After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.
Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
Don't you get it? People were scared stiff about being swamped by all those black Romanians. That's why 17 million voted leave.
Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.
Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.
From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
There's always Andrea Leadsom.
Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.
Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.
It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.
Hunt is also now less tainted by links to Cummings than Sunak. He is also more heavyweight and serious than Truss.
However Hunt also wants more Covid restrictions than Boris does, which could split the Tory base
In which case the analogy is still 1994-7. An obviously fatally wounded PM limping on. Partly for lack of agreement on the alternative, but also because the gig looks impossible. Once defeat is baked in, it's tempting to wait and take over post-defeat. Something similar happened to Labour in late 2016/early 2017.
It feels too early to be thinking like that, but who knows? At some point, the Conservatives might slip into "make out like bandits until the election, for then we die." One Telegraph hack called Boris described the run-up to 1997 as "beery, demented futility". That may be the template.
Indeed, the analogy is also not only Boris facing a dithering Sunak and Major facing a dithering Portillo in 1995 as you say but also Brown facing a dithering David Miliband pre 2010 too.
In the end of course neither Portillo or Milliband were able to bring down the PM in power to take the crown and ended up even losing the leadership in opposition to IDS and Ed Miliband respectively
He had two main policy areas: Brexit and the levelling up agenda. The first of those had been achieved
Nope
Indeed, one of Johnson’s problems is that the most ardent Brexiteers in the parliamentary party are not particularly enamoured of his leadership. Many of them have fallen out with him over lockdown or tax rises. They applauded the resignation of his Brexit minister, Lord Frost, in protest at the “political direction” of the government. They are frustrated that the government isn’t doing more with its hard-won Brexit freedoms. “There’s no way of telling people why we did Brexit because we are not doing anything,” complains a former cabinet minister who was a key figure in Johnson’s leadership campaign. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-mps-are-waiting-until-voters-boos-are-deafening-p58stz0d2
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Re the part I have italicised:
You are right of course. That's why the tax rises should have been focused on the highest earners and the asset rich. Taking money from the poor (see also the refusal to extend the UC uplift) takes it straight out of the economy. Taking it from the wealthiest would have minimal negative effect on the economy over the next few years.
Even if one is philosophically against wealth redistribution, taxing those who can afford to pay extra taxes without impacting their month to month spending (those like me tbf) too much is the sensible approach at the moment.
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
The sight of the tory establishment circling the wagons is impressive. This whole issue clear as day being shrouded in fifty shades of Gray.
It's not going to wash. Even the attempt will make things worse.
Maybe, but the moment appears to have passed. No one has acted. Sunak bottled it. Boris is clearly confident he can survive Gray.
Most of the MPs are using Gray to give them time for a weekend in their constituencies. A lot of them will be like Sutton Coldfield. Next week is critical (assuming we get the report by the end of it).
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
You're looking at a flea bite and saying it's a mountain. It's not. The issue is the actual mountain that demand for goods and services in the US and EU are going to be awful for the next three years. They will also suffer because demand from the UK is about to get shot to pieces.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Depends if Cummings has another bombshell to drop for the weekend papers now
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
The problem with that whole argument is simply this: there have 27 other sources they have free access to, we have none.
Far easier for a Belgian customer to switch from a UK supplier to a German supplier than it is for the UK supplier to switch from a Belgian customer to an Australian customer.
After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.
Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
No, I didn't sleep through it. Give your head a wobble. What do you get from making such a jerkish comment. This isn't twitter where you can get likes and retweets off fellow clowns. I never made a comment about the overall tone of the leave campaign. I wouldn't dispute there was an element of prejudice in some of it. that wasnt the point I was responding to.
I also voted remain. I didn't like either campaign.
However the leave campaign was based on controlled migration not zero migration.
Your man in front of his non racist poster. Making the point that he wants skilled migrants
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
David, just means we buy it from them or someone else at higher cost , it can in no way be seen as a benefit.
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Boris "wins the media cycle today"???
You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
On th real Titanic, the only crew who survived were those required to (rather minimally*) man the lifeboats. The senior officers all stayed with the "black" gang. "The ship left us, we didn't leave the ship" as they used to say.
*One of the real problems on the Titanic was the lack of trained seamen, compared to the number of lifeboats and size of the ship. This is still a problem on modern cruise ships - tons of staff, not many AB
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
The problem with that whole argument is simply this: there have 27 other sources they have free access to, we have none.
Far easier for a Belgian customer to switch from a UK supplier to a German supplier than it is for the UK supplier to switch from a Belgian customer to an Australian customer.
You're not seeing the wood for the trees. The major incoming issue is that there won't be any Belgian customers or Australian customers or British customers.
Yes, with so much other news, this looks like the wrong day to release something which on another day might have been much more damaging. On the other hand, there seem to be such a weight of stories, and they seem to keep so consistently coming at quieter moments, that who knows what tomorrow will bring, or Monday.
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
Like all those cars ? The thing is that Brexit put paid to at least one major investment in new EV manufacturing.
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
It's hard to recall a time when Farage opens his mouth and I agree with what he says.
I'm glad that, yet again, we find ourselves on opposite sides of the argument.
Didn't Farage proclaim this "banana republic" running a "nasty authoritarian country" as our truest friends when they signed the one-sided trade deal, and binned the French to work with us and the US on submarines?
After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.
Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
Don't you get it? People were scared stiff about being swamped by all those black Romanians. That's why 17 million voted leave.
In the same Remainer fantasy world in which Shell and Unilever will move their headquarters, nobody will ever want to do a deal with the UK again, there will be 5 million unemployed and everybody will starve and die without their medicines.
There are plenty of drawbacks to leaving the EU, and not all Leavers are perfect people and many exaggerated the drawbacks of remaining. But pinning racist labels on them is simply wrong.
I'm sure my father was not alone in voting leave because in his words there are enough black people here already (although he wouldn't have used the word black).
Just because a reason is nuts it doesn't mean that isn't the reason for the decision people make.
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
They took a gamble and it paid off. Fair dos to them. I thought they were calling it wrong; they weren't.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Johnson survives unscathed:
Has no-one done a Downfall video yet? I don't have the time, but it is crying out for one.
Yes, with so much other news, this looks like the wrong day to release something which on another day might have been much more damaging. On the other hand, there seem to be such a weight of stories, and they seem to keep so consistently coming at quieter moments, that who knows what tomorrow will bring, or Monday.
How many more Partygate episodes are there in season one, anyone know?
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
You're looking at a flea bite and saying it's a mountain. It's not. The issue is the actual mountain that demand for goods and services in the US and EU are going to be awful for the next three years. They will also suffer because demand from the UK is about to get shot to pieces.
It's only a flea bite now we've done this to ourselves and want to make excuses. When we remove the flea bite - trade deal with Australia etc - it's a Big Thing
The same big thing that has consumed the Tory party for decades - war against pointless bureaucracy and red tape and costs on business.
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
What you are taking about with import substitution is restriction of choice, which means higher prices for the same stuff and ending up net poorer. This is a large part of the Brexit GDP hit, which is bigger than that of Covid.
Yes, with so much other news, this looks like the wrong day to release something which on another day might have been much more damaging. On the other hand, there seem to be such a weight of stories, and they seem to keep so consistently coming at quieter moments, that who knows what tomorrow will bring, or Monday.
How many more Partygate episodes are there in season one, anyone know?
We still have No 10's Xmas 2020 parties and Princess NutNut's Ding Dong the witch (Cummings) is dead party to be covered in detail.
And by the sounds of it every Friday night was party night as soon as Boris left so probably a lot more.
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I think back to Jacob Rees Mogg on Grenfell and…. it’s not just that Boris and co didn’t think lockdown rules applied to them. There’s also a certain contempt for those who “blindly” followed those rules: goody two shoes who can’t think for themselves
On the subject of Carrie being present at these government work meetings: Imagine the furore if Cherie Blair had been spotted at Labour government work meetings.
On topic, brave call from Mike. Johnson is 1.5 to go this year. Up until the May 20th party leak I'd been of the strong view he'd survive but I'm now thinking probably not. Odds look about right to me. No bet.
Yes, with so much other news, this looks like the wrong day to release something which on another day might have been much more damaging. On the other hand, there seem to be such a weight of stories, and they seem to keep so consistently coming at quieter moments, that who knows what tomorrow will bring, or Monday.
How many more Partygate episodes are there in season one, anyone know?
We still have No 10's Xmas 2020 parties and Princess NutNut's Ding Dong the witch (Cummings) is dead party to be covered in detail.
And by the sounds of it every Friday night was party night as soon as Boris left so probably a lot more.
Which did Johnson attend more of in 2020/2021: COBRA meetings or lockdown parties?
Carrie present at these government work meetings: Imagine the furore if Cherie Blair had been spotted at Labour government work meetings.
To defend Carrie here, unlike Cherie, she is a former Director of Communications of a political party, she does have some talent in the political comms/strategy fields.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
There are lots of people who are financially marginal who will struggle.
On the other hand there are lots of people with lots of money who have had their consumption restricted for two years and can easily afford the higher costs and taxes.
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
They took a gamble and it paid off. Fair dos to them. I thought they were calling it wrong; they weren't.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
The evidence that was quite clear from SA, early on, was that the transmissibility was off the charts, Which meant that "lockdowns" wouldn't work. Not even the Chinese style ones.
With an effective R0 in to range of 10 (!), a lockdown reduces that by, maybe, 2.
Ukraine has been hit by a “massive” cyber-attack, with the websites of several government departments including the ministry of foreign affairs and the education ministry knocked out.
Officials said it was too early to draw any conclusions but they pointed to a “long record” of Russian cyber assaults against Ukraine, with the attack coming after security talks between Moscow and the US and its allies this week ended in stalemate.
Yes, with so much other news, this looks like the wrong day to release something which on another day might have been much more damaging. On the other hand, there seem to be such a weight of stories, and they seem to keep so consistently coming at quieter moments, that who knows what tomorrow will bring, or Monday.
How many more Partygate episodes are there in season one, anyone know?
We still have No 10's Xmas 2020 parties and Princess NutNut's Ding Dong the witch (Cummings) is dead party to be covered in detail.
And by the sounds of it every Friday night was party night as soon as Boris left so probably a lot more.
Which did Johnson attend more of in 2020/2021: COBRA meetings or lockdown parties?
As allided to elsewhere, I'm beginning to imagine No.10 as a suburban nightclub called something like "Options", with its sign in that 1980's handwritten, wine-bar and neon script.
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic
Now perhaps there's some Serbian thing Farage has going on.
But I do think there are libertarian / anti-government mindset which thinks there's huge support for opposing restrictions and vaccinations.
Now perhaps there is in the USA.
But in the UK there are few anti-restrictions and anti-vaxxers but a much larger number of anti-restrictions and vaccination supporters who are anti-anti-vaxxers.
One long-time Johnson ally: "The best-case scenario is that Sue Gray reports back . . . and he can then respond with a convincing changing of the guard in Number 10" Martin Reynolds, PM's private secretary, is expected to leave along with several spads.
I think back to Jacob Rees Mogg on Grenfell and…. it’s not just that Boris and co didn’t think lockdown rules applied to them. There’s also a certain contempt for those who “blindly” followed those rules: goody two shoes who can’t think for themselves
What do you expect? These are people who have been taught from a young age to hold the rest of humanity in contempt. Their arrogance and entitlement ooses from every pore. The only thing that surprises me is that it's taken other people so long to notice.
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
They took a gamble and it paid off. Fair dos to them. I thought they were calling it wrong; they weren't.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
The evidence that was quite clear from SA, early on, was that the transmissibility was off the charts, Which meant that "lockdowns" wouldn't work. Not even the Chinese style ones.
With an effective R0 in to range of 10 (!), a lockdown reduces that by, maybe, 2.
I am not sure then whether this had much effect but I feel many people did their own personal 'mini-lockdown' in the run-up to Christmas to protect their family Christmas plans. I would have thought that also made the actual Christmas get togethers less likely to be spreader events (though many still were, of course).
After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
I see immigration is rising by 200 000 after Brexit, which I don't mind personally. It's annoying however that they aren't controlling immigration any more than they were before and we have lost our freedom of movement for nothing.
So, lost all the benefits of EU citizenship and gained, er… er… er…
Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.
Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.
From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
There's always Andrea Leadsom.
Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.
Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.
It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.
Hunt is also now less tainted by links to Cummings than Sunak. He is also more heavyweight and serious than Truss.
However Hunt also wants more Covid restrictions than Boris does, which could split the Tory base
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
How many seats are the Tories defending?
Somewhere around 1,500, I think, but spread all over the place mostly in small opposition groups on Labour councils
Carrie present at these government work meetings: Imagine the furore if Cherie Blair had been spotted at Labour government work meetings.
To defend Carrie here, unlike Cherie, she is a former Director of Communications of a political party, she does have some talent in the political comms/strategy fields.
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Boris "wins the media cycle today"???
You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
I don't think HYUFD is a racist. That is a very unpleasant slur which should be beneath you, but then you are a nationalist.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Why would you lay him at current prices? The value is to back him and get money back if he doesn't start. I'm not certain what BF regard as tournament start date though *** I think *** from the moment the first match starts.
I laid him at 2.7 but yes imo he's still a value lay. Very unlikely he ends up lifting the trophy.
But No10 is aware that more revelations - such as @Tony_Diver@benrileysmith's brilliant overnight scoop on two more No10 parties - could rapidly shift opinion in the Cabinet and among Tory MPs and kill off any hopes of a post-Gray reset.
After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.
Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
Don't you get it? People were scared stiff about being swamped by all those black Romanians. That's why 17 million voted leave.
In the same Remainer fantasy world in which Shell and Unilever will move their headquarters, nobody will ever want to do a deal with the UK again, there will be 5 million unemployed and everybody will starve and die without their medicines.
There are plenty of drawbacks to leaving the EU, and not all Leavers are perfect people and many exaggerated the drawbacks of remaining. But pinning racist labels on them is simply wrong.
Yes. So many arguments are predicated on the assumption that up to half the UK population are political extremists when polling and voting consistently shows overwhelming support for the political centre, centre left (always the majority) and the centre right.
This is too boring to be newsworthy but, thankfully, true. The more interesting question is whether this is true still in the USA, where it might not be.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Yes. But why has he gone from 2.6 to 3.55?
2 reasons -
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
Not convinced by the first and not sure how likely the second is with the length of an appeal process. I feel sorry not just for Djokovic but for all the players as the tournament is become tainted by this.
After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.
The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.
Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
No, I didn't sleep through it. Give your head a wobble. What do you get from making such a jerkish comment. This isn't twitter where you can get likes and retweets off fellow clowns. I never made a comment about the overall tone of the leave campaign. I wouldn't dispute there was an element of prejudice in some of it. that wasnt the point I was responding to.
I also voted remain. I didn't like either campaign.
However the leave campaign was based on controlled migration not zero migration.
Even if the Leave campaign was based on controlled migration rather less of it, which is doubtful, they aren't delivering on it. In the meantime we have lost our liberty for nothing.
If that were the case, why are employers of unskilled labour complaining loudly that they can’t find people and are having to raise wages?
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
This is great. Voters think BoZo is crap, so replace everyone except him...
Worth noting this intervention from @danny__kruger - a long time Johnson supporter who worked with him No10. He hints at the need for a new chief of staff, cabinet secretary and deputy prime minister
One long-time Johnson ally: "The best-case scenario is that Sue Gray reports back . . . and he can then respond with a convincing changing of the guard in Number 10" Martin Reynolds, PM's private secretary, is expected to leave along with several spads.
Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.
Bit of both, I think. There were some early signs from SA that Omicron was probably not going to be bad, but at the point they needed to make the decision (very early) there was by no means enough data to really be confident of that. So they made their bet and their horse, as it turned out, came in; if it hadn't we'd all be rather unhappy now: as with all gambles on uncertain outcomes where you have some information, when you win you're both lucky and right in some measure. You could argue the hypothetical about whether they should have done the analogical equivalent of placing an each-way bet...
They took a gamble and it paid off. Fair dos to them. I thought they were calling it wrong; they weren't.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
The evidence that was quite clear from SA, early on, was that the transmissibility was off the charts, Which meant that "lockdowns" wouldn't work. Not even the Chinese style ones.
With an effective R0 in to range of 10 (!), a lockdown reduces that by, maybe, 2.
I think that's wrong. The way that lockdowns (or voluntary behaviour modification) work is by reducing the number of social contacts. If you cut your social contacts in half then you cut the potential to spread the virus in half. So, if R0 is 4 a cut in half is a reduction of 2, to 2. If R0 is 10, then the same cut in social contacts reduces R by 5, to 5, not by 2, to 8.
Obviously it's still harder to reduce R to under 1, as you have to cut social contacts by more than 90% instead of more than 75%, but it's not as hopeless as your maths would suggest.
If a virus was deadly enough with a high R I'm sure there are all sorts of things that could be attempted to still restrict the spread, if that was the only option available. Omicron is clearly not that virus.
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Boris "wins the media cycle today"???
You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
I don't think HYUFD is a racist. That is a very unpleasant slur which should be beneath you, but then you are a nationalist.
Away and find another dead rat to swallow Sid.
You should withdraw it. It really does show what an unpleasant individual you are. There is nothing he has ever said that justifies your revolting comment. The fact that you come out with such a pathetic response is further indication of who you are and your limited ability to debate. Withdraw the comment.
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Boris "wins the media cycle today"???
You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
On th real Titanic, the only crew who survived were those required to (rather minimally*) man the lifeboats. The senior officers all stayed with the "black" gang. "The ship left us, we didn't leave the ship" as they used to say.
*One of the real problems on the Titanic was the lack of trained seamen, compared to the number of lifeboats and size of the ship. This is still a problem on modern cruise ships - tons of staff, not many AB
One reason out of hundreds that I will never buy a holiday on a plague boat.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
May was also in that 'not the favourite' category IIRC.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Yes. But why has he gone from 2.6 to 3.55?
2 reasons -
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
Not convinced by the first and not sure how likely the second is with the length of an appeal process. I feel sorry not just for Djokovic but for all the players as the tournament is become tainted by this.
He's my favourite player - I'm a big fan - but I do think he's acting like an utter dick on this. Possibly career ending if he's not careful.
I'd expect it to go relatively quiet for a few days now - the media will think "Oh, another party" is boring and there's time to heat it up again when Sue Gray reports. But the problem about limited public attention span is that people tend to decide on a view and then stick to it unless something new comes up. So the view that the PM is unreliable and MPs are putting up with it for political reasons will remain settled unless the story changes.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Albeit most of England does not have elections this year, the only areas all council seats are up are in mainly Labour London and Wales and SNP Scotland.
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
He's had his chips whether it is before or after May.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Based on previous Tory Party contests I would say it is likely to be someone most haven't thought of: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. Bozo is the only one where the obvious favourite has won IIRC.
I think I'd be on Harper as a long-shot. He's been banging on for ages about how the Covid laws should only ever have been guidelines, and he has run for leader before.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Yes. But why has he gone from 2.6 to 3.55?
2 reasons -
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
Not convinced by the first and not sure how likely the second is with the length of an appeal process. I feel sorry not just for Djokovic but for all the players as the tournament is become tainted by this.
He's my favourite player - I'm a big fan - but I do think he's acting like an utter dick on this. Possibly career ending if he's not careful.
Truly don't understand the Aus Open Prices on Betfair now,
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
You know a lay of Djoko is voided if he doesn't start right?
Yes. But why has he gone from 2.6 to 3.55?
2 reasons -
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
Not convinced by the first and not sure how likely the second is with the length of an appeal process. I feel sorry not just for Djokovic but for all the players as the tournament is become tainted by this.
He's my favourite player - I'm a big fan - but I do think he's acting like an utter dick on this. Possibly career ending if he's not careful.
His sponsors must all be 'considering their position'.
UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.
Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.
I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
And for them. And they sell us a lot more than we sell them. There's the margin of £70bn of trade up for grabs by import substitution. I really don't understand why people always ignore that. It will be an important driver of growth in the medium term even though it will take time to feed through.
David, just means we buy it from them or someone else at higher cost , it can in no way be seen as a benefit.
Or we make it ourselves Malcolm. Which is not so much a benefit as a necessity. Our economic policies when we were in the single market were ultimately disastrous and will adversely affect growth in the UK for at least the next decade as we pay profits, rent and dividends to those who bought up our businesses, our infrastructure and even our houses with the proceeds of the deficit. This really, really needs to change. It will require more saving, less consumption and more investment in the UK. Its not going to be easy but every long journey starts with a single step.
Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.
Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.
It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.
Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.
Poor Dom!
Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.
Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
Boris "wins the media cycle today"???
You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
I don't think HYUFD is a racist. That is a very unpleasant slur which should be beneath you, but then you are a nationalist.
Away and find another dead rat to swallow Sid.
You should withdraw it. It really does show what an unpleasant individual you are. There is nothing he has ever said that justifies your revolting comment. The fact that you come out with such a pathetic response is further indication of who you are and your limited ability to debate. Withdraw the comment.
Comments
In the end of course neither Portillo or Milliband were able to bring down the PM in power to take the crown and ended up even losing the leadership in opposition to IDS and Ed Miliband respectively
Indeed, one of Johnson’s problems is that the most ardent Brexiteers in the parliamentary party are not particularly enamoured of his leadership. Many of them have fallen out with him over lockdown or tax rises. They applauded the resignation of his Brexit minister, Lord Frost, in protest at the “political direction” of the government. They are frustrated that the government isn’t doing more with its hard-won Brexit freedoms. “There’s no way of telling people why we did Brexit because we are not doing anything,” complains a former cabinet minister who was a key figure in Johnson’s leadership campaign.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-mps-are-waiting-until-voters-boos-are-deafening-p58stz0d2
You are right of course. That's why the tax rises should have been focused on the highest earners and the asset rich. Taking money from the poor (see also the refusal to extend the UC uplift) takes it straight out of the economy. Taking it from the wealthiest would have minimal negative effect on the economy over the next few years.
Even if one is philosophically against wealth redistribution, taxing those who can afford to pay extra taxes without impacting their month to month spending (those like me tbf) too much is the sensible approach at the moment.
Along with 'muffin choker', which apparently has the same innocent meaning...
I'm glad that, yet again, we find ourselves on opposite sides of the argument.
I thought I had a handle on it but clearly I do not.
First topic he raised... Andrew?, Djokovic?, the cricket? No. You guessed it, the disgraceful shambles of a PM in no.10. He's incandescent.
Previously he's avoided the issue like he would an embarrassing relative not to be mentioned.
The politicians who I'd think will be most annoyed by this are Conservative councillors up for re-election in May. It seems quite likely that they will be deliberately sacrificed in order to give the Parliamentary Party a bit longer to make up their minds.
Far easier for a Belgian customer to switch from a UK supplier to a German supplier than it is for the UK supplier to switch from a Belgian customer to an Australian customer.
“She’s a method actor,” says one MP. “She plays the role of a high-achiever without any actual achievements.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3644716/Nigel-Farage-racism-storm-Brexit-poster-showing-thousands-male-refugees-warning-country-breaking-point.html
*One of the real problems on the Titanic was the lack of trained seamen, compared to the number of lifeboats and size of the ship. This is still a problem on modern cruise ships - tons of staff, not many AB
The thing is that Brexit put paid to at least one major investment in new EV manufacturing.
That banana republic?
Just because a reason is nuts it doesn't mean that isn't the reason for the decision people make.
Could easily have gone the other way of course.
The absolute hilarity of it is they are going to get no credit at all for backing the right horse because... Partygate.
It's not even a joke about defence.
PB - always an education.
(Now 3.55)
How many more Partygate episodes are there in season one, anyone know?
The same big thing that has consumed the Tory party for decades - war against pointless bureaucracy and red tape and costs on business.
If so then why didn't he sack Reynolds afterwards for organising a social event.
Lays of Djokovic may be void, but backs of other favourites may not be.
I don't know if there is a rule 4 equivalent on backs of the field though.
And by the sounds of it every Friday night was party night as soon as Boris left so probably a lot more.
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1481917626892931079
"Capitol riot: Oath Keepers leader charged with seditious conspiracy"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59989124
So there will be Tory losses but nothing like the scale of May 2019 when most of England had local elections and over 1,000 Tory councillors lost their seats after May failed to deliver Brexit
On the other hand there are lots of people with lots of money who have had their consumption restricted for two years and can easily afford the higher costs and taxes.
With an effective R0 in to range of 10 (!), a lockdown reduces that by, maybe, 2.
Officials said it was too early to draw any conclusions but they pointed to a “long record” of Russian cyber assaults against Ukraine, with the attack coming after security talks between Moscow and the US and its allies this week ended in stalemate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/ukraine-massive-cyber-attack-government-websites-suspected-russian-hackers
https://londonist.com/2015/02/why-do-the-guns-of-hms-belfast-point-at-a-motorway-service-station
He stated that he was fully signed up to the theory that Edward Heath, in later life, was always wrong. With great reliability.
I can't see past Sunak, Hunt and Truss, in that order (and have long-term bets on all three at monster prices). Anyone else with a reasonable chance outside of these three?
Boris & Carrie Johnson were married in May 2021, when there were restrictions in place on wedding/party sizes.
Given what we know, are they like to have restriction complying parties in the run up to the wedding and afterwards?
First, that if he somehow plays his chances have decreased with this terrible buildup and expected crowd hostility.
Second, the possibility that he might start with an appeal ending and then get thrown out. Bet settles as a loser.
But I do think there are libertarian / anti-government mindset which thinks there's huge support for opposing restrictions and vaccinations.
Now perhaps there is in the USA.
But in the UK there are few anti-restrictions and anti-vaxxers but a much larger number of anti-restrictions and vaccination supporters who are anti-anti-vaxxers.
https://www.ft.com/content/433645d1-2911-4480-9e88-d0096c10de21
https://www.ft.com/content/433645d1-2911-4480-9e88-d0096c10de21
This is too boring to be newsworthy but, thankfully, true. The more interesting question is whether this is true still in the USA, where it might not be.
Worth noting this intervention from @danny__kruger - a long time Johnson supporter who worked with him No10. He hints at the need for a new chief of staff, cabinet secretary and deputy prime minister
https://www.dannykruger.org.uk/news/my-response-downing-street-parties-13-january-2022 https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1481921109062823938/photo/1
I suspect Boris doesn't do much work at his work events and thinks social events are actually work.
Obviously it's still harder to reduce R to under 1, as you have to cut social contacts by more than 90% instead of more than 75%, but it's not as hopeless as your maths would suggest.
If a virus was deadly enough with a high R I'm sure there are all sorts of things that could be attempted to still restrict the spread, if that was the only option available. Omicron is clearly not that virus.
Every day is a school day on PB.