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The Tories should sweep the board in Southend West – politicalbetting.com
The Tories should sweep the board in Southend West – politicalbetting.com
Double digit poll deficits. The Parliamentary Party in open civil war*. On the wrong side of the public on the biggest issues of the day. Yes: October 2016 was a terrible time for Labour to defend a by-election in Batley and Spen.
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In fairness to Mike, who tipped the <50% bet, the polls have shifted in the Tories favour in the intervening week. They could easily have gone the other way. Johnson saved by the incompetence of the Metropolitan Police.
I don't blame Boris particularly for either.
1. The Brexit win was the brainchild of Dom Cummings but what amazes me about this is that over 5 years later, the people obsessing about Brexit aren't my former remainer friends, it's Brexiteers. They go on and on and on and on and on about it. Some of the articles are pure paranoia. It's not just people like HY and Leon on here, it's writers in the Telegraph and Paul Staines on order-order etc.
Although I'm sad about what happened in 2016 I don't spend my life thinking about it. I have a thousand other things that matter more right now and I don't envisage any bandwagon to rejoin: something which again I just find the most bizarre obsession amongst Brexiteers.
I also don't 'blame' Boris. Johnson jumped late onto the andwagon for pure career opportunism. But it was a decision of the British people in a fair vote.
It's almost as if this obsession amongst Brexiteers suggests that they are paranoid? Or mentally unwell. Seriously, and that's not a term I use lightly.
2. 2019. I don't blame Boris for winning in 2019. If I were to blame anyone it would be the Labour Party for electing as a leader a man who was unfit to lead them or to present himself to the country for high office.
But, again, ultimately it was the British people who chose Boris Johnson so how am I supposed to blame Boris?
As for the man himself, many people responded brilliantly with all the flaws in Boris Johnson so there's no need for me to repeat them. He is manifestly unfit for the job in every political and moral sense.
He will take down the tory party if they don't take him down first.
The perception that Johnson was saved by police corruption is not positive for anyone. Better to resolve this by a jovial slap on the wrist for all involved, and move on.
On topic, just had a quick look at the Southend Echo's website and there's no mention of election activity whatsoever. Shall try and contact my grandson and his wife, both Southend W voters, over the weekend, and get a thought or two.
Periodic incompetence exists in all individuals and organisations, even when corrupt behaviour is totally absent. That is part of the human condition. Until AI takes over…
The first staging post is when sunset is after 5pm. This year in London that will be 7 February. The other is when “last light” is after 6pm. That’s 21 February.
Getting there!
Down in Cornwall you can get the first balmy winds of spring in the 3rd week of February
Last winter/sprint was the opposite of balmy, however. I seem to recall it lasting until May
Incompetence (periodic or otherwise) is a permanent feature of the human condition. It is a fallacy to believe it can be eradicated.
Well worth a read
However, I do feel sorry for the mainland Europeans being used as pawns in the British state’s transparent Divide & Rule modus operandi. Luckily, the big boys in the room, the EU and the USA, see the self-wounded beast as a shadow of what it once was.
I am on turnout of 30-40%, and 40%+; Tory vote share over 80%., for the price of a pizza in a box.
If I lived there I would spoil my ballot.
Stinker of a headache this morning.
Ireland
SF 34%
FF 24%
FG 22%
N Ireland
SF 25%
DUP 17%
All 14%
UUP 14%
TUV 12%
SDLP 11%
I am perhaps incompetent 10% of the time.
You are perhaps incompetent 5% of the time.
Robert Smithson is perhaps incompetent 2% of the time.
Fair dos. We’re probably fairly typical.
What is hard to stomach is when a head of government is incompetent 80% of the time. But Conservative MPs seem to be quite relaxed about that.
The only possible exception is those who felt that we had to leave, no matter what or how, as from a burning building.
This isn't an argument for a quick rejoin, but it does mean that the paranoia is likely to go on for quite some time.
You’re unfair because it is unreasonable to tarnish unionists with the same brush as Boris. You may like to discredit unionists generally in the game of politics, but Boris is out on his own now. On the whole unionists, are decent people you just happen to disagree with on a point you care about. Boris isn’t decent.
If you think you can escape all this madness and problems this man in number 10 through independence you’re sadly mistaken. Having a this sort of untrustworthy government in England will make an independent Scotlands life very difficult. You will just be even less able to influence it. Much as Brexit has left the U.K. with less influence.
That’s not an argument against independence, just a assertion that there is work to be done you cannot escape and to claim that Boris is somehow representative of England or Unionism will shoot yourself in the foot.
London
Lab 47%
Con 21%
LD 16%
Grn 9%
Rest of South
Con 39%
Lab 35%
LD 13%
Grn 8%
Midlands and Wales
Lab 40%
Con 35%
LD 9%
North
Lab 44%
Con 32%
Grn 7%
LD 7%
Scotland
SNP 53%
Lab 18%
Con 18%
LD 6%
(YouGov / The Times Survey; Sample Size: 1,656; 26th - 27th January 2022)
Are the Liberal Democrats nudging up in London? Could be a good May for them. How would it look if they overtook the Conservatives in the capital and former fiefdom of the prime minister?
Definite signs of Con recovery in the Midlands.
Nonetheless it’s an interesting read. However he ignores the greatest obstacle of all, on the road to any Irish unity. As long as there is a threat of violence, from either side, it won’t happen
The loyalists got punchy over a few customs controls in the Irish Sea. A poll on unity would lead to bombs and murders
It’s not going to happen for a generation or two, which in practical, political terms is never
Ireland should aspire to some kind of co-sovereignty, where both flags fly. The position of Ulster is already blurred. Just blur it some more
One day the English centre-right will grow up. But only post-PR and post-dissolution.
The only side to have done that on this tour are the Lions, when Bracey scored 113 and Foakes 73 in a losing cause.
And got sent home for their troubles on the basis England were amply covered. So amply that Sam Billings had to be called up.
Whoever is making the decisions on tour parties needs to be not only sacked but barred from working in English cricket. Try and get them coaching the Aussies.
However, the logic fails because Boris Johnson is most unlikely to make things better. It's more probable on past form he will make some silly gaffe about Ukraine being Russia's borderland and precipitate the invasion.
Just watching a France24 Sat AM programme about how to make Cheese Fondu.
Coming soon, Prawn Cocktails ...
Quite frankly he would have more impact on the outside world and Putin if people could believe a word he says. He is demonstrably untrustworthy.
You are wasted as a quack
These are very dangerous times and we have a lying buffoon as a Prime Minister, who is deluded enough to see himself as a reincarnation of Winston Churchill.
There was no cake...🎂 Carrie Johnson sent messages to Downing Street staff offering to bring a cake to a birthday party for the Prime Minister that she instigated during the first lockdown, the Sue Gray inquiry has been told
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/28/carrie-johnson-offered-bring-cake-boris-johnsons-lockdown-busting/?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1643444703-1
Confused now
We cannot join an organisation like that unless we have some say over its direction. Which will never happen unless we are (a) full members and (b) have at least an equal, preferably greater, say than France and Germany.
Incidentally one of the ironies of Brexit is we have ended up with a government very much in the image of the worst aspects of the EU - corrupt, lazy, incompetent, run by failures and retreads for their own benefit, incapable of following rules and sodding everything up in the name of an ideology they can neither understand nor feel able to express in full.
But that irony is less pressing than the problem of Northern Ireland.
https://twitter.com/aiannucci/status/1487325505925832704?s=21
More likely to either aggravate tensions or result in national humiliation, going on his past performance.
Or a high profile affair (with a police officer, ideally).
Small fire at Chequers? Or set off a grenade is Estonia.
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1487342161616150531
We need a Schrödinger's Northern Ireland where it's both in the UK market, and the EU market, and the rules are different and there's no border anywhere.
Just don't peak in the box.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/brand-boris-permanently-damaged-with-voters-say-pollsters-as-johnson-fights-to-stave-off-confidence-vote
Another disappointment for him must be the US response which has been surprisingly robust. Of course it is not the US who is gambling with 2-3m refugees pouring into Western Europe but the EU and, indirectly, us.
So we need to find a way of saving face for Putin so he has an alternative to war he can live with. I am not sure I am seeing it.
Edit: But subsamples, presumably, mind.
Morning, Malky. Windy outside from Storm Malik but no damage to our place - blue sky in between the scudding clouds. Hope RP, Eabhal et al are OK.
Who is the first person to raise the question of Brexit on this brand new thread? Ah yes. A demented Remainer @heatherner in a 12 paragraph comment which is all about Brexit where he moans that it is only Brexiteers that are obsessed with Brexit
lol
The observers we don't need are inspectors, lawyers and associated others trying to ensure that NI rules strictly and 100% comply with either EU or UK rules and that in Barnier's words the "integrity" of the border isn't compromised.
The May elections will be a bloodbath
My first pass for horses today. Cheltenham looks lik eit will be great racing.
Treble, all short odds but a treble gets you 4-1
Third Time Lucki 1:35 Doncaster
Chantry House 2:30 Cheltenham
Champ 3:05 Cheltenham
Oscar Elite EW bet 1:20 Cheltenham
I do wonder if annexing Belarus is the real objective. The Russians now have a big army there, and the recent history of protests did carry risk of a free and democratic Belarus. That would have been something that Putin would not want.
UKIP are standing for starters which they did not in Batley and Spand they are a recognised national party, getting 12% nationally in 2015 and 17% in Southend West. The pro cannabis legalisation Pyschadaelic party will also likely get a few votes from left liberals
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1487335579490697217?s=20&t=zNnJV8gWrvK-XspN8id0UA
British passports aren't recognised for dual nationals in their other nation.
And she was in prison and having her sentence extended before Boris ever spoke. Blame the Iranians for her being there, nobody else.
Trying to blame Boris takes the focus off the Iranians where it belongs.
However that doesn't mean we shouldn't keep trying to eradicate it. We're not perfect but we can aspire to high standards at least and require those we give power over us to be better than average in these and other matters.
Insofar as Russian vox pops are worth anything, from what I’ve heard on R4 there seems to be a significant section of Russians who are willing to say they don’t think there’ll be a war or it would be stupid if there was one. Perhaps Putin the wise statesman and peacemaker might have his fans.
His diplomatic contributions will be quietly ignored. As usual the US, Germany and France will decide policy.
In walks a slightly shocked looking local owner, who announces that Maggie had gone, followed by a spontaneous cheer from the Brits and Irish. Foreigners often fail to understand how unpopular leaders are domestically. Something that we should consider both in Russia and Ukraine BTW.
Ukraine not to join NATO? I recall reading years ago that would never happen precisely because of the absorption of Crimea and the east, that NATO would not want to admit a nation with an existing active territorial dispute with Russia. So what else did he think to achieve?
Maybe Putin's plan was to snaffle (more formally) part of the eastern mainland of Ukraine, and he's been surprised by the response by the West?
The danger is that we lose sight of the objective of truth; and that incompetence and corruption become an accepted part of public life. However, that is exactly the road Johnson is leading us down. He makes small gains for the purpose of survival and convenience, at the expense of great long term damage.
It is like a comedy script...
For as we know referendums are unpredictable. If Starmer becomes PM and needs SNP confidence and supply he would allow indyref2. This Tory government however as long as it is in power never will
1. She has uncovered some serious shit that the police really need to dig into with a clear slate. Like Perverting the Course of Justice
2. Its a cover-up. Doesn't look good for the system to have the PM and civil service breaking the rules on such a grand scale, so go all in and have a compliant Met bury it.
Still not sure which it is. Would be good news for Boris and his off-shore fan club if it wasn't for this simple truth: there is more to come. Boris is not an honest politician, not a competent politician and is almost certain to have done a lot more than we already know. And thats not just parties, its the flat refurb, PPE contracts, the whole smash.
So the "he'll get away with this and people will move on" hope is built on this being the lot. Such hopes have been expressed before. And every time more pain is leaked to the press...