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Hunt now a clear third place in Johnson successor betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageHunt now a clear third place in Johnson successor betting – politicalbetting.com

With the prospect of an early Conservative leadership election becoming increasingly more likely there has been a lot of activity in the betting. As can be seen Rishi Sunak has edged up even further to his highest level ever but he is still rated as only a 35% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Has To Be Hunt.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,921
    edited January 14
    Second like the Lib Dems in the upcoming Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election.

    (OGH/TSE - you have a surplus sentence after the byline in the posting)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,123

    Second like the Lib Dems in the upcoming Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election.

    You mean, behind Labour?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,024
    As @patrickkmaguire says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1481926153824780288
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,921

    Second like the Lib Dems in the upcoming Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election.

    You mean, behind Labour?
    Yup.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,860
    edited January 14
    FPT:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    8m
    Second
    @YouGov
    poll in two days, via
    @patrickkmaguire

    Lab 40% +2
    Con 29% +1
    Lib Dem 11% -2
    Green 6% -1
    Reform 6% +2

    Djokovic and Andrew stories really hurting the Tories for some weird reason.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,890
    Labour in majority territory right now and I think this gets worse for Boris with last night's revelations. That will focus a lot of people who are were Tory 2019 and currently DK.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,937
    Scott_xP said:

    As @patrickkmaguire says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1481926153824780288

    What does any of that matter to the electorate which chose IDS?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,216
    edited January 14
    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,937
    MaxPB said:

    Labour in majority territory right now and I think this gets worse for Boris with last night's revelations. That will focus a lot of people who are were Tory 2019 and currently DK.

    Lab maj still 11/2. Screaming value.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,024
    Another plus if it's Hunt is Tories can spend the next 2 years fighting each other over "should have picked Hunt the first time round instead of BoZo"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,024
    Fun fact from the second @yougov poll in two days. In the one conducted after PMQs more Conservative 2019 voters are switching to Labour than to Reform UK

    (Still very high don't knows as well) https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1481927804551933954/photo/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,860
    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,184
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As @patrickkmaguire says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1481926153824780288

    What does any of that matter to the electorate which chose IDS?
    That electorate is a lot harder to read than the Tory electorate of old. Given the number of newly won constituencies, the ultra-Remainers who were kicked out plus normal churn, the 2021 Tory MP constituency is markedly different from that which elected BJ.

    Hunt being so high in the price just shows the laziness about which candidate to back. There is no why Hunt would get the post.
  • If you plan to vote Tory you are personally insulting the Queen.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534
    edited January 14
    Scott_xP said:

    Fun fact from the second @yougov poll in two days. In the one conducted after PMQs more Conservative 2019 voters are switching to Labour than to Reform UK

    (Still very high don't knows as well) https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1481927804551933954/photo/1

    The Tories on 29 and Labour on 40 today, if I've read that table right. Dreadful for them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,860

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,653
    edited January 14

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    May wasn't a coronation, Howard was a coronation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,860

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    May wasn't a coronation, Howard was a coronation.
    It was effectively.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Is that two polls in the 20s now? He is taking the Tories into Corbyn territory. Right down to their absolute base. It is what I always feared he would do.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,222
    MaxPB said:

    Labour in majority territory right now and I think this gets worse for Boris with last night's revelations. That will focus a lot of people who are were Tory 2019 and currently DK.

    Not on that YouGov poll with the new Boundaries it's Labour 315, Tories 238, Lib Dems do well with 21
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=6&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,546
    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    As
    @patrickkmaguire
    says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    Possible. They also did it with Howard. I think unlikely though.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,222

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    May wasn't a coronation, Howard was a coronation.
    It was effectively.
    Not really - it was a comedy of errors as everyone except May either screwed up or was knifed leaving May as the last one standing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,599

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    "Inexplicable" is a good way of putting it. It is a challenge to comprehend just how utterly stupid Johnson's behaviour has been. If at the time of lockdown you had said "And of course they are having nightly parties at 10 Downing Street " this would be seen as totally ridiculous and obviously defamatory and you would be seen as weirdly demented.

    (By the way is BDS still a thing? Had a lot of currency on these pages)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    If you plan to vote Tory you are personally insulting the Queen.

    I think that might be hyperbolic in general, but perhaps while Johnson is in charge, and seeing he has to go and visit her, it may be true.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,341
    Leadsom for leader.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,860
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour in majority territory right now and I think this gets worse for Boris with last night's revelations. That will focus a lot of people who are were Tory 2019 and currently DK.

    Not on that YouGov poll with the new Boundaries it's Labour 315, Tories 238, Lib Dems do well with 21
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=6&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    Even so, look at the list of projected Tory casualties... including one Boris Johnson.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,216
    I presume Farage will be back to Serbia to support the novax family....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,937
    I'll say it again, SKSICIPMWAM, and can be backed at 11/2. Science is powerless to explain this. Do people expect a sort of it-was-all-a-dream reset to jan 2020?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,694
    Scott_xP said:
    Does this fall inside the recently budged @HYUFD goalposts?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,546

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    May wasn't a coronation, Howard was a coronation.
    Leadsom self-exploded mid way through campaign, leaving field empty for May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,120
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As @patrickkmaguire says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1481926153824780288

    What does any of that matter to the electorate which chose IDS?
    I think the tweet shows a misunderstanding. There is a group of people instinctively opposed to all Tories named in the survey, so all the graph shows is she's a few steps behind Sunak in convincing Tory voters. Then as you say, Tory voters don't get a vote.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    I presume Farage will be back to Serbia to support the novax family....

    that'll be most comforting for them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    edited January 14
    On current hypothetical polls the Tories would poll worse under Gove and Truss than Boris and even Sunak only gets a small bounce
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897
    Ah, Jeremy Hunt. The Health Secretary who put the pandemic preparedness plan he commissioned straight in the bin. No-one is going to bring that up during a leadership campaign, not at all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,009
    edited January 14
    The more this goes on, the more ordinary people (and punters) are thinking, "surely, next time, the Tories will choose a grown-up, safe pair of hands?"

    Hence the interest in Hunt.

    It's just that I was stung for assuming they'd (the MPs, at least) want a grown-up the last time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897

    I presume Farage will be back to Serbia to support the novax family....

    Does No-vax actually live in Serbia, or is he based in Monaco with all the other touring sportsmen?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    eek said:
    Oh dear. If this is their best defence it isn't going to go down well
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,694
    Labour should now vocally back a return to Plan A (they have clear cover from the numbers) and shore up any remaining undecideds. Get towards 45% as anti-restriction lefties come back home.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,350
    Sandpit said:

    Ah, Jeremy Hunt. The Health Secretary who put the pandemic preparedness plan he commissioned straight in the bin. No-one is going to bring that up during a leadership campaign, not at all.

    I had been wondering about that too.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,222

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    Possible. They also did it with Howard. I think unlikely though.
    I think it depends on how quickly they need Boris to leave - if they are in a real rush you can just about see only 1 person being nominated...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,546
    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    ·
    48m
    But Johnson's allies know he's on thin ice:

    "Everything has to go right for him to survive this, no further mistakes. Boris realises he’s lost another of his nine lives and this is a brush with political death"

    And in May? "If we lose badly, he’s out"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    Scott_xP said:
    1% swing from LD to Conservative in that new Yougov then
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,216
    edited January 14
    Sandpit said:

    I presume Farage will be back to Serbia to support the novax family....

    Does No-vax actually live in Serbia, or is he based in Monaco with all the other touring sportsmen?
    He is registered for tax reasons in Monaco, but i believe actually lives in Spain where he spends most of his time during the European part of the tennis season and then has two homes in the US for when tournaments are in US.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,860
    HYUFD said:

    On current hypothetical polls the Tories would poll worse under Gove and Truss than Boris and even Sunak only gets a small bounce

    That's because you're doomed - banished to wilderness for a generation, hopefully.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,350

    HYUFD said:

    On current hypothetical polls the Tories would poll worse under Gove and Truss than Boris and even Sunak only gets a small bounce

    That's because you're doomed - banished to wilderness for a generation, hopefully.
    A SNP generation? Rather longer, one hopes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,341
    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    Sandpit said:

    Ah, Jeremy Hunt. The Health Secretary who put the pandemic preparedness plan he commissioned straight in the bin. No-one is going to bring that up during a leadership campaign, not at all.

    Sure he isn't perfect, but then who is? He has actually seemed rather more grown up (not difficult) through the pandemic than pretty much everyone else. Possibly The Saj has had a "good" pandemic, but he looks too much like Dr Evil.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845

    If you plan to vote Tory you are personally insulting the Queen.

    No you aren't, the Tories want to keep the monarchy unlike you
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,194
    MaxPB said:

    I think Hunt will do a deal with Rishi for a top job. There's no way he can win with the members.

    Hunt is a very plausible candidate for chancellor.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,146
    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    I think that's about right.

    What do you make of Harper or Mordaunt as value long-shots??
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    HYUFD said:

    If you plan to vote Tory you are personally insulting the Queen.

    No you aren't, the Tories want to keep the monarchy unlike you
    they like her so much that their leader thinks it is OK to party like it's 1999 when she is grieving.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Boris still winning more Tory MPs than Major in 1997, Hague and Howard did then, even before the boundary changes
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,846
    Javid seems to be the best value on current odds. He showed a willingness to stand up to Johnson/Cummings in leaving the Cabinet, but that he was a team player in returning to it.

    I do think Truss' position is strong. She tops the ConHome members polling, who have the final say, she's the only contender with a good Brexit story to tell, and she can show that the NI Protocol negotiations are safe in her hands, provided she doesn't compromise before a contest.

    Why is Patel completely absent from the odds?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534
    edited January 14

    Scott_xP said:
    Does this fall inside the recently budged @HYUFD goalposts?
    Con up 1 ! Boris saved and reconsidered as an honourable fighter, against the odds.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,009
    edited January 14

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Well, we've reached the point where the Tories being on 29% is an improvement!

    Edit/I see he beat me to it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,361
    edited January 14
    My preferences, in order, would be Rishi, Jeremy, Liz, Saj.

    But I can't help thinking these odds are more defined by personal preferences of punters than by any consideration of the selectorate - who should it be, rather than who will it be.

    The big questions to ask are:
    1) Which contenders have support amongst fellow MPs to enable them to get to the last two?
    2) Following that, who does the membership choose?

    The answer to the former really needs some insider knowledge. I'm surprised Steve Baker or Mark Harper aren't higher, because I'd expect some representation from that wing of the party in the final three - from where getting into the final two is merely a matter of how the other candidates' votes are distributed.
    The answer to the latter is more readily discernible from opinion polls (i.e. Truss does well if she gets to the last two), but I wouldn't necessarily set a great deal of store by these either, since minds will be changed by the campaign to a much greater extent that they would be a GE campaign.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,546
    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    I think that's about right.

    What do you make of Harper or Mordaunt as value long-shots??
    Like both, heard Mordaunt at a drinks event in 2019 and she was on the ball.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Boris still winning more Tory MPs than Major in 1997, Hague and Howard did then, even before the boundary changes
    Please old chap, do stop. Do you remember this bloke? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,009

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour in majority territory right now and I think this gets worse for Boris with last night's revelations. That will focus a lot of people who are were Tory 2019 and currently DK.

    Not on that YouGov poll with the new Boundaries it's Labour 315, Tories 238, Lib Dems do well with 21
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=6&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    Even so, look at the list of projected Tory casualties... including one Boris Johnson.
    I think you mean, the candidate the local Tories have selected to replace him?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,583
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    1% swing from LD to Conservative in that new Yougov then
    You remind me of the iconic end scene from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance kid when Butch says to Sundance "I thought we were in trouble for a minute...."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,216
    edited January 14

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    The equivalent is during expenses scandal, all but a handful were all within the law (most were within the rules as they stood at times of claims), but trying to argue that didn't get you far. In fact, some of the most famous examples, e.g. the duck house wasn't even paid for by the public, its thr fact somebody dared to even consider putting in such bills (even if it ask can i claim for this).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,350

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    The same Crown which they have insulted by partying on the morning of the D of E's funeral?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,194
    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    It won't wash in the court of public opinion, that's for sure.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,245

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Boris still winning more Tory MPs than Major in 1997, Hague and Howard did then, even before the boundary changes
    Please old chap, do stop. Do you remember this bloke? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf
    Talking in the wind, I think....
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    I think that's about right.

    What do you make of Harper or Mordaunt as value long-shots??
    Like both, heard Mordaunt at a drinks event in 2019 and she was on the ball.

    I agree with those saying Mordaunt is a dark horse.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,921
    eek said:
    Or in other words:

    "There really is one rule for us and another rule for you"

    That will go down really well. Guaranteed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,245
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    The same Crown which they have insulted by partying on the morning of the D of E's funeral?

    Ah, so they have acquired the Blairite Legal Theory

    1) We con construct an argument that X might be legal
    2) Therefore X is legal
    3) Therefore we were almost compelled to do X.
    4) Therefore we are completely innocent of all wrong doing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897

    Sandpit said:

    Ah, Jeremy Hunt. The Health Secretary who put the pandemic preparedness plan he commissioned straight in the bin. No-one is going to bring that up during a leadership campaign, not at all.

    Sure he isn't perfect, but then who is? He has actually seemed rather more grown up (not difficult) through the pandemic than pretty much everyone else. Possibly The Saj has had a "good" pandemic, but he looks too much like Dr Evil.
    There has to be some value in Javid at 25/1, which is the price indicated in the header image.

    I’m not laying Sunak too much, but I think his ideal time is close to passing, he looks involved with this week’s headlines and there’s tax rises coming down the line.

    Not sure on Truss this time around, she really needs another couple of years to get some achievements at FCO under her belt.

    If we get a contest this year, it could end up with a relative outsider even when in government.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,721

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    59 out of 59

    Can’t get any clearer.

    Full results:
    YouGov 12-13 January (+/- change from YouGov 11-12 January)

    Lab 40% (+2)
    Con 29% (+1)
    LD 11% (-2)
    Grn 6% (-1)
    Ref 6% (+2)
    SNP 5% (nc)
    oth 1% (-2)

    The Times
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Boris still winning more Tory MPs than Major in 1997, Hague and Howard did then, even before the boundary changes
    Please old chap, do stop. Do you remember this bloke? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf
    Talking in the wind, I think....
    To be fair, he did at least "like" my post even though he knew I was teasing. You gotta like the man!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,921
    This is good: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/01/the-situation-for-the-tories-is-worse-than-you-think

    "What should worry the Tories now is that the Johnsonian advantage in the marginal seats is now in tatters. Voters are angry everywhere, but they’re especially so in the marginals that matter. That’s what makes this situation far more worrisome for the Tories than the national polls would imply. In the seats that Labour lost in 2019, the Labour lead is larger than in the national polls. Similarly, Johnson’s favourability numbers are now worse in the marginals than the country at large."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,009
    FF43 said:

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    "Inexplicable" is a good way of putting it. It is a challenge to comprehend just how utterly stupid Johnson's behaviour has been. If at the time of lockdown you had said "And of course they are having nightly parties at 10 Downing Street " this would be seen as totally ridiculous and obviously defamatory and you would be seen as weirdly demented.

    (By the way is BDS still a thing? Had a lot of currency on these pages)
    It's the absence of what should have passed through the mind of any leader, having enacted such an unprecedented set of draconian new laws, which is that it was their role and duty to lead by setting a good example.

    Or even the thinking of a more calculating politician, able to foresee the damage that would be done if they were found not to be following their own rules.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,446

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    Possible. They also did it with Howard. I think unlikely though.
    Impossible, I suspect. The Tory party is as split now as it was at the time when the referendum was the only way to heal the party.

    Hunt is of course by miles the best option, though it is not possible to see how he gets through the voting process, and of course would appeal to a very different constituency from Boris; which may take time to recover.

    Perhaps the Tories should tell themselves that the next election is a good one to lose.

    Hunt handling the post Brexit process would be quite a test.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,009
    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    File under BWITD.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,705
    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,000

    eek said:
    Or in other words:

    "There really is one rule for us and another rule for you"

    That will go down really well. Guaranteed.
    If they try that, then the *shit* will really hit the fan.


    I was thinking this morning, that one of the main characteristics of being 'British' is our sense of fair play, that everyone should play by the rules, that we should be treated fairly. This goes against the fundamental tenet of that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,721
    FF43 said:

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    "Inexplicable" is a good way of putting it. It is a challenge to comprehend just how utterly stupid Johnson's behaviour has been. If at the time of lockdown you had said "And of course they are having nightly parties at 10 Downing Street " this would be seen as totally ridiculous and obviously defamatory and you would be seen as weirdly demented.

    (By the way is BDS still a thing? Had a lot of currency on these pages)
    BDS?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,705

    eek said:
    Or in other words:

    "There really is one rule for us and another rule for you"

    That will go down really well. Guaranteed.
    Isn't there a similar status for the various bars in the Houses of Parliament?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,705
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    The same Crown which they have insulted by partying on the morning of the D of E's funeral?
    Oh now you're excercised by affronts to the Monarch.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,721
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Boris still winning more Tory MPs than Major in 1997, Hague and Howard did then, even before the boundary changes
    Unspoofable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
    I might now given Brexit is done, Hunt is also the most pro life of the potential candidates
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,433

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    The equivalent is during expenses scandal, all but a handful were all within the law (most were within the rules as they stood at times of claims), but trying to argue that didn't get you far. In fact, some of the most famous examples, e.g. the duck house wasn't even paid for by the public, its thr fact somebody dared to even consider putting in such bills (even if it ask can i claim for this).
    Well, one does tend to find bills inside a duck house.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,350
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
    I might now given Brexit is done, Hunt is also the most pro life of the potential candidates
    Brexit is about as done as a half-cooked turkey.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,721
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
    Tell Adam, not me. I’ve seen you make the identical point at least 200 times before. Perhaps Adam has never read PB and it will therefore be a novel take for him?
    I just have, on twitter
    Good boy! I’m sure that Adam will consider it to be an invaluable contribution to saving the Union.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    59 out of 59

    Can’t get any clearer.

    Full results:
    YouGov 12-13 January (+/- change from YouGov 11-12 January)

    Lab 40% (+2)
    Con 29% (+1)
    LD 11% (-2)
    Grn 6% (-1)
    Ref 6% (+2)
    SNP 5% (nc)
    oth 1% (-2)

    The Times
    If Labour win most seats the SNP will not get indyref2, if the Tories win again the SNP will not get indyref2 no matter how many Scottish seats they win.

    Only way SNP get indyref2 is a hung parliament with Tories most seats but less than Labour and SNP
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,705
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
    I might now given Brexit is done, Hunt is also the most pro life of the potential candidates
    And the "Tory base"? Can you sum up the characteristics pls.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,009
    eek said:

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    Possible. They also did it with Howard. I think unlikely though.
    I think it depends on how quickly they need Boris to leave - if they are in a real rush you can just about see only 1 person being nominated...
    If the MPs have any sense, they won't want to go near their members again.

    Which is actually an argument to go early, while we are still in the pandemic crisis, since this gives the excuse not to have the distraction of a leadership election.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,350
    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    The equivalent is during expenses scandal, all but a handful were all within the law (most were within the rules as they stood at times of claims), but trying to argue that didn't get you far. In fact, some of the most famous examples, e.g. the duck house wasn't even paid for by the public, its thr fact somebody dared to even consider putting in such bills (even if it ask can i claim for this).
    Well, one does tend to find bills inside a duck house.
    There's also an expression: slippery as goose shit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,705

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    Boris still winning more Tory MPs than Major in 1997, Hague and Howard did then, even before the boundary changes
    Unspoofable.
    Is your profile picture Boris as a child?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,127
    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!
This discussion has been closed.