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Hunt now a clear third place in Johnson successor betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,963
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
    Yes. He detoxified the idea that electIng a Public School boy would mean a bumbling incompetent out of touch with, and incapable of communicating with your average voter who'd piss around thinking the rules don't apply to him.
    Unfortunately. Mean has been reverted to.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554
    edited January 14
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
    Er, point of order. Fettes isn't anything like so mediaeval or Establishment. Much more of a mainstream [edit] Public School in the Arnoldian sense.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,599
    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,157
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
    Is that like Danny Dyer being the Leonardo di Caprio of England?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,440
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, COVID-20, but with Black Death level mortality rate.

    Thankfully, there will never be a Covid-20, nor Covid-21. :)
    There wasn't a Covid-19 by this point in 2020, so...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    So I understand. But does this average include old men who have shrunk? Because it seems quite short to me.
    I am six foot, and of the cohort of friends I have from school who I still hang around with - 10 of us - I am the shortest. I can't think of any of my male friends who are shorter than 5' 10''.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
  • IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    I very much agree but not sure if the membership can be sidelined
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,069
    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Don't think Sunak will win my mum's vote - she regularly calls him an "onnakottan" - apparently this is loosely meaning a "tiny squirt" in Malayalam :lol:
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,153

    FF43 said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    I have heard stories of people finding out about the parties, thinking about what they were doing at the time and bursting into tears. It's been a long, unnatural and stressful period. Partygate was a psychological trigger for something lost.
    Indeed. I have had a relatively untroubled Covid experience - a brief scare with my in-laws and an unpleasant but not dangerous brush with the disease myself. And I'm not a passionate monarchist or an especially emotional person. But I thought, if this is my reaction then for many people who've been through far worse this will really be a point of no return.
    I wonder if the Queen thing was leaked internally and deliberately in a busy news cycle, fearing and expecting that otherwise it would come out later at a strategically more damaging time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,731
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,153
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    So I understand. But does this average include old men who have shrunk? Because it seems quite short to me.
    I am six foot, and of the cohort of friends I have from school who I still hang around with - 10 of us - I am the shortest. I can't think of any of my male friends who are shorter than 5' 10''.
    Exactly, you tallies won't even socialise with Joe Average, let alone the Sunaks.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    She's got name recognition.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,731
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    So I understand. But does this average include old men who have shrunk? Because it seems quite short to me.
    I am six foot, and of the cohort of friends I have from school who I still hang around with - 10 of us - I am the shortest. I can't think of any of my male friends who are shorter than 5' 10''.
    Warning: we are a mere step away from a lengthy discussion about Bozza's weight...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,731
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    She's got name recognition.

    Sure, and I'd love to see her as Potus – but I wonder whether there is much evidence that she'd win if she ran.


    As for MrEd's laughable "there is a very good chance that it will be Trumpton vs Hillary" – I'm still waiting for him to price up this very good chance...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,153

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/public-figures/all

    56% positive, 97% name recognition, only behind her husband.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,922

    Ex-trade minister brands Labour MP Barry Gardiner's links to Chinese spy "extremely concerning".

    Greg Hands warns: "We used to brief him [Gardiner] confidentially on complex & sensitive intl trade negotiations which certainly would have been of interest to the Chinese Govt"


    https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/1481944104980385792?s=21

    Having met Barry Gardiner professionally several times, I can tell you that the moment you start briefing him on anything "complex & sensitive" is exactly the moment you f—ed up.

    As Tim Shipman said on Twitter, 'Russian spies targeted Lib Dem Mike Hancock. The Chinese focused on Labour’s Barry Gardiner. You do have to wonder how this constitutes “intelligence”'.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    So I understand. But does this average include old men who have shrunk? Because it seems quite short to me.
    I am six foot, and of the cohort of friends I have from school who I still hang around with - 10 of us - I am the shortest. I can't think of any of my male friends who are shorter than 5' 10''.
    Exactly, you tallies won't even socialise with Joe Average, let alone the Sunaks.
    It's worse than that - clearly even what I consider the fairly modest height of 6' is so tall that those under 5' 10'' are invisible to us!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,575
    Mr. Sandpit, might well be a lab somewhere already working on it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,901
    edited January 14

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    That is an interesting one. If she really wants it I think she should be about 5/1 perhaps even less. Last time around she was crystal clear she was not interested. I was assuming nothing had changed but perhaps it has/will.
    Yes, my reasoning was that in the event of it becoming clear that Trump (or a creature of) is set to regain the White House against any Dem candidate but her there will be quite some pressure for her to do it - to save America as it were - and so 100/1 was far too big. I said it should be 33 and it just about now is.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209

    MrEd said:

    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
    There is not a 'very good chance' at all – that is ludicrous. What price would you give this 'very good chance'?
    Take a look at what has been happening with Hillary over the past few weeks.

    Price at the moment, I would probably give 8/1.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
    Yes. He detoxified the idea that electIng a Public School boy would mean a bumbling incompetent out of touch with, and incapable of communicating with your average voter who'd piss around thinking the rules don't apply to him.
    Unfortunately. Mean has been reverted to.
    There's an interesting cultural difference there - Eton being, well, Eton, and Fettes being a more usual sort of 'Public School' - one of the mid-C19 Arnold-style foundations. Which may have a bearing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,109
    Boris Johnson’s net favourability has dropped to another all-time low of -52

    Favourable: 20% (-4%)
    Unfavourable: 73% (+7%)

    (Changes from 8-9 Dec)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/14/boris-johnsons-net-favourability-drops-another-all
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited January 14
    I like the distinctions that Mike draws in the thread header. We have to remember that there are different circles here, only some of which overlap or even touch:

    1. Tory MPs

    2. Tory Membership

    3. The Electorate

    Johnson won two stunning victories (2016 and 2019) although we should remember they were with Dominic Cummings' considerable help. Indeed it's doubtful Boris would have had the capability to win without Dom. In 2019 he was also up against the most left-wing antisemite ever to stand for the office: totally unelectable in other words.

    Johnson is NOT popular with 1. Even at his nadir his victory among MPs was not stellar. He was brilliant with 3. but is now toxic.

    Liz may be favoured by 2. but I reckon she would tank with 3.

    Jeremy Hunt would be unpopular with 3. Whether fairly or not he comes across as stiff and will be associated with a mean side of Conservatism.

    Which leaves Rishi Sunak. I've no idea to be honest how he plays out with 1, 2, or 3. But as a left-leaning person who cannot wait for the tories to be booted out of office, it's Sunak I fear most.

    If they leave Boris Johnson in position Labour will win an outright majority.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,575
    Mr. Cookie, I'm 5'8".

    My grandpa used to claim the same height, which I fear was optimistic on his part.

    On the other side, my mother's father was a six footer and so were his almost dozen brothers. I suspect he didn't get picked on at school.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,109
    James Slack, deputy editor of the Sun, is at work in the newsroom as planned while also being at the centre of the biggest story in the country... it's claimed he had not told fellow Sun managers about his leaving do until contacted by Telegraph yesterday. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/14/james-slack-the-sun-deputy-editor-in-latest-no-10-party-scandal
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,698
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    True. But if the alternative is the nightmare of the return of Trump, I wonder if her husband could persuade her. Patriotic duty etc. Also worth remembering that much of Trump's focus was specifically on over-turning Obama's legacy, so there is a definite personal interest in quashing him.

    And, of course, who is the alternative? Is there a Democrat anywhere who looks as if they have the star quality to turn things round?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson’s net favourability has dropped to another all-time low of -52

    Favourable: 20% (-4%)
    Unfavourable: 73% (+7%)

    (Changes from 8-9 Dec)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/14/boris-johnsons-net-favourability-drops-another-all

    -53
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,109
    Breaking: Sue Gray is investigating the two Downing Street leaving events held the night before Prince Philip's funeral, @Telegraph understands. More on live blog shortly: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/14/boris-johnson-downing-street-parties-leadership-james-slack/
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,536
    On Farage wooing anti-vaxxers:

    He's spotted a decent-sized, very angry minority who will believe any old shit so long as it confirms their prejudices, who lack a political leader in the UK (Piers Corbyn?), and are made up of a quite a few fruitcakes and loonies. Just like old times!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson’s net favourability has dropped to another all-time low of -52

    Favourable: 20% (-4%)
    Unfavourable: 73% (+7%)

    (Changes from 8-9 Dec)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/14/boris-johnsons-net-favourability-drops-another-all

    I see he's heading down on the way to perhaps beat Mr Corbyn's worst. And he is already -77 in Scotland. Can't get much worse there, I think, though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,109
    Boris Johnson is now more unpopular among the British public than Theresa May was at any point during her time as prime minister. May reached a low of -49 points on 14-15 May 2019

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/14/boris-johnsons-net-favourability-drops-another-all?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=favourability https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481949280617304064/photo/1
  • FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/public-figures/all

    56% positive, 97% name recognition, only behind her husband.
    First ladies tend to be treated reasonably kindly (although I suppose Melania ran into some difficulties). It's quite a different game when you stand for elected office - people are gunning for you from your own side as well as the other, you can't rely on set-pieces and gaffes tend to occur.

    I'm not saying Michelle Obama wouldn't be great at handling these things - she impresses me as an individual. But the likelihood is that the only way would be down for her popularity just because of what it means to move into the arena of electoral politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    kamski said:

    On Farage wooing anti-vaxxers:

    He's spotted a decent-sized, very angry minority who will believe any old shit so long as it confirms their prejudices, who lack a political leader in the UK (Piers Corbyn?), and are made up of a quite a few fruitcakes and loonies. Just like old times!

    RefUK, the successor to Farage's Brexit Party, are on 6% with Yougov today on an anti vaxports, anti restrictions ticket. There is a market for it
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209
    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,157
    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    How can we know this - at present he’s CotE - he’s probably looked at the plans and said “that’s bollocks and a waste of money so snip”. As CotE it’s not his remit to say what he would do instead. If however he became PM then he might say “yes I cut the plans for HS123456 etc because they are bollocks - I think we should be doing this x y z thing up north with the money which would be better use rather than just pumping it all on a rail plan”.

    Boris is PM and wanted to do things a certain way and so the contenders have limited scope to do it differently and in Sunak’s case he really has one lever - he can’t sit in No 11 and shout about his own manifesto.

    So I honestly think so much of what we think of contenders based on what they have done in their cabinet roles is pretty moot until they have to stand there and project their own visions.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,731
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
    There is not a 'very good chance' at all – that is ludicrous. What price would you give this 'very good chance'?
    Take a look at what has been happening with Hillary over the past few weeks.

    Price at the moment, I would probably give 8/1.
    So an 11% chance then?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,901

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
    On these markets it takes about £20 to move someone from 100 to 40!
    That was probably me then!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,809
    Why did Boris miss so many COBRA Meetings?

    https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/6o0AAOSw1YNgN89n/s-l1600.jpg



  • Boris has to go, but it does raise questions about Whitehall's civil service drinks and party culture which is bound to see some civil servants in hot water but will it also see a change to employment rules relating to alcohol consumption
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,599

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    Not aware of polling. Michelle Obama would get the black American vote and probably most of the white college vote, which is where the Democrat coalition lies. That coalition can win as evidenced by the Georgia result in the last presidential.

    But as Obama has apparently no interest in running, there's little point in speculating.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,109
    Good stuff from @stephenkb in Morning Call..
    It’s one thing getting through the media round, quite another for Tory councillors going door-to-door. “Into the valley of death”..
    https://twitter.com/kaitborsay/status/1481949694582571015/photo/1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,963
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    Can they reach a consensus, mind?
    Bearing in mind he'd probably have gone already if they could.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,476

    eek said:
    Or in other words:

    "There really is one rule for us and another rule for you"

    That will go down really well. Guaranteed.
    Sometimes even if you have an out it is not worth it. Even Jim Hacker knew sometimes fessing up was the best option.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    True. But if the alternative is the nightmare of the return of Trump, I wonder if her husband could persuade her. Patriotic duty etc. Also worth remembering that much of Trump's focus was specifically on over-turning Obama's legacy, so there is a definite personal interest in quashing him.

    And, of course, who is the alternative? Is there a Democrat anywhere who looks as if they have the star quality to turn things round?
    The only Democrat candidate who has ever lost to Trump was Hillary.

    Even the near 80 geriatric Biden beat Trump but not Hillary.

    If the Democrats want to beat Trump pick Buttigieg, if the Democrats want to hand the presidency back to Trump on a plate pick Hillary again
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,098
    Latest EMA including latest YouGov poll show Labour 6% ahead and 26 seats short of an overall majority. (LibDems with 19 seats).

    If half the green vote of 6% goes to Labour, then Labour are 13 seats short of an overall majority.

    This is all under the new proposed boundaries.


  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    She's got name recognition.

    Sure, and I'd love to see her as Potus – but I wonder whether there is much evidence that she'd win if she ran.


    As for MrEd's laughable "there is a very good chance that it will be Trumpton vs Hillary" – I'm still waiting for him to price up this very good chance...
    Sent it to you a while back - got it now?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,963
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
    Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
    Nothing that legally says the PM cannot be in the Lords - although I imagine that there would be no such thing as a safe seat for a by-election these days, if a party tried to force one in such circumstances.
    Halifax turned down PMship in 1940 on account of being a Lord
    Is that so? I'd always assumed Labour wouldn't support him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,314
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
    Yes. He detoxified the idea that electIng a Public School boy would mean a bumbling incompetent out of touch with, and incapable of communicating with your average voter who'd piss around thinking the rules don't apply to him.
    Unfortunately. Mean has been reverted to.
    There's an interesting cultural difference there - Eton being, well, Eton, and Fettes being a more usual sort of 'Public School' - one of the mid-C19 Arnold-style foundations. Which may have a bearing.
    Hurd worked very hard to stop any resolution of the conflict in Yugoslavia - preventing any attempt to let the other groups defend themselves against the Serbs.

    Remember "Levelling the killing fields"?

    He and like minded people seem OK with the perpetual rounds of negotiations while Arkan & Co. did their thing.

    His anger when all that was swept away by Clinton authourising the arming of the Croats & Bosnians was palpable.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,393

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    I'm always a bit surprised by this - I am 5'11" but have never felt like I was taller than average.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    edited January 14
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
    Somebody's making some PredictIt traders very happy...
    https://twitter.com/jipkin/status/1481463620085104640
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,476

    Ex-trade minister brands Labour MP Barry Gardiner's links to Chinese spy "extremely concerning".

    Greg Hands warns: "We used to brief him [Gardiner] confidentially on complex & sensitive intl trade negotiations which certainly would have been of interest to the Chinese Govt"


    https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/1481944104980385792?s=21

    Having met Barry Gardiner professionally several times, I can tell you that the moment you start briefing him on anything "complex & sensitive" is exactly the moment you f—ed up.

    As Tim Shipman said on Twitter, 'Russian spies targeted Lib Dem Mike Hancock. The Chinese focused on Labour’s Barry Gardiner. You do have to wonder how this constitutes “intelligence”'.
    Go after the easily swayed and susceptible first. Have to start somewhere and it might open further doors.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    It's an extraordinary truism that, especially for charismatic types, just as you can be wildly popular you can just as readily become deeply unpopular.

    Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair both became toxic. Boris Johnson is now poison to the tories.

    I'm not sure they're stupid enough to leave him in position but they might. He won last time y'see ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    edited January 14
    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    Only poll with a Sunak led Tories v Starmer Labour was Tories 34% Labour 37% with Opinium and Sunak was the only candidate who increased the actual Tory voteshare
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
    There is not a 'very good chance' at all – that is ludicrous. What price would you give this 'very good chance'?
    Take a look at what has been happening with Hillary over the past few weeks.

    Price at the moment, I would probably give 8/1.
    So an 11% chance then?
    The betting price and the chance of it happening are not the same given the nomination is away, she is old and she has age issues.

    But, if you want a probably of it happening right now, I would say conservatively around 25%. If the Democrats get hammered in November, that rises. She is positioning herself as the candidate to push the Democrats back to the centre and there is no other possible candidate who is coming out with that at the moment, in part because they are locked into the messaging of the Democrats' agenda because they hold various official posts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,476

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    So I understand. But does this average include old men who have shrunk? Because it seems quite short to me.
    I am six foot, and of the cohort of friends I have from school who I still hang around with - 10 of us - I am the shortest. I can't think of any of my male friends who are shorter than 5' 10''.
    Exactly, you tallies won't even socialise with Joe Average, let alone the Sunaks.
    Perhaps he just overlooked his shorter friends.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    But Liz Truss loses them and more. On competence there are clearly huge questions around Boris and despite the spin Liz Truss has done very little on trade post-Brexit. Yes there was a good period where she refocused the whole government into getting existing deals in the bank but beyond that it's all been crap and the MPs have started to notice that one of the major reasons we left hasn't been exploited and it's because Liz Truss is not very good.

    As others have said Boris was lightning in a bottle, he brought lots of disparate voters together and got 44%. The Tories aren't going to do that again for a while. Rishi gets them to something like 39-41% which is more than enough for a majority. Liz Truss simply won't do that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,314

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/public-figures/all

    56% positive, 97% name recognition, only behind her husband.
    First ladies tend to be treated reasonably kindly (although I suppose Melania ran into some difficulties). It's quite a different game when you stand for elected office - people are gunning for you from your own side as well as the other, you can't rely on set-pieces and gaffes tend to occur.

    I'm not saying Michelle Obama wouldn't be great at handling these things - she impresses me as an individual. But the likelihood is that the only way would be down for her popularity just because of what it means to move into the arena of electoral politics.
    Two downsides -

    1) Family connections as a way into politics after Bush II are a massive negative to many in US.
    2) She hasn't run for elective office. Hillary ran for the Senate, first (promising not to abandon her seat to run for President, no less)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,476

    Mr. Cookie, I'm 5'8".

    You tall bastard.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371

    Boris has to go, but it does raise questions about Whitehall's civil service drinks and party culture which is bound to see some civil servants in hot water but will it also see a change to employment rules relating to alcohol consumption

    That would be a shame. Part of the attraction of working in the civil service is presumably the sociability of it.
    The problem wasn't that there was drinking going on - I have worked in places with drinking cultures in the past which have been perfectly functional. The problem was that there socialising going on at the same time as people were being told not to socialise.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    Only poll with a Sunak led Tories v Starmer Labour was Tories 34% Labour 37% with Opinium and Sunak was the only candidate who increased the actual Tory voteshare
    That's before the benefits of office are factored in.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371
    Ooh, 5,000th post!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,414
    Tweets that have aged well, an on going series

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1444875013828452353
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,314

    Boris has to go, but it does raise questions about Whitehall's civil service drinks and party culture which is bound to see some civil servants in hot water but will it also see a change to employment rules relating to alcohol consumption

    The private sector rules on alcohol (open container = sacking offence, in many places) are for legal liability/insurance reasons, I believe.

    Any legal experts care to comment?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209
    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    But Liz Truss loses them and more. On competence there are clearly huge questions around Boris and despite the spin Liz Truss has done very little on trade post-Brexit. Yes there was a good period where she refocused the whole government into getting existing deals in the bank but beyond that it's all been crap and the MPs have started to notice that one of the major reasons we left hasn't been exploited and it's because Liz Truss is not very good.

    As others have said Boris was lightning in a bottle, he brought lots of disparate voters together and got 44%. The Tories aren't going to do that again for a while. Rishi gets them to something like 39-41% which is more than enough for a majority. Liz Truss simply won't do that.
    I think Truss won't be leader either and for more reasons than Rishi.

    I said it a few days back but I think it will be an outsider. There are too many groupings in the Tory party (RW, anti-lockdown, ERG) that are not going to let the Tory establishment shoo in one of their own and return to a Cameron-style PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    edited January 14
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    Only poll with a Sunak led Tories v Starmer Labour was Tories 34% Labour 37% with Opinium and Sunak was the only candidate who increased the actual Tory voteshare
    That's before the benefits of office are factored in.
    Even Brown and May got a brief benefits of office poll bounce, it did not last.

    Only Major and Boris sustained poll bounces as new midterm PMs due to major policy differences with their predecessor on the poll tax and Brexit respectively. The differences between Boris and Sunak are more personal than policy wise
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,575
    Mr. kle4, tremble at my mighty stature, puny hobbit!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    edited January 14
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
    There is not a 'very good chance' at all – that is ludicrous. What price would you give this 'very good chance'?
    Take a look at what has been happening with Hillary over the past few weeks.

    Price at the moment, I would probably give 8/1.
    So an 11% chance then?
    The betting price and the chance of it happening are not the same given the nomination is away, she is old and she has age issues.

    But, if you want a probably of it happening right now, I would say conservatively around 25%. If the Democrats get hammered in November, that rises. She is positioning herself as the candidate to push the Democrats back to the centre and there is no other possible candidate who is coming out with that at the moment, in part because they are locked into the messaging of the Democrats' agenda because they hold various official posts.
    I don't understand how that's supposed to win her the primary. The only reason the Dems would nominate a candidate who said that Joe Biden was too left-wing would be if they thought it was going to win them the election and keep out Trump. But when it comes to a candidate who can sell the message "I can beat Donald Trump", Hillary Clinton is literally the *worst person in the world*.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,853
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    So I understand. But does this average include old men who have shrunk? Because it seems quite short to me.
    I am six foot, and of the cohort of friends I have from school who I still hang around with - 10 of us - I am the shortest. I can't think of any of my male friends who are shorter than 5' 10''.
    It may include old men who were never very tall. When doctors moan about porkers, one wonders if they have missed that average height has increased over the years, not just weight. And some ethnic groups are, on average, taller or shorter than others.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,476
    edited January 14
    Alistair said:

    Tweets that have aged well, an on going series

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1444875013828452353

    The most vicious hatred can arise between those who once loved one another. See countless tales of marital breakdown and parental rights disputes.

    Boris stirs passions and that always included negative ones as well as positive. He's changing the ratio.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,356
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
    Er, point of order. Fettes isn't anything like so mediaeval or Establishment. Much more of a mainstream [edit] Public School in the Arnoldian sense.
    Quite so. It is much less exclusive. My quite ordinary friend got his son into Fettes' final years no bother without going on a waiting list. In fact it was easier than Edinburgh's fee-paying Merchant Company schools, and not much different in price.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,575
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,476

    Mr. kle4, tremble at my mighty stature, puny hobbit!

    I'm focusing of growing the stature I can control, by getting wider.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,963
    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    There is another point, which I hesitate to raise, but I'm sure others have thought about, too.
    And that is the unknown percentage who simply will not vote for, and will go out of their way to vote against, someone not white.
    Now. It isn't right and shouldn't happen, but, it will.
    In a close election it might make all the difference.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,891

    rkrkrk said:

    This is good: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/01/the-situation-for-the-tories-is-worse-than-you-think

    "What should worry the Tories now is that the Johnsonian advantage in the marginal seats is now in tatters. Voters are angry everywhere, but they’re especially so in the marginals that matter. That’s what makes this situation far more worrisome for the Tories than the national polls would imply. In the seats that Labour lost in 2019, the Labour lead is larger than in the national polls. Similarly, Johnson’s favourability numbers are now worse in the marginals than the country at large."

    What worries me is that not many voters seem to be shifting to Labour.
    Tories staying home makes the polls look good, but in practice, won't Tory supporting papers find some tax bombshell headline and get people motivated to vote again?
    Tory supporting papers have a fraction of the circulations they once had
    Not needed now anyway. Message can be sent out through adverts on social media from temporary astroturf groups.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,314
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
    Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
    Nothing that legally says the PM cannot be in the Lords - although I imagine that there would be no such thing as a safe seat for a by-election these days, if a party tried to force one in such circumstances.
    Halifax turned down PMship in 1940 on account of being a Lord
    Is that so? I'd always assumed Labour wouldn't support him.
    Halifax was acceptable to the Labour party, I believe. He used the Lords things as an easy out - he stated in his diaries that he was concerned that if he took the job, it would be a re-run of Asquith vs Lloyd George in WWI.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,785
    Definitely more playable than the original.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,847

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    I thought Morduant was one of the more sensible ministers in Johnson's government but saw this speech by her, which is Peppa-the-pig level bonkers. Bear in mind she is trade minister trying to drive outcomes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    Michelle Obama would be a great Democrat pick for POTUS. Unfortunately she has shown a huge disinclination to go for the job.
    Is there any polling evidence that she would beat Trump (or generic GOP)?
    https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/public-figures/all

    56% positive, 97% name recognition, only behind her husband.
    First ladies tend to be treated reasonably kindly (although I suppose Melania ran into some difficulties). It's quite a different game when you stand for elected office - people are gunning for you from your own side as well as the other, you can't rely on set-pieces and gaffes tend to occur.

    I'm not saying Michelle Obama wouldn't be great at handling these things - she impresses me as an individual. But the likelihood is that the only way would be down for her popularity just because of what it means to move into the arena of electoral politics.
    Two downsides -

    1) Family connections as a way into politics after Bush II are a massive negative to many in US.
    2) She hasn't run for elective office. Hillary ran for the Senate, first (promising not to abandon her seat to run for President, no less)

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
    I'm always a bit surprised by this - I am 5'11" but have never felt like I was taller than average.
    Everyone else wears high heels.

    But the language changes :smile:

    Remember that calling an MG "Midget" is - since yesterday - evil. Apparently.

    We now need a new word for "coloured" crayons.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    There is another point, which I hesitate to raise, but I'm sure others have thought about, too.
    And that is the unknown percentage who simply will not vote for, and will go out of their way to vote against, someone not white.
    Now. It isn't right and shouldn't happen, but, it will.
    In a close election it might make all the difference.
    I'd say that is such a small minority it is effectively balanced by those who will be motivated to vote for someone who is non-white.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,741
    edited January 14

    Why did Boris miss so many COBRA Meetings?




    Was he round the offie getting the post-meeting drinks?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,515

    kinabalu said:

    Things are getting so strange, though, don't people think? Djokovic is kicked out of Oz by an Immigration Minister called Hawke. Downing St parties breaking all the Covid rules are thrown by a man called Slack. I've never been a buyer of the avant garde theory that the world we think we see is actually a simulation being run for the amusement of a higher being but I'm starting to wonder.

    You missed the bit about the world no1 tennis player being a suspected antivaxxer named Novak. I am surprised The Sun hasn't had a headline "No-vax Novak has no visa "
    One wonders if the man does any hoovering.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,853
    edited January 14
    kle4 said:

    Ex-trade minister brands Labour MP Barry Gardiner's links to Chinese spy "extremely concerning".

    Greg Hands warns: "We used to brief him [Gardiner] confidentially on complex & sensitive intl trade negotiations which certainly would have been of interest to the Chinese Govt"


    https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/1481944104980385792?s=21

    Having met Barry Gardiner professionally several times, I can tell you that the moment you start briefing him on anything "complex & sensitive" is exactly the moment you f—ed up.

    As Tim Shipman said on Twitter, 'Russian spies targeted Lib Dem Mike Hancock. The Chinese focused on Labour’s Barry Gardiner. You do have to wonder how this constitutes “intelligence”'.
    Go after the easily swayed and susceptible first. Have to start somewhere and it might open further doors.
    To be fair to Russia, the KGB did try to recruit David Cameron. The Daily Mail's front page is interesting. China gave money to Labour and "targeted our PMs"; no mention of party for the Prime Ministers in question. One cannot hope to bribe or twist, etc.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-59989736
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    He's beaten May in one sense:

    Boris Johnson is now more unpopular among the British public than Theresa May was at any point during her time as prime minister. May reached a low of -49 points on 14-15 May 2019

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/14/boris-johnsons-net-favourability-drops-another-all?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=favourability


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481949280617304064?s=20
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    There is another point, which I hesitate to raise, but I'm sure others have thought about, too.
    And that is the unknown percentage who simply will not vote for, and will go out of their way to vote against, someone not white.
    Now. It isn't right and shouldn't happen, but, it will.
    In a close election it might make all the difference.
    Personally, I think - for the MPs themselves - that will be a very small percentage. What might be a larger percentage are those MPs who are thinking about how their constituents will act.

    TBH, I think the other factors are more important plus, as we discussed this morning, his height, for which there is a fair bit of evidence to suggest it plays a part
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,963
    edited January 14
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    There is another point, which I hesitate to raise, but I'm sure others have thought about, too.
    And that is the unknown percentage who simply will not vote for, and will go out of their way to vote against, someone not white.
    Now. It isn't right and shouldn't happen, but, it will.
    In a close election it might make all the difference.
    I'd say that is such a small minority it is effectively balanced by those who will be motivated to vote for someone who is non-white.
    You would? OK maybe.
    I was thinking of some of my relatives. It certainly wouldn't be balanced there.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,856
    Alistair said:

    Tweets that have aged well, an on going series

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1444875013828452353

    There was a moment when Boris was what everyone wanted. Then suddenly he wasn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    edited January 14
    geoffw said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
    Er, point of order. Fettes isn't anything like so mediaeval or Establishment. Much more of a mainstream [edit] Public School in the Arnoldian sense.
    Quite so. It is much less exclusive. My quite ordinary friend got his son into Fettes' final years no bother without going on a waiting list. In fact it was easier than Edinburgh's fee-paying Merchant Company schools, and not much different in price.

    Nonetheless Blair was the first public school educated PM since Home.

    He enabled the Tories to pick a public school educated leader in Cameron again after the state grammar educated Heath, Thatcher, Major and Howard and state comprehensive educated Hague and state secondary modern educated IDS
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Closing on Corbyn (which is going some, given Corbyn's Salisbury response):

    Boris Johnson is now almost as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn was at his lowest ebb:

    Boris Johnson, 12 Jan 2022: -52 net favourability
    Jeremy Corbyn, 3 Jun 2019: -55

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/14/boris-johnsons-net-favourability-drops-another-all?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=favourability


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481950877577527298?s=20
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,853
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    There is another point, which I hesitate to raise, but I'm sure others have thought about, too.
    And that is the unknown percentage who simply will not vote for, and will go out of their way to vote against, someone not white.
    Now. It isn't right and shouldn't happen, but, it will.
    In a close election it might make all the difference.
    I doubt racism will alter many votes, and thanks to constituency-based FPTP, even if it does, it will not make much difference to a general election. If it has any impact, it is more likely in the leadership election where there is only one pool of votes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,847
    edited January 14
    boulay said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    How can we know this - at present he’s CotE - he’s probably looked at the plans and said “that’s bollocks and a waste of money so snip”. As CotE it’s not his remit to say what he would do instead. If however he became PM then he might say “yes I cut the plans for HS123456 etc because they are bollocks - I think we should be doing this x y z thing up north with the money which would be better use rather than just pumping it all on a rail plan”.

    Boris is PM and wanted to do things a certain way and so the contenders have limited scope to do it differently and in Sunak’s case he really has one lever - he can’t sit in No 11 and shout about his own manifesto.

    So I honestly think so much of what we think of contenders based on what they have done in their cabinet roles is pretty moot until they have to stand there and project their own visions.
    I thought that meant Church of England for a moment.

    is the office of Chancellor of the Exchequer older than the nationalisation of the English Church in 15xx?

    I expect it is. Did King Alfred have one?

    I think it is perhaps fair to call Hunt a survivor, given how long he stayed at Health. However, May was also a survivor at the Home Office, so it may not be a recommendation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,963
    edited January 14
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
    If it's up to MPs then Rishi has it, I think.
    Nope, Rishi is not a natural RW backer and his decision to cut back on rail infrastructure will be used to hammer him in those seats. Take a look at the MP base and where it comes from. Radically different from 2019.
    Competence will be the key driver in the next selection. That plus not Boris will get the Tories back into the high 30s with the public which is enough to hold onto a working majority. Liz Truss suffers from a credibility gap for the top job.
    That might be true but he probably loses those 2019 RW MPs their seats whilst preserving the Tories' traditional constituencies. He's a publicly-school educated, Oxford PPE graduate who worked at a hedge fund and is married to the daughter of a billionare. And his policies (bar furlough) have not been RW friendly.

    Again, why would those MPs vote for a candidate who will probably lose them their seats?

    As for competence, that is possible but BJ's not out over competence (in the bigger picture, the UK has done very well as you flagged). We are shifting towards cultural values driving votes and Rishi doesn't fit well with where the Tories are positioning themselves.
    There is another point, which I hesitate to raise, but I'm sure others have thought about, too.
    And that is the unknown percentage who simply will not vote for, and will go out of their way to vote against, someone not white.
    Now. It isn't right and shouldn't happen, but, it will.
    In a close election it might make all the difference.
    Personally, I think - for the MPs themselves - that will be a very small percentage. What might be a larger percentage are those MPs who are thinking about how their constituents will act.

    TBH, I think the other factors are more important plus, as we discussed this morning, his height, for which there is a fair bit of evidence to suggest it plays a part
    Yes. I did mean constituents.
    And. As I said it is unknown anyway.
    The height thing is a totally ludicrous metric btw. But there's nowt as queer as folk I guess.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson’s net favourability has dropped to another all-time low of -52

    Favourable: 20% (-4%)
    Unfavourable: 73% (+7%)

    (Changes from 8-9 Dec)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/14/boris-johnsons-net-favourability-drops-another-all

    -53
    It's a sobering thought that even among those who still rate him favourably, about three quarters of them think he's a liar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,901
    edited January 14

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    I hope you're right - it's just 'wrong' to have this man as PM - but I'm finding it hard to be confident he's going. It will be an amazing fall if it happens. Just 2 years after winning the best Con majority since Thatcher, only a few months since Hartlepool and looking stronger than ever, and with the pandemic that's been the only domestic story for so long on its way out, he gets the chop. It would be quite a thing. And it's when I look at it this way, the impressionistic big picture rather than the febrile daily developments, that I veer towards him surviving.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
    There is not a 'very good chance' at all – that is ludicrous. What price would you give this 'very good chance'?
    Take a look at what has been happening with Hillary over the past few weeks.

    Price at the moment, I would probably give 8/1.
    So an 11% chance then?
    The betting price and the chance of it happening are not the same given the nomination is away, she is old and she has age issues.

    But, if you want a probably of it happening right now, I would say conservatively around 25%. If the Democrats get hammered in November, that rises. She is positioning herself as the candidate to push the Democrats back to the centre and there is no other possible candidate who is coming out with that at the moment, in part because they are locked into the messaging of the Democrats' agenda because they hold various official posts.
    I don't understand how that's supposed to win her the primary. The only reason the Dems would nominate a candidate who said that Joe Biden was too left-wing would be if they thought it was going to win them the election and keep out Trump. But when it comes to a candidate who can sell the message "I can beat Donald Trump", Hillary Clinton is literally the *worst person in the world*.
    Exactly, Buttigieg might be able to do that, Hillary absolutely could not
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,209

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
    There is not a 'very good chance' at all – that is ludicrous. What price would you give this 'very good chance'?
    Take a look at what has been happening with Hillary over the past few weeks.

    Price at the moment, I would probably give 8/1.
    So an 11% chance then?
    The betting price and the chance of it happening are not the same given the nomination is away, she is old and she has age issues.

    But, if you want a probably of it happening right now, I would say conservatively around 25%. If the Democrats get hammered in November, that rises. She is positioning herself as the candidate to push the Democrats back to the centre and there is no other possible candidate who is coming out with that at the moment, in part because they are locked into the messaging of the Democrats' agenda because they hold various official posts.
    I don't understand how that's supposed to win her the primary. The only reason the Dems would nominate a candidate who said that Joe Biden was too left-wing would be if they thought it was going to win them the election and keep out Trump. But when it comes to a candidate who can sell the message "I can beat Donald Trump", Hillary Clinton is literally the *worst person in the world*.
    True but there are signs a good bit of the Democrat establishment is getting behind her and her message will be that "I told you so" about Trump. Biden's polling ratings are awful (he's down to just over 30% approval in Quinnipac) and, when you get the NYT and WSJ both suggesting in different ways that Harris shouldn't be the 2024 pick, it's a sign the establishment has given up on her.

    PS don't mention Buttigeig - he will get crushed. Did nothing as Mayor and, as one commentator put it, he is only seen as a candidate because he is gay - he has no other features that would recommend him for the job.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,731
    edited January 14
    Smarkets appear to be offering 87/1 on Hillary being nominee... presumably @MrEd has put his house on it?
This discussion has been closed.