Punters give Johnson just a 32% chance of surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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Punters give Johnson just a 32% chance of surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

One thing that the events of this week has reinforced in my mind is how tough it can be to get rid of a PM who is really determined to stay. The current incumbent is not going to go quietly and will use everything in his considerable armory to hang in there.

Read the full story here

Slackbladder

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

MattW

2nd.

FPT:

eek said:

Regarding Energy prices

Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
NEW

Analysis: Nearly 90% of the rise in UK household energy bills is due to wholesale gas prices

The rest is mainly paying for supplier failures, whereas climate policy costs are falling

https://carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutting-the-green-crap-has-added-2-5bn-to-uk-energy-bills

Which means it's possible that Gas prices won't increase much from September onwards (remember the April and September price rises are almost baked in now) provided we can import enough from none Russian sources.

That link is quite a good piece.

Though the "baked in" price rises can be baked out again with a quick formula adjustment.

And they don't really take account of new electricity capacity coming down the track in the UK this year imo.

maaarsh

Whoever Kovinic beat in the first round must have had a mare - Radacanu is making a decent fist of her with 1 hand.

ThePoliticalParty

Third, like the Lightweight in Scotland

IshmaelZ

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Hope so but that sort of oooh look at me I know something you don't thing hardly ever comes good, and conversely stuff like Davis, wakeford, and anything from cummings is usually unheralded

My Johnson to go by x positions not looking healthy this morning

IshmaelZ

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Also "scathing intervention" = "What are we meant to use, harsh language?"

Scott_xP

Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

Taz

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

More clickbait.

Scott_xP

Will Wragg's Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee oversees the work of the cabinet office, including No 10.

This is a serious accusation that the ministerial code has been breached. Understand Wragg is also concerned the law may have been broken.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1484104667042926592

rottenborough

Scott_xP said:

Will Wragg's Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee oversees the work of the cabinet office, including No 10.

This is a serious accusation that the ministerial code has been breached. Understand Wragg is also concerned the law may have been broken.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1484104667042926592

I'm sure Cressida will rush to investigate.

WhisperingOracle

Wragg again, beyond his years. It's as if he's been there since 1995.

eek

Anyone who thinks train ticket pricing in the UK is complex - wait to you see the alternatives

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Normandy-trains-prices-vary-depending-on-the-ticket-machine-you-use#.Yekmy_BiNy8.twitter

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

Nigelb

Taz said:

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

More clickbait.

That aged well.

DecrepiterJohnL

maaarsh said:

Whoever Kovinic beat in the first round must have had a mare - Radacanu is making a decent fist of her with 1 hand.

That finger is very tender given the way Raducanu just doubled up in pain while it was being worked on.

rottenborough

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

eek

Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
· 5m
Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

Hands up anyone who is surprised by this tactic...

Stocky

At some point Cummings is going to run out of ammunition. Have we reached that point? I'm looking at BF's 4.5 on Johnson's exit date 2024 or later and thinking there may be some value there.

Nigelb

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

Will Wragg's Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee oversees the work of the cabinet office, including No 10.

This is a serious accusation that the ministerial code has been breached. Understand Wragg is also concerned the law may have been broken.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1484104667042926592

Morris_Dancer

I do wonder if he'll hold on, given the feeble pussyfooting of Conservative MPs.

Why wait for the report? You know the PM's full of shit. You know the electorate hate that. You know the contrast with the Queen is terrible for him.

Stop prevaricating and get rid of him.

maaarsh

DecrepiterJohnL said:

maaarsh said:

Whoever Kovinic beat in the first round must have had a mare - Radacanu is making a decent fist of her with 1 hand.

That finger is very tender given the way Raducanu just doubled up in pain while it was being worked on.

Hard to see her winning, or getting right for the next round if she did, but this has at least confirmed New York was no fluke and she is genuinely much much better than the career tour plodder class.

eek

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

She will only find emails if she goes searching for them (unlikely) or someone actually shows her an email they sent.

I suspect few people at No 10 are going to go that far.

Scott_xP

Why didn't yer community get levelled up?
Cause my MP didn't like Boris.
Great narrative to go into the local election with. https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1484104935826407424

Malmesbury

boulay said:

I know in advance that this would never fly in reality but has anyone on the Ukraine side considered “selling” the areas of Ukraine that Russia wants to the Russians?

If they sold them (Alaska, Louisiana Purchase etc) to Russia on condition that they were demilitarised with defence guarantees for each side they could be quasi-autonomous (Hong Kong) and honour could be served.

Ukraine gets a large sum of money, guarantees on gas supply, those Ukrainians who consider themselves Russian can move to these areas should they wish and the Russian gov can compensate whilst Ukrainians who don’t consider themselves Russian can be compensated to move.

I know Indian partition doesn’t give the best precedent but surely better than a war?

The Russians look “reasonable” and get what they want without the cost of war in blood and treasure, Ukraine gets energy security, security, shit loads of money.

And for those who say “why should we leave our homes because the Russians want our land - I get it but surely it’s better getting a load of cash and moving then either getting killed in a war, living in a war zone indefinitely or ultimately ending up in a part of Russia when you hate Russia.

Everyone’s a winner…..

Well, that was what a lot of people were telling Czechoslovakia to do, a while back.

The problem with feeding the tigers, is that the tigers get to like being fed by you. When you run out of food....

Richard_Nabavi

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

Yes, and this lot sound pretty ineffective. In the good old days, the whips threatened to expose MPs' visits to ladies in basement flats and gay sex encounters.

IshmaelZ

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

There's aspects of "democracy" that linger for centuries and eventually end up where they belong in the dustbin of history. Check out your username.

The clever bit with doing this now is it hamstrings the whips when they want to turn up the heat in op save big dog part 2

OldKingCole

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

Well, since he's never heard of one of the more famous Parliamentary remarks, used at two crucial moments in history, and which, on the second occasion led to his hero being installed as PM he might well not have known what was going on.

maaarsh

If it's illegal to try and bribe people with what is effectively public funds, then the Labour party should be shut down for good.

Scott_xP

NEW: @IpsosMORI finds Johnson’s favourability falls even further to -39 with 3 in 5 Brits now having an unfavourable opinion of him – Of his potential replacements, Rishi Sunak is +7, Sajid Javid is -8 and Liz Truss is at -16 with the public https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354/photo/1

Morris_Dancer

As an aside, put a little extra on Starmer next PM at 12. Bit shorter than yesterday, but a saver in case they bugger it up.

And, if they don't, I'll be able to hedge more on Sunak anyway.

Big_G_NorthWales

Morris_Dancer said:

I do wonder if he'll hold on, given the feeble pussyfooting of Conservative MPs.

Why wait for the report? You know the PM's full of shit. You know the electorate hate that. You know the contrast with the Queen is terrible for him.

Stop prevaricating and get rid of him.

If only it was that easy but let's hope this report ends his premiership, one way or another

IshmaelZ

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @IpsosMORI finds Johnson’s favourability falls even further to -39 with 3 in 5 Brits now having an unfavourable opinion of him – Of his potential replacements, Rishi Sunak is +7, Sajid Javid is -8 and Liz Truss is at -16 with the public https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354/photo/1

I feel much better than I did 30 minutes ago

Roger

Cancelled

Dura_Ace

Stocky said:

At some point Cummings is going to run out of ammunition. Have we reached that point? I'm looking at BF's 4.5 on Johnson's exit date 2024 or later and thinking there may be some value there.

What he says doesn't actually have to be true to work. People will believe just about any old shit about Johnson now and assume he's lying when he denies. In that sense Cummo can't run out of ammunition.

Big_G_NorthWales

IshmaelZ said:

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @IpsosMORI finds Johnson’s favourability falls even further to -39 with 3 in 5 Brits now having an unfavourable opinion of him – Of his potential replacements, Rishi Sunak is +7, Sajid Javid is -8 and Liz Truss is at -16 with the public https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354/photo/1

I feel much better than I did 30 minutes ago

And Starmer is -14 behind Sunak and Javid

Malmesbury

IshmaelZ said:

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

There's aspects of "democracy" that linger for centuries and eventually end up where they belong in the dustbin of history. Check out your username.

The clever bit with doing this now is it hamstrings the whips when they want to turn up the heat in op save big dog part 2

It's not been standard for 300 years.

One thing that is remarkable about the Napoleonic Wars, was that during that time, there was a large chunk of MPs (and other people) quite openly supporting Napoleon, in the UK. MPs were very free to do what they wanted....

The idea of whipping a party to conform to policy is much more recent - late 19th Cent. politics. Before then, there was haggling to buy the various factions, but the power of the "Government" was much less vs MPs.

MattW

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

Well, since he's never heard of one of the more famous Parliamentary remarks, used at two crucial moments in history, and which, on the second occasion led to his hero being installed as PM he might well not have known what was going on.

Three crucial moments?

Carnyx

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

Well, since he's never heard of one of the more famous Parliamentary remarks, used at two crucial moments in history, and which, on the second occasion led to his hero being installed as PM he might well not have known what was going on.

I'm confused. I thought Mr Johnson wrote a biography of Churchill. Or was it Churchill the Insurance Dog?

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

That's standard but threatening to cut funding in their constituencies is blackmail. It shows how hard Boris is clawing at the door frame of Number 10. I think he knows he's done but is having a toddler tantrum because his favourite toy is being taken away from him.

Carnyx

ThePoliticalParty said:

Third, like the Lightweight in Scotland

Actually fourth, both your post and Mr R as per some recent polling ...

IshmaelZ

https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106264682586117

Johnson is also underwater with his own voters from 2019 with a -4 score while Sunak, Javid and Truss all have positive scores

OldKingCole

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

Well, since he's never heard of one of the more famous Parliamentary remarks, used at two crucial moments in history, and which, on the second occasion led to his hero being installed as PM he might well not have known what was going on.

I'm confused. I thought Mr Johnson wrote a biography of Churchill. Or was it Churchill the Insurance Dog?

Not half as confused as the PM!

Selebian

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Senior MP? So, Johnson is going to come out and say "nah nah nah nah nah, you big bunch of jessies, I can do whatever I like and you lot are too weak and spineless to stop me"?

noneoftheabove

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @IpsosMORI finds Johnson’s favourability falls even further to -39 with 3 in 5 Brits now having an unfavourable opinion of him – Of his potential replacements, Rishi Sunak is +7, Sajid Javid is -8 and Liz Truss is at -16 with the public https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354/photo/1

Bring back isam!

Scott_xP

Number 10 determined to fight a confidence vote if one comes. But Johnson loyalists in the Cabinet fear that 'if it goes to a vote, he's finished' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-it-goes-to-a-vote-hes-finished-the-battle-to-save-boris

No_Offence_Alan

Selebian said:

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Senior MP? So, Johnson is going to come out and say "nah nah nah nah nah, you big bunch of jessies, I can do whatever I like and you lot are too weak and spineless to stop me"?

According to journalists, all MPs who criticise their own party are by definition "senior".

OldKingCole

Selebian said:

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Senior MP? So, Johnson is going to come out and say "nah nah nah nah nah, you big bunch of jessies, I can do whatever I like and you lot are too weak and spineless to stop me"?

Jam tomorrow?

Richard_Nabavi

No_Offence_Alan said:

Selebian said:

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Senior MP? So, Johnson is going to come out and say "nah nah nah nah nah, you big bunch of jessies, I can do whatever I like and you lot are too weak and spineless to stop me"?

According to journalists, all MPs who criticise their own party are by definition "senior".

Unless they were first elected last week, in which case they are 'rising stars'.

IshmaelZ

No_Offence_Alan said:

Selebian said:

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Senior MP? So, Johnson is going to come out and say "nah nah nah nah nah, you big bunch of jessies, I can do whatever I like and you lot are too weak and spineless to stop me"?

According to journalists, all MPs who criticise their own party are by definition "senior".

Chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee is senior.

rkrkrk

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

That's standard but threatening to cut funding in their constituencies is blackmail. It shows how hard Boris is clawing at the door frame of Number 10. I think he knows he's done but is having a toddler tantrum because his favourite toy is being taken away from him.

Rebels must be scared though. The threat has no consequence if you think you can get rid of Johnson. It only matters if you're unsure.

Carnyx

IshmaelZ said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Selebian said:

Slackbladder said:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
Eyes Hearing a senior MP is due to make a scathing intervention in the partygate scandal this morning… standby for potential sparks to fly.
9:16 am · 20 Jan 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Senior MP? So, Johnson is going to come out and say "nah nah nah nah nah, you big bunch of jessies, I can do whatever I like and you lot are too weak and spineless to stop me"?

According to journalists, all MPs who criticise their own party are by definition "senior".

Chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee is senior.

And that rubric would cover pissups in Government offices, too. And, for that matter, trying to commit regicide.

IshmaelZ

A senior Conservative MP has accused Number 10 of threatening him and other colleagues over their opposition to Boris Johnson as he urged anyone who had been "blackmailed" to contact the police.

William Wragg, who is chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, told MPs that Number 10 staff, special advisers and government whips had said there would be embarrassing stories released to the press if they did not support the prime minister.

The MP also said Number 10 had threatened to withdraw funding to his and other backbenchers' constituencies if they did not withdraw their opposition to Mr Johnson.

He said "the intimidation of a member of parliament is a serious matter", adding: "The reports of which I'm aware would seem to constitute blackmail."

Number 10 has been contacted for a response.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-20/tory-mp-accuses-no10-of-threatening-to-withdraw-funding-over-opposition-to-pm

Scott_xP

This doesn't strike me as the best rebuilding strategy - at best it buys a reprive with some waverers but it will alienate more MPs in the LR. Must be pretty intense/aggressive for a senior MP to go public like this criticising it. https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1484104935826407424

If there's one constant with Johnson's Number 10 operation, its pursuing the most aggressive strategy at every turn regardless of effectiveness/likelihood of success. That's how they ended up with a hostile 1922 chair, an angry standards committee and a lost by-election.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1484110081188839425

noneoftheabove

Scott_xP said:

Number 10 determined to fight a confidence vote if one comes. But Johnson loyalists in the Cabinet fear that 'if it goes to a vote, he's finished' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-it-goes-to-a-vote-hes-finished-the-battle-to-save-boris

There are loyalists? I suppose Boris and JRM, anyone else?

Scott_xP

I understand Sue Gray has found the email from a senior official to PM’s principle private secretary Martin Reynolds warning him the 20 May party should not go ahead, as per Cummings’s revelation and my blog below. So huge…https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-17/why-the-mystery-partygate-email-mentioned-in-cummings-blog-really-matters

Carnyx

Carnyx said:

ThePoliticalParty said:

Third, like the Lightweight in Scotland

Actually fourth, both your post and Mr R as per some recent polling ...

Ignore, not completely awake this morning ...

eek

Scott_xP said:

I understand Sue Gray has found the email from a senior official to PM’s principle private secretary Martin Reynolds warning him the 20 May party should not go ahead, as per Cummings’s revelation and my blog below. So huge…https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-17/why-the-mystery-partygate-email-mentioned-in-cummings-blog-really-matters

Yep but that's Peston so is the story at all accurate.

Burgessian

eek said:

Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
· 5m
Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

Hands up anyone who is surprised by this tactic...

It's surely significant that some MPs are evidently prepared to escalate further in order to tip Boris over the edge. Urging rebels to go to the police is pretty incendiary. It's real warfare now and no going back. Every time Boris looks like he might get a breather something else blows up. Eventually he must run out of cover to hide behind.

Stuartinromford

Scott_xP said:

This doesn't strike me as the best rebuilding strategy - at best it buys a reprive with some waverers but it will alienate more MPs in the LR. Must be pretty intense/aggressive for a senior MP to go public like this criticising it. https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1484104935826407424

If there's one constant with Johnson's Number 10 operation, its pursuing the most aggressive strategy at every turn regardless of effectiveness/likelihood of success. That's how they ended up with a hostile 1922 chair, an angry standards committee and a lost by-election.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1484110081188839425

It's what happens if you think in terms of tactics and what keeps you alive another day. You can survive day-to-day for a lot of days. But not an infinite number of days.

noneoftheabove

IshmaelZ said:

A senior Conservative MP has accused Number 10 of threatening him and other colleagues over their opposition to Boris Johnson as he urged anyone who had been "blackmailed" to contact the police.

William Wragg, who is chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, told MPs that Number 10 staff, special advisers and government whips had said there would be embarrassing stories released to the press if they did not support the prime minister.

The MP also said Number 10 had threatened to withdraw funding to his and other backbenchers' constituencies if they did not withdraw their opposition to Mr Johnson.

He said "the intimidation of a member of parliament is a serious matter", adding: "The reports of which I'm aware would seem to constitute blackmail."

Number 10 has been contacted for a response.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-20/tory-mp-accuses-no10-of-threatening-to-withdraw-funding-over-opposition-to-pm

When such a senior figure explicitly alleges blackmail one should expect the police to investigate. Of course they won't.

HYUFD

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

Scott_xP

👀As many as five more Conservative MPs could follow Christian Wakeford to Labour.

A Labour source told The Times: “Christian started to become serious in October. There’s about five more in the equivalent of September at the moment.”

Not all of them are 2019ers https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1484111407423631366/photo/1

Stark_Dawning

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

It will say: there were parties
The PM attended one or more
He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
There should not have been parties

MPs can decide now what they want to do next.

The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

Well, since he's never heard of one of the more famous Parliamentary remarks, used at two crucial moments in history, and which, on the second occasion led to his hero being installed as PM he might well not have known what was going on.

Three crucial moments?

'From the sublime to the ridiculous' rather sums up DD's use of it.

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

Nigelb

Scott_xP said:

Number 10 determined to fight a confidence vote if one comes. But Johnson loyalists in the Cabinet fear that 'if it goes to a vote, he's finished' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-it-goes-to-a-vote-hes-finished-the-battle-to-save-boris

Fear, or know ?

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

And the PM looked like an ill-tempered toddler, shouting all sorts of rubbish.

TOPPING

Cracking tennis on at the moment it seems.

WhisperingOracle

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

A senior Conservative MP has accused Number 10 of threatening him and other colleagues over their opposition to Boris Johnson as he urged anyone who had been "blackmailed" to contact the police.

William Wragg, who is chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, told MPs that Number 10 staff, special advisers and government whips had said there would be embarrassing stories released to the press if they did not support the prime minister.

The MP also said Number 10 had threatened to withdraw funding to his and other backbenchers' constituencies if they did not withdraw their opposition to Mr Johnson.

He said "the intimidation of a member of parliament is a serious matter", adding: "The reports of which I'm aware would seem to constitute blackmail."

Number 10 has been contacted for a response.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-20/tory-mp-accuses-no10-of-threatening-to-withdraw-funding-over-opposition-to-pm

When such a senior figure explicitly alleges blackmail one should expect the police to investigate. Of course they won't.

The police have done the square root of zero so far. "On your way, milord."

Nigelb

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

I think Boris is probably as uninformed as HYUFD, and thinks 'if I can just hang on for a couple of weeks...'

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Number 10 determined to fight a confidence vote if one comes. But Johnson loyalists in the Cabinet fear that 'if it goes to a vote, he's finished' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-it-goes-to-a-vote-hes-finished-the-battle-to-save-boris

Fear, or know ?

The VONC is a secret ballot so no amount of whipping will help and the payroll vote isn't bound to vote for Boris. A lot of what we're seeing is the payroll vote playing out the last days of Rome.

noneoftheabove

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:

This doesn't strike me as the best rebuilding strategy - at best it buys a reprive with some waverers but it will alienate more MPs in the LR. Must be pretty intense/aggressive for a senior MP to go public like this criticising it. https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1484104935826407424

If there's one constant with Johnson's Number 10 operation, its pursuing the most aggressive strategy at every turn regardless of effectiveness/likelihood of success. That's how they ended up with a hostile 1922 chair, an angry standards committee and a lost by-election.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1484110081188839425

It's what happens if you think in terms of tactics and what keeps you alive another day. You can survive day-to-day for a lot of days. But not an infinite number of days.

It also depends on having a fearful, weak and divided party (no not that type of party).

DecrepiterJohnL

Scott_xP said:

I understand Sue Gray has found the email from a senior official to PM’s principle private secretary Martin Reynolds warning him the 20 May party should not go ahead, as per Cummings’s revelation and my blog below. So huge…https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-17/why-the-mystery-partygate-email-mentioned-in-cummings-blog-really-matters

Wrong link?

IshmaelZ

Scott_xP said:

I understand Sue Gray has found the email from a senior official to PM’s principle private secretary Martin Reynolds warning him the 20 May party should not go ahead, as per Cummings’s revelation and my blog below. So huge…https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-17/why-the-mystery-partygate-email-mentioned-in-cummings-blog-really-matters

Your link is to Monday's story, but the tweet is an update today

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1484109819183255552

HYUFD

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @IpsosMORI finds Johnson’s favourability falls even further to -39 with 3 in 5 Brits now having an unfavourable opinion of him – Of his potential replacements, Rishi Sunak is +7, Sajid Javid is -8 and Liz Truss is at -16 with the public https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354/photo/1

Of alternative Tory leaders to Boris, Sunak and Javid have higher net favourables than Starmer there with the public, Truss and Patel lower net favourables than Starmer however

https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354?s=20

noneoftheabove

WhisperingOracle said:

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

A senior Conservative MP has accused Number 10 of threatening him and other colleagues over their opposition to Boris Johnson as he urged anyone who had been "blackmailed" to contact the police.

William Wragg, who is chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, told MPs that Number 10 staff, special advisers and government whips had said there would be embarrassing stories released to the press if they did not support the prime minister.

The MP also said Number 10 had threatened to withdraw funding to his and other backbenchers' constituencies if they did not withdraw their opposition to Mr Johnson.

He said "the intimidation of a member of parliament is a serious matter", adding: "The reports of which I'm aware would seem to constitute blackmail."

Number 10 has been contacted for a response.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-20/tory-mp-accuses-no10-of-threatening-to-withdraw-funding-over-opposition-to-pm

When such a senior figure explicitly alleges blackmail one should expect the police to investigate. Of course they won't.

The police have done the square root of zero so far. "On your way, milord."

We don't investigate poshos for things that have happened in the past, particularly if they have any connections to our bosses.

DecrepiterJohnL

TOPPING said:

Cracking tennis on at the moment it seems.

PBers without fancy tellies can watch the tennis on the Betfair video stream. Other bookmakers are available.

MoonRabbit

Scott_xP said:

Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

HYUFD

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

Malmesbury

MoonRabbit said:

Scott_xP said:

Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.

TOPPING

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TOPPING said:

Cracking tennis on at the moment it seems.

PBers without fancy tellies can watch the tennis on the Betfair video stream. Other bookmakers are available.

Great tip thanks

Big_G_NorthWales

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

Number 10 determined to fight a confidence vote if one comes. But Johnson loyalists in the Cabinet fear that 'if it goes to a vote, he's finished' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-it-goes-to-a-vote-hes-finished-the-battle-to-save-boris

There are loyalists? I suppose Boris and JRM, anyone else?

Dorries

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee

rkrkrk

Boris surviving starting to look like value.

MoonRabbit

Malmesbury said:

MoonRabbit said:

Scott_xP said:

Breaking:

William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

He urges rebels to go to the police

He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.

Exactly! So the options are hang them, pit them. Or burn them? 😕 Boris government are soooo ruthless, look what they done to Hammond, Guake etc.

noneoftheabove

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

Number 10 determined to fight a confidence vote if one comes. But Johnson loyalists in the Cabinet fear that 'if it goes to a vote, he's finished' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-it-goes-to-a-vote-hes-finished-the-battle-to-save-boris

There are loyalists? I suppose Boris and JRM, anyone else?

Dorries

Yes, definitely a loyalist but she will be briefing it is all the fault of the BBC and the woke * rather than assessing the outcome of a confidence vote.

* It would not matter what the issue is, let alone the facts of the issue, for this to be her view.

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

Portillo behind the pace: Wragg, ipsos mori, email found

HYUFD

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee

The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too

CarlottaVance

In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.

https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

1922 discussing changing the rule to six months

If you think there is unity in the party then you are in dreamland

Applicant

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

For about the 823rd time, May wasn't.

tlg86

CarlottaVance said:

In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.

https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

Less productive than the French?

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee

The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too

So the institute for govt is wrong?

Stocky

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee

The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too

I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @IpsosMORI finds Johnson’s favourability falls even further to -39 with 3 in 5 Brits now having an unfavourable opinion of him – Of his potential replacements, Rishi Sunak is +7, Sajid Javid is -8 and Liz Truss is at -16 with the public https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354/photo/1

Of alternative Tory leaders to Boris, Sunak and Javid have higher net favourables than Starmer there with the public, Truss and Patel lower net favourables than Starmer however

https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354?s=20

Time for you to join those of us backing Rishi

OnlyLivingBoy

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.

https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

Less productive than the French?

Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.

OldKingCole

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee

The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too

I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.

And conduct a witch-hunt for those who threatened his position.

tlg86

OnlyLivingBoy said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.

https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

Less productive than the French?

Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.

Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.

Scott_xP

NEW: Labour’s @AngelaRayner responds:

“These are grave & shocking accusations of bullying, blackmail & misuse of public money and must be investigated. That areas of our country will be starved of funding because MPs don't fall into line to prop up this failing PM is disgusting”

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1484115289260314626

turbotubbs

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.

https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

Less productive than the French?

Its all about measurement. How sure are we that we are comparing apples with apples? Just like Covid stats...

Carnyx

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.

If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922

The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee

The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too

So the institute for govt is wrong?

I wonder if a "1922 Cttee year" will join the "Scottish generation" in PB parlance.