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Punters give Johnson just a 32% chance of surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,510
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Absolutely, Boris will be almost as stubborn as Trump in doing everything possible to stay in power
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216
    MaxPB said:

    Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

    I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

    It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

    That's standard but threatening to cut funding in their constituencies is blackmail. It shows how hard Boris is clawing at the door frame of Number 10. I think he knows he's done but is having a toddler tantrum because his favourite toy is being taken away from him.
    Touch of the Trumps here from Britain Trump. Will we see the 1922 stormed by a mob of angry obese men from small towns?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Labour’s @AngelaRayner responds:

    “These are grave & shocking accusations of bullying, blackmail & misuse of public money and must be investigated. That areas of our country will be starved of funding because MPs don't fall into line to prop up this failing PM is disgusting”


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1484115289260314626

    JRM could do an independent inquiry which the chief whip could review before publication, save the police from getting involved and all that.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,377

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Is French Labout productivity any more than just their strong holiday culture? Not many jobs which can't be made more productive by just mandating people to work fewer hours and make the best of it.

    Far more impressive is the US where the poor bastards never get a break.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,619

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    For about the 823rd time, May wasn't.

    May had not won a majority like Boris and Boris would therefore not resign like May.

    May resigned, she did not face another VONC less than a year after her first
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Absolutely, Boris will be almost as stubborn as Trump in doing everything possible to stay in power
    And destroy the conservative party
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,471
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Labour’s @AngelaRayner responds:

    “These are grave & shocking accusations of bullying, blackmail & misuse of public money and must be investigated. That areas of our country will be starved of funding because MPs don't fall into line to prop up this failing PM is disgusting”


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1484115289260314626

    The advantage Labour has of being out of power for so long is that they can safely condemn "past" instances of this under their predecessors watch when that is brought up as a defence and make an always-powerful "time for change" claim.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Absolutely, Boris will be almost as stubborn as Trump in doing everything possible to stay in power
    And destroy the conservative party
    It may still be the Conservative party but it has in no sense been conservative for several years now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    maaarsh said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Is French Labout productivity any more than just their strong holiday culture? Not many jobs which can't be made more productive by just mandating people to work fewer hours and make the best of it.

    Far more impressive is the US where the poor bastards never get a break.
    When they are actually working, the French really do work. I have several friends who work for French companies who have noticed the difference with us. On the flip side, when they are at leisure, they don’t work. Decent way to be.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,676

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,377
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    All combined with a smug sense of how well they've dealt with the past, and how altruistic they now are.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: @IpsosMORI finds Johnson’s favourability falls even further to -39 with 3 in 5 Brits now having an unfavourable opinion of him – Of his potential replacements, Rishi Sunak is +7, Sajid Javid is -8 and Liz Truss is at -16 with the public https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354/photo/1

    Of alternative Tory leaders to Boris, Sunak and Javid have higher net favourables than Starmer there with the public, Truss and Patel lower net favourables than Starmer however

    https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1484106260408676354?s=20
    Is that good news when your Party has chosen to keep him on?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    rkrkrk said:

    Boris surviving starting to look like value.

    Any time in 2022 is bet I placed. But I agree that bet is far from certain, for if he survives this media attack then deals strongly with the party rebels he will be in far stronger place to ride out 2022 than before the crisis began ☹️
  • Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    That's how votes work.

    May stayed on when she won hers and was forced out by 92% of the voting public rejecting her rather than a new confidence vote.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,251
    edited January 20

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,515
    maaarsh said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Is French Labout productivity any more than just their strong holiday culture? Not many jobs which can't be made more productive by just mandating people to work fewer hours and make the best of it.

    Far more impressive is the US where the poor bastards never get a break.
    suspect there are far more people working illegally in the US, though not sure how that should affect how to interpret the stats.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    edited January 20
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    So the institute for govt is wrong?
    As even the Institute for Government article makes clear the 1922 can only change the VONC rules in consultation with the party board
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,619
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Labour’s @AngelaRayner responds:

    “These are grave & shocking accusations of bullying, blackmail & misuse of public money and must be investigated. That areas of our country will be starved of funding because MPs don't fall into line to prop up this failing PM is disgusting”


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1484115289260314626

    I first encountered that ploy in a drama-documentary about New Labour back in the day (can't remember the tittle). The whips' threatening a Blair Babe with starving her constituency of investment was the most memorable bit of it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 12,983
    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    For about the 823rd time, May wasn't.

    May had not won a majority like Boris and Boris would therefore not resign like May.

    May resigned, she did not face another VONC less than a year after her first
    And Mrs Thatcher? Sure, the rules were different then but the point is that a narrow win can reveal underlying weakness.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Less productive than the French?
    Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.
    Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.
    Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

    Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

    On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,251
    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    For about the 823rd time, May wasn't.

    May had not won a majority like Boris and Boris would therefore not resign like May.

    May resigned, she did not face another VONC less than a year after her first
    She didn't face another VONC. It didn't mean she was safe.

    I know you have an obsessive compulsion to argue with people, but when you get the facts wrong you just look sillier.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    I am sure some of them like the good old odd spot of flage. But I'm sure Mr Cummings will be along soon to add another turd to the other side of the scales.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,378

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

    I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

    It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

    That's standard but threatening to cut funding in their constituencies is blackmail. It shows how hard Boris is clawing at the door frame of Number 10. I think he knows he's done but is having a toddler tantrum because his favourite toy is being taken away from him.
    Touch of the Trumps here from Britain Trump. Will we see the 1922 stormed by a mob of angry obese men from small towns?
    What happens to Pork Pie Woman is obvious just look at todays Sun. 😕 they are probably planning a similar themed fate for Dishy Rishy.

    Gale will disappear in a big wind.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    Third, like the Lightweight in Scotland

    Excellent suggestion for the name of Ross’s breakaway freedom fighters:

    The Lightweight Party
  • Time for Johnson to dig up dirt on his enemies in the Conservative party. Needs to get allies to attack Sunak.
  • The grammar school girl is as rubbish as Scotland's Sir Andrew Murray.

    Been a bad winter for Brits in Australia.
  • Raducanu and Murray out of the tennis
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,867

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again
    The Wragg story is quite astonishing. It's a long-standing nasty observation that Government money is directed to marginal seats that they hope to hold, which is as he says improper (though not surprising to hardened observers) but accusing Ministers or whips of criminal blackmail seems difficult to reconcile with still taking the Conservative whip.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809

    Time for Johnson to dig up dirt on his enemies in the Conservative party. Needs to get allies to attack Sunak.

    Sunak is too short in the betting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    For about the 823rd time, May wasn't.

    May had not won a majority like Boris and Boris would therefore not resign like May.

    May resigned, she did not face another VONC less than a year after her first
    And Mrs Thatcher? Sure, the rules were different then but the point is that a narrow win can reveal underlying weakness.
    Thatcher won 54% of Tory MPs even in 1990. Under current rules she would not have resigned as there would have been no second ballot v Heseltine. She would have won on round one and been safe, likely until the 1992 general election
  • HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    For about the 823rd time, May wasn't.

    May had not won a majority like Boris and Boris would therefore not resign like May.

    May resigned, she did not face another VONC less than a year after her first
    May resigned because 92% of the voting public, including most Tories, rejected her at the European elections.

    Not you though. You stayed loyal to May even when most Tories and 92% of voters didn't.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 12,983
    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Whoever Kovinic beat in the first round must have had a mare - Radacanu is making a decent fist of her with 1 hand.

    That finger is very tender given the way Raducanu just doubled up in pain while it was being worked on.
    Hard to see her winning, or getting right for the next round if she did, but this has at least confirmed New York was no fluke and she is genuinely much much better than the career tour plodder class.
    Raducanu is out. She has lost 2-1.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    So the institute for govt is wrong?
    As even the Institute for Government article makes clear the 1922 can only change the VONC rules in consultation with the party board and after approval by the National Conservative Convention
    Loving that "even." The point is that your point was if Boris has a majority in the VONC he also has a majority on rule changes. That is baloney because the VONC electorate is not the rule change electorate.

    Practise saying "yes, sorry, you are right" whenever you have a spare 5 minutes. Works wonders.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,251
    Is it possible that Brady has the 54 letters but he's waiting for Gray before announcing it?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,377

    Raducanu and Murray out of the tennis

    Great tournament for her, full confirmation of her potential and very nearly beat a top 100 player with 1 hand.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Third, like the Lightweight in Scotland

    Actually fourth, both your post and Mr R as per some recent polling ...
    I’ve seen Mr Ross’s new Braveheart Party in third place quite a lot, but I cannot recall seeing them in fourth. Who snapped third? Greens? SLDs? Alba? Refuk?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    For about the 823rd time, May wasn't.

    May had not won a majority like Boris and Boris would therefore not resign like May.

    May resigned, she did not face another VONC less than a year after her first
    And Mrs Thatcher? Sure, the rules were different then but the point is that a narrow win can reveal underlying weakness.
    Thatcher won 54% of Tory MPs even in 1990. Under current rules she would not have resigned as there would have been no second ballot v Heseltine. She would have won on round one and been safe, likely until the 1992 general election
    But the voting behaviour would be different under different rules anyway. So you can't conclude that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    Applicant said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
    No Tory MP will VONC the government on current polls
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,620
    Applicant said:

    Is it possible that Brady has the 54 letters but he's waiting for Gray before announcing it?

    No.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Carnyx said:

    Third, like the Lightweight in Scotland

    Actually fourth, both your post and Mr R as per some recent polling ...
    I’ve seen Mr Ross’s new Braveheart Party in third place quite a lot, but I cannot recall seeing them in fourth. Who snapped third? Greens? SLDs? Alba? Refuk?
    Me being too sleepy this morning! Third, of course. Sorry to disappoint.
  • Applicant said:

    Is it possible that Brady has the 54 letters but he's waiting for Gray before announcing it?

    Nope.
  • Considering she's injured and basically playing with one hand, that was some very impressive tennis by Raducanu. Deserves credit there even though she lost.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,471
    edited January 20

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484104316164186115

    Yep. When a coup fails, the leaders and fellow travellers of that coup are in trouble, as the enemy is still in power and will be very cross.

    Poor Pork Pie Woman! Poor Rishi!

    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
    Sounds as if there's an element of panic in ranks of Boris's enemies. Boris might just have played a blinder here. He's certainly changing the narrative - hunting down the plotters, talk of grisly reprisals. For Boris, looking ruthless is far preferable to looking hapless. Nasty Boris might even prove rather seductive to some of his MPs.
    'Grisly reprisals' might just lead to floor-crossing. Again
    The Wragg story is quite astonishing. It's a long-standing nasty observation that Government money is directed to marginal seats that they hope to hold, which is as he says improper (though not surprising to hardened observers) but accusing Ministers or whips of criminal blackmail seems difficult to reconcile with still taking the Conservative whip.
    I think you can make the case that "these bad actors are the ones who should be expelled from the party, not me. I am forced into this invidious position, and if the party doesn't support me, *then* I would be compelled to resign the whip."
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 188
    It looks like a large section of the parliamentary conservatives have decided they have had enough of Boris. I suspect there could be a surprise in terms of the next leader - they may feel it is time for someone serious rather than more culture wars (constant revolution).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    That's how votes work.

    May stayed on when she won hers and was forced out by 92% of the voting public rejecting her rather than a new confidence vote.
    No, because she resigned. Under Tory rules May could have chosen not to resign even after the locals and Europeans and not faced another VONC until December 2019
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Third, like the Lightweight in Scotland

    Actually fourth, both your post and Mr R as per some recent polling ...
    I’ve seen Mr Ross’s new Braveheart Party in third place quite a lot, but I cannot recall seeing them in fourth. Who snapped third? Greens? SLDs? Alba? Refuk?
    Me being too sleepy this morning! Third, of course. Sorry to disappoint.
    Their day will come! 😄
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    That's how votes work.

    May stayed on when she won hers and was forced out by 92% of the voting public rejecting her rather than a new confidence vote.
    No, because she resigned. Under Tory rules May could have chosen not to resign even after the locals and Europeans and not faced another VONC until December 2019
    Don't be ridiculous, she resigned because she had no choice but to resign. The voting public gave her no choice, despite you being in the 8% of voters who backed her.

    Had she chosen not to resign the 1922 could and would have changed the rules.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    The conservative party is combusting in full view of the media and public

    Go Boris, you are toxic

    Don’t go Boris, you are toxic.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,453
    edited January 20

    eek said:

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    · 5m
    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    Hands up anyone who is surprised by this tactic...

    It's surely significant that some MPs are evidently prepared to escalate further in order to tip Boris over the edge. Urging rebels to go to the police is pretty incendiary. It's real warfare now and no going back. Every time Boris looks like he might get a breather something else blows up. Eventually he must run out of cover to hide behind.
    If Brady doesn't reach the letter threshold soon then it's quite possible that the MPs who have publicly called for Johnson to resign will have the whip withdrawn. Boris isn't shy about taking that step.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    Morning all :)

    As an aside, listening to some of the rebellious Red Wall MPs - well, they don't sound like your archetypal rebels. They are sincere in wanting what's best for their constituents and working hard to improve the lot of the people they represent. You could almost call them One Nation Conservatives.

    That's what this is about though, isn't it - the battle for the Conservative soul. The ideologues around Johnson now realise those they helped get elected in 2019 aren't like them at all - instead, they are more like those who Johnson turfed out of the party after becoming leader.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,251
    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
    No Tory MP will VONC the government on current polls
    You're doing it again.

    "Current polls" are completely irrelevant to the hypothetical scenario in question.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    Popcorn stockpile can take it.
  • Finally this government does something train users approve of.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,385

    Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

    I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

    It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

    Yes, and this lot sound pretty ineffective. In the good old days, the whips threatened to expose MPs' visits to ladies in basement flats and gay sex encounters.
    It is a potentially interesting question in law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackmail#Construction
    ...The law considers a "demand with menaces" to always be "unwarranted" (unjustified), unless the perpetrator actually believed that his/her demand had reasonable grounds, and also actually believed that the menace was a proper way to reinforce that demand. These tests relate to the actual belief of the perpetrator, not the belief of an ordinary or reasonable person. Therefore, tests related to what a "reasonable" person might think, and tests of dishonesty, are not often relevant - the matter hinges upon the actual and honest beliefs and knowledge of the perpetrator him/herself. ..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282

    Time for Johnson to dig up dirt on his enemies in the Conservative party. Needs to get allies to attack Sunak.

    Tricky. His most reliable attack dog Big Dom has defected

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
    No Tory MP will VONC the government on current polls
    You're doing it again.

    "Current polls" are completely irrelevant to the hypothetical scenario in question.
    They aren't, Tory MPs are not going to VONC the government and force a general election where many of them lose their seats
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834
    Applicant said:

    Is it possible that Brady has the 54 letters but he's waiting for Gray before announcing it?

    No, he has to disclose the moment it hits 54. BUT he can defer a vote till post Gray.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 25,867

    eek said:

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    · 5m
    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    Hands up anyone who is surprised by this tactic...

    It's surely significant that some MPs are evidently prepared to escalate further in order to tip Boris over the edge. Urging rebels to go to the police is pretty incendiary. It's real warfare now and no going back. Every time Boris looks like he might get a breather something else blows up. Eventually he must run out of cover to hide behind.
    As observers with no influence over the outcome, we can only hope.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
    No Tory MP will VONC the government on current polls
    You're doing it again.

    "Current polls" are completely irrelevant to the hypothetical scenario in question.
    I love how perceived polling performance is more important than moral propriety, competence, professionalism, decency, diligence or plain old common sense.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834
    kinabalu said:

    On topic: The ever-perceptive @AlastairMeeks has I think got this right in a tweet:

    An exclusive preview of the Sue Gray report.

    It will say: there were parties
    The PM attended one or more
    He was, it seems, told what was going on but tells me he didn't appreciate what was said
    There should not have been parties

    MPs can decide now what they want to do next.


    The only thing which I'd add is that it's of course possible that she will have found one or more emails which directly contradict the PM's account of things, and that would make it harder for Tory MPs to find excuses for Boris.

    Hope you're right. That's at the bleaker end for Johnson. What I more fear and expect is a different 3rd line. "The PM says he was not informed and I found no hard evidence proving otherwise".

    Given him surviving is a 50/50 imo, I think that's the value bet at current prices.
    Pesto saying Gray has the email, is good news. Even if not true.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,983
    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    That's how votes work.

    May stayed on when she won hers and was forced out by 92% of the voting public rejecting her rather than a new confidence vote.
    No, because she resigned. Under Tory rules May could have chosen not to resign even after the locals and Europeans and not faced another VONC until December 2019
    Don't be ridiculous, she resigned because she had no choice but to resign. The voting public gave her no choice, despite you being in the 8% of voters who backed her.

    Had she chosen not to resign the 1922 could and would have changed the rules.
    No. The public were not relevant until the December 2019 general election. They voted in European and local elections not a Westminster election.

    Even If you voted for Farage to remove her, had May not have resigned she could have stayed at least until December 2019 under Tory rules.

    It is debatable whether the 1922 and party board would have changed the rules. There were plenty on the party board and 1922 who were still May loyalists
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
    No Tory MP will VONC the government on current polls
    You're doing it again.

    "Current polls" are completely irrelevant to the hypothetical scenario in question.
    I love how perceived polling performance is more important than moral propriety, competence, professionalism, decency, diligence or plain old common sense.
    Not to mention conforming to the law and not trying to kill off Her Maj.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    Echoes of John Major’s Cones Hotline.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809
    Applicant said:

    Is it possible that Brady has the 54 letters but he's waiting for Gray before announcing it?

    Contrary to the answers given already it is possible, if against the rules. Seeing as it is only him who gets to see the letters and they stay anonymous he could even never bother counting them and just say he has 54 when he himself fancies a change of leader. Who would know?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
    Scansion in the sense that Thatcher was talking about - general ones on whole economies - reach the rulers last.

    So sanctions on South Africa were annoying to the Afrikaner elite... down to lethal to the poorest group of black South Africans.

    I found it interesting that many who had campaigned for sanctions on South Africa were so opposed to them on Iraq. They had a similar effect.

    Modern sanctions target the actual regimes, now. The actual people running the countries.

    A relative of mine works in very high end retail - she tells me that there have been instances where very rich ladies from certain countries have had their cards refused in the store..... angry phone calls to the husband/farther reveal that they have been blacklisted. Talk about hitting people where they live...

    The Germans were upset when they were asked to stop selling weapons and training to Russia. *After* the first invasion of Ukraine. https://www.rheinmetall-defence.com/en/rheinmetall_defence/public_relations/news/archiv/archive2016/index~1_1219.php
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,224

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    This is the first Tory policy I've ever fully supported in my life. The constant drip of banal announcements is irritating. Travel on TGV in France and it's blissfully quiet - often they don't even bother telling you the station you're stopping at.
  • eek said:

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    · 5m
    Breaking:

    William Wragg accuses government of blackmail & intimidation over treatment of Tory rebels

    He urges rebels to go to the police

    He accuses Govt of breaching ministerial code by threatening to withdraw investments in constituencies

    Hands up anyone who is surprised by this tactic...

    It's surely significant that some MPs are evidently prepared to escalate further in order to tip Boris over the edge. Urging rebels to go to the police is pretty incendiary. It's real warfare now and no going back. Every time Boris looks like he might get a breather something else blows up. Eventually he must run out of cover to hide behind.
    If Brady doesn't reach the letter threshold soon then it's quite possible that the MPs who have publicly called for Johnson to resign will have the whip withdrawn. Boris isn't shy about taking that step.
    On what grounds?

    Withdrawing a whip for voting against a three line whip on a confidence motion is something all leaders would do.

    Boris making his Brexit vote a confidence motion then expelling Grieve etc who voted against was no different to what Major did to get Maastricht through.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,010
    edited January 20
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mrs DA just asked if I had put 'car stuff' in the oven while sniffing the air suspiciously. I had - Porsche 924 front hubs for bearing installation. I said that I took the allegations very seriously but the appropriate thing to was to let Sue Gray finish the investigation before commenting. She went fucking mad. IT DOESN'T WORK!

    Happy days.
    Before my partner moved in I had a 748 in the living room and a 900ss engine in its frame in a spare bedroom. Can't even clean an engine cover in the dishwasher now.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chairman Estonia Foreign Affairs Committee

    President Macron, why? Western unity is the most important asset we have against Russian aggression. - Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

    https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1483890234236575753?s=21

    France and Germany competing to see who can kiss Putin’s arse the most, just as he rollls the tanks towards Kiev. I’m not sure most of the Eastern European countries are too happy with that.
    Those wanting peace, if this come to war, will get

    - A split in NATO.
    - The Eastern Europeans will either cuddle up to Moscow or try and get an alliance of those who will back them.
    - Everyone will assume Ukraine is not the "last territorial demand". So those not wanting to be ruled by Moscow will arm themselves. And how
    - Ukraine was promised that if they gave up nuclear weapons, they would be guaranteed their territorial integrity by Russia, NATO - everyone.
    - So the message will go out. Very loud and very clear. Get nuclear weapons. Keep them. Worldwide.
    - Ukraine has multiple nuclear reactors and a lot of burned up fuel. Yes, civil "grade" plutonium. But that can be processed, fairly simply, if it is old enough. That would make a nice present for someone.

    So if Russia takes some more chunks out of Ukraine, we are looking at a world where nuclear proliferation switches into high gear. Where NATO/EU splits. Where a chunk of Eastern Europe gears up ready for the next war. And maybe start thinking that they should get themselves some really, really Big Sticks.

    Oh, and a whole bunch of legless teenagers begging on the streets of St Petersburg. Again.
    Another good article on the geopolitics here:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-crisis-highlights-superpowers-quarrel-over-spheres-of-influence

    France and Germany need to think hard about the consequences of what is essentially appeasement - a term which is bandied about far too often, but which fits here.
    Except that in this case, Ukraine will fight regardless - and their stance makes war more, not less likely, I think.
    I read that this morning, it's a really good and fairly neutral take on the situation. The French proposal for an EU-Russia pact is actually appeasement. It's a proposal to let the Russians do what they want and suffer no consequences from Europe.

    The EU is very quickly proving that it is not to be trusted without the UK in it. Something a lot of us said would happen and was denied by the more ardent EUphiles who have idealised the EU as some bastion of liberal democracy when the reality is very different.
    Looks like a disastrous strategic mistake for us to have lost our influence from within the EU then.
    Alternatively it's shown the rest of the world exactly the kind of shit we had to deal with time and again when it came to putting up sanctions on markets to which Germany had significant exports. The view in the UK has always understood that Germany doesn't give a fuck about anyone else's freedoms as long as they can sell dishwashers but the rest of the world didn't realise this until now. What they project to the world as being peaceful is actually appeasement. I think it's a net good that we've got that out in the open.
    Maybe the Germans agree with Margaret Thatcher that sanctions don't work and should never be used however odious the regime. Even an apartheid one?
    Scansion in the sense that Thatcher was talking about - general ones on whole economies - reach the rulers last.

    So sanctions on South Africa were annoying to the Afrikaner elite... down to lethal to the poorest group of black South Africans.

    I found it interesting that many who had campaigned for sanctions on South Africa were so opposed to them on Iraq. They had a similar effect.

    Modern sanctions target the actual regimes, now. The actual people running the countries.

    A relative of mine works in very high end retail - she tells me that there have been instances where very rich ladies from certain countries have had their cards refused in the store..... angry phone calls to the husband/farther reveal that they have been blacklisted. Talk about hitting people where they live...

    The Germans were upset when they were asked to stop selling weapons and training to Russia. *After* the first invasion of Ukraine. https://www.rheinmetall-defence.com/en/rheinmetall_defence/public_relations/news/archiv/archive2016/index~1_1219.php
    Still folk defending Thatcher’s disgraceful SA policy. Some parties never learn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,068
    edited January 20
    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    I already know what train I'm on what the stops are.

    Usually I'm sat in first class so I have at seat dining, I don't need them repeatedly telling the plebs that that there's trolley with drinks and light refreshments on board and/or there's a cafe/restaurant in coach D.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    There’s a line from Brady Old Lady on the front of this morning’s Times saying that unless he can’t open his office door because of letters, there won’t be a leadership challenge any time soon.

    So he’s bending the rules? Tut tut.

    Boris is going nowhere.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,160
    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,378
    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
    No Tory MP will VONC the government on current polls
    You're doing it again.

    "Current polls" are completely irrelevant to the hypothetical scenario in question.
    There is a huge difference in VOC against Johnson, and VONC in the government. That should be obvious. Politics is hugely tribal, one is tribal within the Tory party, the other against the 'enemy'.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,842
    tlg86 said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Less productive than the French?
    Been the case since the 1960s.

    These surveys always make me think about what they're measuring and how. Something about apples and pears springs to mind.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,378

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 12,983

    Applicant said:

    Is it possible that Brady has the 54 letters but he's waiting for Gray before announcing it?

    Contrary to the answers given already it is possible, if against the rules. Seeing as it is only him who gets to see the letters and they stay anonymous he could even never bother counting them and just say he has 54 when he himself fancies a change of leader. Who would know?
    Vague memories of the May years but isn't part of the problem that when the number of letters approaches the threshold, Brady asks all the senders if they still mean it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,676
    Carrie won't like it. All the more reason for her husband to stay in power.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,014

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In new @ONS stats published today, we show that the UK is about mid-pack in the G7 in terms of labour #productivity.

    UK is more productive than Japan and Canada, similar to (probably more than) Italy, probably less than Germany, and definitely less than France and the US.


    https://twitter.com/joshmartin_ons/status/1484097380265996288?s=21

    Less productive than the French?
    Ha ha, it is one of those statistics that drives English people mad, but the French are incredibly productive. They achieve this in part by less productive people not working, however.
    Yes, that's the thing with productivity statistics. Cut the least productive (note: not necessarily least hard-working), and your productivity goes up.
    Because of the cost of employment in France - direct and indirect (once you have an employee, getting rid of them is... complex) - *and* favourable taxation, investment in automation and productivity enhancing machinery is high.

    Hence if you go to a French domestic building site, almost the first thing they put up is a mini-crane.

    On the UK equivalent building site you see ridiculous things done by hand. Just add more Polish blokes....
    There’s also huge unemployment in France, relative to the UK, which skews the productivity stats even further in their favour.

    Yes, the way the UK improves productivity is to invest in capital rather than throwing cheap labour at the problem. Cranes on building sites, and more automation of minimum-wage jobs.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It might be better for Boris to have a VONC now than in avoid it and face one in May when the Tories might see heavy losses on current polls, especially in London.

    If a VONC is held now and he wins it he is safe for a year.

    Portillo on GB news now says he thinks Boris is safer than yesterday. Davis looked pompous and Wakeford defecting has brought Tory unity

    That 'year' is set in instant whip. The 1922 can change the rules, and will if they think it needed, as said several times by others on PB.
    If Boris wins a VONC he also likely has a majority on the 1922
    The 1922 Committee arranges the rules around votes of no confidence and the first stage of a Conservative leadership contest. These rules are not published in the public domain. They can also be changed at any time by the 1922’s Executive Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, which consists of representatives from each section – voluntary, political and professional – of the party. For example, this means that the rule stating a new vote of no confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months could be removed with little to no notice.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

    I doubt he has a maj on the executive committee
    The 1922 set the rules on a leadership ballot.

    The rules on a VONC were set up under Hague though and can only be changed with the support of the party board as well as the 1922. If he wins a VONC, even narrowly, Boris almost certainly has a majority still on the 1922 too
    I suspect that, unlike other leaders, if Johnson wins a VOC narrowly he would stay on even if just by one vote.
    Thereby precipitating the mother of all crises.
    And probably losing a Commons VONC, which given the notional majority would be absolutely spectacular.
    No Tory MP will VONC the government on current polls
    You're doing it again.

    "Current polls" are completely irrelevant to the hypothetical scenario in question.
    I love how perceived polling performance is more important than moral propriety, competence, professionalism, decency, diligence or plain old common sense.
    Not to mention conforming to the law and not trying to kill off Her Maj.
    Ah yes. Their criminal and regicidal tendencies. My list was by no mean exhaustive, but you’re right: those were important omissions.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,251
    .
    Nigelb said:

    Whips threatening to leak damaging stories about MPs in order to get their votes in parliament?

    I am shocked. Shocked to the core.

    It's only been standard procedure for about 300 years.

    Yes, and this lot sound pretty ineffective. In the good old days, the whips threatened to expose MPs' visits to ladies in basement flats and gay sex encounters.
    It is a potentially interesting question in law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackmail#Construction
    ...The law considers a "demand with menaces" to always be "unwarranted" (unjustified), unless the perpetrator actually believed that his/her demand had reasonable grounds, and also actually believed that the menace was a proper way to reinforce that demand. These tests relate to the actual belief of the perpetrator, not the belief of an ordinary or reasonable person. Therefore, tests related to what a "reasonable" person might think, and tests of dishonesty, are not often relevant - the matter hinges upon the actual and honest beliefs and knowledge of the perpetrator him/herself. ..
    Which could lead to a politician being charged on such grounds using as a defence "I thought it was the done thing as when I was a new MP, whip X treatened me with Y". Tasty.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,530

    We need to abolition the term 'blackmail' as it is clearly racist and I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making.'

    "Mail of colour"? :wink:

    It's odd, of course, how much of our language counts 'black' as bad, but I assume the origins are more in day and night than in ethnicity. Being 'blackballed' is one of my favourites.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    edited January 20

    The master has predicterated



    Yes, the problem with Stalinism is that it was never tried properly.
    Thats not right. Stalinism was tried extensively, as the millions dead in USSR territories will attest. You mean communism...
    Thank you for telling me what I mean. What a thicko I am. Jolly lucky I’ve got a benevolent paternalist to keep me on the straight and narrow.
    Well what do you mean that Stalinism was never tried properly? What did he not get to do? Seriously?
    Well what does Matt Goodwin mean that Cummings-Johnsonianism was never tried properly? What did they not get to do? Seriously?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,251
    Carnyx said:

    Finally this government does something train users approve of.


    What's the problem? Don't people want to know that their train is arriving at Manc Piccadilly rather than Bristle Parkway?
    That's not a repetitive and unneccessary announcement. The amount of recorded crap they bombard you with between stations is nuts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    It's a sad, but also richly entertaining, day when a senior Tory backbencher encourages his colleagues to go to the Metropolitan Police and seek a criminal charge of blackmail against government ministers.

    I am not entertained. I'm extremely worried. This has the risk of turning into a generation-level crisis.
    I think I'm just about done with the Conservatives for life now. I don't see a way back for me now. Previously I thought it was just a case of we needed to get Boris and his small group toxic idiots out, but it's much more profound now.
    The idea that you would ever vote Conservative ever is ludicrous anyway
This discussion has been closed.