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Latest next Tory leader betting on the Smarkets exchange – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Heathener said:

    “Nobody warned me drinks event was against rules” says man who made the rules and lectured Nation on them.

    WHAT? 🤷‍♀️

    It's utterly ridiculous, isn't it?

    For how much longer must we endure this horseshit?
    Domninic Cummings said that BJ was warned

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895

    I imagine that he was answering that charge.
    Didnt Johnson send Oliver Dowden out on to the nations TV screens at 5pm that very evening to remind everyone of the v strict rules?

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    Scott_xP said:

    No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today.
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140

    They need enough to make him lose the VONC.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    One for Malcolmg. Just had an email flash up on my screen claiming to be from Donald J Trump. Seen in my peripheral vision only, my brain interpreted it as Donald J Turnip.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂

    Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?

    Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
    Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.

    and others since

    But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
    Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.

    Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.

    Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2022
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today.
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140

    They need enough to make him lose the VONC.
    How stupid is your average Tory MP if other MPs think 50+% of them will vote to keep Boris on for a year when the other option is to get rid of him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Heathener said:

    “Nobody warned me drinks event was against rules” says man who made the rules and lectured Nation on them.

    WHAT? 🤷‍♀️

    It's utterly ridiculous, isn't it?

    For how much longer must we endure this horseshit?
    Domninic Cummings said that BJ was warned

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895

    I imagine that he was answering that charge.
    Didnt Johnson send Oliver Dowden out on to the nations TV screens at 5pm that very evening to remind everyone of the v strict rules?

    Johnson didn't see it, he was allegedly at a party, so how could he possibly know.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
    You are better off not knowing....especially any of their live work.
  • Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.

    An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.

    *It is.
    Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
    PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
    Yes, You need to read the rules carefully, but in general the Leadership markets will exclude a temporary or acting leader, whereas the PM markets are settled as you say on the simple fact of who is PM, which is not ambiguous. The only problem is that some bookies muddy the waters by saying something like 'Acting PM will not count', but my understanding is that that refers to something like Raab taking over whilst Boris was in hospital, rather than a PM who has agreed to stand down once a contest is complete.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    I have to say - if the news is correct - I’m surprised at how quickly the possible end of Johnson has come about.

    Mind you, that interview was bloody awful. Everything he says and does makes it worse
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
    You are better off not knowing....especially any of their live work.
    Imagine a less tuneful James Blunt without even his quips on twitter.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    eek said:

    The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's so different in style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period, maybe.

    It’s impossible to say. The public might just take to mr smooth regardless what problems he is struggling with. Some politicians just more Teflon than others, he strikes me as one of them.

    Some of this Great Depression stuff on the horizon i’m thinking might be slightly bigged up. The financial media increasingly reckon high inflation will be short lived, growth is good and may continue with post covid rebound, credit crunch may not be without government mitigation, such as give money to energy suppliers so they don’t have to charge so much.
    If the financial media are saying high inflation is shorted live - my assumption based on 50 years of experience is that stagflation here we go.
    Cheeky Eeky 🙂
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    eek said:

    Vlad said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    I think he said a public figure had a different sexual orientation than their publicity and life circumstances would suggest

    Given his butt plug crafting, you might say we have lost one impaler but gained another. Net standstill.
    Seems a bit harsh, why not just delete and issue a site-wide warning, but then I'm just a....... manufacturer of wickerwork manginas who lives in a windmill, what do I know
    Now I'm not saying that Vlad is the 6th reincarnation of SeanT - but the back story does need some work - it's less plausible than the coincides in a S K Tremayne novel
    It's only a caretaker reincarnation.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    It was pathetic. He has the air of a naughty schoolboy who knows you know he's lying but is hoping against insurmountable odds that "something will turn up."
    He's like a latter day Billy Bunter, but without the charm.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    eek said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.

    All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?

    It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.

    I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
    Oh I suspect Sunak will be dispensing with a lot of dead wood - he has a lot to fix if he wants to see past 2023 /24.
    And replacing it with?
    There is precious little on the back benches. Boris sacked them and de selected them.
    They are the never wases and the newly elected.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂

    Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?

    Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
    Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.

    and others since

    But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
    Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.

    Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.

    Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
    In April he's going to be mega millionaire ex-banker imposing swingeing tax increases on ordinary brits just as fuel prices rocket and inflation bites.

    Negative enough for you?
  • eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
    You are better off not knowing....especially any of their live work.
    Imagine a less tuneful James Blunt without even his quips on twitter.
    Can't fault Blunters twitter game though.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.

    An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.

    *It is.
    Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
    PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
    Yes, You need to read the rules carefully, but in general the Leadership markets will exclude a temporary or acting leader, whereas the PM markets are settled as you say on the simple fact of who is PM, which is not ambiguous. The only problem is that some bookies muddy the waters by saying something like 'Acting PM will not count', but my understanding is that that refers to something like Raab taking over whilst Boris was in hospital, rather than a PM who has agreed to stand down once a contest is complete.
    There is no role as to 'acting PM'. I think it's impossible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Seems Johnson doubling down on the line that he thought he was attending a work event.

    So obviously a lie that it is insulting.

    I guess only war with Russia can save him now.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Whoa! Scott has been banned for saying Radiohead are talentless hacks! Personally I have always regarded Radiohead as world leader in avante-garde music for funerals and other morbid events requiring caterwauling and nails-on-blackboard stuff. There is definitely talent there, but not one I would spend any money on.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.

    All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?

    It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.

    I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
    Oh I suspect Sunak will be dispensing with a lot of dead wood - he has a lot to fix if he wants to see past 2023 /24.
    And replacing it with?
    There is precious little on the back benches. Boris sacked them and de selected them.
    They are the never wases and the newly elected.
    Can the first he gets rid of be Patel?
  • Seems Johnson doubling down on the line that he thought he was attending a work event.

    So obviously a lie that it is insulting.

    I guess only war with Russia can save him now.

    It really is the equivalent of when the plod raid a knocking shop and catch some bloke with his trousers around his ankles being serviced by a lady of the night and they claim, no officer, I got lost and I called on this establishment to ask for directions and the reason I didn't have my trousers on was the nice lady gave me a drink and i spilled it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂

    Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?

    Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
    Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.

    and others since

    But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
    Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.

    Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.

    Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
    In April he's going to be mega millionaire ex-banker imposing swingeing tax increases on ordinary brits just as fuel prices rocket and inflation bites.

    Negative enough for you?
    At least that's normal politics and not the shitshow of lies, corruption and foolishness that is current set-up.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    A very warm welcome to the site to Vlad!

    Lol.

    So very, very transparent.

    SeanT, Bryonic, Fitz, eadric, LadyG, Leon… and now Vlad.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    I have to say - if the news is correct - I’m surprised at how quickly the possible end of Johnson has come about.

    Mind you, that interview was bloody awful. Everything he says and does makes it worse

    It is not as quick as some thought. There was a bunch of people on here last week saying Boris would be gone before the weekend was out and here we are on Tuesday...

    I think he will stay until the MPs get enough spine to push him out
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
    Creep is a belting track.

    It was sixth most played track on our Spotify 2021
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Seems Johnson doubling down on the line that he thought he was attending a work event.

    So obviously a lie that it is insulting.

    I guess only war with Russia can save him now.

    Don't give Johnson ideas!
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    maaarsh said:

    English hospital beds occupied falling in every region, so we are almost certainly past peak deaths by specimen date, and they are going to have peaked at less than half the bottom of the 600-6000 range.

    Less than the bottom of the 600-6000 range yes, almost certainly. but not necessarily less than half.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,171
    maaarsh said:

    Reading today’s Times, there’s a much softer line on the masks. Says there’s a discussion going on as to whether to drop Plan B entirely (including masks) or just the WFH and vaxports bit.

    “The debate now is whether to separate things out or do it all as a package,” one source said.

    As keeping masks would require a new bill, I think it will be very hard for the government to do.

    So HY may end up having to change his opinion to ensure it aligns with government policy.

    3rd sentence is the reason the reports about dropping the rest and keeping masks were always likely to be bilge briefed out by civil servants who want to keep this going.

    Boris does not have anywhere near the political capital for another triple figure rebellion, and there is no way to keep masks without one.
    Government could let the legal structure lapse, but still promote masks through public health guidance, even sticking a decent budget behind a comms campaign, and indeed through their own behaviour. There's an argument that the appropriate thing to do is to withdraw legal requirements, but still stress the value of the behaviour, just as smoking remains legal, but is very clearly advised against.

    I don't imagine the Government will do that, but there are a range of options available beyond law or no law.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    edited January 2022
    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂

    Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?

    Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
    Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.

    and others since

    But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
    Mordaunt the one who delivered one of the most embarrassing foreign policy talks ever a few weeks ago to the Americans. Remember, the one where she described Brexit as war with the EU and that the US needs to pick sides. Up till then I'd thought she was moderately acceptable but this ruined it.

    Tugendhat doesn't stand a chance of course, but in the event of things going ugly in Ukraine he's the one out of that lot I'd be happiest to be in charge.

    Going to be Sunak though. There simply aren't enough negatives about him yet to make conservatives vote for a dark horse.
    In April he's going to be mega millionaire ex-banker imposing swingeing tax increases on ordinary brits just as fuel prices rocket and inflation bites.

    Negative enough for you?
    Yes, if he doesn't chicken out of the tax increases. But the electorate we're talking about here is the conservative party members. That would be a net positive. A return to Thatcherite rigour.

    Actually on reflection they'd ideally like him to cancel the tax increases and convert them into spending cuts instead.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Today's song of the day: "Nobody Told Me" by Australian band The Monitors, from 1981.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tmDBFdO_5k
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Just caught the interview.
    The best idea he's had lately was disappearing. But he couldn't even keep that up.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    "Two former Downing Street officials told the BBC they remember Mr Cummings telling them that day he had warned the prime minister not to go ahead."

    Added to @BethRigby's "source inside No. 10", four people now recall events differently to the PM. ~ AA


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895

    Could be some double counting in there
  • Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)
  • Shocked I tell you, shocked...They clearly been watching Silicon Valley tv show.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60034013
  • Cookie said:

    Have we done this one yet? Made me laugh. Prince Andrew commemorative 50p piece.



    Nominally 50p but actually not worth a brass farthing.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    edited January 2022
    I'm pretty sure it's now* or never for Rishi Sunak. For the reasons cited below, very soon he will also be pretty toxic.

    Since I'm also now pretty sure the Conservatives won't get a working majority in 2024, leader of the Opposition after 14 yrs in power isn't going to be a position of strength from which to rise again. William Hague suffered from being the right guy at the wrong time and I think the same would happen to Sunak.

    Now or never.

    *Now = in the next two months before the fiscal and financial sh*t hits our fans.
  • Seems Johnson doubling down on the line that he thought he was attending a work event.

    So obviously a lie that it is insulting.

    I guess only war with Russia can save him now.

    Don't give Johnson ideas!
    I fear he is way ahead of you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Scott_xP said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (13-14 Jan)

    Lab: 39% (-1 from 12-13 Jan)
    Con: 31% (+2)
    Lib Dem: 11% (n/c)
    Green: 6% (n/c)
    Reform UK: 5% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (n/c)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/18/voting-intention-con-31-lab-39-13-14-jan?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=VI https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1483457163980947456/photo/1

    SCons behind SLab again.

    17% vs 18%

    Whoever manages to secure the spot as the principal Unionist party earns a heap of tactical votes. The SCons are about to receive a triple-whammy:

    - slipping behind SLab and thereby losing a shedload of anti-SNP tactical votes
    - tactical unwind as SLDs desert Boris’s Brexit Party
    - decent centre-right folk simply abstaining
    Not really. In most of Scotland there is no real competition between Labour and the Tories. Labour is trying to recover seats in the central belt, the Tories in the borders, the North east and, possibly some of the lower highlands. Tactical voting will continue. Only in Edinburgh is there room for much confusion and a splitting of the vote.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today.
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140

    They need enough to make him lose the VONC.
    I honestly think any VONC is in the bag, I don't see where support in a secret ballot would come from.

    Thinking of prior VONCs, I think he will be closer to Corbyn's MP backing in 2016 (18.8%) than he will to May's 2018 backing (63.1%). So, I'm saying sub 40.5% in that, let's say sub 40%.

    What might be a tad embarrassing, (but mainly for Boris rather than anyone else) will be if the amount of support for him goes below the level of the front bench payroll. I guess everyone will just smile a sheepish smile and say, Oh, well!

    I mean, not everyone going public, not everyone having to resign for thinking privately Boris should go - that is why the system is designed as it is surely? Collective responsibility is about the government more than individuals, and if an ousting looms a minister is in his rights to sit in post and await the results whilst settling on a form of wording around the goverent line that they can be comfortable with.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    I missed this yesterday. Nearly 25* GW of new offshore wind projects around Scotland. Good news.

    https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-offshore-wind-leasing-delivers-major-boost-to-scotlands-net-zero-aspirations

    * That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.
  • moonshine said:

    Two years ago today nobody knew who Emma Raducanu was. No one normal knew who Rishi Sunak was. Or Chris Witty. Extraordinary really.

    And nobody knew who Leon was.

    They still don't.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    Jakarta has been described as "sinking" in some reports. Is it a global warming thing? Are they expecting more floods?
  • moonshine said:

    Two years ago today nobody knew who Emma Raducanu was. No one normal knew who Rishi Sunak was. Or Chris Witty. Extraordinary really.

    And nobody knew who Leon was.

    They still don't.
    International man of mystery...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2022
    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.

    An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.

    *It is.
    Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
    PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
    Yes, You need to read the rules carefully, but in general the Leadership markets will exclude a temporary or acting leader, whereas the PM markets are settled as you say on the simple fact of who is PM, which is not ambiguous. The only problem is that some bookies muddy the waters by saying something like 'Acting PM will not count', but my understanding is that that refers to something like Raab taking over whilst Boris was in hospital, rather than a PM who has agreed to stand down once a contest is complete.
    There is no role as to 'acting PM'. I think it's impossible.
    Yes, exactly, which is why you need to be a bit wary if the bookie seems to think there is. Ladbrokes until a few days ago said 'Acting PM or similar will not count', but I see they've now removed that, I think following a request for clarification by Alastair Meeks. William Hill still say: "Next Permanent Prime Minister after Boris Johnson. Others on request. Acting PM does not count."
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    FFS BBC....

    A group of inmates at a jail in the US state of Arkansas are taking legal action, saying they were unknowingly prescribed the horse deworming drug Ivermectin to treat Covid-19.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60037173

    Ivermectin is a human medicine and been given billions of times to humans. NOW, if it works for COVID, well, that's a different matter, the evidence suggests no. But the lazy "its horse dewormer" is Fake news. There is a horse dewormer paste which contains that some idiots in the US were buying and taking, but this kind of crap reporting doesn't help the story.

    They mention it further down the piece, but FFS, get it right from the start. Getting basic shit like this wrong just aids the weirdos and conspiracy theorist.

    I still treasure an FT article relating to a startup I worked for. It was a 3 liner in the City news section. Each of the 3 sentences contained multiple mistakes. The information had been given to them in a press release.

    So, literally, they were unable to copy undisputed facts (such as which bank was doing the finance) from an emailed press release to their 3 liner....
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2022
    Chameleon said:

    'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

    Weeks ago - you would have thought that on May 20th he would remember what he said on May 10th and 11th.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    I understand that Jakarta is becoming something of an environmental catastrophe. It’s sinking because of an overuse of groundwater and the sea wall won’t cope for much longer. There’s also an element of “levelling up” - seeking to redistribute economic activity elsewhere.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,789

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Wasn’t Stuart Dickson exiled for half a decade to SwedishPoliticalWagers.com for citing Scottish subsamples?

    An egregious crime, admittedly.
    A whole Scottish generation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Afternoon everyone.
    Still think a lot's riding on PMQ's tomorrow. If, and it's an enormous if, he can ride it out, he's probably there for a while.

    When's the Sue Gray report due? I thought Thursday.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is it PMQ as usual tom?

    Agony if yes.

    Mr Johnson might feel he is running a temperature and have a bit of a cough tomorrow.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    One of the reasons often quoted is bad building practice and serious resultant land subsidence in substantial parts of Jakarta, and possible loss of significant parts of the city into the sea.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Afternoon everyone.
    Still think a lot's riding on PMQ's tomorrow. If, and it's an enormous if, he can ride it out, he's probably there for a while.

    When's the Sue Gray report due? I thought Thursday.

    “Did the Prime Minister read the rules his government imposed on England?”
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
    Creep is a belting track.

    It was sixth most played track on our Spotify 2021
    Pablo Honey, in general, is an underrated album.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    edited January 2022
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Wasn’t Stuart Dickson exiled for half a decade to SwedishPoliticalWagers.com for citing Scottish subsamples?

    An egregious crime, admittedly.
    A whole Scottish generation.
    Wrong PBScot IIRC.
  • I'm reminded that Boris Johnson categorically denied having an affair with Petronella Wyatt.

    UK PM Boris Johnson "categorically" denies anyone warned him the No 10 drinks party broke lockdown rules

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1483428767024431110

    "I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Afternoon everyone.
    Still think a lot's riding on PMQ's tomorrow. If, and it's an enormous if, he can ride it out, he's probably there for a while.

    When's the Sue Gray report due? I thought Thursday.

    It's supposedly delayed which isn't surprising given that every time she gets near to finishing it something else appears.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Is it PMQ as usual tom?

    Agony if yes.

    Mr Johnson might feel he is running a temperature and have a bit of a cough tomorrow.
    It must be in the Tory parties interests to be rid of Johnson now.

    Surely there is something Starmer can do to save him? Maybe tomorrow's PMQs....?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

    I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Afternoon everyone.
    Still think a lot's riding on PMQ's tomorrow. If, and it's an enormous if, he can ride it out, he's probably there for a while.

    When's the Sue Gray report due? I thought Thursday.

    Thursday...May 2nd, 2024
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,395
    Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.

    Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.

    This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.

    Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
    "Juneau the capital of Alaska?"

    "No I don't!"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
    Creep is a belting track.

    It was sixth most played track on our Spotify 2021
    Pablo Honey, in general, is an underrated album.
    Particularly by the band themselves
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Chameleon said:

    'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

    It's not an excuse; he's just accusing Cummings of lying when he says Johnson was told.

    Of course, a situation where one of Cummings and Johnson must be telling the truth is a bit unstoppable force/immovable object. Only in reverse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Sadly, Boris Johnson had a Zoom call earlier today with a contact who has since tested positive for Covid. Under the government's new strict isolation rules, this means he will unfortunately be unable to attend Prime Ministers Questions tomorrow.

    Pulling the I got COVID line would seem most advisable and be somewhat believable (in a Novax way) given he is never out of vaccines centres....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    I'm reminded that Boris Johnson categorically denied having an affair with Petronella Wyatt.

    UK PM Boris Johnson "categorically" denies anyone warned him the No 10 drinks party broke lockdown rules

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1483428767024431110

    "I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
    I thought that - as the affair was ongoing - the statement was true, if misleading.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
    Creep is a belting track.

    It was sixth most played track on our Spotify 2021
    Pablo Honey, in general, is an underrated album.
    Not a huge Radiohead fan, but can recognize its musicality and originality. Far prefer you other recommendation, Robert - Leftfield. Tourism is looping in my car atm.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,395
    stjohn said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

    I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
    I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
    "Juneau the capital of Alaska?"

    "No I don't!"
    Actually I didn't, always thought it was Anchorage

    Also, I have just discovered that Aldous Huxley taught George Orwell at Eton.

    every day is a school day
  • Interview with Professor Cyrille Cohen, head of Immunology at Bar Ilan University and a member of the advisory committee for vaccines for the Israeli Government

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnMMYJKZvnU
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited January 2022

    Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.

    Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.

    This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.

    Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.

    You mean, the fact that Alex Salmond is rap...errr...I...mean...ra...ther good at chess.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm reminded that Boris Johnson categorically denied having an affair with Petronella Wyatt.

    UK PM Boris Johnson "categorically" denies anyone warned him the No 10 drinks party broke lockdown rules

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1483428767024431110

    "I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
    I thought that - as the affair was ongoing - the statement was true, if misleading.
    A terminological exactitude.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Going back to MS's Activision purchase - this is probably all you need to know

    Ashley Sparkles🎙
    @AshleyEsqueda
    I think all I need to say is this:

    Microsoft wants to be the Netflix of games before NETFLIX can become the Netflix of games.

    There we go. I did it. No thread required.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
    I thought that was Jamaica.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Scott appears to have pasted his last although Leon unbanned?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    I have to say - if the news is correct - I’m surprised at how quickly the possible end of Johnson has come about.

    Mind you, that interview was bloody awful. Everything he says and does makes it worse

    It is not as quick as some thought. There was a bunch of people on here last week saying Boris would be gone before the weekend was out and here we are on Tuesday...

    I think he will stay until the MPs get enough spine to push him out
    I think I said he would be gone before PMQs this Wednesday. I couldn't see him facing Starmer after it was revealed they bought a special fridge as there was so much partying going on.

    So I am running out of time as a predictor of events.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    IshmaelZ said:

    Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants :)

    They are fed up of "No, she went of her own accord" jokes.
    I thought that was Jamaica.
    Yes, the repost to Jakarta? is "no, she went by jumbo Jet"
  • eek said:

    Going back to MS's Activision purchase - this is probably all you need to know

    Ashley Sparkles🎙
    @AshleyEsqueda
    I think all I need to say is this:

    Microsoft wants to be the Netflix of games before NETFLIX can become the Netflix of games.

    There we go. I did it. No thread required.

    Isn't it more about the fact that Microsoft always lose out to Sony, because they don't have enough studios / games that they can make exclusives to their platform.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    eek said:

    Going back to MS's Activision purchase - this is probably all you need to know

    Ashley Sparkles🎙
    @AshleyEsqueda
    I think all I need to say is this:

    Microsoft wants to be the Netflix of games before NETFLIX can become the Netflix of games.

    There we go. I did it. No thread required.

    I have to say it does push me to the X-box camp before now buying a PS5.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    stjohn said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

    I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
    I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
    My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    IshmaelZ said:

    Is it PMQ as usual tom?

    Agony if yes.

    Mr Johnson might feel he is running a temperature and have a bit of a cough tomorrow.
    It must be in the Tory parties interests to be rid of Johnson now.

    Surely there is something Starmer can do to save him? Maybe tomorrow's PMQs....?
    Good question. Maybe Starmer should table a VONC in the government to force all the Tory MPs to line up and be counted behind Johnson.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,789

    eek said:

    Going back to MS's Activision purchase - this is probably all you need to know

    Ashley Sparkles🎙
    @AshleyEsqueda
    I think all I need to say is this:

    Microsoft wants to be the Netflix of games before NETFLIX can become the Netflix of games.

    There we go. I did it. No thread required.

    I have to say it does push me to the X-box camp before now buying a PS5.
    Crossplay though?

    My PS4 is louder than my car at idle.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    kinabalu said:
    That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    6m
    latest polling from
    @SavantaComRes


    over half (56%) say that Britain won’t forgive Johnson even if he resigned, including over two in five 2019 Conservative voters (43%)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    I missed this yesterday. Nearly 25* GW of new offshore wind projects around Scotland. Good news.

    https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-offshore-wind-leasing-delivers-major-boost-to-scotlands-net-zero-aspirations

    * That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.

    Those are option agreements, so there is no guarantee that those projects will be approved or go ahead. It would probably take something like £50 billion to bring all of those proposals into use.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Is Hancock at 170 worth a [betting] nibble as a trading bet?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Pro_Rata said:

    stjohn said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

    I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
    I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
    My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
    His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    35m
    Sorry to go on about this, but his explanation makes no sense. We all know what a work meeting looks like. Under the laws he imposed there was no such thing allowed as a "work event", socialising with colleagues. Thousands were fined for breaking rules. It was all over the news.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Is Hancock at 170 worth a [betting] nibble as a trading bet?

    Fuck no
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited January 2022

    Afternoon everyone.
    Still think a lot's riding on PMQ's tomorrow. If, and it's an enormous if, he can ride it out, he's probably there for a while.

    When's the Sue Gray report due? I thought Thursday.

    What qualifies as "riding it out"?
    He burbles nonsense for 30 minutes every week as it is.
    What will be fascinating is the level of sycophancy from the planted questions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Is Hancock at 170 worth a [betting] nibble as a trading bet?

    He has been taking icy swims to show he has still got it

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10414109/Chilly-Matt-Ex-minister-Hancock-43-strips-bracing-dip-Serpentine.html
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    I missed this yesterday. Nearly 25* GW of new offshore wind projects around Scotland. Good news.

    https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-offshore-wind-leasing-delivers-major-boost-to-scotlands-net-zero-aspirations

    * That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.

    So that means 25GW of dispatchable generation with availability contracts to fire up when the wind doesn't blow.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    DougSeal said:

    Scott appears to have pasted his last although Leon unbanned?

    Oooh, have their been ructions whilst I've been at work?

    Probably the last person on this site to have heard about the Beth Rigby interview. Am I right in my assumption that Johnson's excuse is now that he genuinely thought that the party with a buffet and booze was a work event, and that - crucially - nobody told him that the party was a party, so therefore (having demonstrated that he is too stupid to recognise that a party is a party) his bad advisors are to blame and he's in the clear? Good grief.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    rcs1000 said:

    Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.

    Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.

    This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.

    Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.

    You mean, the fact that Alex Salmond is rap...errr...I...mean...ra...ther good at chess.
    In Scotland its more jigsaws you need to be very careful about. They can get you locked up.
This discussion has been closed.