That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
*It is.
Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
Yes, You need to read the rules carefully, but in general the Leadership markets will exclude a temporary or acting leader, whereas the PM markets are settled as you say on the simple fact of who is PM, which is not ambiguous. The only problem is that some bookies muddy the waters by saying something like 'Acting PM will not count', but my understanding is that that refers to something like Raab taking over whilst Boris was in hospital, rather than a PM who has agreed to stand down once a contest is complete.
There is no role as to 'acting PM'. I think it's impossible.
Whoa! Scott has been banned for saying Radiohead are talentless hacks! Personally I have always regarded Radiohead as world leader in avante-garde music for funerals and other morbid events requiring caterwauling and nails-on-blackboard stuff. There is definitely talent there, but not one I would spend any money on.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.
All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?
It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.
I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
Oh I suspect Sunak will be dispensing with a lot of dead wood - he has a lot to fix if he wants to see past 2023 /24.
And replacing it with? There is precious little on the back benches. Boris sacked them and de selected them. They are the never wases and the newly elected.
Seems Johnson doubling down on the line that he thought he was attending a work event.
So obviously a lie that it is insulting.
I guess only war with Russia can save him now.
It really is the equivalent of when the plod raid a knocking shop and catch some bloke with his trousers around his ankles being serviced by a lady of the night and they claim, no officer, I got lost and I called on this establishment to ask for directions and the reason I didn't have my trousers on was the nice lady gave me a drink and i spilled it.
Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky.
Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂
Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?
Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.
and others since
But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.
Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.
Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
In April he's going to be mega millionaire ex-banker imposing swingeing tax increases on ordinary brits just as fuel prices rocket and inflation bites.
Negative enough for you?
At least that's normal politics and not the shitshow of lies, corruption and foolishness that is current set-up.
I have to say - if the news is correct - I’m surprised at how quickly the possible end of Johnson has come about.
Mind you, that interview was bloody awful. Everything he says and does makes it worse
It is not as quick as some thought. There was a bunch of people on here last week saying Boris would be gone before the weekend was out and here we are on Tuesday...
I think he will stay until the MPs get enough spine to push him out
A group of inmates at a jail in the US state of Arkansas are taking legal action, saying they were unknowingly prescribed the horse deworming drug Ivermectin to treat Covid-19.
Ivermectin is a human medicine and been given billions of times to humans. NOW, if it works for COVID, well, that's a different matter, the evidence suggests no. But the lazy "its horse dewormer" is Fake news. There is a horse dewormer paste which contains that some idiots in the US were buying and taking, but this kind of crap reporting doesn't help the story.
They mention it further down the piece, but FFS, get it right from the start. Getting basic shit like this wrong just aids the weirdos and conspiracy theorist.
English hospital beds occupied falling in every region, so we are almost certainly past peak deaths by specimen date, and they are going to have peaked at less than half the bottom of the 600-6000 range.
Less than the bottom of the 600-6000 range yes, almost certainly. but not necessarily less than half.
Reading today’s Times, there’s a much softer line on the masks. Says there’s a discussion going on as to whether to drop Plan B entirely (including masks) or just the WFH and vaxports bit.
“The debate now is whether to separate things out or do it all as a package,” one source said.
As keeping masks would require a new bill, I think it will be very hard for the government to do.
So HY may end up having to change his opinion to ensure it aligns with government policy.
3rd sentence is the reason the reports about dropping the rest and keeping masks were always likely to be bilge briefed out by civil servants who want to keep this going.
Boris does not have anywhere near the political capital for another triple figure rebellion, and there is no way to keep masks without one.
Government could let the legal structure lapse, but still promote masks through public health guidance, even sticking a decent budget behind a comms campaign, and indeed through their own behaviour. There's an argument that the appropriate thing to do is to withdraw legal requirements, but still stress the value of the behaviour, just as smoking remains legal, but is very clearly advised against.
I don't imagine the Government will do that, but there are a range of options available beyond law or no law.
Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky.
Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂
Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?
Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.
and others since
But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.
Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.
Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
In April he's going to be mega millionaire ex-banker imposing swingeing tax increases on ordinary brits just as fuel prices rocket and inflation bites.
Negative enough for you?
Yes, if he doesn't chicken out of the tax increases. But the electorate we're talking about here is the conservative party members. That would be a net positive. A return to Thatcherite rigour.
Actually on reflection they'd ideally like him to cancel the tax increases and convert them into spending cuts instead.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
I'm pretty sure it's now* or never for Rishi Sunak. For the reasons cited below, very soon he will also be pretty toxic.
Since I'm also now pretty sure the Conservatives won't get a working majority in 2024, leader of the Opposition after 14 yrs in power isn't going to be a position of strength from which to rise again. William Hague suffered from being the right guy at the wrong time and I think the same would happen to Sunak.
Now or never.
*Now = in the next two months before the fiscal and financial sh*t hits our fans.
Whoever manages to secure the spot as the principal Unionist party earns a heap of tactical votes. The SCons are about to receive a triple-whammy:
- slipping behind SLab and thereby losing a shedload of anti-SNP tactical votes - tactical unwind as SLDs desert Boris’s Brexit Party - decent centre-right folk simply abstaining
Not really. In most of Scotland there is no real competition between Labour and the Tories. Labour is trying to recover seats in the central belt, the Tories in the borders, the North east and, possibly some of the lower highlands. Tactical voting will continue. Only in Edinburgh is there room for much confusion and a splitting of the vote.
No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today. https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140
They need enough to make him lose the VONC.
I honestly think any VONC is in the bag, I don't see where support in a secret ballot would come from.
Thinking of prior VONCs, I think he will be closer to Corbyn's MP backing in 2016 (18.8%) than he will to May's 2018 backing (63.1%). So, I'm saying sub 40.5% in that, let's say sub 40%.
What might be a tad embarrassing, (but mainly for Boris rather than anyone else) will be if the amount of support for him goes below the level of the front bench payroll. I guess everyone will just smile a sheepish smile and say, Oh, well!
I mean, not everyone going public, not everyone having to resign for thinking privately Boris should go - that is why the system is designed as it is surely? Collective responsibility is about the government more than individuals, and if an ousting looms a minister is in his rights to sit in post and await the results whilst settling on a form of wording around the goverent line that they can be comfortable with.
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
Jakarta has been described as "sinking" in some reports. Is it a global warming thing? Are they expecting more floods?
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
*It is.
Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
Yes, You need to read the rules carefully, but in general the Leadership markets will exclude a temporary or acting leader, whereas the PM markets are settled as you say on the simple fact of who is PM, which is not ambiguous. The only problem is that some bookies muddy the waters by saying something like 'Acting PM will not count', but my understanding is that that refers to something like Raab taking over whilst Boris was in hospital, rather than a PM who has agreed to stand down once a contest is complete.
There is no role as to 'acting PM'. I think it's impossible.
Yes, exactly, which is why you need to be a bit wary if the bookie seems to think there is. Ladbrokes until a few days ago said 'Acting PM or similar will not count', but I see they've now removed that, I think following a request for clarification by Alastair Meeks. William Hill still say: "Next Permanent Prime Minister after Boris Johnson. Others on request. Acting PM does not count."
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
A group of inmates at a jail in the US state of Arkansas are taking legal action, saying they were unknowingly prescribed the horse deworming drug Ivermectin to treat Covid-19.
Ivermectin is a human medicine and been given billions of times to humans. NOW, if it works for COVID, well, that's a different matter, the evidence suggests no. But the lazy "its horse dewormer" is Fake news. There is a horse dewormer paste which contains that some idiots in the US were buying and taking, but this kind of crap reporting doesn't help the story.
They mention it further down the piece, but FFS, get it right from the start. Getting basic shit like this wrong just aids the weirdos and conspiracy theorist.
I still treasure an FT article relating to a startup I worked for. It was a 3 liner in the City news section. Each of the 3 sentences contained multiple mistakes. The information had been given to them in a press release.
So, literally, they were unable to copy undisputed facts (such as which bank was doing the finance) from an emailed press release to their 3 liner....
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
Weeks ago - you would have thought that on May 20th he would remember what he said on May 10th and 11th.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
I understand that Jakarta is becoming something of an environmental catastrophe. It’s sinking because of an overuse of groundwater and the sea wall won’t cope for much longer. There’s also an element of “levelling up” - seeking to redistribute economic activity elsewhere.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
One of the reasons often quoted is bad building practice and serious resultant land subsidence in substantial parts of Jakarta, and possible loss of significant parts of the city into the sea.
"I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.
Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.
This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.
Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
Sadly, Boris Johnson had a Zoom call earlier today with a contact who has since tested positive for Covid. Under the government's new strict isolation rules, this means he will unfortunately be unable to attend Prime Ministers Questions tomorrow.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
It's not an excuse; he's just accusing Cummings of lying when he says Johnson was told.
Of course, a situation where one of Cummings and Johnson must be telling the truth is a bit unstoppable force/immovable object. Only in reverse.
Sadly, Boris Johnson had a Zoom call earlier today with a contact who has since tested positive for Covid. Under the government's new strict isolation rules, this means he will unfortunately be unable to attend Prime Ministers Questions tomorrow.
Pulling the I got COVID line would seem most advisable and be somewhat believable (in a Novax way) given he is never out of vaccines centres....
"I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
I thought that - as the affair was ongoing - the statement was true, if misleading.
Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.
Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?
Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business
99% of bans are sin bins.
You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
Creep is a belting track.
It was sixth most played track on our Spotify 2021
Pablo Honey, in general, is an underrated album.
Not a huge Radiohead fan, but can recognize its musicality and originality. Far prefer you other recommendation, Robert - Leftfield. Tourism is looping in my car atm.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
"Juneau the capital of Alaska?"
"No I don't!"
Actually I didn't, always thought it was Anchorage
Also, I have just discovered that Aldous Huxley taught George Orwell at Eton.
Interview with Professor Cyrille Cohen, head of Immunology at Bar Ilan University and a member of the advisory committee for vaccines for the Israeli Government
Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.
Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.
This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.
Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
You mean, the fact that Alex Salmond is rap...errr...I...mean...ra...ther good at chess.
"I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
I thought that - as the affair was ongoing - the statement was true, if misleading.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
I have to say - if the news is correct - I’m surprised at how quickly the possible end of Johnson has come about.
Mind you, that interview was bloody awful. Everything he says and does makes it worse
It is not as quick as some thought. There was a bunch of people on here last week saying Boris would be gone before the weekend was out and here we are on Tuesday...
I think he will stay until the MPs get enough spine to push him out
I think I said he would be gone before PMQs this Wednesday. I couldn't see him facing Starmer after it was revealed they bought a special fridge as there was so much partying going on.
So I am running out of time as a predictor of events.
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
I thought that was Jamaica.
Yes, the repost to Jakarta? is "no, she went by jumbo Jet"
Going back to MS's Activision purchase - this is probably all you need to know
Ashley Sparkles🎙 @AshleyEsqueda I think all I need to say is this:
Microsoft wants to be the Netflix of games before NETFLIX can become the Netflix of games.
There we go. I did it. No thread required.
Isn't it more about the fact that Microsoft always lose out to Sony, because they don't have enough studios / games that they can make exclusives to their platform.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.
Those are option agreements, so there is no guarantee that those projects will be approved or go ahead. It would probably take something like £50 billion to bring all of those proposals into use.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 35m Sorry to go on about this, but his explanation makes no sense. We all know what a work meeting looks like. Under the laws he imposed there was no such thing allowed as a "work event", socialising with colleagues. Thousands were fined for breaking rules. It was all over the news.
Afternoon everyone. Still think a lot's riding on PMQ's tomorrow. If, and it's an enormous if, he can ride it out, he's probably there for a while.
When's the Sue Gray report due? I thought Thursday.
What qualifies as "riding it out"? He burbles nonsense for 30 minutes every week as it is. What will be fascinating is the level of sycophancy from the planted questions.
Scott appears to have pasted his last although Leon unbanned?
Oooh, have their been ructions whilst I've been at work?
Probably the last person on this site to have heard about the Beth Rigby interview. Am I right in my assumption that Johnson's excuse is now that he genuinely thought that the party with a buffet and booze was a work event, and that - crucially - nobody told him that the party was a party, so therefore (having demonstrated that he is too stupid to recognise that a party is a party) his bad advisors are to blame and he's in the clear? Good grief.
Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.
Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.
This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.
Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
You mean, the fact that Alex Salmond is rap...errr...I...mean...ra...ther good at chess.
In Scotland its more jigsaws you need to be very careful about. They can get you locked up.
I'm pretty sure it's now* or never for Rishi Sunak. For the reasons cited below, very soon he will also be pretty toxic.
Since I'm also now pretty sure the Conservatives won't get a working majority in 2024, leader of the Opposition after 14 yrs in power isn't going to be a position of strength from which to rise again. William Hague suffered from being the right guy at the wrong time and I think the same would happen to Sunak.
Now or never.
*Now = in the next two months before the fiscal and financial sh*t hits our fans.
He might not even get elected Opposition Leader.
After all David Miliband lost the Labour leadership to Ed Miliband after the 2010 Labour general election defeat
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 35m Sorry to go on about this, but his explanation makes no sense. We all know what a work meeting looks like. Under the laws he imposed there was no such thing allowed as a "work event", socialising with colleagues. Thousands were fined for breaking rules. It was all over the news.
Absolutely, we all know exactly what work meetings look like.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
Seriously? Anyone in a sensitive job is handed a bin liner and escorted round his desk and out the door. This job is the most sensitive in the UK.
Anyone else seen that New Zealand quietly closed their borders last night Aaron Dahmen @dahmenaaron On Twitter, at 7.47pm on a Tuesday night, the country of New Zealand effectively shuts its border. No one, other than those with an MIQ room already secured/emergency allocations, can come home. And there’s no fixed end date. Inconceivable.
You can't travel without an MIQ quarantine room booked so unless you've already got one allocated you aren't going back to New Zealand for a (long) while.
Wow. I knew people who were sofa-surfing for months waiting to get back to NZ. I think they all made it back eventually, but feel very sorry for anyone who has family there or who has left the country on urgent business.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Scott appears to have pasted his last although Leon unbanned?
Oooh, have their been ructions whilst I've been at work?
Probably the last person on this site to have heard about the Beth Rigby interview. Am I right in my assumption that Johnson's excuse is now that he genuinely thought that the party with a buffet and booze was a work event, and that - crucially - nobody told him that the party was a party, so therefore (having demonstrated that he is too stupid to recognise that a party is a party) his bad advisors are to blame and he's in the clear? Good grief.
Yes, except that he takes full responsibility. That's why he's blaming it on his advisers not telling him.
Comments
So obviously a lie that it is insulting.
I guess only war with Russia can save him now.
SeanT, Bryonic, Fitz, eadric, LadyG, Leon… and now Vlad.
I think he will stay until the MPs get enough spine to push him out
It was sixth most played track on our Spotify 2021
A group of inmates at a jail in the US state of Arkansas are taking legal action, saying they were unknowingly prescribed the horse deworming drug Ivermectin to treat Covid-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60037173
Ivermectin is a human medicine and been given billions of times to humans. NOW, if it works for COVID, well, that's a different matter, the evidence suggests no. But the lazy "its horse dewormer" is Fake news. There is a horse dewormer paste which contains that some idiots in the US were buying and taking, but this kind of crap reporting doesn't help the story.
They mention it further down the piece, but FFS, get it right from the start. Getting basic shit like this wrong just aids the weirdos and conspiracy theorist.
I don't imagine the Government will do that, but there are a range of options available beyond law or no law.
Actually on reflection they'd ideally like him to cancel the tax increases and convert them into spending cuts instead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tmDBFdO_5k
The best idea he's had lately was disappearing. But he couldn't even keep that up.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60034013
Since I'm also now pretty sure the Conservatives won't get a working majority in 2024, leader of the Opposition after 14 yrs in power isn't going to be a position of strength from which to rise again. William Hague suffered from being the right guy at the wrong time and I think the same would happen to Sunak.
Now or never.
*Now = in the next two months before the fiscal and financial sh*t hits our fans.
Thinking of prior VONCs, I think he will be closer to Corbyn's MP backing in 2016 (18.8%) than he will to May's 2018 backing (63.1%). So, I'm saying sub 40.5% in that, let's say sub 40%.
What might be a tad embarrassing, (but mainly for Boris rather than anyone else) will be if the amount of support for him goes below the level of the front bench payroll. I guess everyone will just smile a sheepish smile and say, Oh, well!
I mean, not everyone going public, not everyone having to resign for thinking privately Boris should go - that is why the system is designed as it is surely? Collective responsibility is about the government more than individuals, and if an ousting looms a minister is in his rights to sit in post and await the results whilst settling on a form of wording around the goverent line that they can be comfortable with.
https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-offshore-wind-leasing-delivers-major-boost-to-scotlands-net-zero-aspirations
* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.
They still don't.
So, literally, they were unable to copy undisputed facts (such as which bank was doing the finance) from an emailed press release to their 3 liner....
Still think a lot's riding on PMQ's tomorrow. If, and it's an enormous if, he can ride it out, he's probably there for a while.
When's the Sue Gray report due? I thought Thursday.
Surely there is something Starmer can do to save him? Maybe tomorrow's PMQs....?
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=john+lennon+nobody+told+me&docid=608004736086391556&mid=1929B1E540139158631E1929B1E540139158631E&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=/videos/search?q=John%20Lennon%20Song%20No%20Body%20Told%20Me%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=john%20lennon%20song%20no%20body%20told%20me%20lyrics&sc=0-39&sk=&cvid=268B0410849E4DC39AA553D4D83C99B2
Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.
This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.
Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
"No I don't!"
Of course, a situation where one of Cummings and Johnson must be telling the truth is a bit unstoppable force/immovable object. Only in reverse.
Also, I have just discovered that Aldous Huxley taught George Orwell at Eton.
every day is a school day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnMMYJKZvnU
Ashley Sparkles🎙
@AshleyEsqueda
I think all I need to say is this:
Microsoft wants to be the Netflix of games before NETFLIX can become the Netflix of games.
There we go. I did it. No thread required.
So I am running out of time as a predictor of events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA
My PS4 is louder than my car at idle.
Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
·
6m
latest polling from
@SavantaComRes
over half (56%) say that Britain won’t forgive Johnson even if he resigned, including over two in five 2019 Conservative voters (43%)
@iainmartin1
·
35m
Sorry to go on about this, but his explanation makes no sense. We all know what a work meeting looks like. Under the laws he imposed there was no such thing allowed as a "work event", socialising with colleagues. Thousands were fined for breaking rules. It was all over the news.
He burbles nonsense for 30 minutes every week as it is.
What will be fascinating is the level of sycophancy from the planted questions.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10414109/Chilly-Matt-Ex-minister-Hancock-43-strips-bracing-dip-Serpentine.html
Probably the last person on this site to have heard about the Beth Rigby interview. Am I right in my assumption that Johnson's excuse is now that he genuinely thought that the party with a buffet and booze was a work event, and that - crucially - nobody told him that the party was a party, so therefore (having demonstrated that he is too stupid to recognise that a party is a party) his bad advisors are to blame and he's in the clear? Good grief.
After all David Miliband lost the Labour leadership to Ed Miliband after the 2010 Labour general election defeat
Lockdown breaking is far from flavour of the month, and no one wants to be reminded of covid
Many of my work meetings look like this
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation;
2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and
3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.