Unlike Tugendhat, Sunak and Truss are both on the payroll, so can’t really comment until there’s actually a vacancy.
That said, the resignation of either of them, could be what kick-starts the contest in the first place.
Didn't Rory Stewart express an interest in the top job should a vacancy be available while still a Cabinet Minister?
Surely his time has passed? He would need to rejoin the Conservatives and that party no longer exists
I wasn't suggesting him for now; for the reasons you say his time has passed. But simply that there is no reason why a Cabinet Minister couldn't express a conditional wish for the top job as Rory did when he was in Cabinet. (If I've remembered correctly.)
I do wish Rory was back in Parliament, though.
He did nothing , just another yahoo Tory with no value add.
Surprisingly in agreement there. Stewart was just another romanticised figure who appealed to the chattering classes, along with the phrase “I would vote Tory if Rory Stewart was leader”. Missing the slight downside that RS being leader would lose the Tories more votes than he would bring in.
Plus, I cannot think the solution to the current crisis is yet another old Etonian.
Agreed, surely it is beyond time for an Old Harrovian?
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
They won’t. They are all piss and wind and angry tweets.
Semi agree with you there but what I can see them doing is trying to take over the Green Party. Ideal candidate for takeover - disorganised, fairly naive in its attitude to interlopers, left leaning and with a branding message that is seen as cute and cuddly by sections of the public. They would be stupid not to be thinking about taking it over
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
But it’s not insightful for the reasons the writer thinks
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
I think you've finally reached peak Blimp. To any of your fans on here who think it's just another costume change you haven't been following
Unlike Tugendhat, Sunak and Truss are both on the payroll, so can’t really comment until there’s actually a vacancy.
That said, the resignation of either of them, could be what kick-starts the contest in the first place.
Didn't Rory Stewart express an interest in the top job should a vacancy be available while still a Cabinet Minister?
Surely his time has passed? He would need to rejoin the Conservatives and that party no longer exists
I wasn't suggesting him for now; for the reasons you say his time has passed. But simply that there is no reason why a Cabinet Minister couldn't express a conditional wish for the top job as Rory did when he was in Cabinet. (If I've remembered correctly.)
I do wish Rory was back in Parliament, though.
He did nothing , just another yahoo Tory with no value add.
Surprisingly in agreement there. Stewart was just another romanticised figure who appealed to the chattering classes, along with the phrase “I would vote Tory if Rory Stewart was leader”. Missing the slight downside that RS being leader would lose the Tories more votes than he would bring in.
Plus, I cannot think the solution to the current crisis is yet another old Etonian.
Agreed, surely it is beyond time for an Old Harrovian?
Suspect we'll end up with an Old Wykehamist, so pretty much the same
But it’s not insightful for the reasons the writer thinks
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Oh the irony after this mornings discussion. Nope Brexiteers not bring up Brexit at all, no never. Yet here we are and you have brought it up twice unprovoked this morning and again discussing with me that it isn't brought up unprovoked by Brexiteers. You haver spent the whole morning talking Brexit!
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
My wife is an EU citizen and hasn't left. We are both deeply nostalgic for pre Brexit Britain. I suppose the nostalgia we feel is similar to that felt by Brexit voters in 2016, who hoped for a return of the pre mass immigration era. But the reality is that both worlds have passed. They are gone forever and aren't coming back. We have to make what we can of the new reality.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Or they take over the Greens, as mentioned below.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Left Unity is my favourite, as not only does it make no sense by its very name, but as you say also had splits. Hilarious stuff.
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
Yes, I shall give up medicine when I hit State Pension age (67 in my case). It does need active preparation to have a sufficient range of activities to stimulate the brain afterwards. I will read and garden more, but that cannot fill a whole day.
I recommend the u3a; both in person and on-line.
Yes, and my church has endless committees, and I wouldn't mind doing a Liberal arts degree at the Open University. I have always been interested, but dropped all that for science when 16 years old.
10 years to go for me, but thinking about it more and more. Work is pretty grim at the moment, with endless backlogs. I was in a meeting with our outpatient manager on Wednesday, and not only are we not making progress, each month the hole we are in grows bigger. I have serious doubts as to whether things can be restored at all, let alone soon.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Or they take over the Greens, as mentioned below.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
I doubt the Greens would go for it as that would kill off the councillors they have gained in liberal areas of the South, which would vote Green but not for Corbyn
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I retired at 65 and was told by my colleagues that after a couple of weeks they'd see me back. I think I went back to do a couple of projects for a few weeks, then called that a day. I did, though, do a couple of projects for other people, on a very part-time basis, but then at 70 called it a day, professionally. What with insurance, and professional registration fees and assorted requirements it was too demanding. Mrs C and I did a few cricket tours, watching England, and of course spent some family time with grandchildren. As some were in Thailand we spent some time there, and used it as a base for travelling. We had some European holidays trips, too. Back home we both joined the u3a and took part in activities there. And we joined interest groups in the town to which we'd moved. It's been more difficult, travelling wise over the last few year, what with the pandemic and me getting somewhat less mobile, but we both use the internet and especially Zoom and FaceTime. And, of course, we read.
So I agree with Mr P; Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently if he's had t'internet!.
My mum died suddenly last Sunday aged 84, in poor health physically (confined to her house) but mentally still sharp.
Despite the restrictions of Covid, I think her past couple of years have been some of her happiest because of one thing: FaceTime.
She couldn't/wouldn't use a computer but we persuaded her to try an iPad for FaceTime and she got the hang of it and loved seeing and chatting to her grandchildren, who were good at calling her regularly. I was able to speak to her on it most days, too.
So thank-you Apple and the internet for that.
Sorry to hear that. Glad she had a good ending
Thanks @Leon. It was, as the per the cliche, exactly as she'd have wanted to go, so she was lucky there.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Or they take over the Greens, as mentioned below.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
The Greens though have a very different vibe, from light green recyclers to dark green eco-anarchists. Few are interested in traditional left wing structures and parties, indeed that is the reason they formed the party.
James Blunt @JamesBlunt · 1h If @spotify doesn’t immediately remove @joerogan , I will release new music onto the platform. #youwerebeautiful
It’s always welcome and heartening when multi-millionaire musicians campaign against Freedom of Speech and try to prevent me listening to alternative voices
Some people will wish to spend an unexpected piece of downtime with Neil Young's Harvest album, sinking into bittersweet little masterpieces such as Heart of Gold, Old Man, Out on the Weekend. Others will prefer to listen to the crude braindead chatter of alt-right "podcasters". Each to his own and let a thousand flowers bloom. This is how I see it. It'd be boring if everyone was an intelligent person of quality and taste. Things would atrophy.
Unlike Tugendhat, Sunak and Truss are both on the payroll, so can’t really comment until there’s actually a vacancy.
That said, the resignation of either of them, could be what kick-starts the contest in the first place.
Didn't Rory Stewart express an interest in the top job should a vacancy be available while still a Cabinet Minister?
Surely his time has passed? He would need to rejoin the Conservatives and that party no longer exists
I wasn't suggesting him for now; for the reasons you say his time has passed. But simply that there is no reason why a Cabinet Minister couldn't express a conditional wish for the top job as Rory did when he was in Cabinet. (If I've remembered correctly.)
I do wish Rory was back in Parliament, though.
He did nothing , just another yahoo Tory with no value add.
Surprisingly in agreement there. Stewart was just another romanticised figure who appealed to the chattering classes, along with the phrase “I would vote Tory if Rory Stewart was leader”. Missing the slight downside that RS being leader would lose the Tories more votes than he would bring in.
Plus, I cannot think the solution to the current crisis is yet another old Etonian.
Agreed, surely it is beyond time for an Old Harrovian?
Suspect we'll end up with an Old Wykehamist, so pretty much the same
On that about time, Sunak would be the first Winchester educated PM since Henry Addington in 1801.
Since then we have had old Harrovian PMs from Peel to Palmerston to Baldwin and Churchill and umpteen Etonian PMs from Gladstone and Salisbury to Eden, Macmillan and Home, Cameron and Boris
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
Yes, I shall give up medicine when I hit State Pension age (67 in my case). It does need active preparation to have a sufficient range of activities to stimulate the brain afterwards. I will read and garden more, but that cannot fill a whole day.
A daily prescription of PB will cure what might ail you. Just beware of overdosing.
Day 3 of isolation, and feeling rather rough. Headache mostly today, but general fatigue, and some cough. O2 sats still good. Mostly bored today, not feeling up to a long read. Dog a bit bouncy and not understanding why I am at home, but not walking him.
Not retirement of course, but boring.
I am on day 6 of Covid. Symptoms sound similar. The fatigue has been bad, I've not got anything done all week aside from my day job, which I've just about kept on top of. LFTs still positive but I now seem to be ok. I normally go out for a lot of walks so really missing that.
Mr. StillWaters, I liked that a lot too. Nicely bridges the Roman to Norman period in a single volume.
I can recommend his other books (particularly on the Norman Conquest). For a broader look at the European/Middle East/North African period 400-1000AD, Chris Wickham's Inheritance of Rome was very good indeed.
I still have two feet of Christmas books to work through, but thank you!
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
My wife is an EU citizen and hasn't left. We are both deeply nostalgic for pre Brexit Britain. I suppose the nostalgia we feel is similar to that felt by Brexit voters in 2016, who hoped for a return of the pre mass immigration era. But the reality is that both worlds have passed. They are gone forever and aren't coming back. We have to make what we can of the new reality.
I think that is a realistic approach. The reality is that we will still have much higher immigration than many wanted because our economy has been fed a diet of unlimited labour for a long time and is addicted to it. The change towards higher productivity, better training, more capital investment, better wages etc will not happen overnight and possibly not even at all unless we prioritise it. We really need to focus on seeking to change these things, however we voted.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
Yes, very interesting to read. What is the point in NI's membership of the UK when the UK government has separated from it against its will? I need to apply for an export license and fill in paperwork to ship products to Ballymena. What kind of "union" is that?
It is no union at all. Northern Ireland is almost a separate country from the UK now. The local economy is aligning with the Republic and even supermarkets like Sainsburys are now being supplied by Hendersons. Tesco has secured Irish meats and farm produce to reduce the Irish Sea hassle.
I know, and the transformation is barely believable it is that absolute. ROI used to be a bolt-on to the UK market, now ROI drives and NI is bolted on to them. Hendersons have always traded across the border but now their entire operating model has swung from a horizontal to a vertical axis.
It won't take long before people will scratch their heads and ask what the point of the union is. I don't think many people in England understand just how fundamental a thing it was when the UK as a trading nation was abolished
That understanding will come in time as everything gets more and more expensive and harder to import. In 20 years, maybe ....
The only thing the UK does is send money here. That could be funded from a mix of the Republic and EU Regional funds plus whatever the local economy can generate.
Could? Yes. Will be? Not convinced. Great Britain is thirteen times the size of Ireland; AIUI not nearly everyone in Ireland is thrilled at the prospect of having to pick up the tab for keeping Northern Ireland in the style to which it is presently accustomed (and that's without considering the small matter of welcoming hundreds of thousands of defeated, resentful loyalists into the fold.)
Besides which, if and when a border poll happens, expect the healthcare card to be played. The Irish system is substantially different: no Union, no NHS. The former may not be universally popular but the latter is ritually lionised by almost everyone - and people will absolutely loathe being made to cough up for GP appointments and hospital visits which they have been brought up to regard as free of charge by right.
Because of the example of Brexit, where a vote to sunder one Union was actually won, we are perhaps tempted to underestimate the challenge which confronts those seeking to break another. Brexit was only carried by a 52:48 margin, of course: if the UK were a net recipient of EU funds rather than a net contributor, the infamous red bus would never have taken to the road and the proposition would almost certainly have failed.
Mmm, I see. I think voting Tory in Southend W won't be interpreted as a vote of confidence in British Afghanistan policy, though - just a message to murderers not to bother, you just get another MP with similar views.
The thing about this theory is that it assumes that the motive of an MP-murderer is to try to shift the balance of the Commons -- which to my mind seems absolutely absurd. On any of the more plausible theories of what drives such people (wanting publicity, mental illness, personal grudge against that specific politician, intimidate public figures into not speaking out on an issue) the details of who might be voted in as their replacement don't figure into it at all. Any "message sending" along those lines is completely misdirected.
(Personally I think we should treat this kind of by-election like any other where for instance the sitting MP died of a heart attack -- you could make a case there too if you liked that the MP should be replaced by one of the same party. AIUI some elected positions in the US work like that, with a replacement selected by a governor or similar figure to serve until the next scheduled election.)
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
But will not be for much longer once DUP ministers ban checks on goods going to and from NI and GB which Truss will not oppose
You truly are a fool They have no power to do such a thing. If they did have they would already have done so. The operation of the NI side of the GB NI hard border is with the NI Office, not the devolved administration.
They do.
The DUP ministers are about to rip the Irish Sea border to pieces.
Truss has correctly made clear the UK government will not do a thing to stop them as Boris has given her responsibility for it, the NI office will be powerless if Truss rightly orders them to do nothing
I know that you are fundamentally a parrot so won't understand this, so lets go slowly.
No, they don't. Read the article. The proposal is that the DUP "block" the checks. As they don;t have any power over them every other party on the executive has pointed out that it is a stunt. Because civil servants in the NI Office who run the border would be obliged to ignore the DUP.
Truss is saying they won't intervene because the government would implement the pull on checks. Because the NI Office runs them, not the assembly.
I have to assume that you know this, you aren't that ignorant. So you are repeating a lie thinking we are stupid. We are not. Perhaps you are?
Civil servants in NI report to the UK government. As Truss makes clear she will not block the decision of elected DUP ministers to block the checks.
And if that does not work the DUP have also made clear they will walk out of the Stormont Executive and effectively end the Good Friday Agreement until the Irish Sea border is removed
Correct - civil servants in NI report to the UK government. So Poots has zero power to order anything.
So why do you keep saying that he does?
It’s the same as his continual statements that the DUP will quite Stormont. They can’t because as soon as they do the last hurdles that are stopping abortions from occurring in NI can be removed by the Northern Ireland Secretary who needs the issue resolved before he becomes in contempt of court (latter doesn’t mean anything but the DUP quitting Stormont isn’t the win HYUFD thinks it will be.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
And every week that goes by by the Corruption Party in government and apparent collusion by the police and the powers that be, the more likely it is that independence will happen. For all that Blackford and the SNP call for Liar to go they really want him to stay as it is self evident to all bar a few on here the damage that the government are doing to the Union.
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I retired at 65 and was told by my colleagues that after a couple of weeks they'd see me back. I think I went back to do a couple of projects for a few weeks, then called that a day. I did, though, do a couple of projects for other people, on a very part-time basis, but then at 70 called it a day, professionally. What with insurance, and professional registration fees and assorted requirements it was too demanding. Mrs C and I did a few cricket tours, watching England, and of course spent some family time with grandchildren. As some were in Thailand we spent some time there, and used it as a base for travelling. We had some European holidays trips, too. Back home we both joined the u3a and took part in activities there. And we joined interest groups in the town to which we'd moved. It's been more difficult, travelling wise over the last few year, what with the pandemic and me getting somewhat less mobile, but we both use the internet and especially Zoom and FaceTime. And, of course, we read.
So I agree with Mr P; Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently if he's had t'internet!.
My mum died suddenly last Sunday aged 84, in poor health physically (confined to her house) but mentally still sharp.
Despite the restrictions of Covid, I think her past couple of years have been some of her happiest because of one thing: FaceTime.
She couldn't/wouldn't use a computer but we persuaded her to try an iPad for FaceTime and she got the hang of it and loved seeing and chatting to her grandchildren, who were good at calling her regularly. I was able to speak to her on it most days, too.
So thank-you Apple and the internet for that.
Sorry to hear that. Glad she had a good ending
Thanks @Leon. It was, as the per the cliche, exactly as she'd have wanted to go, so she was lucky there.
Its a good age and having all your faculties to the end is a real blessing. The loss of these (such as they are) is much for frightening than death for me.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
That's not a flaw.
That is very kind of you @kinabalu but I think it is. Someone has to take responsibility and I am leaving it to others to do that on my behalf.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
The more centrist party won in 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 and 2017 and arguably 2019. It also won most seats in 2010.
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Or they take over the Greens, as mentioned below.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
The Greens though have a very different vibe, from light green recyclers to dark green eco-anarchists. Few are interested in traditional left wing structures and parties, indeed that is the reason they formed the party.
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet in whichever form and that trumps everything. Hence why they remain a niche party despite their European counterparts advancing, because they refuse to be pragmatic. If the Corbynites came to them and said “we can get you to your goal if we join forces”, I suspect many would go along with it and turn a blind eye to the other excesses.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
My wife is an EU citizen and hasn't left. We are both deeply nostalgic for pre Brexit Britain. I suppose the nostalgia we feel is similar to that felt by Brexit voters in 2016, who hoped for a return of the pre mass immigration era. But the reality is that both worlds have passed. They are gone forever and aren't coming back. We have to make what we can of the new reality.
I think that is a realistic approach. The reality is that we will still have much higher immigration than many wanted because our economy has been fed a diet of unlimited labour for a long time and is addicted to it. The change towards higher productivity, better training, more capital investment, better wages etc will not happen overnight and possibly not even at all unless we prioritise it. We really need to focus on seeking to change these things, however we voted.
Agreed - the question is how. A starter for 10 - how do we grow productivity to drive real growth in the economy when we have just made trade difficult and goods more expensive than they need to be? Whatever efficiencies we can try to gain from productivity get more than offset in the loss of output from lower trade and higher costs.
This is why this Brexiteer keeps banging on about Boris's Border Operating Model not working. Aside from a few nutters nobody voted for Brexit because they wanted to be worse off. And yet worse off they are being made because your government are stupid and certain people provide them succour for stupid.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
And every week that goes by by the Corruption Party in government and apparent collusion by the police and the powers that be, the more likely it is that independence will happen. For all that Blackford and the SNP call for Liar to go they really want him to stay as it is self evident to all bar a few on here the damage that the government are doing to the Union.
The government will continue to refuse indyref2 so it does not matter. Only way the SNP get indyref2 is with a Starmer minority government
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
Yes, very interesting to read. What is the point in NI's membership of the UK when the UK government has separated from it against its will? I need to apply for an export license and fill in paperwork to ship products to Ballymena. What kind of "union" is that?
It is no union at all. Northern Ireland is almost a separate country from the UK now. The local economy is aligning with the Republic and even supermarkets like Sainsburys are now being supplied by Hendersons. Tesco has secured Irish meats and farm produce to reduce the Irish Sea hassle.
I know, and the transformation is barely believable it is that absolute. ROI used to be a bolt-on to the UK market, now ROI drives and NI is bolted on to them. Hendersons have always traded across the border but now their entire operating model has swung from a horizontal to a vertical axis.
It won't take long before people will scratch their heads and ask what the point of the union is. I don't think many people in England understand just how fundamental a thing it was when the UK as a trading nation was abolished
That understanding will come in time as everything gets more and more expensive and harder to import. In 20 years, maybe ....
The only thing the UK does is send money here. That could be funded from a mix of the Republic and EU Regional funds plus whatever the local economy can generate.
Could? Yes. Will be? Not convinced. Great Britain is thirteen times the size of Ireland; AIUI not nearly everyone in Ireland is thrilled at the prospect of having to pick up the tab for keeping Northern Ireland in the style to which it is presently accustomed (and that's without considering the small matter of welcoming hundreds of thousands of defeated, resentful loyalists into the fold.)
Besides which, if and when a border poll happens, expect the healthcare card to be played. The Irish system is substantially different: no Union, no NHS. The former may not be universally popular but the latter is ritually lionised by almost everyone - and people will absolutely loathe being made to cough up for GP appointments and hospital visits which they have been brought up to regard as free of charge by right.
Because of the example of Brexit, where a vote to sunder one Union was actually won, we are perhaps tempted to underestimate the challenge which confronts those seeking to break another. Brexit was only carried by a 52:48 margin, of course: if the UK were a net recipient of EU funds rather than a net contributor, the infamous red bus would never have taken to the road and the proposition would almost certainly have failed.
Money talks. To secede, first get rich.
Though interestingly, according to the article, a major platform of SF South of the border is to set up a state NHS type system, so it may well be more of a merger than a takeover in reunification.
Though the NI NHS is in a parlous state, that makes even the Welsh version look healthy.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
The more centrist party won in 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 and 2017 and arguably 2019. It also won most seats in 2010.
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
Am I missing something here? That's 8-6, and one of the 8 you put down as 'arguable', so it would seem that it's almost 50/50.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
The more centrist party won in 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 and 2017 and arguably 2019. It also won most seats in 2010.
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
More centrist is not the same as centrist.
The Tories of 1992 were not centrist nor in 2017 and 2019, they were decidedly right of centre. Same goes for the GE of 2010 but Cameron moderated his stance because he needed to go into coalition.
Labour portrayed itself as centrist in 1997 but moved more left wing (particularly on cultural issues) as the elections moved on. It also remained a left wing party.
The closest it can be said a centrist party has been to political power is the Liberal-SDP alliance of the early 80s.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
But will not be for much longer once DUP ministers ban checks on goods going to and from NI and GB which Truss will not oppose
You truly are a fool They have no power to do such a thing. If they did have they would already have done so. The operation of the NI side of the GB NI hard border is with the NI Office, not the devolved administration.
They do.
The DUP ministers are about to rip the Irish Sea border to pieces.
Truss has correctly made clear the UK government will not do a thing to stop them as Boris has given her responsibility for it, the NI office will be powerless if Truss rightly orders them to do nothing
I know that you are fundamentally a parrot so won't understand this, so lets go slowly.
No, they don't. Read the article. The proposal is that the DUP "block" the checks. As they don;t have any power over them every other party on the executive has pointed out that it is a stunt. Because civil servants in the NI Office who run the border would be obliged to ignore the DUP.
Truss is saying they won't intervene because the government would implement the pull on checks. Because the NI Office runs them, not the assembly.
I have to assume that you know this, you aren't that ignorant. So you are repeating a lie thinking we are stupid. We are not. Perhaps you are?
Civil servants in NI report to the UK government. As Truss makes clear she will not block the decision of elected DUP ministers to block the checks.
And if that does not work the DUP have also made clear they will walk out of the Stormont Executive and effectively end the Good Friday Agreement until the Irish Sea border is removed
Correct - civil servants in NI report to the UK government. So Poots has zero power to order anything.
So why do you keep saying that he does?
It’s the same as his continual statements that the DUP will quite Stormont. They can’t because as soon as they do the last hurdles that are stopping abortions from occurring in NI can be removed by the Northern Ireland Secretary who needs the issue resolved before he becomes in contempt of court (latter doesn’t mean anything but the DUP quitting Stormont isn’t the win HYUFD thinks it will be.
Of course it is. It will stop DUP leakage to the TUV once the DUP quit Stormont until the Irish Sea border is removed.
Abortion is already legal in NI anyway even though the DUP opposed that. However the DUP have lost votes because of the NIP not abortion. Indeed the DUP have even won some votes from pro life Catholics over abortion
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
But will not be for much longer once DUP ministers ban checks on goods going to and from NI and GB which Truss will not oppose
You truly are a fool They have no power to do such a thing. If they did have they would already have done so. The operation of the NI side of the GB NI hard border is with the NI Office, not the devolved administration.
They do.
The DUP ministers are about to rip the Irish Sea border to pieces.
Truss has correctly made clear the UK government will not do a thing to stop them as Boris has given her responsibility for it, the NI office will be powerless if Truss rightly orders them to do nothing
I know that you are fundamentally a parrot so won't understand this, so lets go slowly.
No, they don't. Read the article. The proposal is that the DUP "block" the checks. As they don;t have any power over them every other party on the executive has pointed out that it is a stunt. Because civil servants in the NI Office who run the border would be obliged to ignore the DUP.
Truss is saying they won't intervene because the government would implement the pull on checks. Because the NI Office runs them, not the assembly.
I have to assume that you know this, you aren't that ignorant. So you are repeating a lie thinking we are stupid. We are not. Perhaps you are?
Civil servants in NI report to the UK government. As Truss makes clear she will not block the decision of elected DUP ministers to block the checks.
And if that does not work the DUP have also made clear they will walk out of the Stormont Executive and effectively end the Good Friday Agreement until the Irish Sea border is removed
Correct - civil servants in NI report to the UK government. So Poots has zero power to order anything.
So why do you keep saying that he does?
It’s the same as his continual statements that the DUP will quite Stormont. They can’t because as soon as they do the last hurdles that are stopping abortions from occurring in NI can be removed by the Northern Ireland Secretary who needs the issue resolved before he becomes in contempt of court (latter doesn’t mean anything but the DUP quitting Stormont isn’t the win HYUFD thinks it will be.
HY lives in a fantasy world where he can tell endless lies and repeat as much stupid as he can think of and people will accept it as truth. Not only does this demonstrate his own values it rather highlights what his party thinks of people out there.
Johnsonite Tories like HY lie because they believe the general public will accept the lies. That they don;t know the facts or even accept what is in front of them. It is the Trumpification of our politics that should worry all of us who actually have standards.
I have disagreed - profoundly disagreed - with previous generations of politicians. But none of them were openly corrupt, brazenly lying, undermining the institutions of the state for their own self-promotion. Johnson does all, and the lickspittles who support him share the same lack of values. Its very very worrying.
It's interesting that Boris's two biggest fans on here both live outside the UK. I suppose it was the same with Berlusconi. How we'd laugh at his Bunga Bunga parties from a safe distance
I remember hearing of the defenestration of Maggie while staying in a hostel in Borneo. The common room was mostly British and Irish, with a few Australians, Dutch and the inevitable Germans. It was in the days before phones and social media, so quite a chatty bunch, talking about plans and where to go next.
In walks a slightly shocked looking local owner, who announces that Maggie had gone, followed by a spontaneous cheer from the Brits and Irish. Foreigners often fail to understand how unpopular leaders are domestically. Something that we should consider both in Russia and Ukraine BTW.
One pollster did attempt to do comparative stuff, maybe in 2013-14, so they had our government popularity but also major neighbours, all with a similar methodology.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
And every week that goes by by the Corruption Party in government and apparent collusion by the police and the powers that be, the more likely it is that independence will happen. For all that Blackford and the SNP call for Liar to go they really want him to stay as it is self evident to all bar a few on here the damage that the government are doing to the Union.
The government will continue to refuse indyref2 so it does not matter. Only way the SNP get indyref2 is with a Starmer minority government
Laughable. You speak as if this government will last for a thousand years, It Will Fall. They all fall. And when it does the damage you are causing may be irreparable.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I retired at 65 and was told by my colleagues that after a couple of weeks they'd see me back. I think I went back to do a couple of projects for a few weeks, then called that a day. I did, though, do a couple of projects for other people, on a very part-time basis, but then at 70 called it a day, professionally. What with insurance, and professional registration fees and assorted requirements it was too demanding. Mrs C and I did a few cricket tours, watching England, and of course spent some family time with grandchildren. As some were in Thailand we spent some time there, and used it as a base for travelling. We had some European holidays trips, too. Back home we both joined the u3a and took part in activities there. And we joined interest groups in the town to which we'd moved. It's been more difficult, travelling wise over the last few year, what with the pandemic and me getting somewhat less mobile, but we both use the internet and especially Zoom and FaceTime. And, of course, we read.
So I agree with Mr P; Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently if he's had t'internet!.
My mum died suddenly last Sunday aged 84, in poor health physically (confined to her house) but mentally still sharp.
Despite the restrictions of Covid, I think her past couple of years have been some of her happiest because of one thing: FaceTime.
She couldn't/wouldn't use a computer but we persuaded her to try an iPad for FaceTime and she got the hang of it and loved seeing and chatting to her grandchildren, who were good at calling her regularly. I was able to speak to her on it most days, too.
So thank-you Apple and the internet for that.
Sorry to hear that. Glad she had a good ending
Thanks @Leon. It was, as the per the cliche, exactly as she'd have wanted to go, so she was lucky there.
Condolences on your loss @benpointer but good to hear that she went in such a way
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
More realistically they found the Peace and Justice Party, then have a row, then we have two PJP's whose principle enemy is the other PJP. This is how the laughably named "left unity" has so many pointless mini parties represented.
Or they take over the Greens, as mentioned below.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
The Greens though have a very different vibe, from light green recyclers to dark green eco-anarchists. Few are interested in traditional left wing structures and parties, indeed that is the reason they formed the party.
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet in whichever form and that trumps everything. Hence why they remain a niche party despite their European counterparts advancing, because they refuse to be pragmatic. If the Corbynites came to them and said “we can get you to your goal if we join forces”, I suspect many would go along with it and turn a blind eye to the other excesses.
No, I think they abhor Trotskyites as much as they deplore capitalism. At least the ones that I know.
I think it is easy for rightwingers to underestimate how fundamental differences of ideology are on the left. Sure, personality politics comes into it, but ideology more.
Indeed one thing I like about the Greens is their opposition to cults of personality.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
I would also argue that the Tories were so deeply and widely unpopular by 97, that Labour didn't have to be either that Centrist or well-marshalled. That extra gave them 179. Just not being the Conservatives would have won them a majority then.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
If I lived in Southend West I would happily vote Conservative as a personal protest against the murder of MPs. It doesn't affect the outcome. The argument is, nor should it.
Are you *differentially* opposed to the murder of mps, and confident of getting through to the right audience?
What? I agree with FF43. Vote Tory in Southend West! (And, if that's what you were asking, I equally oppose murdering anyone else too.)
That's what differentially means to me, sure. I just don't think a vote for a lying slob complicit in the unnecessary abandonment of civilians to possible murder in Kabul sends the message you want. The opposite actually
Mmm, I see. I think voting Tory in Southend W won't be interpreted as a vote of confidence in British Afghanistan policy, though - just a message to murderers not to bother, you just get another MP with similar views. There will be other opportunities to express a view on the virtues or otherwise of Conservative government.
I do think it's surprising that a far-left groupuscule hasn't had a go, through. Someone like TUSC might even have saved their deposit and certainly got a fair amount of coverage.
If I had been one of the nutter candidates I would have rebadged as Anti Corruption Publish Gray In Full Now. Definite deposit saver, at least
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
The more centrist party won in 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 and 2017 and arguably 2019. It also won most seats in 2010.
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
More centrist is not the same as centrist.
The Tories of 1992 were not centrist nor in 2017 and 2019, they were decidedly right of centre. Same goes for the GE of 2010 but Cameron moderated his stance because he needed to go into coalition.
Labour portrayed itself as centrist in 1997 but moved more left wing (particularly on cultural issues) as the elections moved on. It also remained a left wing party.
The closest it can be said a centrist party has been to political power is the Liberal-SDP alliance of the early 80s.
LibDems were clearly in the centre and in government from 2010. The coalition did some good things and some bad things as all governments do. Notable that most of what I see as the good things - gay marriage, pupil premium, tax free allowance - were LD policies, and just look at what the 12 month Cameron government did after it won a majority...
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
And every week that goes by by the Corruption Party in government and apparent collusion by the police and the powers that be, the more likely it is that independence will happen. For all that Blackford and the SNP call for Liar to go they really want him to stay as it is self evident to all bar a few on here the damage that the government are doing to the Union.
Last thing Blackford and Sturgeon want is Liar to go , suits them fine in their panto roles.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
And now we come to PBers resident in England needing to moan about pro-Indy Scots and how bad Scotland is under the EssEnnPee, which they do copiously and frequently.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
I would also argue that the Tories were so deeply and widely unpopular by 97, that Labour didn't have to be either that Centrist or well-marshalled. That extra gave them 179. Just not being the Conservatives would have won them a majority then.
Spot on. I suspect the Monster Raving Loony Party would have won
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I retired at 65 and was told by my colleagues that after a couple of weeks they'd see me back. I think I went back to do a couple of projects for a few weeks, then called that a day. I did, though, do a couple of projects for other people, on a very part-time basis, but then at 70 called it a day, professionally. What with insurance, and professional registration fees and assorted requirements it was too demanding. Mrs C and I did a few cricket tours, watching England, and of course spent some family time with grandchildren. As some were in Thailand we spent some time there, and used it as a base for travelling. We had some European holidays trips, too. Back home we both joined the u3a and took part in activities there. And we joined interest groups in the town to which we'd moved. It's been more difficult, travelling wise over the last few year, what with the pandemic and me getting somewhat less mobile, but we both use the internet and especially Zoom and FaceTime. And, of course, we read.
So I agree with Mr P; Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently if he's had t'internet!.
My mum died suddenly last Sunday aged 84, in poor health physically (confined to her house) but mentally still sharp.
Despite the restrictions of Covid, I think her past couple of years have been some of her happiest because of one thing: FaceTime.
She couldn't/wouldn't use a computer but we persuaded her to try an iPad for FaceTime and she got the hang of it and loved seeing and chatting to her grandchildren, who were good at calling her regularly. I was able to speak to her on it most days, too.
So thank-you Apple and the internet for that.
Sorry to hear that. Glad she had a good ending
Thanks @Leon. It was, as the per the cliche, exactly as she'd have wanted to go, so she was lucky there.
Condolences on your loss @benpointer but good to hear that she went in such a way
Condolences shared. Going out happy is all any of us can wish for.
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet
You might be based and pilled but you know nothing about the Greens. Our overwhelming desire is to be proved right. We know the planet can't be saved at this point.
The Greens are the most entryism resistant of all the parties. We are too diverse, ill-disciplined and, in many cases, utterly disconnected from mainstream political thought.
Also, a large proportion of the Corbynites are culturally working class who would be suspected of having only one type of vinegar in their kitchens. It just doesn't work.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
But will not be for much longer once DUP ministers ban checks on goods going to and from NI and GB which Truss will not oppose
You truly are a fool They have no power to do such a thing. If they did have they would already have done so. The operation of the NI side of the GB NI hard border is with the NI Office, not the devolved administration.
They do.
The DUP ministers are about to rip the Irish Sea border to pieces.
Truss has correctly made clear the UK government will not do a thing to stop them as Boris has given her responsibility for it, the NI office will be powerless if Truss rightly orders them to do nothing
I know that you are fundamentally a parrot so won't understand this, so lets go slowly.
No, they don't. Read the article. The proposal is that the DUP "block" the checks. As they don;t have any power over them every other party on the executive has pointed out that it is a stunt. Because civil servants in the NI Office who run the border would be obliged to ignore the DUP.
Truss is saying they won't intervene because the government would implement the pull on checks. Because the NI Office runs them, not the assembly.
I have to assume that you know this, you aren't that ignorant. So you are repeating a lie thinking we are stupid. We are not. Perhaps you are?
Civil servants in NI report to the UK government. As Truss makes clear she will not block the decision of elected DUP ministers to block the checks.
And if that does not work the DUP have also made clear they will walk out of the Stormont Executive and effectively end the Good Friday Agreement until the Irish Sea border is removed
Correct - civil servants in NI report to the UK government. So Poots has zero power to order anything.
So why do you keep saying that he does?
It’s the same as his continual statements that the DUP will quite Stormont. They can’t because as soon as they do the last hurdles that are stopping abortions from occurring in NI can be removed by the Northern Ireland Secretary who needs the issue resolved before he becomes in contempt of court (latter doesn’t mean anything but the DUP quitting Stormont isn’t the win HYUFD thinks it will be.
Of course it is. It will stop DUP leakage to the TUV once the DUP quit Stormont until the Irish Sea border is removed.
Abortion is already legal in NI anyway even though the DUP opposed that. However the DUP have lost votes because of the NIP not abortion. Indeed the DUP have even won some votes from pro life Catholics over abortion
Abortions are currently not occurring in NI due to the DUP blocking hospitals from providing them.
That’s the point I’ve so far pointed out to you twice that you can’t grasp. The TUV can’t lose, stay in Stormont and the TUV talk about Borders, kill Stormont and there are a different set of issues ready to use.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
That's not a flaw.
That is very kind of you @kinabalu but I think it is. Someone has to take responsibility and I am leaving it to others to do that on my behalf.
In my more sombre moments I reflect on if my own general passivity in all things is a flaw, at least to the level I take it. I don't think eschewing such responsibility is at that point, but it makes me wonder.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivviewho seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
Can you link to an example of me doing that, else i might think you're making stuff up?
But it’s not insightful for the reasons the writer thinks
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
What they miss, as explained in the article, was a niceness about Britain that was lost with Brexit. It was an idea, maybe an illusion. But given people expressing comments similar to yours just now, it's hardly surprising they don't think Britain is so nice now.
Nah, if they can’t be arsed to spend even 5 minutes asking themselves as to whether the Leavers had a point about sovereignty and democracy, and weren’t all thick racist plebs, then they are Better Off Out of the UK, to coin a phrase
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
When I moan about the UK I am including Scotland , it is no paradise and is almost as crap as UK at present.
Funnily enough, I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that comment but more the likes of @Theuniondivvie who seems to portray Scotland as some sort of paradise as compared to the hell hole of the U.K.
I was not insinuating you were MrEd , just adding my tuppence worth. I for one don't see Scotland as it is as any paradise, big changes needed for sure and they will never happen whilst we are in the union. May not happen when independent but at least there will be a chance then.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
Remainers moan about brexiteers, this article is a prime example and classic Guardian shite. Brexiteers moan about remainers and most people just get on with their lives ignoring both.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
The more centrist party won in 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 and 2017 and arguably 2019. It also won most seats in 2010.
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
More centrist is not the same as centrist.
The Tories of 1992 were not centrist nor in 2017 and 2019, they were decidedly right of centre. Same goes for the GE of 2010 but Cameron moderated his stance because he needed to go into coalition.
Labour portrayed itself as centrist in 1997 but moved more left wing (particularly on cultural issues) as the elections moved on. It also remained a left wing party.
The closest it can be said a centrist party has been to political power is the Liberal-SDP alliance of the early 80s.
Blair was centrist, Cameron was certainly centrist during the coalition years.
It is true to say that you cannot win as a centrist if you also lose your base, see Clegg in 2015 or May in 2019 or indeed as Blair started to do from 2003 after Iraq (although New Labour was re elected in 2005 it still lost 48 seats).
Perhaps better to say the more centrist of the 2 main parties generally wins than an ideologically centrist party normally wins maybe
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Brexiteers need to moan about Remainers, we get that. Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
And some pro-Indy Scot PBers need to moan about how bad the rest of the U.K. is, the country is awful etc etc. We get that too.
And now we come to PBers resident in England needing to moan about pro-Indy Scots and how bad Scotland is under the EssEnnPee, which they do copiously and frequently.
The list is nearing completion.
I moaned about your attitude / hypocrisy not the fact you support independence.
If Scotland wants to become independent, so it should be. It’s a fallacy to think a historical legacy (aka The Union) is set in stone. I do think Scotland would suffer economically if it broke away but that’s for Scots to decide on, not me. I’ve made the same point before about Irish independence in 1921/22.
However, there is a decent enough case for Scottish independence without having to bang on about how shit the rest of the U.K. is.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
Yes, very interesting to read. What is the point in NI's membership of the UK when the UK government has separated from it against its will? I need to apply for an export license and fill in paperwork to ship products to Ballymena. What kind of "union" is that?
It is no union at all. Northern Ireland is almost a separate country from the UK now. The local economy is aligning with the Republic and even supermarkets like Sainsburys are now being supplied by Hendersons. Tesco has secured Irish meats and farm produce to reduce the Irish Sea hassle.
I know, and the transformation is barely believable it is that absolute. ROI used to be a bolt-on to the UK market, now ROI drives and NI is bolted on to them. Hendersons have always traded across the border but now their entire operating model has swung from a horizontal to a vertical axis.
It won't take long before people will scratch their heads and ask what the point of the union is. I don't think many people in England understand just how fundamental a thing it was when the UK as a trading nation was abolished
That understanding will come in time as everything gets more and more expensive and harder to import. In 20 years, maybe ....
The only thing the UK does is send money here. That could be funded from a mix of the Republic and EU Regional funds plus whatever the local economy can generate.
Could? Yes. Will be? Not convinced. Great Britain is thirteen times the size of Ireland; AIUI not nearly everyone in Ireland is thrilled at the prospect of having to pick up the tab for keeping Northern Ireland in the style to which it is presently accustomed (and that's without considering the small matter of welcoming hundreds of thousands of defeated, resentful loyalists into the fold.)
Besides which, if and when a border poll happens, expect the healthcare card to be played. The Irish system is substantially different: no Union, no NHS. The former may not be universally popular but the latter is ritually lionised by almost everyone - and people will absolutely loathe being made to cough up for GP appointments and hospital visits which they have been brought up to regard as free of charge by right.
Because of the example of Brexit, where a vote to sunder one Union was actually won, we are perhaps tempted to underestimate the challenge which confronts those seeking to break another. Brexit was only carried by a 52:48 margin, of course: if the UK were a net recipient of EU funds rather than a net contributor, the infamous red bus would never have taken to the road and the proposition would almost certainly have failed.
Money talks. To secede, first get rich.
Though interestingly, according to the article, a major platform of SF South of the border is to set up a state NHS type system, so it may well be more of a merger than a takeover in reunification.
Though the NI NHS is in a parlous state, that makes even the Welsh version look healthy.
The NI NHS is an utter basket case. The concept may be lionised but no one in NI is under any delusions. A population smaller than many GB cities and the waiting lists are measured in years...
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
And every week that goes by by the Corruption Party in government and apparent collusion by the police and the powers that be, the more likely it is that independence will happen. For all that Blackford and the SNP call for Liar to go they really want him to stay as it is self evident to all bar a few on here the damage that the government are doing to the Union.
Lst thing Blackford and Sturgeon want is Liar to go , suits them fine in their panto roles.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
I would also argue that the Tories were so deeply and widely unpopular by 97, that Labour didn't have to be either that Centrist or well-marshalled. That extra gave them 179. Just not being the Conservatives would have won them a majority then.
Spot on. I suspect the Monster Raving Loony Party would have won
David Sutch was such a lovely guy. The OMRLP rally in the Wheatsheaf Pub in Littleborough during the Littleborough & Saddleworth byelection was one of my earliest fun political memories.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
The more centrist party won in 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 and 2017 and arguably 2019. It also won most seats in 2010.
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
Am I missing something here? That's 8-6, and one of the 8 you put down as 'arguable', so it would seem that it's almost 50/50.
Arguably, it'd be more fun if there wasn't a pattern.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
Yes, very interesting to read. What is the point in NI's membership of the UK when the UK government has separated from it against its will? I need to apply for an export license and fill in paperwork to ship products to Ballymena. What kind of "union" is that?
It is no union at all. Northern Ireland is almost a separate country from the UK now. The local economy is aligning with the Republic and even supermarkets like Sainsburys are now being supplied by Hendersons. Tesco has secured Irish meats and farm produce to reduce the Irish Sea hassle.
I know, and the transformation is barely believable it is that absolute. ROI used to be a bolt-on to the UK market, now ROI drives and NI is bolted on to them. Hendersons have always traded across the border but now their entire operating model has swung from a horizontal to a vertical axis.
It won't take long before people will scratch their heads and ask what the point of the union is. I don't think many people in England understand just how fundamental a thing it was when the UK as a trading nation was abolished
That understanding will come in time as everything gets more and more expensive and harder to import. In 20 years, maybe ....
The only thing the UK does is send money here. That could be funded from a mix of the Republic and EU Regional funds plus whatever the local economy can generate.
Could? Yes. Will be? Not convinced. Great Britain is thirteen times the size of Ireland; AIUI not nearly everyone in Ireland is thrilled at the prospect of having to pick up the tab for keeping Northern Ireland in the style to which it is presently accustomed (and that's without considering the small matter of welcoming hundreds of thousands of defeated, resentful loyalists into the fold.)
Besides which, if and when a border poll happens, expect the healthcare card to be played. The Irish system is substantially different: no Union, no NHS. The former may not be universally popular but the latter is ritually lionised by almost everyone - and people will absolutely loathe being made to cough up for GP appointments and hospital visits which they have been brought up to regard as free of charge by right.
Because of the example of Brexit, where a vote to sunder one Union was actually won, we are perhaps tempted to underestimate the challenge which confronts those seeking to break another. Brexit was only carried by a 52:48 margin, of course: if the UK were a net recipient of EU funds rather than a net contributor, the infamous red bus would never have taken to the road and the proposition would almost certainly have failed.
Money talks. To secede, first get rich.
Though interestingly, according to the article, a major platform of SF South of the border is to set up a state NHS type system, so it may well be more of a merger than a takeover in reunification.
Though the NI NHS is in a parlous state, that makes even the Welsh version look healthy.
The NI NHS is an utter basket case. The concept may be lionised but no one in NI is under any delusions. A population smaller than many GB cities and the waiting lists are measured in years...
Maybe but will they want to pay for their GP’s visits?
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
My wife is an EU citizen and hasn't left. We are both deeply nostalgic for pre Brexit Britain. I suppose the nostalgia we feel is similar to that felt by Brexit voters in 2016, who hoped for a return of the pre mass immigration era. But the reality is that both worlds have passed. They are gone forever and aren't coming back. We have to make what we can of the new reality.
I think that is a realistic approach. The reality is that we will still have much higher immigration than many wanted because our economy has been fed a diet of unlimited labour for a long time and is addicted to it. The change towards higher productivity, better training, more capital investment, better wages etc will not happen overnight and possibly not even at all unless we prioritise it. We really need to focus on seeking to change these things, however we voted.
Agreed - the question is how. A starter for 10 - how do we grow productivity to drive real growth in the economy when we have just made trade difficult and goods more expensive than they need to be? Whatever efficiencies we can try to gain from productivity get more than offset in the loss of output from lower trade and higher costs.
This is why this Brexiteer keeps banging on about Boris's Border Operating Model not working. Aside from a few nutters nobody voted for Brexit because they wanted to be worse off. And yet worse off they are being made because your government are stupid and certain people provide them succour for stupid.
That is the fundamental flaw of Brexitism, which is heading to the end of its first lost decade, with no structural change happening to address the issues that drove it.
In part the reason for stagnant productivity is due to the stage of our post-manufacturing economy. In part due to poor skills, in part due to poor demographics, particularly in some regions. It simply isn't a problem that Brexit can fix. At best a distraction, and at worse an obstacle.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
Yes, very interesting to read. What is the point in NI's membership of the UK when the UK government has separated from it against its will? I need to apply for an export license and fill in paperwork to ship products to Ballymena. What kind of "union" is that?
It is no union at all. Northern Ireland is almost a separate country from the UK now. The local economy is aligning with the Republic and even supermarkets like Sainsburys are now being supplied by Hendersons. Tesco has secured Irish meats and farm produce to reduce the Irish Sea hassle.
I know, and the transformation is barely believable it is that absolute. ROI used to be a bolt-on to the UK market, now ROI drives and NI is bolted on to them. Hendersons have always traded across the border but now their entire operating model has swung from a horizontal to a vertical axis.
It won't take long before people will scratch their heads and ask what the point of the union is. I don't think many people in England understand just how fundamental a thing it was when the UK as a trading nation was abolished
The point of the Union was always a synthesis of benefit and feeling in varying proportions. As benefit recedes and only feeling is left (extreme feeling in the case of ideological Unionists both in NI and Scotland), the fall out could get very nasty.
It was noticeable during IndyRef1 that it was the BetterTogether side that consistently played the emotional card. The Yes team was a little too cerebral.
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
I would also argue that the Tories were so deeply and widely unpopular by 97, that Labour didn't have to be either that Centrist or well-marshalled. That extra gave them 179. Just not being the Conservatives would have won them a majority then.
Spot on. I suspect the Monster Raving Loony Party would have won
David Sutch was such a lovely guy. The OMRLP rally in the Wheatsheaf Pub in Littleborough during the Littleborough & Saddleworth byelection was one of my earliest fun political memories.
That area is also one of the most beautiful areas around. I always used to love going on a Sunday afternoon on the bus from Piccadilly to there.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
Scottish nationalists welcome leftwingers like you.
However Unionists, certainly right of centre or even centrist Unionists, would not feel welcome in an SNP led Scotland if indyref2 was allowed and the Yes side won it
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
The more centrist party won in 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 and 2017 and arguably 2019. It also won most seats in 2010.
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
More centrist is not the same as centrist.
The Tories of 1992 were not centrist nor in 2017 and 2019, they were decidedly right of centre. Same goes for the GE of 2010 but Cameron moderated his stance because he needed to go into coalition.
Labour portrayed itself as centrist in 1997 but moved more left wing (particularly on cultural issues) as the elections moved on. It also remained a left wing party.
The closest it can be said a centrist party has been to political power is the Liberal-SDP alliance of the early 80s.
Blair was centrist, Cameron was certainly centrist during the coalition years.
It is true to say that you cannot win as a centrist if you also lose your base, see Clegg in 2015 or May in 2019 or indeed as Blair started to do from 2003 after Iraq (although New Labour was re elected in 2005 it still lost 48 seats).
Perhaps better to say the more centrist of the 2 main parties generally wins than an ideologically centrist party normally wins maybe
I think that’s fair or, to be tautological but I suspect more precise, it’s the less extreme of the parties that wins generally.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
And every week that goes by by the Corruption Party in government and apparent collusion by the police and the powers that be, the more likely it is that independence will happen. For all that Blackford and the SNP call for Liar to go they really want him to stay as it is self evident to all bar a few on here the damage that the government are doing to the Union.
In fairness, I cannot think of a single PB poster who tries to contend that BJ is actually beneficial for the Union. Blocking IndyRef2 and making the Union more popular/less unpopular are not the same thing at all. The second is far harder, and BJ is simply too lazy.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
That's not a flaw.
That is very kind of you @kinabalu but I think it is. Someone has to take responsibility and I am leaving it to others to do that on my behalf.
In my more sombre moments I reflect on if my own general passivity in all things is a flaw, at least to the level I take it. I don't think eschewing such responsibility is at that point, but it makes me wonder.
If there's one thing about old age it's that you can't go on fighting all the battles all the time.
A federal Ireland with the North keeping Stormont and its own elections would address a lot of issues and might well be acceptable to a portion of the Unionist population. The Irish Sea border is certainly assisting people in thinking in that direction since that is almost how things stand at the moment.
But will not be for much longer once DUP ministers ban checks on goods going to and from NI and GB which Truss will not oppose
You truly are a fool They have no power to do such a thing. If they did have they would already have done so. The operation of the NI side of the GB NI hard border is with the NI Office, not the devolved administration.
They do.
The DUP ministers are about to rip the Irish Sea border to pieces.
Truss has correctly made clear the UK government will not do a thing to stop them as Boris has given her responsibility for it, the NI office will be powerless if Truss rightly orders them to do nothing
I know that you are fundamentally a parrot so won't understand this, so lets go slowly.
No, they don't. Read the article. The proposal is that the DUP "block" the checks. As they don;t have any power over them every other party on the executive has pointed out that it is a stunt. Because civil servants in the NI Office who run the border would be obliged to ignore the DUP.
Truss is saying they won't intervene because the government would implement the pull on checks. Because the NI Office runs them, not the assembly.
I have to assume that you know this, you aren't that ignorant. So you are repeating a lie thinking we are stupid. We are not. Perhaps you are?
Civil servants in NI report to the UK government. As Truss makes clear she will not block the decision of elected DUP ministers to block the checks.
And if that does not work the DUP have also made clear they will walk out of the Stormont Executive and effectively end the Good Friday Agreement until the Irish Sea border is removed
Correct - civil servants in NI report to the UK government. So Poots has zero power to order anything.
So why do you keep saying that he does?
It’s the same as his continual statements that the DUP will quite Stormont. They can’t because as soon as they do the last hurdles that are stopping abortions from occurring in NI can be removed by the Northern Ireland Secretary who needs the issue resolved before he becomes in contempt of court (latter doesn’t mean anything but the DUP quitting Stormont isn’t the win HYUFD thinks it will be.
Of course it is. It will stop DUP leakage to the TUV once the DUP quit Stormont until the Irish Sea border is removed.
Abortion is already legal in NI anyway even though the DUP opposed that. However the DUP have lost votes because of the NIP not abortion. Indeed the DUP have even won some votes from pro life Catholics over abortion
Abortions are currently not occurring in NI due to the DUP blocking hospitals from providing them.
That’s the point I’ve so far pointed out to you twice that you can’t grasp. The TUV can’t lose, stay in Stormont and the TUV talk about Borders, kill Stormont and there are a different set of issues ready to use.
Abortion is legal in NI but as I said is still a winning issue for the DUP to some degree in winning over pro life Catholics. TUV voters like the DUP's hardline on abortion and the DUP can still vote against abortion in or out of the executive.
The DUP's problem is TUV voters see them as being weak on the NI Protocol. Once the DUP walk out of Stormont's executive under Donaldson, as Foster was not prepared to do and collapse the NI executive until the Irish Sea border is removed, then TUV voters will start to return to the DUP again as the DUP effectively matches the TUV's hardline. Much like Brexit Party voters who left the Tories after May failed to deliver Brexit returned to the Tories once Boris made clear he would produce a harder Brexit deal and do everything to deliver Brexit, even proroguing Parliament
Voting intentions (23rd-26th Jan): Labour – 38% (-40) Undecided – 19% Will not vote – 18% (+10) Green Party – 8% (+7) Liberal Democrats – 4% (+1) SNP – 3% (-1) Conservatives – 2% (-1) Other – 8% (+5)
Aren't those self-selecting web polls?
On the one I checked, 75% of the sample was under-27, and they seem to think this is 'representative of British Muslims'.
If the Corbynites do form their own party, there’s an obvious structural threat to Labour here - namely the new party aligns with the Greens, effectively take it over (organisationally) and then targets the same core groups which are the bedrock of Labour support via their different ‘brands’ (urban professionals - the Greens; ethnic minority, predominately Muslim - the Corbynites). How does Labour counteract that?
By targeting the centre.
It would likely never happen absent PR anyway
Trouble with that is (a) the centre is quite mushy (b) that would mean Labour abandoning principles that even its more centrist members like eg abandoning its opposition to public schools (c) by its very nature, people in the centre don’t tend to do the heavy lifting etc because they are not enthused by a particular ideology (d) it would effectively mean the recreation of the Liberal-SDP alliance of the 80s (with Labour as the SDP) with all the negative baggage that comes with that.
New Labour won from the centre from 1997 to 2010 despite plenty of leftwingers voting Charles Kennedy LD, Green, Respect etc. It also did not abolish public schools.
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
New Labour won not because it was centrist but because people were pissed off with the Tories and, more importantly, Labour de-toxified the brand enough where many voters did not feel threatened enough to vote against it.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
I would also argue that the Tories were so deeply and widely unpopular by 97, that Labour didn't have to be either that Centrist or well-marshalled. That extra gave them 179. Just not being the Conservatives would have won them a majority then.
Spot on. I suspect the Monster Raving Loony Party would have won
David Sutch was such a lovely guy. The OMRLP rally in the Wheatsheaf Pub in Littleborough during the Littleborough & Saddleworth byelection was one of my earliest fun political memories.
That area is also one of the most beautiful areas around. I always used to love going on a Sunday afternoon on the bus from Piccadilly to there.
Its where I grew up... Sadly spoiled by 20 years of house building with no real ability to add more roads. Simply too many people for the space.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
Scottish nationalists welcome leftwingers like you.
However Unionists, certainly right of centre or even centrist Unionists, would not feel welcome in an SNP led Scotland if indyref2 was allowed and the Yes side won it
How would you know? You do spout such fact-free bollocks. Its like when you proceeded to lecture me about a place I lived that you can't even place on a map.
On the previous thread (apologies Pip) HYUFD claimed that Boris was hated by Remainers because we blame him for Brexit and hated on the Left because he won in 2019.
I don't blame Boris particularly for either.
1. The Brexit win was the brainchild of Dom Cummings but what amazes me about this is that over 5 years later, the people obsessing about Brexit aren't my former remainer friends, it's Brexiteers. They go on and on and on and on and on about it. Some of the articles are pure paranoia. It's not just people like HY and Leon on here, it's writers in the Telegraph and Paul Staines on order-order etc.
Although I'm sad about what happened in 2016 I don't spend my life thinking about it. I have a thousand other things that matter more right now and I don't envisage any bandwagon to rejoin: something which again I just find the most bizarre obsession amongst Brexiteers.
I also don't 'blame' Boris. Johnson jumped late onto the andwagon for pure career opportunism. But it was a decision of the British people in a fair vote.
It's almost as if this obsession amongst Brexiteers suggests that they are paranoid? Or mentally unwell. Seriously, and that's not a term I use lightly.
2. 2019. I don't blame Boris for winning in 2019. If I were to blame anyone it would be the Labour Party for electing as a leader a man who was unfit to lead them or to present himself to the country for high office.
But, again, ultimately it was the British people who chose Boris Johnson so how am I supposed to blame Boris?
As for the man himself, many people responded brilliantly with all the flaws in Boris Johnson so there's no need for me to repeat them. He is manifestly unfit for the job in every political and moral sense.
He will take down the tory party if they don't take him down first.
Regarding your comment about those obsessed with Brexit you are spot on. I hadn't considered this before but all my posts on Brexit are in response to Brexiters raising the issue. I don't believe I have ever made a post on the subject since the 2019 election otherwise. Could be wrong.
OK. Let’s check that theory. It’s quite simple to do
Who is the first person to raise the question of Brexit on this brand new thread? Ah yes. A demented Remainer @heatherner in a 12 paragraph comment which is all about Brexit where he moans that it is only Brexiteers that are obsessed with Brexit
lol
Not very scientific Leon :
a) sample of 1
b) refers to a thread full of it contradicting suggestion
c) Exaggeration - 10 paras
d) Doesn't answer example I have given (admittedly also a sample of 1)
Because it’s 3pm here and my day’s work is done and it’s actually too hot to do anything but lie inert in the pool I went and checked the last 5 threads to see who first mentions the Brexit word on each one
Yes yes. Peak Nerdery
It’s an interesting exercise. In three of the threads it is definite Remainers. @IanB2@TimS and @Heathener
@MISTY who is so new to the site it is hard to say, but I’d guess perhaps Leave, but I don’t wish to presume
So the theory that it’s brexiteers who keep bringing it up unprompted is provably and empirically wrong. Which is quite a satisfying waste of my time
Time wasted well. An early glimpse of retirement for you my friend. ;-)
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
Bit harsh on Tomsø. We went for a week a few years ago, hired a car and explored the area - the scenery is spectacular. Great seafood too (though eye-waveringly expensive).
Saw the Northern Lights on day 5 too, so all good. Will go back someday.
Edit: Lol - "eye-waveringly expensive" - I couldn't bear to look at the prices.
I went to Tromso, on the last day went to the botanical garden near the university for a walk. It was completely covered in snow. Brilliant.
There's just enough there for a short week - museums, walks, cable car onto mountain, boat trips, I think. I ran the Half-Marathon (but OLD, GRAY, etc etc yadda yadda), so had to have a day or two in prep.
On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
I am haunted by the figure of Bill Bryson’s grandfather (IIRC) who became so bored in retirement he used to carefully fill in all the “o”s in books with a pen
Bryson found this inexplicable until he went to Tromso to look for the Northern Lights but had to wait three weeks - with nothing else to do. By the third week he got out his pen…
When my father retired, he was really looking forward to it - lots more time to do his favourite things, like reading French literature. After a few months, he commented that a problem was that many of his interests weren't scalable - he actually didn't want to read literature 6 or 7 hours a day. But he adjusted, gave space to second-level things that he'd never given time to at all. Towards his death, even with mild dementia, he said he was happier than he'd ever been - something that warms me whenever I think back about him.
It's one model. Another is just to defy retirement. I'm 72 next week, and have three enjoyable paid jobs and one unpaid job (CLP Chair). I can see myself scaling that back gradually if illness or just tiredness start to appear, but just switching off and doing nothing lacks appeal. Perhaps you should plan to continute knapping flints, writing about travel as you do so well, or whatever you currently enjoy, and shrug off each age milestone.
The internet helps, either way. Unless you go blind, you can pursue any interest whatever from an armchair, with any number of contacts sharing that interest. Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently with that.
I retired at 65 and was told by my colleagues that after a couple of weeks they'd see me back. I think I went back to do a couple of projects for a few weeks, then called that a day. I did, though, do a couple of projects for other people, on a very part-time basis, but then at 70 called it a day, professionally. What with insurance, and professional registration fees and assorted requirements it was too demanding. Mrs C and I did a few cricket tours, watching England, and of course spent some family time with grandchildren. As some were in Thailand we spent some time there, and used it as a base for travelling. We had some European holidays trips, too. Back home we both joined the u3a and took part in activities there. And we joined interest groups in the town to which we'd moved. It's been more difficult, travelling wise over the last few year, what with the pandemic and me getting somewhat less mobile, but we both use the internet and especially Zoom and FaceTime. And, of course, we read.
So I agree with Mr P; Bill Bryson's grandfather might have felt differently if he's had t'internet!.
My mum died suddenly last Sunday aged 84, in poor health physically (confined to her house) but mentally still sharp.
Despite the restrictions of Covid, I think her past couple of years have been some of her happiest because of one thing: FaceTime.
She couldn't/wouldn't use a computer but we persuaded her to try an iPad for FaceTime and she got the hang of it and loved seeing and chatting to her grandchildren, who were good at calling her regularly. I was able to speak to her on it most days, too.
So thank-you Apple and the internet for that.
May I send you and your family deepest sympathy at the loss of your mother
It is good she was so happy notwithstanding covid, and it is grandchildren who provide so much joy for us as grandparents
Agreed but their overwhelming desire is to save the planet
You might be based and pilled but you know nothing about the Greens. Our overwhelming desire is to be proved right. We know the planet can't be saved at this point.
The Greens are the most entryism resistant of all the parties. We are too diverse, ill-disciplined and, in many cases, utterly disconnected from mainstream political thought.
Also, a large proportion of the Corbynites are culturally working class who would be suspected of having only one type of vinegar in their kitchens. It just doesn't work.
Many greens seem utterly disconnected from reality though. Looking at the Scottish variant MSP's they are a bunch of crazy ne'er do wells, nutjobs and downright nasties. How anyone could vote for that bunch of losers is beyond me, they would struggle to spell Green to boot..
But it’s not insightful for the reasons the writer thinks
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Suspect they loved what Britain was, not the 2022 "fuck em" version". I don't like this version either, though that isn't so much Britain as England. There is a lot less "fuck em" up here.
And before anyone says "if you don't like it [England] you can fuck off", I already did...
They had an attachment to a romanticised version of Britain. Pretty similar to the hardcore brexiteers.
Most remainers and brexiteers are pretty normal people with normal lives just getting in with it. It is this hardcore of obsessives either side that keep banging on.
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
My wife is an EU citizen and hasn't left. We are both deeply nostalgic for pre Brexit Britain. I suppose the nostalgia we feel is similar to that felt by Brexit voters in 2016, who hoped for a return of the pre mass immigration era. But the reality is that both worlds have passed. They are gone forever and aren't coming back. We have to make what we can of the new reality.
I think that is a realistic approach. The reality is that we will still have much higher immigration than many wanted because our economy has been fed a diet of unlimited labour for a long time and is addicted to it. The change towards higher productivity, better training, more capital investment, better wages etc will not happen overnight and possibly not even at all unless we prioritise it. We really need to focus on seeking to change these things, however we voted.
Agreed - the question is how. A starter for 10 - how do we grow productivity to drive real growth in the economy when we have just made trade difficult and goods more expensive than they need to be? Whatever efficiencies we can try to gain from productivity get more than offset in the loss of output from lower trade and higher costs.
This is why this Brexiteer keeps banging on about Boris's Border Operating Model not working. Aside from a few nutters nobody voted for Brexit because they wanted to be worse off. And yet worse off they are being made because your government are stupid and certain people provide them succour for stupid.
That is the fundamental flaw of Brexitism, which is heading to the end of its first lost decade, with no structural change happening to address the issues that drove it.
In part the reason for stagnant productivity is due to the stage of our post-manufacturing economy. In part due to poor skills, in part due to poor demographics, particularly in some regions. It simply isn't a problem that Brexit can fix. At best a distraction, and at worse an obstacle.
It's actually worse than displacement activity and a continuation of the neglect of the real issues. A refusal to face up to the facts of Brexit means people chasing chimeras that do actual damage above and beyond the damage of Brexit itself.
On topic: I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support: - Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15. - Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters. - The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature. - I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist. - So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000. - (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support: - In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes. - In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015. - There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad. - Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote. - That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here). - Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
The big difference between Batley & Spen and Southend West is that this is a government party defence at a time when the PM has dire ratings.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Fine by me. The longer Johnson lasts the deeper the hole the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party finds itself in. And the harder it becomes for Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats to ally themselves with thoroughly discredited ‘Muscular Unionism’.
However, I do feel sorry for the mainland Europeans being used as pawns in the British state’s transparent Divide & Rule modus operandi. Luckily, the big boys in the room, the EU and the USA, see the self-wounded beast as a shadow of what it once was.
Whilst inevitably you view all this through the lens of independence, you’re unfair and short sighted.
You’re unfair because it is unreasonable to tarnish unionists with the same brush as Boris. You may like to discredit unionists generally in the game of politics, but Boris is out on his own now. On the whole unionists, are decent people you just happen to disagree with on a point you care about. Boris isn’t decent.
If you think you can escape all this madness and problems this man in number 10 through independence you’re sadly mistaken. Having a this sort of untrustworthy government in England will make an independent Scotlands life very difficult. You will just be even less able to influence it. Much as Brexit has left the U.K. with less influence.
That’s not an argument against independence, just a assertion that there is work to be done you cannot escape and to claim that Boris is somehow representative of England or Unionism will shoot yourself in the foot.
I disagree. I think I’m reasonably fair, and I’m definitely not short sighted. The road to independence is a marathon, not a 60 yard dash. We understand that, Unionists rarely do.
It is perfectly fair to tarnish all Unionists with the same brush as their chosen leaders. If they’re daft enough to pick Johnson et al as their leaders then they deserve the opprobrium they garner. If you think all Unionists are “decent people” then you ought to attend a few of their marches. Don’t bring the bairns!
Of course it would be better for England and all of her neighbours if England had a sane, competent and non-corrupt government, but life goes on in France, Flanders, the Netherlands , Scotland, Ireland and Wales even as England implodes. We do feel sorry for you, but like an alcoholic, at the end of the day only the English can save themselves.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
That's not a flaw.
That is very kind of you @kinabalu but I think it is. Someone has to take responsibility and I am leaving it to others to do that on my behalf.
In my more sombre moments I reflect on if my own general passivity in all things is a flaw, at least to the level I take it. I don't think eschewing such responsibility is at that point, but it makes me wonder.
If there's one thing about old age it's that you can't go on fighting all the battles all the time.
I'll take your word for it, though at 35 I think I should have fought a few more battles than I have thus far!
Not one of them, not a single one, even mentions the possibility that they understand why the British voted to Leave on the grounds of sovereignty and democracy. Most of them claim to love the UK, they do not love it, because love means understanding. Nor does the concept that Britain is admirable BECAUSE it is different and seeks self-rule and tries to be properly democratic even enter their tiny minds
Fuck em
Your post is a great example of world leading empathy and self awareness.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
I suspect that most Unionists will stay on in Independent Scotland too, but it doesn't mean that they will like it, and mourn their losses.
If it comes to that I am not sure what we would do to be honest. A lot depends on family which is more important than countries but I can see the balance of our family edging south over the next few years. As a Scots lawyer I will have to hang around until I retire. After that I am not so sure. But the views of those who choose to remain will still be more relevant than the views of those who choose to depart.
Scotland - at least my corner of it - is already far more welcoming to incomers than England is. I can't see how independence suddenly creates an anti-English or anti-Unionist hate that would force people out
How are you judging these things? If my corner of England is very welcoming does that prove all England is? If my corner is less so does that prove the other way?
How am I judging it? I've lived in various parts of England, I've seen the way that the English national psyche has turned more insular and nasty towards the other (the rise of the BNP then UKIP then Brexit and "fuck em" upthread). That England is no longer as open and tolerant as it was feels self-evident though I know the fuck em brigade will disagree.
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
Oh good grief. I know actual snowflakes who are less snowflakey than you, and recently-crippled jackals that are less whiney
Ironically they seem heavily formed by coming from Rochdale, home of the race riots. No doubt living in a massively less diverse country now feels very harmonious and welcoming.
See Boris is off playing the statesman in Eastern Europe to save his skin. It’s so transparently cynical and pathetic you almost have to give him some credit.
Because maybe trying to avoid World War III with Putin, is a somewhat more important use of his time right now than arguing about his wife bringing a birthday cake to the office two years ago?
And of course he was such a success as Foreign Secretary, (a lady in an iraqi prison stirs...another he threw under the bus)
Edit : Iranian
Iranian woman, Iranian prison.
British passport holder. What's your point, caller?
So is Ghislaine Maxwell. We are not trying to get her out of an American prison.
So are you suggesting that Nasrani was rightfully convicted?
I suspect she was.
Without prejudicing her possible release, could you explain why you suspect that?
Because of what Boris Johnson said. I suspect he was guilty of speaking the truth. That’s not to excuse him, a foreign sec should know what to say. But I suspect it was the truth.
If you had any serious grounds to have a belief one way or the other, you would presumably not be sharing them on here. And Johnson's position is no different whether it was true or not. Indeed if it's false he has merely dropped a uk citizen in the shit, if true he has both done that and compromised uk security.
Spot on. I have liked but wanted to comment as well, particularly as I was going to make the same post. Regardless of whether true or not what Boris said was an appalling blunder. I assume an accident, but if it were me I would struggle to live with myself knowing what I had done.
To add to that, in fairness that is probably a flaw in my own personality. I would hate to ever be in a position where what I did or said impacted other people's lives so much, but people have to (Policemen, Politicians, Lawyers, Doctors, etc, etc). I often think of David Waddington and the Stefan Kisko case because it is so sad. David Waddington later became Governor of Bermuda which had the death penalty at the time. I can't understand how he could have taken that position. It would haunt me.
That's not a flaw.
That is very kind of you @kinabalu but I think it is. Someone has to take responsibility and I am leaving it to others to do that on my behalf.
In my more sombre moments I reflect on if my own general passivity in all things is a flaw, at least to the level I take it. I don't think eschewing such responsibility is at that point, but it makes me wonder.
I console myself that I do, and have always, campaigned on various injustices, sometimes at the cost of my mental health, but I do think I am a coward on not being able to confront or decide on stuff that could be life changing for specific individuals rather than anonymous groups.
Comments
The only thing keeping the 2 main parties together is FPTP. If we had PR the Corbynite left of Labour would form their own party, most of the remaining ex Remainers in the Tory party would form their own party too and RefUK would win seats as well
I suppose the nostalgia we feel is similar to that felt by Brexit voters in 2016, who hoped for a return of the pre mass immigration era.
But the reality is that both worlds have passed. They are gone forever and aren't coming back. We have to make what we can of the new reality.
One thing they can bring to the Greens is the promise of new MPs in heavily Muslim seats plus a more effective organisation. That might be too tempting for the Greens to resist.
10 years to go for me, but thinking about it more and more. Work is pretty grim at the moment, with endless backlogs. I was in a meeting with our outpatient manager on Wednesday, and not only are we not making progress, each month the hole we are in grows bigger. I have serious doubts as to whether things can be restored at all, let alone soon.
Roughly a minimum of 10x those who chose to leave, even after Covid destroyed many EU citizens jobs here.
But, whatever. Remainers need to moan, we get that.
Since then we have had old Harrovian PMs from Peel to Palmerston to Baldwin and Churchill and umpteen Etonian PMs from Gladstone and Salisbury to Eden, Macmillan and Home, Cameron and Boris
Indeed it's the very lifeblood of some PBers.
If you want to look at how much people feared Labour back in 1992, consider that the Tory vote then has never been exceeded by any party ever in any election, despite the increase in the size of the electorate. That goes for the 2019 Tory victory as well.
Crucially, New Labour also combined that with a ruthless organisational and PR strategy.
1997 was an aberration in British politics caused by a very unique set of circumstances. Centrist parties generally don’t win.
Besides which, if and when a border poll happens, expect the healthcare card to be played. The Irish system is substantially different: no Union, no NHS. The former may not be universally popular but the latter is ritually lionised by almost everyone - and people will absolutely loathe being made to cough up for GP appointments and hospital visits which they have been brought up to regard as free of charge by right.
Because of the example of Brexit, where a vote to sunder one Union was actually won, we are perhaps tempted to underestimate the challenge which confronts those seeking to break another. Brexit was only carried by a 52:48 margin, of course: if the UK were a net recipient of EU funds rather than a net contributor, the infamous red bus would never have taken to the road and the proposition would almost certainly have failed.
Money talks. To secede, first get rich.
(Personally I think we should treat this kind of by-election like any other where for instance the sitting MP died of a heart attack -- you could make a case there too if you liked that the MP should be replaced by one of the same party. AIUI some elected positions in the US work like that, with a replacement selected by a governor or similar figure to serve until the next scheduled election.)
The only times since WW2 the more centrist of the 2 main parties has lost were 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 and 1979
This is why this Brexiteer keeps banging on about Boris's Border Operating Model not working. Aside from a few nutters nobody voted for Brexit because they wanted to be worse off. And yet worse off they are being made because your government are stupid and certain people provide them succour for stupid.
Though the NI NHS is in a parlous state, that makes even the Welsh version look healthy.
https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/latest-opinion-polls/
The Tories of 1992 were not centrist nor in 2017 and 2019, they were decidedly right of centre. Same goes for the GE of 2010 but Cameron moderated his stance because he needed to go into coalition.
Labour portrayed itself as centrist in 1997 but moved more left wing (particularly on cultural issues) as the elections moved on. It also remained a left wing party.
The closest it can be said a centrist party has been to political power is the Liberal-SDP alliance of the early 80s.
Abortion is already legal in NI anyway even though the DUP opposed that. However the DUP have lost votes because of the NIP not abortion. Indeed the DUP have even won some votes from pro life Catholics over abortion
Johnsonite Tories like HY lie because they believe the general public will accept the lies. That they don;t know the facts or even accept what is in front of them. It is the Trumpification of our politics that should worry all of us who actually have standards.
I have disagreed - profoundly disagreed - with previous generations of politicians. But none of them were openly corrupt, brazenly lying, undermining the institutions of the state for their own self-promotion. Johnson does all, and the lickspittles who support him share the same lack of values. Its very very worrying.
Turned out governments tended to be unpopular.
I, for one, was shocked.
Condolences on your loss @benpointer but good to hear that she went in such a way
I think it is easy for rightwingers to underestimate how fundamental differences of ideology are on the left. Sure, personality politics comes into it, but ideology more.
Indeed one thing I like about the Greens is their opposition to cults of personality.
That extra gave them 179. Just not being the Conservatives would have won them a majority then.
Gray Report Out Today!
Gray Report! Our Whitehall Liars Exit Rapidly!
The list is nearing completion.
The Greens are the most entryism resistant of all the parties. We are too diverse, ill-disciplined and, in many cases, utterly disconnected from mainstream political thought.
Also, a large proportion of the Corbynites are culturally working class who would be suspected of having only one type of vinegar in their kitchens. It just doesn't work.
SKS claiming Labour will tackle the cost of living crisis
As their own finances plunge to the verge of bankruptcy
That’s the point I’ve so far pointed out to you twice that you can’t grasp. The TUV can’t lose, stay in Stormont and the TUV talk about Borders, kill Stormont and there are a different set of issues ready to use.
It is true to say that you cannot win as a centrist if you also lose your base, see Clegg in 2015 or May in 2019 or indeed as Blair started to do from 2003 after Iraq (although New Labour was re elected in 2005 it still lost 48 seats).
Perhaps better to say the more centrist of the 2 main parties generally wins than an ideologically centrist party normally wins maybe
If Scotland wants to become independent, so it should be. It’s a fallacy to think a historical legacy (aka The Union) is set in stone. I do think Scotland would suffer economically if it broke away but that’s for Scots to decide on, not me. I’ve made the same point before about Irish independence in 1921/22.
However, there is a decent enough case for Scottish independence without having to bang on about how shit the rest of the U.K. is.
In part the reason for stagnant productivity is due to the stage of our post-manufacturing economy. In part due to poor skills, in part due to poor demographics, particularly in some regions. It simply isn't a problem that Brexit can fix. At best a distraction, and at worse an obstacle.
However Unionists, certainly right of centre or even centrist Unionists, would not feel welcome in an SNP led Scotland if indyref2 was allowed and the Yes side won it
The heat ebbs and then, suddenly, everyone comes alive. There is a 400 year old Dutch colonial market which throbs with vivacity
And Scotland? I totally accept that my corner is not automatically representative. But then again I look at the Scottish government's "New Scots" policy and them having just won a 4th term on a record vote in a record turnout and conclude that there must be some merit in my argument.
There are so many wonderful people in England. There will be many nobbers in Scotland. But the direction of travel south of the wall feels a lot worse than north of it - and I have friends living in England in despair at what is happening to society.
The DUP's problem is TUV voters see them as being weak on the NI Protocol. Once the DUP walk out of Stormont's executive under Donaldson, as Foster was not prepared to do and collapse the NI executive until the Irish Sea border is removed, then TUV voters will start to return to the DUP again as the DUP effectively matches the TUV's hardline. Much like Brexit Party voters who left the Tories after May failed to deliver Brexit returned to the Tories once Boris made clear he would produce a harder Brexit deal and do everything to deliver Brexit, even proroguing Parliament
There's just enough there for a short week - museums, walks, cable car onto mountain, boat trips, I think. I ran the Half-Marathon (but OLD, GRAY, etc etc yadda yadda), so had to have a day or two in prep.
I think extrapolating from Batley & Spen 2016 is the right approach here, and the question is - what is the worst the Tories can realistically do. So here is my back of envelope stab.
Conservative support:
- Labour retained 80% of their vote count in B&S from GE 15.
- Let's say this was 60% of Labour 2015 voters plus a decent chunk of solidarity vote LDs, Cons and even a few UKIP voters.
- The opposition being fringe to far right after a far right murder also helped drive solidarity vote in B&S. Likely to be less so where the murder is Islamist in nature.
- I don't recall the slightest hint that the fate of Corbyn rested on B&S. For Boris, there is just that - the tiniest, slightest hint - that this might be influential, but it's hardly the zeitgeist.
- So, I think sub-50% GE19 Tory turnout, plus much lower solidarity voting will halve the Tory vote, but there will be some, and I'm thinking the floor figure is around 12000.
- (Tory GE vote retention I'd certainly expect to be comfortably higher, even with abstentionism than the 34% achieved in North Shrops where LD as a ready alternative).
Others support:
- In normal circumstances and looking at B&S and Southend West over the years, the optimal ceiling vote for fringe parties is around 20% of GE turnout, which would equate to around 9000 votes.
- In B&S 2016, fringe parties won 3900 votes, something under half the 8000-10000 won in GE2015, 2019, and in BE 2021. UKIP plus ED were just shy of 8000 in SW in 2015.
- There is a decent overlap between those who would consider the fringe and those who still think Boris is a bit of a lad.
- Campaign hasn't had the sort of prominence needed to set light to a third party vote.
- That said Boris's unpopularity may drive a few who would never normally consider the fringe to do so (indeed I've said I'd consider it if I were a voter here).
- Nonetheless, I think we're suboptimal for a fringe party here and, even if I expect the vote to concentrate heavily to UKIP, I'd put a 6000 top value on what I think they can achieve.
So, I think worst realistic result for the Tories here looks about a 65/30 win over UKIP, well short of the 86/bits of B&S 2016.
Anything below 12000 and 2/3 of the vote is utterly dire territory if we're being honest.
It is good she was so happy notwithstanding covid, and it is grandchildren who provide so much joy for us as grandparents
How anyone could vote for that bunch of losers is beyond me, they would struggle to spell Green to boot..
They had an attachment to a romanticised version of Britain. Pretty similar to the hardcore brexiteers.
Most remainers and brexiteers are pretty normal people with normal lives just getting in with it. It is this hardcore of obsessives either side that keep banging on.
It is perfectly fair to tarnish all Unionists with the same brush as their chosen leaders. If they’re daft enough to pick Johnson et al as their leaders then they deserve the opprobrium they garner. If you think all Unionists are “decent people” then you ought to attend a few of their marches. Don’t bring the bairns!
Of course it would be better for England and all of her neighbours if England had a sane, competent and non-corrupt government, but life goes on in France, Flanders, the Netherlands , Scotland, Ireland and Wales even as England implodes. We do feel sorry for you, but like an alcoholic, at the end of the day only the English can save themselves.