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I still think Johnson will survive – politicalbetting.com

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.

    Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.

    From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
    There's always Andrea Leadsom.

    Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Its very lucky some unknown individual close to Boris has got covid today.

    The assumption is that this is a lie, but it's just possible the person with covid is BoZo himself
    No, Johnson confirms a positive test for COVID around day 7, giving him another length of time to hide, then fails to test negative until some time after days 5 and 6 of his own isolation.
    Sounds about right.

    Stupid is as stupid does.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm blocked by them, apparently.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.

    Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.

    From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
    They’re waiting until after the May bloodbath. An error of gigantic proportions.
    Do they have any choice? Truss was undermined by bad polls, Hunt does not excite and Sunak doesn’t have any vocal support on the backbenches. Can any of them get 54 letter’s together? Let alone win a vonc. It’s not going to happen.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2022

    Claims of Johnson’s demise are greatly exaggerated imo

    I had thought so too - but appearing to diss the Queen as she buried her husband of 70 years may be a gaffe too far even for Teflon Johnson.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    NEW: No 10 respond to latest party allegations describing them as a “farewell speech”.

    “On this individual’s last day he gave a farewell speech to thank each team for the work they had done, both those who had to be in the office and on a screen for those working from home.”

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481903001019240454
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Jonathan said:

    The sight of the tory establishment circling the wagons is impressive. This whole issue clear as day being shrouded in fifty shades of Gray.

    Nope. Not impressive at all. They are simply going to further infuriate people.
    Tbf I think he (rightly) means impressive in the sense that a tapeworm is impressively long.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: No 10 respond to latest party allegations describing them as a “farewell speech”.

    “On this individual’s last day he gave a farewell speech to thank each team for the work they had done, both those who had to be in the office and on a screen for those working from home.”

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481903001019240454

    Their modus operandi really is essentially open mockery and irony.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    Where’s FUDHY this morning? Signing up to the Plaid Cymru for Liz Truss Leadership Campaign?

    Only “Real Tories” (sic) are welcome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022

    The Morning Star
    Mirror
    New Statesman
    Guardian


    Daily Express

    Found out as a charlatan' UK voters turn on Boris as PM facing growing pressure to resign

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1481897182064222209?s=20

    First the Daily Telegraph and the Financial Times, now the Express. The end is surely nigh?

    What’s the Mail’s line?
    It has buried this latest story halfway down its page, so far. It's true that there's a lot of news around at the moment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Damian Hinds given the hospital pass this morning of defending the partying culture.
    His hesitation has echoes of Big Ben Swain

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALNjevGdB5g
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: No 10 respond to latest party allegations describing them as a “farewell speech”.

    “On this individual’s last day he gave a farewell speech to thank each team for the work they had done, both those who had to be in the office and on a screen for those working from home.”

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481903001019240454

    Mendacity is as mendacity does.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    A disco in the basement. A Suitcase of booze. Belated apologies.
    A PM who said all guidelines were followed at all times in No 10

    And a Govt minister says:

    ‘This has been a difficult time for trust in politics.
    -Damian Hinds
    #r4today

    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1481904584977174529
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,296
    I'm basically unsure, but lean towards Boris surviving. He tends to.

    But he is damaged goods. A net negative now, like Corbyn in 2019.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Its very lucky some unknown individual close to Boris has got covid today.

    The assumption is that this is a lie, but it's just possible the person with covid is BoZo himself
    No, Johnson confirms a positive test for COVID around day 7, giving him another length of time to hide, then fails to test negative until some time after days 5 and 6 of his own isolation.
    Sounds about right.

    Stupid is as stupid does.
    Maybe a whiskey sour got spilt alongside the red wine. Tricky stuff, lemon juice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    eek said:

    It's obvious and surely been posted before
    Ed Morrish
    @edmorrish
    Amazing to think The Sun missed out on this scoop despite the fact that THEIR FUCKING DEPUTY EDITOR WAS FUCKING THERE.

    Ordinarily that would get you fired. BUT this isn't ordinary. The newspaper knew these were going on because the guy deciding what politics stories to run was (a) there and (b) the reason for at least one of the parties.

    The S*n has chosen not to be a newspaper, to actively participate in covering this up for political reasons. Which they are entitled to do - but they need to stop pretending they are a newspaper.

    Ooh Ah Daily Star has had better political coverage than they have.
    All newspapers protect their friends.

    In the run up to the MPs expense scandal, the chap who had the pile of information tried the Guardian. He went to the Telegraph, after the Guardian made it clear that they wouldn't publish all the troughers details - just the ones they wanted to.

    That ability to decide what was news and what wasn't was the basis of the political power of papers in the old days.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Were you boozing and dancing until the early hours the night before HM the Queen buried her husband?

    If not, why not?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    I see immigration is rising by 200 000 after Brexit, which I don't mind personally. It's annoying however that they aren't controlling immigration any more than they were before and we have lost our freedom of movement for nothing.
  • HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Epic Fail
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    On topic, I agree. Actually added a bit to my bet on Starmer yesterday morning when the price was over 9. I don't think Johnson goes before the local elections, barring other revelations. I'll probably look to lay some back before May, though (late yesterday the price was already in a bit).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    eek said:

    It's obvious and surely been posted before
    Ed Morrish
    @edmorrish
    Amazing to think The Sun missed out on this scoop despite the fact that THEIR FUCKING DEPUTY EDITOR WAS FUCKING THERE.

    Ordinarily that would get you fired. BUT this isn't ordinary. The newspaper knew these were going on because the guy deciding what politics stories to run was (a) there and (b) the reason for at least one of the parties.

    The S*n has chosen not to be a newspaper, to actively participate in covering this up for political reasons. Which they are entitled to do - but they need to stop pretending they are a newspaper.

    Ooh Ah Daily Star has had better political coverage than they have.
    All newspapers protect their friends.

    In the run up to the MPs expense scandal, the chap who had the pile of information tried the Guardian. He went to the Telegraph, after the Guardian made it clear that they wouldn't publish all the troughers details - just the ones they wanted to.

    That ability to decide what was news and what wasn't was the basis of the political power of papers in the old days.
    There’s still the unwritten rule of Fleet St, that they don’t go after each other.

    I wonder how many ‘parties’ were had in the offices of newspapers and TV stations, in the past two years? Using their definition of ‘party’, that they’re now applying to what went on in Downing St.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    eek said:

    It's obvious and surely been posted before
    Ed Morrish
    @edmorrish
    Amazing to think The Sun missed out on this scoop despite the fact that THEIR FUCKING DEPUTY EDITOR WAS FUCKING THERE.

    Ordinarily that would get you fired. BUT this isn't ordinary. The newspaper knew these were going on because the guy deciding what politics stories to run was (a) there and (b) the reason for at least one of the parties.

    The S*n has chosen not to be a newspaper, to actively participate in covering this up for political reasons. Which they are entitled to do - but they need to stop pretending they are a newspaper.

    Ooh Ah Daily Star has had better political coverage than they have.
    All newspapers protect their friends.

    In the run up to the MPs expense scandal, the chap who had the pile of information tried the Guardian. He went to the Telegraph, after the Guardian made it clear that they wouldn't publish all the troughers details - just the ones they wanted to.

    That ability to decide what was news and what wasn't was the basis of the political power of papers in the old days.
    Source for that? Wiki merely says

    "The information in the leaks published by The Daily Telegraph originated from the parliamentary fees office, and had been offered to other newspaper organisations for more than £150,000.[35] In September 2009, the assistant editor of the Telegraph, Andrew Pierce, revealed in an interview that the newspaper had paid £110,000 for the information, and described it as 'money well spent in the public interest'. The Times and The Sun had turned down an offer to buy the leaked expenses file.[36]"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Claims of Johnson’s demise are greatly exaggerated imo

    I had thought so too - but appearing to diss the Queen as she buried her husband of 70 years may be a gaffe too far even for Teflon Johnson.
    It's a question of when, now.
  • Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    It got boring speaking to people who wanted all the poles and romanians to leave. Not everyone who voted leave was racist, but denying that there was a sizeable "forrin go home" caucus is revising history.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Dom didn't leak this story - it's from after he left and the timing isn't Dom's.

    He would have kept quiet until Grey had published and reveal a party or 3 that isn't in the report.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
    So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.

    Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
  • Ironically this may well end up being the photo that we most associate with Boris Johnson forever.


  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.

    Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.

    From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
    There's always Andrea Leadsom.

    Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
    Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.

    Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.

    It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643

    Claims of Johnson’s demise are greatly exaggerated imo

    I had thought so too - but appearing to diss the Queen as she buried her husband of 70 years may be a gaffe too far even for Teflon Johnson.
    It's a question of when, now.
    Are you sure?


    Gray will fudge it
    The cabinet will rally round
    Time will allow Boris to undermine challengers.
    There will be no one able to step in.
    It will be too close to May 2024.

    The party goes on.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    edited January 2022
    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    No, I didn't sleep through it. Give your head a wobble. What do you get from making such a jerkish comment. This isn't twitter where you can get likes and retweets off fellow clowns. I never made a comment about the overall tone of the leave campaign. I wouldn't dispute there was an element of prejudice in some of it. that wasnt the point I was responding to.

    I also voted remain. I didn't like either campaign.

    However the leave campaign was based on controlled migration not zero migration.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Leon said:

    FPT for TSE


    That's quite a plausible theory

    I have a few friends in their fifties who have high libidos but their post menopausal wives are no longer, ah, putting out. They aren't used to womanising (they have forgotten how to seduce or flirt) and whoring is too weird, strange or immoral for them

    Their decline is absolutely obvious. Lack of sex has turned them into sad mumbling hobos, a bit like Boris right now

    More likely their wives are with young virile men and avoiding the old has beens.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Epic Fail
    This story will run and run and run. It is drip drip drip. Death by a thousand cuts. I suspect HYUFD hopes it is over rather than expects it is over.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Dom didn't leak this story - it's from after he left and the timing isn't Dom's.

    He would have kept quiet until Grey had published and reveal a party or 3 that isn't in the report.
    All of this is Cummings, this is currently a Cummings v Boris revenge battle
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    I turned on Pb this morning and there was a large picture of the PM's grinning face. Flicked to the end and there was his torso.

    Is this in danger of becoming a porn site?

    So not a Good Morning; Hello!

    Edit. At least the cricket looks more positive!

    So it is you to blame. 😊
  • So we have:

    The government shown to be right about Omicron.
    Some good economic data.
    The Chinese spies story potentially embarrassing for Labour.
    Even the weather is good for the time of year.

    But everyone is focussed upon the self inflicted damage of Downing Street idiots.
  • Sir Keir Starmer's going to have great fun next week at PMQs unless Boris the Coward sends Michael Ellis to respond to Starmer.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Ironically this may well end up being the photo that we most associate with Boris Johnson forever.


    This one will be the campaign version

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Scott_xP said:

    FT View: The game is up for Boris Johnson
    https://on.ft.com/3qmNM81

    Yet his apology was flawed and inadequate.

    It strains the credulity of the most diehard Tory voter for Johnson to claim he believed the event was a “work gathering”. Johnson’s statement in parliament was still couched, moreover, as an apology for any perception of wrongdoing, not for the wrongdoing itself. The prime minister was afterwards reported to be in denial, telling MPs that “sometimes you get the blame for something you don’t deserve”. If so, this betrays how out of touch he is with the public mood.

    Voters initially warmed to Johnson because he embodied the anarchic streak that coexists with British respect for rules and fair play. They have forgiven many lapses. Now, however, his cavalier attitude to institutions and to the truth — and the belief that there is one rule for the country and another for its leadership — has become intolerable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.

    Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.

    From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
    There's always Andrea Leadsom.

    Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
    Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.

    Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.

    It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.

    Hunt is also now less tainted by links to Cummings than Sunak. He is also more heavyweight and serious than Truss.

    However Hunt also wants more Covid restrictions than Boris does, which could split the Tory base
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Jonathan said:

    The sight of the tory establishment circling the wagons is impressive. This whole issue clear as day being shrouded in fifty shades of Gray.

    It's not going to wash. Even the attempt will make things worse.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Dom didn't leak this story - it's from after he left and the timing isn't Dom's.

    He would have kept quiet until Grey had published and reveal a party or 3 that isn't in the report.
    All of this is Cummings, this is currently a Cummings v Boris revenge battle
    That’s the spin.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
    So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.

    Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
    Good morning

    The first post I read is another sycophantic Boris piece by his last remaining disciple

    Boris is over and time for you to accept the conservative party is more important than any individual especially one so discredited and now an embarrassment
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    It got boring speaking to people who wanted all the poles and romanians to leave. Not everyone who voted leave was racist, but denying that there was a sizeable "forrin go home" caucus is revising history.
    It was the driving force. The PPB for Leave was overtly racist. Even lining up behind a campaign that used the PPB and Farage's poster should have made non racicts wince yet what we discovered was that 52% of our fellow countrymen were either too stupid-being charitable- or happy to be racist
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    FF43 said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    I see immigration is rising by 200 000 after Brexit, which I don't mind personally. It's annoying however that they aren't controlling immigration any more than they were before and we have lost our freedom of movement for nothing.
    So, lost all the benefits of EU citizenship and gained, er… er… er…
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    So we have:

    The government shown to be right about Omicron.
    Some good economic data.
    The Chinese spies story potentially embarrassing for Labour.
    Even the weather is good for the time of year.

    But everyone is focussed upon the self inflicted damage of Downing Street idiots.

    Yep, but pretty much every political career is brought to an end by character flaws that manifest themselves over time. The government is doing a pretty good job at the moment but Boris is a congenital liar with no self discipline and its both infectious and fatal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The sight of the tory establishment circling the wagons is impressive. This whole issue clear as day being shrouded in fifty shades of Gray.

    It's not going to wash. Even the attempt will make things worse.
    Maybe, but the moment appears to have passed. No one has acted. Sunak bottled it. Boris is clearly confident he can survive Gray.
  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
    No, the racist campaign that wanted a "points based immigration system" where people leave and don't return. Note that we didn't actually use the new system to bring labour into the country when acutely needed, and won't be signing deals allowing unchecked migration from places like India who demand it - and told us so before Brexit - for a trade deal.

    Controlling your borders is not racist. But voting Brexit because there are too many brown faces in Tesco is racist. A lot of people did the latter, and Farage et al encouraged them. What do you think the fake Turkey poster was all about?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Taz said:

    This is the story that really grinds my gears, around the same time these people were partying.

    A lad in the North of the county organised a balloon release to commemorate a lad who took his own life (a very troubled young man who, at a young age, saw his Father murder his Mother). He was advised this would be illegal. Cancelled it. It still went ahead. He got an £800 fine. The community rallied round to pay it. Then Durham cops came back and said, sorry, should have been £10K and landed an 18 year old with a £10K bill for a well meaning gesture to commemorate a tragic loss of life.

    I know everyone has a sob story at the moment and dancing nurses on Tik Tok are quite happy to criticise number 10 but this story and the Police reaction to it, around the same time there were parties in number 10 and no comeback at all for these people just pisses me off.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/police-fine-teen-10k-jamie-20522921

    This was, wasn't it, the same police force that decided Cummins had no case to answer?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Dom didn't leak this story - it's from after he left and the timing isn't Dom's.

    He would have kept quiet until Grey had published and reveal a party or 3 that isn't in the report.
    All of this is Cummings, this is currently a Cummings v Boris revenge battle
    Nope Cummings is too clever to release any details now, there is no point.

    The thing is you see everything in black in white while what I actually see here is someone joining in at completely the wrong time.

    Also this party is post Cummings' departure and you've previously repeated multiple times that Cummings doesn't have anything post his departure (which this party definitely is)
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
    So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.

    Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
    Boris "wins the media cycle today"???

    You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Taz said:

    This is the story that really grinds my gears, around the same time these people were partying.

    A lad in the North of the county organised a balloon release to commemorate a lad who took his own life (a very troubled young man who, at a young age, saw his Father murder his Mother). He was advised this would be illegal. Cancelled it. It still went ahead. He got an £800 fine. The community rallied round to pay it. Then Durham cops came back and said, sorry, should have been £10K and landed an 18 year old with a £10K bill for a well meaning gesture to commemorate a tragic loss of life.

    I know everyone has a sob story at the moment and dancing nurses on Tik Tok are quite happy to criticise number 10 but this story and the Police reaction to it, around the same time there were parties in number 10 and no comeback at all for these people just pisses me off.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/police-fine-teen-10k-jamie-20522921

    This was, wasn't it, the same police force that decided Cummins had no case to answer?
    Yep Durham police (who are actually not that bad in comparison to say North Yorks and Cleveland but that isn't a high bar).
  • Jonathan said:

    Claims of Johnson’s demise are greatly exaggerated imo

    I had thought so too - but appearing to diss the Queen as she buried her husband of 70 years may be a gaffe too far even for Teflon Johnson.
    It's a question of when, now.
    Are you sure?


    Gray will fudge it
    The cabinet will rally round
    Time will allow Boris to undermine challengers.
    There will be no one able to step in.
    It will be too close to May 2024.

    The party goes on.
    If the party goes on it won't be May 24. You don't go for an early election when the polls show that you will get smashed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The sight of the tory establishment circling the wagons is impressive. This whole issue clear as day being shrouded in fifty shades of Gray.

    It's not going to wash. Even the attempt will make things worse.
    Maybe, but the moment appears to have passed. No one has acted. Sunak bottled it. Boris is clearly confident he can survive Gray.
    Were Sunak to be planning to resign it will be when Grey's report comes out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    DavidL said:

    Head once again putting England to the sword here. Game swinging back Australia's way by the over.

    Does this never end? We seem to have been playing them for months.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Nigelb said:

    I turned on Pb this morning and there was a large picture of the PM's grinning face. Flicked to the end and there was his torso.

    Is this in danger of becoming a porn site?

    So not a Good Morning; Hello!

    Edit. At least the cricket looks more positive!

    So it is you to blame. 😊
    Apparently!
    Apologies.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    edited January 2022

    Jonathan said:

    Claims of Johnson’s demise are greatly exaggerated imo

    I had thought so too - but appearing to diss the Queen as she buried her husband of 70 years may be a gaffe too far even for Teflon Johnson.
    It's a question of when, now.
    Are you sure?


    Gray will fudge it
    The cabinet will rally round
    Time will allow Boris to undermine challengers.
    There will be no one able to step in.
    It will be too close to May 2024.

    The party goes on.
    If the party goes on it won't be May 24. You don't go for an early election when the polls show that you will get smashed.
    May24 was the last date.
  • FF43 said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    I see immigration is rising by 200 000 after Brexit, which I don't mind personally. It's annoying however that they aren't controlling immigration any more than they were before and we have lost our freedom of movement for nothing.
    So, lost all the benefits of EU citizenship and gained, er… er… er…
    Higher pay.
  • HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.

    Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.

    From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
    There's always Andrea Leadsom.

    Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
    Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.

    Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.

    It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.

    Hunt is also now less tainted by links to Cummings than Sunak. He is also more heavyweight and serious than Truss.

    However Hunt also wants more Covid restrictions than Boris does, which could split the Tory base
    In which case the analogy is still 1994-7. An obviously fatally wounded PM limping on. Partly for lack of agreement on the alternative, but also because the gig looks impossible. Once defeat is baked in, it's tempting to wait and take over post-defeat. Something similar happened to Labour in late 2016/early 2017.

    It feels too early to be thinking like that, but who knows? At some point, the Conservatives might slip into "make out like bandits until the election, for then we die." One Telegraph hack called Boris described the run-up to 1997 as "beery, demented futility". That may be the template.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.

    Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.

    I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Were you boozing and dancing until the early hours the night before HM the Queen buried her husband?

    If not, why not?
    To be fair, it's what he would have wanted.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
    Don't you get it? People were scared stiff about being swamped by all those black Romanians. That's why 17 million voted leave.

    In the same Remainer fantasy world in which Shell and Unilever will move their headquarters, nobody will ever want to do a deal with the UK again, there will be 5 million unemployed and everybody will starve and die without their medicines.

    There are plenty of drawbacks to leaving the EU, and not all Leavers are perfect people and many exaggerated the drawbacks of remaining. But pinning racist labels on them is simply wrong.
  • So we have:

    The government shown to be right about Omicron.
    Some good economic data.
    The Chinese spies story potentially embarrassing for Labour.
    Even the weather is good for the time of year.

    But everyone is focussed upon the self inflicted damage of Downing Street idiots.

    Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.

    We're all very glad that Omicron has burned itself out and that the tidal wave is receding. But hoping the wave doesn't sweep us away and getting lucky is not making the right call.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    In which case the analogy is still 1994-7. An obviously fatally wounded PM limping on. Partly for lack of agreement on the alternative, but also because the gig looks impossible. Once defeat is baked in, it's tempting to wait and take over post-defeat. Something similar happened to Labour in late 2016/early 2017.

    It feels too early to be thinking like that, but who knows? At some point, the Conservatives might slip into "make out like bandits until the election, for then we die." One Telegraph hack called Boris described the run-up to 1997 as "beery, demented futility". That may be the template.

    The Tories have 2 years to rescue the next election if they act now.

    The calculation must be how much more damage BoZo can do on the way out...
  • Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
    Don't you get it? People were scared stiff about being swamped by all those black Romanians. That's why 17 million voted leave.
    It was the year after the migration crisis from the middle east, which certainly contributed hugely to the leave campaign.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited January 2022
    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    No, I didn't sleep through it. Give your head a wobble. What do you get from making such a jerkish comment. This isn't twitter where you can get likes and retweets off fellow clowns. I never made a comment about the overall tone of the leave campaign. I wouldn't dispute there was an element of prejudice in some of it. that wasnt the point I was responding to.

    I also voted remain. I didn't like either campaign.

    However the leave campaign was based on controlled migration not zero migration.
    Even if the Leave campaign was based on controlled migration rather less of it, which is doubtful, they aren't delivering on it. In the meantime we have lost our liberty for nothing.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    I said before I half-expected noone to know what was happening with Djokovic literally minutes before his first match of the tournament and we seem to keep inching closer and closer to that manifesting itself in reality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    MaxPB said:

    UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.

    Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.

    I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.

    Bah, I forecast that the economy would go above pre Covid levels in December and it was November. I must resist this excessive pessimism.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The ball has come loose from the scrum - and Tories are standing gawping, with no one picking it up.

    My column on why the Conservatives are not ready for a leadership contest:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/13/regicidal-tories-wont-oust-boris-successor-steps/
  • I see that the people who have been claiming that 'all the Europeans have left the country' are now claiming that immigration is out of control.

    The truth, as usual, is somewhere between the two extremes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    So we have:

    The government shown to be right about Omicron.
    Some good economic data.
    The Chinese spies story potentially embarrassing for Labour.
    Even the weather is good for the time of year.

    But everyone is focussed upon the self inflicted damage of Downing Street idiots.

    Basic point - the government were lucky with Omicron, not right. At the time they decided to ride it out the data didn't exist from any source showing that "it'll be fine" was the appropriate response.

    We're all very glad that Omicron has burned itself out and that the tidal wave is receding. But hoping the wave doesn't sweep us away and getting lucky is not making the right call.
    No, they weren't lucky with Omicron. They followed the science from South Africa, the data did exist but only in Gauteng and other parts of South Africa. They made the right call.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    eek said:

    Claims of Johnson’s demise are greatly exaggerated imo

    Yep - he's fatally wounded and the Tory party is morally destroyed but Boris and the party can keep going to 2024

    But every day that continues like this will cause the Tory party long term (possible irreparable) harm
    But will it? They are famous for their Dr Who like reinventions. Dangers in all this for the opposition include:

    - So much focus on Downing St parties that a narrative emerges that this is the only thing wrong with the government. Otherwise they were much of a muchness. People forget the chaos over HS2/3, PPE contracts and Downing St makeover, universal credit, the EU relationship etc.
    - Boris as the scapegoat taking the Tories' sins with them into the desert. New fresh faced leader suitably critical of the ancien regime and all is forgiven
    - Outrage fatigue and a few Labour stories (like the Chinese spy) that encourage a "they're all as bad as each other"
    - The now apparently inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine which gets everyone rallying to the flag yet again

    Against that we have the huge problem of energy prices, which I can't see an easy solution to especially if Russia does invade.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
    So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.

    Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
    Boris "wins the media cycle today"???

    You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
    The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    I can’t see how any Tory MP looks at the current management of the party and concludes it is best to limp on with Johnson in charge.

    Unless they take a similar mindset to HFUYD, in which case I can half believe they think Johnson is the messiah who will lead them to glory again in 2024
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    TimS said:

    - Boris as the scapegoat taking the Tories' sins with them into the desert. New fresh faced leader suitably critical of the ancien regime and all is forgiven

    Depends.

    If the new leader is a headbanger, they can criticise BoZo for fucking up Brexit.

    If they are not, any criticism of BoZo will inherently also be critical of "the project" and risk civil war.

    Which is nice...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1481910092450705408?s=20
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Politico in France have had a go at translating “marmalade-dropper” re: the latest Partygate claims - suggesting you could compare it to “choking on your croissant” https://twitter.com/TomHourigan/status/1481892825490993152/photo/1
  • HYUFD said:

    Farage calls Australia, along with New Zealand the only country we have a new post Brexit trade deal with, a 'banana republic' and 'nasty authoritarian country' for removing a visa from the unvaccinated Djokovic

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1481910092450705408?s=20

    You have to wonder who is pulling his strings
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Jonathan said:

    Claims of Johnson’s demise are greatly exaggerated imo

    I had thought so too - but appearing to diss the Queen as she buried her husband of 70 years may be a gaffe too far even for Teflon Johnson.
    It's a question of when, now.
    Are you sure?


    Gray will fudge it
    The cabinet will rally round
    Time will allow Boris to undermine challengers.
    There will be no one able to step in.
    It will be too close to May 2024.

    The party goes on.
    If the party goes on it won't be May 24. You don't go for an early election when the polls show that you will get smashed.
    Isn't May 24 the bitter end under Fixed Term Parliament Act? Although simply extending the fixed term from 5 to 25 years might work. So next GE May 44.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    It got boring speaking to people who wanted all the poles and romanians to leave. Not everyone who voted leave was racist, but denying that there was a sizeable "forrin go home" caucus is revising history.
    It was the driving force. The PPB for Leave was overtly racist. Even lining up behind a campaign that used the PPB and Farage's poster should have made non racicts wince yet what we discovered was that 52% of our fellow countrymen were either too stupid-being charitable- or happy to be racist
    I had been told repeatedly by a born-and-bred Thornabian that the town was riddled with "Parochial Bigotry". If you weren't also born and bred you were an outsider and always would be. The mosque tries and tries to be part of the town but gets shunned, the Sikh Gurdwara had "Muslims go Home" scrawled on it after brexit - the local racists being so think they don't know what a Sikh is.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    This is the story that really grinds my gears, around the same time these people were partying.

    A lad in the North of the county organised a balloon release to commemorate a lad who took his own life (a very troubled young man who, at a young age, saw his Father murder his Mother). He was advised this would be illegal. Cancelled it. It still went ahead. He got an £800 fine. The community rallied round to pay it. Then Durham cops came back and said, sorry, should have been £10K and landed an 18 year old with a £10K bill for a well meaning gesture to commemorate a tragic loss of life.

    I know everyone has a sob story at the moment and dancing nurses on Tik Tok are quite happy to criticise number 10 but this story and the Police reaction to it, around the same time there were parties in number 10 and no comeback at all for these people just pisses me off.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/police-fine-teen-10k-jamie-20522921

    This was, wasn't it, the same police force that decided Cummins had no case to answer?
    Yep Durham police (who are actually not that bad in comparison to say North Yorks and Cleveland but that isn't a high bar).
    I would agree that usually Durham Police are pretty good. This just really jarred because they fined the lad, he accepted it, then they came back and demanded a life changing sum for a well meaning 17 year old and their response was stereotypical corporate bollocks.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Partygate didn’t bump Prince Andrew off the top slot on last nights front pages, it’s leading R4’s Today.

    Partygate now a minor story on BBC News behind the major breaking news that the Australian government has revoked Djokovic's visa this morning.

    It was overshadowed by Andrew being stripped of his titles last night.

    Not likely to be much coverage in Britain's biggest selling tabloid either as the party was for a No 10 aide going to be deputy editor of the Sun it has emerged. Boris not even present but at Chequers.

    Poor Dom!
    Pretending this hurts anyone but Johnson is optimistic bordering on the delusional. On BBC’s “most read” stories it’s still number 2 after the newly breaking Djokovic story.
    So now not even No 1 story, if this was the bombshell Cummings still had he would have wanted it No 1 story on every media outlet.

    Totally backfired for Cummings now and great relief for Boris who wins the media cycle today not Dom, helped too by his friend Scott Morrison's government revoking Djokovic's visa this morning
    Boris "wins the media cycle today"???

    You're like the engineer on the Titanic screaming at his drowning engineers to keep the breakers in.
    The engineer on the Titanic is waiting until the opinion polls say the hull is sitting firmly on the sea floor. ‘Real Engineers’ consider the floor tilting and the icy water rushing in as being no cause for concern. And anyway, the drowning engineers are only Jocks. Entirely dispensable.
    I don't think HYUFD is a racist. That is a very unpleasant slur which should be beneath you, but then you are a nationalist.
  • MaxPB said:

    UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.

    Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.

    I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.

    Worse worse our major trading market is more expensive and difficult to trade with than it was. So even if we do recover our trading nous we've made it so much more difficult for ourselves.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    "I STILL THINK JOHNSON WILL SURVIVE"

    He may. But the question is: what good does his survival do for the country, or the Conservative Party?

    He had two main policy areas: Brexit and the levelling up agenda. The first of those had been achieved, and the second seems to be going poorly. Covid has swamped him, and defined his premiership.

    *If* he survives, he will be wounded, with much of his power within and without the party lessened. What does he hope to achieve with his majority after the Covid crisis is over? What's his vision?

    We need someone else, someone with a positive vision for the country (not multi-thousand word WORN essays).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Exclusive:

    Sue Gray's inquiry not expected to find evidence of criminality over No 10 parties

    But she is considering censuring PM for his lack of judgement

    She will castigate No 10 drinking culture

    Aides & officials will face disciplinary proceedings


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/downing-street-lockdown-parties-were-not-criminal-gray-inquiry-to-say-kg6jtcnkj
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.

    Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.

    From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
    There's always Andrea Leadsom.

    Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
    Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.

    Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.

    It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.

    Hunt is also now less tainted by links to Cummings than Sunak. He is also more heavyweight and serious than Truss.

    However Hunt also wants more Covid restrictions than Boris does, which could split the Tory base
    Covid restrictions are now the same as Boris.

    Finished.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    After shutting out Poles and other nasty foreigners, I wonder how Farage and other xenophobes are going to react to the India visa plan.

    The leave campaign was controlled migration not zero migration.

    Indeed Farage himself said he’d rather see skilled people from commonwealth nations come here than unskilled people from the EU.
    You obviously slept through it. The LEAVE campaign was the most overtly racist we've seen in this country since the Smethwick byelection. When history comes to analyse the posters and broadcasts politics students will have some fascinating new material to pore over
    The “racist” campaign that sought to treat people wanting to immigrate to the UK equally according to their merits, rather than allow unlimited numbers of mostly white Europeans, at the expense of people from predominately black and Asian countries?
    Don't you get it? People were scared stiff about being swamped by all those black Romanians. That's why 17 million voted leave.
    Well done for keeping up.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive:

    Sue Gray's inquiry not expected to find evidence of criminality over No 10 parties

    But she is considering censuring PM for his lack of judgement

    She will castigate No 10 drinking culture

    Aides & officials will face disciplinary proceedings


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/downing-street-lockdown-parties-were-not-criminal-gray-inquiry-to-say-kg6jtcnkj

    limping limping on....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, I think future PM contenders holding fire are miscalculating.

    Yes, this isn't an optimal time to take over. But the damage incurred during any interim to a potential future challenge is worse than axing Johnson quickly and stopping the rot.

    From what I can see neither Truss, Sunak nor Hunt are strong enough to challenge.
    There's always Andrea Leadsom.

    Though Boris Johnson is scarcely vulnerable to attack on the basis of his childlessness.
    Hunt is the only candidate who has plausibility in all the relevant fields: He would be the 'reset' candidate, obviously untainted by recent events; he has ministerial experience; he is centrist and would garner support from the centre; he is different in character from Boris; he is a reasonable match for SKS.

    Despite all that he is an obvious risk. The question is who has the best chance of being the person to win next time. No-one is in a brilliant position and so it is not obvious that Hunt's position is worse than anyone else.

    It isn't plausible that current ministers can avoid permanent association with the present regime, whose image cannot be rescued.

    Hunt is also now less tainted by links to Cummings than Sunak. He is also more heavyweight and serious than Truss.

    However Hunt also wants more Covid restrictions than Boris does, which could split the Tory base
    In which case the analogy is still 1994-7. An obviously fatally wounded PM limping on. Partly for lack of agreement on the alternative, but also because the gig looks impossible. Once defeat is baked in, it's tempting to wait and take over post-defeat. Something similar happened to Labour in late 2016/early 2017.

    It feels too early to be thinking like that, but who knows? At some point, the Conservatives might slip into "make out like bandits until the election, for then we die." One Telegraph hack called Boris described the run-up to 1997 as "beery, demented futility". That may be the template.
    Indeed, the analogy is also not only Boris facing a dithering Sunak and Major facing a dithering Portillo in 1995 as you say but also Brown facing a dithering David Miliband pre 2010 too.

    In the end of course neither Portillo or Milliband were able to bring down the PM in power to take the crown and ended up even losing the leadership in opposition to IDS and Ed Miliband respectively
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    He had two main policy areas: Brexit and the levelling up agenda. The first of those had been achieved

    Nope

    Indeed, one of Johnson’s problems is that the most ardent Brexiteers in the parliamentary party are not particularly enamoured of his leadership. Many of them have fallen out with him over lockdown or tax rises. They applauded the resignation of his Brexit minister, Lord Frost, in protest at the “political direction” of the government. They are frustrated that the government isn’t doing more with its hard-won Brexit freedoms. “There’s no way of telling people why we did Brexit because we are not doing anything,” complains a former cabinet minister who was a key figure in Johnson’s leadership campaign.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-mps-are-waiting-until-voters-boos-are-deafening-p58stz0d2
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    MaxPB said:

    UK economy officially back where it was in Feb 2020. Now comes the hard part or recovering lost potential.

    Right now I don't see it, working people have got two whopping tax rises coming (NI and fiscal drag, especially on the basic rate threshold) and a 40% rise in energy bills. That will wipe out any above inflation pay rises people may have been awarded this year.

    I'm generally optimistic about the UK economy as there's simply a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of GDP, right now I think tax rises and cost of living increases will mean 2022, 2023 and 2024 are all written off as people can't afford to splash out. Worse, our major export markets are also all going to have the same issues, 7% inflation in the US, 6% in the EU.

    Re the part I have italicised:

    You are right of course. That's why the tax rises should have been focused on the highest earners and the asset rich. Taking money from the poor (see also the refusal to extend the UC uplift) takes it straight out of the economy. Taking it from the wealthiest would have minimal negative effect on the economy over the next few years.

    Even if one is philosophically against wealth redistribution, taxing those who can afford to pay extra taxes without impacting their month to month spending (those like me tbf) too much is the sensible approach at the moment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Scott_xP said:

    Politico in France have had a go at translating “marmalade-dropper” re: the latest Partygate claims - suggesting you could compare it to “choking on your croissant” https://twitter.com/TomHourigan/status/1481892825490993152/photo/1

    I understood the latter as a quite different euphemism.
    Along with 'muffin choker', which apparently has the same innocent meaning...
This discussion has been closed.