Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I laid him at 2.7 but yes imo he's still a value lay. Very unlikely he ends up lifting the trophy.
They've made him angry. If he starts he will have lots of outrage to motivate him.
I think back to Jacob Rees Mogg on Grenfell and…. it’s not just that Boris and co didn’t think lockdown rules applied to them. There’s also a certain contempt for those who “blindly” followed those rules: goody two shoes who can’t think for themselves
As long as the people ignoring the rules went to the right school, know the right people, inherited the right money etc.
Now they might have contempt for the rule following proles but its not wise to let the rule following proles know you have contempt for them when you need the votes of those rule following proles.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Yes. But why has he gone from 2.6 to 3.55?
2 reasons -
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
Not convinced by the first and not sure how likely the second is with the length of an appeal process. I feel sorry not just for Djokovic but for all the players as the tournament is become tainted by this.
He's my favourite player - I'm a big fan - but I do think he's acting like an utter dick on this. Possibly career ending if he's not careful.
I think the Aussie PM is the utter dick.
Him too. It's a dickfest.
Still, exciting buildup. The actual event will struggle to live up to it!
After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.
Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
No, I didn't sleep through it. Give your head a wobble. What do you get from making such a jerkish comment. This isn't twitter where you can get likes and retweets off fellow clowns. I never made a comment about the overall tone of the leave campaign. I wouldn't dispute there was an element of prejudice in some of it. that wasnt the point I was responding to.
I also voted remain. I didn't like either campaign.
However the leave campaign was based on controlled migration not zero migration.
Even if the Leave campaign was based on controlled migration rather less of it, which is doubtful, they aren't delivering on it. In the meantime we have lost our liberty for nothing.
If that were the case, why are employers of unskilled labour complaining loudly that they can’t find people and are having to raise wages?
The extra 200 000 immigrants a year post Brexit figure is from the Telegraph. But good point. If previously met needs no longer are, despite the extra numbers, that suggests worse control over immigration post Brexit, not better.
And I lost an important freedom because of this nonsense.
Should add of course that wage increases aren't keeping up with inflation. Hence the cost of living squeeze.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I laid him at 2.7 but yes imo he's still a value lay. Very unlikely he ends up lifting the trophy.
They've made him angry. If he starts he will have lots of outrage to motivate him.
He's also got an easy draw. Win his first match and he become odd-on favourite I think.
After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.
Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
No, I didn't sleep through it. Give your head a wobble. What do you get from making such a jerkish comment. This isn't twitter where you can get likes and retweets off fellow clowns. I never made a comment about the overall tone of the leave campaign. I wouldn't dispute there was an element of prejudice in some of it. that wasnt the point I was responding to.
I also voted remain. I didn't like either campaign.
However the leave campaign was based on controlled migration not zero migration.
Even if the Leave campaign was based on controlled migration rather less of it, which is doubtful, they aren't delivering on it. In the meantime we have lost our liberty for nothing.
If that were the case, why are employers of unskilled labour complaining loudly that they can’t find people and are having to raise wages?
Is there a distinction here between legal and illegal immigration? Legal immigration down - hence above-board employers like Pret having to work harder to attract staff - but illegal immigration remains (and goes - where? Car washes? )
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Boris "wins the media cycle today"???
You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
I don't think HYUFD is a racist. That is a very unpleasant slur which should be beneath you, but then you are a nationalist.
Away and find another dead rat to swallow Sid.
You should withdraw it. It really does show what an unpleasant individual you are. There is nothing he has ever said that justifies your revolting comment. The fact that you come out with such a pathetic response is further indication of who you are and your limited ability to debate. Withdraw the comment.
I never defer to BritNat trolls.
Oh dear, here I was thinking you were one of the slightly above amoeba level intellect Scots Nat. Clearly you are very much below that very low level. In case you haven't noticed I am not so keen on the principles of nationalism. British Nationalists are a very unpleasant breed that like to cause division and hatred. You would be very at home amongst their prejudice, except you prefer to wrap yourself in phoney tartan from your self-imposed exile rather than wrap yourself in the union flag.
Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.
Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.
From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
There's always Andrea Leadsom.
Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.
Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.
It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.
Hunt is also now less tainted by links to Cummings than Sunak. He is also more heavyweight and serious than Truss.
However Hunt also wants more Covid restrictions than Boris does, which could split the Tory base
Covid restrictions are now the same as Boris.
Finished.
Now *that* deserves a party!
I'd say that some appropriately themed parties when the clown steps down are a nailed-on certainty.
He had two main policy areas: Brexit and the levelling up agenda. The first of those had been achieved
Nope
Indeed, one of Johnson’s problems is that the most ardent Brexiteers in the parliamentary party are not particularly enamoured of his leadership. Many of them have fallen out with him over lockdown or tax rises. They applauded the resignation of his Brexit minister, Lord Frost, in protest at the “political direction” of the government. They are frustrated that the government isn’t doing more with its hard-won Brexit freedoms. “There’s no way of telling people why we did Brexit because we are not doing anything,” complains a former cabinet minister who was a key figure in Johnson’s leadership campaign. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-mps-are-waiting-until-voters-boos-are-deafening-p58stz0d2
Brexiteers are bound to be disappointed because there never was a unitary vision for Brexit. Worse, Boris was barely signed up to Brexit at all, let alone Singapore-on-Thames. The cynical view of Boris's Cabinet is it was picked to provide human shields for Boris. Prominent ERG types like JRM to defend him from charges of backsliding on Brexit; likewise lots of, erm, other ministers to defend Boris from charges of racism following some ill-judged phrases in his scribblings.
This is great. Voters think BoZo is crap, so replace everyone except him...
Worth noting this intervention from @danny__kruger - a long time Johnson supporter who worked with him No10. He hints at the need for a new chief of staff, cabinet secretary and deputy prime minister
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I laid him at 2.7 but yes imo he's still a value lay. Very unlikely he ends up lifting the trophy.
They've made him angry. If he starts he will have lots of outrage to motivate him.
Or to derail him. I suspect it would be the latter. The hostility he should get from the Aussies is unlikely to help either
“She’s a method actor,” says one MP. “She plays the role of a high-achiever without any actual achievements.”
One could say that of a number of politicians. Johnson is a prime example.
Well Johnson did win London mayor, even if he was lucky, and the capital is littered with various expensive structures that some might see as achievements, if expensive and pointless ones. But they exist in physical form in the real world, just as after my long time as a councillor I can drive you round my old patch and point to various things that are only there because of me.
What would Truss point to, other than a trade deal with New Zealand that is the same as the one we had before with "EU" tippexed over?
BTW Is Boris's excuse for the garden party that he didn't realise that it was a social event until he was there ?
If so then why didn't he sack Reynolds afterwards for organising a social event.
He didn't know it was a social event until the media broke the story.
I can almost believe that.
I suspect Boris doesn't do much work at his work events and thinks social events are actually work.
He has been in politics nearly all of his adult life. For a politician social events are work, and pretty tedious work at that. Meet and greet, remember the names, ideally the partner's names too to show how much you care about what's his name. Try, but not too hard, to be witty, have a glass in your hand but never risk getting drunk. Focus on those you want something from but don't cut others.
It sounds absolute hell to me but its also probably what they deserve.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I laid him at 2.7 but yes imo he's still a value lay. Very unlikely he ends up lifting the trophy.
They've made him angry. If he starts he will have lots of outrage to motivate him.
Or to derail him. I suspect it would be the latter. The hostility he should get from the Aussies is unlikely to help either
It wouldn't be the first time he has faced crowd hostility plus who gets the last laugh - the crowd will each have paid A$XXX to go and watch him.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Yes. But why has he gone from 2.6 to 3.55?
2 reasons -
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
Not convinced by the first and not sure how likely the second is with the length of an appeal process. I feel sorry not just for Djokovic but for all the players as the tournament is become tainted by this.
He's my favourite player - I'm a big fan - but I do think he's acting like an utter dick on this. Possibly career ending if he's not careful.
I think the Aussie PM is the utter dick.
Him too. It's a dickfest.
Still, exciting buildup. The actual event will struggle to live up to it!
What about the future of the event? What if the Saudi government had decided to bar Lewis Hamilton from the Grand Prix, or the Qataris decide in November that Raheem Sterling is a bit of a wrong'un?
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
“She’s a method actor,” says one MP. “She plays the role of a high-achiever without any actual achievements.”
One could say that of a number of politicians. Johnson is a prime example.
Well Johnson did win London mayor, even if he was lucky, and the capital is littered with various expensive structures that some might see as achievements, if expensive and pointless ones. But they exist in physical form in the real world, just as after my long time as a councillor I can drive you round my old patch and point to various things that are only there because of me.
What would Truss point to, other than a trade deal with New Zealand that is the same as the one we had before with "EU" tippexed over?
Fair comment, and I wasn't really seeking to defend her. I would rather her than Johnson though. As I said the other day, I think I would prefer the Downing Street cat
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I laid him at 2.7 but yes imo he's still a value lay. Very unlikely he ends up lifting the trophy.
That's an interesting difference.
You both know bets are void if he doesn't play. But if he plays....
One of you thinks a back is value because he's a great player and his odds have been artificially lengthened by people laying, not knowing the rules.
One of you thinks that a lay is value because the whole furore and likely loss of audience support will affect his performance.
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
How many seats are the Tories defending?
Somewhere around 1,500, I think, but spread all over the place mostly in small opposition groups on Labour councils
So could lose a lot of seats but few councils. Damaging to morale, but not as bad as it could be.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
They were not completely not thought of. Thatcher and Cameron were Shadow Education Secretary when they became leader, Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hague was in Major's Cabinet and IDS in Hague's Shadow Cabinet.
One thing that really worries me is that while the US and UK have got surging pay to offset the higher taxes and costs looming this year and next, most of Europe hasn't got that. Some Northern European countries have seen some modest pay increases but the vast majority of Europeans will have not a lot in the way of payrises but they're also going to end up paying more in tax, energy costs, petrol, food, goods from China. All of these inputs are surging across the world, the UK is one of a handful of western nations that will ride the rapids to some degree with a free floating currency and rising pay, especially at the lower end (see the likes of Sainsbury's and Next increasing hourly rates by 5-7%).
Loads of ordinary people across Europe are going to see a huge real drop in living standards for the next two or three years, this is going to create a really volatile political situation.
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
Like all those cars ? The thing is that Brexit put paid to at least one major investment in new EV manufacturing.
On the other hand, Bentley, Rolls Royce and Lotus all announced record sales in 2021. The British car industry is doing well at the moment.
Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar · 1h PM’s ex-director of comms James Slack apologises "unreservedly" for “anger and hurt" caused by his lockdown leaving bash - but appears to confirm it broke rules.
"This event should not have happened at the time that it did. I am deeply sorry, and take full responsibility."
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
Hardly not thought of. Thatcher abd Cameron were Shadow Education Secretary when they became leader, Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hague was in Major's Cabinet and IDS in Hague's Shadow Cabinet.
Nope, Thatcher was Shadow Environment Secretary when she became leader.
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
Is Sue Gray a fan of Scottish independence? She’s playing an absolute blinder.
Remember she is working for the secret service (see link above). She will rescue the union by damning the clown, after which there'll be a tide of pro-union sentiment by way of relief....
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
Like all those cars ? The thing is that Brexit put paid to at least one major investment in new EV manufacturing.
On the other hand, Bentley, Rolls Royce and Lotus all announced record sales in 2021. The British car industry is doing well at the moment.
And, don't forget, positive big investment announcement by Nissan in the NE for EV manufacturing.
Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar · 1h PM’s ex-director of comms James Slack apologises "unreservedly" for “anger and hurt" caused by his lockdown leaving bash - but appears to confirm it broke rules.
"This event should not have happened at the time that it did. I am deeply sorry, and take full responsibility."
Blot on his copybook but he's moved on. Is Murdoch going to sack him?
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
They took a gamble and it paid off. Fair dos to them. I thought they were calling it wrong; they weren't.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
The evidence that was quite clear from SA, early on, was that the transmissibility was off the charts, Which meant that "lockdowns" wouldn't work. Not even the Chinese style ones.
With an effective R0 in to range of 10 (!), a lockdown reduces that by, maybe, 2.
I think that's wrong. The way that lockdowns (or voluntary behaviour modification) work is by reducing the number of social contacts. If you cut your social contacts in half then you cut the potential to spread the virus in half. So, if R0 is 4 a cut in half is a reduction of 2, to 2. If R0 is 10, then the same cut in social contacts reduces R by 5, to 5, not by 2, to 8.
Obviously it's still harder to reduce R to under 1, as you have to cut social contacts by more than 90% instead of more than 75%, but it's not as hopeless as your maths would suggest.
If a virus was deadly enough with a high R I'm sure there are all sorts of things that could be attempted to still restrict the spread, if that was the only option available. Omicron is clearly not that virus.
Out of interest, what sort of things, beyond what was already done (but presumably not quite on the China scale)?
Not saying there aren't options, just interested to know your thinking.
Carrie present at these government work meetings: Imagine the furore if Cherie Blair had been spotted at Labour government work meetings.
To defend Carrie here, unlike Cherie, she is a former Director of Communications of a political party, she does have some talent in the political comms/strategy fields.
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
Is Sue Gray a fan of Scottish independence? She’s playing an absolute blinder.
Remember she is working for the secret service (see link above). She will rescue the union by damning the clown, after which there'll be a tide of pro-union sentiment by way of relief....
Lots of folk beavering away to shore up the Union are actually having the complete opposite effect. What Unionists really need to do is chill out a bit. The poor wee souls just aren’t thinking straight.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Yes. But why has he gone from 2.6 to 3.55?
2 reasons -
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
Not convinced by the first and not sure how likely the second is with the length of an appeal process. I feel sorry not just for Djokovic but for all the players as the tournament is become tainted by this.
He's my favourite player - I'm a big fan - but I do think he's acting like an utter dick on this. Possibly career ending if he's not careful.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
They were not completely not thought of. Thatcher and Cameron were Shadow Education Secretary when they became leader, Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hague was in Major's Cabinet and IDS in Hague's Shadow Cabinet.
They were all certainly in the mix. The surprise was Hague who, originally, was part of Michael Howard's campaign team but, unwisely, allowed himself to be persuaded to run himself. He became Leader far too young. Interestingly Blair considered Hague the most capable of the opposition leaders he faced but Hague had no chance at all at that time of making progress.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
Hardly not thought of. Thatcher abd Cameron were Shadow Education Secretary when they became leader, Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hague was in Major's Cabinet and IDS in Hague's Shadow Cabinet.
Nope, Thatcher was Shadow Environment Secretary when she became leader.
She had been Shadow Education Secretary as well, still hardly unheard of
Ukraine has been hit by a “massive” cyber-attack, with the websites of several government departments including the ministry of foreign affairs and the education ministry knocked out.
Officials said it was too early to draw any conclusions but they pointed to a “long record” of Russian cyber assaults against Ukraine, with the attack coming after security talks between Moscow and the US and its allies this week ended in stalemate.
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
This is a Tory saying that the '“just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.'
Not entirely irrelevant to what you have just said.
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
Tell Adam, not me. I’ve seen you make the identical point at least 200 times before. Perhaps Adam has never read PB and it will therefore be a novel take for him?
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
How many seats are the Tories defending?
Somewhere around 1,500, I think, but spread all over the place mostly in small opposition groups on Labour councils
So could lose a lot of seats but few councils. Damaging to morale, but not as bad as it could be.
The AV system in Scotland should help stem the losses as well. Indeed the Tories north of the border may buck the trend a bit.
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
They took a gamble and it paid off. Fair dos to them. I thought they were calling it wrong; they weren't.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
The evidence that was quite clear from SA, early on, was that the transmissibility was off the charts, Which meant that "lockdowns" wouldn't work. Not even the Chinese style ones.
With an effective R0 in to range of 10 (!), a lockdown reduces that by, maybe, 2.
I think that's wrong. The way that lockdowns (or voluntary behaviour modification) work is by reducing the number of social contacts. If you cut your social contacts in half then you cut the potential to spread the virus in half. So, if R0 is 4 a cut in half is a reduction of 2, to 2. If R0 is 10, then the same cut in social contacts reduces R by 5, to 5, not by 2, to 8.
Obviously it's still harder to reduce R to under 1, as you have to cut social contacts by more than 90% instead of more than 75%, but it's not as hopeless as your maths would suggest.
If a virus was deadly enough with a high R I'm sure there are all sorts of things that could be attempted to still restrict the spread, if that was the only option available. Omicron is clearly not that virus.
Out of interest, what sort of things, beyond what was already done (but presumably not quite on the China scale)?
Not saying there aren't options, just interested to know your thinking.
The evidence from various lockdown round the world (as I understand it) was that lockdowns don't reduce R by as much as the reduced social contacts would initially suggest. So, while they have an effect, it isn't cutting R in half....
If Omicron was more deadly, then in technical terms, we would be fucked.
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
Tell Adam, not me. I’ve seen you make the identical point at least 200 times before. Perhaps Adam has never read PB and it will therefore be a novel take for him?
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
This is a Tory saying that the '“just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.'
Not entirely irrelevant to what you have just said.
No irrelevant, as long as we have a Tory government it can and will refuse indyref2 until the next general election and beyond. Only way Sturgeon ever gets indyref2 is a Labour minority government reliant on SNP, now even that less likely, hence Alba
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I laid him at 2.7 but yes imo he's still a value lay. Very unlikely he ends up lifting the trophy.
They've made him angry. If he starts he will have lots of outrage to motivate him.
Yes, and that's part of his USP, he's used to being rooted against and he feeds on it. It's a big part of what's driven him to break up the Roger Rafa duopoly. Both of them are very popular.
But this is on a different scale. The mental energy consumed with the visa battle. Then, if he does play, the feeling of the whole country, not just the crowd, wanting him out.
He's not winning this tournament. It's a Not Happening Event.
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
Like all those cars ? The thing is that Brexit put paid to at least one major investment in new EV manufacturing.
On the other hand, Bentley, Rolls Royce and Lotus all announced record sales in 2021. The British car industry is doing well at the moment.
You've got to admire the nerve of Lotus with the new Emira. They want 911 money for a kit car built in a shed in Norfolk.
A big part of their recent relative success has been the huge aftermarket support for the Elise/Exige that has made them a modder's delight and a YouTube perennial. They've chucked all that away with the new Enema.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
How many seats are the Tories defending?
Somewhere around 1,500, I think, but spread all over the place mostly in small opposition groups on Labour councils
So could lose a lot of seats but few councils. Damaging to morale, but not as bad as it could be.
The AV system in Scotland should help stem the losses as well. Indeed the Tories north of the border may buck the trend a bit.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 16m As @patrickkmaguire says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
They took a gamble and it paid off. Fair dos to them. I thought they were calling it wrong; they weren't.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
The evidence that was quite clear from SA, early on, was that the transmissibility was off the charts, Which meant that "lockdowns" wouldn't work. Not even the Chinese style ones.
With an effective R0 in to range of 10 (!), a lockdown reduces that by, maybe, 2.
I think that's wrong. The way that lockdowns (or voluntary behaviour modification) work is by reducing the number of social contacts. If you cut your social contacts in half then you cut the potential to spread the virus in half. So, if R0 is 4 a cut in half is a reduction of 2, to 2. If R0 is 10, then the same cut in social contacts reduces R by 5, to 5, not by 2, to 8.
Obviously it's still harder to reduce R to under 1, as you have to cut social contacts by more than 90% instead of more than 75%, but it's not as hopeless as your maths would suggest.
If a virus was deadly enough with a high R I'm sure there are all sorts of things that could be attempted to still restrict the spread, if that was the only option available. Omicron is clearly not that virus.
Out of interest, what sort of things, beyond what was already done (but presumably not quite on the China scale)?
Not saying there aren't options, just interested to know your thinking.
Improve the standard of the respiratory gear used by essential workers. You could have ration packs delivered to households, rather than keeping supermarkets open. Have essential workers live separately to their families.
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
This is a Tory saying that the '“just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.'
Not entirely irrelevant to what you have just said.
No irrelevant, as long as we have a Tory government it can and will refuse indyref2 until the next general election and beyond. Only way Sturgeon ever gets indyref2 is a Labour minority government reliant on SNP, now even that less likely, hence Alba
You've just as good as cut and pasted that from your tweet to Mr Morris!
The former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, Adam Morris, writes:
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
No it isn't, what rubbish. For starters as long as there is a Tory government no indyref2 will be allowed
But there is no Tory government. There's only one Tory, and he's languishing in a relative and baffling obscurity on the edge of London. Westminster is just red, yellow, and blue Marxists.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
I think I'd be on Harper as a long-shot. He's been banging on for ages about how the Covid laws should only ever have been guidelines, and he has run for leader before.
A few people, including me, have flagged Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary as a possible if Rishi should blow up. Strong back-story and an appreciation of the Scottish dimension, having served as an MSP.
I have also been struck by the ConHome poll which showed Penny Mordaunt in third place. She really is someone who would do well with members - far more personality and voter appeal than Liz Truss.
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
David, just means we buy it from them or someone else at higher cost , it can in no way be seen as a benefit.
Or we make it ourselves Malcolm. Which is not so much a benefit as a necessity. Our economic policies when we were in the single market were ultimately disastrous and will adversely affect growth in the UK for at least the next decade as we pay profits, rent and dividends to those who bought up our businesses, our infrastructure and even our houses with the proceeds of the deficit. This really, really needs to change. It will require more saving, less consumption and more investment in the UK. Its not going to be easy but every long journey starts with a single step.
Would be good David, but yet to see any government in UK really support anyone making anything real.
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Boris "wins the media cycle today"???
You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
I don't think HYUFD is a racist. That is a very unpleasant slur which should be beneath you, but then you are a nationalist.
Away and find another dead rat to swallow Sid.
You should withdraw it. It really does show what an unpleasant individual you are. There is nothing he has ever said that justifies your revolting comment. The fact that you come out with such a pathetic response is further indication of who you are and your limited ability to debate. Withdraw the comment.
I never defer to BritNat trolls.
He will be shaking in his jackboots, little moustache quivering, eyes bulging and his big gammon face scarlet.
Comments
Now they might have contempt for the rule following proles but its not wise to let the rule following proles know you have contempt for them when you need the votes of those rule following proles.
Jennifer Williams
@JenWilliamsMEN
·
10h
Once you realise Number 10 were all drunk all of the time, 2020 starts to make more sense
Still, exciting buildup. The actual event will struggle to live up to it!
And I lost an important freedom because of this nonsense.
Should add of course that wage increases aren't keeping up with inflation. Hence the cost of living squeeze.
What would Truss point to, other than a trade deal with New Zealand that is the same as the one we had before with "EU" tippexed over?
It sounds absolute hell to me but its also probably what they deserve.
Shaun Lintern
@ShaunLintern
An interesting move by
@NorthumbriaNHS
which says it plans to directly provide home care services in North Tyneside and Northumberland. It is even considering a care home business: https://northumbria.nhs.uk/jobs-boost-as-northumbria-healthcare-confirms-intention-to-provide-care-services/#857191db
You both know bets are void if he doesn't play. But if he plays....
One of you thinks a back is value because he's a great player and his odds have been artificially lengthened by people laying, not knowing the rules.
One of you thinks that a lay is value because the whole furore and likely loss of audience support will affect his performance.
They're both good arguments.
Loads of ordinary people across Europe are going to see a huge real drop in living standards for the next two or three years, this is going to create a really volatile political situation.
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
·
1h
PM’s ex-director of comms James Slack apologises "unreservedly" for “anger and hurt" caused by his lockdown leaving bash - but appears to confirm it broke rules.
"This event should not have happened at the time that it did. I am deeply sorry, and take full responsibility."
‘Non-trans women’? What exactly do you mean by that? Men? Chairs? Clownfish? Give us a clue!
Or are you really so disrespectful that you’re now defining women as being ‘not a subclass of males’? 🤦♀️
#WomenWontWheesht
https://twitter.com/judgejules75/status/1481642101947265037?s=21
“The damage caused by Johnson’s inexplicable lockdown behaviour, as well as Rees-Mogg and Gove’s dismissing of the Scottish Tory brand, is hugely damaging to Scotland’s place in the UK.
Don’t be surprised if the word “lightweight” appears on every SNP and Labour leaflet during the upcoming local elections, the campaign for which will begin within a couple of months.
The attitude of some English Tories to Scottish independence is staggering.
Do they want the UK to lose a third of its land mass, a 10th of its population, one of its biggest cities in Glasgow and one of its wealthiest in Edinburgh?
Do they want to cut off Aberdeen, Europe’s energy capital, and a multi-million pound tourist industry?
… his “just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.”
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/jacob-rees-moggs-dismissal-of-douglas-ross-directly-undermines-the-union-the-ignorance-is-staggering-1399409
Rishi Sunak taking fire from fellow Cab ministers this morning for lukewarm support for PM
One brands him a 'prancing pony'
Allies say he's simply being cautious.
'He wants to be loyal but within the parameters of his conscience'
https://t.co/N0RGuqztyA
NEW THREAD
@JohnRentoul
·
8m
Second
@YouGov
poll in two days, via
@patrickkmaguire
Lab 40% +2
Con 29% +1
Lib Dem 11% -2
Green 6% -1
Reform 6% +2
Not saying there aren't options, just interested to know your thinking.
This is a Tory saying that the '“just say no” approach to SNP demands for another independence referendum… may work for the next year or so but, before too long, a UK leader is going to have to grasp this issue properly, with consideration and intelligence.'
Not entirely irrelevant to what you have just said.
If Omicron was more deadly, then in technical terms, we would be fucked.
Lab 40% (+2)
Con 29% (+1)
LD 11% (-2)
Grn 6% (-1)
Ref 6% (+2)
SNP 5% (nc)
oth 1% (-2)
The Times
But this is on a different scale. The mental energy consumed with the visa battle. Then, if he does play, the feeling of the whole country, not just the crowd, wanting him out.
He's not winning this tournament. It's a Not Happening Event.
A big part of their recent relative success has been the huge aftermarket support for the Elise/Exige that has made them a modder's delight and a YouTube perennial. They've chucked all that away with the new Enema.
@JohnRentoul
·
16m
As
@patrickkmaguire
says, “No matter what you keep reading about Liz Truss, don’t believe the hype: 45% of voters have no idea who she is and those who do know her overwhelmingly dislike her”
I have also been struck by the ConHome poll which showed Penny Mordaunt in third place. She really is someone who would do well with members - far more personality and voter appeal than Liz Truss.