Latest next Tory leader betting on the Smarkets exchange – politicalbetting.com

MoonRabbit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCL: Whitehall enforcer Sue Gray WILL interview Dominic Cummings over his explosive party claims.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1483488255953846272?s=20

Good

That is a big development. Moving quite quickly now.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bit more on this - group of about 20 of the 2019 intake have met a few times to talk about the overall situation, including, it's said how to defend PM if opposition parties force a vote of no confidence in the Commons

Two of their number suggest there may be a flurry of them submitting letters to Graham Brady tomorrow afternoon - that could rapidly change the situation for No 10 - however, it could also, easily melt away

The possible threat certainly ups the ante for PMQs tomorrow - a poor performance could convince more of them to act

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1483493359532584963

This is getting like bloody lockdowns....we all know what has to happen, we all know it is going to happen...but all this delay and dithering and can kicking hoping something turns up, just makes it worse.

MISTY said:

Applicant said:

MISTY said:

It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him

Isn't this how our democracy is supposed to work?

If it hasn't worked that way in recent times, its partly Labour's fault.

It was Labour, not the Tory backbenchers, who gave Johnson more unchecked power than any PM, well, since Churchill, and they got zero representation in return. Its no wonder Johnson and his coterie felt invincible.

Steve Baker has often voiced his frustration that attempts to corral the leadership of the party and provide opposition have gone nowhere because Labour simply weren't interested.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bit more on this - group of about 20 of the 2019 intake have met a few times to talk about the overall situation, including, it's said how to defend PM if opposition parties force a vote of no confidence in the Commons

Two of their number suggest there may be a flurry of them submitting letters to Graham Brady tomorrow afternoon - that could rapidly change the situation for No 10 - however, it could also, easily melt away

The possible threat certainly ups the ante for PMQs tomorrow - a poor performance could convince more of them to act

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1483493359532584963

This is getting like bloody lockdowns....we all know what has to happen, we all know it is going to happen...but all this delay and dithering and can kicking hoping something turns up, just makes it worse.

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ThePoliticalParty said:

Ruth Begby of Sky News is an interesting assassin, given her recent history

She's even on Countdown this week, no less.

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

ThePoliticalParty said:

Ruth Begby of Sky News is an interesting assassin, given her recent history

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

As far as I am concerned Boris achieved Brexit and has done well on covid

I had no problem with him until the Paterson debacle, coupled with wallpapergate and partygate, and he simply has to go

Let us not forget that labour's cabinet largely voted for Corbyn and Starmer was deeply involved in that cabinet

I will rejoin the conservatives once Boris has gone

Polruan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

As far as I am concerned Boris achieved Brexit and has done well on covid

I had no problem with him until the Paterson debacle, coupled with wallpapergate and partygate, and he simply has to go

Let us not forget that labour's cabinet largely voted for Corbyn and Starmer was deeply involved in that cabinet

I will rejoin the conservatives once Boris has gone

The Corbyn comparison is interesting - will there be a similar mass disavowal of Johnson when he is gone? Will he find himself outside the Conservative party within a year, and his supporters be gradually shuffled out of positions of power? It's hard to tell whether he has changed the party for good.

stjohn said:

Following Richard Nabavi's lead, I backed Raab on Betfair £45 at average odd of 28.5 but I've just cashed out. -£3.64. Too many uncertainties for my liking.

Polruan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

As far as I am concerned Boris achieved Brexit and has done well on covid

I had no problem with him until the Paterson debacle, coupled with wallpapergate and partygate, and he simply has to go

Let us not forget that labour's cabinet largely voted for Corbyn and Starmer was deeply involved in that cabinet

I will rejoin the conservatives once Boris has gone

The Corbyn comparison is interesting - will there be a similar mass disavowal of Johnson when he is gone? Will he find himself outside the Conservative party within a year, and his supporters be gradually shuffled out of positions of power? It's hard to tell whether he has changed the party for good.

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

Not wrong though. Most redwall voters only voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, repeat for Boris not the Tories.

If Boris goes most of the redwall will go back to voting Labour as it normally does

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Chameleon said:

'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

Time for a bit of John Lennon:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=john+lennon+nobody+told+me&docid=608004736086391556&mid=1929B1E540139158631E1929B1E540139158631E&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=/videos/search?q=John%20Lennon%20Song%20No%20Body%20Told%20Me%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=john%20lennon%20song%20no%20body%20told%20me%20lyrics&sc=0-39&sk=&cvid=268B0410849E4DC39AA553D4D83C99B2

Complemented by this one (the public speaking this time) -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA

That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).

Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.

This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.

I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.

John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January.
I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.

*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.

MoonRabbit said:

So after the Novak send home from the tennis, where does it leave anti vaxxers in sport? Is it fair to stop world number 1 whose is unvaxxed from playing, but world 113 or so can still take part in the tournament?

For example numerous numbers of England Rugby squad unvaxxed, should they be there?

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.

It'd need pebbledash to hide *that* wallpaper.

Please tell me that is a joke?

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

Not wrong though. Most redwall voters only voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, repeat for Boris not the Tories.

If Boris goes most of the redwall will go back to voting Labour as it normally does

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

Not wrong though. Most redwall voters only voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, repeat for Boris not the Tories.

If Boris goes most of the redwall will go back to voting Labour as it normally does

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another email to a constituent, this time from @kevinhollinrake. Says “There is a requirement within the [ministerial code] that any significant breach would necessitate the rendering of a resignation, and this of course applies to the Prime Minister.”



https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483497509704065026

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another email to a constituent, this time from @kevinhollinrake. Says “There is a requirement within the [ministerial code] that any significant breach would necessitate the rendering of a resignation, and this of course applies to the Prime Minister.”



https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483497509704065026

Omnium said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Farooq said:

Razedabode said:

DavidL said:

Dura_Ace said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BBC

EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

This is becoming very serious and real

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?

That's not what the article says. The EU says Europe is closer to war, etc.

Nobody is going to war in Ukraine except Russia. Even the normally demented tory couch commandos on here don't want British forces involved.

And yet a small contingent of UK troops are there. Is this wise?

If anything, letting Russia regain Ukraine by force with no consequence seems to me to be repeating the mistakes of the past…

“If we let them have this they’ll give up with any further demands”. Yeah, right

Spot on. If I were the UKPM, and Ukraine asked for help, I'd give it. Troops, equipment, bombs, planes. Anything. We need to contain Putin's aggression.

The UK has had C-17s shuttling back and forth between Kiev with anti-tank weapons since yesterday.

I just hope they're paying for them.

The projectile-anti-squid-tank-apparatus is the finest in the world. Twelve men, a week, and it's ready to shoot entirely ineffectively at any tank within 100 paces. So fearsome in fact that the first offence use is generally regarded as knocking on the tanks door and asking if they'd like to surrender.

The brave Generals of our armed services (nameless as well as nearly countless) have lunched night and day to deliver this. Only a few billion over budget, and we only have two rather than the 450 that had been envisaged.

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh FFS.

The person charged with making sense of it all — and who has been given the power of judge and jury — is of course Gray. Politicians on both sides of the divide have raised her reputation to that of near mythical status.

Yet when her report arrives it may disappoint. Her terms of reference are limited and do not require her to pass judgment or make a determination on who is and isn’t telling the truth. It does not even mandate her to search Downing Street emails or WhatsApp messages in her quest for evidence.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-has-dominic-cummings-delivered-the-fatal-blow-7xl0prj07

Wasn't that pointed out some time ago by Cyclefree?

Well @Cyclefree was more she isn't qualified to do the job but David Allen Green over the weekend also pointed out that her remit may not be enough to allow her to reach a conclusion because who wishes to criticise a boss who may remain in place

Sue Gray is famous for not liking things written down, or released to the public. She hates FOI requests. She hates email.

I'm not sure she is the ideal person to run this inquiry.

HYUFD said:

Polruan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

As far as I am concerned Boris achieved Brexit and has done well on covid

I had no problem with him until the Paterson debacle, coupled with wallpapergate and partygate, and he simply has to go

Let us not forget that labour's cabinet largely voted for Corbyn and Starmer was deeply involved in that cabinet

I will rejoin the conservatives once Boris has gone

The Corbyn comparison is interesting - will there be a similar mass disavowal of Johnson when he is gone? Will he find himself outside the Conservative party within a year, and his supporters be gradually shuffled out of positions of power? It's hard to tell whether he has changed the party for good.

Even Starmer was in Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet for goodness sake, as was Rayner, Ashworth etc.

McConnell, Abbott etc still Labour MPs.

Corbyn may have gone but his supporters have hardly been all expelled from Labour

Luckyguy1983 said:

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.

It'd need pebbledash to hide *that* wallpaper.

Please tell me that is a joke?

That's not Boris's flat, for the 55th time. That is Lulu Lytle's own flat.

https://youtu.be/gtW6fgrUIMI

JonWC said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

Not wrong though. Most redwall voters only voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, repeat for Boris not the Tories.

If Boris goes most of the redwall will go back to voting Labour as it normally does

I think it is wrong, at least in some cases. Take some of the Nottinghamshire small town seats. Once there were coal mines but demographically these place are now very little different to Gainsborough over the Trent which has been Tory since the dinosaurs died. Labour might get them back in a very good year but otherwise I think they are blue.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

I was thinking same thing! I am not sure I'd want the job if I had to look at that paper every day, it's fecking revolting. I am sure Leon has seen more tasteful tart's boudoirs

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Chameleon said:

'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

Time for a bit of John Lennon:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=john+lennon+nobody+told+me&docid=608004736086391556&mid=1929B1E540139158631E1929B1E540139158631E&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=/videos/search?q=John%20Lennon%20Song%20No%20Body%20Told%20Me%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=john%20lennon%20song%20no%20body%20told%20me%20lyrics&sc=0-39&sk=&cvid=268B0410849E4DC39AA553D4D83C99B2

Complemented by this one (the public speaking this time) -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA

That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).

Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.

This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.

I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.

John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January.
I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.

*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another email to a constituent, this time from @kevinhollinrake. Says “There is a requirement within the [ministerial code] that any significant breach would necessitate the rendering of a resignation, and this of course applies to the Prime Minister.”



https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483497509704065026

I know Kevin and he is a very successful businessman and an excellent conservative mp

Not at the same time, one hopes.

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

Stuartinromford said:

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:

1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation;
2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and
3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.

1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.

2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning

3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.

Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.

May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.

Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?

"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."

On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.

Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.

Does Raab fit that?

Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).

We may be in for interesting times.

Rab Butler was never considered PM, although he was in acting charge after Eden resigned until Macmillan was appointed. The previous time the question arose was in 1865, and then and every time before an obvious successor was appointed immediately (in 1865 former Prime Minister and incumbent Foreign Secretary Lord John Russell).

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Polruan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

As far as I am concerned Boris achieved Brexit and has done well on covid

I had no problem with him until the Paterson debacle, coupled with wallpapergate and partygate, and he simply has to go

Let us not forget that labour's cabinet largely voted for Corbyn and Starmer was deeply involved in that cabinet

I will rejoin the conservatives once Boris has gone

The Corbyn comparison is interesting - will there be a similar mass disavowal of Johnson when he is gone? Will he find himself outside the Conservative party within a year, and his supporters be gradually shuffled out of positions of power? It's hard to tell whether he has changed the party for good.

I expect he will leave the HOC very quickly

Flatlander said:

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.

It'd need pebbledash to hide *that* wallpaper.

Please tell me that is a joke?

That's not Boris's flat, for the 55th time. That is Lulu Lytle's own flat.

https://youtu.be/gtW6fgrUIMI

I know, apols, it was posted as an example of Lytle's work.

I forgot to take any photos when I was at the party work-based event in No. 11.

I should imagine that No 11 is similar albeit improved by the addition of crayon marks and dog scratches.

Polruan said:

HYUFD said:

Polruan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

This really is the weirdest time in politics and PB that I can remember. It’s really strange to see Conservatives let rip at their own leader. It’s doubly weird that none of these revelations about Boris’ character are news. It will be odd to see people snap back to support this bunch, who by and large will be the same people that have backed Boris as if nothing had happened and say it’s all new.

As far as I am concerned Boris achieved Brexit and has done well on covid

I had no problem with him until the Paterson debacle, coupled with wallpapergate and partygate, and he simply has to go

Let us not forget that labour's cabinet largely voted for Corbyn and Starmer was deeply involved in that cabinet

I will rejoin the conservatives once Boris has gone

The Corbyn comparison is interesting - will there be a similar mass disavowal of Johnson when he is gone? Will he find himself outside the Conservative party within a year, and his supporters be gradually shuffled out of positions of power? It's hard to tell whether he has changed the party for good.

Even Starmer was in Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet for goodness sake, as was Rayner, Ashworth etc.

McConnell, Abbott etc still Labour MPs.

Corbyn may have gone but his supporters have hardly been all expelled from Labour

I wasn't suggesting Corbyn's supporters have been expelled from the party, but it's generally accepted that each reshuffle by Starmer has moved a few more members of the previous Corbyn faction a bit further from power. There's been a very conscious effort to distance the party from the Corbyn era as soon as possible. Will the post-Johnson Conservative narrative be more like "excellent leader, did some good things which we are continuing, shame he screwed up" or "none of us ever really supported his dreadful policies"?

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

JonWC said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

Not wrong though. Most redwall voters only voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, repeat for Boris not the Tories.

If Boris goes most of the redwall will go back to voting Labour as it normally does

I think it is wrong, at least in some cases. Take some of the Nottinghamshire small town seats. Once there were coal mines but demographically these place are now very little different to Gainsborough over the Trent which has been Tory since the dinosaurs died. Labour might get them back in a very good year but otherwise I think they are blue.

Even Sunak as leader would lose 104 Tory seats in a new poll today. Cummings is dragging down the whole party not just Boris
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1483469746217566212?s=20

Surely you mean Sunak is dragging down the party? As I understand it, Cummings has never been a member.

HYUFD said:

JonWC said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

Not wrong though. Most redwall voters only voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, repeat for Boris not the Tories.

If Boris goes most of the redwall will go back to voting Labour as it normally does

I think it is wrong, at least in some cases. Take some of the Nottinghamshire small town seats. Once there were coal mines but demographically these place are now very little different to Gainsborough over the Trent which has been Tory since the dinosaurs died. Labour might get them back in a very good year but otherwise I think they are blue.

Even Sunak as leader would lose 104 Tory seats in a new poll today. Cummings is dragging down the whole party not just Boris
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1483469746217566212?s=20

Cookie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Welsh conservatives cancel their Spring conference due in March

Why?

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.

It'd need pebbledash to hide *that* wallpaper.

Please tell me that is a joke?

That's not Boris's flat, for the 55th time. That is Lulu Lytle's own flat.

https://youtu.be/gtW6fgrUIMI

I know, apols, it was posted as an example of Lytle's work.

I forgot to take any photos when I was at the party work-based event in No. 11.

rcs1000 said:

Why no George Harrison love?

He produced the best Beatles song (Something), the best post Beatles album (All Things Must Pass), and the last decent song by an ex-Beatle (Long Time Ago When We Were Fab).

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

So after the Novak send home from the tennis, where does it leave anti vaxxers in sport? Is it fair to stop world number 1 whose is unvaxxed from playing, but world 113 or so can still take part in the tournament?

For example numerous numbers of England Rugby squad unvaxxed, should they be there?

The issue with Novax wasn't the fact he hadn't been vaccinated, it was the fact the documentation he used to get himself into Australia without being vaccinated was a pile of lies.