Latest next Tory leader betting on the Smarkets exchange – politicalbetting.com

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Chameleon said:

'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

Time for a bit of John Lennon:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=john+lennon+nobody+told+me&docid=608004736086391556&mid=1929B1E540139158631E1929B1E540139158631E&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=/videos/search?q=John%20Lennon%20Song%20No%20Body%20Told%20Me%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=john%20lennon%20song%20no%20body%20told%20me%20lyrics&sc=0-39&sk=&cvid=268B0410849E4DC39AA553D4D83C99B2

Complemented by this one (the public speaking this time) -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA

That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.

Chameleon said:

Benpointer said:

@Leon looks unbanned to me on Vanilla. Not that he's posted since yesterday mind.

Looks like he spent an afternoon sinbinned, which given the potential legal issues around the topic was very justified.

StuartDickson said:

A BBC journalist just referred to 51% in an opinion poll as “a vast, vast majority”. Where do they find these people?

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

Benpointer said:

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Pro_Rata said:

Burgessian said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

And there's bound to be more coming out.

So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

Comments?

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.

My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.

His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.

No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.

It'd need pebbledash to hide *that* wallpaper.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eabhal, PS5 is dramatically quieter than the PS4 (thankfully).

Stocky said:

MISTY said:

The tory backbenchers have some wins to bank on covid freedoms and they may decide that they don't want the publicity of a leadership election getting in the way of those.

It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him, many of whom are for the chop anyway.

Seriously, the MPs may think that's enough for now.

Competition: We should have our best guess at the month a new permanent leader is in place.

I'm going with April.

Stuartinromford said:

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:

1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation;
2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and
3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.

1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.

2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning

3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.

Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.

May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.

Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?

Eabhal said:

SandyRentool said:

LostPassword said:

I missed this yesterday. Nearly 25* GW of new offshore wind projects around Scotland. Good news.

https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-offshore-wind-leasing-delivers-major-boost-to-scotlands-net-zero-aspirations

* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.

So that means 25GW of dispatchable generation with availability contracts to fire up when the wind doesn't blow.

This is a really interesting issue from an Indyref2 perspective.

25GW is roughly what the UK is burning in fossil fuels for electricity at the moment, so Scotland can become an energy powerhouse (again) once this is developed. Consider the switch to electric cars and away from boilers.

England needs to match that kind of offshore wind development to fend off a new surge of energy-nationalism - "we don't need the Scots".

The SNP are quite nuclear-averse, too, so having a few new reactors in pocket will be very important for countering that argument.

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

LostPassword said:

I missed this yesterday. Nearly 25* GW of new offshore wind projects around Scotland. Good news.

https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-offshore-wind-leasing-delivers-major-boost-to-scotlands-net-zero-aspirations

* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.

So that means 25GW of dispatchable generation with availability contracts to fire up when the wind doesn't blow.

If we overbuild our wind capacity, we'll have a higher baseline. More wind power potential is a good thing for the UK.

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.

Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.

This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.

Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.

That’s a bit of a setback given that you usually praise her attack lines.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The 5.00 clock news is appalling for Boris and he has PMQs tomorrow

How about him making a statement at 12 noon to the house that he got things wrong, accepts his responsibility, and will formally resign from office as soon as his successor is appointed by his party

If would be most unexpected but better than being dragged through vonc and months of angst with the inevitable still happening

Nigel_Foremain said:

Stuartinromford said:

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:

1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation;
2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and
3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.

1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.

2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning

3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.

Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.

May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.

Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?

Johnson's inevitable demise and the massive damage he has done to the Conservative Party is one of the least enjoyable "I told you so"s I have ever had.

CarlottaVance said:

EXCL: Whitehall enforcer Sue Gray WILL interview Dominic Cummings over his explosive party claims.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1483488255953846272?s=20

IshmaelZ said:

Stuartinromford said:

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:

1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation;
2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and
3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.

1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.

2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning

3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.

Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.

May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.

Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?

That's a good question. @ydoethur will tell us

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh FFS.

The person charged with making sense of it all — and who has been given the power of judge and jury — is of course Gray. Politicians on both sides of the divide have raised her reputation to that of near mythical status.

Yet when her report arrives it may disappoint. Her terms of reference are limited and do not require her to pass judgment or make a determination on who is and isn’t telling the truth. It does not even mandate her to search Downing Street emails or WhatsApp messages in her quest for evidence.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-has-dominic-cummings-delivered-the-fatal-blow-7xl0prj07

Wasn't that pointed out some time ago by Cyclefree?

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Chameleon said:

'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

Time for a bit of John Lennon:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=john+lennon+nobody+told+me&docid=608004736086391556&mid=1929B1E540139158631E1929B1E540139158631E&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=/videos/search?q=John%20Lennon%20Song%20No%20Body%20Told%20Me%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=john%20lennon%20song%20no%20body%20told%20me%20lyrics&sc=0-39&sk=&cvid=268B0410849E4DC39AA553D4D83C99B2

Complemented by this one (the public speaking this time) -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA

That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).

Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.

This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.

I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.

John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January.
I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.

*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

SandyRentool said:

LostPassword said:

I missed this yesterday. Nearly 25* GW of new offshore wind projects around Scotland. Good news.

https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-offshore-wind-leasing-delivers-major-boost-to-scotlands-net-zero-aspirations

* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.

So that means 25GW of dispatchable generation with availability contracts to fire up when the wind doesn't blow.

This is a really interesting issue from an Indyref2 perspective.

25GW is roughly what the UK is burning in fossil fuels for electricity at the moment, so Scotland can become an energy powerhouse (again) once this is developed. Consider the switch to electric cars and away from boilers.

England needs to match that kind of offshore wind development to fend off a new surge of energy-nationalism - "we don't need the Scots".

The SNP are quite nuclear-averse, too, so having a few new reactors in pocket will be very important for countering that argument.

England (and Wales) needs a mixture, and to build as fast as humanly possible. Offshore wind in the Irish Sea and North Sea, more solar both commercial and residential after a lull in recent years - very useful in summer when the wind drops, tidal, and more investment in interconnectors. We should be aiming for surplus electricity. That's one of the best ways to wean the country off domestic gas.

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Chameleon said:

'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

Time for a bit of John Lennon:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=john+lennon+nobody+told+me&docid=608004736086391556&mid=1929B1E540139158631E1929B1E540139158631E&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=/videos/search?q=John%20Lennon%20Song%20No%20Body%20Told%20Me%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=john%20lennon%20song%20no%20body%20told%20me%20lyrics&sc=0-39&sk=&cvid=268B0410849E4DC39AA553D4D83C99B2

Complemented by this one (the public speaking this time) -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA

That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).

Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.

This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.

I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.

John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January.
I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.

*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Chameleon said:

'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.

Time for a bit of John Lennon:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=john+lennon+nobody+told+me&docid=608004736086391556&mid=1929B1E540139158631E1929B1E540139158631E&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=/videos/search?q=John%20Lennon%20Song%20No%20Body%20Told%20Me%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=john%20lennon%20song%20no%20body%20told%20me%20lyrics&sc=0-39&sk=&cvid=268B0410849E4DC39AA553D4D83C99B2

Complemented by this one (the public speaking this time) -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA

That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).

Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.

This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.

I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.

John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January.
I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.

*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.

I don't like that one either and I like Imagine even less. What I do like - even more now than originally - is Give Peace A Chance. And his other simple chanty one, All You Need Is Love, that I also like.

MISTY said:

It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him

CarlottaVance said:

Two British aircraft taking very different flight paths to Ukraine and back. The weapon transporting C-17s are avoiding Germany whilst a surveillance aircraft, an RC-135, is passing through....

The UK and Germany have effectively said "ahhh, but, Germany didn't deny overflight rights as the UK didn't even ask!". Fast forward to today and a British RC-135 surveillance flies through Germany, while a British C-17 transport aircraft avoids... one is carrying weapons.

https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1483475601273020423?s=20

rottenborough said:

Stuartinromford said:

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.

I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?

Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:

1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation;
2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and
3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.

1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.

2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning

3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.

Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.

May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.

Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?

"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."

On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.

Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.

Does Raab fit that?

Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).

We may be in for interesting times.

MoonRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

To be honest is it right for them to gather as a faction? What should be so different about them as any other Conservative elected MP in 2019? It’s easy to appreciate them meeting secretly together is going to rankle the others.

MoonRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll make them change their minds....being called f*cking nobodies.....

The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet

'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20

To be honest is it right for them to gather as a faction? What should be so different about them as any other Conservative elected MP in 2019? It’s easy to appreciate them meeting secretly together is going to rankle the others.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCL: Whitehall enforcer Sue Gray WILL interview Dominic Cummings over his explosive party claims.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1483488255953846272?s=20

Good

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris does go, his leaving drinks are going to be awkward.

If you get an invite could and you get to speak to the big man could you ask if Robert Thompson's been sacked? I think he's been treated shabbily.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bit more on this - group of about 20 of the 2019 intake have met a few times to talk about the overall situation, including, it's said how to defend PM if opposition parties force a vote of no confidence in the Commons

Two of their number suggest there may be a flurry of them submitting letters to Graham Brady tomorrow afternoon - that could rapidly change the situation for No 10 - however, it could also, easily melt away

The possible threat certainly ups the ante for PMQs tomorrow - a poor performance could convince more of them to act

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1483493359532584963