Driving away healthcare professionals is dumb generally and especially unwise during a pandemic. What's the benefit?
Well, it satiates the vengeance-filled who have it in for those who made the legal choice to remain unvaccinated. And it's superficially popular for the government, so ...
Even if Bozo survives this and leads the Tories into the next GE the stench surrounding him will once again come to the fore when the opposition hammer the point home that you can’t trust a word he says and any election promises are likely to be broken .
The best thing for Labour is he limps on to the GE , the best thing for the country however is for Bozo to depart.
To be replaced by a ‘proper’ conservative, willing to drop the ‘green crap’ and cut public spending to balance the budget? Be careful what you wish for…
Cutting public spending wont retain the red wall.
And i’m willing to bet the “green crap” is popular in the wealthy lib dem targeted blue wall.
Doesn’t sound like a winning electoral strategy.
I think it’s starting to dawn on people, that the persuit of a decarbonised economy comes at a high price. Even the wealthy South East isn’t full of people who can easily stump up another £100 a *month* in energy bills.
Exactly. Support for this will soon diminish when people start to pay the bills and it is fine for wealthy middle class posters here to say we have to do it. They can afford to pay it.
Ultimately we have got to keep using fossil fuels until we can fully transition to renewables and they can deliver 100% of our growing energy needs all year round. That will not be for a very long time either. So impoverishing further the poor is not going to help.
The problem with fossil fuels - even setting all of the environmental issues aside - is that they are not the cheap alternative they once were. Whilst there is still an awful lot of oil and gas left its increasingly harder to get at and increasingly in the control of nations who aren't entirely friendly to the west.
The UK had this golden bonanza, a vast sea of oil and gas. And largely its gone. We sold off the oil rights so that others got rich instead of the state like in Norway, and we let the private sector burn gas instead of coal for bigger profits.
As a businessman I have no problem with turning a profit but it can't be short term over the interests of the long term as we have done. We're now increasingly at the mercy of international supply and international trading prices, so the idea that we can just bin off the "expensive" green energy for "cheaper" fossil energy is for the birds.
As always we need a mix. Oil and gas absolutely. Learn how to build nuclear reactors again. And develop tidal, wind, solar and hydrogen where we can become a world leader in these fields. It will be expensive at the start hence the need for mega subsidies. But the alternative is paying mega money to Putin and Sandpit's Sheikhs.
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
what did he say... missed that?
JRM just rubbished and belittled the Scottish party and the specific Scots Tory politicians who are calling for Boris to go. JRM should have stuck to the issues; instead he made it personal. I doubt this patronising approach to his Scottish colleagues will go down well north of the border, and if the PM doesn't go soon the Scottish Tory party may have to consider setting itself up as a separate organisation.
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
I hope you reconsider, you would be much missed.
He probably needs another 3-4 people asking him to stay before the reverse flounce is on.
His Excellence prefers to travel incognito. I just find it hard to square that with the point of every single post being Who I Really Am. But naturally I apologise and urge the board to await the outcome of the Sue Grey inquiry.
All 31 Conservative & Unionist MSPs agree with their leader Douglas Ross that the prime minister should resign.
Unanimity in that group is rare, but Boris has managed to unite them. Pretty impressive for the ‘Minister for the Union’ (sic) to be greeted by a solid wall of hostility from Scottish Unionists.
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
Well I have no idea who you are. Please don't go. I've not looked back at the previous thread but whoever it was should apologise.
Meanwhile @Isam remains banned for nothing it seems to me.
Dr. Foxy, do you think people will be delighted at green levies (or whatever name they're given) driving up energy costs significantly?
We should "sit tight and assess".
Don't Look Up...
On a serious note, the depth and breadth of the consensus on climate change in this country is remarkable in one thing - that no politician has made much, if ay headway on the policies which have made energy more expensive, to create the move to zero carbon.
The sustained (and settled) policy across multiple governments must be one of the rare examples of the political system working.
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
Dr. Foxy, do you think people will be delighted at green levies (or whatever name they're given) driving up energy costs significantly?
No. It is however essential that climate change is tackled by all nations and peoples of the world. The alternative is not a good outcome for the human race.
"For the human race" - Ah I see.
Meanwhile, China, India and Russia are laughing at the West self-imploding.
China is doing a lot itself to address climate change. India should be as it faces large parts of its territory becoming uninhabitable in the next century. Russia is a gangster state in terminal decline. The West is doing the right thing on climate change, but not enough.
Can you define "enough"?
I must admit I don't follow this as closely as I should, but my impression after COP26 was that policy commitments to date were generally considered insufficient to prevent an unsustainable rise in temperature. In other words, not enough is being done.
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
And yet if they split - who would take the Scottish Tories seriously? Both HYUFD and Mr R-M are already dissing them; they have given up on them already.
What is Mr Ross going to do without the money and assets? Bearing in mind a lot of members and voters will hop ship to the SLDs and Ms Ballantyne's mob rather than vote for Unionist Party 2.0 - which really, really has an unhappy name/connotations in Scotland.
What is Mr Ross going to tell voters? "That bunch in London are a big golden turd like an Edinburgh hotel and I want Scotland to stick to them and do whatever they say."
I hear you. What message do they have for voters? That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit? That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB? That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back) That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
what did he say... missed that?
JRM just rubbished and belittled the Scottish party and the specific Scots Tory politicians who are calling for Boris to go. JRM should have stuck to the issues; instead he made it personal. I doubt this patronising approach to his Scottish colleagues will go down well north of the border, and if the PM doesn't go soon the Scottish Tory party may have to consider setting itself up as a separate organisation.
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
IIRC, in the US, where they have many more anti-vaxers, when the vaccine mandates were introduced in a several places, for medical staff, they ended up losing a tiny handful of staff.
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
All 31 Conservative & Unionist MSPs agree with their leader Douglas Ross that the prime minister should resign.
Unanimity in that group is rare, but Boris has managed to unite them. Pretty impressive for the ‘Minister for the Union’ (sic) to be greeted by a solid wall of hostility from Scottish Unionists.
They elect their leader at Holyrood, let Westminster MPs still elect their leader at Westminster
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
There is nothing to save, not a single council in Scotland is currently Conservative controlled
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
I hope you reconsider, you would be much missed.
He probably needs another 3-4 people asking him to stay before the reverse flounce is on.
I like Charles. He reminds me of a notorious name-dropper I knew in the 1980s. He’s like an historical artefact.
He’ll probably do what Sean, Philip and hundreds of others have done and pop up with a new username. He’ll be super easy to spot as, like many great writers, he has a very distinctive voice.
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
It is a pity that ritual protests are thought necessary. Just get on with it.
Though as vaccination is very far from perfect at stopping transmission though very good at preventing serious disease, what is the objective?
To reduce the risk to pregnant women, or just to be beastly to the unvaxxed? Increasingly it looks like the latter.
I think it is entirely reasonable for the Health Service to seek to minimise risks to patients. It is clearly the case that vaccination does significantly reduce risks.
I think the "beastly to the unvaxxed" one is a red herring.
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
It will be a shame if you feel you have to leave the site as I find your insight from your professional background a fine addition to the brains trust here. If an Etonian is to disappear into obscurity in the minds of PB then it would clearly be better if it were JRM or Boris!
May I suggest that instead of leaving that you take the transitional route and change your ID to a pirate name and keep posting the same or alternatively just create a new identity as an artisanal ladies stress relief manufacturer and part time global traveller.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
I hope you reconsider, you would be much missed.
He probably needs another 3-4 people asking him to stay before the reverse flounce is on.
I like Charles. He reminds me of a notorious name-dropper I knew in the 1980s. He’s like an historical artefact.
He’ll probably do what Sean, Philip and hundreds of others have done and pop up with a new username. He’ll be super easy to spot as, like many great writers, he has a very distinctive voice.
Charles barely name drops.
If you want name dropping, you want Woger in his heyday.
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
And yet if they split - who would take the Scottish Tories seriously? Both HYUFD and Mr R-M are already dissing them; they have given up on them already.
What is Mr Ross going to do without the money and assets? Bearing in mind a lot of members and voters will hop ship to the SLDs and Ms Ballantyne's mob rather than vote for Unionist Party 2.0 - which really, really has an unhappy name/connotations in Scotland.
What is Mr Ross going to tell voters? "That bunch in London are a big golden turd like an Edinburgh hotel and I want Scotland to stick to them and do whatever they say."
I hear you. What message do they have for voters? That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit? That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB? That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back) That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
This week Farming Today has been covering seafood industries. Successes seem to get far too little coverage.
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
There is nothing to save, not a single council in Scotland is currently Conservative controlled
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
There is nothing to save, not a single council in Scotland is currently Conservative controlled
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
And yet if they split - who would take the Scottish Tories seriously? Both HYUFD and Mr R-M are already dissing them; they have given up on them already.
What is Mr Ross going to do without the money and assets? Bearing in mind a lot of members and voters will hop ship to the SLDs and Ms Ballantyne's mob rather than vote for Unionist Party 2.0 - which really, really has an unhappy name/connotations in Scotland.
What is Mr Ross going to tell voters? "That bunch in London are a big golden turd like an Edinburgh hotel and I want Scotland to stick to them and do whatever they say."
I hear you. What message do they have for voters? That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit? That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB? That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back) That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
But they are Unionists. They can't go it alone. By definition. And because of the crashing contradiction. Unless they are going to say that Mr Starmer is a better Imperial Overlord than Mr Johnson, for instance?
They were separate to begin with because they were a specifically Scottish and imperialist party which, at least in urban areas, held power in the Scottish version of working-class Toryism, in part on the back of anti-Irish and anti-RC nativisit upper working class sentiment in the days when only the Protestants got the apprenticeships and nice jobs, and the Catholics were the labourers - and, soon, became the Labour voters. That is no longer a rationale. Is it?
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
Well I have no idea who you are. Please don't go. I've not looked back at the previous thread but whoever it was should apologise.
Meanwhile @Isam remains banned for nothing it seems to me.
I agree.
Please do not go @Charles and the poster involved should provide an apology to you
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
Arrogant entitled little Englander
Jacob would hold his North East Somerset seat even on last night's poll
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
To be fair, the blame for their impending disaster in May lies fairly and squarely on the shoulders of De Pfeffel. But Rees-Mogg’s contribution last night must be like a punch to the solar plexus for Scottish Tories.
Internal unity is critical to sustained political success. Such public disunity so close to polling day is an unmanageable nightmare for the SCons. All Ruth Davidson’s advances are about to be thrown down the drain. And for what? To protect the biggest mendacious charlatan to ever hold the office of prime minister.
If Rees-Mogg thinks that Douglas Ross is “lightweight” then he has clearly never met the rest of the parliamentary group.
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
Arrogant entitled little Englander
Flavible suggests that JRM's constituency goes to Con 31, Lab 31, LD 28, Green 8 if you punch in the latest YouGov numbers.
Interesting test case for Lab/LD co-operation: its location as "Greater Bath" would suggest the LibDems have the greatest potential here.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
This is sounding more and more like the Black Knight with every post....
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
Obviously Boris would survive an opposition tabled VONC, I was talking vote of Tory MPs
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
There's a VONC (VOC actually) within the Tory mps once Brady gets his 54 letters.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
You are championing 220 seats as some sort of acceptable compromise for Boris remaining in post
Boris will be gone, most probably by the end of the month, but certainly by the end of May
This story has a momentum all of its own - the Scots Tories for obvious reasons distancing themselves from BJ, but I wonder how this story sits among older (60plus) English Tory voters (N Farage's so called `decent people') who from what I am hearing are not at all happy how this pans out......
The Scottish Tory leader and most of his MSPs have called for Johnson to go. If he rides out the immediate furore (including the Sue Grey report, if a police intervention doesn't thwart her first,) then they're going to have to find some effective means to respond or their demands will look hollow and futile.
I can't think of anything short of a divorce from the party in London that's going to seem adequate under the circumstances, especially since Gove is reported to have dismissed Ross's intervention by belittling him at a gathering of Tory MPs in the Commons last night.
Although, as @Carnyx reminded me when this matter was discussed yesterday, it may also come down to the allocation of resources. If the Holyrood branch office doesn't own its own cash and property then it may be felt that it can't afford to go financially, even if it feels it needs to go politically. So, we shall see.
They will choose staying at the trough, will be down crawling for forgiveness tout suite. Be amazed if any of them have any principles.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
Arrogant entitled little Englander
Jacob would hold his North East Somerset seat even on last night's poll
So would have Owen Paterson based on his 2019 results
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
And yet if they split - who would take the Scottish Tories seriously? Both HYUFD and Mr R-M are already dissing them; they have given up on them already.
What is Mr Ross going to do without the money and assets? Bearing in mind a lot of members and voters will hop ship to the SLDs and Ms Ballantyne's mob rather than vote for Unionist Party 2.0 - which really, really has an unhappy name/connotations in Scotland.
What is Mr Ross going to tell voters? "That bunch in London are a big golden turd like an Edinburgh hotel and I want Scotland to stick to them and do whatever they say."
I hear you. What message do they have for voters? That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit? That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB? That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back) That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
This week Farming Today has been covering seafood industries. Successes seem to get far too little coverage.
For example 4 minutes in to this there is a piece about a Scottish producer exporting live shellfish by the tonne, and other products too: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00139dp
He is not keen on the absurd and entirely unnecessary EU bureaucracy, though, which requires each bag of cockles to be marked with a count of the numbers of individual cockles in the bag.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
You are championing 220 seats as some sort of acceptable compromise for Boris remaining in post
Boris will be gone, most probably by the end of the month, but certainly by the end of May
I think May is more probable than end of this month.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
You are championing 220 seats as some sort of acceptable compromise for Boris remaining in post
Boris will be gone, most probably by the end of the month, but certainly by the end of May
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
Arrogant entitled little Englander
Flavible suggests that JRM's constituency goes to Con 31, Lab 31, LD 28, Green 8 if you punch in the latest YouGov numbers.
Interesting test case for Lab/LD co-operation: its location as "Greater Bath" would suggest the LibDems have the greatest potential here.
Yes, but the Lab footprint around Bristol (a few miles away) would also be tempting... as usual, FPTP and bitter divide between Reds & yellows means the Old Etonian looks safe
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
Thatcher got 54.8% of Tory MPs backing her even in November 1990 despite Kinnock's Labour being 10%+ ahead.
On today's Tory leadership rules Thatcher would likely have survived as there would have been no second ballot and no further challenge could have been made until November 1991 which was nearly the next general election anyway
Dr. Foxy, do you think people will be delighted at green levies (or whatever name they're given) driving up energy costs significantly?
No. It is however essential that climate change is tackled by all nations and peoples of the world. The alternative is not a good outcome for the human race.
"For the human race" - Ah I see.
Meanwhile, China, India and Russia are laughing at the West self-imploding.
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
It is a pity that ritual protests are thought necessary. Just get on with it.
Though as vaccination is very far from perfect at stopping transmission though very good at preventing serious disease, what is the objective?
To reduce the risk to pregnant women, or just to be beastly to the unvaxxed? Increasingly it looks like the latter.
I think it is entirely reasonable for the Health Service to seek to minimise risks to patients. It is clearly the case that vaccination does significantly reduce risks.
I think the "beastly to the unvaxxed" one is a red herring.
Is it clearly the case? By next month there's probably not going to be many health workers who don't have some immunity from prior infection or vaccination. Is someone who has recently had Omicron a significantly greater risk to patients than someone who has been vaccinated?
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
You are championing 220 seats as some sort of acceptable compromise for Boris remaining in post
Boris will be gone, most probably by the end of the month, but certainly by the end of May
I think May is more probable than end of this month.
May is what most Tories in Parliament have likely now settled upon. The question is whether the dam can be held for that long, and the damage done meantime; in particular Tory councillors may not like being lined up as sacrificial lambs.
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
I hope you reconsider, you would be much missed.
He probably needs another 3-4 people asking him to stay before the reverse flounce is on.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
You are championing 220 seats as some sort of acceptable compromise for Boris remaining in post
Boris will be gone, most probably by the end of the month, but certainly by the end of May
I think May is more probable than end of this month.
May is what most Tories in Parliament have likely now settled upon. The question is whether the dam can be held for that long, and the damage done meantime; in particular Tory councillors may not like being lined up as sacrificial lambs.
it all depends on whatever else Dominic Cummings has in his box of tricks for his friends in ITV.. the shows not over yet
That YouGov poll will focus minds. I think he’s done.
It's a bad poll - although less bad than I expected. What is notable is that Labour only added 1 point. It's clear they have not sealed the deal. My own preference would be for Boris to go sooner rather than later to give the party more time to recover lost ground. Generally mid-term polls are a poor predictor for what may happen 2 years down the road so I would respectfully ask if HYUFD avoids telling me what they currently might say about alternative leaders now, 'red wall, Scottish or Falkland island sub-samples..........and drawing a whole heap of ridiculous conclusions from them!
- “It's clear they have not sealed the deal.”
Untrue. Labour have very much sealed the deal… in England and Wales. It is their Scottish performance which is dragging down their GB/UK headline figures. Eg:
Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21% England L 43% C 35% Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13%
UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%
(ITV’s Good Morning Britain/Survation; 1,218 adults online aged 18+ living in the UK between 10th and 11th December 2021.)
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
And yet if they split - who would take the Scottish Tories seriously? Both HYUFD and Mr R-M are already dissing them; they have given up on them already.
What is Mr Ross going to do without the money and assets? Bearing in mind a lot of members and voters will hop ship to the SLDs and Ms Ballantyne's mob rather than vote for Unionist Party 2.0 - which really, really has an unhappy name/connotations in Scotland.
What is Mr Ross going to tell voters? "That bunch in London are a big golden turd like an Edinburgh hotel and I want Scotland to stick to them and do whatever they say."
I hear you. What message do they have for voters? That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit? That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB? That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back) That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
This week Farming Today has been covering seafood industries. Successes seem to get far too little coverage.
For example 4 minutes in to this there is a piece about a Scottish producer exporting live shellfish by the tonne, and other products too: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00139dp
He is not keen on the absurd and entirely unnecessary EU bureaucracy, though, which requires each bag of cockles to be marked with a count of the numbers of individual cockles in the bag.
UK bureaucracy not EU. We did this. We demanded this. Treat us like a 3rd country!
Always assume the easiest path will be taken, which is usually do nothing, or moan anonymously but do nothing.
That some are on record against Boris makes it more serious than usual, but nothing remains the default option. Coups are risky and most people are cowards.
Just look how long May lasted after facing a challenge, albeit she survived it. Look how few in Labour spoke out publicly even seeing what was coming under Corbyn.
People are good at hoping something will turn up to solve the problem, even if it looks improbable. May elections may shatter that illusion, but until then at least not enough have the balls to act.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
They have all tied their hands till Grey reports. After that I expect a move from Sunak promptish. I don't in general buy the "prop him up in place to absorb flak" argument- too much chance for him to recover and rivals to scheme- and Sunak also has flak of his own as CotE coming up which he will want to move on from.
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
Arrogant entitled little Englander
Jacob would hold his North East Somerset seat even on last night's poll
So would have Owen Paterson based on his 2019 results
Owen Paterson never lost his seat at a general election, a by election is a different matter
Even if Bozo survives this and leads the Tories into the next GE the stench surrounding him will once again come to the fore when the opposition hammer the point home that you can’t trust a word he says and any election promises are likely to be broken .
The best thing for Labour is he limps on to the GE , the best thing for the country however is for Bozo to depart.
To be replaced by a ‘proper’ conservative, willing to drop the ‘green crap’ and cut public spending to balance the budget? Be careful what you wish for…
Cutting public spending wont retain the red wall.
And i’m willing to bet the “green crap” is popular in the wealthy lib dem targeted blue wall.
Doesn’t sound like a winning electoral strategy.
I think it’s starting to dawn on people, that the persuit of a decarbonised economy comes at a high price. Even the wealthy South East isn’t full of people who can easily stump up another £100 a *month* in energy bills.
Exactly. Support for this will soon diminish when people start to pay the bills and it is fine for wealthy middle class posters here to say we have to do it. They can afford to pay it.
Ultimately we have got to keep using fossil fuels until we can fully transition to renewables and they can deliver 100% of our growing energy needs all year round. That will not be for a very long time either. So impoverishing further the poor is not going to help.
The problem with fossil fuels - even setting all of the environmental issues aside - is that they are not the cheap alternative they once were. Whilst there is still an awful lot of oil and gas left its increasingly harder to get at and increasingly in the control of nations who aren't entirely friendly to the west.
The UK had this golden bonanza, a vast sea of oil and gas. And largely its gone. We sold off the oil rights so that others got rich instead of the state like in Norway, and we let the private sector burn gas instead of coal for bigger profits.
As a businessman I have no problem with turning a profit but it can't be short term over the interests of the long term as we have done. We're now increasingly at the mercy of international supply and international trading prices, so the idea that we can just bin off the "expensive" green energy for "cheaper" fossil energy is for the birds.
As always we need a mix. Oil and gas absolutely. Learn how to build nuclear reactors again. And develop tidal, wind, solar and hydrogen where we can become a world leader in these fields. It will be expensive at the start hence the need for mega subsidies. But the alternative is paying mega money to Putin and Sandpit's Sheikhs.
The larger point is that works energy demand is growing, so cheap fossil fuels aren't a realistic future alternative anyway. Even if we wished to back a losing gamble on climate change not happening.
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
I hope you reconsider, you would be much missed.
He probably needs another 3-4 people asking him to stay before the reverse flounce is on.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
You are championing 220 seats as some sort of acceptable compromise for Boris remaining in post
Boris will be gone, most probably by the end of the month, but certainly by the end of May
I think May is more probable than end of this month.
My thinking on this is that conservative mps are facing an existential crisis and clearly are in constant discussions preparing for the release of Sue Gray's report which will report on all the alleged parties.
This is the moment of immediate great danger to Boris and I do expect a swift challenge to him
However, it he survives this then I agree May will see him go
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
This story has a momentum all of its own - the Scots Tories for obvious reasons distancing themselves from BJ, but I wonder how this story sits among older (60plus) English Tory voters (N Farage's so called `decent people') who from what I am hearing are not at all happy how this pans out......
The Scottish Tory leader and most of his MSPs have called for Johnson to go. If he rides out the immediate furore (including the Sue Grey report, if a police intervention doesn't thwart her first,) then they're going to have to find some effective means to respond or their demands will look hollow and futile.
I can't think of anything short of a divorce from the party in London that's going to seem adequate under the circumstances, especially since Gove is reported to have dismissed Ross's intervention by belittling him at a gathering of Tory MPs in the Commons last night.
Although, as @Carnyx reminded me when this matter was discussed yesterday, it may also come down to the allocation of resources. If the Holyrood branch office doesn't own its own cash and property then it may be felt that it can't afford to go financially, even if it feels it needs to go politically. So, we shall see.
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
It is a pity that ritual protests are thought necessary. Just get on with it.
Though as vaccination is very far from perfect at stopping transmission though very good at preventing serious disease, what is the objective?
To reduce the risk to pregnant women, or just to be beastly to the unvaxxed? Increasingly it looks like the latter.
I think it is entirely reasonable for the Health Service to seek to minimise risks to patients. It is clearly the case that vaccination does significantly reduce risks.
I think the "beastly to the unvaxxed" one is a red herring.
Is it clearly the case? By next month there's probably not going to be many health workers who don't have some immunity from prior infection or vaccination. Is someone who has recently had Omicron a significantly greater risk to patients than someone who has been vaccinated?
For a service caring for people who, for example, may have had their immune systems damaged by their condition, or deliberately as part of their treatment, I don't think that "probably" and "some" make a strong enough case.
For me the balance of this argument is firmly on the side of the precautionary principle wrt to patient safety.
Always assume the easiest path will be taken, which is usually do nothing, or moan anonymously but do nothing.
That some are on record against Boris makes it more serious than usual, but nothing remains the default option. Coups are risky and most people are cowards.
Just look how long May lasted after facing a challenge, albeit she survived it. Look how few in Labour spoke out publicly even seeing what was coming under Corbyn.
People are good at hoping something will turn up to solve the problem, even if it looks improbable. May elections may shatter that illusion, but until then at least not enough have the balls to act.
Mrs May carried on for six months after the confidence vote, losing Commons votes on an almost weekly basis for most of that time.
Oh well, looks like I’m still in a very small minority when it comes to the PM.
I don’t have any particular like for the guy, have met several sales people with similar personalities over the years and know not to trust them as far as I can throw them. He was in the right place at the right time in 2019 though, and added many Conservative seats in traditionally Labour areas.
He wouldn’t have been many people’s choice to handle a pandemic, but the vaccine rollout was brilliant and in recent times he’s avoided imposing restrictions that were put in place elsewhere.
When the LotO calls directly for the PM to resign, and he doesn’t, that makes Starmer look weak. All the attacks at PMQs will have done is strengthened his position, even if it’s only on a temporary basis.
Absolutely disastrous for the opposition parties that BJ has strengthened his position as leader of the Tories, oh yes.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
I'd guess that the most probable outcome of Sue Grey's report will be highly critical but say nothing about consequences - "rules were broken on 4 occasions, as follows..." - that sort of thing. Johnson will look suitably apologetic and say it was very hectic in mid-pandemic, but no excuses, I take responsibility, in the unlikely event of future restrictions, I will keep this totally in mind.
Do we think that Tory MPs will then vote him out? I think it's actually less likely than now - people will see it as anti-climax since they're sort of expecting a "This is a resignation issue" finding which a civil servant will nor deliver.
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
And yet if they split - who would take the Scottish Tories seriously? Both HYUFD and Mr R-M are already dissing them; they have given up on them already.
What is Mr Ross going to do without the money and assets? Bearing in mind a lot of members and voters will hop ship to the SLDs and Ms Ballantyne's mob rather than vote for Unionist Party 2.0 - which really, really has an unhappy name/connotations in Scotland.
What is Mr Ross going to tell voters? "That bunch in London are a big golden turd like an Edinburgh hotel and I want Scotland to stick to them and do whatever they say."
I hear you. What message do they have for voters? That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit? That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB? That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back) That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
This week Farming Today has been covering seafood industries. Successes seem to get far too little coverage.
For example 4 minutes in to this there is a piece about a Scottish producer exporting live shellfish by the tonne, and other products too: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00139dp
He is not keen on the absurd and entirely unnecessary EU bureaucracy, though, which requires each bag of cockles to be marked with a count of the numbers of individual cockles in the bag.
UK bureaucracy not EU. We did this. We demanded this. Treat us like a 3rd country!
No. EU bureaucracy.
The UK did not make the decision to introduce it.
The UK decided to Brexit. The EU chooses to make it difficult for 3rd countries to trade with the EU.
That the EU makes it easier for 3rd countries to trade with each other than to trade with the EU, is an EU problem of the EU's creation. They will end up inside a wall they have built around themselves, self-abusing with their own paperwork.
There's an interesting piece here about the wine industry by Jancis Robinson (owns a vineyard in France) and Brexit, and how the VI-1 form that may cause problems basically started out as an EU protectionist measure. https://www.jancisrobinson.com/articles/brexits-effect-uk-wine-scene
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
It is a pity that ritual protests are thought necessary. Just get on with it.
Though as vaccination is very far from perfect at stopping transmission though very good at preventing serious disease, what is the objective?
To reduce the risk to pregnant women, or just to be beastly to the unvaxxed? Increasingly it looks like the latter.
I think it is entirely reasonable for the Health Service to seek to minimise risks to patients. It is clearly the case that vaccination does significantly reduce risks.
I think the "beastly to the unvaxxed" one is a red herring.
Is it clearly the case? By next month there's probably not going to be many health workers who don't have some immunity from prior infection or vaccination. Is someone who has recently had Omicron a significantly greater risk to patients than someone who has been vaccinated?
For a service caring for people who, for example, may have had their immune systems damaged by their condition, or deliberately as part of their treatment, I don't think that "probably" and "some" make a strong enough case.
For me the balance of this argument is firmly on the side of the precautionary principle wrt to patient safety.
OK, but I was asking if it is as you said "clearly the case" that vaccination of health care workers significantly reduces the risk to patients. If you are switching to the "precautionary principle" now, does that mean you no longer think that it is clearly the case?
Even if Bozo survives this and leads the Tories into the next GE the stench surrounding him will once again come to the fore when the opposition hammer the point home that you can’t trust a word he says and any election promises are likely to be broken .
The best thing for Labour is he limps on to the GE , the best thing for the country however is for Bozo to depart.
To be replaced by a ‘proper’ conservative, willing to drop the ‘green crap’ and cut public spending to balance the budget? Be careful what you wish for…
Cutting public spending wont retain the red wall.
And i’m willing to bet the “green crap” is popular in the wealthy lib dem targeted blue wall.
Doesn’t sound like a winning electoral strategy.
The problem there is that the so-called "green crap" is not crap.
It was interesting yesteday listening to the boss of Centrica on R4 demanding a series of measures that would save lots of money for Centrica, and the talking head not skewering him on it.
Equally this AM we have had a representative of the baking industry demanding that the sky is about to fall in, and the BBC R4 presenter not even putting in context by demanding what the extra cost would be on the finished product, whether a loaf of sliced break or a Vegan Sausage Roll.
Electricity to make a loaf in a bread machine is about 5-7p at todays post-doubling electricity prices.
Useless media.
Whatever to happened to actual journalism, rather than opinion-based ‘news’ and unchallenged vested interests?
An industry that’s been badly shown up in the past couple of years.
Remember when Pret claimed that only 1% of its job applicants were British, that pay rates were nothing to do with it and it couldn't survive without an unlimited stream of EU migrants to exploit ?
Pret A Manger is to raise the pay of thousands of its workers to more than £10 per hour, following the lead of other retailers and supermarkets.
The sandwich chain said it wanted to invest in its staff as it recovered from the coronavirus pandemic which has battered its business.
It is the second time it has raised pay since September and comes as employers face a widespread worker shortage.
Always assume the easiest path will be taken, which is usually do nothing, or moan anonymously but do nothing.
That some are on record against Boris makes it more serious than usual, but nothing remains the default option. Coups are risky and most people are cowards.
Just look how long May lasted after facing a challenge, albeit she survived it. Look how few in Labour spoke out publicly even seeing what was coming under Corbyn.
People are good at hoping something will turn up to solve the problem, even if it looks improbable. May elections may shatter that illusion, but until then at least not enough have the balls to act.
Mrs May carried on for six months after the confidence vote, losing Commons votes on an almost weekly basis for most of that time.
Nothing like the present implosion. She was an adult. This is really unprecedented in the UK, one has to look to Trump or Heliogabalus for similar meltdowns
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
Arrogant entitled little Englander
Flavible suggests that JRM's constituency goes to Con 31, Lab 31, LD 28, Green 8 if you punch in the latest YouGov numbers.
Interesting test case for Lab/LD co-operation: its location as "Greater Bath" would suggest the LibDems have the greatest potential here.
Exactly and we have had this discussion before about JRMs seat. There are seats where where Lab are 2nd and LDs 3rd but which It would be easier for LDs to win. How to get that message across?
And how daft was JRM to refer to a fellow Tory as a lightweight. Not going to be forgotten when this is over.
- “Douglas Ross has always been quite a lightweight figure.”
Who said that?
Nicola Sturgeon? Anas Sarwar? Patrick Harvie? Michelle Ballantyne?
Nope. It was fellow Conservative, cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. In a BBC interview no less.
Who needs enemies when you’ve got friends like that?
In a “lightweight” competition, Rees-Mogg wins hands down.
What do you expect from Rees-Mogg when referring to a scottish farmer who went to a comprehensive school who has dissed a fellow old Etonian....
I find a lot of Tories to be intolerable, arrogant, nasty snobs, but surely Jacob Rees-Mogg must set some kind of record? Even Tories must be able to see this?
I see it and the sooner he loses his seat the better
Arrogant entitled little Englander
Flavible suggests that JRM's constituency goes to Con 31, Lab 31, LD 28, Green 8 if you punch in the latest YouGov numbers.
Interesting test case for Lab/LD co-operation: its location as "Greater Bath" would suggest the LibDems have the greatest potential here.
If the boundary changes go through some LD and Labour wards in his seat closer to Bath would move to a new Frome constituency. Rees Mogg would be left with a safer Keynsham and North East Somerset seat
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
I'd guess that the most probable outcome of Sue Grey's report will be highly critical but say nothing about consequences - "rules were broken on 4 occasions, as follows..." - that sort of thing. Johnson will look suitably apologetic and say it was very hectic in mid-pandemic, but no excuses, I take responsibility, in the unlikely event of future restrictions, I will keep this totally in mind.
Do we think that Tory MPs will then vote him out? I think it's actually less likely than now - people will see it as anti-climax since they're sort of expecting a "This is a resignation issue" finding which a civil servant will nor deliver.
Yes.
Perhaps even simply finding out the facts and leaving the judgement to politicians might be wise for a Civil Servant .
Even if Bozo survives this and leads the Tories into the next GE the stench surrounding him will once again come to the fore when the opposition hammer the point home that you can’t trust a word he says and any election promises are likely to be broken .
The best thing for Labour is he limps on to the GE , the best thing for the country however is for Bozo to depart.
To be replaced by a ‘proper’ conservative, willing to drop the ‘green crap’ and cut public spending to balance the budget? Be careful what you wish for…
Cutting public spending wont retain the red wall.
And i’m willing to bet the “green crap” is popular in the wealthy lib dem targeted blue wall.
Doesn’t sound like a winning electoral strategy.
I think it’s starting to dawn on people, that the persuit of a decarbonised economy comes at a high price. Even the wealthy South East isn’t full of people who can easily stump up another £100 a *month* in energy bills.
Exactly. Support for this will soon diminish when people start to pay the bills and it is fine for wealthy middle class posters here to say we have to do it. They can afford to pay it.
Ultimately we have got to keep using fossil fuels until we can fully transition to renewables and they can deliver 100% of our growing energy needs all year round. That will not be for a very long time either. So impoverishing further the poor is not going to help.
The problem with fossil fuels - even setting all of the environmental issues aside - is that they are not the cheap alternative they once were. Whilst there is still an awful lot of oil and gas left its increasingly harder to get at and increasingly in the control of nations who aren't entirely friendly to the west.
The UK had this golden bonanza, a vast sea of oil and gas. And largely its gone. We sold off the oil rights so that others got rich instead of the state like in Norway, and we let the private sector burn gas instead of coal for bigger profits.
As a businessman I have no problem with turning a profit but it can't be short term over the interests of the long term as we have done. We're now increasingly at the mercy of international supply and international trading prices, so the idea that we can just bin off the "expensive" green energy for "cheaper" fossil energy is for the birds.
As always we need a mix. Oil and gas absolutely. Learn how to build nuclear reactors again. And develop tidal, wind, solar and hydrogen where we can become a world leader in these fields. It will be expensive at the start hence the need for mega subsidies. But the alternative is paying mega money to Putin and Sandpit's Sheikhs.
I think you are under the impression I am arguing against Green energy. I am not. Of course it makes sense from an energy security perspective to transfer to self sufficient renewables alongside new nuclear.
The green lobby is mostly against Nuclear so it is unlikely that it will make much headway in our energy mix.
I am a big fan of Hydrogen. But until you can get green hydrogen in abundance you need to produce Hydrogen from natural gas. Blue Hydrogen. And demand is going to sky rocket for Hydrogen. Just recently Andy Street announced 100 Hydrogen powered buses on the streets of Birmingham. There are more to come. Not just there.
I have been hearing about peak oil being reached for decades now. We should still explore, we should still extract. I heard the same points about diminishing quantities made about mining metals like copper in the eighties yet here we are today using more and more. Pricing will be reflected by supply and demand. Cambio, for example, should certainly go ahead. We could frack. We won't as there is no political will.
However support for green measures will evaporate if people end up paying more and more for them.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Your problem is that Boris shows no understanding of the things which cause him problems, no interest in understanding them and no willingness to remedy them.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
I'd guess that the most probable outcome of Sue Grey's report will be highly critical but say nothing about consequences - "rules were broken on 4 occasions, as follows..." - that sort of thing. Johnson will look suitably apologetic and say it was very hectic in mid-pandemic, but no excuses, I take responsibility, in the unlikely event of future restrictions, I will keep this totally in mind.
Do we think that Tory MPs will then vote him out? I think it's actually less likely than now - people will see it as anti-climax since they're sort of expecting a "This is a resignation issue" finding which a civil servant will nor deliver.
It's in the national interest, and the Conservative partisan interest (not the same thing) for BoJo to go pronto.
But it's in nobody's personal interest to be the one that presses the red button.
That might change, or events might move from "too early" to "too late" with no sweet spot in between.
Always assume the easiest path will be taken, which is usually do nothing, or moan anonymously but do nothing.
That some are on record against Boris makes it more serious than usual, but nothing remains the default option. Coups are risky and most people are cowards.
Just look how long May lasted after facing a challenge, albeit she survived it. Look how few in Labour spoke out publicly even seeing what was coming under Corbyn.
People are good at hoping something will turn up to solve the problem, even if it looks improbable. May elections may shatter that illusion, but until then at least not enough have the balls to act.
Mrs May carried on for six months after the confidence vote, losing Commons votes on an almost weekly basis for most of that time.
And even had poll leads during that time despite all that!
All 31 Conservative & Unionist MSPs agree with their leader Douglas Ross that the prime minister should resign.
Unanimity in that group is rare, but Boris has managed to unite them. Pretty impressive for the ‘Minister for the Union’ (sic) to be greeted by a solid wall of hostility from Scottish Unionists.
They elect their leader at Holyrood, let Westminster MPs still elect their leader at Westminster
“They” and “their”, not “we” and “our”.
I love you FUDHY. Please send over a photo. I can’t decide who my new profile pic is going to be once De Pfeffel falls. Previous office holders have been Johan Lamont and Iain Gray. I was hoping to pop up Glaikit Murdo, Big Jackie or Anas the Millionaire, but I’m warming to a stint for your good self.
By the way just catching up on the politics. So much for my theory that Rees Mogg would be the one to hand Johnson the revolver. What a charlatan!
His comments on Newsnight have given the Tories in Scotland a big problem, if the clown doesn't go reasonably soon.
DRoss and most of his colleagues look at the PM, the polls and the forthcoming May local elections and think "uh oh". So set out a principled position before yesterday's sorrynotsorry and followed through with it.
On one hand that should give them an element of protection from the electorate. But BJ continues to suck and now Lord Mogg says that Scotland and Scottish MPs and the leader of the party in Scotland are "lightweight".
In the short term how does DRoss try and form a compact with the electorate to save May's elections? What can he say / do? And what does it mean for the medium and long term - a divorce between the parties either side of the wall?
And yet if they split - who would take the Scottish Tories seriously? Both HYUFD and Mr R-M are already dissing them; they have given up on them already.
What is Mr Ross going to do without the money and assets? Bearing in mind a lot of members and voters will hop ship to the SLDs and Ms Ballantyne's mob rather than vote for Unionist Party 2.0 - which really, really has an unhappy name/connotations in Scotland.
What is Mr Ross going to tell voters? "That bunch in London are a big golden turd like an Edinburgh hotel and I want Scotland to stick to them and do whatever they say."
I hear you. What message do they have for voters? That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit? That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB? That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back) That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
This week Farming Today has been covering seafood industries. Successes seem to get far too little coverage.
For example 4 minutes in to this there is a piece about a Scottish producer exporting live shellfish by the tonne, and other products too: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00139dp
He is not keen on the absurd and entirely unnecessary EU bureaucracy, though, which requires each bag of cockles to be marked with a count of the numbers of individual cockles in the bag.
UK bureaucracy not EU. We did this. We demanded this. Treat us like a 3rd country!
No. EU bureaucracy.
The UK did not make the decision to introduce it.
The UK decided to Brexit. The EU chooses to make it difficult for 3rd countries to trade with the EU.
That the EU makes it easier for 3rd countries to trade with each other than to trade with the EU, is an EU problem of the EU's creation. They will end up inside a wall they have built around themselves, self-abusing with their own paperwork.
Mate, we knew what "3rd country" rules were. We chose which bits we wanted to negotiate away in the TCA. This was not one of them.
So we asked to be treated like any other country without a trade agreement in this area and they obliged. How is this forcing something on us unwillingly when they said "do you want this" we said "yes please" and they said "ok"?
The fault lies with the government not having a clue how trade works, what the details were, and what was important to Scottish fishermen. No matter how you try and deflect blame from your government to other parties it doesn't change both reality and the way that fishermen are rightly blaming the government for the mess.
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
I hope you reconsider, you would be much missed.
He probably needs another 3-4 people asking him to stay before the reverse flounce is on.
I like Charles. He reminds me of a notorious name-dropper I knew in the 1980s. He’s like an historical artefact.
He’ll probably do what Sean, Philip and hundreds of others have done and pop up with a new username. He’ll be super easy to spot as, like many great writers, he has a very distinctive voice.
Charles barely name drops.
If you want name dropping, you want Woger in his heyday.
Roger is another great writer with a very distinctive voice. He’d be easy to spot if he ever changes username. (Not sure if Roger is his real name.)
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
It is a pity that ritual protests are thought necessary. Just get on with it.
Though as vaccination is very far from perfect at stopping transmission though very good at preventing serious disease, what is the objective?
To reduce the risk to pregnant women, or just to be beastly to the unvaxxed? Increasingly it looks like the latter.
I think it is entirely reasonable for the Health Service to seek to minimise risks to patients. It is clearly the case that vaccination does significantly reduce risks.
I think the "beastly to the unvaxxed" one is a red herring.
Is it clearly the case? By next month there's probably not going to be many health workers who don't have some immunity from prior infection or vaccination. Is someone who has recently had Omicron a significantly greater risk to patients than someone who has been vaccinated?
For a service caring for people who, for example, may have had their immune systems damaged by their condition, or deliberately as part of their treatment, I don't think that "probably" and "some" make a strong enough case.
For me the balance of this argument is firmly on the side of the precautionary principle wrt to patient safety.
OK, but I was asking if it is as you said "clearly the case" that vaccination of health care workers significantly reduces the risk to patients. If you are switching to the "precautionary principle" now, does that mean you no longer think that it is clearly the case?
I don't think I switched.
Vaccination does significantly reduce risk of transmission, and it is basic to the Health Service that risks to patients need to be minimised.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
I'd guess that the most probable outcome of Sue Grey's report will be highly critical but say nothing about consequences - "rules were broken on 4 occasions, as follows..." - that sort of thing. Johnson will look suitably apologetic and say it was very hectic in mid-pandemic, but no excuses, I take responsibility, in the unlikely event of future restrictions, I will keep this totally in mind.
Do we think that Tory MPs will then vote him out? I think it's actually less likely than now - people will see it as anti-climax since they're sort of expecting a "This is a resignation issue" finding which a civil servant will nor deliver.
I think a fair bit hinges on the May local elections too. Will she report before then ?
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Priceless.
Ask FUDHY to bring one of his tanks when he comes canvassing with you.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
Leading the council with support from someone else is better than not leading it at all. That'swhat may be lost, politically. Its not nothing to those doing the leading now.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
I'd guess that the most probable outcome of Sue Grey's report will be highly critical but say nothing about consequences - "rules were broken on 4 occasions, as follows..." - that sort of thing. Johnson will look suitably apologetic and say it was very hectic in mid-pandemic, but no excuses, I take responsibility, in the unlikely event of future restrictions, I will keep this totally in mind.
Do we think that Tory MPs will then vote him out? I think it's actually less likely than now - people will see it as anti-climax since they're sort of expecting a "This is a resignation issue" finding which a civil servant will nor deliver.
I think a fair bit hinges on the May local elections too. Will she report before then ?
If I know civil servants, and I do, if she can reasonably justify leaving it till after then she will. But it's a bloody long way to May.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
Exactly! That our council has a Conservative leader and Conservatives in cabinet delivering Conservative policies is "nothing to save".
So come on. Come up here to the NE and help me remove your man from office. You don't support him, his colleagues, or your party so why not do it properly and deliver some LibDem leaflets with me.
I’m sure Johnson et al thought that having Sue Gray produce a report was an excellent way of kicking their problems into longer grass, but surely all it really means now is that the electorate is going to be reminded all over again of every detail of these events whenever she publishes it & the story is going to become live all over again?
As people who were around last night may have seen, I had a small spat with someone.
While I’ve never made a particular secret of my identity this individual chose to highlight the fact that he knew some of my family in the real world.
That really doesn’t sit well with me and, frankly, doesn’t fit with the culture of this place which - to my mind - has always operated on “Chatham house rules”.
So it’s time for me to say goodbye.
Have fun and play nice. I shall miss the wit and insight.
I hope you reconsider, you would be much missed.
He probably needs another 3-4 people asking him to stay before the reverse flounce is on.
I like Charles. He reminds me of a notorious name-dropper I knew in the 1980s. He’s like an historical artefact.
He’ll probably do what Sean, Philip and hundreds of others have done and pop up with a new username. He’ll be super easy to spot as, like many great writers, he has a very distinctive voice.
Charles barely name drops.
If you want name dropping, you want Woger in his heyday.
Roger is another great writer with a very distinctive voice. He’d be easy to spot if he ever changes username. (Not sure if Roger is his real name.)
You are aware that everyone on PB is really SeanT?
I think they have the barest glimmer if they put Sunak at the helm. Otherwise they're in for a bloodbath.
From a Tory perspective they need to get someone in to stop a bloodbath. They will still lose. However, I am still convinced the next election is a good one to lose (I know some will argue that there is no such thing).
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
So? The Tories are the largest party in the governing coalition.
If you want to be a smaller party than your coalition partner the Liberal Democrats then that is absolutely fine by me. You are certainly going the right way about it.
Nursing and midwifery leaders have urged Sajid Javid to delay the introduction of compulsory Covid jabs for NHS staff and said the controversial policy amounted to “self-sabotage”.
Significantly, the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital trusts in England, made clear it believed that the policy is being introduced at undue haste
The thing is just kicking the can down the road won't change anything. Those working for the NHS, who have always been at the front of the queue for jabs, and yet still aren't jabbed over a year after they could, aren't just going to do so in a few weeks time.
NHS workers have had far longer than care home staff to get the bloody jab.
It is self-sabotage. And is it needed? With Omicron we could very well get out of this without needing this policy against the unvaccinated anyway. Those opposed to this should argue against it in these practical terms rather than from moral positions.
Note even if 145 Tory MPs lost their seats on last night's polls, 220 Tory MPs would still keep their seats even after this onslaught.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Are you referring to a VONC if Starmer tabled one?
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
I think a VONC prior to Gray reporting would be a mistake; the awaited report gives Tories an easy free pass to unite, even those who want the clown to step down.
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
I'd guess that the most probable outcome of Sue Grey's report will be highly critical but say nothing about consequences - "rules were broken on 4 occasions, as follows..." - that sort of thing. Johnson will look suitably apologetic and say it was very hectic in mid-pandemic, but no excuses, I take responsibility, in the unlikely event of future restrictions, I will keep this totally in mind.
Do we think that Tory MPs will then vote him out? I think it's actually less likely than now - people will see it as anti-climax since they're sort of expecting a "This is a resignation issue" finding which a civil servant will nor deliver.
I think a fair bit hinges on the May local elections too. Will she report before then ?
Supposedly 4-6 weeks, probably at the long end as additional allegations have been made. Say mid-March?
Not impossible that readers will be bored by then - "oh not that stuff again". On the other hand, they probably already have a settled view on whether the Conservatives excel at telling the truth.
Comments
The UK had this golden bonanza, a vast sea of oil and gas. And largely its gone. We sold off the oil rights so that others got rich instead of the state like in Norway, and we let the private sector burn gas instead of coal for bigger profits.
As a businessman I have no problem with turning a profit but it can't be short term over the interests of the long term as we have done. We're now increasingly at the mercy of international supply and international trading prices, so the idea that we can just bin off the "expensive" green energy for "cheaper" fossil energy is for the birds.
As always we need a mix. Oil and gas absolutely. Learn how to build nuclear reactors again. And develop tidal, wind, solar and hydrogen where we can become a world leader in these fields. It will be expensive at the start hence the need for mega subsidies. But the alternative is paying mega money to Putin and Sandpit's Sheikhs.
France has been through this last autumn, and the country has not collapsed - with some suspensions. That was 3 months ago in a far more anti-vax culture than here, and they are still standing.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/20-000-french-health-workers-suspended-for-refusing-covid-19-jab-s9jd5nx92
It is a pity that ritual protests are thought necessary. Just get on with it.
Unanimity in that group is rare, but Boris has managed to unite them. Pretty impressive for the ‘Minister for the Union’ (sic) to be greeted by a solid wall of hostility from Scottish Unionists.
Meanwhile @Isam remains banned for nothing it seems to me.
The sustained (and settled) policy across multiple governments must be one of the rare examples of the political system working.
To reduce the risk to pregnant women, or just to be beastly to the unvaxxed? Increasingly it looks like the latter.
That they've boosted Farming and Fishing with a Brexit deal that delivered harm instead of benefit?
That they stand for the Union having split NI off from GB?
That they represent propriety and good government? (stop sniggering at the back)
That the Scottish people are loved and respected by the party?
That's why they'd almost be better off going it alone.
19 Tory msps have told him to go, must be pretty much a full house?
He’ll probably do what Sean, Philip and hundreds of others have done and pop up with a new username. He’ll be super easy to spot as, like many great writers, he has a very distinctive voice.
I think the "beastly to the unvaxxed" one is a red herring.
May I suggest that instead of leaving that you take the transitional route and change your ID to a pirate name and keep posting the same or alternatively just create a new identity as an artisanal ladies stress relief manufacturer and part time global traveller.
Whatever you decide, all the best.
So no certainty over 50% of Tory MPs will vote to no confidence Boris yet before he has had a chance to recover and end the remaining Covid restrictions for example
Arrogant entitled little Englander
If you want name dropping, you want Woger in his heyday.
Fantastic news! Like a true Corbynista the only way you can save the party is to destroy it!
They were separate to begin with because they were a specifically Scottish and imperialist party which, at least in urban areas, held power in the Scottish version of working-class Toryism, in part on the back of anti-Irish and anti-RC nativisit upper working class sentiment in the days when only the Protestants got the apprenticeships and nice jobs, and the Catholics were the labourers - and, soon, became the Labour voters. That is no longer a rationale. Is it?
Please do not go @Charles and the poster involved should provide an apology to you
If so, why would a CP MP express no confidence against Johnson in a VONC (which would be public) rather than writing to Brady (which would be private)?
Internal unity is critical to sustained political success. Such public disunity so close to polling day is an unmanageable nightmare for the SCons. All Ruth Davidson’s advances are about to be thrown down the drain. And for what? To protect the biggest mendacious charlatan to ever hold the office of prime minister.
If Rees-Mogg thinks that Douglas Ross is “lightweight” then he has clearly never met the rest of the parliamentary group.
Interesting test case for Lab/LD co-operation: its location as "Greater Bath" would suggest the LibDems have the greatest potential here.
Boris will be gone, most probably by the end of the month, but certainly by the end of May
The counter-argument would be that if a significant number of Tories were prepared to stand up and speak against their leader Geoffrey Howe style, it might finish him off. That's a judgement call they can only make in Parliament.
For example 4 minutes in to this there is a piece about a Scottish producer exporting live shellfish by the tonne, and other products too:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00139dp
He is not keen on the absurd and entirely unnecessary EU bureaucracy, though, which requires each bag of cockles to be marked with a count of the numbers of individual cockles in the bag.
On today's Tory leadership rules Thatcher would likely have survived as there would have been no second ballot and no further challenge could have been made until November 1991 which was nearly the next general election anyway
Untrue. Labour have very much sealed the deal… in England and Wales. It is their Scottish performance which is dragging down their GB/UK headline figures. Eg:
Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21%
England L 43% C 35%
Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13%
UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%
(ITV’s Good Morning Britain/Survation; 1,218 adults online aged 18+ living in the UK between 10th and 11th December 2021.)
That some are on record against Boris makes it more serious than usual, but nothing remains the default option. Coups are risky and most people are cowards.
Just look how long May lasted after facing a challenge, albeit she survived it. Look how few in Labour spoke out publicly even seeing what was coming under Corbyn.
People are good at hoping something will turn up to solve the problem, even if it looks improbable. May elections may shatter that illusion, but until then at least not enough have the balls to act.
Even if we wished to back a losing gamble on climate change not happening.
This is the moment of immediate great danger to Boris and I do expect a swift challenge to him
However, it he survives this then I agree May will see him go
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Couldn’t have put it better myself.
For me the balance of this argument is firmly on the side of the precautionary principle wrt to patient safety.
Do we think that Tory MPs will then vote him out? I think it's actually less likely than now - people will see it as anti-climax since they're sort of expecting a "This is a resignation issue" finding which a civil servant will nor deliver.
The UK did not make the decision to introduce it.
The UK decided to Brexit. The EU chooses to make it difficult for 3rd countries to trade with the EU.
That the EU makes it easier for 3rd countries to trade with each other than to trade with the EU, is an EU problem of the EU's creation. They will end up inside a wall they have built around themselves, self-abusing with their own paperwork.
There's an interesting piece here about the wine industry by Jancis Robinson (owns a vineyard in France) and Brexit, and how the VI-1 form that may cause problems basically started out as an EU protectionist measure.
https://www.jancisrobinson.com/articles/brexits-effect-uk-wine-scene
Pret A Manger is to raise the pay of thousands of its workers to more than £10 per hour, following the lead of other retailers and supermarkets.
The sandwich chain said it wanted to invest in its staff as it recovered from the coronavirus pandemic which has battered its business.
It is the second time it has raised pay since September and comes as employers face a widespread worker shortage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59967949
The tories won't recover from this.
I think they have the barest glimmer if they put Sunak at the helm. Otherwise they're in for a bloodbath.
And how daft was JRM to refer to a fellow Tory as a lightweight. Not going to be forgotten when this is over.
https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/shakeup-planned-jacob-rees-mogg-5503527
Perhaps even simply finding out the facts and leaving the judgement to politicians might be wise for a Civil Servant
The green lobby is mostly against Nuclear so it is unlikely that it will make much headway in our energy mix.
I am a big fan of Hydrogen. But until you can get green hydrogen in abundance you need to produce Hydrogen from natural gas. Blue Hydrogen. And demand is going to sky rocket for Hydrogen. Just recently Andy Street announced 100 Hydrogen powered buses on the streets of Birmingham. There are more to come. Not just there.
I have been hearing about peak oil being reached for decades now. We should still explore, we should still extract. I heard the same points about diminishing quantities made about mining metals like copper in the eighties yet here we are today using more and more. Pricing will be reflected by supply and demand. Cambio, for example, should certainly go ahead. We could frack. We won't as there is no political will.
However support for green measures will evaporate if people end up paying more and more for them.
But it's in nobody's personal interest to be the one that presses the red button.
That might change, or events might move from "too early" to "too late" with no sweet spot in between.
@MrHarryCole
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20m
Loyal ministers sitting on hands still.. but privately saying no “serious” MP or “heavy-weight” is calling for PM to go.
I love you FUDHY. Please send over a photo. I can’t decide who my new profile pic is going to be once De Pfeffel falls. Previous office holders have been Johan Lamont and Iain Gray. I was hoping to pop up Glaikit Murdo, Big Jackie or Anas the Millionaire, but I’m warming to a stint for your good self.
So we asked to be treated like any other country without a trade agreement in this area and they obliged. How is this forcing something on us unwillingly when they said "do you want this" we said "yes please" and they said "ok"?
The fault lies with the government not having a clue how trade works, what the details were, and what was important to Scottish fishermen. No matter how you try and deflect blame from your government to other parties it doesn't change both reality and the way that fishermen are rightly blaming the government for the mess.
Vaccination does significantly reduce risk of transmission, and it is basic to the Health Service that risks to patients need to be minimised.
"First, do no harm"?
Ask FUDHY to bring one of his tanks when he comes canvassing with you.
The tories are toxic now.
It takes a generation to overcome.
So come on. Come up here to the NE and help me remove your man from office. You don't support him, his colleagues, or your party so why not do it properly and deliver some LibDem leaflets with me.
If you want to be a smaller party than your coalition partner the Liberal Democrats then that is absolutely fine by me. You are certainly going the right way about it.
It isn't perfect at stopping transmission so why bother having doctors wear PPE?
Not impossible that readers will be bored by then - "oh not that stuff again". On the other hand, they probably already have a settled view on whether the Conservatives excel at telling the truth.