Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Hunt now a clear third place in Johnson successor betting – politicalbetting.com

245678

Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,436

    This is good: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/01/the-situation-for-the-tories-is-worse-than-you-think

    "What should worry the Tories now is that the Johnsonian advantage in the marginal seats is now in tatters. Voters are angry everywhere, but they’re especially so in the marginals that matter. That’s what makes this situation far more worrisome for the Tories than the national polls would imply. In the seats that Labour lost in 2019, the Labour lead is larger than in the national polls. Similarly, Johnson’s favourability numbers are now worse in the marginals than the country at large."

    What worries me is that not many voters seem to be shifting to Labour.
    Tories staying home makes the polls look good, but in practice, won't Tory supporting papers find some tax bombshell headline and get people motivated to vote again?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,268
    edited January 14
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    "Inexplicable" is a good way of putting it. It is a challenge to comprehend just how utterly stupid Johnson's behaviour has been. If at the time of lockdown you had said "And of course they are having nightly parties at 10 Downing Street " this would be seen as totally ridiculous and obviously defamatory and you would be seen as weirdly demented.

    (By the way is BDS still a thing? Had a lot of currency on these pages)
    It's the absence of what should have passed through the mind of any leader, having enacted such an unprecedented set of draconian new laws, which is that it was their role and duty to lead by setting a good example.

    Or even the thinking of a more calculating politician, able to foresee the damage that would be done if they were found not to be following their own rules.
    We know Boris has a long history of thinking rules are optional for him and clearly fostered this culture, but you have to wonder about all of the staff in #10. Acting like teenagers when their parents have gone out, sending the oldest looking one to the offie to load up on booze. No wonder #10 as a whole seems to be constantly crap.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,330

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    Unless they have a death wish I can't think of a worse argument than "well here's the funny thing, it turns out that the rules never applied to us in the first place."
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
    I might now given Brexit is done, Hunt is also the most pro life of the potential candidates
    Brexit is about as done as a half-cooked turkey.
    and about as unpalatable and poisonous.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,816
    edited January 14
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Lab 335, Con 214, SNP 59, LD 17, Green 1 according to Electoral Calculus

    @HYUFD will be along any moment to explain why that's a good poll for the Tories.
    59 out of 59

    Can’t get any clearer.

    Full results:
    YouGov 12-13 January (+/- change from YouGov 11-12 January)

    Lab 40% (+2)
    Con 29% (+1)
    LD 11% (-2)
    Grn 6% (-1)
    Ref 6% (+2)
    SNP 5% (nc)
    oth 1% (-2)

    The Times
    If Labour win most seats the SNP will not get indyref2, if the Tories win again the SNP will not get indyref2 no matter how many Scottish seats they win.

    Only way SNP get indyref2 is a hung parliament with Tories most seats but less than Labour and SNP
    You’re my hero! Whoever would have thought that a Plaid Cymru parish councillor would be handed the immense privilege of writing the next Labour Party manifesto. Congratulations!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,816

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.

    The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.

    Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.

    So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
    How many seats are the Tories defending?
    Somewhere around 1,500, I think, but spread all over the place mostly in small opposition groups on Labour councils
    So could lose a lot of seats but few councils. Damaging to morale, but not as bad as it could be.
    The AV system in Scotland should help stem the losses as well. Indeed the Tories north of the border may buck the trend a bit.
    Not AV but STV: Single Transferable Vote.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
    Tell Adam, not me. I’ve seen you make the identical point at least 200 times before. Perhaps Adam has never read PB and it will therefore be a novel take for him?
    I just have, on twitter
    Good boy! I’m sure that Adam will consider it to be an invaluable contribution to saving the Union.
    It's also interesting to see a Tory not going the too wee too poor too stupid route. Or is Mr Morris still a Tory? I don't know him.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,816

    There will come a time when having been a remainer will be a plus in CON leadership contests.

    Liz is 4/1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,905
    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    "Inexplicable" is a good way of putting it. It is a challenge to comprehend just how utterly stupid Johnson's behaviour has been. If at the time of lockdown you had said "And of course they are having nightly parties at 10 Downing Street " this would be seen as totally ridiculous and obviously defamatory and you would be seen as weirdly demented.

    (By the way is BDS still a thing? Had a lot of currency on these pages)
    It's the absence of what should have passed through the mind of any leader, having enacted such an unprecedented set of draconian new laws, which is that it was their role and duty to lead by setting a good example.

    Or even the thinking of a more calculating politician, able to foresee the damage that would be done if they were found not to be following their own rules.
    We know Boris has a long history of thinking rules are optional for him and clearly fostered this culture, but you have to wonder about all of the staff in #10. Acting like teenagers when their parents have gone out, sending the oldest looking one to the offie to load up on booze. No wonder #10 as a whole seems to be constantly crap.
    I think what really did it for me was the comment by one of us - was it OKC? - that the suitcase was a real giveaway they knew it was wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    It was Thatcher making Major her heir apparent when she resigned and Tebbit not running that won it for Major
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
    I might now given Brexit is done, Hunt is also the most pro life of the potential candidates
    Brexit is about as done as a half-cooked turkey.
    and about as unpalatable and poisonous.
    Indeed, and the longer one leaves it the more it festers. Vide the failure to sort out inward customs - for which the nasty furriners cannot be blamed. Ditto breaking up the UK along the Irish Sea.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,216
    rkrkrk said:

    This is good: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/01/the-situation-for-the-tories-is-worse-than-you-think

    "What should worry the Tories now is that the Johnsonian advantage in the marginal seats is now in tatters. Voters are angry everywhere, but they’re especially so in the marginals that matter. That’s what makes this situation far more worrisome for the Tories than the national polls would imply. In the seats that Labour lost in 2019, the Labour lead is larger than in the national polls. Similarly, Johnson’s favourability numbers are now worse in the marginals than the country at large."

    What worries me is that not many voters seem to be shifting to Labour.
    Tories staying home makes the polls look good, but in practice, won't Tory supporting papers find some tax bombshell headline and get people motivated to vote again?
    Tory supporting papers have a fraction of the circulations they once had
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Hunt is basically the British Mitt Romney, Sunak the Tory David Miliband
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    It was Thatcher making Major her heir apparent when she resigned and Tebbit not running that won it for Major
    As I say, I remember it well, and my point still stands. He was not even close to being favourite.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,855
    eek said:

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    May wasn't a coronation, Howard was a coronation.
    It was effectively.
    Not really - it was a comedy of errors as everyone except May either screwed up or was knifed leaving May as the last one standing.
    Importantly, Leadsom was pressured to drop out so that members did not get to decide, and May replaced Cameron a lot sooner than the latter had expected or hoped.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,210
    algarkirk said:

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    Possible. They also did it with Howard. I think unlikely though.
    Impossible, I suspect. The Tory party is as split now as it was at the time when the referendum was the only way to heal the party.

    Hunt is of course by miles the best option, though it is not possible to see how he gets through the voting process, and of course would appeal to a very different constituency from Boris; which may take time to recover.

    Perhaps the Tories should tell themselves that the next election is a good one to lose.

    Hunt handling the post Brexit process would be quite a test.

    Those pushing Hunt are the typical, middle-class pro-Remain Tory MPs of old who, in most cases, have very nice majorities and are a bit sniffy that their party now contains a bunch of plebs from the North and Midlands.

    Those latter MPs are well aware that Hunt would probably be a disaster in those seats - comes across as smarmy and smug, is a Remainer, has no understanding of the issues facing their constituencies. The people pushing Hunt are the same sort of people who swoon over 'Dishy Rishi'.

    Those MPs are - I think - not likely to be the turkeys that vote for Christmas. They will be looking for a candidate that can at least come across as understanding their voters' concerns.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,486



    Why is Patel completely absent from the odds?

    A malign and ludicrous individual that's too toxic even for the tories.


  • HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,065

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:

    “The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.

    Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.

    The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.

    Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?

    Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?

    … his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409

    "Inexplicable" is a good way of putting it. It is a challenge to comprehend just how utterly stupid Johnson's behaviour has been. If at the time of lockdown you had said "And of course they are having nightly parties at 10 Downing Street " this would be seen as totally ridiculous and obviously defamatory and you would be seen as weirdly demented.

    (By the way is BDS still a thing? Had a lot of currency on these pages)
    It's the absence of what should have passed through the mind of any leader, having enacted such an unprecedented set of draconian new laws, which is that it was their role and duty to lead by setting a good example.

    Or even the thinking of a more calculating politician, able to foresee the damage that would be done if they were found not to be following their own rules.
    We know Boris has a long history of thinking rules are optional for him and clearly fostered this culture, but you have to wonder about all of the staff in #10. Acting like teenagers when their parents have gone out, sending the oldest looking one to the offie to load up on booze. No wonder #10 as a whole seems to be constantly crap.
    In seriousness, haven't there been articles from those close to number ten pretty much describing that it is exactly this sort of chaotic disorganised outfit that Boris presides over?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,679
    .
    eek said:

    Hunt is safety first option. Nowhere near any of these parties or direct decisions over COVID or Brexit deal.

    Obviously people will go on about the not being prepared for a pandemic, but i thinks its an irrelevance, as its a complex story and all ifs, buts and maybes.

    He has actually had a good COVID, made more sensible suggestions than the opposition.

    He is by far the best option. Tempting then to cynically suggest the selctorate will pass him by, but on occasion they get it right, as they did with Cameron v Davis (IMO)
    Could MPs engineer a May-style coronation?
    May wasn't a coronation, Howard was a coronation.
    It was effectively.
    Not really - it was a comedy of errors as everyone except May either screwed up or was knifed leaving May as the last one standing.
    Which is another possible route for Hunt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,855
    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,078
    glw said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    Unless they have a death wish I can't think of a worse argument than "well here's the funny thing, it turns out that the rules never applied to us in the first place."
    The thing is though, that politicians consciously exempt themselves from laws all the time. Many of them might well be surprised to find they weren’t exempt from these laws too.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Correct, but at this stage (when she was still in power but losing her grip) he was not among those that people seriously thought of as her successor IMO.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,065

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
    I might now given Brexit is done, Hunt is also the most pro life of the potential candidates
    Brexit is about as done as a half-cooked turkey.
    and about as unpalatable and poisonous.
    we'll be very lucky if, when it is done, it'll turn out so bland and tasteless.

    and, of course, it always comes with sprouts. Brussels sprouts, no less.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    Dura_Ace said:



    Why is Patel completely absent from the odds?

    A malign and ludicrous individual that's too toxic even for the tories.


    Is she attempting a goosestep there? Pretty good impression if not.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,698

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,210
    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554
    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    Do they think the public will give a flying feck that they might have some legal exemption because it was land belonging to the Crown?

    F*cking desperate.
    The same Crown which they have insulted by partying on the morning of the D of E's funeral?
    Oh now you're excercised by affronts to the Monarch.
    Me? I'm merely objectively considering the logical absurdity and indeed irony of that argument, and what the electorate as a whole would make of it. The 'insult' was an allusion to TSE's posting earlier, but it is certainly valid in that sense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,905
    Things are getting so strange, though, don't people think? Djokovic is kicked out of Oz by an Immigration Minister called Hawke. Downing St parties breaking all the Covid rules are thrown by a man called Slack. I've never been a buyer of the avant garde theory that the world we think we see is actually a simulation being run for the amusement of a higher being but I'm starting to wonder.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554
    kinabalu said:

    Things are getting so strange, though, don't people think? Djokovic is kicked out of Oz by an Immigration Minister called Hawke. Downing St parties breaking all the Covid rules are thrown by a man called Slack. I've never been a buyer of the avant garde theory that the world we think we see is actually a simulation being run for the amusement of a higher being but I'm starting to wonder.

    New Scientist used to have a running para in its back page roundup on examples of nominative determinism. Surprising how many there are.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,420
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    This was trotted out last year after the first party was revealed. It doesn't have a leg to stand on.

    The Covid laws have a "Not Withstanding" provision in them which means they do apply.
    It won't wash in the court of public opinion, that's for sure.
    The Spectator tried to use this to do a "Gov critics are reckless vigilantes" thing back at the start of December but even for them it felt a half arsed effort: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-the-downing-street-party-break-the-law
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    More like Buttigieg than either in my view
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591

    Dura_Ace said:



    Why is Patel completely absent from the odds?

    A malign and ludicrous individual that's too toxic even for the tories.


    Is she attempting a goosestep there? Pretty good impression if not.
    At the year end when most of the serious newspapers were doing their iconic pictures from 2021 this one was notable by it's absence. It would have been on my list. It hits the parts that even Boris Johnson dressed as a district nurse couldn't reach.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    kinabalu said:

    Things are getting so strange, though, don't people think? Djokovic is kicked out of Oz by an Immigration Minister called Hawke. Downing St parties breaking all the Covid rules are thrown by a man called Slack. I've never been a buyer of the avant garde theory that the world we think we see is actually a simulation being run for the amusement of a higher being but I'm starting to wonder.

    You missed the bit about the world no1 tennis player being a suspected antivaxxer named Novak. I am surprised The Sun hasn't had a headline "No-vax Novak has no visa "
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,690
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt would be the anti Boris, serious, no scandal, dull as ditchwater and heavyweight as a former Foreign and Health Secretary and cttee chair. He has more stature than Truss and is not tainted by links to Cummings like Sunak.

    However Hunt is more pro restriction than Boris and was a Remainer which may not adhere him to the Tory base still as he failed to attract them in 2019 either

    Would you back him? If not then who.

    And this "Tory base" - describe the profile if you would.
    I might now given Brexit is done, Hunt is also the most pro life of the potential candidates
    And Priti is the most pro-death.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,905
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,503
    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    edited January 14

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,210
    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,905
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Things are getting so strange, though, don't people think? Djokovic is kicked out of Oz by an Immigration Minister called Hawke. Downing St parties breaking all the Covid rules are thrown by a man called Slack. I've never been a buyer of the avant garde theory that the world we think we see is actually a simulation being run for the amusement of a higher being but I'm starting to wonder.

    New Scientist used to have a running para in its back page roundup on examples of nominative determinism. Surprising how many there are.
    Indeed - coincidences in general are ten a penny. Almost nothing in this world more common than extraordinary coincidences.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    You were right, they were.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,210
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
    That's true so well done, that was a good trading call (and maybe more). But take a look at what has been happening with HRC over the past few weeks.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,922

    Get rid of the likes of Patel, Rees-Mogg and Dorries. No more jokers.

    I like the idea, but in practice what that gives you is a group of "bastards" (© John Major) on the back-benches. ERG/CRG with superpowers and a sense of being wronged.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,965

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    As
    @patrickkmaguire
    says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”

    That your ordinary punter hasn't heard of her is something I've been gently trying to point out.
    The pandemic and the personality of the PM has greatly overshadowed the rest of politics.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,111
    "We are very clear that there were real mistakes made," says Liz Truss, after the details of the 16 April parties are read out to her. You have to wonder how long cabinet ministers are going to want to be subjected to this. https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1481938550144835587
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Must have been a disappointment, having to make do with that as second best, not being able to find a Plaid Cymru Society there.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 890
    Boris' time as PM seems to have been entirely predictable. He was a popular character who won a general election on the back of it. That chummy popularity with a love for partying and having fun is what will bring him down. He needs to go now.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,153
    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    That is an interesting one. If she really wants it I think she should be about 5/1 perhaps even less. Last time around she was crystal clear she was not interested. I was assuming nothing had changed but perhaps it has/will.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    ..a further thought on your very valid post. The reality was that most Tory party members had the wrong priorities. They prized popularity over competence, and combined this with paranoia about him being a "remainer". We, and the Tory Party also, are all paying the price of that dumb priority.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,855
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,567
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    It was Thatcher making Major her heir apparent when she resigned and Tebbit not running that won it for Major
    I can't see Boris throwing his support behind a successor, and unlike Thatcher, I doubt it would make much positive difference if he did.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,816
    edited January 14
    Edit
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,153
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
    On these markets it takes about £20 to move someone from 100 to 40!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,599

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    I have heard stories of people finding out about the parties, thinking about what they were doing at the time and bursting into tears. It's been a long, unnatural and stressful period. Partygate was a psychological trigger for something lost.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,065
    edited January 14

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    Indeed, the red wall seats are surely lost already, since:

    - the answer as to whether the PM can ever recover his credibility and reputation, and hence his election-winning ways, is clearly no

    - the answer as to whether any of his likely replacements could replicate his appeal to the red wall also appears to be no

    although you'd hope in politics that someone who took their issues and concerns seriously - most notably the obvious regional inequalities in the UK - and actually did something about them, would pull in votes regardless of their personal characteristics?

    It's not in our national interest for all the wealth to be concentrated in the south, after all.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Must have been a disappointment, having to make do with that as second best, not being able to find a Plaid Cymru Society there.
    Stop kicking!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554

    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
    Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,078
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
    That's true so well done, that was a good trading call (and maybe more). But take a look at what has been happening with HRC over the past few weeks.
    Hillary’s name just keeps coming up.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=XEIvAxki8K4

    Could anything be worse than a Clinton v Trump rematch?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,892
    edited January 14
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ah, Jeremy Hunt. The Health Secretary who put the pandemic preparedness plan he commissioned straight in the bin. No-one is going to bring that up during a leadership campaign, not at all.

    Sure he isn't perfect, but then who is? He has actually seemed rather more grown up (not difficult) through the pandemic than pretty much everyone else. Possibly The Saj has had a "good" pandemic, but he looks too much like Dr Evil.
    There has to be some value in Javid at 25/1, which is the price indicated in the header image.

    I’m not laying Sunak too much, but I think his ideal time is close to passing, he looks involved with this week’s headlines and there’s tax rises coming down the line.

    Not sure on Truss this time around, she really needs another couple of years to get some achievements at FCO under her belt.

    If we get a contest this year, it could end up with a relative outsider even when in government.
    If we get a contest this year we would have our fourth Tory PM in six years. When you go through PMs that quickly you have to start appointing relative outsiders because of the rate at which you've cycled through the more likely contenders.

    We had four different PMs in the period 1974-9, but that was with two changes of party in government. We also had four PMs in 1951-7, but again that included a change of the party of government, and Churchill was having a second stint, so not really the same thing.

    1935-40 four PMs again with the backdrop of the Great Depression and a World War, but two of the four had been PM previously.

    Maybe it's not the unusual period of political instability I thought it was when I first started looking at it though. I wonder how long the next PM will last?
  • HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    Ooh, that's a good spot.

    The Conservatives have to pick a biggish beast; they're choosing a Prime Minister, after all. (And whilst Major and May weren't top of the lists to succeed Thatcher and Cameron, they weren't crazy ideas, either.)

    Javid ticks that box, unlike (say) Mordaunt. He's also less up to his neck in in Johnson's mess than Sunak. (After all, Rishi was one of the first public Boris Backers in 2019, and happily went along with Dom's games in early 2020).

    Sufficiently big, sufficiently distanced from Boris, doesn't need the party to admit "we got it wrong in 2019". Good story, not obviously useless. Makes sense.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,575
    Mr. Sandpit, COVID-20, but with Black Death level mortality rate.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,111
    Now we have an extension to this, that the PM “has apologised, I think we now need to move on.”

    But as the clip above makes clear, buried within that he’s still actually saying what happened was within the rules....
    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1481938550144835587
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,065

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    Ooh, that's a good spot.

    The Conservatives have to pick a biggish beast; they're choosing a Prime Minister, after all. (And whilst Major and May weren't top of the lists to succeed Thatcher and Cameron, they weren't crazy ideas, either.)

    Javid ticks that box, unlike (say) Mordaunt. He's also less up to his neck in in Johnson's mess than Sunak. (After all, Rishi was one of the first public Boris Backers in 2019, and happily went along with Dom's games in early 2020).

    Sufficiently big, sufficiently distanced from Boris, doesn't need the party to admit "we got it wrong in 2019". Good story, not obviously useless. Makes sense.
    Laying Starmer as next PM is also looking increasingly like value - (if one is allowed to take the other side of an OGH-tipped bet on this site?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
    That's true so well done, that was a good trading call (and maybe more). But take a look at what has been happening with HRC over the past few weeks.
    Hillary’s name just keeps coming up.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=XEIvAxki8K4

    Could anything be worse than a Clinton v Trump rematch?
    The likely Trump return to the White House that would result?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,153
    At the prices a speculative interest in Mordaunt, Wallace and Baker feel good to me. Truss and the main candidates from the last leadership election are too short.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,965

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ah, Jeremy Hunt. The Health Secretary who put the pandemic preparedness plan he commissioned straight in the bin. No-one is going to bring that up during a leadership campaign, not at all.

    Sure he isn't perfect, but then who is? He has actually seemed rather more grown up (not difficult) through the pandemic than pretty much everyone else. Possibly The Saj has had a "good" pandemic, but he looks too much like Dr Evil.
    There has to be some value in Javid at 25/1, which is the price indicated in the header image.

    I’m not laying Sunak too much, but I think his ideal time is close to passing, he looks involved with this week’s headlines and there’s tax rises coming down the line.

    Not sure on Truss this time around, she really needs another couple of years to get some achievements at FCO under her belt.

    If we get a contest this year, it could end up with a relative outsider even when in government.
    If we get a contest this year we would have our fourth Tory PM in six years. When you go through PMs that quickly you have to start appointing relative outsiders because of the rate at which you've cycled through the more likely contenders.

    We had four different PMs in the period 1974-9, but that was with two changes of party in government. We also had four PMs in 1951-7, but again that included a change of the party of government, and Churchill was having a second stint, so not really the same thing.

    1935-40 four PMs again with the backdrop of the Great Depression and a World War, but two of the four had been PM previously.

    Maybe it's not the unusual period of political instability I thought it was when I first started looking at it though. I wonder how long the next PM will last?
    When you go through them at that rate, surely the question that really needs asking isn't are we electing the right leader?
    But are we electing the right Party?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,503
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
    Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
    Apart from her Ladyship complications Ruth may be in the Borisian position of not being able to take a pay cut by becoming PM.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,111
    Also, are we moving on or waiting for the Gray inquiry? Those things are mutually exclusive.
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1481944321930760198
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,078
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
    Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
    Nothing that legally says the PM cannot be in the Lords - although I imagine that there would be no such thing as a safe seat for a by-election these days, if a party tried to force one in such circumstances.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,486
    MrEd said:



    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.

    Biden's deep unpopularity is bad for Trump I think. If it becomes apparent that just about anybody could beat JRB in 2024 then the GOP will decide they can do without Trump and his army of BMI 40+ flag wavers with unmanaged diabeted and opiate addictions.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,371

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    ..a further thought on your very valid post. The reality was that most Tory party members had the wrong priorities. They prized popularity over competence, and combined this with paranoia about him being a "remainer". We, and the Tory Party also, are all paying the price of that dumb priority.
    They prized winning the election over not winning the election.
    The alternative to Boris Johnson wasn't Jeremy Hunt, it was Jeremy Corbyn.*



    *This is a satisfyingly pithy conclusion, so it seems sad to have to qualify it - I think the assumption was that only Boris could win - in reality, it may have been the case that Corbyn was so toxic that a Hunt-led government would have won too, though we'll never know.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Ex-trade minister brands Labour MP Barry Gardiner's links to Chinese spy "extremely concerning".

    Greg Hands warns: "We used to brief him [Gardiner] confidentially on complex & sensitive intl trade negotiations which certainly would have been of interest to the Chinese Govt"


    https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/1481944104980385792?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    I also remember it well and I think you're exaggerating the extent to which it was a surprise. After Thatcher didn't get the numbers to end it in round one, she was persuaded the best way to stop Heseltine was to step aside and make it a loyalist vs rebel fight. The leading loyalist initially, on balance, looked like Hurd - but Major was not "nowhere", and always a very serious contender albeit narrowly third in the betting at the start. Indeed, it fairly quickly became clear Hurd was rather old and getting limited traction.
    Ironically, given who's become PM since, Hurd's Eton education was very much held against him at the time.
    Indeed, when I was chairman of Warwick University Conservatives we had Lord Hurd to speak and he was excellent. Only inverse snobbery stopped him. He probably would have enjoyed being PM more than Major too
    Almost makes you nostalgic for the days when Old Etonians were effectively barred from Number 10.
    It was the Fettes educated Blair winning in 1997 that made it possible for the Eton educated Cameron and Boris to become PM.

    Fettes being the Eton of Scotland
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,078

    Mr. Sandpit, COVID-20, but with Black Death level mortality rate.

    Thankfully, there will never be a Covid-20, nor Covid-21. :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,065
    MaxPB said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    The problem with Hunt is that he would have got the two big unlockdown decisions wrong. We wouldn't have fully unlocked in July and we would currently be in a Netherlands style lockdown trying to contain Omicron. He would have got the earlier pandemic decisions more correct than the government, but there's also a worry that he'd have signed us up to the EU purchase schemes which worked out very poorly for the first 6 months of the vaccination programme.

    Hunt is the blank sheet of paper for anti-Brexit Tories. A closer look at what he did and didn't achieve shows he's a bit rubbish and depending on one's perspective his support for remain may or may not be an electoral asset for the leadership.

    The players here are Rishi, Liz and someone from the CRG/ERG if neither of those two can come to a deal with them for support. I think Rishi specifically will work very hard to get the ERG/CRG on board and cut a deal with Hunt while Liz Truss will struggle with the Hunt wing of the party and isn't fully trusted by the ERG not to water down Brexit.

    Even with the majority of MPs lining up behind Rishi I think a final two of Rishi vs Liz will be too close to call. Hunt won't get close to the final two this time.
    If the clown is forced to go early - as looks increasingly likely - I think the MPs will keep it away from the members. The public argument of the ongoing pandemic crisis and the private argument that they can't let Tory members f**k up again will be persuasive.

    The same applies if the pandemic is still ongoing in May, or we're perceived to be heading into economic crisis.

    The question therefore is who MPs will choose.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,440

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    ..a further thought on your very valid post. The reality was that most Tory party members had the wrong priorities. They prized popularity over competence, and combined this with paranoia about him being a "remainer". We, and the Tory Party also, are all paying the price of that dumb priority.
    This is rewriting history. The members were faced with a choice between a candidate who maybe had a plan for resolving Brexit in a way satisfactory to those who voted for it, and one who really didn't - or at least one best described as "Continuity May", and clearly May's approach wasn't working.

    Faced with that choice, I still voted Hunt, because I was concerned about... well, this... but I understand why Johnson won comfortably. If Johnson had promised to smash Corbyn at a GE, sort out Brexit, and then quit within a year, I would have voted for him as well.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,153
    edited January 14
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1990, hardly nowhere

    Just spotted this, so thought I would respond. I guess I am quite a bit older than you so remember it well. It was "out of no-where" because it was always assumed it would be Heseltine or Hurd (remember him;he with the icecream on his head?). The grey man slipped in up the middle unobserved. Maybe The Saj is going to do the same type of trick?
    Ooh, that's a good spot.

    The Conservatives have to pick a biggish beast; they're choosing a Prime Minister, after all. (And whilst Major and May weren't top of the lists to succeed Thatcher and Cameron, they weren't crazy ideas, either.)

    Javid ticks that box, unlike (say) Mordaunt. He's also less up to his neck in in Johnson's mess than Sunak. (After all, Rishi was one of the first public Boris Backers in 2019, and happily went along with Dom's games in early 2020).

    Sufficiently big, sufficiently distanced from Boris, doesn't need the party to admit "we got it wrong in 2019". Good story, not obviously useless. Makes sense.
    Laying Starmer as next PM is also looking increasingly like value - (if one is allowed to take the other side of an OGH-tipped bet on this site?)
    Actually disagree on that. Better to back Boris to leave early. If it is Boris vs Starmer then Starmer probably rightly odds on to be PM from that election. (If anyone does want to lay I am happy to put more up looking to back at 9.4).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    edited January 14
    Cookie said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    ..a further thought on your very valid post. The reality was that most Tory party members had the wrong priorities. They prized popularity over competence, and combined this with paranoia about him being a "remainer". We, and the Tory Party also, are all paying the price of that dumb priority.
    They prized winning the election over not winning the election.
    The alternative to Boris Johnson wasn't Jeremy Hunt, it was Jeremy Corbyn.*



    *This is a satisfyingly pithy conclusion, so it seems sad to have to qualify it - I think the assumption was that only Boris could win - in reality, it may have been the case that Corbyn was so toxic that a Hunt-led government would have won too, though we'll never know.
    Indeed, had May won a landslide in 2017 Boris would never have become PM. He was there to get Brexit done and beat Corbyn which he did.

    Hunt is personality wise close to May
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,855
    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Heightism is the last permissible prejudice and Hunt is about twice as tall as Sunak.
    I know Sunak is short (in height), but I thought Hunt was also quite short - I'd have had him at about 5' 10'' at most. Turns out he's 6' 2''.
    Isn't the internet weird? Imagine if I'd told you 40 years ago that you could, if you so chose, break off briefly from work to speculate about the height of the third-favourite in a battle for the leadership of the conservative party which has not yet been announced, and not only find it within 15 seconds of the question occurring to you but find out in such a way that confirms other people have been asking the same question in various forms.
    Heightism is insidious. 5'10" is not really "quite short". It is around or just over average height.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,554

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
    Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
    Apart from her Ladyship complications Ruth may be in the Borisian position of not being able to take a pay cut by becoming PM.
    Hmm, yes. Also dissed the current lot in London - not such an issue in itself but it flags up her Remainery history.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,969
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    In many ways Hunt and Sunak are cut from the same cloth.

    Both public school, Oxford PPE, independently wealthy with successful careers pre politics. Neither as far as we know have any personal scandals or interesting relationship situations going on or to be dug up.

    Neither have so far really presented or needed to present any sort of vision for their brand of govt.

    The key differences are as far as I can see that Hunt is more part of the old guard - beneficial as less tainted by Boris, maybe appears more matured, associated in some minds with Cameron govt which is looking better as time passes but bad in that he has a track record in govt that parts of can be used against him whilst also making people ask “what did he actually do if any interest or value”.

    Sunak is more of the new guard - beneficial as younger more dynamic style, good communicator with social media etc, aspirational even, Indian heritage, more down with the youth maybe but bad in that even though he’s holding the second most powerful role he might be seen as inexperienced by virtue of relative youth and also clearly a major part of the Boris govt.

    If both were to stand I think ultimately a lot would ride on their “vision” for what they want to do. I also think there will be an element that Tory MPs will look at Hunt and look at Starmer and find them rather too similar and uninspiring - like a pair of boring wooden bookends and Sunak might have that bit of stardust necessary to cut through and refresh the party image.

    This of course could all be rubbish!

    Hunt is basically the British Mitt Romney, Sunak the Tory David Miliband
    ... fortunately neither are "Britain Trump".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,694
    Scott_xP said:

    Also, are we moving on or waiting for the Gray inquiry? Those things are mutually exclusive.
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1481944321930760198

    Moving on because we know Gray through no fault of her own will give them a way to just sack a few Spads no one has heard of and move on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,047
    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:



    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.

    Biden's deep unpopularity is bad for Trump I think. If it becomes apparent that just about anybody could beat JRB in 2024 then the GOP will decide they can do without Trump and his army of BMI 40+ flag wavers with unmanaged diabeted and opiate addictions.
    Anybody could have beaten Hillary in 2016 too on the GOP side, it was the GOP base who picked Trump, not the GOP establishment
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,694

    At the prices a speculative interest in Mordaunt, Wallace and Baker feel good to me. Truss and the main candidates from the last leadership election are too short.

    Mordaunt is my big outside bet.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,733
    MrEd said:

    Cookie said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    Are there really so few potential candidates that we are having to retread for first ladies?
    It didn't exactly work out well last time that gambit was tried.
    Well, yes. There is a very good chance 2024 could be a rematch of 2016. There is an increasing view that Biden won't run again and Harris is not up to it. The other candidates are not seen as viable. HRC has also making more noises about the Democrats needing to be centrist - likely to appeal if the Dems get hammered in November.

    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.
    There is not a 'very good chance' at all – that is ludicrous. What price would you give this 'very good chance'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,258
    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak is a very worthy fav. Morduant is my speculative pick if it's not him.

    Speaking of speculative, my tip/bet on MICHELLE OBAMA for POTUS24 at 100 is on the roll! Into 40 now.

    Can we imagine? ... Yes We Can.

    You can imagine all you want, the way things are going, it is looking more like it will be Hillary Clinton.
    No, HRC is not possible, MO is.

    Anyway, it was just a 'hats off to me' post. If you tip something at 100s then a week later it's steamed in to under 40 you want the whole wide world to know.
    That's true so well done, that was a good trading call (and maybe more). But take a look at what has been happening with HRC over the past few weeks.
    Hillary’s name just keeps coming up.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=XEIvAxki8K4

    Could anything be worse than a Clinton v Trump rematch?
    They conclude Trump will win a landslide against Harris.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    And a note on the two big unlockdown decisions that Hunt would have got wrong. We've just surpassed our pre-pandemic GDP peak and we're one of the first countries to do that, this is because in July the government took the bold step of shit canning all domestic restrictions and didn't reintroduce them in November as we've seen all across Europe.

    There's no way that a UK which held onto social distancing, kept the night economy closed, held onto public gathering limitations and then rushed to reimpose lockdown in November with curfews, forced business closures and stay home orders is 0.7% above pre-pandemic GDP.

    That's a major decision that the UK has got right and much of the rest of the world has got wrong. It's also one of the major reasons why the UK has got surging domestic demand for workers and surging pay at the lower end of the payscale.

    Those two decisions to ignore the consensus from scientists was clearly correct and it will pay off for us on 2022 and 2023. With Hunt in charge we wouldn't have that post-pandemic dividend and the likes of Google wouldn't be investing £600m into purchasing and refurbishing their current office.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,395
    FF43 said:

    I thought the Tories were mad to pick Johnson over Hunt - the difference in quality between the two is huge. Their 2019 red wall victory says I was wrong, but recent events, where Johnson's (lack of) character has at last cut through with voters, suggest otherwise. Hunt would be a sensible choice I think. The Tories' dilemma is the red wall where Johnson had a unique (and to me mystifying) attractiveness that has now disappeared. Not obvious that any of his potential successors could match it.
    I increasingly think Johnson will go soon. I looked again at the photo of HMQ grieving her husband alone and found myself welling up. I think a lot of folk will have a similar reaction. A line has been crossed now, there's no way back.

    I have heard stories of people finding out about the parties, thinking about what they were doing at the time and bursting into tears. It's been a long, unnatural and stressful period. Partygate was a psychological trigger for something lost.
    Indeed. I have had a relatively untroubled Covid experience - a brief scare with my in-laws and an unpleasant but not dangerous brush with the disease myself. And I'm not a passionate monarchist or an especially emotional person. But I thought, if this is my reaction then for many people who've been through far worse this will really be a point of no return.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,069
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:



    For Trump, the dynamics are a little bit different. Most of the 'rising stars' on the Republican side are young enough to wait 4 years (DeSantis, Scott, Cruz if you want to include him). Far better to not p1ss Trump off, let him run again and hope for the VP pick, which puts you in pole position for 2028.

    Biden's deep unpopularity is bad for Trump I think. If it becomes apparent that just about anybody could beat JRB in 2024 then the GOP will decide they can do without Trump and his army of BMI 40+ flag wavers with unmanaged diabeted and opiate addictions.
    Anybody could have beaten Hillary in 2016 too on the GOP side, it was the GOP base who picked Trump, not the GOP establishment
    More people voted for Hillary than for Trump in 2016!

    More people voted for Biden than for Trump in 2020!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,088
    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Leadsom for leader.

    Roooth!

    A ridiculous 25/1 with PP.
    Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
    Nothing that legally says the PM cannot be in the Lords - although I imagine that there would be no such thing as a safe seat for a by-election these days, if a party tried to force one in such circumstances.
    Halifax turned down PMship in 1940 on account of being a Lord
This discussion has been closed.