That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.
Why is she in the betting list, when none of the 'Spartans' are?
Surely a Baker or a Harper have a better chance of making the final 2? There's at least 52% of Tory MPs, members and public who are simple enough to vote for them...
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.
Completely OT, anyone got any insight on why Indonesia have decided to move their capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan - and whether it will annoy or delight Mastermind contestants
Jakarta is by orders of magnitude the biggest city on by orders of magnitude the most populous island of the archipelago - so a large part of the idea is "levelling up" - Jakarta will continue to flourish much as New York does in the USA. The sinking affects the north of the city, nearest the sea.
The tory backbenchers have some wins to bank on covid freedoms and they may decide that they don't want the publicity of a leadership election getting in the way of those.
It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him, many of whom are for the chop anyway.
Seriously, the MPs may think that's enough for now.
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.
This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
I was thinking same thing! I am not sure I'd want the job if I had to look at that paper every day, it's fecking revolting. I am sure Leon has seen more tasteful tart's boudoirs
Why is she in the betting list, when none of the 'Spartans' are?
Surely a Baker or a Harper have a better chance of making the final 2? There's at least 52% of Tory MPs, members and public who are simple enough to vote for them...
Past Brexit now - may be a mistake to think they will vote similarly. Mordaunt may appeal to some. Also Truss. Harper wasn't in the ERG by the way (he voted Remain).
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.
This post doubling as a test of @IshmaelZ self-discipline.
Whereof we cannot speak...
There's a case to be made all the Beatles were better outside the Beatles. I like George Harrison.
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.
This post doubling as a test of @IshmaelZ self-discipline.
McCartney wrote some superb songs - "You Never GIve Me Your Money", "Eleanor Rigby", and "Mother Nature's Boy", particularly.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
I'd imagine he'd want to stay on just to try and improve his reputation a bit before leaving office. He's a shambles and a laughing stock at the moment, but maybe able 'Get Covid Done' and the odd 'legacy' thing he could agree with likely successors to sell as an achievement could take the edge off. Obviously his reputation will never properly recover but may be able to sell himself as a PM who dealt with big things in his premiership but was brought low by a silly mistake. Nonsense of course, he's a deeply unpleasant entitled clown who's made a career out of assuming rules didn't apply to him and it's who he is, but lots of people didn't mind when they thought the joke and the lies were aimed at someone else other than them.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
The tory backbenchers have some wins to bank on covid freedoms and they may decide that they don't want the publicity of a leadership election getting in the way of those.
It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him, many of whom are for the chop anyway.
Seriously, the MPs may think that's enough for now.
Competition: We should have our best guess at the month a new permanent leader is in place.
- Cases are continuing there healing fall. While this maybe partially as a result of the new testing regime, the other indicators suggest that this is at least mostly real. R is down to 0.6 which is a bit of a record low for this epidemic. - Admissions are down. R is below 1. - MV beds continue their decline - We are seeing signs that deaths are levelling off
* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.
So that means 25GW of dispatchable generation with availability contracts to fire up when the wind doesn't blow.
This is a really interesting issue from an Indyref2 perspective.
25GW is roughly what the UK is burning in fossil fuels for electricity at the moment, so Scotland can become an energy powerhouse (again) once this is developed. Consider the switch to electric cars and away from boilers.
England needs to match that kind of offshore wind development to fend off a new surge of energy-nationalism - "we don't need the Scots".
The SNP are quite nuclear-averse, too, so having a few new reactors in pocket will be very important for countering that argument.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.
It'd need pebbledash to hide *that* wallpaper.
Good god, that's hideous. I've seen better in my local curry shop.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
No problem - plenty of whitewash to hand. Slap it on, let it dry, second coat, all ready the next day.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.
Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.
This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.
Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
You mean, the fact that Alex Salmond is rap...errr...I...mean...ra...ther good at chess.
In Scotland its more jigsaws you need to be very careful about. They can get you locked up.
Leon won't be visiting Wick again any time soon. Shame.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.
An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.
*It is.
Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
BF rules seem to say that they will pay out based on the following official webpage:
Be interesting to see what happens if Raab as Deputy acts as a caretaker, should Johnson flounce with immediate effect. No doubt I am reading too much into things, but it is worth noting that the official page does not record that RAB Butler acted as a caretaker PM for Eden when he was ill or away overseas for weeks on end.
The tory backbenchers have some wins to bank on covid freedoms and they may decide that they don't want the publicity of a leadership election getting in the way of those.
It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him, many of whom are for the chop anyway.
Seriously, the MPs may think that's enough for now.
Competition: We should have our best guess at the month a new permanent leader is in place.
I'm going with April.
Doesn't a tory leadership election a 10 weeks? Even if Johnson resigned tomorrow, April would be pretty tight.
The tory backbenchers have some wins to bank on covid freedoms and they may decide that they don't want the publicity of a leadership election getting in the way of those.
It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him, many of whom are for the chop anyway.
Seriously, the MPs may think that's enough for now.
Competition: We should have our best guess at the month a new permanent leader is in place.
I'm going with April.
Competition 2: if Boris departs reasonably quickly, how long after the 2024 election defeat before he is being touted as a proven election winner, languishing unfairly on the backbenches, having been an innocent victim of a remainer stitch-up, who is the only candidate to reconnect the Tory party with the voting public? I give it 4 months.
Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.
Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.
This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.
Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
That’s a bit of a setback given that you usually praise her attack lines.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
Johnson's inevitable demise and the massive damage he has done to the Conservative Party is one of the least enjoyable "I told you so"s I have ever had.
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.
This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.
I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.
John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January. I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.
*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.
* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.
So that means 25GW of dispatchable generation with availability contracts to fire up when the wind doesn't blow.
This is a really interesting issue from an Indyref2 perspective.
25GW is roughly what the UK is burning in fossil fuels for electricity at the moment, so Scotland can become an energy powerhouse (again) once this is developed. Consider the switch to electric cars and away from boilers.
England needs to match that kind of offshore wind development to fend off a new surge of energy-nationalism - "we don't need the Scots".
The SNP are quite nuclear-averse, too, so having a few new reactors in pocket will be very important for countering that argument.
England (and Wales) needs a mixture, and to build as fast as humanly possible. Offshore wind in the Irish Sea and North Sea, more solar both commercial and residential after a lull in recent years - very useful in summer when the wind drops, tidal, and more investment in interconnectors. We should be aiming for surplus electricity. That's one of the best ways to wean the country off domestic gas.
That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."
And there's bound to be more coming out.
So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.
Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).
Comments?
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
I think it's possible for a Rishi coronation. Will depend on what feedback the nascent Truss campaign is getting from MPs and how quickly the Rishi campaign can obtain cabinet endorsements after Boris falls on his sword. Could all be done and dusted pretty quickly.
My thinking is that Boris might remain in post for his successor to be decided, not as the usual matter of honour, but because he needs to find somewhere to live.
His successor's going to need to find somewhere else to live while the decorators restore the flat.
I'd imagine he'd want to stay on just to try and improve his reputation a bit before leaving office. He's a shambles and a laughing stock at the moment, but maybe able 'Get Covid Done' and the odd 'legacy' thing he could agree with likely successors to sell as an achievement could take the edge off. Obviously his reputation will never properly recover but may be able to sell himself as a PM who dealt with big things in his premiership but was brought low by a silly mistake. Nonsense of course, he's a deeply unpleasant entitled clown who's made a career out of assuming rules didn't apply to him and it's who he is, but lots of people didn't mind when they thought the joke and the lies were aimed at someone else other than them.
The 5.00 clock news is appalling for Boris and he has PMQs tomorrow
How about him making a statement at 12 noon to the house that he got things wrong, accepts his responsibility, and will formally resign from office as soon as his successor is appointed by his party
If would be most unexpected but better than being dragged through vonc and months of angst with the inevitable still happening
Two British aircraft taking very different flight paths to Ukraine and back. The weapon transporting C-17s are avoiding Germany whilst a surveillance aircraft, an RC-135, is passing through....
The UK and Germany have effectively said "ahhh, but, Germany didn't deny overflight rights as the UK didn't even ask!". Fast forward to today and a British RC-135 surveillance flies through Germany, while a British C-17 transport aircraft avoids... one is carrying weapons.
The person charged with making sense of it all — and who has been given the power of judge and jury — is of course Gray. Politicians on both sides of the divide have raised her reputation to that of near mythical status.
Yet when her report arrives it may disappoint. Her terms of reference are limited and do not require her to pass judgment or make a determination on who is and isn’t telling the truth. It does not even mandate her to search Downing Street emails or WhatsApp messages in her quest for evidence.
Been interesting watching Nicola Sturgeon today condemning Douglas Ross for the crime of initially supporting Boris as Leader. Before Ross become the very first Tory MP to call for his resignation.
Apparently he should have known what Boris was about.
This is the same Sturgeon who faithfully supported Alex Salmond for ten years as his deputy despite it being common knowledge what he was about. Only turning him on him years later, after he was safely out of power.
Not sure if she's chosen her attack line very well.
That’s a bit of a setback given that you usually praise her attack lines.
It doesn't work because you'd have to basically accuse her of being an accessory to multiple sexual assaults.
Which makes you sound ridiculous. Or banned from PB.
The person charged with making sense of it all — and who has been given the power of judge and jury — is of course Gray. Politicians on both sides of the divide have raised her reputation to that of near mythical status.
Yet when her report arrives it may disappoint. Her terms of reference are limited and do not require her to pass judgment or make a determination on who is and isn’t telling the truth. It does not even mandate her to search Downing Street emails or WhatsApp messages in her quest for evidence.
The options are obviously a smooth handover to Rishi, and a more troubled period perhaps in which Sunak resigns but Johnson still seeks to stay in place. After the months of truly awful headlines, I can't believe that Tory MP's are going to want all the media coverage to be about "Tory Chaos" for another few weeks, or even months.
The 5.00 clock news is appalling for Boris and he has PMQs tomorrow
How about him making a statement at 12 noon to the house that he got things wrong, accepts his responsibility, and will formally resign from office as soon as his successor is appointed by his party
If would be most unexpected but better than being dragged through vonc and months of angst with the inevitable still happening
He doesn't have the dignity to do that. Or possibly permission from the current Mrs Johnson.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
Johnson's inevitable demise and the massive damage he has done to the Conservative Party is one of the least enjoyable "I told you so"s I have ever had.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
The nearest one I can think of would be Portland, who resigned after Canning (FS) and Castlereagh (War Secretary) fought a duel. Or possibly Bute, who resigned after allegations he was having an affair with the dowager Queen - but that was invented.
The options are obviously a smooth handover to Rishi, and a more troubled period perhaps in which Sunak resigns but Johnson still seeks to stay in place. After the months of truly awful headlines, I can't believe that Tory MP's are going to want all the media coverage to be about "Tory Chaos" for another few weeks, or even months.
The person charged with making sense of it all — and who has been given the power of judge and jury — is of course Gray. Politicians on both sides of the divide have raised her reputation to that of near mythical status.
Yet when her report arrives it may disappoint. Her terms of reference are limited and do not require her to pass judgment or make a determination on who is and isn’t telling the truth. It does not even mandate her to search Downing Street emails or WhatsApp messages in her quest for evidence.
Wasn't that pointed out some time ago by Cyclefree?
Well @Cyclefree was more she isn't qualified to do the job but David Allen Green over the weekend also pointed out that her remit may not be enough to allow her to reach a conclusion because who wishes to criticise a boss who may remain in place
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.
This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.
I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.
John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January. I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.
*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.
I don't like that one either and I like Imagine even less. What I do like - even more now than originally - is Give Peace A Chance. And his other simple chanty one, All You Need Is Love, that I also like.
The 5.00 clock news is appalling for Boris and he has PMQs tomorrow
How about him making a statement at 12 noon to the house that he got things wrong, accepts his responsibility, and will formally resign from office as soon as his successor is appointed by his party
If would be most unexpected but better than being dragged through vonc and months of angst with the inevitable still happening
He doesn't have the dignity to do that. Or possibly permission from the current Mrs Johnson.
That is why I said unexpected but it would be a huge relief
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
Johnson's inevitable demise and the massive damage he has done to the Conservative Party is one of the least enjoyable "I told you so"s I have ever had.
No, just watch in awe as the miraculous Tory skill for total reinvention every time they replace a leader strikes yet again. Such will be the relief that someone half presentable is now in high office (assuming it's Sunak) that I expect a decent honeymoon and poll leads within a couple of months. Starmer doesn't have the positive momentum yet, it's all been about negative momentum for Boris.
* That's roughly the same as the current installed capacity for the whole UK.
So that means 25GW of dispatchable generation with availability contracts to fire up when the wind doesn't blow.
This is a really interesting issue from an Indyref2 perspective.
25GW is roughly what the UK is burning in fossil fuels for electricity at the moment, so Scotland can become an energy powerhouse (again) once this is developed. Consider the switch to electric cars and away from boilers.
England needs to match that kind of offshore wind development to fend off a new surge of energy-nationalism - "we don't need the Scots".
The SNP are quite nuclear-averse, too, so having a few new reactors in pocket will be very important for countering that argument.
England (and Wales) needs a mixture, and to build as fast as humanly possible. Offshore wind in the Irish Sea and North Sea, more solar both commercial and residential after a lull in recent years - very useful in summer when the wind drops, tidal, and more investment in interconnectors. We should be aiming for surplus electricity. That's one of the best ways to wean the country off domestic gas.
Always surprised at how much we get from solar. Real success story given the relative lack of investment/interest in it.
I read a really good article about "surplus energy" somewhere. Could be transformational if marginal cost approaches zero with so many of our day-to-day costs derived from it.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.
This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.
I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.
John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January. I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.
*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.
Its one of my favourite Christmas songs. Its always such a relief from the wall to wall pap you get on playlists at that time of year.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
'Nobody told me that I was breaking the laws that I had just introduced and explained to the nation mere weeks ago' is by a distance the worst excuse I've ever heard.
That track is just genius. Better than anything he did in the Beatles in my opinion (as is Jealous Guy).
Yes he did some great stuff solo. With the Beatles too, of course, but on the whole I slightly prefer Macca's Beatles output. I once did a quick instinctive 'fav 20 Beatles songs', without thinking too much about it, then checked to see who'd written them, expecting to have like 12 Johns on there, him being the cool edgy one like me, 6 Pauls and 2 Georges, but No! - there were 2 Georges, sure enough, or maybe 3, but shock horror more Pauls than Johns in the rest.
This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.
I'm the opposite. I want to like Paul's stuff - he's been famous for 60-odd years, but at no time has come across as anything other than a nice bloke, whereas John Lennon came across as a right pain in the arse almost all of the time - but all my favourite Beatles stuff is by John. But in general my taste is to the shoutier and more discordant end of the spectrum rather than the melodious end - give me the Fall over the Las.
John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January. I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.
*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.
I don't like that one either and I like Imagine even less. What I do like - even more now than originally - is Give Peace A Chance. And his other simple chanty one, All You Need Is Love, that I also like.
A Day In The Life is a superb Lennon song - with McCartney interludes - as is Tomorrow Never Knows.
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
We may be in for interesting times.
Theresa May?
I suggested that days ago but my feedback is unlikely
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
Two British aircraft taking very different flight paths to Ukraine and back. The weapon transporting C-17s are avoiding Germany whilst a surveillance aircraft, an RC-135, is passing through....
The UK and Germany have effectively said "ahhh, but, Germany didn't deny overflight rights as the UK didn't even ask!". Fast forward to today and a British RC-135 surveillance flies through Germany, while a British C-17 transport aircraft avoids... one is carrying weapons.
"They're sending a new flag up on the tall ship," the watcher said. "The flag is yellow . . . with a black and red circle in the center." "There's a subtle piece of business," Paul said. "The CHOAM Company flag." "It's the same as the flag at the other ships," the Fedaykin guard said. "I don't understand," Stilgar said. "A subtle piece of business indeed," Gurney said. "Had he sent up the Atreides banner, he'd have had to live by what that meant. Too many observers about. He could've signaled with the Harkonnen flag on his staff - a flat declaration that'd have been. But, no - he sends up the CHOAM rag. He's telling the people up there . . . " Gurney pointed toward space. " . . . where the profit is......
Oh to be a fly on the wall (or nowadays, a Zoom hacker) at that one!
If I had any dealings with Cummings, I would record every word. For one thing, he's a lying, untrustworthy POS. For another, he'd be bound to be recording the conversation as well...
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
We may be in for interesting times.
Rab Butler was never considered PM, although he was in acting charge after Eden resigned until Macmillan was appointed. The previous time the question arose was in 1865, and then and every time before an obvious successor was appointed immediately (in 1865 former Prime Minister and incumbent Foreign Secretary Lord John Russell).
Richard, I agree. That interview was brutal. I thought Boris did quite well at the last PMQs dealing with party-gate but he looked broken in that Rigby interview. Hard to see him surviving now, in my view.
I was persuaded by the case you made the other day for Raab as next Prime Minister and, although you state that this is "indeed more likely now", you sound less convinced. Is that because you are expecting a coronation for Rishi? Or are you now doubting whether Betfair would pay out on Raab as "interim" PM, prior to a leadership election?
Well, my view was that Raab was a good bet at 40/1 or more. I'm sure that's still the case, but the odds have shortened a lot. I'm not worried about Betfair not paying out, their rules are (for once!) commendably clear. Assuming Boris goes soon, for the Raab bet to come good, we would need:
1. There to be a contest, rather than a quick coronation; 2. Boris to leave the office of PM whilst the contest takes place, rather than staying on as May did, and 3. Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily.
1 killing the bet is certainly possible, but would require unanimous agreement amongst the wannabe leaders. I can't see Liz Truss, for example, playing along, and members wouldn't be happy, so I don't think is very likely.
2 (Boris staying on) is IMO the biggest risk to the bet winning
3 is a risk, but Raab is by far the most likely, assuming he realises that he won't be next leader.
Hard to put figures to these, but I think the 40/1 or more was generous overall.
May had not lied to the Commons. I don't think caretaker/night watchman Boris is that big a threat.
Has a PM ever had to resign in proper disgrace (as opposed to defeat or cataclysmic policy failure) before?
"Raab to be the one to take on the job temporarily."
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
We may be in for interesting times.
Theresa May?
That’d be funny.
It would be - but (a) she has the experience (b) she's relatively sane and (c) no way could she stay on even if she wanted.
To be honest is it right for them to gather as a faction? What should be so different about them as any other Conservative elected MP in 2019? It’s easy to appreciate them meeting secretly together is going to rankle the others.
Oh to be a fly on the wall (or nowadays, a Zoom hacker) at that one!
If I had any dealings with Cummings, I would record every word. For one thing, he's a lying, untrustworthy POS. For another, he'd be bound to be recording the conversation as well...
Do you remember the Plebgate comedy? The senior police representatives came out of a meeting and straight up lied about what had been said. Then Andrew Mitchell played the recording. Then plod claimed that recording conversations was unfair.....
To be honest is it right for them to gather as a faction? What should be so different about them as any other Conservative elected MP in 2019? It’s easy to appreciate them meeting secretly together is going to rankle the others.
Too many want to keep their jobs including the ridiculous JRM who misjudged the Paterson debacle, and Dorries whose performance at the dispatch box yesterday had me covering my eyes and ears
Bit more on this - group of about 20 of the 2019 intake have met a few times to talk about the overall situation, including, it's said how to defend PM if opposition parties force a vote of no confidence in the Commons
Two of their number suggest there may be a flurry of them submitting letters to Graham Brady tomorrow afternoon - that could rapidly change the situation for No 10 - however, it could also, easily melt away
The possible threat certainly ups the ante for PMQs tomorrow - a poor performance could convince more of them to act
Oh to be a fly on the wall (or nowadays, a Zoom hacker) at that one!
If I had any dealings with Cummings, I would record every word. For one thing, he's a lying, untrustworthy POS. For another, he'd be bound to be recording the conversation as well...
Do you remember the Plebgate comedy? The senior police representatives came out of a meeting and straight up lied about what had been said. Then Andrew Mitchell played the recording. Then plod claimed that recording conversations was unfair.....
So if you're ever interviewed by police can you use that as a reason for not talking? 'I'm being recorded, it isn't fair!'
Not that I would ever talk to the police unless they let me record them on a device of my own (and I know they wouldn't).
To be honest is it right for them to gather as a faction? What should be so different about them as any other Conservative elected MP in 2019? It’s easy to appreciate them meeting secretly together is going to rankle the others.
Gathering in factions *is* behaving like any other Conservative MP.
Oh to be a fly on the wall (or nowadays, a Zoom hacker) at that one!
If I had any dealings with Cummings, I would record every word. For one thing, he's a lying, untrustworthy POS. For another, he'd be bound to be recording the conversation as well...
Do you remember the Plebgate comedy? The senior police representatives came out of a meeting and straight up lied about what had been said. Then Andrew Mitchell played the recording. Then plod claimed that recording conversations was unfair.....
Front and centre now as to what when in or out of Downing St.
It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him
Isn't this how our democracy is supposed to work?
If it hasn't worked that way in recent times, its partly Labour's fault.
It was Labour, not the Tory backbenchers, who gave Johnson more unchecked power than any PM, well, since Churchill, and they got zero representation in return. Its no wonder Johnson and his coterie felt invincible.
Steve Baker has often voiced his frustration that attempts to corral the leadership of the party and provide opposition have gone nowhere because Labour simply weren't interested.
Bit more on this - group of about 20 of the 2019 intake have met a few times to talk about the overall situation, including, it's said how to defend PM if opposition parties force a vote of no confidence in the Commons
Two of their number suggest there may be a flurry of them submitting letters to Graham Brady tomorrow afternoon - that could rapidly change the situation for No 10 - however, it could also, easily melt away
The possible threat certainly ups the ante for PMQs tomorrow - a poor performance could convince more of them to act
This is getting like bloody lockdowns....we all know what has to happen, we all know it is going to happen...but all this delay and dithering and can kicking hoping something turns up, just makes it worse.
Thank F*ck I backed Raab both for leader and next PM. At least a fighting chance it will come off. I see he is still around 20s (bf) though so no great move.
Comments
Why is she in the betting list, when none of the 'Spartans' are?
Surely a Baker or a Harper have a better chance of making the final 2? There's at least 52% of Tory MPs, members and public who are simple enough to vote for them...
https://coconuts.co/jakarta/news/vast-indonesia-settles-on-nusantara-name-for-new-capital-city-which-means-archipelago/
Whether it turns into a "Washington" or a "Brasilia", time will tell.
It also appears the MPs are now pulling Johnson's strings as opposed to advisors, spads and personal contacts around him, many of whom are for the chop anyway.
Seriously, the MPs may think that's enough for now.
This post doubling as a test of Ishmael's self-discipline.
There's a case to be made all the Beatles were better outside the Beatles. I like George Harrison.
Was it something he posted last night? There was a line at the end of one of his posts that look well-beyond dodgy to me.
I'm going with April.
- Cases are continuing there healing fall. While this maybe partially as a result of the new testing regime, the other indicators suggest that this is at least mostly real. R is down to 0.6 which is a bit of a record low for this epidemic.
- Admissions are down. R is below 1.
- MV beds continue their decline
- We are seeing signs that deaths are levelling off
25GW is roughly what the UK is burning in fossil fuels for electricity at the moment, so Scotland can become an energy powerhouse (again) once this is developed. Consider the switch to electric cars and away from boilers.
England needs to match that kind of offshore wind development to fend off a new surge of energy-nationalism - "we don't need the Scots".
The SNP are quite nuclear-averse, too, so having a few new reactors in pocket will be very important for countering that argument.
https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister
Be interesting to see what happens if Raab as Deputy acts as a caretaker, should Johnson flounce with immediate effect. No doubt I am reading too much into things, but it is worth noting that the official page does not record that RAB Butler acted as a caretaker PM for Eden when he was ill or away overseas for weeks on end.
I would go with September.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60038685
John Lennon is, however, responsible for one of the most egregious pieces of pap ever to besmirch the pop charts: Happy Xmas War is Over. Even typing it makes me cringe. 'Xmas*', for a start. I remember hearing it at the age of 6 and blanching not only at the piousness and self-righteousness of it, but also at the line 'So this is Christmas ... Another year over and a new one just begun'. No it hasn't. That would be January.
I was a pedantic child and I have got no better.
*I don't mind 'Xmas' per se. But it has to be pronounced 'exmass'. If what you are saying is 'Christmas', write it in full. You lazy scouse bastard.
Going all-in on CCS would be a better option, but people like to see wind turbines as a visualisation of 'green'.
How about him making a statement at 12 noon to the house that he got things wrong, accepts his responsibility, and will formally resign from office as soon as his successor is appointed by his party
If would be most unexpected but better than being dragged through vonc and months of angst with the inevitable still happening
The UK and Germany have effectively said "ahhh, but, Germany didn't deny overflight rights as the UK didn't even ask!". Fast forward to today and a British RC-135 surveillance flies through Germany, while a British C-17 transport aircraft avoids... one is carrying weapons.
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1483475601273020423?s=20
The person charged with making sense of it all — and who has been given the power of judge and jury — is of course Gray. Politicians on both sides of the divide have raised her reputation to that of near mythical status.
Yet when her report arrives it may disappoint. Her terms of reference are limited and do not require her to pass judgment or make a determination on who is and isn’t telling the truth. It does not even mandate her to search Downing Street emails or WhatsApp messages in her quest for evidence.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-has-dominic-cummings-delivered-the-fatal-blow-7xl0prj07
Which makes you sound ridiculous. Or banned from PB.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1483488255953846272?s=20
"a muscular* foot helps him hang on"
* (c)Barty Roberts
On BF at least it seems you are relying on the official webpage of UK Government saying that Raab is PM. It may not. Who knows. It may list him as Caretaker in this scenario.
Plus, based on discussions between Palace and politicians in previous episodes where a caretaker may have been needed - the Palace was very keen to have someone who was quite obviously and clearly going to stand down when the caretaker role was done and someone with zero interest in leadership.
Does Raab fit that?
Hague would be a better choice based on older precedent, but then again the deputy PM role is fairly new. If indeed it actually formally exists (I can't recall now??).
We may be in for interesting times.
What political or Government-related news stories most caught Britons' attention in the past week?
The most commonly cited topic is the Downing Street parties, a response given by 66% of respondents.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483491903920381954?s=20
I read a really good article about "surplus energy" somewhere. Could be transformational if marginal cost approaches zero with so many of our day-to-day costs derived from it.
Wait for the vaccine (Sunak) but the damage is done.
The Red Wall plot to remove Boris Johnson - with Tory MPs meeting to discuss submitting letters - is not going down well in Cabinet
'It's pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies. It's nuts'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483492272985542661?s=20
"They're sending a new flag up on the tall ship," the watcher said. "The flag is yellow . . . with a black and red circle in the center."
"There's a subtle piece of business," Paul said. "The CHOAM Company flag."
"It's the same as the flag at the other ships," the Fedaykin guard said.
"I don't understand," Stilgar said.
"A subtle piece of business indeed," Gurney said. "Had he sent up the Atreides banner, he'd have had to live by what that meant. Too many observers about. He could've signaled with the Harkonnen flag on his staff - a flat declaration that'd have been. But, no - he sends up the CHOAM rag. He's telling the people up there . . . " Gurney pointed toward space. " . . . where the profit is......
Two of their number suggest there may be a flurry of them submitting letters to Graham Brady tomorrow afternoon - that could rapidly change the situation for No 10 - however, it could also, easily melt away
The possible threat certainly ups the ante for PMQs tomorrow - a poor performance could convince more of them to act
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1483493359532584963
Not that I would ever talk to the police unless they let me record them on a device of my own (and I know they wouldn't).
A suitcase of liquids? Unchecked?
Oh! You didn't mean Jon Venable's partner in crime?
It was Labour, not the Tory backbenchers, who gave Johnson more unchecked power than any PM, well, since Churchill, and they got zero representation in return. Its no wonder Johnson and his coterie felt invincible.
Steve Baker has often voiced his frustration that attempts to corral the leadership of the party and provide opposition have gone nowhere because Labour simply weren't interested.
Thank F*ck I backed Raab both for leader and next PM. At least a fighting chance it will come off. I see he is still around 20s (bf) though so no great move.