Punters give Johnson just a 32% chance of surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

OldKingCole said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Malmesbury said:

MoonRabbit said:

Scott_xP said:

Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.

Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.

'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

tlg86 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.

https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

Less productive than the French?

Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.

Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.

Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....

There’s also huge unemployment in France, relative to the UK, which skews the productivity stats even further in their favour.

Yes, the way the UK improves productivity is to invest in capital rather than throwing cheap labour at the problem. Cranes on building sites, and more automation of minimum-wage jobs.

kamski said:

Roger said:

MaxPB said:

LostPassword said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.

Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

- A split in NATO.
- The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
- Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
- Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
- So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
- Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.

Another good article on the geopolitics here:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.

I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.

Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.

Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.

Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?

It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.

Applicant said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee

The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too

I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.

That's how votes work.

May stayed on when she won hers and was forced out by 92% of the voting public rejecting her rather than a new confidence vote.

No, because she resigned. Under Tory rules May could have chosen not to resign even after the locals and Europeans and not faced another VONC until December 2019

Don't be ridiculous, she resigned because she had no choice but to resign. The voting public gave her no choice, despite you being in the 8% of voters who backed her.

Had she chosen not to resign the 1922 could and would have changed the rules.

No. The public were not relevant until the December 2019 general election.

Says the man who loves to quote opinion polls.

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

turbotubbs said:

Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

Yes, and this lot sound pretty ineffective. In the good old days, the whips threatened to expose MPs' visits to ladies in basement flats and gay sex encounters.

It is a potentially interesting question in law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackmail#Construction
...The law considers a "demand with menaces" to always be "unwarranted" (unjustified), unless the perpetrator actually believed that his/her demand had reasonable grounds, and also actually believed that the menace was a proper way to reinforce that demand. These tests relate to the actual belief of the perpetrator, not the belief of an ordinary or reasonable person. Therefore, tests related to what a "reasonable" person might think, and tests of dishonesty, are not often relevant - the matter hinges upon the actual and honest beliefs and knowledge of the perpetrator him/herself. ..

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

MattW said:

Fun.

Gloria de Piero interviewing Lee Anderson MP about Christian Wakeford's defection from Tory to Labour.

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1483771448607006720

IshmaelZ said:

kinabalu said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.

Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.

Dura_Ace said:

kamski said:

Roger said:

MaxPB said:

LostPassword said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.

Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

- A split in NATO.
- The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
- Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
- Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
- So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
- Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.

Another good article on the geopolitics here:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.

I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.

Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.

Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.

Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?

It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.

While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.

MrEd said:

NickPalmer said:

Collateral damage:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/20/uk-government-puts-animal-welfare-policies-on-pause

I think that article puts the kibosh on any attempts by Spencer to dilute the legislation given everyone will be on high alert.

Mrs Ed is involved in the anti-BSL for dogs. They are now on something like their 3rd or 4th petition that is pass 100K signatures. Some signs the Government is getting tired of having to constantly defend its position (though DEFRA remain opposed to repeal).

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The master has predicterated

Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.

eek said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

tlg86 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.

https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

Less productive than the French?

Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.

Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.

Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....

There’s also huge unemployment in France, relative to the UK, which skews the productivity stats even further in their favour.

Yes, the way the UK improves productivity is to invest in capital rather than throwing cheap labour at the problem. Cranes on building sites, and more automation of minimum-wage jobs.

Let's the blunt that's the way the UK should improve productivity. We just haven't done that because minimum wage jobs were easily filled by Eastern Europeans so productivity improvements were avoided as they require actual capital.

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Malmesbury said:

MoonRabbit said:

Scott_xP said:

Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.

Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.

'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again

The Wragg story is quite astonishing. It's a long-standing nasty observation that Government money is directed to marginal seats that they hope to hold, which is as he says improper (though not surprising to hardened observers) but accusing Ministers or whips of criminal blackmail seems difficult to reconcile with still taking the Conservative whip.

StuartDickson said:

Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

Lab 48%
Con 37%
LD 8%
oth 7%

That LD 8% is interesting. By definition, these are straight Con-Lab fights. That 8% is ripe for Starmer to squeeze.

Sandpit said:

Selebian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

"Mail of colour"?

It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.

The IT industry is also full of it.

We now have woke firewalls, with allowlists and denylists in place of whitelists and blacklists; and now have primary and secondary servers, rather than master and slave.

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it

Theuniondivvie said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

Anna Soubry was on Woman's Hour this am, not to everyone's taste I know, and she sees any tiny piece of silence as an opportunity to fill with wurdz. When asked if she would ever consider rejoining the Tories she said no, the rise of the Brexiteers obviously hastened her departure but BJism had permanently killed it for her.

Interestingly on the period leading up to her crossing the floor and receiving abuse, death threats etc she said the absence of support from her colleagues on the blue benches was striking compared to expressions of sympathy from Lab, LD, SNP etc mps.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Finally this government does something train users approve of.

What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?

I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it

Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

You are an embarrassment to the conservative party

StuartDickson said:

turbotubbs said:

StuartDickson said:

turbotubbs said:

StuartDickson said:

turbotubbs said:

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The master has predicterated

Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.

Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...

Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.

Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?

Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?

Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.

So, if we gave Cummings and Johnson two decades, they could achieve millions dead in BritNat territories.

The next Tory manifesto is going to go down in history.

Anabobazina said:

Regarding masking – my son's headmaster has just written to all parents saying that they are keeping the masks in classrooms due to local authority guidance. Is this commonplace? Seems ludicrous to me that the rule is dropped but schools keep it anyway!

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dura_Ace said:

Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

Happy days.
Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.

I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.

MoonRabbit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it

Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

You are an embarrassment to the conservative party

Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟

Selebian said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

Yes, and this lot sound pretty ineffective. In the good old days, the whips threatened to expose MPs' visits to ladies in basement flats and gay sex encounters.

It is a potentially interesting question in law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackmail#Construction
...The law considers a "demand with menaces" to always be "unwarranted" (unjustified), unless the perpetrator actually believed that his/her demand had reasonable grounds, and also actually believed that the menace was a proper way to reinforce that demand. These tests relate to the actual belief of the perpetrator, not the belief of an ordinary or reasonable person. Therefore, tests related to what a "reasonable" person might think, and tests of dishonesty, are not often relevant - the matter hinges upon the actual and honest beliefs and knowledge of the perpetrator him/herself. ..

Typical Johnson get out then:
"I should have found some other way to coerce them and I should have recognised that even if the coercion could be said technically to fall within the law - given I believed it a proper way to enforce my demands of loayalty - there would be millions and millions of people who simply would not see it that way"

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it

I agree with HY on this one. Conservative Party leadership is a party matter at the end of the day, the view of us non Conservative voters at present or non party members is pretty meaningless?

Morris_Dancer said:

Starmer down to 11 as next PM.

He was around 5-6, I think, before this kicked off.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MoonRabbit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it

Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

You are an embarrassment to the conservative party

Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟

I hope not

I hope next week sees the 54 letters delivered

stodge said:

Morning all

As an aside, listening to some of the rebellious Red Wall MPs - well, they don't sound like your archetypal rebels. They are sincere in wanting what's best for their constituents and working hard to improve the lot of the people they represent. You could almost call them One Nation Conservatives.

That's what this is about though, isn't it - the battle for the Conservative soul. The ideologues around Johnson now realise those they helped get elected in 2019 aren't like them at all - instead, they are more like those who Johnson turfed out of the party after becoming leader.

Gary_Burton said:

StuartDickson said:

Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

Lab 48%
Con 37%
LD 8%
oth 7%

Odd the LDs are so high there.

StuartDickson said:

Malmesbury said:

StuartDickson said:

turbotubbs said:

StuartDickson said:

turbotubbs said:

StuartDickson said:

turbotubbs said:

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The master has predicterated

Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.

Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...

Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.

Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?

Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?

Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.

So, if we gave Cummings and Johnson two decades, they could achieve millions dead in BritNat territories.

The next Tory manifesto is going to go down in history.

Whenever the "X was never tried properly" stuff comes up, I think that we need to start again, in alphabetical order.

Absolute Monarchy first, of course. With myself as the Absolute Monarch......

Aardvark Utopia first.

Pinocchio Johnson has a suspiciously long snout…

Roger said:

stodge said:

Morning all

As an aside, listening to some of the rebellious Red Wall MPs - well, they don't sound like your archetypal rebels. They are sincere in wanting what's best for their constituents and working hard to improve the lot of the people they represent. You could almost call them One Nation Conservatives.

That's what this is about though, isn't it - the battle for the Conservative soul. The ideologues around Johnson now realise those they helped get elected in 2019 aren't like them at all - instead, they are more like those who Johnson turfed out of the party after becoming leader.

No. They were Remainers. These are Leavers.

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MoonRabbit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

Chris said:

It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.

The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway

I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.

Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it

Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

You are an embarrassment to the conservative party

Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟

I hope not

I hope next week sees the 54 letters delivered

Not.
Going.
To.
Happen.

The PCP is weak, weak, weak.

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

kamski said:

Roger said:

MaxPB said:

LostPassword said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.

Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

- A split in NATO.
- The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
- Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
- Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
- So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
- Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.

Another good article on the geopolitics here:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.

I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.

Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.

Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.

Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?

It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.

While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.

Not much to do with the UK government.

It's now largely a Franco/Indian/South Korean venture.
https://spacenews.com/eutelsat-ups-its-oneweb-stake-with-additional-165-million/

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

kamski said:

Roger said:

MaxPB said:

LostPassword said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.

Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

- A split in NATO.
- The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
- Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
- Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
- So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
- Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.

Another good article on the geopolitics here:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.

I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.

Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.

Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.

Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?

It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.

While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.

Not much to do with the UK government.

It's now largely a Franco/Indian/South Korean venture.
https://spacenews.com/eutelsat-ups-its-oneweb-stake-with-additional-165-million/

MaxPB said:

People in hospital *for* COVID decreasing, people in hospital *with* COVID still going up. Almost 50% of all patients in hospital wrt COVID are now there for something else.

Next week we might even see incidental admissions overtake non-incidentals. The ONS death certificate stats have decoupled from the dashboard because of very high incidence over the last 28 days as well. The dashboard might be overstating daily hospitalisations as much as 50% and daily deaths by as much as 30% at the moment.