One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report. https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712
Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands
of pennies
ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?
Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
With the winter olympics going ahead in said country its hard to disagree.
When I was growing up I was taught about all these examples of people who did the right thing even when it wasn't in their interest. Churchill in 1940, MLK in the sit ins, Mandela in prison etc. And of course the heroic characters in fiction we celebrate even more so: Frodo, Luke Skywalker etc.
I took this to heart. Even though I sometimes in the moment, I always make a huge effort for something I have time to reflect on to do the right thing. One of the biggest disappointments of my coming of age is realizing that the vast majority of people are such moral cowards. People just want to keep their heads down and avoid standing up for what is right. Even worse, they come up with convoluted justifications to hide their cowardice, excuse or play down the immorality and deflect blame to others. It is so pathetic.
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
That'll take more time than it really warrants. Is it suitably alarmist? Does it involve aliens, Chinese or Russian invasion, or all three?
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
Can't you just tell me?
No to doxing.
I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).
I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.
If he's gone within a week as suggested then it has to be Rishi Sunak. Mike will win a packet on a fantastic bet.
I reckon it's the only time Sunak can become Prime Minister. Leave it much longer and he will be another William Hague. Right person, wrong time.
I believe our resident aquatic libertarian Bartholomew was the first to tip Sunak. No idea if Sunak would make a good PM, but it's pretty much worth it to see him next just so a 250-1 bet is a winner for someone on the board.
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Just so I'm forewarned to steer clear, what's his latest pseudonym please?
“Charles”
I'm not a huge fan of Charles' politics but obviously not. He's been on here far longer than I have by the looks of it.
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
Yesterday I got in touch with The Sun to ask whether James Slack, the PM's former spokesperson, attended the Kate Josephs event December 17th. We were told he didn't want to pre-empt the Sue Gray report so wouldn't comment. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483469098780696578
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report. https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712
Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands
of pennies
ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?
Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
Can't you just tell me?
No to doxing.
I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).
I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.
Nevermind.
If you can't identify him yourself then you don't need to know, because if it isn't obvious to you then he's clearly not noticeably different enough to you for you to need to avoid him.
Yesterday I got in touch with The Sun to ask whether James Slack, the PM's former spokesperson, attended the Kate Josephs event December 17th. We were told he didn't want to pre-empt the Sue Gray report so wouldn't comment. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483469098780696578
why on earth do people not say Yes when the answer is an obvious Yes.
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
Can't you just tell me?
No to doxing.
I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).
I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.
Nevermind.
It would be somewhat amusing if the person we have always assumed Leon is, is NOT Leon. It is simply a conspiracy. Maybe Leon is actually a secret descendent of Dan Brown, and his real identity has been shielded from the world by an army of alien journalists dressed as Benedictine monks....
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
It was pathetic. He has the air of a naughty schoolboy who knows you know he's lying but is hoping against insurmountable odds that "something will turn up."
The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's such a change of style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period compared to now maybe, relatively speaking, and only for a few months.
Reading today’s Times, there’s a much softer line on the masks. Says there’s a discussion going on as to whether to drop Plan B entirely (including masks) or just the WFH and vaxports bit.
“The debate now is whether to separate things out or do it all as a package,” one source said.
As keeping masks would require a new bill, I think it will be very hard for the government to do.
So HY may end up having to change his opinion to ensure it aligns with government policy.
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
Can't you just tell me?
No to doxing.
I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).
I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.
Nevermind.
It would be somewhat amusing if the person we have always assumed Leon is, is NOT Leon. It is simply a conspiracy. Maybe Leon is actually a secret descendent of Dan Brown, and his real identity has been shielded from the world by an army of alien journalists dressed as Benedictine monks....
I knew it was a mistake to install wifi in Rosslyn Chapel.
Reading today’s Times, there’s a much softer line on the masks. Says there’s a discussion going on as to whether to drop Plan B entirely (including masks) or just the WFH and vaxports bit.
“The debate now is whether to separate things out or do it all as a package,” one source said.
As keeping masks would require a new bill, I think it will be very hard for the government to do.
So HY may end up having to change his opinion to ensure it aligns with government policy.
3rd sentence is the reason the reports about dropping the rest and keeping masks were always likely to be bilge briefed out by civil servants who want to keep this going.
Boris does not have anywhere near the political capital for another triple figure rebellion, and there is no way to keep masks without one.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Sounds abot right. @kinabalu thinks RS is value even at short odds, 2.2 ish at present on smarkets, I think that's only fair value. Con leadership contests surprise as often as not.
The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's so different in style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period, maybe.
It’s impossible to say. The public might just take to mr smooth regardless what problems he is struggling with. Some politicians just more Teflon than others, he strikes me as one of them.
Some of this Great Depression stuff on the horizon i’m thinking might be slightly bigged up. The financial media increasingly reckon high inflation will be short lived, growth is good and may continue with post covid rebound, credit crunch may not be without government mitigation, such as give money to energy suppliers so they don’t have to charge so much.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.
All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?
It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.
I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
"Nobody warned me drinks event was against rules - Boris Johnson" is currently running on the BBC. If I'd managed to allow myself to be baited into saying that, I'd crawl under a rock and die of shame. Boris Johnson, on the other hand...
I'm not normally one for seeing Cummings as a mastermind, but his hand is quite visible here. He said that he had told Johnson that the party was against the rules, and Johnson has taken the bait and responded "no, nobody told me that the party was against the rules!", neglecting to remember that as the Prime Minister who had announced the rules he might be expected to know them without being told.
Even if Johnson is incapable of embarassment, his colleagues aren't. It's actually quite hard to maintain self-respect when you are, even nominally, being led around by someone who very obviously does not have his act together. At some point it becomes an offence to the vanity of Tory MPs, and at that point (which might be right about now) he's toast.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
*It is.
Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
Boris statement is even more ridiculous than the infamous Brown quote, "I take full responsibility for what happens, and that's why the person who was responsible went immediately."
Eustice is doing a pretty good job from the environment/animal welfare perspective - one of the Ministers quietly pursuing the day job instead of posturing.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.
All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?
It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.
I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
Oh I suspect Sunak will be dispensing with a lot of dead wood - he has a lot to fix if he wants to see past 2023 /24.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Sounds abot right. @kinabalu thinks RS is value even at short odds, 2.2 ish at present on smarkets, I think that's only fair value. Con leadership contests surprise as often as not.
BUT sunak 3.7 to be PM on 1.1.23 which gets round the interim PM problem of backing him as next PM. that's the bet I would go for if I wanted to back him at all.
One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report. https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712
Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands
of pennies
ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?
Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's so different in style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period, maybe.
It’s impossible to say. The public might just take to mr smooth regardless what problems he is struggling with. Some politicians just more Teflon than others, he strikes me as one of them.
Some of this Great Depression stuff on the horizon i’m thinking might be slightly bigged up. The financial media increasingly reckon high inflation will be short lived, growth is good and may continue with post covid rebound, credit crunch may not be without government mitigation, such as give money to energy suppliers so they don’t have to charge so much.
If the financial media are saying high inflation is shorted live - my assumption based on 50 years of experience is that stagflation here we go.
Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?
Please can we stop banning people for naff all.
Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
Can't you just tell me?
No to doxing.
I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).
I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.
Nevermind.
It would be somewhat amusing if the person we have always assumed Leon is, is NOT Leon. It is simply a conspiracy. Maybe Leon is actually a secret descendent of Dan Brown, and his real identity has been shielded from the world by an army of alien journalists dressed as Benedictine monks....
No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today. https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
It was pathetic. He has the air of a naughty schoolboy who knows you know he's lying but is hoping against insurmountable odds that "something will turn up."
I think we're down to "Maybe the horse will talk" now.
One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report. https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712
Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands
of pennies
ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?
Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
*It is.
Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
One said the mood is “hardening” and disquiet coming from a number of different wings, new MPs but also experienced, sober types who believe a quick change is their best saviour. Who knows, only Graham Brady... https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473601361760262
English hospital beds occupied falling in every region, so we are almost certainly past peak deaths by specimen date, and they are going to have peaked at less than half the bottom of the 600-6000 range.
I think he said a public figure had a different sexual orientation than their publicity and life circumstances would suggest
Given his butt plug crafting, you might say we have lost one impaler but gained another. Net standstill.
Seems a bit harsh, why not just delete and issue a site-wide warning, but then I'm just a....... manufacturer of wickerwork manginas who lives in a windmill, what do I know
Now I'm not saying that Vlad is the 6th reincarnation of SeanT - but the back story does need some work - it's less plausible than the coincides in a S K Tremayne novel
Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.
Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?
Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business
That is how it is, I believe. Me, I've never managed it. I have, however, THREE times had a post removed for being too tasty. So I'm no dull-as-ditchwater, holier-than-thou, po-faced, insipid nonentity. Not at all.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
“ Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. ‘. Yes! 👍🏻
I wasn’t around for the end of Margaret Thatcher, but didn’t John Major get so much support it pointless the others fighting on? If Rishi gets so many MPs so others concede there is no point of a membership round, how upset will the membership be?
One said the mood is “hardening” and disquiet coming from a number of different wings, new MPs but also experienced, sober types who believe a quick change is their best saviour. Who knows, only Graham Brady... https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473601361760262
I'm impressed by how good the links are between left-leaning media and the hard-nosed brexiteers of the red wall and the shires.
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
Sorry HYUFD but this is absolutely mental. It gives truth to the trope that a lot of Tories only care about being in power and not what being in power is for.
I’m a Conservative and a Unionist and I want Scotland to WANT to be part of the UK - you don’t attract Scottish sympathy yet alone votes by telling them that they don’t fucking matter because we’ve got enough votes in middle England…..
If the Tories want to be in charge of a successful UK then they need to be supported by the UK as a whole to get the best out of it otherwise what’s the point of the UK for Scots and what’s the point of Scotland being part of the UK for the rest of the UK if it is ignored and treated as second class when it has so much good to contribute.
“Sorry guys we really don’t give a shit about you as we’ve got a billion votes in Surrey so we will set the rules to suit them”….. genius!
Scotland has Holyrood now for most of its domestic policy, it no longer cares about Westminster for half its laws, so why should Westminster Tories care that much about what middle Scotland thinks given it does not even vote Tory anyway? In any case Surrey is no longer safe Tory, unlike say most of Essex or Lincolnshire.
So, you think the Conservative Party should only care about people who vote for it? Explains a lot.
And Scots do very much care about many aspects of Reserved policy. Why on earth should we be uninterested in nuclear weapons, taxation and foreign relations?
Talking of talentless hacks....I see Guy Richie has a new movie coming out with of course the likes of Jason Statham...and Hugh Grant...who seems to have transported the exact voice and mannerisms from the journalist he played in the Gentleman (which was pretty good) to an evil billionaire character in this new movie. All about talent is the movies, apparently.
For goodness sake, give the guy a break. We can all get a bit squiffy after a banging work event.
There's little point in warning someone that a drinks party is against the rules, if he's too out of it from the previous night's drinking to take it in - or even remember you've said it.
Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.
Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?
Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business
That is how it is, I believe. Me, I've never managed it. I have, however, THREE times had a post removed for being too tasty. So I'm no dull-as-ditchwater, holier-than-thou, po-faced, insipid nonentity. Not at all.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Sounds abot right. @kinabalu thinks RS is value even at short odds, 2.2 ish at present on smarkets, I think that's only fair value. Con leadership contests surprise as often as not.
As long as the surprise is Penny M, I'll be in clover. Anyone else and ... oh dear.
No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today. https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140
One for Malcolmg. Just had an email flash up on my screen claiming to be from Donald J Trump. Seen in my peripheral vision only, my brain interpreted it as Donald J Turnip.
Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky.
Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂
Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?
Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.
and others since
But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.
Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.
Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today.
No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today. https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140
They need enough to make him lose the VONC.
How stupid is your average Tory MP if other MPs think 50+% of them will vote to keep Boris on for a year when the other option is to get rid of him.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
*It is.
Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
Yes, You need to read the rules carefully, but in general the Leadership markets will exclude a temporary or acting leader, whereas the PM markets are settled as you say on the simple fact of who is PM, which is not ambiguous. The only problem is that some bookies muddy the waters by saying something like 'Acting PM will not count', but my understanding is that that refers to something like Raab taking over whilst Boris was in hospital, rather than a PM who has agreed to stand down once a contest is complete.
The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's so different in style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period, maybe.
It’s impossible to say. The public might just take to mr smooth regardless what problems he is struggling with. Some politicians just more Teflon than others, he strikes me as one of them.
Some of this Great Depression stuff on the horizon i’m thinking might be slightly bigged up. The financial media increasingly reckon high inflation will be short lived, growth is good and may continue with post covid rebound, credit crunch may not be without government mitigation, such as give money to energy suppliers so they don’t have to charge so much.
If the financial media are saying high inflation is shorted live - my assumption based on 50 years of experience is that stagflation here we go.
I think he said a public figure had a different sexual orientation than their publicity and life circumstances would suggest
Given his butt plug crafting, you might say we have lost one impaler but gained another. Net standstill.
Seems a bit harsh, why not just delete and issue a site-wide warning, but then I'm just a....... manufacturer of wickerwork manginas who lives in a windmill, what do I know
Now I'm not saying that Vlad is the 6th reincarnation of SeanT - but the back story does need some work - it's less plausible than the coincides in a S K Tremayne novel
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
It was pathetic. He has the air of a naughty schoolboy who knows you know he's lying but is hoping against insurmountable odds that "something will turn up."
He's like a latter day Billy Bunter, but without the charm.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.
All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?
It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.
I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
Oh I suspect Sunak will be dispensing with a lot of dead wood - he has a lot to fix if he wants to see past 2023 /24.
And replacing it with? There is precious little on the back benches. Boris sacked them and de selected them. They are the never wases and the newly elected.
Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky.
Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂
Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?
Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.
and others since
But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.
Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.
Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
In April he's going to be mega millionaire ex-banker imposing swingeing tax increases on ordinary brits just as fuel prices rocket and inflation bites.
Comments
Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
I took this to heart. Even though I sometimes in the moment, I always make a huge effort for something I have time to reflect on to do the right thing. One of the biggest disappointments of my coming of age is realizing that the vast majority of people are such moral cowards. People just want to keep their heads down and avoid standing up for what is right. Even worse, they come up with convoluted justifications to hide their cowardice, excuse or play down the immorality and deflect blame to others. It is so pathetic.
I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.
Nevermind.
“It’s so unfair it’s so unfair” complains tearful manchild on realising he’s blown it.
What? He’s done that as well today 😲
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483469098780696578
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
I think
She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.
Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895
I imagine that he was answering that charge.
Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?
Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
Agony if yes.
“The debate now is whether to separate things out or do it all as a package,” one source said.
As keeping masks would require a new bill, I think it will be very hard for the government to do.
So HY may end up having to change his opinion to ensure it aligns with government policy.
Boris does not have anywhere near the political capital for another triple figure rebellion, and there is no way to keep masks without one.
Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.
Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?
Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business
Some of this Great Depression stuff on the horizon i’m thinking might be slightly bigged up. The financial media increasingly reckon high inflation will be short lived, growth is good and may continue with post covid rebound, credit crunch may not be without government mitigation, such as give money to energy suppliers so they don’t have to charge so much.
All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?
It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.
I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
A dark horse emerges: Penny Mordaunt https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson
The Truss "shmooze operation" is underway https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/liz-truss-tory-leadership-schmooze-operation-as-boris-johnsons-popularity-plummets
Jeremy Hunt breaks cover https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/jeremy-hunt-says-it-would-take-a-lot-to-persuade-him-to-run-for-tory-leader-again
I'm not normally one for seeing Cummings as a mastermind, but his hand is quite visible here. He said that he had told Johnson that the party was against the rules, and Johnson has taken the bait and responded "no, nobody told me that the party was against the rules!", neglecting to remember that as the Prime Minister who had announced the rules he might be expected to know them without being told.
Even if Johnson is incapable of embarassment, his colleagues aren't. It's actually quite hard to maintain self-respect when you are, even nominally, being led around by someone who very obviously does not have his act together. At some point it becomes an offence to the vanity of Tory MPs, and at that point (which might be right about now) he's toast.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
*It is.
Both she and he are vegetarians I believe!! 😉
Lol.
and others since
But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140
a) were elected off the back of his leadership
b) would be expected to be on best behaviour hoping for a ministerial job one day
are plotting against the PM.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1483473180408885255
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1483443966636867588
Added to @BethRigby's "source inside No. 10", four people now recall events differently to the PM. ~ AA
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473601361760262
You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
Or advocate pineapple on pizza presumably?
I wasn’t around for the end of Margaret Thatcher, but didn’t John Major get so much support it pointless the others fighting on? If Rishi gets so many MPs so others concede there is no point of a membership round, how upset will the membership be?
PM Sunak in about two weeks?
I'm impressed by how good the links are between left-leaning media and the hard-nosed brexiteers of the red wall and the shires.
And Scots do very much care about many aspects of Reserved policy. Why on earth should we be uninterested in nuclear weapons, taxation and foreign relations?
An egregious crime, admittedly.
Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.
Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today.
Mind you, that interview was bloody awful. Everything he says and does makes it worse
There is precious little on the back benches. Boris sacked them and de selected them.
They are the never wases and the newly elected.
Negative enough for you?