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Terrible front pages for Johnson as CON drops 28% – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    kamski said:

    Probably not, but it's interesting. There are also still countries that restrict entry for people with HIV, for example.
    My point was that medical rules at borders are an old, old thing.

    Not to mention detailed medical histories if you want to emigrate. Australia, for example....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    The You Gov poll is very poor for the Tories; but it isn't that good for Labour either. With the Tories down on 28%, Labour should really be polling in the 40s rather than a modest 38%.

    However, I understand the poll was taken before yesterday's shenanigans. I'd expect the weekend polls to knock a couple of the Tories and add a couple on to Labour - 40% to 26%? If I'm right, that would focus the thoughts of a few more Tory MPs.

    It's interesting that Lib Dems and Greens together are on 20% in that poll. It does suggest Labour aren't completely there yet. It also shows just how large the anti-Tory coalition is.

    It's possible a couple of % on the Lib Dem score is embarrassed Tories parking their vote there for now, but likely to return home come the next election. Good news for the yellows in the local elections if so, though.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Why has Charles left?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes. Charles is far from typical of the class he purports to represent, though, which was rather my point. And I would bet my house at odds on that he is not by a long chalk the poshest person posting here (not making any claim for myself, there. I wasn't even at Eton ffs).

    And there has been no breach of Chatham House rules. I have not named him on here, I have not identified him to anyone in real life as a PBer, I would not respond to a fellow PBer's request for his surname.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    Pointless anecdote: I thought I'd backed Rishi Sunak to be next Prime Minister but on checking, I'm actually on Liz Truss. Not sure how that happened but I am now persuaded we need another woman in Number 10 and another boost to my ailing bank balance.

    I still think Mark Harper is underpriced. He has managed his positioning over partygate very astutely, is an anti-lockdowner with support from the right wing, but not a swivel-eyed ERGer.

    If I were betting significant amounts based on value (which I'm not) I would be on Harper and Javid.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471
    IshmaelZ said:

    On Sunak: have you seen Don't Look Now? I don't see any evidence of cowardice. Going to Cornwall yesterday was a ballsy decision.
    I think I'm being slow but Don't Look Now was one of my favourite English films of the time so I'd like to understand your post. Is it that he's a midget (are you allowed to use that word?) or that he stabs someone in the back?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    TOPPING said:

    Very interesting discussion at 08:57 on R4 Today about just this - one side saying Broadcasting House of all places (after Savile, etc) shouldn't be showcasing child abusers. The other side was it's art slippery slope.
    Another issue with Gill is whether his proclivities are evident in his art - some people have professed to see unpleasant things there. Though it may well be people seeing what they think they see.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MrEd said:

    Why has Charles left?
    Because I told him to stop banging on about Who He Is.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    TimS said:

    It's interesting that Lib Dems and Greens together are on 20% in that poll. It does suggest Labour aren't completely there yet. It also shows just how large the anti-Tory coalition is.

    It's possible a couple of % on the Lib Dem score is embarrassed Tories parking their vote there for now, but likely to return home come the next election. Good news for the yellows in the local elections if so, though.
    Hard to see how Labour breaks through 40% though. Nothing that SKS has done is really going to take back ex-voters bar those who didn't vote Labour because "he's not Corbyn".

    Pure anecdote - went off for coffee this morning with a left of centre mate who will never vote Tory but who fits the North London Labour profile (Remain, professional, anti-Tory etc). Says he doesn't know what Keir or Labour stands for. I would imagine that type of voter is open to a well crafted LD / Green message (I suspect more the latter - LDs are a bit passe
  • The other issue facing HMG is the cost of living crisis and I listened to a report on BBC business yesterday about the worldwide energy price hikes

    Apparently, it has many factors including last year wind generation was poor due to an exceptionally wind free summer, the loss of coal, including the recent flooding of some of China’s coal mines, and the haste to move to green energy which has provided a vacuum that gas is now filling and is the transition fuel.

    The demand worldwide far outstrips the supply and above all else Russia is holding Europe and the west to ransom over its abundance of gas, which has made things very much worse

    Merkel also stopped all nuclear power stations following Fukushima creating a German energy crisis

    The analyst said the idea this is short term is not born out by the facts and expects high energy prices for the next two years at least

    I would suggest the world is seeing the results of too much haste to move to green and insufficient planning for transitional energy which is highlighted by the controversy over Cambo oil field in Scotland
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited January 2022

    Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.

    I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
    Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.

    If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,158

    Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.

    I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
    JRM is panicking and desperately scrambling to save Boris as he’s going to be suffering major WDS* if Sunak becomes next PM - JRM’s head will explode after turning around on its axis like the freaky ventriloquist dummy that he is.

    *Wykehamist Derangement Syndrome - he seems to have a bit of an issue…!!

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/article/watch-jacob-rees-mogg-lays-into-nick-boles/amp
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Roger said:

    I think I'm being slow but Don't Look Now was one of my favourite English films of the time so I'd like to understand your post. Is it that he's a midget (are you allowed to use that word?) or that he stabs someone in the back?
    That midgets can be effective murderers. The reveal if that's the word where you see him for the first time rather than the child's raincoat he is wearing is the best bit of cinema ever.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    The other issue facing HMG is the cost of living crisis and I listened to a report on BBC business yesterday about the worldwide energy price hikes

    Apparently, it has many factors including last year wind generation was poor due to an exceptionally wind free summer, the loss of coal, including the recent flooding of some of China’s coal mines, and the haste to move to green energy which has provided a vacuum that gas is now filling and is the transition fuel.

    The demand worldwide far outstrips the supply and above all else Russia is holding Europe and the west to ransom over its abundance of gas, which has made things very much worse

    Merkel also stopped all nuclear power stations following Fukushima creating a German energy crisis

    The analyst said the idea this is short term is not born out by the facts and expects high energy prices for the next two years at least

    I would suggest the world is seeing the results of too much haste to move to green and insufficient planning for transitional energy which is highlighted by the controversy over Cambo oil field in Scotland

    Yes. Another one of BJ's mistakes - I suspect Carrie had a bit to do with that one in pushing the Green agenda.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    edited January 2022
    TimS said:

    It's interesting that Lib Dems and Greens together are on 20% in that poll. It does suggest Labour aren't completely there yet. It also shows just how large the anti-Tory coalition is.

    It's possible a couple of % on the Lib Dem score is embarrassed Tories parking their vote there for now, but likely to return home come the next election. Good news for the yellows in the local elections if so, though.
    And aren't the the Sundays the traditional source of Tory MPs' "long dark afternoons of the soul"?
  • HYUFD said:

    Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.

    If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
    They don't consider it a Tory majority. But it is not "nothing to save".

    Please do keep digging the pit deeper. Its astonishing to watch.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    IshmaelZ said:

    He is a burst balloon. A busted flush. Beria in the final 10 minutes of Death of Stalin. There is no coming back from this. Sunak will be PM at the conference.
    Bet? To HSBS or Injured jockeys?
  • It depends on which rules.

    People have been saying for years that Boris was sacked by the Spectator for lying.

    But nobody outside the bubble cares about that.

    When its rules imposed on the proles then the proles do care.
    I obviously don't disagree that more people care now than they did before, self evident from the polling. My point was that no interest in remedying the things that cause Boris problems, is actually an integral design feature of the Boris character. A Boris who cares about doing the right thing, could not be the carefree popular different Boris.
  • MrEd said:

    Why has Charles left?
    See Charles' own comment early in this thread.

    On a related matter, I do not know if there is a simple administrative step that might discourage these running tiffs that spoil some threads and eventually drive good people away. Would a limit on posting frequency help, or just encourage sock puppets? Maybe even a five minute time-out would allow for reflection. And a ban on threats of doxxing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    boulay said:

    JRM is panicking and desperately scrambling to save Boris as he’s going to be suffering major WDS* if Sunak becomes next PM - JRM’s head will explode after turning around on its axis like the freaky ventriloquist dummy that he is.

    *Wykehamist Derangement Syndrome - he seems to have a bit of an issue…!!

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/article/watch-jacob-rees-mogg-lays-into-nick-boles/amp
    Ooh, I hadn't seen that:

    'My honourable friend makes a characteristically Wykehamist point: highly intelligent but fundamentally wrong.
    ' [...] And I must confess I've sometimes thought my right honourable friend for West Dorset [Oliver Letwin] was more a Wykehamist than of my own school'
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,985
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Because I told him to stop banging on about Who He Is.
    Wasn't that rather his raison d'être?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The JRM treatment of Ross et al is a fairly logical thing given the Cons morphing towards english nationalistism over the last decade. Arguably the SNPs greatest achievement.

    I’d argue with that. But I do get your point.

    The English Tories should just be done with it and fess up to their newfound love for English self-government.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    HYUFD said:

    Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.

    If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
    I may be misremembering, but aren't most Scottish councils elected under STV and therefore NOC is pretty much baked in?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.

    If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
    On that logic, the Conservative Party hasn'tr been in control of the UK for most of the 2010s.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    There's also the fact that he created and imposed those rules on the proles before breaking them. That adds insult to injury.

    There's a cliche that lawmakers can't be lawbreakers (I used that line myself) but it's not always true. If someone is opposed to the law they're breaking and the people are ok to elect them then that's okay in my eyes.

    Eg if while homosexuality was illegal the public chose to elect an openly gay politician who wanted it legalised then that'd be fair enough.

    It's the hypocrisy of passing a law on us, then breaking it, that is impossible to stomach.
    I completely agree with this and I don't understand why any Conservative supporter would be comfortable with the precedent set by a Government imposing laws that it doesn't intend to obey. Legitimising a future left-wing PM e.g. imposing punitive rules for the rich whilst allowing the party elite to disregard them isn't a great place to go.

    If the rules were justified, breaking them shows either that the lawmaker was too stupid to understand their purposes, or didn't care about the harm that could be caused by lawbreaking. If they weren't justified it's even less forgivable because the implication is that the lawmaker was happy imposing an unjustified law because they knew that they could ignore it while using the power of the state to force others to obey it.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    HYUFD said:

    Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.

    If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
    Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,158
    Carnyx said:

    Ooh, I hadn't seen that:

    'My honourable friend makes a characteristically Wykehamist point: highly intelligent but fundamentally wrong.
    ' [...] And I must confess I've sometimes thought my right honourable friend for West Dorset [Oliver Letwin] was more a Wykehamist than of my own school'
    It’s a toughy, you can be “wrong” like Boles and Letwin or “right” like JRM and Boris….!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    Bet? To HSBS or Injured jockeys?
    OK £25, evens, winner gets to choose from those 2

    And that's sporting given I can get better odds without the date limit
  • TimS said:

    I still think Mark Harper is underpriced. He has managed his positioning over partygate very astutely, is an anti-lockdowner with support from the right wing, but not a swivel-eyed ERGer.

    If I were betting significant amounts based on value (which I'm not) I would be on Harper and Javid.
    Harper if the Conservatives were in opposition but since they are in government, they are choosing a new Prime Minister who must hit the ground running. This probably restricts them to a handful of senior Cabinet ministers. Harper has never run a department, having gone from junior ministerial roles to Chief Whip.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471
    FLOTUK?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    TimS said:

    It's interesting that Lib Dems and Greens together are on 20% in that poll. It does suggest Labour aren't completely there yet. It also shows just how large the anti-Tory coalition is.

    It's possible a couple of % on the Lib Dem score is embarrassed Tories parking their vote there for now, but likely to return home come the next election. Good news for the yellows in the local elections if so, though.
    There's some of that, but it's also an effect of the reduced pool of people giving a voting intention.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    MrEd said:

    Yes. Another one of BJ's mistakes - I suspect Carrie had a bit to do with that one in pushing the Green agenda.
    BJ has been a full signed up member of the Green grouping in the Conservative Party for a long. long time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Cookie said:

    I may be misremembering, but aren't most Scottish councils elected under STV and therefore NOC is pretty much baked in?
    It is, but there is a further complication in that, to get more seats, especially in the more rural areas, quite a few Tories pretend to be "Independent" candidates. There's a regular interchange of people between the Official and Unofficial SCUP. We saw this a few weeks back when trying to make sense of the Lochaber (?) by election, and in fact Mr Kille's predecessor is a nice example

    https://www.grampianonline.co.uk/news/change-at-the-top-as-aberdeenshire-council-leader-leaves-conservatives-201538/
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    Cookie said:

    From yesterday's thread:

    I've just Googled 'Great Barrington Declaration' and you're right, it gives you a link to where you would expect.

    But at the time, if you googled it, you got a link to a site explaining why it was wrong/discredited etc.

    If you wanted to find the site itself, you had to find another search engine (duckduckgo, for example). Google refused to link to it.
    I'm not sure how long that lasted for.
    Looking into this more (not because I disbelieve you, but trying to get some information on how long/why):

    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration includes a reference to google censorship being mentioned in the commons, but without further detail
    - Tobes talking about it here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-cant-we-talk-about-the-great-barrington-declaration
    - Spiked has this, suggesting censorship https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/10/12/why-has-google-censored-the-great-barrington-declaration/
    - Gizmodo maintains there was no censorship https://gizmodo.com/conservatives-pull-google-into-their-plan-to-let-people-1845371054

    So, interesting overall. It seems that GBD was not the top link for a while, but perhaps more algorithmic than intentional from Google? I can imagine some high rank sites linking to GBD critical statements but not GBD, which might have skewed the results? Who knows, lots of links to GBD from sites Google ranks as spammy/misinformed might also have affected its rank?

    I'm more bothered about Google than other sources here as Google should be an impartial (or at least, not intentionally biased) way to find information. Facebook I never saw as an impartial provider of information, but I don't have any experience of Facebook over the past ten years or so, so that may be out of date.

    My conclusion is that:
    1. GBD was not the top hit, for a while, for searching GBD - which is, on the face of it, troubling
    2. This may have been due to the way ranking algorithms work - or fail to work - rather than intentional policy
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    TOPPING said:

    Read what I wrote - the application of this to the entire world is an expansion from the eg yellow fever vaccine requirement in a handful of countries.
    Every country has the right to specify entry requirements - within international treaties. It's particularly funny in Australia's case, because they're possibly stricter about *what* you bring in than *who* comes in - including common foodstuffs and, (as Amber Heard discovered) animals - and I don't mean Johnny Depp.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333
    MrEd said:

    Why has Charles left?
    Sand in the vagina after Ishmael took the piss out of him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
    In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.

    They do not dictate who leads the UK party
  • Roger said:

    FLOTUK?

    Carrie. First Lady of the UK. Of course, if that were an actual job, hers would be a legitimate presence at Downing Street work events, as well as boosting the Johnson family bank balance.
  • MrEd said:

    Yes. Another one of BJ's mistakes - I suspect Carrie had a bit to do with that one in pushing the Green agenda.
    I don't get this criticism. The price of fossil fuel based energy has shot up, so therefore the Green agenda is bad? How do you figure that one out?

    If we needed more coal and more gas then our energy would be more expensive now, not less.

    Sustainable, clean, cheap green energy means that we don't need to pay an arm and a leg to the Putins and Sheiks of the world.

    If anything, the lack of investment in tidal is looking rather foolhardy, not the push for Green energy and fuel efficiency.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Cookie said:

    I may be misremembering, but aren't most Scottish councils elected under STV and therefore NOC is pretty much baked in?
    Yepp. All Single Transferable Vote
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited January 2022

    Now I am thinking of Brian Blessed pronouncing these words, as only he could


    EXETER - Tennis balls, my liege.
    Have you ever heard Brian Blessed commentating on snooker?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP11L9jRW94
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    Yes, same here. But I think my comment still stands.
    It does, although as observed above, that Labour is still on the floor in Scotland is a drag on the UK average. When entering polls into Baxter and the rest it would be more sensible to do so separately by country.

    Also, for the Tories' prospects to be the worst, the LibDems need to recover in the south, as the preferred destination for discontented Tories in such seats - and the poll hints that some of that may be happening.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    Charles said:

    As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.

    While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.

    That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.

    So it’s time for me to say goodbye.

    Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.

    😧 😢
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    The most that the current farrago will do is cement Labour’s poll lead for at least the time being. Johnson isn’t going anywhere. Much as I would like it to be otherwise the modern Conservative Party doesn’t defenestrate male prime ministers.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.

    They do not dictate who leads the UK party
    You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    They don't consider it a Tory majority. But it is not "nothing to save".

    Please do keep digging the pit deeper. Its astonishing to watch.
    I live in hope of him getting to the Mohorovičić discontinuity. It would be a great scientific achievement.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    We're all middle class, now
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022

    No, they don't dictate it. But for the "Minister for the Union" to have lost practically all support from the parliamentary party at Holyrood, plus the Scottish Leader, is very damaging indeed. Boris is a liability when it comes to protecting the union which for most Tories is a pretty existential matter - or should be.
    Doesn't matter for HYUFD. He just says no. Edit: which is at least logical in his own terms. If not very sensible in real politics.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    I would suggest the world is seeing the results of too much haste to move to green and insufficient planning for transitional energy which is highlighted by the controversy over Cambo oil field in Scotland

    This is precisely the wrong conclusion.

    Consider the alternative scenarios. Suppose we had moved to renewables more slowly and were burning more coal and gas now. Would that be better? Coal prices are also up now, we would be having even higher prices for gas and electricity.

    However, if we'd moved to renewables more quickly, we'd need to be burning less gas and so our electricity prices would be lower.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    boulay said:

    I don’t know about that, it took me ages to realise Roger was also posting as MoonRabbit!!
    Is this true @MoonRabbit ?
  • There's also the fact that he created and imposed those rules on the proles before breaking them. That adds insult to injury.

    There's a cliche that lawmakers can't be lawbreakers (I used that line myself) but it's not always true. If someone is opposed to the law they're breaking and the people are ok to elect them then that's okay in my eyes.

    Eg if while homosexuality was illegal the public chose to elect an openly gay politician who wanted it legalised then that'd be fair enough.

    It's the hypocrisy of passing a law on us, then breaking it, that is impossible to stomach.
    I used the line yesterday that those who make the laws should not break the laws. I think, agreeing with what you have just written, I would clarify that. If you have voted against a law and feel it to be so fundamentally pernicious and wrong that you cannot support it then I think, as in your homosexuality case, then you can justify breaking it. But in the Johnson case no such justification can exist. He not only voted for these laws, he formulated and promoted them. In such a situation to then break them makes his position utterly untenable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kamski said:

    Probably not, but it's interesting. There are also still countries that restrict entry for people with HIV, for example.
    Indeed. I have to do an HIV test every couple of years for my visa, as do foreigners in a number of Asian countries. Even though there are now widely available treatments, many places don’t want people with infectious diseases living in their country.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    No, they don't dictate it. But for the "Minister for the Union" to have lost practically all support from the parliamentary party at Holyrood, plus the Scottish Leader, is very damaging indeed. Boris is a liability when it comes to protecting the union which for most Tories is a pretty existential matter - or should be.
    It used to be an existential matter for Conservatives. Pretty obvious that for a significant minority (?) of Tories that that is no longer the case. For most it seems to be No Biggie.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    Harper if the Conservatives were in opposition but since they are in government, they are choosing a new Prime Minister who must hit the ground running. This probably restricts them to a handful of senior Cabinet ministers. Harper has never run a department, having gone from junior ministerial roles to Chief Whip.
    In normal times maybe, but I think they have been drifting away from that, like our friends across the Atlantic. Boris had only been FS for a few months but that was never going to stand in the way. The trouble with those in ministerial posts now is that they are tarred by their loyalty to Johnson. None have been sufficiently disloyal. The one who gets closest is Sajid Javid because he previously walked out in a spat with Cummings and is only recently back.

    There are few ex cabinet ministers available with sufficient support either, barring Hunt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    No, they don't dictate it. But for the "Minister for the Union" to have lost practically all support from the parliamentary party at Holyrood, plus the Scottish Leader, is very damaging indeed. Boris is a liability when it comes to protecting the union which for most Tories is a pretty existential matter - or should be.
    No he isn't, Boris will continue to refuse indyref2 for a generation which is the best way of protecting the Union.

    It is Starmer who would allow indyref2 if he became PM reliant on the SNP, which could go either way even with his devomax plans which is more risky for the Union
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    Why has Charles left?
    Charles is always happy to mention his family and friends (especially if they are or were CEOs of multinational pharma companies). He took exception to someone taking such PB "banter" (which he sees as subject to Chatham House rules) and bringing it into the real world.

    I had an incident with him some time ago. He happily uses his own identity on here and talks about his work. I mentioned his employer and he asked me not to. Edit: I was happy to comply as it was only good manners to do so.

    As I said it's a bit run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. His view is that he brings that information to PB but we must treat it confidentially on PB or outside. So he could say, for example, my family's trust is having an exhibition of Byzantine Phallic Imagery but would not want anyone from PB to say on PB well isn't that Bob's exhibition, I know him well can't wait to speak to him; or to go to the exhibition and say, oh yes Charles told me about this on PB.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,635
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sand in the vagina after Ishmael took the piss out of him.
    Being a grade "A" C U next Tuesday to someone is hardly taking the piss.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    IshmaelZ said:

    OK £25, evens, winner gets to choose from those 2

    And that's sporting given I can get better odds without the date limit
    Done. Sunak PM at conference otherwise I win.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    No he isn't, Boris will continue to refuse indyref2 for a generation which is the best way of protecting the Union.

    It is Starmer who would allow indyref2 if he became PM reliant on the SNP, which could go either way even with his devomax plans which is more risky for the Union
    So Mr [edit] R-M - and [edit] Mr Gove as well - can be complete bastards to the SCUP MPs and MSPs and they have to suck it up like good little minions?
  • Charles' identity is probably well known on here - though he rarely refers to it. I think it's more that he didn't want people he knew identified. Which is fair enough.

    I'm anonymous on here, though it'd be trivial for someone to work out who I am if they were sad enough to do so (I am no-one of any importance). If someone identified Mrs J I'd be a bit concerned and furious.
    There are very very few people whose identity is actually identifiable on here and for good reasons. I think that occasional posters - Charles being one of them - lets slip enough information to work out who they are but most don't.

    The problem with the tinterweb is its easy to get het up and start slinging mud at the other anonymous posters - been there, done that, withdrawn and apologised. The danger with being an actual identifiable person is that its possible to slip over the legal boundary or as has been seen on things like Twitter slipping over the physical boundary for nutters.

    When both Mrs RP and myself were councillors one of the hard things was being known with a published address. Having to call the police because you're being threatened outside your own home by a nutter is Not Fun.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235

    Have you ever heard Brian Blessed commentating on snooker?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP11L9jRW94
    Thank you for that.

    For those that haven't seen it, this is how you should send threatening messages. To be delivered by Brian Blessed in full plate...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKHihAPr2Rc&t=45s
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    No he isn't, Boris will continue to refuse indyref2 for a generation which is the best way of protecting the Union.

    It is Starmer who would allow indyref2 if he became PM reliant on the SNP, which could go either way even with his devomax plans which is more risky for the Union
    Boris to be in office for a generation?

    What odds are you offering?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
    Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.

    So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
  • They don't consider it a Tory majority. But it is not "nothing to save".

    Please do keep digging the pit deeper. Its astonishing to watch.
    It is very disturbing to watch

    I would say I know conservative mps are very much in discussions with each other and as I said I would not rule out Boris going within days of Sue Gray's report
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980

    BJ has been a full signed up member of the Green grouping in the Conservative Party for a long. long time.
    Although I think BJ has to go, the one thing I would regret is losing a PM who genuinely seems to get the importance of Green issues. Not sure any of his potential successors do - and certainly not Truss. One of the good things about Boris is his expansive hinterland. Curiously, we may miss him when he goes and the fuss over parties etc recedes.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.

    So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
    ‘How To Make Friends And Influence People’, by parish councillor HY (PC). The latest airport blockbuster.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    Selebian said:

    Looking into this more (not because I disbelieve you, but trying to get some information on how long/why):

    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration includes a reference to google censorship being mentioned in the commons, but without further detail
    - Tobes talking about it here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-cant-we-talk-about-the-great-barrington-declaration
    - Spiked has this, suggesting censorship https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/10/12/why-has-google-censored-the-great-barrington-declaration/
    - Gizmodo maintains there was no censorship https://gizmodo.com/conservatives-pull-google-into-their-plan-to-let-people-1845371054

    So, interesting overall. It seems that GBD was not the top link for a while, but perhaps more algorithmic than intentional from Google? I can imagine some high rank sites linking to GBD critical statements but not GBD, which might have skewed the results? Who knows, lots of links to GBD from sites Google ranks as spammy/misinformed might also have affected its rank?

    I'm more bothered about Google than other sources here as Google should be an impartial (or at least, not intentionally biased) way to find information. Facebook I never saw as an impartial provider of information, but I don't have any experience of Facebook over the past ten years or so, so that may be out of date.

    My conclusion is that:
    1. GBD was not the top hit, for a while, for searching GBD - which is, on the face of it, troubling
    2. This may have been due to the way ranking algorithms work - or fail to work - rather than intentional policy
    Selebian said:

    Looking into this more (not because I disbelieve you, but trying to get some information on how long/why):

    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration includes a reference to google censorship being mentioned in the commons, but without further detail
    - Tobes talking about it here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-cant-we-talk-about-the-great-barrington-declaration
    - Spiked has this, suggesting censorship https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/10/12/why-has-google-censored-the-great-barrington-declaration/
    - Gizmodo maintains there was no censorship https://gizmodo.com/conservatives-pull-google-into-their-plan-to-let-people-1845371054

    So, interesting overall. It seems that GBD was not the top link for a while, but perhaps more algorithmic than intentional from Google? I can imagine some high rank sites linking to GBD critical statements but not GBD, which might have skewed the results? Who knows, lots of links to GBD from sites Google ranks as spammy/misinformed might also have affected its rank?

    I'm more bothered about Google than other sources here as Google should be an impartial (or at least, not intentionally biased) way to find information. Facebook I never saw as an impartial provider of information, but I don't have any experience of Facebook over the past ten years or so, so that may be out of date.

    My conclusion is that:
    1. GBD was not the top hit, for a while, for searching GBD - which is, on the face of it, troubling
    2. This may have been due to the way ranking algorithms work - or fail to work - rather than intentional policy
    Well I thought it a deliberate decision - but then last night, I confess, out of curiousity about the identity of the rugby player arrested in Manchester, I googled the name of the individual I guessed it might be, and the first few links which came up were 'Sale player arrested' - none of which identified the player by name (although one South African site had a big picture of him with a caption that they couldn't name him). Only when you got on to page 2 or 3 of results did you get to a normal page of detail about him.
    And I can't imagine that this is down to a deliberate decision by Google - it must be down to the algorithms.
    So what you suggest may well be true.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    It is very disturbing to watch

    I would say I know conservative mps are very much in discussions with each other and as I said I would not rule out Boris going within days of Sue Gray's report
    He won't, even if there was a VONC I think Boris wins it about 55 45 and is safe for a year.

    Remember even Thatcher got 55% of Tory MPs to back her in 1990 and under current rules there would have been no second ballot so she could have stayed PM.

    Even May got over 60% of Tory MPs to back her in the 2018 VONC too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Boris to be in office for a generation?

    What odds are you offering?
    An SNP generation is about three years, there’s a good chance he’ll make it that far…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Although I think BJ has to go, the one thing I would regret is losing a PM who genuinely seems to get the importance of Green issues. Not sure any of his potential successors do - and certainly not Truss. One of the good things about Boris is his expansive hinterland. Curiously, we may miss him when he goes and the fuss over parties etc recedes.
    That's an interesting point. Trouble is that interest alone is insufficient; he isn't doing a very good job of actually writing the essay - and the tutorial can't be postponed.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    HYUFD said:

    Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.

    So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
    They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    HYUFD said:

    Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.

    So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
    Ruth absolutely saved May's bacon in 2017 and, if you're so inclined, the country from Jeremy Corbyn. Without a (relatively) strong showing from Scotland, the numbers for CandS with DUP wouldn't have been there.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    An article in the Telegraph this morning about how Boris may become the shortest-serving British Prime Minister since Campbell Bannerman. 'What about Alec Douglas Home?', I thought - and looked him up to check his details. I was startled to discover that ADH played first class cricket for Middlesex. Amazing what can pass you by about people.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    Roger said:

    FLOTUK?

    Her indoors
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
    And, one might add, effectively forced out by Johnsonist Brexitism. Or maybe Brexity Johnsonism. Which is down to ...
  • DougSeal said:

    The most that the current farrago will do is cement Labour’s poll lead for at least the time being. Johnson isn’t going anywhere. Much as I would like it to be otherwise the modern Conservative Party doesn’t defenestrate male prime ministers.

    That is not the information I am receiving from within the party
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644
    edited January 2022
    Polruan said:

    I completely agree with this and I don't understand why any Conservative supporter would be comfortable with the precedent set by a Government imposing laws that it doesn't intend to obey. Legitimising a future left-wing PM e.g. imposing punitive rules for the rich whilst allowing the party elite to disregard them isn't a great place to go.

    If the rules were justified, breaking them shows either that the lawmaker was too stupid to understand their purposes, or didn't care about the harm that could be caused by lawbreaking. If they weren't justified it's even less forgivable because the implication is that the lawmaker was happy imposing an unjustified law because they knew that they could ignore it while using the power of the state to force others to obey it.
    The obvious explanation is probably the correct one. They saw themselves as a special case, above the law, which was vague in certain areas so they could pass off as work activity what was fundamentally a social gathering.

    It's less easy to identify where the blame lies. The civil servant who sent the email cannot escape censure but it is common for senior officials to act on behalf their (Prime) Minister in this way and if it was thought necessary to run this past the (P)M then it would have been done informally so that the official could take any incoming flak.

    None of this is surprising. What is astonishing is that they thought they would get away with it. Where was the Press? Were none of them invited? Did none of them hear about it? I suspect the story was well know amongst journalists but nobody wanted to go public until Dominic started to stir it. They couldn't ignore it then.

    So yes, the PM has questions to answer, his officials likewise, but who is questioning the Press? Seems to me it is also complicit.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    That is not the information I am receiving from within the party
    Put it this way, I will believe it when it happens - until then Boris is safe and Labour will be reaping the benefit of Boris being in place.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    HYUFD said:

    He won't, even if there was a VONC I think Boris wins it about 55 45 and is safe for a year.

    Remember even Thatcher got 55% of Tory MPs to back her in 1990 and under current rules there would have been no second ballot so she could have stayed PM.

    Even May got over 60% of Tory MPs to back her in the 2018 VONC too.
    Johnson winning a VONC does not mean he is safe for a year. The 1922 Committee can change the rules anytime they want and take away that protection.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    eek said:

    Yep - but it allows him to avoid a pooled TV interview - and he can hide inside No 10.
    On the downside he misses out on the only part of the job that seems to engage him - photo ops.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    edited January 2022

    This is precisely the wrong conclusion.

    Consider the alternative scenarios. Suppose we had moved to renewables more slowly and were burning more coal and gas now. Would that be better? Coal prices are also up now, we would be having even higher prices for gas and electricity.

    However, if we'd moved to renewables more quickly, we'd need to be burning less gas and so our electricity prices would be lower.
    The point the analyst was making is that the transition did not take into account a sensible period to complete it and as a result, for the reasons he stated, gas is the transition energy and the demand for the foreseeable future is going to cause serious costs of loving crisis for government's worldwide

    It may be of interest but I am looking out on 'Gwynt y Mor' wind farm and there is not a breath of wind and the turbines are barely turning
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    TOPPING said:

    Charles is always happy to mention his family and friends (especially if they are or were CEOs of multinational pharma companies). He took exception to someone taking such PB "banter" (which he sees as subject to Chatham House rules) and bringing it into the real world.

    I had an incident with him some time ago. He happily uses his own identity on here and talks about his work. I mentioned his employer and he asked me not to. Edit: I was happy to comply as it was only good manners to do so.

    As I said it's a bit run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. His view is that he brings that information to PB but we must treat it confidentially on PB or outside. So he could say, for example, my family's trust is having an exhibition of Byzantine Phallic Imagery but would not want anyone from PB to say on PB well isn't that Bob's exhibition, I know him well can't wait to speak to him; or to go to the exhibition and say, oh yes Charles told me about this on PB.
    It does seem to me that people who wish to be anonymous - which is fair enough - should avoid posting lots of identifiable stuff about their private lives up here. That's just common sense, as well as avoiding trying to have it both ways.

    What is really taking the **** is when those who wish to be anonymous post a load of made up stuff about themselves and then get the hump when anyone calls it out. Thankfully Charles didn't sink to that.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    OT Ohio Supreme Court threw out the GOP gerrymander. This is one of the possible outcomes discussed here:
    https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/12/22/redistricting-is-going-surprisingly-well-for-democrats
    Holding all other assumptions constant, if the Ohio map is remade 10-5 by the state Supreme Court and the North Carolina map changed to 8-6, the map would be 217-217-1.
    So increasingly it looks like the Democrats will lose The House fair and square...

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    JonathanD said:

    Johnson winning a VONC does not mean he is safe for a year. The 1922 Committee can change the rules anytime they want and take away that protection.
    And is it really tenable for him to carry on after winning so narrowly?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    Although I think BJ has to go, the one thing I would regret is losing a PM who genuinely seems to get the importance of Green issues. Not sure any of his potential successors do - and certainly not Truss. One of the good things about Boris is his expansive hinterland. Curiously, we may miss him when he goes and the fuss over parties etc recedes.
    He doesn't genuinely believe any of it, though; he takes these positions because it makes him more attractive to 'the youth'. And he's probably more motivated by personal than political considerations in that respect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Carnyx said:

    So Mr [edit] R-M - and [edit] Mr Gove as well - can be complete bastards to the SCUP MPs and MSPs and they have to suck it up like good little minions?
    That's basically HYUFD's view of the whole of Scotland.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,158

    It is very disturbing to watch

    I would say I know conservative mps are very much in discussions with each other and as I said I would not rule out Boris going within days of Sue Gray's report
    I would imagine a lot of the thought processes are:

    1. If we start “living with Covid” and some sort of normality returns will Boris be able to change the narrative and be the “big picture” cheerleader of positivity and by the time of next election all the parties will be forgotten?

    Or

    2. Is this potentially the John Major “back to basics” situation again where the party is fundamentally holed by sleazy, arrogant “do as we say not as we do” image and the risk that more crap keeps seeping out - inevitable as the moral discipline and common sense is missing from the top of the party.

    I would imagine that a lot will depend on the personal impressions the contenders have made on the Tory MPs - if for example Sunak has left a large number of MPs thinking “he’s good in private and I like his vision that he can’t discuss as CotE” - things we might not see as outsiders - then they might think they have one chance to hit the refresh button and build new Tory party ahead of next GE and they need to take it.

    If the contenders don’t convince enough yet in private to other Tory MPs then they might hold off and see how things develop over this year rather than risk a failed “Cummings led coup (TM)” and ensuring another guaranteed year of Boris.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    I really don't think Nick Parker (hypothetically) would have been able to claim Chatham House Rules if he had ever made some appalling gaffe on PB. I think it would have gone to CCHQ within the hour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    HYUFD said:

    He won't, even if there was a VONC I think Boris wins it about 55 45 and is safe for a year.

    Remember even Thatcher got 55% of Tory MPs to back her in 1990 and under current rules there would have been no second ballot so she could have stayed PM.

    Even May got over 60% of Tory MPs to back her in the 2018 VONC too.
    Whatever did happen to Mrs T and Mrs M?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed. I have to do an HIV test every couple of years for my visa, as do foreigners in a number of Asian countries. Even though there are now widely available treatments, many places don’t want people with infectious diseases living in their country.
    I think it's also about the potential expense to treat it, I remember Nige got a whole load of shit about the idea of introducing the same restrictions in the UK. I think it was fair because we have a socialised healthcare system and HIV treatment costs are huge.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    TimS said:

    In normal times maybe, but I think they have been drifting away from that, like our friends across the Atlantic. Boris had only been FS for a few months but that was never going to stand in the way. The trouble with those in ministerial posts now is that they are tarred by their loyalty to Johnson. None have been sufficiently disloyal. The one who gets closest is Sajid Javid because he previously walked out in a spat with Cummings and is only recently back.

    There are few ex cabinet ministers available with sufficient support either, barring Hunt.
    Re Harper specifically, I am not sure why he is relatively high up in the betting. As far as I can tell, he hasn't got a natural base in the party or at least one where there might be a competitive candidate for that bloc.
  • HYUFD said:

    No he isn't, Boris will continue to refuse indyref2 for a generation which is the best way of protecting the Union.

    It is Starmer who would allow indyref2 if he became PM reliant on the SNP, which could go either way even with his devomax plans which is more risky for the Union
    He won't be there much longer
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Nigelb said:

    That's basically HYUFD's view of the whole of Scotland.
    Yes, but it's his regularly expressed view that only Tories count anyway. Yet he's not even counting the Scottish ones.
This discussion has been closed.