reflections.

    The contrast enhancement of the glossy screen is not worth the headaches it causes.
    I love this debate! I don;t have problems with a glossy screen, but have used too many business laptops with a godawful low brightness low resolution screen. OK if I was going to be staring a laptop screen all day it may be an issue, but thats what docking to a screen is for. And screens are all gloss!

    The "business" spec thing is bemusing me. Yes of course some manufactures have a dedicated business only series - HP Probook as an example. But I can find several where the "business" one is the same model as the consumer one - series name, chassis, processor, memory etc etc. But the fastest processor options are consumer, with a slower one for business. Or buy the exact same machine but one is business...
    Processor names - especially the Intel iCore series can be very misleading. Also a "Slower" i7 can be faster than a "quicker" i5 because of hyperthreading and pipelining issues.

    Unless you are high-end gaming or video editing do not worry too much about the processor. Any modern processor will provide more power than you need even allowing for the retarding effect of Windoze
    The business spec thing is about hardware build quality, not processor specs. Look at the discussion of Macbooks in this thread. On the Windows business laptop side you can say the same about Thinkpads. Mine is more than 10 years old.
    Appreciate the comments! I take your point about i5 vs i7 - a stack of memory is as important as Windows a memory monster these days.

    Build quality I take seriously - need a metal chassis and hinges that aren't going to fall apart. I think some of my confusion on business vs premium consumer is that they're offering "ultrabook" type products to both. The days of business machines being hefty and the consumer ones flimsy plastic are largely gone.

    I take the point about old Macbooks and Thinkpads! Though with both I'd be worried about software-enforced obsolescence - and having to carry a brick-sized Thinkbook around...
    "a stack of memory is as important as Windows a memory monster these days."

    One of the things I *hate* about modern programs is the way many are so damned memory intensive. I know there is a heck of a lot of code reuse and modular gubbins, but from looking at GitHub and elsewhere, so many people seem to now know anything about memory-efficient programming. Though I mainly look at C/C++.

    I know we're not in the days when 1MB is all we have (and yes, 32KB and lower), but it does feel as though people just want to throw memory at their programs. People are more interested in optimising for speed rather than memory, which is fine until your program is running with several others that have the same idea...
    When I started programming on ICL 1903s in 1981 the maximum module size was 16k. Half the time amending a module was spent finding clever ways to keep it under the limit to avoid the ball-ache of having to split it into two or more modules
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    It will be very very tight by the time the election happens. My prediction. For what it is worth.
    Hard to know. Parties and punters like to talk up what a knifedge it is, yet afterwards it all seems bloody obvious.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    It will be very very tight by the time the election happens. My prediction. For what it is worth.
    The pain for the Tory party hasn’t even begun yet.

    People know energy prices are going up but many have forgotten that NI is going up and Tesco warned that food prices are going up 5% in April.

    For most people the pain hasn’t really begun yet
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    They will indeed. However. Given the economic fundamentals, how long will it last?
    That is the unanswered question.
  • Times reporting that Johnson plans big summer reshuffle for the run-in to next GE.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    So did Brown and May, for a time.

    Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    They will indeed. However. Given the economic fundamentals, how long will it last?
    That is the unanswered question.
    Not just that. The NHS waiting list projections are brutal. Peaking in numbers April 2024, and with a target of no one waiting more than a year at that point.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    If I were Starmer I'd say something like..

    "Obviously it was extremely low politics from the Prime Minister to bring this issue up to deflect from his own potential problems with the law, but his statement in the Commons wasn't entirely without fact.

    I clearly didn't spend 'most of my time' as Director of Public Prosecutions 'failing to prosecute Savile', but an opportunity to prosecute him was missed under my watch. When I realised this I commissioned an inquiry into how that opportunity had been missed and on seeing its conclusions I apologised.

    I don't make political apologies. I apologised because I was responsible for it. I sincerely regret not having had the foresight to earlier implement the changes I later made to the CPS that might have resulted in his prosecution. I am still so sorry to the poor victims who missed the chance to see their evil abuser see justice."

    Ange can don her winged fascinum ( @MoonRabbit did you see my post about this - I think it led to you being unsinbinned!) and loudly attack Boris for all his lies and sackings and Guppy and numerous other discretions.

    And leave Keir being dignified and PM-like.

    no I hadn’t seen it, sorry, but have now, by searching through your comments using fascinum. I must have popped out for some fresh lemons on the 1st when you posted it.

    What can I say? If by using the powers invested in your magic phallus, or do you refer to it as your flying penis, you managed to get me unbanned, I have to say thank you very much. 🍆

    On a wet day at college we planned to go out but couldn’t we watched Satyricon together, it’s a film by Fellini, not all the Satyricon has survived so film is based on the fragment that does. A pretty weird film. Hard to follow as I remember. I havn’t heard it spoken of in a long time. I don’t recall what you described being a scene, though there is a scene where the two boys and a slave girl are “messing about” in the baths together.

    I’m 100% convinced though Ange was wearing a winged skull. But it’s good to know all sorts of other options are available. Especially with Valentines and Mothers Day fast approaching.
  • Labour have been in the lead for two months and two days.

    The last poll to have the Tories ahead was the 2% lead in Redfield & Wilton, 6th December.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Tweeted by the Ukrainian Embassy in London:

    "The most hateful word in Ukraine now is "progress" pronounced with German or French accent," — @VPrystaiko told at @BBCRadio4

    https://twitter.com/UkrEmbLondon/status/1491174817563029505
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    I am coming over a bit @Cyclefree after watching "This is Going to Hurt".

    I know it is written by a former junior obstetrician, but if any of the doctors from most junior to senior in my depth acted like that, I would have them suspended by the end of the day. I know it is exagerrated for comic and dramatic effect, but it really was shocking.

    I try not to watch medical dramas but broke my habit tonight.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Foxy said:

    I am coming over a bit @Cyclefree after watching "This is Going to Hurt".

    I know it is written by a former junior obstetrician, but if any of the doctors from most junior to senior in my depth acted like that, I would have them suspended by the end of the day. I know it is exagerrated for comic and dramatic effect, but it really was shocking.

    I try not to watch medical dramas but broke my habit tonight.

    And anyone in IT can tell you about IT in drama.... etc etc

    Some years ago, a consultant told me that she and her husband used to watch House compulsively. Until one day she was on the verge of suggesting that the symptoms of a patient.... could be Lupus. Then, she said, it was as if an illusion broke or something. She couldn't watch it anymore.
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    It will be very very tight by the time the election happens. My prediction. For what it is worth.
    The pain for the Tory party hasn’t even begun yet.

    People know energy prices are going up but many have forgotten that NI is going up and Tesco warned that food prices are going up 5% in April.

    For most people the pain hasn’t really begun yet
    The economic pain, which incidentally with be felt in Europe as well, will see governments ratings plummet as the effects take hold

    As with covid, so with the recovery, we will see dramatic shifts in people's behaviour as they are forced by circumstances to adapt to the change which may include a near certain recession

    I notice Ofgem are going to permit smart meters to provide half hourly updates with surge pricing allowing energy prices to change upto 48 times a day, yes a day. This will also provide an opportunity for consumers to reduce energy at high consumption times and benefit from lower off peak tariffs on a day to day basis

    I have given up on Boris and the conservative party in their present form, and am completely apolitical on party politics and will only rejoin the conservative party when they have come to their senses and Boris is gone
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    They will indeed. However. Given the economic fundamentals, how long will it last?
    That is the unanswered question.
    Not just that. The NHS waiting list projections are brutal. Peaking in numbers April 2024, and with a target of no one waiting more than a year at that point.
    Which affects their core vote.
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    So did Brown and May, for a time.

    Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
    But it wasn't policies which caused the poll shift but the exposure of the self-serving, self-entitled immature behaviour firstly re Patterson and then Boris.

    That Boris still doesn't 'get this', despite the spin line that Boris 'gets it', is apparent from the Gloria Gaynor imitation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    I do rather like this -

    image


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    Herman Kahn pointed out that one of the problems of successful crisis solution was the tendency of some to claim that hadn't been a crisis. So people tended not to learn from the solutions that actually worked.

    And kept on applying the solutions that lead to war.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    You’ve got a bit of a newcastle 2009/10 vibe to you @dixiedean
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Just saw Will Smith got the best actor nomination, well deserved. King Richard was a rubbish film but he was very good in it, showing real acting range that we haven't seen since he did Ali. I think Benedict Cumberbatch is favourite but Will Smith has a better chance than people rate the issue he will have was the movie not being any good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    I do rather like this -

    image


    Good stuff.

    I get the symbolism of it, but really was an unnecessarily wide table. If the acoustics weren't great theyd probably end up yelling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    MaxPB said:

    Just saw Will Smith got the best actor nomination, well deserved. King Richard was a rubbish film but he was very good in it, showing real acting range that we haven't seen since he did Ali. I think Benedict Cumberbatch is favourite but Will Smith has a better chance than people rate the issue he will have was the movie not being any good.

    He's a great actor who probably deserves an award. He had a couple of oscar bait attempts which missed the mark, but they do love biographical films.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    So did Brown and May, for a time.

    Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
    But it wasn't policies which caused the poll shift but the exposure of the self-serving, self-entitled immature behaviour firstly re Patterson and then Boris.

    That Boris still doesn't 'get this', despite the spin line that Boris 'gets it', is apparent from the Gloria Gaynor imitation.
    Just had the thought that Boris thinks The Office is how offices actually work in real life and that's he the David Brent of Downing Street.
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    It will be very very tight by the time the election happens. My prediction. For what it is worth.
    The pain for the Tory party hasn’t even begun yet.

    People know energy prices are going up but many have forgotten that NI is going up and Tesco warned that food prices are going up 5% in April.

    For most people the pain hasn’t really begun yet
    The economic pain, which incidentally with be felt in Europe as well, will see governments ratings plummet as the effects take hold

    As with covid, so with the recovery, we will see dramatic shifts in people's behaviour as they are forced by circumstances to adapt to the change which may include a near certain recession

    I notice Ofgem are going to permit smart meters to provide half hourly updates with surge pricing allowing energy prices to change upto 48 times a day, yes a day. This will also provide an opportunity for consumers to reduce energy at high consumption times and benefit from lower off peak tariffs on a day to day basis

    I have given up on Boris and the conservative party in their present form, and am completely apolitical on party politics and will only rejoin the conservative party when they have come to their senses and Boris is gone
    Half hourly readings has been in the smart meter spec since for ever. It's needed to allow time of use tariffs. Then devices will avoid using power at peak prices which smooths out the demand peaks, which reduces the overall cost because supplying the peak is the most expensive . It's the only bit of the smart meter business case that actually makes sense.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just saw Will Smith got the best actor nomination, well deserved. King Richard was a rubbish film but he was very good in it, showing real acting range that we haven't seen since he did Ali. I think Benedict Cumberbatch is favourite but Will Smith has a better chance than people rate the issue he will have was the movie not being any good.

    He's a great actor who probably deserves an award. He had a couple of oscar bait attempts which missed the mark, but they do love biographical films.
    He seems to be getting even better with age.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    So did Brown and May, for a time.

    Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
    But it wasn't policies which caused the poll shift but the exposure of the self-serving, self-entitled immature behaviour firstly re Patterson and then Boris.

    That Boris still doesn't 'get this', despite the spin line that Boris 'gets it', is apparent from the Gloria Gaynor imitation.
    It was Boris being seen to have not strictly complied with the Covid rules he set that saw Labour take the lead and Sunak attended Boris' birthday party in lockdown anyway, albeit with a soft drink and Sunak also voted not to censure Patterson
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    I do rather like this -

    image


    ❤️ Chessur 👍🏻
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    Is it possible to submit a thread header?
    yes: email it to mike at the site url

    Thx
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    I do rather like this -

    image


    Good stuff.

    I get the symbolism of it, but really was an unnecessarily wide table. If the acoustics weren't great theyd probably end up yelling.
    Macron had to resort to megaphone diplomacy.

    image
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    So did Brown and May, for a time.

    Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
    But it wasn't policies which caused the poll shift but the exposure of the self-serving, self-entitled immature behaviour firstly re Patterson and then Boris.

    That Boris still doesn't 'get this', despite the spin line that Boris 'gets it', is apparent from the Gloria Gaynor imitation.
    It was Boris being seen to have not strictly complied with the Covid rules he set that saw Labour take the lead and Sunak attended Boris' birthday party in lockdown anyway, albeit with a soft drink and Sunak also voted not to censure Patterson
    That Spencer and Mogg haven't been sacked over the Patterson fiasco is another indicator that Boris does not 'get it'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    I do rather like this -

    image


    Good stuff.

    I get the symbolism of it, but really was an unnecessarily wide table. If the acoustics weren't great theyd probably end up yelling.
    Both men were undoubtedly communicating entirely via interpreters*. So not hearing each other, directly, might actually be an advantage.....

    *I was told, once, by a professional diplomatic level interpreter that leaders trying their language skills out in international negotiations was something that diplomats hated.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    On this issue, I have a lot more time for Macron than the Germans.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Aggregate demand is going to be in the toilet H2 this year
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It strikes me that Macron is seeking to use diplomacy to try to resolve what's going on in Russia/Ukraine without the need for bloodshed. Good luck to him - I prefer his approach to the sabre-rattling rhetoric favoured by others. Of course it may not work, but there's no harm in trying to avoid war/invasion. I also think he recognises the complexities of the issues involved, to which most only pay lip service. If some of Macron's behaviour is for domestic consumption, that's no different from our PM.

    (I now fully expect to be inundated with abuse for being a French-loving Russia-sympathising communist or something. Which I'm not.)

    I think Macron is probably trying to be realistic, someone has to play the role he is attempting. It does still look inherently silly as Putin's demands literally included turning back time with NATO, so its rife fir comedy, but it strikes me this has to be looked at in the round - Macron couldn't attempt what he is if others were not 'sabre rattling' as you put it. Putin would have no reason to talk if everyone was playing the Macron role.

    So I think the criticism of those taking a sterner position is misplaced, as it creates space for a more diplomatic position.

    Put it this way - if there is no invasion some idiot is going to claim the West made it all up and well done thise who kept calm. Which ignores that you don't gather that many troops unless you are at least prepared to contemplate using them. Non action would be in response to the diplomatic push back, and efforts to save face all round.
    I do rather like this -

    image


    Good stuff.

    I get the symbolism of it, but really was an unnecessarily wide table. If the acoustics weren't great theyd probably end up yelling.
    Both men were undoubtedly communicating entirely via interpreters*. So not hearing each other, directly, might actually be an advantage.....

    *I was told, once, by a professional diplomatic level interpreter that leaders trying their language skills out in international negotiations was something that diplomats hated.
    Putin is fluent in German and speaks very good English too I believe.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Balrog said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    It will be very very tight by the time the election happens. My prediction. For what it is worth.
    The pain for the Tory party hasn’t even begun yet.

    People know energy prices are going up but many have forgotten that NI is going up and Tesco warned that food prices are going up 5% in April.

    For most people the pain hasn’t really begun yet
    The economic pain, which incidentally with be felt in Europe as well, will see governments ratings plummet as the effects take hold

    As with covid, so with the recovery, we will see dramatic shifts in people's behaviour as they are forced by circumstances to adapt to the change which may include a near certain recession

    I notice Ofgem are going to permit smart meters to provide half hourly updates with surge pricing allowing energy prices to change upto 48 times a day, yes a day. This will also provide an opportunity for consumers to reduce energy at high consumption times and benefit from lower off peak tariffs on a day to day basis

    I have given up on Boris and the conservative party in their present form, and am completely apolitical on party politics and will only rejoin the conservative party when they have come to their senses and Boris is gone
    Half hourly readings has been in the smart meter spec since for ever. It's needed to allow time of use tariffs. Then devices will avoid using power at peak prices which smooths out the demand peaks, which reduces the overall cost because supplying the peak is the most expensive . It's the only bit of the smart meter business case that actually makes sense.
    For things like electric cars, it's particularly useful.

    I plug my car in most evenings. But it doesn't matter when in the night it does the charging. It also probably doesn't matter 99 times out of a 100 if it doesn't go all the way back to 85%. The ability to get cheap electricity in return for not being completely sure it would be all the way charged up would be well worth it.

    And if I absolutely need 100% by morning, I could override it and pay extra.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Good night....

    I leave you with this.

    image
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: Laptops. @RochdalePioneers

    Always choose from the laptops that offer Windows Pro as an option, they’re generally the business range, a little more expensive but more stable in configuration for central management and with 3-year hardware warranty. I usually go for Dell XPS range, or Lenovo.

    Left-field option is the Microsoft Surface tablet, which is surprisingly good at the higher specs, if you are mostly in office or home locations with proper screens and keyboards for the big spreadsheets. I use these for senior management, the battery really does last all day and it can also drive a 34” 4k screen.

    Most laptops are not really upgradeable any more, so get at least 16GB RAM and i7 processor.

    As mentioned earlier, definitely W10 over W11.

    Hint: create two user accounts when you set it up yourself, before giving it to corporate IT, and make them both administrators but without names like ‘admin’. You will find these useful once you have a domain account that needs permission to install anything.

    Out of curiosity what is the difference between a "business range" laptop preinstalled with Pro and a consumer range one preinstalled with Home when they are the same hardware?

    I can find quite a few examples on both Dell and Acer stores where the business model is the same hardware - chassis, screen, processor, memory. Admittedly many more of the Dell business machines have the same matt Full HD screens that @Beibheirli_C loves and I hate... :)
    There was a very interesting study done years (decades!!) back where various factors were being looked at for human/computer interaction. An unexpected result was that matt, grey keyboards caused less headaches than glossy, black keyboards. Luckily the keyboards were detachable and so as part of the study they swapped them around. The headaches always followed the black shiny keyboards and it was eventually determined to be reflections from overhead lights making users squint when they looked down at the keys.

    This is why all keyboards went matt grey in the early 80s and all screens had a matt layer to reduce reflections.

    The contrast enhancement of the glossy screen is not worth the headaches it causes.
    I love this debate! I don;t have problems with a glossy screen, but have used too many business laptops with a godawful low brightness low resolution screen. OK if I was going to be staring a laptop screen all day it may be an issue, but thats what docking to a screen is for. And screens are all gloss!

    The "business" spec thing is bemusing me. Yes of course some manufactures have a dedicated business only series - HP Probook as an example. But I can find several where the "business" one is the same model as the consumer one - series name, chassis, processor, memory etc etc. But the fastest processor options are consumer, with a slower one for business. Or buy the exact same machine but one is business...
    Processor names - especially the Intel iCore series can be very misleading. Also a "Slower" i7 can be faster than a "quicker" i5 because of hyperthreading and pipelining issues.

    Unless you are high-end gaming or video editing do not worry too much about the processor. Any modern processor will provide more power than you need even allowing for the retarding effect of Windoze
    The business spec thing is about hardware build quality, not processor specs. Look at the discussion of Macbooks in this thread. On the Windows business laptop side you can say the same about Thinkpads. Mine is more than 10 years old.
    Appreciate the comments! I take your point about i5 vs i7 - a stack of memory is as important as Windows a memory monster these days.

    Build quality I take seriously - need a metal chassis and hinges that aren't going to fall apart. I think some of my confusion on business vs premium consumer is that they're offering "ultrabook" type products to both. The days of business machines being hefty and the consumer ones flimsy plastic are largely gone.

    I take the point about old Macbooks and Thinkpads! Though with both I'd be worried about software-enforced obsolescence - and having to carry a brick-sized Thinkbook around...
    "a stack of memory is as important as Windows a memory monster these days."

    One of the things I *hate* about modern programs is the way many are so damned memory intensive. I know there is a heck of a lot of code reuse and modular gubbins, but from looking at GitHub and elsewhere, so many people seem to now know anything about memory-efficient programming. Though I mainly look at C/C++.

    I know we're not in the days when 1MB is all we have (and yes, 32KB and lower), but it does feel as though people just want to throw memory at their programs. People are more interested in optimising for speed rather than memory, which is fine until your program is running with several others that have the same idea...
    When I started programming on ICL 1903s in 1981 the maximum module size was 16k. Half the time amending a module was spent finding clever ways to keep it under the limit to avoid the ball-ache of having to split it into two or more modules
    I use hard tabs when coding because I learned to program on a computer with just 39k available workspace, and a hard tab saved 3 bytes over a soft tab. It is now 2022 and I still use hard tabs.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    So did Brown and May, for a time.

    Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
    But it wasn't policies which caused the poll shift but the exposure of the self-serving, self-entitled immature behaviour firstly re Patterson and then Boris.

    That Boris still doesn't 'get this', despite the spin line that Boris 'gets it', is apparent from the Gloria Gaynor imitation.
    It was Boris being seen to have not strictly complied with the Covid rules he set that saw Labour take the lead and Sunak attended Boris' birthday party in lockdown anyway, albeit with a soft drink and Sunak also voted not to censure Patterson
    Three observations if I May. 🙂

    What the graphic above actually shows is Tories beginning a steady downward in July, Labour starting steady upward in May, that is almost like a straight line. To say it all began in November with lockdown parties might not be the whole story.

    To say it’s nothing to do with policy? , Tory polling might not have been helped by the cutting of £20 uplift, the announcement of tax rises. To say it’s just Boris mask slipping, nothing to do with unpopular policy might not be true.

    Thirdly, although Labour would not be an obvious beneficiary, the two and a half billion migrants crossing the channel in last couple of years might not be popular amongst a group of Tory/UKIP voters swallowed by Boris for his 80 seat majority. It’s anecdotal for sure, but my mum was raging about this long before Boris troubles began. My theory is, losing these voters to don’t know column, or sit on their hands in actual elections could account for some of what we are now seeing in double digit Tory deficits.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    Trump and his acolytes seem to respond to anything with absolute intensity, if one is going out on a limb against him there seems no point half arsing it with 'distancing', it's not like Trump will go easy on him for it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    More interesting for me than the poll leads are the relative numbers and direction of travel. It's not just about the Tory fall, Labour have been consistently edging up since last summer, albeit with acceleration recently. This is good for Labour, I think, as it's a bit more positive than just the other side being shit.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Aggregate demand is going to be in the toilet H2 this year

    There's still plenty of people with plenty of money.

    They will be getting the good deals in restaurants etc.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Aggregate demand is going to be in the toilet H2 this year

    What do you mean?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    Czech millionaire caught doing 417km/h (260 mph) on a German motorway in a Bugatti Chiron.

    German motorways have no speed limits but prosecutors are investigating to see if if was so dangerous as to be illegal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60301705
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    MMcC's intent & strategy is likely calculated to HELP his party's US Senate incumbents AND contenders in open-seats, in tight races this fall.

    Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Mitch McConnell breaks with RNC on Jan. 6: "We all were here. We saw what happened. It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election, from one administration to the next. That's what it was."

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1491147442817241088?s=20&t=nuKJ0vqp4OVG4IEgkHtqVQ

    Many things are more complicated than they seem. Some are just as straightforward as they seem. That was one of them.

    Belated those his words are, it'd be nice to think that at least some of those who may have spent considerable time and creativity seeking to convince themselves that what they saw happen did not happen, will re-consider their stance.

    It'd be nice to think that, at least for a moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    MMcC's intent & strategy is likely calculated to HELP his party's US Senate incumbents AND contenders in open-seats, in tight races this fall.

    Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
    True but if the GOP core vote sits on its hands that is not much help.

    To win an election you need swing voters and your core vote, only winning one of the 2 is not enough
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    Times reporting that Johnson plans big summer reshuffle for the run-in to next GE.

    That's a long run-in, unless he plans to go early. In which case, bring it on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022

    Times reporting that Johnson plans big summer reshuffle for the run-in to next GE.

    That's a long run-in, unless he plans to go early. In which case, bring it on.
    He better hope the Tories are not hammered in the Spring local elections then, otherwise he may have lost a VONC before we even get to summer.

    In 2019 May went shortly after the dire local election results for her party that year
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    MMcC's intent & strategy is likely calculated to HELP his party's US Senate incumbents AND contenders in open-seats, in tight races this fall.

    Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
    True but if the GOP core vote sits on its hands that is not much help.

    To win an election you need swing voters and your core vote, only winning one of the 2 is not enough
    One problem for GOP is they've been leaking away formerly-core suburban voters. And picking up some lower-propensity Putinists does NOT make up the difference in tight mid-terms.

    Also factor in that multiple factors must be factored into political-electoral equations through to First Tuesday after First Monday next November.

    For example, some of candidates MMcC may be trying to assist may well give him a rhetorical kicking at some point . . .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    MMcC's intent & strategy is likely calculated to HELP his party's US Senate incumbents AND contenders in open-seats, in tight races this fall.

    Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
    True but if the GOP core vote sits on its hands that is not much help.

    To win an election you need swing voters and your core vote, only winning one of the 2 is not enough
    One problem for GOP is they've been leaking away formerly-core suburban voters. And picking up some lower-propensity Putinists does NOT make up the difference in tight mid-terms.

    Also factor in that multiple factors must be factored into political-electoral equations through to First Tuesday after First Monday next November.

    For example, some of candidates MMcC may be trying to assist may well give him a rhetorical kicking at some point . . .
    60% of GOP voters are now Trumpites, they are not just low propensity Putinists
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited February 2022
    Okay. Question. Bernard Looney is in line for a SEVEN FIGURE bonus. For doing what exactly? Mere fortune to be walking past a cash point Russian Thug Putin has just vandalised?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just seen Seth Lakeman. Some chap talking about his new thriller in front of me..

    At Big Time Live in Chesterfield? Me too! Small world! It wasn't me in front of you.
  • Big_Ian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen Seth Lakeman. Some chap talking about his new thriller in front of me..

    At Big Time Live in Chesterfield? Me too! Small world! It wasn't me in front of you.
    *Real Time Live. Probably visited the bar a bit too much..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    MMcC's intent & strategy is likely calculated to HELP his party's US Senate incumbents AND contenders in open-seats, in tight races this fall.

    Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
    True but if the GOP core vote sits on its hands that is not much help.

    To win an election you need swing voters and your core vote, only winning one of the 2 is not enough
    Spot on: the Republicans need both Trumpites and traditional Republicans to head to the polls.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    Wow. That's him going out on a limb.

    Good for him.
    Accurately describing what was blatantly a violent insurrection as a violent insurrection is now "going out on a limb" in the Republican Party. That fact alone shows what an insane fascist cult the modern GOP is.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    MMcC's intent & strategy is likely calculated to HELP his party's US Senate incumbents AND contenders in open-seats, in tight races this fall.

    Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
    True but if the GOP core vote sits on its hands that is not much help.

    To win an election you need swing voters and your core vote, only winning one of the 2 is not enough
    Spot on: the Republicans need both Trumpites and traditional Republicans to head to the polls.
    What they need is moral backbone, but sadly they put getting re-elected above upholding American democracy.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GOP Senate Minority leader McConnell calls Jan. 6 a "violent insurrection" and says the RNC shouldn't have censured Cheney and Kinzinger
    https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/1491135618910670851?s=20&t=LEZiCA8WPFg3l0tEPMNicQ

    He's an odd one. IIRC on the second impeachment he basically said Trump was responsible but wouldn't vote for it, which makes less sense than denying his culpability.
    He is trying to keep the party together while distancing it from Trump.

    However already Trumpites are furious, expect the big man himself to respond in the next few hours.

    McConnelll is right but this could keep the Democrats in charge of the Senate if Trumpites refuse to vote for GOP Senate candidates loyal to McConnell but only for GOP House candidates
    MMcC's intent & strategy is likely calculated to HELP his party's US Senate incumbents AND contenders in open-seats, in tight races this fall.

    Note that middle-class suburban voters, the kind of folks whose shift from R > D has accelerated thanks to #45, are also kind of folks who turn out to vote even in mid-term general elections.
    True but if the GOP core vote sits on its hands that is not much help.

    To win an election you need swing voters and your core vote, only winning one of the 2 is not enough
    One problem for GOP is they've been leaking away formerly-core suburban voters. And picking up some lower-propensity Putinists does NOT make up the difference in tight mid-terms.

    Also factor in that multiple factors must be factored into political-electoral equations through to First Tuesday after First Monday next November.

    For example, some of candidates MMcC may be trying to assist may well give him a rhetorical kicking at some point . . .
    60% of GOP voters are now Trumpites, they are not just low propensity Putinists
    Turnout dynamics & differentials are different for US mid-terms versus presidential-year elections.

    That PLUS movements of swing voters are key factors shaping voting behavior & outcomes.

    As for "Trumpites" that's NOT black & white but rather a continuum . . . that's fraying at both ends . . .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Today's Nerdle.

    https://nerdlegame.com
  • HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    I think that is right though things can change.
    It will be very very tight by the time the election happens. My prediction. For what it is worth.
    Punters agree with you:

    NOM 1.96
    Con Maj 3.4
    Lab Maj 5

    Con Maj still drifting.

    Lab Maj too short.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    As it is we are heading for our first Labour government since 2010 under PM Starmer.

    The polling suggests though that even Sunak would not stop that. He might get the Tories most seats unlike Boris but it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still be PM with SNP and LD support

    The Tories will almost certainly get a significant boost in the polls if and when they choose a new leader.
    So did Brown and May, for a time.

    Only changes of PM midterm which led to a sustained bounce were Thatcher to Major and May to Boris and then there were major policy differences on the poll tax and Brexit respectively
    But it wasn't policies which caused the poll shift but the exposure of the self-serving, self-entitled immature behaviour firstly re Patterson and then Boris.

    That Boris still doesn't 'get this', despite the spin line that Boris 'gets it', is apparent from the Gloria Gaynor imitation.
    Just had the thought that Boris thinks The Office is how offices actually work in real life and that he’s the David Brent of Downing Street.
    image...
  • Tugendhat shoots up the rankings to reach 3rd spot. Feels like Sunak has fluffed his chance. Clear Lay?

    Next Con leader

    Sunak 2.92
    Truss 7.6
    Tugendhat 9.6
    Hunt 9.8
    Mordaunt 14
    Javid 21
    Gove 24
    Wallace 29
    Zahawi 34
    Patel 42
    Baker 46
    Raab 46
  • ‘Revealed: Furious Boris Johnson ‘threatens legal action’ over biography’s claims about Carrie’
    - Exclusive: The prime minister was distracted for hours by allegations in Lord Ashcroft’s book, sources say

    Boris Johnson spent hours in a state of fury in No 10 after claims about his wife were published in the serialisation of an unauthorised biography by a Tory peer – even threatening to take legal action, according to Downing Street insiders.

    The prime minister claimed the book by Lord Ashcroft, which has been serialised in the Mail, was defamatory and told one worker he was getting advice from lawyers, The Independent understands.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-carrie-first-lady-b2010170.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    ‘Revealed: Furious Boris Johnson ‘threatens legal action’ over biography’s claims about Carrie’
    - Exclusive: The prime minister was distracted for hours by allegations in Lord Ashcroft’s book, sources say

    Boris Johnson spent hours in a state of fury in No 10 after claims about his wife were published in the serialisation of an unauthorised biography by a Tory peer – even threatening to take legal action, according to Downing Street insiders.

    The prime minister claimed the book by Lord Ashcroft, which has been serialised in the Mail, was defamatory and told one worker he was getting advice from lawyers, The Independent understands.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-carrie-first-lady-b2010170.html

    Ashcroft (and Cummings) isn’t going to stop.

    All the PM would be doing by trying to sue a man with such deep pockets, is both bankrupt himself and have weeks of reporting about the court case repeating all the allegations.

    In such a high profile role, you have to accept that people will say nasty things about you.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Tugendhat shoots up the rankings to reach 3rd spot. Feels like Sunak has fluffed his chance. Clear Lay?

    Next Con leader

    Sunak 2.92
    Truss 7.6
    Tugendhat 9.6
    Hunt 9.8
    Mordaunt 14
    Javid 21
    Gove 24
    Wallace 29
    Zahawi 34
    Patel 42
    Baker 46
    Raab 46

    Javid looks like possibly the value from that field.

    Sunak has a small window of opportunity, he’s about to go from being seen as the nice man handing out piles of money, to the nasty man putting up taxes as inflation hits.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    OT - the poll leads for Labour will vary 2/3 points over time - probably drifting slowly down but as long as Boris remains the Tory leads will not return. It's that simple the public mindset is unlikely to change now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Boris Johnson's leadership past point of no return, says big Tory donor https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60310694
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited February 2022
    I don't see the Conservatives recovering from this if they persist with Johnson. History tells us they won't.

    I've been looking back at key periods of similar polling and there has never been a Governing party that has recovered from such a paradigm shift. The closest comparison is Black Wednesday but there are others too.

    1975-1979 saw a similar shift. The Winter of Discontent did for Labour:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1979_United_Kingdom_general_election#1977

    1987 - 1992 saw the tories sliding in the polls, especially with the hated poll tax, until they ditched Margaret Thatcher when under John Major they returned to level pegging:
    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992

    1992-1997 saw a similar shift. Black Wednesday did for the tories. When Tony Blair was elected Labour leader two years later they got a further lift, but the damage had already been done and was similar to now:
    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

    Conservatives have occupied No.10 Downing St since 2010. By the time of the next General Election in 2024 they will have held the keys for 14 years.

    I am convinced they will be out of power. Whether a change of leader would be enough to save their bacon they don't seem prepared to test. The danger for them, the real danger, is the ongoing catastrophe of the Johnson premiership will see the tories destroyed for a generation. The unpleasantness surrounding the Savile slur is a sign of what we should expect over the remaining two tawdry years.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Pulpstar said:

    Aggregate demand is going to be in the toilet H2 this year

    So should bring inflation down then ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    I am getting more uncomfortable about the s*t being thrown at Carrie. She's an easy target and it's getting fairly nasty.

    It’s been clear for a couple of years that she’s been running a shadow policy and management team inside No.10, to the point that everyone who was there doing those jobs officially has walked out, leaving a massive hole where the government’s leadership is supposed to be.

    This lack of a co-ordinated team in No.10, is why the government is lurching from crisis to crisis. There’s no-one there willing to tell the PM what’s really going on and how to react to it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    \

    All the PM would be doing by trying to sue a man with such deep pockets, is both bankrupt himself and have weeks of reporting about the court case repeating all the allegations.

    It's quite touching that you think he'll be paying his own legal bills. That's what tory donors are for.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Sandpit said:

    I am getting more uncomfortable about the s*t being thrown at Carrie. She's an easy target and it's getting fairly nasty.

    It’s been clear for a couple of years that she’s been running a shadow policy and management team inside No.10, to the point that everyone who was there doing those jobs officially has walked out, leaving a massive hole where the government’s leadership is supposed to be.

    This lack of a co-ordinated team in No.10, is why the government is lurching from crisis to crisis. There’s no-one there willing to tell the PM what’s really going on and how to react to it.
    "It’s been clear for a couple of years "

    Has it? Or is she just an easy way of getting at the PM?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Heathener said:

    I don't see the Conservatives recovering from this if they persist with Johnson. History tells us they won't.

    I've been looking back at key periods of similar polling and there has never been a Governing party that has recovered from such a paradigm shift. The closest comparison is Black Wednesday but there are others too.

    1975-1979 saw a similar shift. The Winter of Discontent did for Labour:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1979_United_Kingdom_general_election#1977

    1987 - 1992 saw the tories sliding in the polls, especially with the hated poll tax, until they ditched Margaret Thatcher when under John Major they returned to level pegging:
    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992

    1992-1997 saw a similar shift. Black Wednesday did for the tories. When Tony Blair was elected Labour leader two years later they got a further lift, but the damage had already been done and was similar to now:
    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

    Conservatives have occupied No.10 Downing St since 2010. By the time of the next General Election in 2024 they will have held the keys for 14 years.

    I am convinced they will be out of power. Whether a change of leader would be enough to save their bacon they don't seem prepared to test. The danger for them, the real danger, is the ongoing catastrophe of the Johnson premiership will see the tories destroyed for a generation. The unpleasantness surrounding the Savile slur is a sign of what we should expect over the remaining two tawdry years.

    I agree. I lived through all those that you mentioned and it looks like one of those times when the tide has turned. The Tories only chance is to change leader and direction, but that is double or quits. It could easily be worse.

    The whole Populist Brexiteer government have been shown to be corrupt shysters, and the very antithesis of taking back control.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited February 2022
    Maybe we're finally going to get a Lab/LD coalition after the next election. They could introduce proportional representation, something Blair should probably have done in about 2005.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Aggregate demand is going to be in the toilet H2 this year

    So should bring inflation down then ?
    Not by much. It is a supply crunch rather than demand driving inflation.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Sandpit said:

    I am getting more uncomfortable about the s*t being thrown at Carrie. She's an easy target and it's getting fairly nasty.

    It’s been clear for a couple of years that she’s been running a shadow policy and management team inside No.10, to the point that everyone who was there doing those jobs officially has walked out, leaving a massive hole where the government’s leadership is supposed to be.

    This lack of a co-ordinated team in No.10, is why the government is lurching from crisis to crisis. There’s no-one there willing to tell the PM what’s really going on and how to react to it.
    Yes I have to say that even though I'm obviously a feminist I am nevertheless uncomfortable about Carrie's role in policy making and governing. There is no place for a PM's spouse to be central to policy. Dennis Thatcher famously kept a back seat. Cherie Booth (Blair) by contrast did appear on occasion to interfere.

    But Carrie is something else and much of that goes back to Johnson. He is clearly under her thrall. I suspect that's in part because she has a lot on him but he may also be genuinely mesmerised by her.

    She is clearly a very capable, brilliant, operator who like her partner sails close to the wind. She has a small inner circle of trusted friends who appear to enjoy her company in Downing St, and she likes her parties. She shares with Johnson a propensity to blow money.

    The real trouble for the tories is deeper: it's her politics. She is green and pretty left of centre. Therefore it's easy to see those of Johnson's (frankly un-Conservative) policies as owing to her influence. The fact that he has no epistemological coherence only compounds the bewilderment throughout the Party. As someone mentioned below, some of the tory poll slide began before Paterson. The right of the party are deeply unhappy. The Mail, for instance, are on a 'Spike the Hike' mission (see today's front cover): they are furious at a Conservative Party being the highest spending, highest taxing party in a lifetime.

    Boris Johnson just isn't a Conservative and it's easy to blame Carrie. But it's him too: it's not only a moral compass he lacks. He has no political one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    \

    All the PM would be doing by trying to sue a man with such deep pockets, is both bankrupt himself and have weeks of reporting about the court case repeating all the allegations.

    It's quite touching that you think he'll be paying his own legal bills. That's what tory donors are for.
    The Tory donors are starting to turn against him now, and are looking towards the contest. See BBC link above.

    Matthew Symonds might throw a few quid at it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Grim.

    This is *not* the kind of country we want to be.

    The prospect of adopting this approach poses yet more serious questions for my Conservative MP colleagues and I to consider in the weeks and months ahead.
    https://twitter.com/Mark_J_Harper/status/1491124629184065542
    https://twitter.com/sophiasleigh/status/1491092648371044352
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Sandpit said:

    I am getting more uncomfortable about the s*t being thrown at Carrie. She's an easy target and it's getting fairly nasty.

    It’s been clear for a couple of years that she’s been running a shadow policy and management team inside No.10, to the point that everyone who was there doing those jobs officially has walked out, leaving a massive hole where the government’s leadership is supposed to be.

    This lack of a co-ordinated team in No.10, is why the government is lurching from crisis to crisis. There’s no-one there willing to tell the PM what’s really going on and how to react to it.
    The rather bigger problem is the PM being a proven liar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Sandpit said:

    Tugendhat shoots up the rankings to reach 3rd spot. Feels like Sunak has fluffed his chance. Clear Lay?

    Next Con leader

    Sunak 2.92
    Truss 7.6
    Tugendhat 9.6
    Hunt 9.8
    Mordaunt 14
    Javid 21
    Gove 24
    Wallace 29
    Zahawi 34
    Patel 42
    Baker 46
    Raab 46

    Javid looks like possibly the value from that field.

    Sunak has a small window of opportunity, he’s about to go from being seen as the nice man handing out piles of money, to the nasty man putting up taxes as inflation hits.
    So, you think Sunak is too short?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Tugendhat shoots up the rankings to reach 3rd spot. Feels like Sunak has fluffed his chance. Clear Lay?

    Next Con leader

    Sunak 2.92
    Truss 7.6
    Tugendhat 9.6
    Hunt 9.8
    Mordaunt 14
    Javid 21
    Gove 24
    Wallace 29
    Zahawi 34
    Patel 42
    Baker 46
    Raab 46

    Sunak drifting may make for better value. None of the others are going to improve things, and the few competent ones are without enough support in the party.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    I am getting more uncomfortable about the s*t being thrown at Carrie. She's an easy target and it's getting fairly nasty.

    It’s been clear for a couple of years that she’s been running a shadow policy and management team inside No.10, to the point that everyone who was there doing those jobs officially has walked out, leaving a massive hole where the government’s leadership is supposed to be.

    This lack of a co-ordinated team in No.10, is why the government is lurching from crisis to crisis. There’s no-one there willing to tell the PM what’s really going on and how to react to it.
    "It’s been clear for a couple of years "

    Has it? Or is she just an easy way of getting at the PM?
    She’s the only way to getting to the PM, because he isn’t listening to anyone else. Yes, it’s been clear for ages, there were rumours very early on that Cummings had fallen out with her because she was interfering in business and distracting the PM with personal trivialities.

    The Guardian were taking the piss even before the last election: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/13/secret-diary-of-carrie-symonds-boris-johnson-dominc-cummings
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tugendhat shoots up the rankings to reach 3rd spot. Feels like Sunak has fluffed his chance. Clear Lay?

    Next Con leader

    Sunak 2.92
    Truss 7.6
    Tugendhat 9.6
    Hunt 9.8
    Mordaunt 14
    Javid 21
    Gove 24
    Wallace 29
    Zahawi 34
    Patel 42
    Baker 46
    Raab 46

    Javid looks like possibly the value from that field.

    Sunak has a small window of opportunity, he’s about to go from being seen as the nice man handing out piles of money, to the nasty man putting up taxes as inflation hits.
    So, you think Sunak is too short?
    I wouldn’t put it quite like that ;)

    He’s not as short as he was a couple of weeks ago.
This discussion has been closed.