On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I retired at 65 and was told by my colleagues that after a couple of weeks they'd see me back. I think I went back to do a couple of projects for a few weeks, then called that a day. I did, though, do a couple of projects for other people, on a very part-time basis, but then at 70 called it a day, professionally. What with insurance, and professional registration fees and assorted requirements it was too demanding. Mrs C and I did a few cricket tours, watching England, and of course spent some family time with grandchildren. As some were in Thailand we spent some time there, and used it as a base for travelling. We had some European holidays trips, too. Back home we both joined the u3a and took part in activities there. And we joined interest groups in the town to which we'd moved. It's been more difficult, travelling wise over the last few year, what with the pandemic and me getting somewhat less mobile, but we both use the internet and especially Zoom and FaceTime. And, of course, we read.
So I agree with Mr P; Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently if he's had t'internet!.
My mum died suddenly last Sunday aged 84, in poor health physically (confined to her house) but mentally still sharp.
Despite the restrictions of Covid, I think her past couple of years have been some of her happiest because of one thing: FaceTime.
She couldn't/wouldn't use a computer but we persuaded her to try an iPad for FaceTime and she got the hang of it and loved seeing and chatting to her grandchildren, who were good at calling her regularly. I was able to speak to her on it most days, too.
So thank-you Apple and the internet for that.
May I send you and your family deepest sympathy at the loss of your mother
It is good she was so happy notwithstanding covid, and it is grandchildren who provide so much joy for us as grandparents
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet
You might be based and pilled but you know nothing about the Greens. Our overwhelming desire is to be proved right. We know the planet can't be saved at this point.
The Greens are the most entryism resistant of all the parties. We are too diverse, ill-disciplined and, in many cases, utterly disconnected from mainstream political thought.
Also, a large proportion of the Corbynites are culturally working class who would be suspected of having only one type of vinegar in their kitchens. It just doesn't work.
Many greens seem utterly disconnected from reality though. Looking at the Scottish variant MSP's they are a bunch of crazy ne'er do wells, nutjobs and downright nasties. How anyone could vote for that bunch of losers is beyond me, they would struggle to spell Green to boot..
But it’s not insightful for the reasons the writer thinks
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Suspect they loved what Britain was, not the 2022 "fuck em" version". I don't like this version either, though that isn't so much Britain as England. There is a lot less "fuck em" up here.
And before anyone says "if you don't like it [England] you can fuck off", I already did...
They had an attachment to a romanticised version of Britain. Pretty similar to the hardcore brexiteers.
Most remainers and brexiteers are pretty normal people with normal lives just getting in with it. It is this hardcore of obsessives either side that keep banging on.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
My wife is an EU citizen and hasn't left. We are both deeply nostalgic for pre Brexit Britain. I suppose the nostalgia we feel is similar to that felt by Brexit voters in 2016, who hoped for a return of the pre mass immigration era. But the reality is that both worlds have passed. They are gone forever and aren't coming back. We have to make what we can of the new reality.
I think that is a realistic approach. The reality is that we will still have much higher immigration than many wanted because our economy has been fed a diet of unlimited labour for a long time and is addicted to it. The change towards higher productivity, better training, more capital investment, better wages etc will not happen overnight and possibly not even at all unless we prioritise it. We really need to focus on seeking to change these things, however we voted.
Agreed - the question is how. A starter for 10 - how do we grow productivity to drive real growth in the economy when we have just made trade difficult and goods more expensive than they need to be? Whatever efficiencies we can try to gain from productivity get more than offset in the loss of output from lower trade and higher costs.
This is why this Brexiteer keeps banging on about Boris's Border Operating Model not working. Aside from a few nutters nobody voted for Brexit because they wanted to be worse off. And yet worse off they are being made because your government are stupid and certain people provide them succour for stupid.
That is the fundamental flaw of Brexitism, which is heading to the end of its first lost decade, with no structural change happening to address the issues that drove it.
In part the reason for stagnant productivity is due to the stage of our post-manufacturing economy. In part due to poor skills, in part due to poor demographics, particularly in some regions. It simply isn't a problem that Brexit can fix. At best a distraction, and at worse an obstacle.
It's actually worse than displacement activity and a continuation of the neglect of the real issues. A refusal to face up to the facts of Brexit means people chasing chimeras that do actual damage above and beyond the damage of Brexit itself.
On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
The big difference between Batley & Spen and Southend West is that this is a government party defence at a time when the PM has dire ratings.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Fine by me. The longer Johnson lasts the deeper the hole the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party finds itself in. And the harder it becomes for Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats to ally themselves with thoroughly discredited ‘Muscular Unionism’.
However, I do feel sorry for the mainland Europeans being used as pawns in the British state’s transparent Divide & Rule modus operandi. Luckily, the big boys in the room, the EU and the USA, see the self-wounded beast as a shadow of what it once was.
Whilst inevitably you view all this through the lens of independence, you’re unfair and short sighted.
You’re unfair because it is unreasonable to tarnish unionists with the same brush as Boris. You may like to discredit unionists generally in the game of politics, but Boris is out on his own now. On the whole unionists, are decent people you just happen to disagree with on a point you care about. Boris isn’t decent.
If you think you can escape all this madness and problems this man in number 10 through independence you’re sadly mistaken. Having a this sort of untrustworthy government in England will make an independent Scotlands life very difficult. You will just be even less able to influence it. Much as Brexit has left the U.K. with less influence.
That’s not an argument against independence, just a assertion that there is work to be done you cannot escape and to claim that Boris is somehow representative of England or Unionism will shoot yourself in the foot.
I disagree. I think I’m reasonably fair, and I’m definitely not short sighted. The road to independence is a marathon, not a 60 yard dash. We understand that, Unionists rarely do.
It is perfectly fair to tarnish all Unionists with the same brush as their chosen leaders. If they’re daft enough to pick Johnson et al as their leaders then they deserve the opprobrium they garner. If you think all Unionists are “decent people” then you ought to attend a few of their marches. Don’t bring the bairns!
Of course it would be better for England and all of her neighbours if England had a sane, competent and non-corrupt government, but life goes on in France, Flanders, the Netherlands , Scotland, Ireland and Wales even as England implodes. We do feel sorry for you, but like an alcoholic, at the end of the day only the English can save themselves.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
That's not a flaw.
That is very kind of you @kinabalu but I think it is. Someone has to take responsibility and I am leaving it to others to do that on my behalf.
In my more sombre moments I reflect on if my own general passivity in all things is a flaw, at least to the level I take it. I don't think eschewing such responsibility is at that point, but it makes me wonder.
If there's one thing about old age it's that you can't go on fighting all the battles all the time.
I'll take your word for it, though at 35 I think I should have fought a few more battles than I have thus far!
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Wait, you're the guy whose MO is to regularly shriek about the end of Western civilisation.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
That's not a flaw.
That is very kind of you @kinabalu but I think it is. Someone has to take responsibility and I am leaving it to others to do that on my behalf.
In my more sombre moments I reflect on if my own general passivity in all things is a flaw, at least to the level I take it. I don't think eschewing such responsibility is at that point, but it makes me wonder.
I console myself that I do, and have always, campaigned on various injustices, sometimes at the cost of my mental health, but I do think I am a coward on not being able to confront or decide on stuff that could be life changing for specific individuals rather than anonymous groups.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet
You might be based and pilled but you know nothing about the Greens. Our overwhelming desire is to be proved right. We know the planet can't be saved at this point.
The Greens are the most entryism resistant of all the parties. We are too diverse, ill-disciplined and, in many cases, utterly disconnected from mainstream political thought.
Also, a large proportion of the Corbynites are culturally working class who would be suspected of having only one type of vinegar in their kitchens. It just doesn't work.
Many greens seem utterly disconnected from reality though. Looking at the Scottish variant MSP's they are a bunch of crazy ne'er do wells, nutjobs and downright nasties. How anyone could vote for that bunch of losers is beyond me, they would struggle to spell Green to boot..
And your solution is to vote for [checks notes] Salmond?
On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
The big difference between Batley & Spen and Southend West is that this is a government party defence at a time when the PM has dire ratings.
Fair. I've not majored on it being the government rather than the opposition, but I think the GE votes retention estimate of sub 50% for the Tories here as opposed to 80% for Labour in 2016 does reflect that.
On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
The big difference between Batley & Spen and Southend West is that this is a government party defence at a time when the PM has dire ratings.
I suspect the Tories will win but on a very low turnout, which could even fall below 20%. Anti immigration voters are more likely to turn out at the moment to send a protest vote message by voting UKIP over channel crossings than Tories are to vote in a by election the Tories will almost certainly win anyway while Labour and LD voters are unlikely to turn out to vote for the party of a government they currently despise even if they have no Labour or LD candidate to vote for.
So yes, UKIP could get about 30% of the vote on Thursday
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
Yes, I shall give up medicine when I hit State Pension age (67 in my case). It does need active preparation to have a sufficient range of activities to stimulate the brain afterwards. I will read and garden more, but that cannot fill a whole day.
A daily prescription of PB will cure what might ail you. Just beware of overdosing.
Day 3 of isolation, and feeling rather rough. Headache mostly today, but general fatigue, and some cough. O2 sats still good. Mostly bored today, not feeling up to a long read. Dog a bit bouncy and not understanding why I am at home, but not walking him.
Not retirement of course, but boring.
I'm on day 2 of isolation. I feel as if someone has sprayed white pepper up my nose, into my eyes and onto my throat.
I can move my O2 reading anywhere between 91 and 97 depending how I breathe!
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson The Covid inquiry should establish how such deeply misleading and wildly wrong Sage graphs were presented to ministers and the public - esp when accurate models were available.
Risk is that by crying wolf now, Sage won’t be heeded next time
Indefensibly, Sage modellers are under no obligation to publish their code (or data). This impedes scrutiny & makes error correction less likely: a recipe for blunders.
Modelling matters. The Omicron debacle is rich in lessons for what not to do next time
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I started my research career as a summer intern in a fairly new lab in the university. We'd taken over the lab space of a professor who'd just retired.
Within three weeks, he was back, working with me on things he'd never had the time to look at when he had been a professor. We made a travelling wave reaction that produced a red line moving down a clear colourless solution. He literally skipped with joy. He moved around labs, working on stuff he found curious and interesting.
Just looked and his last paper was 2010 and he's still listed on teaching staff.
EXTRA: Went down a rabbit hole and found I've a direct link of supervisors all the way back to people like Fritz Haber. Which is nice.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
I cannot say I find that very persuasive. You seem to be going 'I cannot be certain my corner of Scotland is representative but based on politics I think it may be, and I cannot be certain the corners of England I've lived are representative, but based on politics I am 100% certain it is'.
I just don't see how you make sweeping generalisations about 'national pscyhe' with such certainty
I honestly have no idea how welcoming either place is. And on a couple of big political questions the two are certainly divided. But are we really that different? Given the, I think likely, argument about how similar most of W Europe at the least is on key questions, it just is not probable to me there are such stark divisions on what boils down to a feeling of how 'nice' they each are.
I certainly think such broad brush condemnations and praise based on nothing but localised gut feel is unrealistic and unfair.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Yes, the multiculti and hyper-tolerant Mr Pioneers has, oddly, moved from one of the most racially diverse parts of the UK to probably the whitest part of the UK, an area which he thoroughly prefers, as it is supposedly more “welcoming” to others. There just aren’t any others being welcomed
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Unlikely, Scotland would become like Sweden, generally voting in social democratic governments like now, whether SNP or Labour. Only way the Conservatives would get in is with a broad alliance with the Liberals as in Sweden
Mmm, I see. I think voting Tory in Southend W won't be interpreted as a vote of confidence in British Afghanistan policy, though - just a message to murderers not to bother, you just get another MP with similar views.
The thing about this theory is that it assumes that the motive of an MP-murderer is to try to shift the balance of the Commons -- which to my mind seems absolutely absurd. On any of the more plausible theories of what drives such people (wanting publicity, mental illness, personal grudge against that specific politician, intimidate public figures into not speaking out on an issue) the details of who might be voted in as their replacement don't figure into it at all. Any "message sending" along those lines is completely misdirected.
(Personally I think we should treat this kind of by-election like any other where for instance the sitting MP died of a heart attack -- you could make a case there too if you liked that the MP should be replaced by one of the same party. AIUI some elected positions in the US work like that, with a replacement selected by a governor or similar figure to serve until the next scheduled election.)
Yes, I see what you mean, though I think that if another party took the seat it might "encourage" other loonies. There's an element of political solidarity between politicians operating here - I don't want to benefit from someone assassinating a colleague, however much we may have disagreed, and that's more important to me than any tactical advantage in winning a by-election.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
I cannot say I find that very persuasive. You seem to be going 'I cannot be certain my corner of Scotland is representative but based on politics I think it may be, and I cannot be certain the corners of England I've lived are representative, but based on politics I am 100% certain it is'.
I just don't see how you make sweeping generalisations about 'national pscyhe' with such certainty
I honestly have no idea how welcoming either place is. And on a couple of big political questions the two are certainly divided. But are we really that different? Given the, I think likely, argument about how similar most of W Europe at the least is on key questions, it just is not probable to me there are such stark divisions on what boils down to a feeling of how 'nice' they each are.
I certainly think such broad brush condemnations and praise based on nothing but localised gut feel is unrealistic and unfair.
The Nasty racist England they describe of course has triple the ethnic diversity of Scotland. And the nasty racist turn it has taken coincides with a big increase in that diversity.
And the solution they've taken is to flee to a massively less diverse country and talk about how wonderfully welcoming it is.
What I find offensive about the UKIP Southend West flyer featured above is how BAD the English is. "A patriotic candidate that will tackle immigration." Surely that should be WHO?
On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
The big difference between Batley & Spen and Southend West is that this is a government party defence at a time when the PM has dire ratings.
I suspect the Tories will win but on a very low turnout, which could even fall below 20%. Anti immigration voters are more likely to turn out at the moment to send a protest vote message by voting UKIP over channel crossings than Tories are to vote in a by election the Tories will almost certainly win anyway while Labour and LD voters are unlikely to turn out to vote for the party of a government they currently despise even if they have no Labour or LD candidate to vote for.
So yes, UKIP could get about 30% of the vote on Thursday
On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
The big difference between Batley & Spen and Southend West is that this is a government party defence at a time when the PM has dire ratings.
I suspect the Tories will win but on a very low turnout, which could even fall below 20%. Anti immigration voters are more likely to turn out at the moment to send a protest vote message by voting UKIP over channel crossings than Tories are to vote in a by election the Tories will almost certainly win anyway while Labour and LD voters are unlikely to turn out to vote for the party of a government they currently despise even if they have no Labour or LD candidate to vote for.
So yes, UKIP could get about 30% of the vote on Thursday
You call yourself a serious political commentator
20% turnout and 30% UKIP
There is no Labour or LD candidate, so yes 20% turnout is realistic as most Labour and LD voters will not bother to vote and nor will many Tories at the moment as it is a by election the Tories will almost certainly win anyway. UKIP are the main challengers to the Tories and the government is unpopular and Southend was strong Leave and UKIP got 17% there as recently as 2015, so 30% for UKIP is realistic
Mmm, I see. I think voting Tory in Southend W won't be interpreted as a vote of confidence in British Afghanistan policy, though - just a message to murderers not to bother, you just get another MP with similar views.
The thing about this theory is that it assumes that the motive of an MP-murderer is to try to shift the balance of the Commons -- which to my mind seems absolutely absurd. On any of the more plausible theories of what drives such people (wanting publicity, mental illness, personal grudge against that specific politician, intimidate public figures into not speaking out on an issue) the details of who might be voted in as their replacement don't figure into it at all. Any "message sending" along those lines is completely misdirected.
(Personally I think we should treat this kind of by-election like any other where for instance the sitting MP died of a heart attack -- you could make a case there too if you liked that the MP should be replaced by one of the same party. AIUI some elected positions in the US work like that, with a replacement selected by a governor or similar figure to serve until the next scheduled election.)
Yes, I see what you mean, though I think that if another party took the seat it might "encourage" other loonies. There's an element of political solidarity between politicians operating here - I don't want to benefit from someone assassinating a colleague, however much we may have disagreed, and that's more important to me than any tactical advantage in winning a by-election.
It would be an hilarious unintended consequence if UKIP got in as a result of all this, and an illustration of how all this mimsy sentimentality undermines democracy.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
What I find offensive about the UKIP Southend West flyer featured above is how BAD the English is. "A patriotic candidate that will tackle immigration." Surely that should be WHO?
Perhaps he's one of those AI bots that Leon was extolling, so good that one can't tell the difference from a human (especially a UKIP human)?
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
And every week that goes by by the Corruption Party in government and apparent collusion by the police and the powers that be, the more likely it is that independence will happen. For all that Blackford and the SNP call for Liar to go they really want him to stay as it is self evident to all bar a few on here the damage that the government are doing to the Union.
In fairness, I cannot think of a single PB poster who tries to contend that BJ is actually beneficial for the Union. Blocking IndyRef2 and making the Union more popular/less unpopular are not the same thing at all. The second is far harder, and BJ is simply too lazy.
I don't think it's because he's too lazy, I think it's because he doesn't care. The object of stonewalling over a second referendum in Scotland isn't either to do what is best for Scotland, or to protect the Union and safeguard its future per se, it's to prevent the collapse from happening on his watch. Johnson conceives of himself as a man of destiny who wishes to be remembered as such; the end of Britain isn't something he wants to have on his CV. It doesn't matter one iota to the man when it happens, just so long as it's on somebody else's watch.
Whilst we're on the general topic, I don't buy HY's contention that the second referendum is contingent upon a Labour minority propped up by the SNP, either. The political positioning of the latter is such that they have no leverage - not supporting a Labour Prime Minister effectively means aligning with the hated Tories by default - and Starmer has no interest in granting a vote on independence either, since losing it would clear a large bloc of centre-left MPs out of the Commons and leave the Conservatives permanently strengthened.
The removal of Stonewall Johnson is, therefore, a necessary precursor to a rematch of 2014, but not the only one. Starmer can resist just as effectively so long as the Scottish electorate remains divided both on the merits of such a vote and its timing. Voting SNP (or Green) and demanding another referendum are not the same thing; there will be real progress toward the latter only when a majority of Scottish public opinion coalesces behind the proposition that it should happen soon. At that point, a leadership in London that has some sense of propriety will have to yield, but not before.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Fine by me. The longer Johnson lasts the deeper the hole the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party finds itself in. And the harder it becomes for Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats to ally themselves with thoroughly discredited ‘Muscular Unionism’.
However, I do feel sorry for the mainland Europeans being used as pawns in the British state’s transparent Divide & Rule modus operandi. Luckily, the big boys in the room, the EU and the USA, see the self-wounded beast as a shadow of what it once was.
Whilst inevitably you view all this through the lens of independence, you’re unfair and short sighted.
You’re unfair because it is unreasonable to tarnish unionists with the same brush as Boris. You may like to discredit unionists generally in the game of politics, but Boris is out on his own now. On the whole unionists, are decent people you just happen to disagree with on a point you care about. Boris isn’t decent.
If you think you can escape all this madness and problems this man in number 10 through independence you’re sadly mistaken. Having a this sort of untrustworthy government in England will make an independent Scotlands life very difficult. You will just be even less able to influence it. Much as Brexit has left the U.K. with less influence.
That’s not an argument against independence, just a assertion that there is work to be done you cannot escape and to claim that Boris is somehow representative of England or Unionism will shoot yourself in the foot.
I disagree. I think I’m reasonably fair, and I’m definitely not short sighted. The road to independence is a marathon, not a 60 yard dash. We understand that, Unionists rarely do.
It is perfectly fair to tarnish all Unionists with the same brush as their chosen leaders. If they’re daft enough to pick Johnson et al as their leaders then they deserve the opprobrium they garner. If you think all Unionists are “decent people” then you ought to attend a few of their marches. Don’t bring the bairns!
Of course it would be better for England and all of her neighbours if England had a sane, competent and non-corrupt government, but life goes on in France, Flanders, the Netherlands , Scotland, Ireland and Wales even as England implodes. We do feel sorry for you, but like an alcoholic, at the end of the day only the English can save themselves.
Some marathon.
It was active in the mid fifties when I lived in Berwick-upon-Tweed, near 70 years ago
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
Yes, I shall give up medicine when I hit State Pension age (67 in my case). It does need active preparation to have a sufficient range of activities to stimulate the brain afterwards. I will read and garden more, but that cannot fill a whole day.
A daily prescription of PB will cure what might ail you. Just beware of overdosing.
Day 3 of isolation, and feeling rather rough. Headache mostly today, but general fatigue, and some cough. O2 sats still good. Mostly bored today, not feeling up to a long read. Dog a bit bouncy and not understanding why I am at home, but not walking him.
Not retirement of course, but boring.
I'm on day 2 of isolation. I feel as if someone has sprayed white pepper up my nose, into my eyes and onto my throat.
I can move my O2 reading anywhere between 91 and 97 depending how I breathe!
Yes, sounds familiar, though Foxjr2 is back to normal in London. He was quite poorly in the week.
Omicron is a pretty miserable thing to have. My pulse up with minimal exertion, chest is a bit tight, but the headache and brain fog are the worst today.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Fine by me. The longer Johnson lasts the deeper the hole the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party finds itself in. And the harder it becomes for Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats to ally themselves with thoroughly discredited ‘Muscular Unionism’.
However, I do feel sorry for the mainland Europeans being used as pawns in the British state’s transparent Divide & Rule modus operandi. Luckily, the big boys in the room, the EU and the USA, see the self-wounded beast as a shadow of what it once was.
Whilst inevitably you view all this through the lens of independence, you’re unfair and short sighted.
You’re unfair because it is unreasonable to tarnish unionists with the same brush as Boris. You may like to discredit unionists generally in the game of politics, but Boris is out on his own now. On the whole unionists, are decent people you just happen to disagree with on a point you care about. Boris isn’t decent.
If you think you can escape all this madness and problems this man in number 10 through independence you’re sadly mistaken. Having a this sort of untrustworthy government in England will make an independent Scotlands life very difficult. You will just be even less able to influence it. Much as Brexit has left the U.K. with less influence.
That’s not an argument against independence, just a assertion that there is work to be done you cannot escape and to claim that Boris is somehow representative of England or Unionism will shoot yourself in the foot.
I disagree. I think I’m reasonably fair, and I’m definitely not short sighted. The road to independence is a marathon, not a 60 yard dash. We understand that, Unionists rarely do.
It is perfectly fair to tarnish all Unionists with the same brush as their chosen leaders. If they’re daft enough to pick Johnson et al as their leaders then they deserve the opprobrium they garner. If you think all Unionists are “decent people” then you ought to attend a few of their marches. Don’t bring the bairns!
Of course it would be better for England and all of her neighbours if England had a sane, competent and non-corrupt government, but life goes on in France, Flanders, the Netherlands , Scotland, Ireland and Wales even as England implodes. We do feel sorry for you, but like an alcoholic, at the end of the day only the English can save themselves.
Johnson only rose to power because the Labour membership were daft enough to think Jeremy Corbyn was up to leading the Labour Party. And I don't think the union and England should be condemned because of the stupidity of 250,000 naive Labour members.
What I find offensive about the UKIP Southend West flyer featured above is how BAD the English is. "A patriotic candidate that will tackle immigration." Surely that should be WHO?
Looking at him, if I were meeting him in a car park I would make sure someone knew I was doing so, and leave my wallet and watch behind
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
well. QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
well. QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
I'm genuinely staggered it's still not considered relevant now. The total lack of interest in an obvious massive story is really disgraceful from the 'serious' press.
What I find offensive about the UKIP Southend West flyer featured above is how BAD the English is. "A patriotic candidate that will tackle immigration." Surely that should be WHO?
Looking at him, if I were meeting him in a car park I would make sure someone knew I was doing so, and leave my wallet and watch behind
He looks like he’s been three days without even a tenbag of smack and is trying to pretend it’s all OK
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Unlikely, Scotland would become like Sweden, generally voting in social democratic governments like now, whether SNP or Labour. Only way the Conservatives would get in is with a broad alliance with the Liberals as in Sweden
Excuse me but you have no idea what the Scots would do post independence and away from Boris and Westminster
Someday Sturgeon and the SNP will have run their course and a Scon government is not at all impossible
They find nearly three times as many voters switching from the Tories to the Greens (11) than to Reform (4).
15% of Conservative 2019 voters say they will now vote Labour, compared to 9% now saying Lib Dem and only 11% saying undecided/would not vote/refused.
In a reversal of what I think of as a normal split, the Tories are way behind with men 43% - 26%, but nearly level with women 37% - 36%.
And, to top it all off, the Scottish subsample will probably have Stuart Dickson agreeing with OGH that looking at Scottish subsamples is a fool's errand...(!)
Looks rubbish given the latest Yougov has 5% of 2019 Tories still going RefUK and just 1% going Green
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
David Waddington supported the death penalty. I used to work with his niece and even she didn't like him!
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
My colleagues who have come up from England sound very similar, though they at least live in the cosmopolitan Edinburgh. It's the Orwellian anti-patriotism thing - one of the most interesting bits of the English psyche.
Any Scot who visits London is quickly reminded of just how much more vibrant and diverse a city it is. Edinburgh only matches it in August.
Scotland 91.9% white England 79.8% London 44.9%
Long term, this is a massive problem for Scotland. The mass immigration of the 2000s just didn't occur on the same scale and the latest NRS projections (published 2 weeks ago) are genuinely frightening.
By 2045, the 76+ population will increase by 68%, while the under 15 population will decrease by 22%.
I'd probably emigrate of we went independent. It's my salary they'll come after.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Or they take over the Greens, as mentioned below.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
The Greens though have a very different vibe, from light green recyclers to dark green eco-anarchists. Few are interested in traditional left wing structures and parties, indeed that is the reason they formed the party.
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet in whichever form and that trumps everything. Hence why they remain a niche party despite their European counterparts advancing, because they refuse to be pragmatic. If the Corbynites came to them and said “we can get you to your goal if we join forces”, I suspect many would go along with it and turn a blind eye to the other excesses.
The Green Party spends too much time wibbling on about woke shite as it is.
They need to be much more focused on the natural world, not fecking pronouns.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Unlikely, Scotland would become like Sweden, generally voting in social democratic governments like now, whether SNP or Labour. Only way the Conservatives would get in is with a broad alliance with the Liberals as in Sweden
Excuse me but you have no idea what the Scots would do post independence and away from Boris and Westminster
Someday Sturgeon and the SNP will have run their course and a Scon government is not at all impossible
An independent Scotland would be one of the most leftwing nations in the world. A centre right party might get about 30% on a good day, that is it. It would need the Liberals to ever form a government.
According to a survey by the research organization NORC, 44 percent of crypto investors are nonwhite, and 55 percent don’t have a college degree. This matches up with anecdotal evidence that crypto investing has become remarkably popular among minority groups and the working class.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
My colleagues who have come up from England sound very similar, though they at least live in the cosmopolitan Edinburgh. It's the Orwellian anti-patriotism thing - one of the most interesting bits of the English psyche.
Any Scot who visits London is quickly reminded of just how much more vibrant and diverse a city it is. Edinburgh only matches it in August.
Scotland 91.9% white England 79.8% London 44.9%
Long term, this is a massive problem for Scotland. The mass immigration of the 2000s just didn't occur on the same scale and the latest NRS projections (published 2 weeks ago) are genuinely frightening.
By 2045, the 76+ population will increase by 68%, while the under 15 population will decrease by 22%.
I'd probably emigrate of we went independent. It's my salary they'll come after.
I am guessing that if you went to Rochdale you'd be a bit less confident of the strength of the diversity vibrancy correlation
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Unlikely, Scotland would become like Sweden, generally voting in social democratic governments like now, whether SNP or Labour. Only way the Conservatives would get in is with a broad alliance with the Liberals as in Sweden
Excuse me but you have no idea what the Scots would do post independence and away from Boris and Westminster
Someday Sturgeon and the SNP will have run their course and a Scon government is not at all impossible
An independent Scotland would be one of the most leftwing nations in the world. A centre right party might get about 30% on a good day, that is it. It would need the Liberals to ever form a government.
Scotland is only marginally more left wing than England. The SNP soak up a lot of @malcolmg types, so obscure the number of right wingers.
And centre-right is relative. The Tories are nearer US Dems than GOP nowadays.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Or they take over the Greens, as mentioned below.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
The Greens though have a very different vibe, from light green recyclers to dark green eco-anarchists. Few are interested in traditional left wing structures and parties, indeed that is the reason they formed the party.
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet in whichever form and that trumps everything. Hence why they remain a niche party despite their European counterparts advancing, because they refuse to be pragmatic. If the Corbynites came to them and said “we can get you to your goal if we join forces”, I suspect many would go along with it and turn a blind eye to the other excesses.
The Green Party spends too much time wibbling on about woke shite as it is.
They need to be much more focused on the natural world, not fecking pronouns.
Funnily enough, I think the Corbynites would give them that, at least in the sense of how to get more power. Corbyn’s mob aren’t that interested in the pronoun stuff anyway, it’s just a means to an end.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
well. QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
Jeez, you two will soon be accused of being part of the Trumpist conspiracy plot 😀
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Yes, the multiculti and hyper-tolerant Mr Pioneers has, oddly, moved from one of the most racially diverse parts of the UK to probably the whitest part of the UK, an area which he thoroughly prefers, as it is supposedly more “welcoming” to others. There just aren’t any others being welcomed
Strange
This is a familiar phenomenon in many white liberal enclaves, scattered around the UK. It is not by any means limited to Scotland. I live in one. The demographics are closer to 1950s England, with non white people being very much the exception. The incomers pushing up house prices are wealthy white people, but they are typically woke in their politics; setting up things like a "womxn's theatre group" and having marches to welcome in refugees. It is a very curious thing.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Sometimes, when hardcore remainers mock brexit voters, saying that brexit will mean more brown and black immigrants, which they claim brexit voters don’t want, I wonder if perhaps those hardcore remainers quite liked that freedom of movement ensured that most immigrants were white, european, and christian. Different and exotic, but not actually brown or muslim.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
But will not be for much longer once DUP ministers ban checks on goods going to and from NI and GB which Truss will not oppose
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Unlikely, Scotland would become like Sweden, generally voting in social democratic governments like now, whether SNP or Labour. Only way the Conservatives would get in is with a broad alliance with the Liberals as in Sweden
Excuse me but you have no idea what the Scots would do post independence and away from Boris and Westminster
Someday Sturgeon and the SNP will have run their course and a Scon government is not at all impossible
An independent Scotland would be one of the most leftwing nations in the world. A centre right party might get about 30% on a good day, that is it. It would need the Liberals to ever form a government.
Scotland is only marginally more left wing than England. The SNP soak up a lot of @malcolmg types, so obscure the number of right wingers.
And centre-right is relative. The Tories are nearer US Dems than GOP nowadays.
Too busy -greenhouse to repair from wind damage - to do more than drop in for a moment - but amused how PBTories half the time claim that Scots are as rightwing and racist (or not) as other parts of the UK, [edit] so the prospects for Scons rule etc are bright, and half the time claim that they are a bunch of irredeemable lefties sui generis ...
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Sometimes, when hardcore remainers mock brexit voters, saying that brexit will mean more brown and black immigrants, which they claim brexit voters don’t want, I wonder if perhaps those hardcore remainers quite liked that freedom of movement ensured that most immigrants were white, european, and christian. Different and exotic, but not actually brown or muslim.
But this may be too cynical, even for me.
I think some of them thought Leavers couldn’t tell the difference between an Indian with a Phd and a Romanian Big Issue seller. And of course a “Polish Plumber” was a boon to some and not to others.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Unlikely, Scotland would become like Sweden, generally voting in social democratic governments like now, whether SNP or Labour. Only way the Conservatives would get in is with a broad alliance with the Liberals as in Sweden
Excuse me but you have no idea what the Scots would do post independence and away from Boris and Westminster
Someday Sturgeon and the SNP will have run their course and a Scon government is not at all impossible
An independent Scotland would be one of the most leftwing nations in the world. A centre right party might get about 30% on a good day, that is it. It would need the Liberals to ever form a government.
Scotland is only marginally more left wing than England. The SNP soak up a lot of @malcolmg types, so obscure the number of right wingers.
And centre-right is relative. The Tories are nearer US Dems than GOP nowadays.
Too busy -greenhouse to repair from wind damage - to do more than drop in for a moment - but amused how PBTories half the time claim that Scots are as rightwing and racist (or not) as other parts of the UK, [edit] so the prospects for Scons rule etc are bright, and half the time claim that they are a bunch of irredeemable lefties sui generis ...
Careful your straw men don’t blow away in the wind!
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Yes, the multiculti and hyper-tolerant Mr Pioneers has, oddly, moved from one of the most racially diverse parts of the UK to probably the whitest part of the UK, an area which he thoroughly prefers, as it is supposedly more “welcoming” to others. There just aren’t any others being welcomed
Strange
This is a familiar phenomenon in many white liberal enclaves, scattered around the UK. It is not by any means limited to Scotland. I live in one. The demographics are closer to 1950s England, with non white people being very much the exception. The incomers pushing up house prices are wealthy white people, but they are typically woke in their politics; setting up things like a "womxn's theatre group" and having marches to welcome in refugees. It is a very curious thing.
"Refugees Welcome," just so long as they're all sent to live in poor people places where we never actually have to meet them.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
well. QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
I'm genuinely staggered it's still not considered relevant now. The total lack of interest in an obvious massive story is really disgraceful from the 'serious' press.
It's true for a number of stories. Time magazine did a whole, gloatingly toned, piece about the measures used to 'fortify' 2020.
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I retired at 65 and was told by my colleagues that after a couple of weeks they'd see me back. I think I went back to do a couple of projects for a few weeks, then called that a day. I did, though, do a couple of projects for other people, on a very part-time basis, but then at 70 called it a day, professionally. What with insurance, and professional registration fees and assorted requirements it was too demanding. Mrs C and I did a few cricket tours, watching England, and of course spent some family time with grandchildren. As some were in Thailand we spent some time there, and used it as a base for travelling. We had some European holidays trips, too. Back home we both joined the u3a and took part in activities there. And we joined interest groups in the town to which we'd moved. It's been more difficult, travelling wise over the last few year, what with the pandemic and me getting somewhat less mobile, but we both use the internet and especially Zoom and FaceTime. And, of course, we read.
So I agree with Mr P; Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently if he's had t'internet!.
My mum died suddenly last Sunday aged 84, in poor health physically (confined to her house) but mentally still sharp.
Despite the restrictions of Covid, I think her past couple of years have been some of her happiest because of one thing: FaceTime.
She couldn't/wouldn't use a computer but we persuaded her to try an iPad for FaceTime and she got the hang of it and loved seeing and chatting to her grandchildren, who were good at calling her regularly. I was able to speak to her on it most days, too.
So thank-you Apple and the internet for that.
May I send you and your family deepest sympathy at the loss of your mother
It is good she was so happy notwithstanding covid, and it is grandchildren who provide so much joy for us as grandparents
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Sometimes, when hardcore remainers mock brexit voters, saying that brexit will mean more brown and black immigrants, which they claim brexit voters don’t want, I wonder if perhaps those hardcore remainers quite liked that freedom of movement ensured that most immigrants were white, european, and christian. Different and exotic, but not actually brown or muslim.
But this may be too cynical, even for me.
I think some of them thought Leavers couldn’t tell the difference between an Indian with a Phd and a Romanian Big Issue seller. And of course a “Polish Plumber” was a boon to some and not to others.
It’s funny how many of the most ardent Remainers were also keen on cheap Labour coming in but seemed to be far less keen on allowing opening up the borders when it came to professional services such as the Law…
Ross County v Rangers is live on Sky and looks windy
Evidently they're getting hit worse up North today, but it's been less than tranquil down here as well. Running uphill into something that felt like a gale this morning was somewhat challenging.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
well. QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
I'm genuinely staggered it's still not considered relevant now. The total lack of interest in an obvious massive story is really disgraceful from the 'serious' press.
It's true for a number of stories. Time magazine did a whole, gloatingly toned, piece about the measures used to 'fortify' 2020.
Yet many on here were telling us in here how if you mentioned Hunter Biden, you were obviously part of some nut job right wing conspiracy theory plot. Only to go extremely silent when more and more evidence came on. You’d think at least one of them would have the balls to defend what they said….
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
You may even vote in a Scon government post independence
Unlikely, Scotland would become like Sweden, generally voting in social democratic governments like now, whether SNP or Labour. Only way the Conservatives would get in is with a broad alliance with the Liberals as in Sweden
Excuse me but you have no idea what the Scots would do post independence and away from Boris and Westminster
Someday Sturgeon and the SNP will have run their course and a Scon government is not at all impossible
An independent Scotland would be one of the most leftwing nations in the world. A centre right party might get about 30% on a good day, that is it. It would need the Liberals to ever form a government.
Scotland is only marginally more left wing than England. The SNP soak up a lot of @malcolmg types, so obscure the number of right wingers.
And centre-right is relative. The Tories are nearer US Dems than GOP nowadays.
Too busy -greenhouse to repair from wind damage - to do more than drop in for a moment - but amused how PBTories half the time claim that Scots are as rightwing and racist (or not) as other parts of the UK, [edit] so the prospects for Scons rule etc are bright, and half the time claim that they are a bunch of irredeemable lefties sui generis ...
I don't think it is that, it is one poster's naive misunderstanding of the reason for the absence of racial intolerance in his new surroundings
Top tip: congratulate right-on Tasmanians on how little problem they have with their aboriginal population compared to the mainland.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
well. QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
I'm genuinely staggered it's still not considered relevant now. The total lack of interest in an obvious massive story is really disgraceful from the 'serious' press.
It's true for a number of stories. Time magazine did a whole, gloatingly toned, piece about the measures used to 'fortify' 2020.
The entire “lab leak hypothesis” was crushed as a story for a year, partly - mainly? - to make sure it didn’t aid Trump in being re-elected, as he first espoused it
Which is quite something. A highly plausible explanation (almost certainly the true explanation) for the biggest global crisis since World War Two, and the first plague in a century, was hidden away and censored, so as to influence the US election
Tellingly, the revival of the hypothesis came weeks after Biden’s election
This is why Trumpites have reasons to doubt their democracy just as much as Democrats. America is in real trouble. Both sides feel, with some justification, a profound righteousness
Ross County v Rangers is live on Sky and looks windy
Evidently they're getting hit worse up North today, but it's been less than tranquil down here as well. Running uphill into something that felt like a gale this morning was somewhat challenging.
Yes, very windy up here in west central Scotland today.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Sometimes, when hardcore remainers mock brexit voters, saying that brexit will mean more brown and black immigrants, which they claim brexit voters don’t want, I wonder if perhaps those hardcore remainers quite liked that freedom of movement ensured that most immigrants were white, european, and christian. Different and exotic, but not actually brown or muslim.
But this may be too cynical, even for me.
I think some of them thought Leavers couldn’t tell the difference between an Indian with a Phd and a Romanian Big Issue seller. And of course a “Polish Plumber” was a boon to some and not to others.
True, although the original Polish Plumbers came in the late 90s and early 2000s when Poland was not in the EU and there was no freedom of movement - they came on work visas. So I’m not sure which side of the debate their coming helps.
Biden's cognitive abilities may yet be globally crucial. He wasn't 100 % there during the campaign, he's certainly not getting younger nor showing signs of getting sharper.
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Lucky the Ukraine at least got their bribes in early via his son, so he'll make what effort he can for them.
well. QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
I'm genuinely staggered it's still not considered relevant now. The total lack of interest in an obvious massive story is really disgraceful from the 'serious' press.
It's true for a number of stories. Time magazine did a whole, gloatingly toned, piece about the measures used to 'fortify' 2020.
The entire “lab leak hypothesis” was crushed as a story for a year, partly - mainly? - to make sure it didn’t aid Trump in being re-elected, as he first espoused it
Which is quite something. A highly plausible explanation (almost certainly the true explanation) for the biggest global crisis since World War Two, and the first plague in a century, was hidden away and censored, so as to influence the US election
Tellingly, the revival of the hypothesis came weeks after Biden’s election
This is why Trumpites have reasons to doubt their democracy just as much as Democrats. America is in real trouble. Both sides feel, with some justification, a profound righteousness
The lab theory leak revival story is interesting in itself. Vanity Fair (I think) did a very good piece on it but when it was felt that the story risked running of control when it came to proving Trump may have had a point, it was very quickly and effectively pulled in.
You have a very good point. Both sides doubt both their democracy and the law are fair (take a look at what is happened in the trial of those accused of plotting to kidnap Governor Whitmer in Michigan to see how that is now playing out).
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
Sometimes, when hardcore remainers mock brexit voters, saying that brexit will mean more brown and black immigrants, which they claim brexit voters don’t want, I wonder if perhaps those hardcore remainers quite liked that freedom of movement ensured that most immigrants were white, european, and christian. Different and exotic, but not actually brown or muslim.
But this may be too cynical, even for me.
I think some of them thought Leavers couldn’t tell the difference between an Indian with a Phd and a Romanian Big Issue seller. And of course a “Polish Plumber” was a boon to some and not to others.
It’s funny how many of the most ardent Remainers were also keen on cheap Labour coming in but seemed to be far less keen on allowing opening up the borders when it came to professional services such as the Law…
Just to let you know - before the Brexit vote came in, Carlotta was one of the biggest cheerleaders for Remain on the site.
I see its gets Joe Rogan day again....i thought it was highly amusing that Neil Young has been a big fan of RFK jnr, a massive conspiracy theorist and an anti-vaxxer...due to also spreading bullshit about GMO crops. So RFK good, despite spreading antivaxxer nonsense, Joe Rogan bad.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
Yes, very interesting to read. What is the point in NI's membership of the UK when the UK government has separated from it against its will? I need to apply for an export license and fill in paperwork to ship products to Ballymena. What kind of "union" is that?
It is no union at all. Northern Ireland is almost a separate country from the UK now. The local economy is aligning with the Republic and even supermarkets like Sainsburys are now being supplied by Hendersons. Tesco has secured Irish meats and farm produce to reduce the Irish Sea hassle.
I know, and the transformation is barely believable it is that absolute. ROI used to be a bolt-on to the UK market, now ROI drives and NI is bolted on to them. Hendersons have always traded across the border but now their entire operating model has swung from a horizontal to a vertical axis.
It won't take long before people will scratch their heads and ask what the point of the union is. I don't think many people in England understand just how fundamental a thing it was when the UK as a trading nation was abolished
The point of the Union was always a synthesis of benefit and feeling in varying proportions. As benefit recedes and only feeling is left (extreme feeling in the case of ideological Unionists both in NI and Scotland), the fall out could get very nasty.
It was noticeable during IndyRef1 that it was the BetterTogether side that consistently played the emotional card. The Yes team was a little too cerebral.
Aye, just so. In fact Bettertogether seemed very emotionally wound up even after winning. Of course angry winners seems to be the spirit of the age, see also Trumpers & Brexiteers. Quite often the same people mind you...
Comments
I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support:
- Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15.
- Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters.
- The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature.
- I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist.
- So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000.
- (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support:
- In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes.
- In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015.
- There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad.
- Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote.
- That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here).
- Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
It is good she was so happy notwithstanding covid, and it is grandchildren who provide so much joy for us as grandparents
How anyone could vote for that bunch of losers is beyond me, they would struggle to spell Green to boot..
They had an attachment to a romanticised version of Britain. Pretty similar to the hardcore brexiteers.
Most remainers and brexiteers are pretty normal people with normal lives just getting in with it. It is this hardcore of obsessives either side that keep banging on.
It is perfectly fair to tarnish all Unionists with the same brush as their chosen leaders. If they’re daft enough to pick Johnson et al as their leaders then they deserve the opprobrium they garner. If you think all Unionists are “decent people” then you ought to attend a few of their marches. Don’t bring the bairns!
Of course it would be better for England and all of her neighbours if England had a sane, competent and non-corrupt government, but life goes on in France, Flanders, the Netherlands , Scotland, Ireland and Wales even as England implodes. We do feel sorry for you, but like an alcoholic, at the end of the day only the English can save themselves.
So yes, UKIP could get about 30% of the vote on Thursday
I can move my O2 reading anywhere between 91 and 97 depending how I breathe!
@FraserNelson
The Covid inquiry should establish how such deeply misleading and wildly wrong Sage graphs were presented to ministers and the public - esp when accurate models were available.
Risk is that by crying wolf now, Sage won’t be heeded next time
Indefensibly, Sage modellers are under no obligation to publish their code (or data). This impedes scrutiny & makes error correction less likely: a recipe for blunders.
Modelling matters. The Omicron debacle is rich in lessons for what not to do next time
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1487361775658012672
Within three weeks, he was back, working with me on things he'd never had the time to look at when he had been a professor. We made a travelling wave reaction that produced a red line moving down a clear colourless solution. He literally skipped with joy. He moved around labs, working on stuff he found curious and interesting.
Just looked and his last paper was 2010 and he's still listed on teaching staff.
EXTRA: Went down a rabbit hole and found I've a direct link of supervisors all the way back to people like Fritz Haber. Which is nice.
What a mess the US is
I just don't see how you make sweeping generalisations about 'national pscyhe' with such certainty
I honestly have no idea how welcoming either place is. And on a couple of big political questions the two are certainly divided. But are we really that different? Given the, I think likely, argument about how similar most of W Europe at the least is on key questions, it just is not probable to me there are such stark divisions on what boils down to a feeling of how 'nice' they each are.
I certainly think such broad brush condemnations and praise based on nothing but localised gut feel is unrealistic and unfair.
I would rather be led by Biden than Johnson
Strange
It seems even they have given up on Sue Gray's filleted report and the appalling behaviour of Cressida Dick
And the solution they've taken is to flee to a massively less diverse country and talk about how wonderfully welcoming it is.
You'd need a heart of stone not to laugh.
20% turnout and 30% UKIP
UKIP are the main challengers to the Tories and the government is unpopular and Southend was strong Leave and UKIP got 17% there as recently as 2015, so 30% for UKIP is realistic
Unideal
https://apple.news/AKCofOX4UTce44Pcfc9B5cg
The west needs a strong US and looking at the direction of travel Trump of all people could be back- hence what a mess
Other than the general sense of dither we're already seeing, I'd rate a reasonably high change of another high profile fuck up - like Afghanistan - this year.
Anything going on in Eastern Europe at the moment?
Whilst we're on the general topic, I don't buy HY's contention that the second referendum is contingent upon a Labour minority propped up by the SNP, either. The political positioning of the latter is such that they have no leverage - not supporting a Labour Prime Minister effectively means aligning with the hated Tories by default - and Starmer has no interest in granting a vote on independence either, since losing it would clear a large bloc of centre-left MPs out of the Commons and leave the Conservatives permanently strengthened.
The removal of Stonewall Johnson is, therefore, a necessary precursor to a rematch of 2014, but not the only one. Starmer can resist just as effectively so long as the Scottish electorate remains divided both on the merits of such a vote and its timing. Voting SNP (or Green) and demanding another referendum are not the same thing; there will be real progress toward the latter only when a majority of Scottish public opinion coalesces behind the proposition that it should happen soon. At that point, a leadership in London that has some sense of propriety will have to yield, but not before.
It was active in the mid fifties when I lived in Berwick-upon-Tweed, near 70 years ago
Omicron is a pretty miserable thing to have. My pulse up with minimal exertion, chest is a bit tight, but the headache and brain fog are the worst today.
I'll dive in with 9.6%
First place prize is a SeanT book. Second place is two SeanT books.
QUITE.
Aren't we all glad this particular story was discussed thoroughly before the election.
14.3%
Someday Sturgeon and the SNP will have run their course and a Scon government is not at all impossible
Yes, the subsamples look ridiculous, but so much fun!
34% turnout
My colleagues who have come up from England sound very similar, though they at least live in the cosmopolitan Edinburgh. It's the Orwellian anti-patriotism thing - one of the most interesting bits of the English psyche.
Any Scot who visits London is quickly reminded of just how much more vibrant and diverse a city it is. Edinburgh only matches it in August.
Scotland 91.9% white
England 79.8%
London 44.9%
Long term, this is a massive problem for Scotland. The mass immigration of the 2000s just didn't occur on the same scale and the latest NRS projections (published 2 weeks ago) are genuinely frightening.
By 2045, the 76+ population will increase by 68%, while the under 15 population will decrease by 22%.
I'd probably emigrate of we went independent. It's my salary they'll come after.
They need to be much more focused on the natural world, not fecking pronouns.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/opinion/cryptocurrency-subprime-vulnerable.html
Gin fizz is nice, unless there's no soda water either. Is there no dubonnet, campari, red vermouth, aperol...
Fear me.
I have ordered ice and tonic from the bar but frankly it’s all a bit haphazard and it may take 2 days
And centre-right is relative. The Tories are nearer US Dems than GOP nowadays.
But this may be too cynical, even for me.
“They said, ‘Yeah, we just have to speak to you. You’ve not said anything hateful, there isn’t a crime here.’
“I said: ‘So why are you here?’ They said, ‘Because we need to speak to you to ascertain what your thinking was behind making your statement.’
https://twitter.com/filia_charity/status/1487305656747110400?s=21
Another 4 years of waste and decline in the US, while China continue to go from strength to strength.
But the sunset has turned to cloud
There is some overarching metaphor for the impossibility of the human condition, here
Top tip: congratulate right-on Tasmanians on how little problem they have with their aboriginal population compared to the mainland.
Which is quite something. A highly plausible explanation (almost certainly the true explanation) for the biggest global crisis since World War Two, and the first plague in a century, was hidden away and censored, so as to influence the US election
Tellingly, the revival of the hypothesis came weeks after Biden’s election
This is why Trumpites have reasons to doubt their democracy just as much as Democrats. America is in real trouble. Both sides feel, with some justification, a profound righteousness
Thanks, WORLD
You have a very good point. Both sides doubt both their democracy and the law are fair (take a look at what is happened in the trial of those accused of plotting to kidnap Governor Whitmer in Michigan to see how that is now playing out).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60177933
I see its gets Joe Rogan day again....i thought it was highly amusing that Neil Young has been a big fan of RFK jnr, a massive conspiracy theorist and an anti-vaxxer...due to also spreading bullshit about GMO crops. So RFK good, despite spreading antivaxxer nonsense, Joe Rogan bad.