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Punters give Johnson just a 32% chance of surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    That's how votes work.

    May stayed on when she won hers and was forced out by 92% of the voting public rejecting her rather than a new confidence vote.
    No, because she resigned. Under Tory rules May could have chosen not to resign even after the locals and Europeans and not faced another VONC until December 2019
    Don't be ridiculous, she resigned because she had no choice but to resign. The voting public gave her no choice, despite you being in the 8% of voters who backed her.

    Had she chosen not to resign the 1922 could and would have changed the rules.
    No. The public were not relevant until the December 2019 general election.
    Says the man who loves to quote opinion polls.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    "If you see something that doesn't look right..."
    The occupant of 10 Downing Street perhaps?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again
    Works for Boris, that's one letter less.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,431

    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs that that there's trolley with drinks and light refreshments is on board and/or there's a cafe/restaurant in coach D.
    Displays cover it for most use cases for those unfamiliar with the journey. Hard for the sight-impaired of course...

    Do German intercity trains still have a print out of the stops and times left at each seat? That was handy if you didn't have a clue, you could simply get off by time (and the times were generally near correct).

  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Less productive than the French?
    Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.
    Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.
    Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

    Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

    On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....
    There’s also huge unemployment in France, relative to the UK, which skews the productivity stats even further in their favour.

    Yes, the way the UK improves productivity is to invest in capital rather than throwing cheap labour at the problem. Cranes on building sites, and more automation of minimum-wage jobs.
    Indeed one thing that completely skews and misleads the stats is comparing countries with different labour market participation rates.

    In the UK even the lowest skilled can be fully employed which lowers unemployment but depresses productivity.

    Would we as a nation be better off if we had more people on the dole? Probably not, but that would boost productivity.

    We do need to improve productivity in this country and Brexit will probably help with that, but international comparisons can be very misleading.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,501
    Fun.

    Gloria de Piero interviewing Lee Anderson MP about Christian Wakeford's defection from Tory to Labour.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1483771448607006720

    :smile:
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994
    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
    It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.
    While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.
  • Options

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    I must admit I found that whole comment from Goodwin to be incomprehensible.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    That's how votes work.

    May stayed on when she won hers and was forced out by 92% of the voting public rejecting her rather than a new confidence vote.
    No, because she resigned. Under Tory rules May could have chosen not to resign even after the locals and Europeans and not faced another VONC until December 2019
    Don't be ridiculous, she resigned because she had no choice but to resign. The voting public gave her no choice, despite you being in the 8% of voters who backed her.

    Had she chosen not to resign the 1922 could and would have changed the rules.
    No. The public were not relevant until the December 2019 general election.
    Says the man who loves to quote opinion polls.
    In terms of choosing which Tory was PM and if the Tory PM leading a Tory government backed by the DUP stayed or was replaced by another Tory MP they weren't until the next general election
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
    Recently we changed the list of approved websites at work from 'White list' to 'Approved list'.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,965
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Less productive than the French?
    Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.
    Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.
    Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

    Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

    On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....
    There’s also huge unemployment in France, relative to the UK, which skews the productivity stats even further in their favour.

    Yes, the way the UK improves productivity is to invest in capital rather than throwing cheap labour at the problem. Cranes on building sites, and more automation of minimum-wage jobs.
    Let's the blunt that's the way the UK should improve productivity. We just haven't done that because minimum wage jobs were easily filled by Eastern Europeans so productivity improvements were avoided as they require actual capital.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    No, I don't suppose anyone inclined towards supporting the Tories finds it at all entertaining.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678
    Selebian said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
    It's an old Scottish Borders term - effectively black + mail, mail being rent. Definitely the black = bad equation here. Unlike the Black Bitch at Linlithgow or the Black Bull at Lauder.

    https://www.scotslanguage.com/articles/view/id/5303
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    Selebian said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
    The IT industry is also full of it.

    We now have woke firewalls, with allowlists and denylists in place of whitelists and blacklists; and now have primary and secondary servers, rather than master and slave.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994


    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?

    Stalinism absolutely succeeded. All enemies within and without routed. The Soviet Union transformed from feudal agrarianism to nuclear armed, space faring superpower.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    The one who is ludicrous here is yourself

    You are blind to the implosion of the party under toxic Boris which is handing GE24 to Labour

    There are many thousands who will return to a credible conservative party led by a serious politician with serious policies
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,431
    Nigelb said:

    Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

    I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

    It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

    Yes, and this lot sound pretty ineffective. In the good old days, the whips threatened to expose MPs' visits to ladies in basement flats and gay sex encounters.
    It is a potentially interesting question in law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackmail#Construction
    ...The law considers a "demand with menaces" to always be "unwarranted" (unjustified), unless the perpetrator actually believed that his/her demand had reasonable grounds, and also actually believed that the menace was a proper way to reinforce that demand. These tests relate to the actual belief of the perpetrator, not the belief of an ordinary or reasonable person. Therefore, tests related to what a "reasonable" person might think, and tests of dishonesty, are not often relevant - the matter hinges upon the actual and honest beliefs and knowledge of the perpetrator him/herself. ..
    Typical Johnson get out then:
    "I should have found some other way to coerce them and I should have recognised that even if the coercion could be said technically to fall within the law - given I believed it a proper way to enforce my demands of loayalty - there would be millions and millions of people who simply would not see it that way"
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    We need to abolish the verb to abolition first.
    Fecking autocorrect.
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    Anna Soubry was on Woman's Hour this am, not to everyone's taste I know, and she sees any tiny piece of silence as an opportunity to fill with wurdz. When asked if she would ever consider rejoining the Tories she said no, the rise of the Brexiteers obviously hastened her departure but BJism had permanently killed it for her.

    Interestingly on the period leading up to her crossing the floor and receiving abuse, death threats etc she said the absence of support from her colleagues on the blue benches was striking compared to expressions of sympathy from Lab, LD, SNP etc mps.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    MattW said:

    Fun.

    Gloria de Piero interviewing Lee Anderson MP about Christian Wakeford's defection from Tory to Labour.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1483771448607006720

    :smile:

    "Christian WOKEford as we call him" slightly tells you where Lee Anderson (himself a defector apparently) is coming from
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Less productive than the French?
    Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.
    Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.
    Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

    Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

    On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....
    There’s also huge unemployment in France, relative to the UK, which skews the productivity stats even further in their favour.

    Yes, the way the UK improves productivity is to invest in capital rather than throwing cheap labour at the problem. Cranes on building sites, and more automation of minimum-wage jobs.
    Indeed one thing that completely skews and misleads the stats is comparing countries with different labour market participation rates.

    In the UK even the lowest skilled can be fully employed which lowers unemployment but depresses productivity.

    Would we as a nation be better off if we had more people on the dole? Probably not, but that would boost productivity.

    We do need to improve productivity in this country and Brexit will probably help with that, but international comparisons can be very misleading.
    Yes, more people on the dole would likely boost the “productivity” stats, in the same way as increased unemployment in 2009 meant there were fewer people “living in poverty”, according to the statistics.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    I think that article puts the kibosh on any attempts by Spencer to dilute the legislation given everyone will be on high alert.

    Mrs Ed is involved in the anti-BSL for dogs. They are now on something like their 3rd or 4th petition that is pass 100K signatures. Some signs the Government is getting tired of having to constantly defend its position (though DEFRA remain opposed to repeal).
  • Options
    How do people think the Southend by election will go?

    I thought everyone apart from the Tories might lose their deposits but maybe UKIP could hold theirs now?

    There could be a record low turnout or at least lowest since Manchester Central in 2012.



    Con 80%
    UKIP 10%
    Others 10%


    Turnout 20% (-47)
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    I bet it is true. Sue "must go where she needs to go" is the mantra so I'm sure she's gone there. But the email is to the PPS. Is this chap - this Martin Reynolds CMG - going to testify to SG that he checked with the PM and the PM okayed it. Logic says this is what happened but will he say that? Or will he take it all upon himself and say "I didn't" or "I don't recall" or "I did but I implied it was within the rules", in a show of 'greater love hath no servant than this, that he lay down his job and his reputation for his master'.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Starmer down to 11 as next PM.

    He was around 5-6, I think, before this kicked off.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
    It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.
    While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.
    - OneWeb is about to go into operation
    - The next generation of satellites will fly on Indian launchers, after the existing, contracted, launches had been completed. Rogozin was going mental about that.
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs that that there's trolley with drinks and light refreshments is on board and/or there's a cafe/restaurant in coach D.
    Displays cover it for most use cases for those unfamiliar with the journey. Hard for the sight-impaired of course...

    Do German intercity trains still have a print out of the stops and times left at each seat? That was handy if you didn't have a clue, you could simply get off by time (and the times were generally near correct).

    I can really only see justification for two scheduled announcements per stop: on approach "we will shortly be arriving at X" and when the doors open at X "this is X, this train is for Y calling at A, B, C..." - the latter mostly for the benefit of people getting on.

    Sure, commuters don't need the stop announcements, if you're in a hurry you're probably tracking it on RTT anyway. But even people who are taking a journey for the thousandth time once took it for the first time.
  • Options
    I am shocked, the Catholic Church turning a blind eye to paedophilia, unprecedented.

    Ex-pope Benedict failed to act over four child abuse cases when he was archbishop of Munich, German probe into Catholic Church finds

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60070132
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Post of the year candidate.

    Got a feeling 2022 is gonna be an absolute corker.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678
    MrEd said:

    I think that article puts the kibosh on any attempts by Spencer to dilute the legislation given everyone will be on high alert.

    Mrs Ed is involved in the anti-BSL for dogs. They are now on something like their 3rd or 4th petition that is pass 100K signatures. Some signs the Government is getting tired of having to constantly defend its position (though DEFRA remain opposed to repeal).
    Dogs are taught British Sign Language (or not as the case may be)? What have we missed?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Dura_Ace said:


    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?

    Stalinism absolutely succeeded. All enemies within and without routed. The Soviet Union transformed from feudal agrarianism to nuclear armed, space faring superpower.
    At the cost of millions of lives.

    And environmental destruction on an epic scale....
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

    You are an embarrassment to the conservative party
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    Absolutely spot on. Is it Machiavelli who asks “is it better to be feared or loved?” Boris conceivably becomes more popular and secure for the firmness he slaps back. Please tell me I’m wrong. I mean, please do 😕
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    If only he'd had the right advisors...
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    eekeek Posts: 24,965

    Starmer down to 11 as next PM.

    He was around 5-6, I think, before this kicked off.

    May be a good bet if you think Boris can survive until 2023/4.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

    Lab 48%
    Con 37%
    LD 8%
    oth 7%

    That LD 8% is interesting. By definition, these are straight Con-Lab fights. That 8% is ripe for Starmer to squeeze.
  • Options
    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs that that there's trolley with drinks and light refreshments is on board and/or there's a cafe/restaurant in coach D.
    Displays cover it for most use cases for those unfamiliar with the journey. Hard for the sight-impaired of course...

    Do German intercity trains still have a print out of the stops and times left at each seat? That was handy if you didn't have a clue, you could simply get off by time (and the times were generally near correct).

    I can really only see justification for two scheduled announcements per stop: on approach "we will shortly be arriving at X" and when the doors open at X "this is X, this train is for Y calling at A, B, C..." - the latter mostly for the benefit of people getting on.

    Sure, commuters don't need the stop announcements, if you're in a hurry you're probably tracking it on RTT anyway. But even people who are taking a journey for the thousandth time once took it for the first time.
    That said, announcements of the next stop, destination and so on can be better made on digital displays like they do in that there London.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Less productive than the French?
    Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.
    Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.
    Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

    Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

    On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....
    There’s also huge unemployment in France, relative to the UK, which skews the productivity stats even further in their favour.

    Yes, the way the UK improves productivity is to invest in capital rather than throwing cheap labour at the problem. Cranes on building sites, and more automation of minimum-wage jobs.
    Let's the blunt that's the way the UK should improve productivity. We just haven't done that because minimum wage jobs were easily filled by Eastern Europeans so productivity improvements were avoided as they require actual capital.
    When Sunak increased the incentives for investing in plant and machinery, the order books for labour saving machinery zoomed upward. Try buying a mini-digger from JCB..... Last I heard they were talking about working three shifts for the demand....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    edited January 2022

    I am shocked, the Catholic Church turning a blind eye to paedophilia, unprecedented.

    Ex-pope Benedict failed to act over four child abuse cases when he was archbishop of Munich, German probe into Catholic Church finds

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60070132

    So Tim Minchin was right about Benedict all along?

    (Very NSFW song)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Rabbit, the answer is both but if you can only choose one then feared, because men choose who love but have fear, usually, imposed upon them.

    From memory, anyway. Which reminds me, in Civ VI the Machiavelli quotes are from the wrong books (pretty sure, I recall the charming line "Men must be pampered or annihilated" from The Prince).
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
    The IT industry is also full of it.

    We now have woke firewalls, with allowlists and denylists in place of whitelists and blacklists; and now have primary and secondary servers, rather than master and slave.
    There were plenty of white slaves. The Barbary Coast slavers raided as far north as Iceland, and of course, the ancestors of those raided in Iceland had themselves taken slaves from what we now know as Russia.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again
    The Wragg story is quite astonishing. It's a long-standing nasty observation that Government money is directed to marginal seats that they hope to hold, which is as he says improper (though not surprising to hardened observers) but accusing Ministers or whips of criminal blackmail seems difficult to reconcile with still taking the Conservative whip.
    The allegation is breach of ministerial code - and 'potential' blackmail, so not quite the same thing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    I am shocked, the Catholic Church turning a blind eye to paedophilia, unprecedented.

    Ex-pope Benedict failed to act over four child abuse cases when he was archbishop of Munich, German probe into Catholic Church finds

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60070132

    Though plenty of divisions in the Roman Catholic Church between conservatives supportive of Benedict and the more Liberal current Pope Francis and his supporters.

    As Rochdale etc showed, Islam also has had issues
  • Options

    Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

    Lab 48%
    Con 37%
    LD 8%
    oth 7%

    That LD 8% is interesting. By definition, these are straight Con-Lab fights. That 8% is ripe for Starmer to squeeze.

    When's the next national poll ?
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    I bet it is true. Sue "must go where she needs to go" is the mantra so I'm sure she's gone there. But the email is to the PPS. Is this chap - this Martin Reynolds CMG - going to testify to SG that he checked with the PM and the PM okayed it. Logic says this is what happened but will he say that? Or will he take it all upon himself and say "I didn't" or "I don't recall" or "I did but I implied it was within the rules", in a show of 'greater love hath no servant than this, that he lay down his job and his reputation for his master'.
    This is exactly the point I was making yesterday
  • Options

    Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

    Lab 48%
    Con 37%
    LD 8%
    oth 7%

    Odd the LDs are so high there.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
    The IT industry is also full of it.

    We now have woke firewalls, with allowlists and denylists in place of whitelists and blacklists; and now have primary and secondary servers, rather than master and slave.
    TBF the woke terms are better. Your firewall rules aren't thing like 192.168.1.0/24 * WHITE and a slave isn't a person who spends all day copying what the master does so they can take over as the new master if the master suddenly dies.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,431
    eek said:

    Starmer down to 11 as next PM.

    He was around 5-6, I think, before this kicked off.

    May be a good bet if you think Boris can survive until 2023/4.
    Lkely tradeable too, if Johnson survives in the short term.

    (At least, I hope so - I've got some on Starmer, longest at just under 10 just before the eve of Prince Philip's funreal party story broke, d'oh. But I've been slightly unconvinced on Johnson's iminent demise, so I held on to it rather than trade out on a loss.)
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    I agree with HY on this one. Conservative Party leadership is a party matter at the end of the day, the view of us non Conservative voters at present or non party members is pretty meaningless?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974

    Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

    Lab 48%
    Con 37%
    LD 8%
    oth 7%

    Odd the LDs are so high there.
    Burnley was a LD seat in 2010.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    Anna Soubry was on Woman's Hour this am, not to everyone's taste I know, and she sees any tiny piece of silence as an opportunity to fill with wurdz. When asked if she would ever consider rejoining the Tories she said no, the rise of the Brexiteers obviously hastened her departure but BJism had permanently killed it for her.

    Interestingly on the period leading up to her crossing the floor and receiving abuse, death threats etc she said the absence of support from her colleagues on the blue benches was striking compared to expressions of sympathy from Lab, LD, SNP etc mps.
    I wouldn't mind seeing her joining Labour despite our history (we never managed to hit it off as I did with all the other Tories that I've fought) - she's a formidable character and brave in standing up for her opinions.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    The one who is ludicrous here is yourself

    You are blind to the implosion of the party under toxic Boris which is handing GE24 to Labour

    There are many thousands who will return to a credible conservative party led by a serious politician with serious policies
    I think that's right. There's not much enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour, although that could slowly start to change if he continues to make progress, which is why Tory MPs need to grasp the nettle now.

    A Sunak premiership which concentrates on delivering the levelling-up agenda could really do quite well. Boris aside, the Govt has a quite defensible record. And, as we saw in 1992, if the economy becomes problematic, the electorate is quite likely to cling to nurse even if the Tories have been in power for some time.

    But if Boris hangs around, the voters patience will well and truly run out, and that will be curtains for the Tories.
    I keep telling PB: Boris is going nowhere.

    Do you believe me yet?
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.
    So, if we gave Cummings and Johnson two decades, they could achieve millions dead in BritNat territories.

    The next Tory manifesto is going to go down in history.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
    The IT industry is also full of it.

    We now have woke firewalls, with allowlists and denylists in place of whitelists and blacklists; and now have primary and secondary servers, rather than master and slave.
    TBF the woke terms are better. Your firewall rules aren't thing like 192.168.1.0/24 * WHITE and a slave isn't a person who spends all day copying what the master does so they can take over as the new master if the master suddenly dies.
    Well, now that you put it like that…. ;)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs...
    You fellow scions of the working class, surely ?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,431

    Selebian said:

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
    Recently we changed the list of approved websites at work from 'White list' to 'Approved list'.
    Does make sense, imho. More descriptive name that actually tells you what it means if you're not familiar with the terminology.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

    You are an embarrassment to the conservative party
    Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

    I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

    The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Perhaps he just has a sense of humour ?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965
    Regarding masking – my son's headmaster has just written to all parents saying that they are keeping the masks in classrooms due to local authority guidance. Is this commonplace? Seems ludicrous to me that the rule is dropped but schools keep it anyway!
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs that that there's trolley with drinks and light refreshments is on board and/or there's a cafe/restaurant in coach D.
    Displays cover it for most use cases for those unfamiliar with the journey. Hard for the sight-impaired of course...

    Do German intercity trains still have a print out of the stops and times left at each seat? That was handy if you didn't have a clue, you could simply get off by time (and the times were generally near correct).

    I can really only see justification for two scheduled announcements per stop: on approach "we will shortly be arriving at X" and when the doors open at X "this is X, this train is for Y calling at A, B, C..." - the latter mostly for the benefit of people getting on.

    Sure, commuters don't need the stop announcements, if you're in a hurry you're probably tracking it on RTT anyway. But even people who are taking a journey for the thousandth time once took it for the first time.
    That said, announcements of the next stop, destination and so on can be better made on digital displays like they do in that there London.
    Those can scroll continuously in transit (along with everything else they want to say), but the two in question are definitely helped by an audible confirmation.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.
    So, if we gave Cummings and Johnson two decades, they could achieve millions dead in BritNat territories.

    The next Tory manifesto is going to go down in history.
    Whenever the "X was never tried properly" stuff comes up, I think that we need to start again, in alphabetical order.

    Absolute Monarchy first, of course. With myself as the Absolute Monarch......
  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    I bet it is true. Sue "must go where she needs to go" is the mantra so I'm sure she's gone there. But the email is to the PPS. Is this chap - this Martin Reynolds CMG - going to testify to SG that he checked with the PM and the PM okayed it. Logic says this is what happened but will he say that? Or will he take it all upon himself and say "I didn't" or "I don't recall" or "I did but I implied it was within the rules", in a show of 'greater love hath no servant than this, that he lay down his job and his reputation for his master'.
    This is exactly the point I was making yesterday
    He'll fudge it - 'Don't recall discussing it with PM...very busy...other things more important.'

    He will then be sacked and in due course rewarded with a nice job and a gong.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176

    Regarding masking – my son's headmaster has just written to all parents saying that they are keeping the masks in classrooms due to local authority guidance. Is this commonplace? Seems ludicrous to me that the rule is dropped but schools keep it anyway!

    I've no doubt that our University will carry on with masks too, much to my annoyance.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    Regarding masking – my son's headmaster has just written to all parents saying that they are keeping the masks in classrooms due to local authority guidance. Is this commonplace? Seems ludicrous to me that the rule is dropped but schools keep it anyway!

    Sadiq is doing the same with public transport in London.

    I’m generally in favour of mask wearing, but not compulsion now we are all vaccinated, and with exceptions for places such as schools where verbal communication is important and masks cause confusion and distraction.
  • Options

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again
    The Wragg story is quite astonishing. It's a long-standing nasty observation that Government money is directed to marginal seats that they hope to hold, which is as he says improper (though not surprising to hardened observers) but accusing Ministers or whips of criminal blackmail seems difficult to reconcile with still taking the Conservative whip.
    The allegation is breach of ministerial code - and 'potential' blackmail, so not quite the same thing.
    His words as quoted by the BBC were that it "would seem to constitute blackmail". And he apparently encouraged those targetted to contact the Speaker and the Metropolitan Police.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

    Lab 48%
    Con 37%
    LD 8%
    oth 7%

    Odd the LDs are so high there.
    I concur. Looks intrinsically odd. But maybe lots of Redwall voters are feeling f the both of you?
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    I think that article puts the kibosh on any attempts by Spencer to dilute the legislation given everyone will be on high alert.

    Mrs Ed is involved in the anti-BSL for dogs. They are now on something like their 3rd or 4th petition that is pass 100K signatures. Some signs the Government is getting tired of having to constantly defend its position (though DEFRA remain opposed to repeal).
    Dogs are taught British Sign Language (or not as the case may be)? What have we missed?
    Breed Specific Legislation in animal welfare circles old chap...
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

    You are an embarrassment to the conservative party
    Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

    I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

    The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟
    I hope not

    I hope next week sees the 54 letters delivered
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

    You are an embarrassment to the conservative party
    Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

    I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

    The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟
    Not my quote - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Harington_(writer)

    On the subject at hand - building a rebel coalition is a tricky business. Lots of conversations in odd corners etc.

    Granitia is shut, though... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blair–Brown_deal

    EDIT: The question is when it gets to the tipping point. Open knowledge that 54+ letters are in. Then it becomes a landslide quickly. And Treason stops being Treason....
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    edited January 2022
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

    I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

    It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

    Yes, and this lot sound pretty ineffective. In the good old days, the whips threatened to expose MPs' visits to ladies in basement flats and gay sex encounters.
    It is a potentially interesting question in law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackmail#Construction
    ...The law considers a "demand with menaces" to always be "unwarranted" (unjustified), unless the perpetrator actually believed that his/her demand had reasonable grounds, and also actually believed that the menace was a proper way to reinforce that demand. These tests relate to the actual belief of the perpetrator, not the belief of an ordinary or reasonable person. Therefore, tests related to what a "reasonable" person might think, and tests of dishonesty, are not often relevant - the matter hinges upon the actual and honest beliefs and knowledge of the perpetrator him/herself. ..
    Typical Johnson get out then:
    "I should have found some other way to coerce them and I should have recognised that even if the coercion could be said technically to fall within the law - given I believed it a proper way to enforce my demands of loayalty - there would be millions and millions of people who simply would not see it that way"
    There's an exemption if blackmail is work-related, isn't there?
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.
    So, if we gave Cummings and Johnson two decades, they could achieve millions dead in BritNat territories.

    The next Tory manifesto is going to go down in history.
    Whenever the "X was never tried properly" stuff comes up, I think that we need to start again, in alphabetical order.

    Absolute Monarchy first, of course. With myself as the Absolute Monarch......
    Aardvark Utopia first.

    Pinocchio Johnson has a suspiciously long snout…
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    I agree with HY on this one. Conservative Party leadership is a party matter at the end of the day, the view of us non Conservative voters at present or non party members is pretty meaningless?
    The views of people who might vote Conservative at the next election are surely relevant. I paid my £3 to vote against Corbyn because I knew that with him as leader I couldn't possibly vote for Labour but with another leader I could.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
    It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.
    While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.
    Not much to do with the UK government.

    It's now largely a Franco/Indian/South Korean venture.
    https://spacenews.com/eutelsat-ups-its-oneweb-stake-with-additional-165-million/
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Dickson, I think an Aardwolf Monarchy would be better.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965
    Sandpit said:

    Regarding masking – my son's headmaster has just written to all parents saying that they are keeping the masks in classrooms due to local authority guidance. Is this commonplace? Seems ludicrous to me that the rule is dropped but schools keep it anyway!

    Sadiq is doing the same with public transport in London.

    I’m generally in favour of mask wearing, but not compulsion now we are all vaccinated, and with exceptions for places such as schools where verbal communication is important and masks cause confusion and distraction.
    Indeed – why not just make it voluntary? Those who are worried can wear an FFP3 mask – that's a much more rational policy.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Starmer down to 11 as next PM.

    He was around 5-6, I think, before this kicked off.

    Yes, and I've done some of that. 33-40% chance of the GE being Johnson v Starmer. If it is, a 40-50% chance of Lab winning enough seats for Starmer PM. So 11 is good.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

    You are an embarrassment to the conservative party
    Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

    I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

    The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟
    I hope not

    I hope next week sees the 54 letters delivered
    Not.
    Going.
    To.
    Happen.

    The PCP is weak, weak, weak.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

    You are an embarrassment to the conservative party
    Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

    I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

    The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟
    I hope not

    I hope next week sees the 54 letters delivered
    If they are not, and especially if transpires (somehow) that, say, 30 were actually delivered I would expect the Whips to be giving some careful explanation to members about WHY the project planned for their constituency is not now going ahead. And why their pet project is very definitely OFF the agenda.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs that that there's trolley with drinks and light refreshments is on board and/or there's a cafe/restaurant in coach D.
    Displays cover it for most use cases for those unfamiliar with the journey. Hard for the sight-impaired of course...

    Do German intercity trains still have a print out of the stops and times left at each seat? That was handy if you didn't have a clue, you could simply get off by time (and the times were generally near correct).

    I can really only see justification for two scheduled announcements per stop: on approach "we will shortly be arriving at X" and when the doors open at X "this is X, this train is for Y calling at A, B, C..." - the latter mostly for the benefit of people getting on.

    Sure, commuters don't need the stop announcements, if you're in a hurry you're probably tracking it on RTT anyway. But even people who are taking a journey for the thousandth time once took it for the first time.
    That said, announcements of the next stop, destination and so on can be better made on digital displays like they do in that there London.
    Those can scroll continuously in transit (along with everything else they want to say), but the two in question are definitely helped by an audible confirmation.
    When have station announcements been audible or intelligible?

    The displays added to the outside of the trains themselves as well as inside are the best answer to the problem.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As an aside, listening to some of the rebellious Red Wall MPs - well, they don't sound like your archetypal rebels. They are sincere in wanting what's best for their constituents and working hard to improve the lot of the people they represent. You could almost call them One Nation Conservatives.

    That's what this is about though, isn't it - the battle for the Conservative soul. The ideologues around Johnson now realise those they helped get elected in 2019 aren't like them at all - instead, they are more like those who Johnson turfed out of the party after becoming leader.

    No. They were Remainers. These are Leavers.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,045
    edited January 2022
    Nigelb said:

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Perhaps he just has a sense of humour ?
    I think that was the joke the original poster (Gordon Guthrie, an ex New Lab strategist to SNP as it happens) who quote tweeted Goodwin's tweet was making. Goodwin's tweet is just plain barking, one to be added to the pile of Trump sympatico stuff he deleted.
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,434

    Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

    Lab 48%
    Con 37%
    LD 8%
    oth 7%

    Odd the LDs are so high there.
    I'm a bit surprised the Tory share is as high as 37% TBH. Suspect the LibDems, if squeezed, would break to Tories, as they are probably many of them 2019 Tory voters. And then there's the 7% "others" too. The Tories aren't doomed as they were post Black Wednesday and facing Blair. They just need to bin Boris.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    It’s the handbag protocols that I just can’t get my head around.

    Why do 50% of the adult population have to go about their daily business with one and a half kilos of junk attached to their shoulder?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.
    So, if we gave Cummings and Johnson two decades, they could achieve millions dead in BritNat territories.

    The next Tory manifesto is going to go down in history.
    Whenever the "X was never tried properly" stuff comes up, I think that we need to start again, in alphabetical order.

    Absolute Monarchy first, of course. With myself as the Absolute Monarch......
    Aardvark Utopia first.

    Pinocchio Johnson has a suspiciously long snout…
    Aardvark Autonomy would be before that. Since I now self identify as the Supreme Aardvark......
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607


    People in hospital *for* COVID decreasing, people in hospital *with* COVID still going up. Almost 50% of all patients in hospital wrt COVID are now there for something else.

    Next week we might even see incidental admissions overtake non-incidentals. The ONS death certificate stats have decoupled from the dashboard because of very high incidence over the last 28 days as well. The dashboard might be overstating daily hospitalisations as much as 50% and daily deaths by as much as 30% at the moment.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965
    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As an aside, listening to some of the rebellious Red Wall MPs - well, they don't sound like your archetypal rebels. They are sincere in wanting what's best for their constituents and working hard to improve the lot of the people they represent. You could almost call them One Nation Conservatives.

    That's what this is about though, isn't it - the battle for the Conservative soul. The ideologues around Johnson now realise those they helped get elected in 2019 aren't like them at all - instead, they are more like those who Johnson turfed out of the party after becoming leader.

    No. They were Remainers. These are Leavers.
    I suppose if there is a Red Wall archetype it's a fairly socially conservative, economically leftwing, pro-nationalisation, anti-woke Leaver.

    In years gone by, many such people would have been in the Labour party – many still are.
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    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs that that there's trolley with drinks and light refreshments is on board and/or there's a cafe/restaurant in coach D.
    Displays cover it for most use cases for those unfamiliar with the journey. Hard for the sight-impaired of course...

    Do German intercity trains still have a print out of the stops and times left at each seat? That was handy if you didn't have a clue, you could simply get off by time (and the times were generally near correct).

    I can really only see justification for two scheduled announcements per stop: on approach "we will shortly be arriving at X" and when the doors open at X "this is X, this train is for Y calling at A, B, C..." - the latter mostly for the benefit of people getting on.

    Sure, commuters don't need the stop announcements, if you're in a hurry you're probably tracking it on RTT anyway. But even people who are taking a journey for the thousandth time once took it for the first time.
    That said, announcements of the next stop, destination and so on can be better made on digital displays like they do in that there London.
    Those can scroll continuously in transit (along with everything else they want to say), but the two in question are definitely helped by an audible confirmation.
    When have station announcements been audible or intelligible?

    The displays added to the outside of the trains themselves as well as inside are the best answer to the problem.
    The recorded announcements on the trains I've been on have generally been pretty good. Live announcements, like announcements on stations, are much more variable - but I don't think the latter is what's under discussion by the government at the moment?

    When I travel on trains I tend to read, and a "ping! we're now approaching X" announcement is useful because it means I don't have to look up every time the train decelerates to see where I am.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    Then you have not read his posts and the nuance of his comments

    You are an embarrassment to the conservative party
    Is there any sense in the position Big G where rebels say, we got him where we want him now, we will ease off for the time being?

    I mean the Malmesbury quote “only if you succeed it’s not treason” is heavily influencing the media backers of Boris, like the Mail, Express, Sun who are presenting plotters as figures to hate the longer this goes on. And of course, Team Boris have all the power to retaliate

    The quote on here “we’ve got him where we want him, it’s all planned out, waiting till after May elections” it’s like a suicide note 😟
    I hope not

    I hope next week sees the 54 letters delivered
    Not.
    Going.
    To.
    Happen.

    The PCP is weak, weak, weak.
    I am of the opinion you hope it won't happen because a new leader of the conservative party, especially Rishi, would make the prospect of a Labour government in 24 less likely
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    The one who is ludicrous here is yourself

    You are blind to the implosion of the party under toxic Boris which is handing GE24 to Labour

    There are many thousands who will return to a credible conservative party led by a serious politician with serious policies
    I think that's right. There's not much enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour, although that could slowly start to change if he continues to make progress, which is why Tory MPs need to grasp the nettle now.

    A Sunak premiership which concentrates on delivering the levelling-up agenda could really do quite well. Boris aside, the Govt has a quite defensible record. And, as we saw in 1992, if the economy becomes problematic, the electorate is quite likely to cling to nurse even if the Tories have been in power for some time.

    But if Boris hangs around, the voters patience will well and truly run out, and that will be curtains for the Tories.
    I keep telling PB: Boris is going nowhere.

    Do you believe me yet?
    Yes.

    And my popcorn stockpile is absolutely humongous.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
    It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.
    While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.
    Not much to do with the UK government.

    It's now largely a Franco/Indian/South Korean venture.
    https://spacenews.com/eutelsat-ups-its-oneweb-stake-with-additional-165-million/
    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,965

    Redwall poll by JL Partners/Channel 4 News; 6-16 January

    Lab 48%
    Con 37%
    LD 8%
    oth 7%

    Odd the LDs are so high there.
    Burnley was a LD seat in 2010.
    A lot of Red Wall seats will have a baseline of 4-5% Lib Dem support. That 8% isn't completely insane if there are pockets where the Lib Dems have a 10% or so baseline in previous say 2015 elections.

    Now granted in a Labour / Tory swing seat a Lib Dem vote is a complete waste of a vote but that doesn't seemingly stop people voting for them.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,501
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
    It's a good job the UK government cracked down so hard on Russians laundering money in London.
    While subsidising the Russian space program through OneWeb/British Leyland In Space.
    Not much to do with the UK government.

    It's now largely a Franco/Indian/South Korean venture.
    https://spacenews.com/eutelsat-ups-its-oneweb-stake-with-additional-165-million/
    Tough one to keep track of.

    15-20% and a Golden Share iirc. And £2.3 billion of investment if reports are correct.

    No idea if UK Gov have further call options, or guarantees of part of the capacity.

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    It’s the handbag protocols that I just can’t get my head around.

    Why do 50% of the adult population have to go about their daily business with one and a half kilos of junk attached to their shoulder?
    1.5 Kilos? Ha! Ha!
This discussion has been closed.