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The markets edge back to Johnson but 2022 exit still odds on – politicalbetting.com

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  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    IshmaelZ said:

    Why can't I resort it by col D?
    I take it it's locked or whatever the correct term is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,658

    The way I always saw Jezza issues with Jews / Israel is that a) he is very dense and b) he has this very simple world view, opposers vs opposed. Opposers are the rich, the powerful and the opposed bad behaviour can be excused away because of not as bad as the opposers long history. From this a) Israel bad / Hamas can be excused and b) falls for the rich powerful Jews trope and does see it as wider anti-Jewish / antisemitism.

    Yep I think that is it. Just as black people can't be racist. In Corbyn's hierarchy of discrimination the Jews, because they control the media, banks, and governments, while convening their secret global government in a volcano somewhere, cannot be discriminated against as they are at the apex of the power structure that he believes exists.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    "Five Insulate Britain activists jailed over M25 protests
    Climate campaigners convicted of breaching injunction by taking part in actions that brought motorway to a standstill'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/02/five-insulate-britain-activists-jailed-m25-protests/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited February 2022
    JBriskin3 said:

    I would say the BBC and STV have a pro-SNP Type bias, yes.
    Seriously? Really?

    You do know who Ruth Davidson and Sarah Smith used to work for? BBC Scotland. Now I'm sure they were terribly neutral on air, they are not stupid.

    But I do remember the election when the SNP got a shock victory - 2010 it must have been - and the news presenter in the studio on election night started crying and turned to the very senior Slab politician and said "Whatever will we do now??" live on air. Edit: can't recall now if BBC or STV.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    TOPPING said:

    He was absolutely anti-Israel (itself a Jewish state) but allowed himself to become both for example the mural which showed to me that for all his some of my best friends are Jews schtick, he would enthusiastically endorse "classical" anti-semitic tropes. Plus the present but not involved thing.
    It was a telling incident, because there were people who maintained the mural was not 'obviously' anti-semitic (and probably still will), but Corbyn himself publicy disagreed, since he apologised for not examining it closely enough and that he agreed it was anti-semitic.

    So either he lied about accepting it was anti-semitic and regretting his comment, or he was telling the truth and he for some reason failed to spot what he later called obvious anti-semitism. Which I can believe, but rather dents his fans' claims about what a great anti-racist he was, if he couldn't spot it (notably he did not claim he did not look at the image before commenting, he said he did not look 'more closely' at it at the time).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43523445
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    edited February 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Yep I think that is it. Just as black people can't be racist. In Corbyn's hierarchy of discrimination the Jews, because they control the media, banks, and governments, while convening their secret global government in a volcano somewhere, cannot be discriminated against as they are at the apex of the power structure that he believes exists.
    It is also why he is happy to be friends with Jews who align with his wider political beliefs. It isn't out and out racist / antisemitism against all Jews in the way say the Neo Nazi lot in the US, although they also play into the same underlying trope of Jews run the world.
  • ajbajb Posts: 152
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    No, but if wiki is to be believed either the trickle became a flood, or most had kept schtum. Keep any eye out for a paragon of leadership.

    By 11 December, the public count was still at twenty-six letters from MPs. That day, however, Owen Paterson publicly sent his letter and it later became clear that forty-eight letters had been submitted

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Conservative_Party_leadership_election#12_December_confidence_vote

    Even so, that was a lot more publicly known for May - because it was about something more cared about, policy.
    So more than 50% of those submitting were public, but as of now we have just less than 25% of the 54 needed. Aways away yet then.
  • Leon said:

    How about, you’re a racist but you cannot possibly accept that, hence your confusion?

    She’s a small, smirking, not-posh Asian woman with right wing beliefs. She fails you, racially. She should be Left
    If you imagine all Asian people should be left wing, you've obviously not met many!
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited February 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Doesn't cost hugely extra if you book in advance, and if you are on the ECML services from Kings X the main intercity services give or at least gave you tea, coffee, meals etc. ad lib - but DYOR as this (a) depends on the covid situation and (b) depends how long/where/when you are travelling. Mrs C used to make a regular work journey to NE England - went early for breakfast on the train before hopping off for the local at Newcastle.
    The Standard Premium service on Avanti is good. Its £15-£30 extra to sit in a first class carriage, but you don't get any free food/drinks. My main complaint about travelling by train is the overcrowded carriages with uncomfortable seats and this makes travelling by train a lot more enjoyable. The problem though is first class/standard premium is not environmentally friendly. The supposed carbon savings of travelling by train compared with car or plane all assume the train is full and standard class seating is much more efficient in this respect. But travelling on a full train in Standard class is pretty miserable.
  • Re: spreadsheet of Conservative MPs viz-a-viz Big Dog letters, very interesting AND maybe even useful!

    Have already crunched it to get around the sort-by-first-name issue.

    What would make the spread more valuable, would be IF it also indicated which Tories are ministers, whips, PPSs or otherwise part of the payroll vote; plus deputy speakers.
  • South West MPs starting to crumble and submit letters.

    The threat of LibDems coming back in one of their old heartlands on the back of ParyGate anger?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    edited February 2022
    The leader of the Conservative Party has just been ousted after losing a vote amongst his MPs.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-erin-otoole-loses-conservative-party-leadership-vote/
  • Carnyx said:

    BBC Scotland is just a local branch of the BBC, on a PB point of order.

    So the BBC and STV put out pro-SNP propaganda? Remarkable if true.
    That they don’t routinely refer to the SNP as the Scottish Nationalist Party of Arthur Donaldson and Sturgeon as Nippy is conclusive proof of their bias.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    edited February 2022

    South West MPs starting to crumble and submit letters.

    The threat of LibDems coming back in one of their old heartlands on the back of ParyGate anger?

    Too far from London to control, perhaps. Some of the Red Wallers are riotus too.

    Or perhaps the opposite - they are so safe in their seats they cannot be bullied.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    Too far from London to control, perhaps. Some of the Red Wallers are riotus too.
    May well be something in your distance theory. The Scots started it, so to speak. None in NI to count either way.
  • Sweden lifting all Covid restrictions 9 February.
    Denmark lifted them last week.

    England also lifted them on Monday.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Carnyx said:

    Seriously? Really?

    You do know who Ruth Davidson and Sarah Smith used to work for? BBC Scotland. Now I'm sure they were terribly neutral on air, they are not stupid.

    But I do remember the election when the SNP got a shock victory - 2010 it must have been - and the news presenter in the studio on election night started crying and turned to the very senior Slab politician and said "Whatever will we do now??" live on air. Edit: can't recall now if BBC or STV.
    I seriously believe the BBC and STV have a pro-SNP Type bias nowadays - I don't think it was that way in 2010.

    I wonder what the "independent" Electoral Commission thought of Sturgeon being on TV for every day in the run up to Holyrood 2021.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,074
    rcs1000 said:

    Didn't she go to Cambridge?
    And a marvellously sunny day it was, too.
  • Re: letters, as was just noted, last time it was drip . . . drip . . . drip . . . FLOOOOOOOOOOD!

    Like how the English Channel (and Channelled Scablands of eastern WA State) were created:

    Megaflood: How Britain Became an Island
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW5HJWSpLWE
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    If you imagine all Asian people should be left wing, you've obviously not met many!
    That makes me think of that Corbyn tweet about how only Labour could be 'trusted' to unlock the talent of BAME people. Lot of Tory politicians got some humour out of that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,418

    South West MPs starting to crumble and submit letters.

    The threat of LibDems coming back in one of their old heartlands on the back of ParyGate anger?

    Unlikely to be a factor with Mangnall and Streeter. Mangnall especially has shown he is is his own man. Streeter may not run again anyway.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be interesting to see if Norway, Iceland and Finland do the same.
    Do you think we will do the same or have the government just forgotten about them? I had Covid last week and no one cares. The supermarket delivery guy just laughed at me when I told him over the intercom when he came to do the home delivery. Not a single person is wearing a mask at school drop off/pick up. And still if you report a positive test track and trace force you to do a 30 minute long interview of your last 3 days of movements and threaten you with fines if you do not adhere to self isolation, after you voluntarily test yourself and report the results. The whole thing is ridiculous.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    JBriskin3 said:

    I seriously believe the BBC and STV have a pro-SNP Type bias nowadays - I don't think it was that way in 2010.

    I wonder what the "independent" Electoral Commission thought of Sturgeon being on TV for every day in the run up to Holyrood 2021.
    Mr Johnson and his minions too, for the same reason. So you can't complain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    That they don’t routinely refer to the SNP as the Scottish Nationalist Party of Arthur Donaldson and Sturgeon as Nippy is conclusive proof of their bias.
    What is this 'Nippy' name about anyway, I've never gotten it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,550
    edited February 2022
    Hurrah.

    Ashley Giles is standing down as Managing Director, England Men’s Cricket.

    Ashley is leaving after three years in the role during which England Men became 50-over World Champions and are currently ranked the world’s best T20I side, 2nd in ODIs and 4th for Tests.

    Sir Andrew Strauss has agreed to step into the role on an interim basis and will put in place arrangements for the forthcoming West Indies Tour, while the search begins for a full-time replacement.

    https://www.ecb.co.uk/england/men/news/2470229/ashley-giles-managing-director-england-mens-cricket-to-leave-ecb

    Now is the time for Silverwood to go.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,625
    edited February 2022
    JBriskin3 said:

    I think the key fact from the spreadsheet at this point is-

    Confirmed + Suspected 74.3% (of 54 letters)
    I think also the the very large number 'unclear' is significant.

    I could easily imagine my own MP, Lurence Robertson, submitting a letter for very much the same reason that Aaron Bell did. Robertson is no maverick though and this is a Tory and Leave area so if he did, he would probably want to keep quiet about it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Re: letters, as was just noted, last time it was drip . . . drip . . . drip . . . FLOOOOOOOOOOD!

    Like how the English Channel (and Channelled Scablands of eastern WA State) were created:

    Megaflood: How Britain Became an Island
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW5HJWSpLWE

    Or indeed how the Med refilled ... and the Black Sea ...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Leon uses epithets like "Japs" and then thinks he can sniff out racism from 6000 miles away. Bizarre character.
    Is Brits racist?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    That they don’t routinely refer to the SNP as the Scottish Nationalist Party of Arthur Donaldson and Sturgeon as Nippy is conclusive proof of their bias.
    Nippy should be being no-platformed not shown every day on TV for a whole year before a Holyrood election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Disappointed my MP is on the list as a firm No. Kiss ass.
  • OT you can't give Paypal shares away. 25% down in a day. Not sure why but crikey.
  • Hurrah.

    Ashley Giles is standing down as Managing Director, England Men’s Cricket.

    Ashley is leaving after three years in the role during which England Men became 50-over World Champions and are currently ranked the world’s best T20I side, 2nd in ODIs and 4th for Tests.

    Sir Andrew Strauss has agreed to step into the role on an interim basis and will put in place arrangements for the forthcoming West Indies Tour, while the search begins for a full-time replacement.

    https://www.ecb.co.uk/england/men/news/2470229/ashley-giles-managing-director-england-mens-cricket-to-leave-ecb

    Now is the time for Silverwood to go.

    Worse job than whoever takes over from Boris....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,658
    darkage said:

    Do you think we will do the same or have the government just forgotten about them? I had Covid last week and no one cares. The supermarket delivery guy just laughed at me when I told him over the intercom when he came to do the home delivery. Not a single person is wearing a mask at school drop off/pick up. And still if you report a positive test track and trace force you to do a 30 minute long interview of your last 3 days of movements and threaten you with fines if you do not adhere to self isolation, after you voluntarily test yourself and report the results. The whole thing is ridiculous.
    It is a public service to report a self-administered LTF in order to give the govt good stats to work with. On a personal level it is absolutely bonkers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    edited February 2022
    The spreadsheet isn't 100% because it has a field for "sources" but then fails to give one for a number of MPs such as Caroline Nokes and James Morris.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kle4 said:

    What is this 'Nippy' name about anyway, I've never gotten it.
    Unionist misogyny.

    Nippy (Scots) = sharp, tart. Often in the format 'nippy sweetie' = dram, or, in this context, a sour sweet of some kind.

    Used of a woman who is assertive and does not defer to masculine self-importance. Ditto Unionist self-importance. It is highly misogynistic.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,658

    England also lifted them on Monday.
    Yeah apart from the self-isolation and allowing the MoL to keep them on his transport systems.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    kle4 said:

    What is this 'Nippy' name about anyway, I've never gotten it.
    Apparently the full version is Nippy Sweetie - but I use it because whenever her mugs on TV she Nips your "heid".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    JBriskin3 said:

    Apparently the full version is Nippy Sweetie - but I use it because whenever her mugs on TV she Nips your "heid".
    I hate to think what you call Germaine Greer.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    darkage said:

    Do you think we will do the same or have the government just forgotten about them? I had Covid last week and no one cares. The supermarket delivery guy just laughed at me when I told him over the intercom when he came to do the home delivery. Not a single person is wearing a mask at school drop off/pick up. And still if you report a positive test track and trace force you to do a 30 minute long interview of your last 3 days of movements and threaten you with fines if you do not adhere to self isolation, after you voluntarily test yourself and report the results. The whole thing is ridiculous.
    In moonshine manor we had a bit of minor marital strife this week because we are both positive right now. Dustbin lid is fine because he was probably patient zero over a week ago. I wanted to take him to school but Mrs Moonshine said we would become social pariahs for breaking the rules. Fuck the rules I said, they clearly weren’t ever meant to be followed anyway. Of course she prevailed.

    Amusingly the school has emailed saying that our kid is “expected” to still come to school even if his parents are both positive. Just wear a mask and drop him at the door, it counts as an exceptional circumstance that allows me out the house.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2022

    England also lifted them on Monday.
    Huh? I thought they weren’t being lifted til 24 March?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Carnyx said:

    Mr Johnson and his minions too, for the same reason. So you can't complain.
    Wrong.

    Johnson and Co stopped daily Covid briefings. Nippy, in a Scottish election year; didn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is Brits racist?
    I cannot say I've ever heard of Japs used as a racist epithet. It could be, same way paki definitely is (since it is used when people have no way of knowing if the target has anything to do with Pakistan for a start), but reference to the Japanese at all would probably be less common so I may have missed it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JBriskin3 said:

    Nice! Alphabetisation by first name is a little gouche though.
    Just further evidence that @Tissue_Price is on a complete roll. Even cockups like that going his way
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    I cannot say I've ever heard of Japs used as a racist epithet. It could be, same way paki definitely is (since it is used when people have no way of knowing if the target has anything to do with Pakistan for a start), but reference to the Japanese at all would probably be less common so I may have missed it.
    Japs also stands for Jewish American Princesses, which I guess is on topic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    JBriskin3 said:

    Wrong.

    Johnson and Co stopped daily Covid briefings. Nippy, in a Scottish election year; didn't.
    So doing a public service is a bad thing? It's not as if Mr Johnson stopped being photographed in hi-vis vests.
  • kle4 said:

    What is this 'Nippy' name about anyway, I've never gotten it.
    Contraction of nippy sweetie, a term usually applied to a sharp, rebarbative woman.
    It’s the go to term for Sturgeon for sections of the Unionist community.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,074
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    I flew from St Thomas to Puerto Rico in the late Seventies with this eccentric airline:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antilles_Air_Boats

    The pilot was the only crew, and the co-pilot seat had the instruments removed to turn it into another passenger seat. Alas, my brother got that one. After taxiing down the ramp into the water the pilot had to handcraft up the wheels before taking off from the harbour.

    The whole airline was a bit heath Robinson, and unfortunately the founder died in one of the planes shortly after, but a great experience while it lasted.
    - Casablanca to Marrakesh by Air Maroc. Normally when you fly across mountains, you look down on the peaks way below. On that flight, you could look up at the peaks of the Atlas Mountains going past the window.

    - London to Venice Marco Polo by Al Italia. Just for the moment looking out of the window when I remarked to the other half that I was sure the airport we could see, way below, was where we were supposed to be heading; a minute or two later the pilot belatedly arrived at the same conclusion, and thence began the steepest dive I have ever experienced on a regular commercial flight.

    - My own solo flight from San Diego to Los Angeles Van Nuys, making the low level VFR transit across LAX followed by a curving descent into a very busy GA airport whilst the hills to the north of LA were on fire.

    - being flown around his outback ‘farm’ in South Australia by a sheep farmer, looking for his sheep; his farm being larger than a fair few English counties.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Carnyx said:

    I hate to think what you call Germaine Greer.
    I like Germaine Greer. I call her, err, Germaine Greer - What's your point?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    JBriskin3 said:

    I like Germaine Greer. I call her, err, Germaine Greer - What's your point?
    Excellent: just checking.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,096

    OT you can't give Paypal shares away. 25% down in a day. Not sure why but crikey.

    Markets are a bit weird at the moment, particularly the Nasdaq. My US portfolio is 10% down this month, but bounced back quite a bit this week.

  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Carnyx said:

    So doing a public service is a bad thing? It's not as if Mr Johnson stopped being photographed in hi-vis vests.
    So Nippy had her mug on TV for a full year before a Scottish election and it was a Public Service?

    How kind of her.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    JBriskin3 said:

    So Nippy had her mug on TV for a full year before a Scottish election and it was a Public Service?

    How kind of her.
    Oh, my! You didn't have to watch it every day, just to check, but it is very kind of you for doing so. I just checked the Graun feed later on. ,
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I've been backing Priti Patel as a next con leader for years. At 50/1 the odds are very good. In a funny sort of way, Patel could be the 'continuity Boris' candidate. She could appeal to the red wall, and has decent Brexit credentials, in a way that someone like Truss does not. The way in which she gets flippantly dismissed on here is evidence of prejudice rather good analysis. It is the brexit/trump fallacy - people think it will never happen because it is so absurd, but then it does.

    On the other hand, I think the odds are so long because she is historically unpopular amongst conservative MPs, and there is little sign that this has changed. Also, her ratings with the public are shockingly bad. So for the moment at least it looks like we will be saved from the fate of PM Patel, which I have to say I am personally relieved about, because my personal view of her is similar to that expressed by @Richard_Tyndall earlier.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,658
    IanB2 said:

    - Casablanca to Marrakesh by Air Maroc. Normally when you fly across mountains, you look down on the peaks way below. On that flight, you could look up at the peaks of the Atlas Mountains going past the window.

    - London to Venice Marco Polo by Al Italia. Just for the moment looking out of the window when I remarked to the other half that I was sure the airport we could see, way below, was where we were supposed to be heading; a minute or two later the pilot belatedly arrived at the same conclusion, and thence began the steepest dive I have ever experienced on a regular commercial flight.

    - My own solo flight from San Diego to Los Angeles Van Nuys, making the low level VFR transit across LAX followed by a curving descent into a very busy GA airport whilst the hills to the north of LA were on fire.

    - being flown around his outback ‘farm’ in South Australia by a sheep farmer, his farm being larger than most English counties.
    Meanwhile with HMF in Belize going on R&R to the local countries there were two airlines as I remember: TACA and SAHSA. Or as they were known locally, Take a Chance Airways and Stay at Home, Stay Alive.

    At Teguchigulpa (sp) there is a strong incentive to take off in a timely manner as there is a mountain range at the end of the runway.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Carnyx said:

    Oh, my! You didn't have to watch it every day, just to check, but it is very kind of you for doing so. I just checked the Graun feed later on. ,
    The electoral commission should have not allowed it.
  • Willamette Week - This Bud's for You (from 1984)

    https://www.wweek.com/portland/article-4183-1984.html

    Upset election victory & eventful two-terms as Mayor of Portland, Oregon by rank outsider Bud Clark (who just passed away).

    "Clark . . . was a tavern owner, not a political heavyweight. He hadn't run for office since his campaign for sophomore class president at Lincoln High School in 1947. The bearded barkeep was chiefly known outside his Goose Hollow neighborhood for flashing a statue in a controversial poster Expose Yourself to Art. His idea of dressing up meant dusting off the lederhosen. His favorite mode of transit was bicycle or canoe. He was a foul-mouthed, 52-year-old ex-beatnik and "born-again pagan," a registered Republican who threatened to vote for Jesse Jackson."

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    IanB2 said:

    - Casablanca to Marrakesh by Air Maroc. Normally when you fly across mountains, you look down on the peaks way below. On that flight, you could look up at the peaks of the Atlas Mountains going past the window.

    - London to Venice Marco Polo by Al Italia. Just for the moment looking out of the window when I remarked to the other half that I was sure the airport we could see, way below, was where we were supposed to be heading; a minute or two later the pilot clearly arrived at the same thought, and thence began the steepest dive I have ever experienced on a regular commercial flight.

    - My own solo flight from San Diego to Los Angeles Van Nuys, making the low level VFR transit across LAX followed by a curving descent into a very busy GA airport whilst the hills to the north of LA were on fire.
    Rurrenebaque to Laz Paz (Bolivia).

    You take off from a jungle airstrip in the Amazon basin. It’s a small prop plane, you climb and climb leaving the green below you. The Andes then appear like a cliff edge. As you cross the pristine snow capped peaks the pilot hands you an oxygen mask. You then descend fast to the madness of city in the middle of a volcanic crater that is La Paz. I did it with about an oz of weed in my pockets too, nothing in the way of security going on. 20 years ago now mind, perhaps times have changed. It was just prior to the Morales revolution so things were pretty highly charged.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    edited February 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    The spreadsheet isn't 100% because it has a field for "sources" but then fails to give one for a number of MPs such as Caroline Nokes and James Morris.

    I'm a bit dubious about the spreadsheet. Gary Sambrook is down as "suspected". Yet I have rarely seen as sycophantic a tweet as this:

    https://twitter.com/GarySambrook89/status/1488243552874283011?cxt=HHwWhoCyxYropqcpAAAA
  • JBriskin3 said:

    Japs also stands for Jewish American Princesses, which I guess is on topic.
    Back in the days when people in US also talked about WASPs. Very 20th-century, now historical artifacts.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Carnyx said:

    Oh, my! You didn't have to watch it every day, just to check, but it is very kind of you for doing so. I just checked the Graun feed later on. ,
    And unfortunately for me I did have to watch it every day as my girlfriend at the time (formerly known as Ms Briskin) wanted to watch it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    JBriskin3 said:

    The electoral commission should have not allowed it.
    Then you'd complain because Kate Forbes was on instead. And so on ad infinitum.

    Do you seriously think the Scons wouldn't have made their complaints if they thought there was any sense in it ? The EC is a UK body.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,074
    Foxy said:

    Markets are a bit weird at the moment, particularly the Nasdaq. My US portfolio is 10% down this month, but bounced back quite a bit this week.

    The gyrations of the Dow suggest that a lot of people are poised to sell as soon as there’s a hint that real world news might trump the lack of alternative places to put your money. With the recovery indicating that there are still lots of people prepared to buy back on the dips.

    I think we are in for a rocky year.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Andy_JS said:
    Thanks for posting this.

    Does anyone please have the link to, was it Nick Palmer(?) with his breakdown of where he thought everyone was at
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,658
    IanB2 said:

    The gyrations of the Dow suggest that a lot of people are poised to sell as soon as there’s a hint that real world news might trump the lack of alternative places to put your money. With the recovery indicating that there are still lots of people prepared to buy back on the dips.

    I think we are in for a rocky year.
    I think we discussed this during the first Covid sell off. Sure (equity) markets are overpriced and valuations bonkers. But. There is nowhere else for the money to go. Let's say you sell out of equities. Now what. Rates are rising but to what, 1-2%? Look at inflation expectations.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    JBriskin3 said:

    And unfortunately for me I did have to watch it every day as my girlfriend at the time (formerly known as Ms Briskin) wanted to watch it.
    Jusdt turn round and put your fingers in your ears/noise-cancelling earphones (whichever you prefer).
  • JBriskin3 said:

    The electoral commission should have not allowed it.
    Didn't you know that they're also in the SNP's pocket, you naive fool?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    IanB2 said:

    The gyrations of the Dow suggest that a lot of people are poised to sell as soon as there’s a hint that real world news might trump the lack of alternative places to put your money. With the recovery indicating that there are still lots of people prepared to buy back on the dips.

    I think we are in for a rocky year.
    There is no top, BTFD
  • Huh? I thought they weren’t being lifted til 24 March?
    The only restriction remaining until March is the need to isolate if you actually test positive. All the rest were lifted already. And even Denmark (like England) are retaining some minor restrictions such as the requirement to wear masks in hospitals and care homes.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    moonshine said:

    In moonshine manor we had a bit of minor marital strife this week because we are both positive right now. Dustbin lid is fine because he was probably patient zero over a week ago. I wanted to take him to school but Mrs Moonshine said we would become social pariahs for breaking the rules. Fuck the rules I said, they clearly weren’t ever meant to be followed anyway. Of course she prevailed.

    Amusingly the school has emailed saying that our kid is “expected” to still come to school even if his parents are both positive. Just wear a mask and drop him at the door, it counts as an exceptional circumstance that allows me out the house.
    Yeah we had a very similar scenario. I followed the rules but eventually came to the conclusion they are just for cowards. A view the PM obviously came to 18 months ago.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JBriskin3 said:

    I like Germaine Greer. I call her, err, Germaine Greer - What's your point?
    This Germaine Greer?

    “Just because you lop off your d**k and then wear a dress doesn’t make you a f***ing woman.

    “I’ve asked my doctor to give me long ears and liver spots and I’m going to wear a brown coat but that doesn’t turn me into a f***ing cocker spaniel.

    “A man who gets his d**k chopped off is actually inflicting an extraordinary act of violence on himself.”
  • Carnyx said:

    Unionist misogyny.

    Nippy (Scots) = sharp, tart. Often in the format 'nippy sweetie' = dram, or, in this context, a sour sweet of some kind.

    Used of a woman who is assertive and does not defer to masculine self-importance. Ditto Unionist self-importance. It is highly misogynistic.
    Squares with my own non-Caledonian, non-UKer perception.

    Wonder how many votes this witticism is worth . . . for Big Fish that is?
  • Heathener said:

    Thanks for posting this.

    Does anyone please have the link to, was it Nick Palmer(?) with his breakdown of where he thought everyone was at
    You probably mean @AlastairMeeks, former PBer.

    Links to his spreadsheet inside this article:-

    Every Conservative MP’s position on Boris Johnson and the parties in Number 10
    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/every-conservative-mps-position-on-boris-johnson-and-the-parties-in-number-10-bc4f5f77032f
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Heathener said:

    Thanks for posting this.

    Does anyone please have the link to, was it Nick Palmer(?) with his breakdown of where he thought everyone was at
    Bumping this. Please please please: anyone? There was a great, more anecdotal more observational analysis of which column the various MPs are in.

    Was it Nick? Or was it Alastair Meeks? It was posted on here about 10 days ago iirc and I forgot to bookmark it.

    Was really useful.
  • Andy can stop sweating.


  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Carnyx said:

    Jusdt turn round and put your fingers in your ears/noise-cancelling earphones (whichever you prefer).
    That's exactly what I did. I had my MP3 player with headphones on but I could still hear her in the gaps between the songs that was enough to trigger me.
  • TOPPING said:

    Yeah apart from the self-isolation and allowing the MoL to keep them on his transport systems.
    The MoL has the right to decide any conditions on Public Transport. Conditions of Carriage. Same as any private carrier as well. It has nothing to do with Government policy or regulation.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited February 2022

    You probably mean @AlastairMeeks, former PBer.

    Links to his spreadsheet inside this article:-

    Every Conservative MP’s position on Boris Johnson and the parties in Number 10
    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/every-conservative-mps-position-on-boris-johnson-and-the-parties-in-number-10-bc4f5f77032f
    Fantastic. Thank you so much. It's really useful, especially to set alongside this new spreadsheet.

    Many thanks.

    p.s. He has put in so much work on this!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,074
    TOPPING said:

    I think we discussed this during the first Covid sell off. Sure (equity) markets are overpriced and valuations bonkers. But. There is nowhere else for the money to go. Let's say you sell out of equities. Now what. Rates are rising but to what, 1-2%? Look at inflation expectations.
    For the moment, the ‘now what’ appears to be to wait for a few days and then buy back in.

    The problem will arise when people stop doing that.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Farooq said:

    The BBC and STV have a pro-SNP bias. And the electoral commission. And your ex!
    Goodness, this conspiracy goes deep. Before long it'll just be you and Murdo left.
    My ex is firmly Anti-SNP type - she just wanted to follow the Covid rules.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Squares with my own non-Caledonian, non-UKer perception.

    Wonder how many votes this witticism is worth . . . for Big Fish that is?
    The alleged justification is that it is actually her own childhood nickname
  • The only restriction remaining until March is the need to isolate if you actually test positive. All the rest were lifted already. And even Denmark (like England) are retaining some minor restrictions such as the requirement to wear masks in hospitals and care homes.
    Edit - and checking the rules on self isolation still also apply in Denmark to anyone testing positive. Indeed it looks like the rules are now identical in both England and Denmark.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    IshmaelZ said:

    This Germaine Greer?

    “Just because you lop off your d**k and then wear a dress doesn’t make you a f***ing woman.

    “I’ve asked my doctor to give me long ears and liver spots and I’m going to wear a brown coat but that doesn’t turn me into a f***ing cocker spaniel.

    “A man who gets his d**k chopped off is actually inflicting an extraordinary act of violence on himself.”
    Yes
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,074
    Heathener said:

    Thanks for posting this.

    Does anyone please have the link to, was it Nick Palmer(?) with his breakdown of where he thought everyone was at
    I see HY’s hero IDS is in the ‘suspected’ column; the evidence in the associated link is a tad thin.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Because the English are such shits. Your final sentence sounds so reasonable nobody could possibly object to it, but it cashes out as Ian Huntley considering transitioning a year or two ago, and a bunch of dickless "activists" screeching transphobe at me for having the bad taste to mention the fact.
    The story about Huntley transitioning was fake tabloid bollocks.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/media/ian-huntley-transgender-claims-apology-daily-star-257028
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672
    JBriskin3 said:

    I think the key fact from the spreadsheet at this point is-

    Confirmed + Suspected 74.3% (of 54 letters)
    I think that it's got to the point that one high-profile resignation would tip the scales, but in its absence they'll fall short.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,031

    I think that it's got to the point that one high-profile resignation would tip the scales, but in its absence they'll fall short.

    And if they don't resign, they are about to get reshuffled...
  • The story about Huntley transitioning was fake tabloid bollocks.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/media/ian-huntley-transgender-claims-apology-daily-star-257028
    Fake tabloid chopped off bollocks as it were.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,431
    Evening all :)

    The big news in my part of the world is the looming TfL financial crisis. Apparently, there is a £1.5 billion funding shortfall which in PPE and fraudulent furlough claims is a drop in the ocean but nonetheless unless the Government (or someone) puts up some money, the option to shut down lines (Bakerloo and the Drain being the obvious two) is being seriously considered.

    Tube passenger numbers remain at little more than half pre-Covid numbers during the week (better at weekends) but pictures of crowded tubes in the past couple of weeks don't tell the real story. The service has been none too subtly reduced - one evening there was an 8-minute gap at 5.30 on the District so not surprisingly the tube after that was busy but the following one (three minutes later) was much quieter.

    Khan seems to want to stand for re-election in 2024 (I'd have thought a good time for him to return to Westminster - it worked for Boris Johnson after all) and being the Mayor who oversaw the shutdown of the tube may not sit well but it's not as though anyone has come up with a practical alternative. The world of work has changed forever and operational financial models dependent on high levels of commuter income aren't going to work any longer.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The story about Huntley transitioning was fake tabloid bollocks.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/media/ian-huntley-transgender-claims-apology-daily-star-257028
    Nope. Plenty of stories dated after that retraction.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Jacob Rees-Mogg saying "well, it's a view". Eesh.
    JBriskin3 said:

    So Nippy had her mug on TV for a full year before a Scottish election and it was a Public Service?

    How kind of her.
    You are weirdly obsessed with her.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,096
    IanB2 said:

    The gyrations of the Dow suggest that a lot of people are poised to sell as soon as there’s a hint that real world news might trump the lack of alternative places to put your money. With the recovery indicating that there are still lots of people prepared to buy back on the dips.

    I think we are in for a rocky year.
    I think inflation and interest rates will both go up, and of course the Ukraine situation will be difficult, whatever else happens.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Jacob Rees-Mogg saying "well, it's a view". Eesh.

    You are weirdly obsessed with her.
    I try my best just to avoid her - but with so many SNP Types on PB I feel a moral duty to argue the case for the Union.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The big news in my part of the world is the looming TfL financial crisis. Apparently, there is a £1.5 billion funding shortfall which in PPE and fraudulent furlough claims is a drop in the ocean but nonetheless unless the Government (or someone) puts up some money, the option to shut down lines (Bakerloo and the Drain being the obvious two) is being seriously considered.

    Tube passenger numbers remain at little more than half pre-Covid numbers during the week (better at weekends) but pictures of crowded tubes in the past couple of weeks don't tell the real story. The service has been none too subtly reduced - one evening there was an 8-minute gap at 5.30 on the District so not surprisingly the tube after that was busy but the following one (three minutes later) was much quieter.

    Khan seems to want to stand for re-election in 2024 (I'd have thought a good time for him to return to Westminster - it worked for Boris Johnson after all) and being the Mayor who oversaw the shutdown of the tube may not sit well but it's not as though anyone has come up with a practical alternative. The world of work has changed forever and operational financial models dependent on high levels of commuter income aren't going to work any longer.

    Rotherhithe Tunnel facing permanent closure too. Perpetual gridlock for the City, Canary Wharf, Southwark and Greenwich amongst others.
  • kle4 said:

    I cannot say I've ever heard of Japs used as a racist epithet. It could be, same way paki definitely is (since it is used when people have no way of knowing if the target has anything to do with Pakistan for a start), but reference to the Japanese at all would probably be less common so I may have missed it.
    In USA use of "Japs" is considered highly offensive by 94.99% of Japanese Americans, and is avoided > eschewed > shunned by about same percent of the rest of us. In same category as "Chinks" for Chinese people.

    Think this STRONG feeling stems mainly from the habitual, indeed ubiquitous use of "Japs" during WW2 in American media. Which is evident in virtually every US newsreel, movie, radio recording, book, clipping, etc., etc. from 1940-45 with any mention of the war in the Pacific.

  • Surely time for a Dombox drop?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Foxy said:

    I think inflation and interest rates will both go up, and of course the Ukraine situation will be difficult, whatever else happens.
    Inflation will go up because the Bank of England didn't hike early enough.

    Their going to announce another hike (or not) at midday tomorrow.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,534
    Farooq said:

    The BBC and STV have a pro-SNP bias. And the electoral commission. And your ex!
    Goodness, this conspiracy goes deep. Before long it'll just be you and Murdo left.
    Not so sure about Murdo. Didn’t he want a separate Scottish Tory Party?
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The big news in my part of the world is the looming TfL financial crisis. Apparently, there is a £1.5 billion funding shortfall which in PPE and fraudulent furlough claims is a drop in the ocean but nonetheless unless the Government (or someone) puts up some money, the option to shut down lines (Bakerloo and the Drain being the obvious two) is being seriously considered.

    Tube passenger numbers remain at little more than half pre-Covid numbers during the week (better at weekends) but pictures of crowded tubes in the past couple of weeks don't tell the real story. The service has been none too subtly reduced - one evening there was an 8-minute gap at 5.30 on the District so not surprisingly the tube after that was busy but the following one (three minutes later) was much quieter.

    Khan seems to want to stand for re-election in 2024 (I'd have thought a good time for him to return to Westminster - it worked for Boris Johnson after all) and being the Mayor who oversaw the shutdown of the tube may not sit well but it's not as though anyone has come up with a practical alternative. The world of work has changed forever and operational financial models dependent on high levels of commuter income aren't going to work any longer.

    TfL were in serious financial trouble long before Covid appeared. According to their own figures in 2019 they had £11.6 billion of debt and an operating deficit of £500 million a year
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    PB is regressing on itself.

    Rotherhithe Tunnel facing permanent closure too. Perpetual gridlock for the City, Canary Wharf, Southwark and Greenwich amongst others.
    I got out just in time.
    Was clear this was coming.

    The Tories don’t care because it is Labour voting London.
This discussion has been closed.