Lords a-leaping – politicalbetting.com

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

Nadine, raging against the dying of the light...

Exclusive:

Nadine Dorries hits out at 'disloyal' plotters

'The people who are doing this are being disloyal to PM, the party, their constituents and to the wider country

'The only reason their constituents voted for them is because Boris Johnson was standing as PM' https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483566263435677700/photo/1

'Removing Boris Johnson will give us one thing: Keir Starmer as Prime Minister' says Nadine

Why don't you just resign as a conservative as you are so full of negatively the party would not miss you and Dorries is a disaster and needs sending to the back benches

And I can take your place as I rejoin as Boris leaves

I don't hate the Tory leader and PM unlike you.

I do not hate Boris but then I cannot support his behaviour over Paterson, wallpapergate and partygate, and the trashing of the conservative brand

You seem to be happy to predict years in opposition for the party so why not resign as you can hardly promote the party

I am always loyal to the party, even in 2001 when you were happily voting Labour

You voted for Plaid and you simply could not canvass for the party with a new leader in view of your statements

I voted for every Tory on the ballot paper even then, you did not vote for the Tory candidate in 2001

On topic: Actually I think there is, or was until the Lords removed it, quite a lot of sensible stuff in the bill. Items 1, 2, 3 and 6 of the proposals listed in Ms Cyclefree's bullet points are very reasonable The last one is no different to existing and long-standing powers on football hooligans, is it? And stopping arrogant nutjobs disrupting roads, transport and construction because they don't like decisions taken in a democracy is well overdue; what they do is not protest, it is intimidation and wrecking.

Unfortunately the government has screwed up the mechanics of the legislation. Quite an achievement when they've got a majority of 80.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Called it.

EXC As many as 20 Tory MPs from the 2019 intake are planning to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson tomorrow.

The number could breach the 54 letters required for a confidence vote. One 2019 Tory MP told me it could be the PM’s “D-Day”, adding: “His time has gone.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1483544039555321864

Whatever. If they are so keen to do it, why don’t they do it now?

StuartDickson said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Called it.

EXC As many as 20 Tory MPs from the 2019 intake are planning to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson tomorrow.

The number could breach the 54 letters required for a confidence vote. One 2019 Tory MP told me it could be the PM’s “D-Day”, adding: “His time has gone.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1483544039555321864

Whatever. If they are so keen to do it, why don’t they do it now?

Tad impatient. May looming bit too fast is it?

Eh?

Carnyx said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Oh, I did read it all right, never fear. Been a little bit overtaken by events (i.e. Ms Patel might get the heave-ho) but, as you say all too well, it remains a serious issue.

Even if she leaves, the Bill passes into law.

FrancisUrquhart said:

End of Plan B to be announced tomorrow, taking effect a week later. PM will hold cabinet meeting in the morning, then Commons statement after PMQs. Currently unclear whether he'll do a press conference.

Interesting prediction. Unless you've heard/seen information about it?

The issue isn't protest. Or at least it shouldn't be. The issue ought to be disruption. We can all be high-minded about rights to free expression and assembly but extinction rebellion and insulate Britain DID cause major disruption i.e harm. People have a right to be angry about that. The Supreme Court might have exploded a legal grenade with its verdict that a certain level of disruption had to be tolerated in a free society. Well what does that mean exactly?

Many liberty lovers would have applauded that but what if the consequence is the government introducing more draconian laws as a counter measure? Activists judges might actually be their own worst enemy in this. Of course I don't have any confidence in Patel who seems like a minister playing to the gallery in search of favourable tabloid headlines. But one has to understand why she has found such fertile territory.

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Called it.

EXC As many as 20 Tory MPs from the 2019 intake are planning to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson tomorrow.

The number could breach the 54 letters required for a confidence vote. One 2019 Tory MP told me it could be the PM’s “D-Day”, adding: “His time has gone.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1483544039555321864

Whatever. If they are so keen to do it, why don’t they do it now?

StuartDickson said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Called it.

EXC As many as 20 Tory MPs from the 2019 intake are planning to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson tomorrow.

The number could breach the 54 letters required for a confidence vote. One 2019 Tory MP told me it could be the PM’s “D-Day”, adding: “His time has gone.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1483544039555321864

Whatever. If they are so keen to do it, why don’t they do it now?

Tad impatient. May looming bit too fast is it?

Eh?

Front of times says masks to stay

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Is George Osborne wondering what might have been, had he not chucked it all in?

I suspect Mr 10 jobs is looking at his bank balance and laughing

Really?

Maybe it's me but I'd settle for £1m + being PM rather than £100m and no power.

It looks to me that being PM isn't as much fun as it sounds. Our would be "World King" is only the latest in a long line to be trashed by the job.

Who was the last PM to leave with head held high and dignity intact?
May- broken by the job
Cameron- broken by the referendum
Brown- broken by the job
Blair- left sort of on his own terms, but the job sent him mad
Major- broken and defeated
Thatcher- went mad, then her party deposed her
Callaghan was before my time; was his defeat dignified?
If not, we're back to Wilson.

Maybe the job of PM really is undoable, and destroys all who crave it.

Group of 109 MPs in the Carlton Club with Will Wragg holding court. Obviously plotting.
https://twitter.com/eyespymp/status/1483552752106156036

Bizarre thing is @NadineDorries is upstairs https://twitter.com/William_Wragg/status/1483555049204854789

An MP tells me Boris Johnson is at the Carlton Club … where 2019 MPs are also congregating.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1483576764928565252

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Is George Osborne wondering what might have been, had he not chucked it all in?

I suspect Mr 10 jobs is looking at his bank balance and laughing

Really?

Maybe it's me but I'd settle for £1m + being PM rather than £100m and no power.

It looks to me that being PM isn't as much fun as it sounds. Our would be "World King" is only the latest in a long line to be trashed by the job.

Who was the last PM to leave with head held high and dignity intact?
May- broken by the job
Cameron- broken by the referendum
Brown- broken by the job
Blair- left sort of on his own terms, but the job sent him mad
Major- broken and defeated
Thatcher- went mad, then her party deposed her
Callaghan was before my time; was his defeat dignified?
If not, we're back to Wilson.

Maybe the job of PM really is undoable, and destroys all who crave it.

Wilson, Macmillan and Churchill and arguably Blair left on their own terms, not forced out by their party or after losing a general election.

However as we are not a dictatorship ultimately it is to be expected most of our PMs are either forced out by the voters or their own parties in the end.

The trick is to step down before your shelf life has expired. Had Thatcher stepped down in 1989 after 10 years in power, she would have left office in triumph.

Blair managed to time his leaving for 2007 ie a year before the GFC which toppled Brown after the Brownites put pressure on him to go

Scott_xP said:

Group of 109 MPs in the Carlton Club with Will Wragg holding court. Obviously plotting.
https://twitter.com/eyespymp/status/1483552752106156036

Bizarre thing is @NadineDorries is upstairs https://twitter.com/William_Wragg/status/1483555049204854789

An MP tells me Boris Johnson is at the Carlton Club … where 2019 MPs are also congregating.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1483576764928565252

I don't think the second item can be true. Nadine Dorries hasn't got anything upstairs.

Cracking header which will get less than the attention it deserves.

...It is easy to look at some individual protest or protester one doesn’t like or agree with and say, of course, they should be stopped...
That was pretty well the entirety of the government's argument in the Lords. Intellectually and morally bankrupt.

I see that Bernard Hopeless Hough has resurfaced in the Lords, and unsurprisingly spoke in favour of the measures.
Why is it that failed leaders of the Met get enobled ?

https://twitter.com/STVKathryn/status/1483562077478342656?t=ujHW2JBubd3KPk4r0cdNIQ&s=19

Cyclefree said:

FrankBooth said:

The issue isn't protest. Or at least it shouldn't be. The issue ought to be disruption. We can all be high-minded about rights to free expression and assembly but extinction rebellion and insulate Britain DID cause major disruption i.e harm. People have a right to be angry about that. The Supreme Court might have exploded a legal grenade with its verdict that a certain level of disruption had to be tolerated in a free society. Well what does that mean exactly?

Many liberty lovers would have applauded that but what if the consequence is the government introducing more draconian laws as a counter measure? Activists judges might actually be their own worst enemy in this. Of course I don't have any confidence in Patel who seems like a minister playing to the gallery in search of favourable tabloid headlines. But one has to understand why she has found such fertile territory.

We already have plenty of laws to deal with disruption and public order offences.

Really? So why is this disruption continuing with no legal redress?

It’s still not clear about the masks.

The Times headline says they will remain but the story itself says it’s not decided whether this will be guidance or law.

Of course, if they want to maintain the law, they’ll need a new bill. Which means it will probably be guidance, which will be largely ignored in big cities, I should guess.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

FrankBooth said:

The issue isn't protest. Or at least it shouldn't be. The issue ought to be disruption. We can all be high-minded about rights to free expression and assembly but extinction rebellion and insulate Britain DID cause major disruption i.e harm. People have a right to be angry about that. The Supreme Court might have exploded a legal grenade with its verdict that a certain level of disruption had to be tolerated in a free society. Well what does that mean exactly?

Many liberty lovers would have applauded that but what if the consequence is the government introducing more draconian laws as a counter measure? Activists judges might actually be their own worst enemy in this. Of course I don't have any confidence in Patel who seems like a minister playing to the gallery in search of favourable tabloid headlines. But one has to understand why she has found such fertile territory.

We already have plenty of laws to deal with disruption and public order offences.

Really? So why is this disruption continuing with no legal redress?

Because disruption is part and parcel with a free democratic process?

RandallFlagg said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Is George Osborne wondering what might have been, had he not chucked it all in?

I suspect Mr 10 jobs is looking at his bank balance and laughing

Really?

Maybe it's me but I'd settle for £1m + being PM rather than £100m and no power.

It looks to me that being PM isn't as much fun as it sounds. Our would be "World King" is only the latest in a long line to be trashed by the job.

Who was the last PM to leave with head held high and dignity intact?
May- broken by the job
Cameron- broken by the referendum
Brown- broken by the job
Blair- left sort of on his own terms, but the job sent him mad
Major- broken and defeated
Thatcher- went mad, then her party deposed her
Callaghan was before my time; was his defeat dignified?
If not, we're back to Wilson.

Maybe the job of PM really is undoable, and destroys all who crave it.

May and Cameron were arguably broken by Boris Johnson's ambition.

Boris has been the cuckoo in the Tory nest since at least 2015. Doing to the party and country what he has been doing to various husbands (and wives!) for several decades.

Astonishingly he is still supported by @HYUFD, @DavidL, @Sandpit and others.

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

Daveyboy1961 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

FrankBooth said:

The issue isn't protest. Or at least it shouldn't be. The issue ought to be disruption. We can all be high-minded about rights to free expression and assembly but extinction rebellion and insulate Britain DID cause major disruption i.e harm. People have a right to be angry about that. The Supreme Court might have exploded a legal grenade with its verdict that a certain level of disruption had to be tolerated in a free society. Well what does that mean exactly?

Many liberty lovers would have applauded that but what if the consequence is the government introducing more draconian laws as a counter measure? Activists judges might actually be their own worst enemy in this. Of course I don't have any confidence in Patel who seems like a minister playing to the gallery in search of favourable tabloid headlines. But one has to understand why she has found such fertile territory.

We already have plenty of laws to deal with disruption and public order offences.

Really? So why is this disruption continuing with no legal redress?

Because disruption is part and parcel with a free democratic process?

There is a reasonable debate to be had about the level of disruption to be tolerated as a result of protest in a democratic society.

This bill attempted to give an unacceptable level of discretion to police and Home Secretary to make those decisions without any real check.

Anabobazina said:

It’s still not clear about the masks.

The Times headline says they will remain but the story itself says it’s not decided whether this will be guidance or law.

Of course, if they want to maintain the law, they’ll need a new bill. Which means it will probably be guidance, which will be largely ignored in big cities, I should guess.

Hope so.
The U.K. is really leading the way for once.

New York is still mid-wave and covid-hysterical, including various measures which seem to be *against* scientific best practice.

The mad decision to restrict the Euston road to a single lane at various points has caused more disruption than any XR protests.

Pretty much impossible to drive east/west through London now.

Cyclefree said:

FrankBooth said:

The issue isn't protest. Or at least it shouldn't be. The issue ought to be disruption. We can all be high-minded about rights to free expression and assembly but extinction rebellion and insulate Britain DID cause major disruption i.e harm. People have a right to be angry about that. The Supreme Court might have exploded a legal grenade with its verdict that a certain level of disruption had to be tolerated in a free society. Well what does that mean exactly?

Many liberty lovers would have applauded that but what if the consequence is the government introducing more draconian laws as a counter measure? Activists judges might actually be their own worst enemy in this. Of course I don't have any confidence in Patel who seems like a minister playing to the gallery in search of favourable tabloid headlines. But one has to understand why she has found such fertile territory.

We already have plenty of laws to deal with disruption and public order offences.

So why all this bother with injunctions?

And what is the explanation for granting them? I find it odd that, as I understand it, the injunction was against the group of climate activists. So what's to stop them changing their name as an organisation? Perhaps I just don't understand the law.

LostPassword said:

Fingers crossed that this Bill will be lost in the transition to a new PM.

If I was Lynton Crosby I would certainly regard it as an unnecessary barnacle.

It’s very existence demonstrates there is a complete incoherence to “Boris-ism”.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Germany reports 93,912 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

Do you ever tire of these posts? Why not hunt out some more unusual countries, like Guatemala or Uzbekistan.

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

If there is a confidence vote I'd expect Johnson to win in by a similar sort of margin as the Theresa May vote in December 2018 which was 200-117 against a leadership election. Why? I still think most Sunak and Truss supporters don't want to take over just yet: they'd prefer the second half of the year.

If he wins a VONC, Johnson is safe for a year. Sunak's window will have closed, economic events will overtake him.

It suits me, by the way, if he stays.

People keep saying this, but it's not at all a guarantee of safety for a year.

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Is George Osborne wondering what might have been, had he not chucked it all in?

I suspect Mr 10 jobs is looking at his bank balance and laughing

Really?

Maybe it's me but I'd settle for £1m + being PM rather than £100m and no power.

It looks to me that being PM isn't as much fun as it sounds. Our would be "World King" is only the latest in a long line to be trashed by the job.

Who was the last PM to leave with head held high and dignity intact?
May- broken by the job
Cameron- broken by the referendum
Brown- broken by the job
Blair- left sort of on his own terms, but the job sent him mad
Major- broken and defeated
Thatcher- went mad, then her party deposed her
Callaghan was before my time; was his defeat dignified?
If not, we're back to Wilson.

Maybe the job of PM really is undoable, and destroys all who crave it.

Think Callaghan was reasonably dignified. He remained well liked. As did Major to be fair. And Blair stepped down. I don't think it's as bleak as you paint it.

One thing that I deplore is leaders stepping down the day after a GE defeat. It takes time for a party to process what went wrong, and rushing to a new leader often results in a poor choice. In anything other than a hung parliament, with risk of further election, the leader should stay on for a year.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Actually I think there is, or was until the Lords removed it, quite a lot of sensible stuff in the bill. Items 1, 2, 3 and 6 of the proposals listed in Ms Cyclefree's bullet points are very reasonable The last one is no different to existing and long-standing powers on football hooligans, is it? And stopping arrogant nutjobs disrupting roads, transport and construction because they don't like decisions taken in a democracy is well overdue; what they do is not protest, it is intimidation and wrecking.

Unfortunately the government has screwed up the mechanics of the legislation. Quite an achievement when they've got a majority of 80.

Item 6 is an appalling piece of legislation. You really do need to look at the clause in detail and the explanation of what it means to understand that. Fortunately it has gone. For now.

But no party proposing this as legislation is fit to be in government.

And they did not screw up the mechanics. They deliberately introduced amendments at the last minute to avoid scrutiny.

If they were trying to avoid scrutiny they didn't succeed. Or at least, maybe they did, but not in the way they intended, which is a pity.

I note you ignored my point about football hooligans, or the wider point about the need for legislation to stop a small number of people wrecking things, causing massive expense to the taxpayer and to private companies and citizens, stopping traffic, adding to pollution, and in some cases preventing ambulances taking ill people to hospital. Are you really cool with the law being totally impotent to deal with all of that?

It isn't.

Mexicanpete said:

RobD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

If there is a confidence vote I'd expect Johnson to win in by a similar sort of margin as the Theresa May vote in December 2018 which was 200-117 against a leadership election. Why? I still think most Sunak and Truss supporters don't want to take over just yet: they'd prefer the second half of the year.

If he wins a VONC, Johnson is safe for a year. Sunak's window will have closed, economic events will overtake him.

It suits me, by the way, if he stays.

People keep saying this, but it's not at all a guarantee of safety for a year.

Forgive me for my confusion, I do not understand the mechanics of the Conservative Party, but don't the rules preclude a VONC within a year?

The rules can be changed, of course. And May survived a VONC in December 2018. I assume she was still PM in December 2019?

Mexicanpete said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

I can't agree more. I remember seeing pictures of the police in the miners strike waving wads of cash in the faces of the picket line, their overtime money.

Never help the police with their enquiries. Remember, the only reason they ask you questions is because they don't have the evidence to charge until you give it to them.

Mexicanpete said:

RobD said:

Mexicanpete said:

RobD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

If there is a confidence vote I'd expect Johnson to win in by a similar sort of margin as the Theresa May vote in December 2018 which was 200-117 against a leadership election. Why? I still think most Sunak and Truss supporters don't want to take over just yet: they'd prefer the second half of the year.

If he wins a VONC, Johnson is safe for a year. Sunak's window will have closed, economic events will overtake him.

It suits me, by the way, if he stays.

People keep saying this, but it's not at all a guarantee of safety for a year.

Forgive me for my confusion, I do not understand the mechanics of the Conservative Party, but don't the rules preclude a VONC within a year?

The rules can be changed, of course. And May survived a VONC in December 2018. I assume she was still PM in December 2019?

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

RobD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

If there is a confidence vote I'd expect Johnson to win in by a similar sort of margin as the Theresa May vote in December 2018 which was 200-117 against a leadership election. Why? I still think most Sunak and Truss supporters don't want to take over just yet: they'd prefer the second half of the year.

If he wins a VONC, Johnson is safe for a year. Sunak's window will have closed, economic events will overtake him.

It suits me, by the way, if he stays.

People keep saying this, but it's not at all a guarantee of safety for a year.

Forgive me for my confusion, I do not understand the mechanics of the Conservative Party, but don't the rules preclude a VONC within a year?

Though if they want to do so the 1922 could change the rules.

It is a very fluid organisation this Conservative Party.

And thanks RobD. for taking the p*** out of me by suggesting Mrs May was PM in December 2019. Much appreciated.

Not taking the piss out of anyone. Just demonstrating with a recent example that surviving a VONC is not a guarantee of safety for a year as you were suggesting.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

FrankBooth said:

The issue isn't protest. Or at least it shouldn't be. The issue ought to be disruption. We can all be high-minded about rights to free expression and assembly but extinction rebellion and insulate Britain DID cause major disruption i.e harm. People have a right to be angry about that. The Supreme Court might have exploded a legal grenade with its verdict that a certain level of disruption had to be tolerated in a free society. Well what does that mean exactly?

Many liberty lovers would have applauded that but what if the consequence is the government introducing more draconian laws as a counter measure? Activists judges might actually be their own worst enemy in this. Of course I don't have any confidence in Patel who seems like a minister playing to the gallery in search of favourable tabloid headlines. But one has to understand why she has found such fertile territory.

We already have plenty of laws to deal with disruption and public order offences.

Really? So why is this disruption continuing with no legal redress?

Because those damn juries keep acquitting people?

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

RobD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

If there is a confidence vote I'd expect Johnson to win in by a similar sort of margin as the Theresa May vote in December 2018 which was 200-117 against a leadership election. Why? I still think most Sunak and Truss supporters don't want to take over just yet: they'd prefer the second half of the year.

If he wins a VONC, Johnson is safe for a year. Sunak's window will have closed, economic events will overtake him.

It suits me, by the way, if he stays.

People keep saying this, but it's not at all a guarantee of safety for a year.

Forgive me for my confusion, I do not understand the mechanics of the Conservative Party, but don't the rules preclude a VONC within a year?

Though if they want to do so the 1922 could change the rules.

If Boris survives a VONC, he likely also has a majority of his suporters on the 1922 too

Gardenwalker said:

LostPassword said:

Fingers crossed that this Bill will be lost in the transition to a new PM.

If I was Lynton Crosby I would certainly regard it as an unnecessary barnacle.

It’s very existence demonstrates there is a complete incoherence to “Boris-ism”.

A barnacle on the boat.

Daveyboy1961 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

I can't agree more. I remember seeing pictures of the police in the miners strike waving wads of cash in the faces of the picket line, their overtime money.

Never help the police with their enquiries. Remember, the only reason they ask you questions is because they don't have the evidence to charge until you give it to them.

Never ever talk to the police without a lawyer present.

Never ever accept a caution.

LostPassword said:

Fingers crossed that this Bill will be lost in the transition to a new PM.

Along with its architect.

vanilla balls-up

vanilla balls-up

Jonathan said:

Throughout all of this soap opera it is sobering to remember that Boris Johnson is actually Prime Minister, and that a man who claims he can’t spot a party in his own back yard actually controls this country’s nuclear deterrent.

He's probably written two letters of last resort for each sub though: one pro- and one anti-launch.

Cyclefree said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

I can't agree more. I remember seeing pictures of the police in the miners strike waving wads of cash in the faces of the picket line, their overtime money.

Never help the police with their enquiries. Remember, the only reason they ask you questions is because they don't have the evidence to charge until you give it to them.

Never ever accept a caution.

Why not?

Stark_Dawning said:

Cyclefree said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

I can't agree more. I remember seeing pictures of the police in the miners strike waving wads of cash in the faces of the picket line, their overtime money.

Never help the police with their enquiries. Remember, the only reason they ask you questions is because they don't have the evidence to charge until you give it to them.

Never ever talk to the police without a lawyer present.

Never ever accept a caution.

Cyclefree said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

I can't agree more. I remember seeing pictures of the police in the miners strike waving wads of cash in the faces of the picket line, their overtime money.

Never help the police with their enquiries. Remember, the only reason they ask you questions is because they don't have the evidence to charge until you give it to them.

Never ever accept a caution.

Why not?

They show up on an enhanced DBS check despite no evidence of guilt of any crime. Police cautions are a way for the police to label people as "wrong 'uns" officially. It's better to go to court and clear your name than accept a police caution.

Cyclefree said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

I can't agree more. I remember seeing pictures of the police in the miners strike waving wads of cash in the faces of the picket line, their overtime money.

Never help the police with their enquiries. Remember, the only reason they ask you questions is because they don't have the evidence to charge until you give it to them.

Never ever talk to the police without a lawyer present.

Never ever accept a caution.

My mother-in-law had a neighbour who was bat***t crazy and who kept writing letters to people accusing them of slighting her over weird stuff. One day two police officers turned up and told my incredulous mother-in-law that she had been reported for attempting to run over her neighbour's dogs and that they intended to caution her. She refused to accept a caution on the basis that the only evidence supplied was by the neighbour with no corroboration. She suggested that the Police were welcome to investigate further, and recommended that they contact a well known local judge who had also been on the receiving end of the neighbour who would provide information regarding the reliability (or lack of) of the her character. They left.

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Is George Osborne wondering what might have been, had he not chucked it all in?

I suspect Mr 10 jobs is looking at his bank balance and laughing

Really?

Maybe it's me but I'd settle for £1m + being PM rather than £100m and no power.

It looks to me that being PM isn't as much fun as it sounds. Our would be "World King" is only the latest in a long line to be trashed by the job.

Who was the last PM to leave with head held high and dignity intact?
May- broken by the job
Cameron- broken by the referendum
Brown- broken by the job
Blair- left sort of on his own terms, but the job sent him mad
Major- broken and defeated
Thatcher- went mad, then her party deposed her
Callaghan was before my time; was his defeat dignified?
If not, we're back to Wilson.

Maybe the job of PM really is undoable, and destroys all who crave it.

Think Callaghan was reasonably dignified. He remained well liked. As did Major to be fair. And Blair stepped down. I don't think it's as bleak as you paint it.

One thing that I deplore is leaders stepping down the day after a GE defeat.

Or a referendum...

Sound advice from @Cyclefree . Never accept a caution from or fly solo with the Old Bill.

Daveyboy1961 said:

dixiedean said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cyclefree said:

dixiedean said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

Not sure these proposals are all that radical. As a Wiganer I distinctly remember being subject to random stop and search on suspicion of intention to attend a protest based purely on my starting location.
Then we were told which parts of the country we could and couldn't travel to.
But that was during the Strike and we weren't middle class. I don't remember a great deal of libertarian outrage at the time.

Not sure how proletarian one had to be. I remember one of the better political reminiscences on PB - alas I forget the name; about being a drinks company representative at that time, being stopped and encouraged to donate the contents of his boot to refresh the plod.

No. Alas. Basically. Where you from? (And numberplates were a pretty big tell in those days).
Turn around. You aren't free to travel around the country.
Regardless of your intentions.
Quite stunning it has been erased from the collective memory.
Was just a tad more intrusive than having to wear a mask in Asda.
And cheered to the rafters by the Right.

The police behaved pretty disgracefully during the miner's strike. No reason to give them even more powers now.

I really hope this Bill dies a death. Having another leader but keeping the same bad laws is - to me - no better than putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig.

Maybe one or two of you will read the header. The stuff in the Bill may be dull compared to the No 10 comedy act but it is important.

Sigh......

Anecdote Alert.

When my son was diagnosed on the autistic spectrum aged around 8 years old, my wife asked the consultant for a single piece of advice that we should take away from the diagnosis. His advice was never ever allow him to be interviewed by the police, particularly under caution, without legal representation, which was rather telling. He quoted Stefan Kishko.

When I was very, very young, during the Miner's strike, I was a Sales Rep for Courage the Brewers. I called mainly at Co-ops and off-licences in West Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, South Lincs. and Rutland. Rutland was covered by the Leicestershire Constabulary area, and West Leicestershire had a number of mines. On crossing into Rutland on one occasion I was stopped by Officers from the Met Police (yes the Met Police). They cleaned me out of the cases of samples I had in the boot- no point arguing I thought. I even had to help load the beer into their bus from my car. A year or two later I went to a wedding in Bolton. The groom worked for Greater Manchester Police and I regaled my story. He told me his. He said he made a fortune in overtime patroling the Warwickshire coalfields. On one occasion they were staying in a hostel recently vacated by the Met. He said somewhere along the M1 the Met bus was stopped and the hostel tellys were recovered.

I have told my children to be very polite to, but very cautious of the police. My youngest son detests them. I would limit rather than increase their power!

I can't agree more. I remember seeing pictures of the police in the miners strike waving wads of cash in the faces of the picket line, their overtime money.

Never help the police with their enquiries. Remember, the only reason they ask you questions is because they don't have the evidence to charge until you give it to them.

Although. My uncle was a regular Bobby. He made huge sums during the Strike, but struggled to reconcile the behaviour of many of his colleagues. He was a working class Wiganer, who joined the Police precisely to avoid having to go down t'pit. He collected for the Strike fund in his spare time. Wigan Police was a source of healthy donations. Many of his mates suffered.
He took to drink, and died at an early age.
Not all coppers are bastards.

Agreed. There's enough wrong uns around though.

I think much of the culture changed with those events.
From an acceptably "manly" way of being a compassionate public servant. To a honeypot for thick bullies to congregate around.

Sounds fair.

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1483590020158169096?s=20

Senior Tory backbencher says go to bed
11:59 PM · Jan 18, 2022