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Punters give Johnson just a 32% chance of surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    If the 54 letters go in and Boris loses the vote does he need to be replaced as PM immediately?

    If Raab is made interim leader and thus PM, before Sunak wins the leadership race, then presumably Raab and not Sunak would be paid out by the bookies as Next PM?

    I'd be quite upset to lose £5000 due to a technicality like that.

    He only ceases to be PM if he resigns as PM. Whether he’s Tory leader is another question.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    If the 54 letters go in and Boris loses the vote does he need to be replaced as PM immediately?

    If Raab is made interim leader and thus PM, before Sunak wins the leadership race, then presumably Raab and not Sunak would be paid out by the bookies as Next PM?

    I'd be quite upset to lose £5000 due to a technicality like that.

    There’s no such thing as an interim PM, in the same way as there’s an interim party leader.

    If someone kisses the Queen’s hand and has their name published in the Gazette, they are the PM.
    Exactly that's why I said interim leader and thus PM.

    If Boris loses a VONC does that screw with next PM markets decoupling it from next permanent leader?
    Potentially yes, if he stands down as PM before the internal Tory leadership contest concludes.

    Someone has to be PM, so if Johnson walks there either needs to be a coronation of leader, or a PM appointed by the Cabinet until the contest concludes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited January 2022
    glw said:

    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).

    I love the way OneWeb has gone from a bad investment when the UK government bailed them out, to a good investment once other companies and countries jumped in but also now no longer anything to do with the UK government. It's almost as though the critics were basing the views on their opinion of the government rather than any merits of the technology and the financial investment.
    I don't think that's quite right, since the whole conversation started up with someone blaming HMG for supporting Russian launch services, which isn't the case - and it's very clear that we are now a minority shareholder in what looks to be a gamble that paid off.

    I'm quite happy to admit I was a sceptic at the time and have been proved wrong.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    There's a good history of posts along the lines of "I'm a life long Tory but this particular scandal* is enough for me to permanently change my mind".

    *scandals include Osborne once catching a train ...

    Deal with them as you see fit.
    Unless you voted Conservative in 2019 or 2015 when the Conservatives won a majority and the country voted Tory, you are highly unlikely to ever vote Conservative.

    So yes posters who do not come under the above category can be ignored if they say they will not be voting Tory as a result of this or that
    I have voted Con in every election since 1979 except 2005 (LD because Iraq). As of Air Petacci I would never vote for a Johnson government again, and if he is still in place at next PMQs it is highly unlikely I will vote Con again, at all.

    You are a Leutnant fighting a desultory minor skirmish at 10 in the morning, 11/11/18
    Hmm. Doesn't mean there won't be casualties. I was clearing a relative's house a few years back and found one of those War Office brown envelopes. Dear Madam, your husband etc etc was shot in the knee on 10 November 1918 ... blah, blah, in hospital ... He survived and became the local bank manager.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    One of those cases where one wants them both to lose, and, this being a defamation case, both of them almost certainly will:

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/carole-cadwalladr-witness-arron-banks-libel/

    Given the number of things that CC has got wrong, the number of corrections of her stories, and the number of claims that have been withdrawn, I'm inclined to see the imbroglio as a cautionary tale for journos to get things right.

    Just as the Katie Hopkins one was a cautionary tale about checking whom someone is before you insult them on twitter, then double down on your mistake.
    I hope Banks wins big on this one. Cadwalladr should not be able to throw accusations around like that without proof.
    Very curious claim to make today of all days. You think it should be possible for me to be bankrupted for saying the FLSOJ knew about the party, went to it knowing it was a party,and lied his tits off to the HoC, if a High Cout judge hoping for a peerage decides there is insufficient evidence to support the claim?
    You're a BTL commentator, she's supposed to be a serious journalist on a respectable paper. It wouldn't be illogical for her to be held to a higher standard.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    You lucky thing. I loved Sri Lanka - exciting place. My children have never forgotten that one of the first things we saw when leaving the airport was a live elephant in the back of a pick up truck.
    I’ve been here once before but that was “just a series of luxury hotels and exclusive tea plantations” - all very nice but I didn’t really see much of the real country. My assignments require me to be a bit more adventurous this time, tho right now I am clearly
    enjoying the faded British colonial grandeur of the Galle Face. Easing myself in, as it were
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited January 2022
    Pro_Rata said:

    Time for the rebels to consider what the talk is actually for. In the case of the ERG, it was to hold TMay's feet to the fire on the type of deal she got.

    For Boris, what is the demand? Rearrange your office? Change your personality? Stop the drip of scandals already occurred? I don't see what there is to semsibly extract. No, don't collude, don't talk endlessly to your colleagues about it, just write and post your letter in private or don't. Job done. And then 54 will either be hit or not. I remain convinced at that point he would be comfortably vonc'ed.

    Yes.
    I don't quite understand what the point is of "plotting".
    Write your letter. Hope 53 others do the same. Keep your gob shut and smile and nod politely at the whips.
    Job done.
    Boris can't change. He's in his late fifties, and is behaving exactly the same as he has always done.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited January 2022
    BigRich said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).

    I love the way OneWeb has gone from a bad investment when the UK government bailed them out, to a good investment once other companies and countries jumped in but also now no longer anything to do with the UK government. It's almost as though the critics were basing the views on their opinion of the government rather than any merits of the technology and the financial investment.
    It's gone from a brave but potentially very valuable call by Sharma, to a likely big win.

    The next thing needed is for BT to start using it to cover high speed internet gaps, which they are now at some stage of trialling.

    There should (presumably) be the same opportunity for most of Europe, as Oneweb now have their northern hemisphere satellite constellation in place.

    Albeit Russia is having a small quantity of kittens.
    Is OneWeb a direct competitor to Elon Musks StareLink? and does it have any intrinsic advantage?

    I'm no expert but it looks like a much smaller competitor where economy's of scale matter, is the risk that it terns in to the 'Betamax' of satellite communication?
    The main difference is that OneWeb is focussing on business-to-business infrastructure links, whereas Starlink is selling directly to end users.

    OneWeb’s customers are, BT, Virgin and Sky, Starlink’s customers are farmers and airlines - and you, if you want one.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    One of those cases where one wants them both to lose, and, this being a defamation case, both of them almost certainly will:

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/carole-cadwalladr-witness-arron-banks-libel/

    Given the number of things that CC has got wrong, the number of corrections of her stories, and the number of claims that have been withdrawn, I'm inclined to see the imbroglio as a cautionary tale for journos to get things right.

    Just as the Katie Hopkins one was a cautionary tale about checking whom someone is before you insult them on twitter, then double down on your mistake.
    I hope Banks wins big on this one. Cadwalladr should not be able to throw accusations around like that without proof.
    Very curious claim to make today of all days. You think it should be possible for me to be bankrupted for saying the FLSOJ knew about the party, went to it knowing it was a party,and lied his tits off to the HoC, if a High Cout judge hoping for a peerage decides there is insufficient evidence to support the claim?
    You're a BTL commentator, she's supposed to be a serious journalist on a respectable paper. It wouldn't be illogical for her to be held to a higher standard.
    It also wouldn't be the law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    There's a good history of posts along the lines of "I'm a life long Tory but this particular scandal* is enough for me to permanently change my mind".

    *scandals include Osborne once catching a train ...

    Deal with them as you see fit.
    Unless you voted Conservative in 2019 or 2015 when the Conservatives won a majority and the country voted Tory, you are highly unlikely to ever vote Conservative.

    So yes posters who do not come under the above category can be ignored if they say they will not be voting Tory as a result of this or that
    I have voted Con in every election since 1979 except 2005 (LD because Iraq). As of Air Petacci I would never vote for a Johnson government again, and if he is still in place at next PMQs it is highly unlikely I will vote Con again, at all.

    You are a Leutnant fighting a desultory minor skirmish at 10 in the morning, 11/11/18
    Well even in 2005 the Tories still won over 190 seats and 32% without you.

    Though yes I accept to win another majority we would probably need to win you back
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-news-latest-live-watch-pmqs-partygate-downing-street-keir-starmer-12514080?postid=3245127#liveblog-body

    Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates has been picking up a sense of nervousness in Number 10 over what could come out when the Sue Gray report is published next week.

    According to his sources, some in Downing Street are worried the Sue Gray investigation has come across damaging evidence, and are now doubtful the report will be able to "clear" Boris Johnson.

    The aim of the report is surely not to clear him but to give some teensy bit of plausibility to his story? Clearing him would just make the report as silly as the PM himself.
    The line is already obvious - "the PM accepts the criticisms, for which he takes full responsibility, but he is determined to carry on, delivering... etc".

    Not particularly credible, but as we've seen this week, there are Tories willing to swallow it. Whether sufficient will acquiesce, to keep the liar in place, is an open question.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    My observation is that the influential leaders of the Tory party having looked into the abyss and the alternatives on offer and have decided to stick with 'Big Dog'.

    That raises the real possibility that he will not only survive this, but go on to fight the General Election.

    Some Tories are in an invidious position. I suspect that we will see a myriad of excuses why they have changed their mind and decided to back Boris once again.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    Very jealous. Sri Lanka is my favourite place. The Galle Face is a great hotel, although I think I just prefer the Mount Lavinia - I got married there so perhaps I'm biased. Any plans while you're there? I'd recommend a visit to Ella, maybe the most beautiful spot in the country; Sigiriya is always fun but avoid weekends and public holidays unless you want to be upset by a lot of non queueing; Galle a lovely Dutch colonial era town. Barefoot on the Galle Road has great fabrics and other gifts to take home. I'm sure you know all this already.
  • MarylmiltonMarylmilton Posts: 12
    edited January 2022
    I can easily see Johnson riding it out for another 6-12 months and even still fighting the next election. The lack of loyalty shown to Johnson by other Conservative MPs is disgusting and they will look pretty foolish when Johnson performs better than expected in May and holds key flagship Conservative councils such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    You lucky thing. I loved Sri Lanka - exciting place. My children have never forgotten that one of the first things we saw when leaving the airport was a live elephant in the back of a pick up truck.
    I’ve been here once before but that was “just a series of luxury hotels and exclusive tea plantations” - all very nice but I didn’t really see much of the real country. My assignments require me to be a bit more adventurous this time, tho right now I am clearly
    enjoying the faded British colonial grandeur of the Galle Face. Easing myself in, as it were
    There are a few eco lodges. If you want something really basic and "in it" - and wonderful for it - go to the Polwaththa Eco Lodge near Kandy:

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g304138-d1886710-Reviews-Polwaththa_Eco_Lodges-Kandy_Kandy_District_Central_Province.html

  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    There's a good history of posts along the lines of "I'm a life long Tory but this particular scandal* is enough for me to permanently change my mind".

    *scandals include Osborne once catching a train ...

    Deal with them as you see fit.
    Also a good history of posts along the lines of 'I'm a life long Tory but I have special insight into the minds of youngish lefties who will inevitably turn right as they grow older'.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Jonathan said:

    My observation is that the influential leaders of the Tory party having looked into the abyss and the alternatives on offer and have decided to stick with 'Big Dog'.

    That raises the real possibility that he will not only survive this, but go on to fight the General Election.

    Some Tories are in an invidious position. I suspect that we will see a myriad of excuses why they have changed their mind and decided to back Boris once again.

    If so, that's probably the end to Tory rule. We are in a mid-90's situation. Playing for time.
    PS. Have now watched PMQ'S. Dreadful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Sandpit said:

    BigRich said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).

    I love the way OneWeb has gone from a bad investment when the UK government bailed them out, to a good investment once other companies and countries jumped in but also now no longer anything to do with the UK government. It's almost as though the critics were basing the views on their opinion of the government rather than any merits of the technology and the financial investment.
    It's gone from a brave but potentially very valuable call by Sharma, to a likely big win.

    The next thing needed is for BT to start using it to cover high speed internet gaps, which they are now at some stage of trialling.

    There should (presumably) be the same opportunity for most of Europe, as Oneweb now have their northern hemisphere satellite constellation in place.

    Albeit Russia is having a small quantity of kittens.
    Is OneWeb a direct competitor to Elon Musks StareLink? and does it have any intrinsic advantage?

    I'm no expert but it looks like a much smaller competitor where economy's of scale matter, is the risk that it terns in to the 'Betamax' of satellite communication?
    The main difference is that OneWeb is focussing on business-to-business infrastructure links, whereas Starlink is selling directly to end users.

    OneWeb’s customers are, BT, Virgin and Sky, Starlink’s customers are farmers and airlines.
    To be exact, Starlink is also targeting backhaul. OneWeb is backhaul only (at the moment).

    However, in the space and comms business, there is a stable market for "not the market leader". Quite a lot of people (and countries) pay a premium for diversity of supply. Hence not every single space launch going to SpaceX - despite them being the cheapest.....

    My guesstimate is that there is a solid place in this emerging market for 2 constellations.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    I'm not sure what Macron is quite the appeaser people are suggesting. There is something odd about Europe being effectively irrelevant to the debate on Ukraine.

    Germany feels more depressing. The SPD is the main problem though Scholz doesn't have a reputation for Russia philia. One thing I don't understand with regards to the German guilt complex. It's obviously there with the French and the Russians but what about the Poles, Baltic states, Ukraine etc? What exactly IS their attitude to their eastern neighbours?

    Obviously there used to be a large German diaspora in Eastern Europe that was forced back. Do they harbour a degree of resentment about this?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Sandpit said:

    BigRich said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).

    I love the way OneWeb has gone from a bad investment when the UK government bailed them out, to a good investment once other companies and countries jumped in but also now no longer anything to do with the UK government. It's almost as though the critics were basing the views on their opinion of the government rather than any merits of the technology and the financial investment.
    It's gone from a brave but potentially very valuable call by Sharma, to a likely big win.

    The next thing needed is for BT to start using it to cover high speed internet gaps, which they are now at some stage of trialling.

    There should (presumably) be the same opportunity for most of Europe, as Oneweb now have their northern hemisphere satellite constellation in place.

    Albeit Russia is having a small quantity of kittens.
    Is OneWeb a direct competitor to Elon Musks StareLink? and does it have any intrinsic advantage?

    I'm no expert but it looks like a much smaller competitor where economy's of scale matter, is the risk that it terns in to the 'Betamax' of satellite communication?
    The main difference is that OneWeb is focussing on business-to-business infrastructure links, whereas Starlink is selling directly to end users.

    OneWeb’s customers are, BT, Virgin and Sky, Starlink’s customers are farmers and airlines.
    Only in the UK - Starlink have been making a fortune by providing the last mile connectivity both directly and on the quiet for cable firms and others in the States given that the FCC has $16bn to spend on that connectivity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).

    I love the way OneWeb has gone from a bad investment when the UK government bailed them out, to a good investment once other companies and countries jumped in but also now no longer anything to do with the UK government. It's almost as though the critics were basing the views on their opinion of the government rather than any merits of the technology and the financial investment.
    I don't think that's quite right, since the whole conversation started up with someone blaming HMG for supporting Russian launch services, which isn't the case - and it's very clear that we are now a minority shareholder in what looks to be a gamble that paid off.

    I'm quite happy to admit I was a sceptic at the time and have been proved wrong.
    It wasn't a gamble when you consider the frequency allocations that OneWeb had were worth more than the company in the bankrupt state. More like free money.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Sri Lanka is also insanely cheap for a Brit

    10 years ago the £ was worth 176 Sri Lankan rupees. It is now worth 285


    A cheap country has become ever cheaper. Earlier on I had a cold beer and some freshly made hot spring rolls in the rooftop bar/infinity pool complex of a 5 star hotel. It cost about £3 in total
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    One of those cases where one wants them both to lose, and, this being a defamation case, both of them almost certainly will:

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/carole-cadwalladr-witness-arron-banks-libel/

    Given the number of things that CC has got wrong, the number of corrections of her stories, and the number of claims that have been withdrawn, I'm inclined to see the imbroglio as a cautionary tale for journos to get things right.

    Just as the Katie Hopkins one was a cautionary tale about checking whom someone is before you insult them on twitter, then double down on your mistake.
    I hope Banks wins big on this one. Cadwalladr should not be able to throw accusations around like that without proof.
    Very curious claim to make today of all days. You think it should be possible for me to be bankrupted for saying the FLSOJ knew about the party, went to it knowing it was a party,and lied his tits off to the HoC, if a High Cout judge hoping for a peerage decides there is insufficient evidence to support the claim?
    You're a BTL commentator, she's supposed to be a serious journalist on a respectable paper. It wouldn't be illogical for her to be held to a higher standard.
    He's trolling for a reaction/argument. As usual.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    edited January 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    My observation is that the influential leaders of the Tory party having looked into the abyss and the alternatives on offer and have decided to stick with 'Big Dog'.

    That raises the real possibility that he will not only survive this, but go on to fight the General Election.

    Some Tories are in an invidious position. I suspect that we will see a myriad of excuses why they have changed their mind and decided to back Boris once again.

    If so, that's probably the end to Tory rule. We are in a mid-90's situation. Playing for time.
    PS. Have now watched PMQ'S. Dreadful.
    It's clear that no10 is dysfunctional. If this Carries on he will lose. Boris' only chance is to use his planned post Gray fire-sale to install a professional team. He can be effective as a front-man, but someone else needs to govern and write the script.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    ...The lack of loyalty shown to Johnson by other Conservative MPs is disgusting...

    That's a keeper.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    My observation is that the influential leaders of the Tory party having looked into the abyss and the alternatives on offer and have decided to stick with 'Big Dog'.

    That raises the real possibility that he will not only survive this, but go on to fight the General Election.

    Some Tories are in an invidious position. I suspect that we will see a myriad of excuses why they have changed their mind and decided to back Boris once again.

    If so, that's probably the end to Tory rule. We are in a mid-90's situation. Playing for time.
    PS. Have now watched PMQ'S. Dreadful.
    It's clear that no10 is dysfunctional. If this Carries on he will lose. Boris' only chance is to use his planned post Gray fire-sale to install a professional team. He can be effective as a front-man, but someone else needs to govern and write the script.
    Yep, if he somehow manages to hang on, he needs to clear out everyone from No.10 and get a team of good communicators and strategists in place. But how do you solve a problem like Carrie?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-news-latest-live-watch-pmqs-partygate-downing-street-keir-starmer-12514080?postid=3245127#liveblog-body

    Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates has been picking up a sense of nervousness in Number 10 over what could come out when the Sue Gray report is published next week.

    According to his sources, some in Downing Street are worried the Sue Gray investigation has come across damaging evidence, and are now doubtful the report will be able to "clear" Boris Johnson.

    Damage limitation after leaking about what was likely to be in there, in their favour, by now leaking possibility of the other option, so no question they got an inside scoop (thus implicitly inpugning her integrity)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,785
    Mr. Jonathan, who'd go for that with the wife constantly there to meddle and dictate what her husband wants?

    Conservatives can choose to have a spine and survive, or repeat, writ large, their error of backing the cretin and bringing ruin upon themselves (and not exactly helping out the country).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    Very jealous. Sri Lanka is my favourite place. The Galle Face is a great hotel, although I think I just prefer the Mount Lavinia - I got married there so perhaps I'm biased. Any plans while you're there? I'd recommend a visit to Ella, maybe the most beautiful spot in the country; Sigiriya is always fun but avoid weekends and public holidays unless you want to be upset by a lot of non queueing; Galle a lovely Dutch colonial era town. Barefoot on the Galle Road has great fabrics and other gifts to take home. I'm sure you know all this already.
    Yes I kinda know those - did them last time

    This time I am intrigued by the far north and wild east . Jaffna!
  • Taz said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    One of those cases where one wants them both to lose, and, this being a defamation case, both of them almost certainly will:

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/carole-cadwalladr-witness-arron-banks-libel/

    Given the number of things that CC has got wrong, the number of corrections of her stories, and the number of claims that have been withdrawn, I'm inclined to see the imbroglio as a cautionary tale for journos to get things right.

    Just as the Katie Hopkins one was a cautionary tale about checking whom someone is before you insult them on twitter, then double down on your mistake.
    I hope Banks wins big on this one. Cadwalladr should not be able to throw accusations around like that without proof.
    Very curious claim to make today of all days. You think it should be possible for me to be bankrupted for saying the FLSOJ knew about the party, went to it knowing it was a party,and lied his tits off to the HoC, if a High Cout judge hoping for a peerage decides there is insufficient evidence to support the claim?
    You're a BTL commentator, she's supposed to be a serious journalist on a respectable paper. It wouldn't be illogical for her to be held to a higher standard.
    He's trolling for a reaction/argument. As usual.
    Your oath of Omertà regarding communications with IshmaelZ doesn't cover proxy comment I gather.
  • Cookie said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    We got a new kitchen in 2019. My one regret - though my wife slightly laughs at this - is that we didn't get two dishwashers. I honestly never thought of it as an option. But when it was reported to me - with much derision - that a friend was thinking of getting two dishwashers, I could instantly see all the upsides. We could have fit it in if we'd found another home for children's cups (honestly, who else has a whole cupboard just for children's cups?).
    We have three children and both work at home. There are never not things queuing for the dishwasher. As soon as it finished it is reloaded, and still there are leftovers waiting for the next cycle. The kitchen designer laughed at me when I said I needed somewhere in the kitchen for things to queue for the dishwasher. But he doesn't have three children.
    It seems a ridiculous indulgence, and I am not normally one for luxuries. But I wish we'd done it.
    Two dishwashers is great for a small kitchen or holiday home. You don't need so much cupboard space. Take from one, use and then load as dirty into the other. Strongly recommend.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    I'm not sure what Macron is quite the appeaser people are suggesting. There is something odd about Europe being effectively irrelevant to the debate on Ukraine.

    Germany feels more depressing. The SPD is the main problem though Scholz doesn't have a reputation for Russia philia. One thing I don't understand with regards to the German guilt complex. It's obviously there with the French and the Russians but what about the Poles, Baltic states, Ukraine etc? What exactly IS their attitude to their eastern neighbours?

    Obviously there used to be a large German diaspora in Eastern Europe that was forced back. Do they harbour a degree of resentment about this?

    "used to be a large German diaspora in Eastern Europe that was forced back"

    They are still about. They are studiously ignored by the government and their claims for recompense denied, over and over again.

    The German political thing is more about "East Politics" - a policy position that dates back to Bismarck and before. This strain of political thought is that Russia and Germany should be friends, allies etc. When you multiply that by the War Guilt narrative, it is powerful position. And in the money.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).

    I love the way OneWeb has gone from a bad investment when the UK government bailed them out, to a good investment once other companies and countries jumped in but also now no longer anything to do with the UK government. It's almost as though the critics were basing the views on their opinion of the government rather than any merits of the technology and the financial investment.
    I don't think that's quite right, since the whole conversation started up with someone blaming HMG for supporting Russian launch services, which isn't the case - and it's very clear that we are now a minority shareholder in what looks to be a gamble that paid off.

    I'm quite happy to admit I was a sceptic at the time and have been proved wrong.
    It wasn't a gamble when you consider the frequency allocations that OneWeb had were worth more than the company in the bankrupt state. More like free money.
    Fair enough.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    My observation is that the influential leaders of the Tory party having looked into the abyss and the alternatives on offer and have decided to stick with 'Big Dog'.

    That raises the real possibility that he will not only survive this, but go on to fight the General Election.

    Some Tories are in an invidious position. I suspect that we will see a myriad of excuses why they have changed their mind and decided to back Boris once again.

    If so, that's probably the end to Tory rule. We are in a mid-90's situation. Playing for time.
    PS. Have now watched PMQ'S. Dreadful.
    It's clear that no10 is dysfunctional. If this Carries on he will lose. Boris' only chance is to use his planned post Gray fire-sale to install a professional team. He can be effective as a front-man, but someone else needs to govern and write the script.
    I wonder if he's burned through all the capital to be the front man though?
    Who's going to buy what he's selling any more?
    Enough to win?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    It's the UK government and the Indians calling the shots - Eutelsat is getting grief from certain quarters in the EU for "defecting" to a non-European constellation. Particularly now it is clear that they are not gong to use either European launchers or launchers provided via Europe (the Russian connection).

    I love the way OneWeb has gone from a bad investment when the UK government bailed them out, to a good investment once other companies and countries jumped in but also now no longer anything to do with the UK government. It's almost as though the critics were basing the views on their opinion of the government rather than any merits of the technology and the financial investment.
    I don't think that's quite right, since the whole conversation started up with someone blaming HMG for supporting Russian launch services, which isn't the case - and it's very clear that we are now a minority shareholder in what looks to be a gamble that paid off.

    I'm quite happy to admit I was a sceptic at the time and have been proved wrong.
    It wasn't a gamble when you consider the frequency allocations that OneWeb had were worth more than the company in the bankrupt state. More like free money.
    Fair enough.
    It was an interesting case - a bit like Iridium before it. Before bankruptcy, a terrible investment. After the bankruptcy - even the remains of the business, if closed down, were worth more that the asking price. You couldn't lose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    I'm not sure what Macron is quite the appeaser people are suggesting. There is something odd about Europe being effectively irrelevant to the debate on Ukraine.

    Germany feels more depressing. The SPD is the main problem though Scholz doesn't have a reputation for Russia philia. One thing I don't understand with regards to the German guilt complex. It's obviously there with the French and the Russians but what about the Poles, Baltic states, Ukraine etc? What exactly IS their attitude to their eastern neighbours?

    Obviously there used to be a large German diaspora in Eastern Europe that was forced back. Do they harbour a degree of resentment about this?

    "used to be a large German diaspora in Eastern Europe that was forced back"

    They are still about. They are studiously ignored by the government and their claims for recompense denied, over and over again.

    The German political thing is more about "East Politics" - a policy position that dates back to Bismarck and before. This strain of political thought is that Russia and Germany should be friends, allies etc. When you multiply that by the War Guilt narrative, it is powerful position. And in the money.....
    If we're all still here, I wonder if that will change in a decade or so's time when renewables have supplanted a large part of the gas imports.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    Very jealous. Sri Lanka is my favourite place. The Galle Face is a great hotel, although I think I just prefer the Mount Lavinia - I got married there so perhaps I'm biased. Any plans while you're there? I'd recommend a visit to Ella, maybe the most beautiful spot in the country; Sigiriya is always fun but avoid weekends and public holidays unless you want to be upset by a lot of non queueing; Galle a lovely Dutch colonial era town. Barefoot on the Galle Road has great fabrics and other gifts to take home. I'm sure you know all this already.
    What I DO need is places that are genuinely mysterious, maybe even unsettling, haunted, eerie. I have heard that the far northern islands off Jaffna are like that. Hence my interest

    I also need recommendations for food! My one and only previous trip - despite the luxury and beauty, and Sri Lanka is gorgeous in so many ways - was really disappointing for tucker. And we didn’t just eat in posh westernized places, we tried everything. At best it was “quite pleasant”. At worst, deeply mediocre and banal

    Yet many people I trust rave about Sri Lankan food. I have to find the good stuff…
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    It’s the handbag protocols that I just can’t get my head around.

    Why do 50% of the adult population have to go about their daily business with one and a half kilos of junk attached to their shoulder?
    Same reason you have handicaps in golf?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
    Stalin had tow decades, Cummings about a year for a start.
    So, if we gave Cummings and Johnson two decades, they could achieve millions dead in BritNat territories.

    The next Tory manifesto is going to go down in history.
    Whenever the "X was never tried properly" stuff comes up, I think that we need to start again, in alphabetical order.

    Absolute Monarchy first, of course. With myself as the Absolute Monarch......
    Aardvark Utopia first.

    Pinocchio Johnson has a suspiciously long snout…
    Aardvark Autonomy would be before that. Since I now self identify as the Supreme Aardvark......
    And I am the Absolute Aardvark in the Aardvark Absolutism
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    One of those cases where one wants them both to lose, and, this being a defamation case, both of them almost certainly will:

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/carole-cadwalladr-witness-arron-banks-libel/

    Given the number of things that CC has got wrong, the number of corrections of her stories, and the number of claims that have been withdrawn, I'm inclined to see the imbroglio as a cautionary tale for journos to get things right.

    Just as the Katie Hopkins one was a cautionary tale about checking whom someone is before you insult them on twitter, then double down on your mistake.
    I hope Banks wins big on this one. Cadwalladr should not be able to throw accusations around like that without proof.
    Very curious claim to make today of all days. You think it should be possible for me to be bankrupted for saying the FLSOJ knew about the party, went to it knowing it was a party,and lied his tits off to the HoC, if a High Cout judge hoping for a peerage decides there is insufficient evidence to support the claim?
    You're a BTL commentator, she's supposed to be a serious journalist on a respectable paper. It wouldn't be illogical for her to be held to a higher standard.
    He's trolling for a reaction/argument. As usual.
    I don't know exactly what you have sand in your fanny about, but please don't intervene in conversations between other posters with posts whose subtext is "I am too stupid and ill informed to understand this subject, which makes me feel people are getting at me. "

    Responding to the actual point the Reynolds decision in 2001 required "responsible journalism" tests to be met, pretty much expressly putting journalists in a separate category. S.4 of the 2013 Act codified Reynolds and does not refer to journalists as a separate category
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Boris "sees no evidence" of Wragg's claims.
    Par for the course.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    I'm not sure what Macron is quite the appeaser people are suggesting. There is something odd about Europe being effectively irrelevant to the debate on Ukraine.

    Germany feels more depressing. The SPD is the main problem though Scholz doesn't have a reputation for Russia philia. One thing I don't understand with regards to the German guilt complex. It's obviously there with the French and the Russians but what about the Poles, Baltic states, Ukraine etc? What exactly IS their attitude to their eastern neighbours?

    Obviously there used to be a large German diaspora in Eastern Europe that was forced back. Do they harbour a degree of resentment about this?

    Its much worse than that.

    Both the EU and Biden's America are sending the signal that might is right, that troop build ups and shows of strength work with them, whilst democratic states are to be tied up in knots, fobbed off or intimidated when negotiating through proper channels.

    Its extremely dangerous and the opposite of the signals they should be sending, surely.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    I love you HY. You are the ideal opponent. You really go the extra mile to make prospective supporters flee in the opposite direction. It is a pleasure to see you in action.
    Farooq has never expressed a single conservative view on here as far as I can see, it would not be a Conservative party if he ever voted for it
    I’m centre-right, and indeed have served as a councillor for a centre-right party. Go on, just as a wee exercise, try to persuade me to vote Scottish Conservative and Unionist.
    If Scotland were independent would you vote Scottish Centre-Right Party?
  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    There's a good history of posts along the lines of "I'm a life long Tory but this particular scandal* is enough for me to permanently change my mind".

    *scandals include Osborne once catching a train ...

    Deal with them as you see fit.
    Also a good history of posts along the lines of 'I'm a life long Tory but I have special insight into the minds of youngish lefties who will inevitably turn right as they grow older'.
    BURNERGATE!!!1!!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241
    dixiedean said:

    Boris "sees no evidence" of Wragg's claims.
    Par for the course.

    It's not a denial of course. Why do the news media not lead with "Boris refuses to deny claims of blackmail"?
  • Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    There's a good history of posts along the lines of "I'm a life long Tory but this particular scandal* is enough for me to permanently change my mind".

    *scandals include Osborne once catching a train ...

    Deal with them as you see fit.
    Unless you voted Conservative in 2019 or 2015 when the Conservatives won a majority and the country voted Tory, you are highly unlikely to ever vote Conservative.

    So yes posters who do not come under the above category can be ignored if they say they will not be voting Tory as a result of this or that
    I have voted Con in every election since 1979 except 2005 (LD because Iraq). As of Air Petacci I would never vote for a Johnson government again, and if he is still in place at next PMQs it is highly unlikely I will vote Con again, at all.

    You are a Leutnant fighting a desultory minor skirmish at 10 in the morning, 11/11/18
    Hmm. Doesn't mean there won't be casualties. I was clearing a relative's house a few years back and found one of those War Office brown envelopes. Dear Madam, your husband etc etc was shot in the knee on 10 November 1918 ... blah, blah, in hospital ... He survived and became the local bank manager.
    I bet the overdraft facilities got a lot tighter when the damp weather came in to give his knee gyp. Not to mention the memories..
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    He says she has an email to the PM's principal private secretary. That is not an email to the PM.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited January 2022
    Jonathan said:

    My observation is that the influential leaders of the Tory party having looked into the abyss and the alternatives on offer and have decided to stick with 'Big Dog'.

    That raises the real possibility that he will not only survive this, but go on to fight the General Election.

    Some Tories are in an invidious position. I suspect that we will see a myriad of excuses why they have changed their mind and decided to back Boris once again.

    Which will be fun to follow. But we hope & pray that plenty of those who voted Tory in Dec 19 don't do that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    We have a bunch of local cyclists who I call The Fat Men On Fixies. Because they are. At speed (always downhill) the resemblance to a collection of Zeppelins/Whitcomb Bodies is remarkable.

    I think they should concentrate on losing 30 kilos each, before they spend 5 figures on a bike which they can't ride, and causing collisions with pedestrians and other cyclists....
  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    There's a good history of posts along the lines of "I'm a life long Tory but this particular scandal* is enough for me to permanently change my mind".

    *scandals include Osborne once catching a train ...

    Deal with them as you see fit.
    Also a good history of posts along the lines of 'I'm a life long Tory but I have special insight into the minds of youngish lefties who will inevitably turn right as they grow older'.
    BURNERGATE!!!1!!
    Yes, that whole meme of the Tory party twisting itself into knots to hide/destroy evidence of its corruption, hypocrisy and general shitbaggery was a bit of a bust.
  • dixiedean said:

    Boris "sees no evidence" of Wragg's claims.
    Par for the course.

    Lol! Well if he didn't see any evidence of a party he's not going to see anything as abstract as blackmail.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    He says she has an email to the PM's principal private secretary. That is not an email to the PM.
    Yes

    Ever since primary school I have generally come quite high up the upper quartile in reading and comprehension tests

    Cummings has never claimed an email to Johnson himself exists
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    What about 2017?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    Are the most relevant people to listen to those who voted Tory at the 2019 Euros?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    Very jealous. Sri Lanka is my favourite place. The Galle Face is a great hotel, although I think I just prefer the Mount Lavinia - I got married there so perhaps I'm biased. Any plans while you're there? I'd recommend a visit to Ella, maybe the most beautiful spot in the country; Sigiriya is always fun but avoid weekends and public holidays unless you want to be upset by a lot of non queueing; Galle a lovely Dutch colonial era town. Barefoot on the Galle Road has great fabrics and other gifts to take home. I'm sure you know all this already.
    What I DO need is places that are genuinely mysterious, maybe even unsettling, haunted, eerie. I have heard that the far northern islands off Jaffna are like that. Hence my interest

    I also need recommendations for food! My one and only previous trip - despite the luxury and beauty, and Sri Lanka is gorgeous in so many ways - was really disappointing for tucker. And we didn’t just eat in posh westernized places, we tried everything. At best it was “quite pleasant”. At worst, deeply mediocre and banal

    Yet many people I trust rave about Sri Lankan food. I have to find the good stuff…
    There's a British fish & chip pub in Colombo. I hear the guacamole is superb.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Blair on WATO.
    Presenter can't help ask about the BBC!
    What possible relevance or influence does he have whatever he thinks?
    And. No one is interested.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    Eh? Plenty of people could have voted Tory in 2010 but then other parties 2015, 2017 and 2019.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Boris Johnson also saw no evidence of a party that he attended either. https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1484152145750499337
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨NEW polling for @Independent on likelihood to vote Conservative at the next GE under different leaders.

    💼Three in ten more likely to vote Con under Sunak (31%).

    👱🏻‍♂️Over two in five LESS likely to vote Con under Johnson (44%). https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1484148608601571332/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Did Boris Johnson Covid party himself right out of a job? https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1484149712596963331/video/1
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    It doesn't state anywhere on my Apollo Highway whether the rims are carbon fibre. Should I assume no.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    Are the most relevant people to listen to those who voted Tory at the 2019 Euros?
    Splitters, splitters all of them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    dixiedean said:

    Boris "sees no evidence" of Wragg's claims.
    Par for the course.

    Yes I noted that from BJ and the No.10 statement. It's another no evidence refutation, not it didn't happen refutation.

    It's all about plausible deniability.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Final intrastat done. Maybe forever. Now that really is Brexit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Applicant said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris "sees no evidence" of Wragg's claims.
    Par for the course.

    Bernard: "That's because you haven't been looking..."
    Humphrey: "And because we haven't shown you!"
    Showing people stuff that they don't want to know - in a way that they can't deny having been shown the information - is seen as extremely unpleasant, aggressive and insubordinate in a number of business and social contexts.

    For example, sending an email with a massive CC list on a topic can get you binned, for offensively trying to cover your own arse while hanging others out to dry.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    What about 2017?
    No Tory majority.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    He says she has an email to the PM's principal private secretary. That is not an email to the PM.
    And if the PM’s PPS has any sense, he would have realised that the gathering might be controversial, and ensure that nothing was said to him about it in writing.
  • Is DRoss still nominally a Conservative? Because he seems to be an opposition spokesman these days. What does he and Wragg and Davies and the others have to do to get Ken Clark'd out of the party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    Eh? Plenty of people could have voted Tory in 2010 but then other parties 2015, 2017 and 2019.
    No Tory majority. 2015 or 2019 Tory voters most important to hold as 2015 or 2019 when there were Tory majorities.

    Though very few who did not vote Tory in 2015 or 2019 did vote Tory in 2005, 2010 or 2017 anyway
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    It doesn't state anywhere on my Apollo Highway whether the rims are carbon fibre. Should I assume no.
    Nope clean and dirty. I have a boring car that does the job and does not break down. On the bike the forks are carbon but not the rims.

    https://www.housebeautiful.com/design-inspiration/home-makeovers/a25462393/two-dishwasher-kitchen-ideas/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    alex_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Regarding masking – my son's headmaster has just written to all parents saying that they are keeping the masks in classrooms due to local authority guidance. Is this commonplace? Seems ludicrous to me that the rule is dropped but schools keep it anyway!

    Sadiq is doing the same with public transport in London.

    I’m generally in favour of mask wearing, but not compulsion now we are all vaccinated, and with exceptions for places such as schools where verbal communication is important and masks cause confusion and distraction.
    Indeed – why not just make it voluntary? Those who are worried can wear an FFP3 mask – that's a much more rational policy.
    I fear that due to the endless appeals to people’s sense of altruism about how a mask is worn to protect others rather than yourself, that too many people don’t appreciate quite how much personal protection a good mask can give. If this was more widely understood then I think the whole debate about mask wearing would be very different and there would be far more tolerance of mask and non-mask wearers alike. And, frankly, less of a sense of blind terror of leaving the house that a not insignificant proportion of the population appear to currently experience.
    Absolutely, and I'll add to that that nobody (at least I think not?!) is suggesting banning masks – it is the mandates that have been dropped.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW polling for @Independent on likelihood to vote Conservative at the next GE under different leaders.

    💼Three in ten more likely to vote Con under Sunak (31%).

    👱🏻‍♂️Over two in five LESS likely to vote Con under Johnson (44%). https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1484148608601571332/photo/1

    What was Sunak's figures for less likely to vote Tory?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    What about 2017?
    No Tory majority.
    Which proves my point - if a 2017 Tory voter didn't vote Tory in 2019 (because say Boris) their views are actually more relevant rather than not going forward.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    Very jealous. Sri Lanka is my favourite place. The Galle Face is a great hotel, although I think I just prefer the Mount Lavinia - I got married there so perhaps I'm biased. Any plans while you're there? I'd recommend a visit to Ella, maybe the most beautiful spot in the country; Sigiriya is always fun but avoid weekends and public holidays unless you want to be upset by a lot of non queueing; Galle a lovely Dutch colonial era town. Barefoot on the Galle Road has great fabrics and other gifts to take home. I'm sure you know all this already.
    What I DO need is places that are genuinely mysterious, maybe even unsettling, haunted, eerie. I have heard that the far northern islands off Jaffna are like that. Hence my interest

    I also need recommendations for food! My one and only previous trip - despite the luxury and beauty, and Sri Lanka is gorgeous in so many ways - was really disappointing for tucker. And we didn’t just eat in posh westernized places, we tried everything. At best it was “quite pleasant”. At worst, deeply mediocre and banal

    Yet many people I trust rave about Sri Lankan food. I have to find the good stuff…
    Green Cabin on Galle Road (Kollupitiya) does really good authentic Sri Lankan food. They have Lamprais which is Dutch-influenced. I've never had it because it isn't veggie but my wife who's Sri Lankan raves about it. I love the weekend buffet they have at Mount Lavinia too.
    I don't know about spooky but a walk up Adam's Peak to see the dawn from the top is meant to be very atmospheric, I've not done it. The temples and other ancient sites at Anuradhapura and Pollunarawa have plenty of atmosphere too, especially at dawn or dusk. The Grand Hotel in Nuera Elliya is a real colonial era mock tudor pile and is a bit spooky actually.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    It doesn't state anywhere on my Apollo Highway whether the rims are carbon fibre. Should I assume no.
    He's talking about stuff like this - https://www.specialized.com/gb/en/s-works-tarmac-sl7---sram-red-etap-axs/p/199464?color=321600-199464 - I think
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    We have a bunch of local cyclists who I call The Fat Men On Fixies. Because they are. At speed (always downhill) the resemblance to a collection of Zeppelins/Whitcomb Bodies is remarkable.

    I think they should concentrate on losing 30 kilos each, before they spend 5 figures on a bike which they can't ride, and causing collisions with pedestrians and other cyclists....
    The Michelin Men, surely?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited January 2022
    As suspected, Klopp was talking bollocks about false positives:

    https://twitter.com/TheAthleticUK/status/1484073460108337154

    The Athletic UK
    @TheAthleticUK
    ▪️ #LFC originally returned negative COVID tests
    ▪️ Then ordered extra ones that weren't required
    ▪️ They turned up positives so game v #Arsenal called off
    ▪️ But tests were faulty though that was not made public at first

    📝
    @Simon_Hughes__

    Liverpool thought they might have an outbreak after the Chelsea game on 2 January. However, all the players tested negative on LFTs at the training ground. But that wasn't good enough for them, so they got a company called BioGrad to PCR test them. That's not the regular PL tester. That is Prenetics, who, apparently, are slower. The BioGrad tests came back positive and, even though the Prenetics tests came back negative, the Arsenal game was called off because a negative test cannot overrule a positive test. It was only when another round of Prenetics tests came back negative that it was obvious that the BioGrad tests were wrong.

    So Klopp was wrong to use the phrase false positives. The tests they got done - and they didn't have to get them done as the LFTs said negative - were faulty.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    People in hospital *for* COVID decreasing, people in hospital *with* COVID still going up. Almost 50% of all patients in hospital wrt COVID are now there for something else.

    Next week we might even see incidental admissions overtake non-incidentals. The ONS death certificate stats have decoupled from the dashboard because of very high incidence over the last 28 days as well. The dashboard might be overstating daily hospitalisations as much as 50% and daily deaths by as much as 30% at the moment.

    I think there will be news on this soon - trailed last night by Javid.
    Hopefully the dashboard or daily released stats will differentiate with and for COVID in hospitalisations as well as with/from COVID for deaths, even if it's just for England right now that would add a lot of clarity to the discussions around what's actually happening.
    On R5 this morning a poo sniffer bio-medical scientist spouted off about why we should keep masks etc based on cases (surely pointless measure now) and deaths (she quote about 1700 a week). They did at least have Chris Smith (from the naked scientists) to redress the balance in the whole dying from and with covid. Sadly we NEED clarity on this as too many will either not understand or deliberately miss-use the dashboard numbers.
    Indeed, we saw it with hospitalisations at the beginning of the Omicron wave when the dashboard which includes all incidental admissions was being compared to the rubbish models which are specifically *for* COVID admissions despite at least 40% of real world being *with* COVID at the time.

    It does seem as though the decision makers have wised up to this though, I don't think we'd have been able to stay out of lockdown if there wasn't a basic understanding of the with/for difference in December.
    Maybe just a straw in the wind, but Sophie Raworth on Beeb 6 last night made a point of saying that of the official deaths recorded yesterday, some of them were not from covid. I thought that was interesting as I haven't heard that on the telly news before.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    himself is hardly yo be expected
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    He says she has an email to the PM's principal private secretary. That is not an email to the PM.
    Yes

    Ever since primary school I have generally come quite high up the upper quartile in reading and comprehension tests

    Cummings has never claimed an email to Johnson himself exists
    An email to the PM himself is hardly to be expected. What would it say? 'Dear PM, this Party appears to be against the rules which you yourself have made...'

    It would be one senior official to another on the entirely reasonable assumption that said official will warn the PM as he or she sees fit. The ball is then very much in the court of the PM's secretary. My guess is that it would be raised briefly with the PM and if, say, the PM indicates, implicitly or otherwise, that said party will go ahead the official in question then demurs, making the appropriate diary note of the fact. Absent such a note, the official would of course now be in deep doo-doo with every prospect of the sack pending, and only the prospect of an easy well-paid job and peerage at some future date to soften the blow.
  • Is DRoss still nominally a Conservative? Because he seems to be an opposition spokesman these days. What does he and Wragg and Davies and the others have to do to get Ken Clark'd out of the party?

    Ken Clarke voted against the Conservative three line whip on a Commons vote termed a confidence vote.

    No different whatsoever to John Major expelling Rupert Allason.

    Although none of Major's "bastards" went as far as Clarke did in voting in the Opposition lobbies in the confidence vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
    That depends. If you're talking about looking forward from here, then, yes, that's the point I'm getting to, so you merely agree with me.

    If you're talking about the past, then no, you're wrong, because I have voted Conservative in the past.

    I don't need you to decide on my purity because I am proud of being a floating voter. Luckily there are multiple parties out there who are acceptable to my tastes. Perhaps I'm just being greedy in wanting the Conservative party to return to being one of them.
    Did you vote Conservative in 2015 or 2019 when the Conservatives won a UK majority? If no your views are irrelevant for Tories as you will almost never vote Tory anyway
    What about 2017?
    No Tory majority.
    Which proves my point - if a 2017 Tory voter didn't vote Tory in 2019 (because say Boris) their views are actually more relevant rather than not going forward.
    No, as even if they voted Tory again if the Tories lost all the voters who voted Tory in 2019 but Labour in 2017 they would still lose their majority
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    It doesn't state anywhere on my Apollo Highway whether the rims are carbon fibre. Should I assume no.
    He's talking about stuff like this - https://www.specialized.com/gb/en/s-works-tarmac-sl7---sram-red-etap-axs/p/199464?color=321600-199464 - I think
    Yes, he spends more on his bike than many of us spend on a car.

    I’m looking at Porsches cheaper than that bike.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    It doesn't state anywhere on my Apollo Highway whether the rims are carbon fibre. Should I assume no.
    He's talking about stuff like this - https://www.specialized.com/gb/en/s-works-tarmac-sl7---sram-red-etap-axs/p/199464?color=321600-199464 - I think
    I thought assume no was the safe bet.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
    He says she has an email to the PM's principal private secretary. That is not an email to the PM.
    And if the PM’s PPS has any sense, he would have realised that the gathering might be controversial, and ensure that nothing was said to him about it in writing.
    If he had that much sense the actual invite would have been word of mouth though (not difficult if all invitees in same building, all the more important if all not in same building) so he hasn't

    I have never been a Prime Minister, or at least not in the email era, but I'd believe someone who told me that PMs don't receive emails at all and the closest you can ever get is emailing the pps. Seems sense to have someone doing some gatekeeping
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    MrEd said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW polling for @Independent on likelihood to vote Conservative at the next GE under different leaders.

    💼Three in ten more likely to vote Con under Sunak (31%).

    👱🏻‍♂️Over two in five LESS likely to vote Con under Johnson (44%). https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1484148608601571332/photo/1

    What was Sunak's figures for less likely to vote Tory?
    24%.

    Every other alternative had more less likely than more likely, Truss and Hunt had even fewer more likely than Boris
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    edited January 2022
    delete


  • tlg86 said:

    As suspected, Klopp was talking bollocks about false positives:

    https://twitter.com/TheAthleticUK/status/1484073460108337154

    The Athletic UK
    @TheAthleticUK
    ▪️ #LFC originally returned negative COVID tests
    ▪️ Then ordered extra ones that weren't required
    ▪️ They turned up positives so game v #Arsenal called off
    ▪️ But tests were faulty though that was not made public at first

    📝
    @Simon_Hughes__

    Liverpool thought they might have an outbreak after the Chelsea game on 2 January. However, all the players tested negative on LFTs at the training ground. But that wasn't good enough for them, so they got a company called BioGrad to PCR test them. That's not the regular PL tester. That is Prenetics, who, apparently, are slower. The BioGrad tests came back positive and, even though the Prenetics tests came back negative, the Arsenal game was called off because a negative test cannot overrule a positive test. It was only when another round of Prenetics tests came back negative that it was obvious that the BioGrad tests were wrong.

    So Klopp was wrong to use the phrase false positives. The tests they got done - and they didn't have to get them done as the LFTs said negative - were faulty.

    What is a faulty positive if not a false positive?

    The fact that they were faulty demonstrates it was a false positive, and not as some claimed here at the time false negatives.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022
    tlg86 said:

    As suspected, Klopp was talking bollocks about false positives:

    https://twitter.com/TheAthleticUK/status/1484073460108337154

    The Athletic UK
    @TheAthleticUK
    ▪️ #LFC originally returned negative COVID tests
    ▪️ Then ordered extra ones that weren't required
    ▪️ They turned up positives so game v #Arsenal called off
    ▪️ But tests were faulty though that was not made public at first

    📝
    @Simon_Hughes__

    Liverpool thought they might have an outbreak after the Chelsea game on 2 January. However, all the players tested negative on LFTs at the training ground. But that wasn't good enough for them, so they got a company called BioGrad to PCR test them. That's not the regular PL tester. That is Prenetics, who, apparently, are slower. The BioGrad tests came back positive and, even though the Prenetics tests came back negative, the Arsenal game was called off because a negative test cannot overrule a positive test. It was only when another round of Prenetics tests came back negative that it was obvious that the BioGrad tests were wrong.

    So Klopp was wrong to use the phrase false positives. The tests they got done - and they didn't have to get them done as the LFTs said negative - were faulty.

    I presume the players must have been presenting some symptoms (which they wrongly thought were COVID), otherwise why were they ordering extra tests?

    The Athletic again leading the way, like with the Arsenal betting stuff from yesterday...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
    I get told off if I put the toothbrush-holder in the dishwasher.
    I have to accept that there are dishwasher protocols that will forever be mysterious to me. 'But there weren't any dishes in with it' not an acceptable defence apparently.
    The best thing about dishwashers is that they use so much less water and energy than doing dishes by hand.

    I'm going for the two dishwashers system this year.
    One for car parts ?
    Dishwashers are very good for getting road bike tyres to just the right temperature to make them easy to install without levers if you don't want fuck up your carbon fibre rims. If your rims aren't carbon fibre then have a fucking word with yourself.
    We have a bunch of local cyclists who I call The Fat Men On Fixies. Because they are. At speed (always downhill) the resemblance to a collection of Zeppelins/Whitcomb Bodies is remarkable.

    I think they should concentrate on losing 30 kilos each, before they spend 5 figures on a bike which they can't ride, and causing collisions with pedestrians and other cyclists....
    The Michelin Men, surely?
    True dat.

    Come to think of it, I think that some of them aren't actually riding fixies. Probably got the bluetooth controlled gear system though... hmmmm bluetooth hacking.... {Hot Fuzz} IDEA! {/Hot Fuzz}
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    tlg86 said:

    As suspected, Klopp was talking bollocks about false positives:

    https://twitter.com/TheAthleticUK/status/1484073460108337154

    The Athletic UK
    @TheAthleticUK
    ▪️ #LFC originally returned negative COVID tests
    ▪️ Then ordered extra ones that weren't required
    ▪️ They turned up positives so game v #Arsenal called off
    ▪️ But tests were faulty though that was not made public at first

    📝
    @Simon_Hughes__

    Liverpool thought they might have an outbreak after the Chelsea game on 2 January. However, all the players tested negative on LFTs at the training ground. But that wasn't good enough for them, so they got a company called BioGrad to PCR test them. That's not the regular PL tester. That is Prenetics, who, apparently, are slower. The BioGrad tests came back positive and, even though the Prenetics tests came back negative, the Arsenal game was called off because a negative test cannot overrule a positive test. It was only when another round of Prenetics tests came back negative that it was obvious that the BioGrad tests were wrong.

    So Klopp was wrong to use the phrase false positives. The tests they got done - and they didn't have to get them done as the LFTs said negative - were faulty.

    What is a faulty positive if not a false positive?

    The fact that they were faulty demonstrates it was a false positive, and not as some claimed here at the time false negatives.
    The real question is why they PCR tested.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Is DRoss still nominally a Conservative? Because he seems to be an opposition spokesman these days. What does he and Wragg and Davies and the others have to do to get Ken Clark'd out of the party?

    The problem for Boris is that if he withdraws the whip from too many MPs the bar for removing him is lower and it could lead to the Tories losing a confidence vote at which point the Tories are down to 250 seats anyway.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers. With a hefty gin and tonic from the Galle Face Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    You lucky thing. I loved Sri Lanka - exciting place. My children have never forgotten that one of the first things we saw when leaving the airport was a live elephant in the back of a pick up truck.
    I’ve been here once before but that was “just a series of luxury hotels and exclusive tea plantations” - all very nice but I didn’t really see much of the real country. My assignments require me to be a bit more adventurous this time, tho right now I am clearly
    enjoying the faded British colonial grandeur of the Galle Face. Easing myself in, as it were
    There are a few eco lodges. If you want something really basic and "in it" - and wonderful for it - go to the Polwaththa Eco Lodge near Kandy:

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g304138-d1886710-Reviews-Polwaththa_Eco_Lodges-Kandy_Kandy_District_Central_Province.html

    So which airline provided the Business Class?

    And which champagnes did you get?
  • delete


    Hilarious!

    This was presumably the Anglo-Saxon English of the period? Perhaps she should give us an example?
  • Is DRoss still nominally a Conservative? Because he seems to be an opposition spokesman these days. What does he and Wragg and Davies and the others have to do to get Ken Clark'd out of the party?

    Ken Clarke voted against the Conservative three line whip on a Commons vote termed a confidence vote.

    No different whatsoever to John Major expelling Rupert Allason.

    Although none of Major's "bastards" went as far as Clarke did in voting in the Opposition lobbies in the confidence vote.
    I remember the interview with a bemused and regretful Ken Clarke and Sir Nicholas Soames after they had been defrocked. That whole sequence of Peppa booting long-standing servants of the party out saying they weren't proper Tories really was a precursor to what happened to the party later.
This discussion has been closed.