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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014
North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence)
Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 52, Liberal Democrats 24, Independents 2 (Labour majority of 26)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Liberal Democrats 870 (37%), Labour 770 (33%), Conservatives 419 (18%), Greens 273 (12%0
Candidates duly nominated:
0
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Leaving now (been on the computer most of the day), but a final psychopathic word:
one of the main characters in my work-in-progress is something of a psychopath. Loosely inspired by Livia from I, Claudius and mad Alice from the first season of Luther.
UKIP 1.25
Con 4.1
Lab 5
LD 34
Oth 50
Labour gain.
Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: Labour are back to a 3 point lead and the Libs are very low - CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%.
Plato said:
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"Exactly. There's a certain charisma that accompanies much of this too. You won't find a successful cult leader who doesn't have NPD. They have some great qualities, and not just the cliches that tend to be bandied about.
The ones I've known and had as good friends are extremely loyal, will protect you in extremis and superbly daring/funny company. They get things done. They tend to have very few friends as a lot of the behaviour is about protecting themselves emotionally/not feeling good enough [perfection is the yardstick] - but once you're inside the tent, it gives you a very special status...you're no longer a muggle, but one of them.
Because they're often very clever - they use it to dominate situations either verbally or intellectually. This is frequently quite bullying, if the person is really off the leash - especially when dealing with performances that don't meet their self-imposed standards of perfection. Very black and white in their views too, not people to cross or lie to. Trust is a big one for them - and revenge is dealt out accordingly.
Some folk find them really high maintenance or intimidating/cruel - I like them, they keep you on your toes all the time. Being on the wrong end of one is painful to watch, it's like Christians being fed to lions."
Wotcha Miss P.,
Didn't you get on well with a recent generation of Chief Constables? A lot of them matched your description to a T. The problem was they weren't actually good at leading, bullying and shouting, yes, but leading, no. They mostly left their respective forces and policing generally in a far worse state than they found them.
Its very easy to tell a good leader, their people want to follow them. Not just the cronies and those hoping for promotion but all their people. I used to work on a management development course for people who has just been promoted to strategic level. Day 1 and the opening question was, "OK you have now become strategic leaders in your organisation. Why should anyone follow you?" Amazingly enough very few people had ever thought about it. I even had one ACPO officer say, and I kid you not, "Because I am an Assistant Chief Constable".
Are the voters of Jesmond that precognitive?!
But it wouldn't be ideal.
While the students may not be there at the moment I doubt many of them voted anyway...
Police investigate as an ebayer claiming to live in Glasgow sells his votes as he does 'not give a flying monkeys about any of this'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11062014/Ebayers-selling-Scottish-referendum-votes-for-1.04.html
Potentially the worst Prime Minister ever?
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/16/are-we-really-only-five-months-away-from-daves-resignation/
Sandro never scores these days....
She will still be Queen of Scotland.
http://iceagenow.info/2014/08/iceland-website-calling-double-eruption/
And Katla is long overdue as well. Katla will cause infinitely more problems to european air space than the eruption 4 years ago, if it behaves true to form. Although miles from any road, swimming in the geothermal crater lake at Askja was an amazing experience when I was there:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Askja
A Labour majority of 3 (for example) passing a budget or QS with the votes of an Independent Scottish contingent would invoke a constitutional crisis and force the nation to ACTIVATE THE QUEEN.
re: United & Cecil
It's a dining club of young Tories, mainly in their 30s who shell out a couple of hundred a time for dinner with various MPs. I was briefly a member, but then dropped out because I never had time to go any of the events.
There really is nothing sinister about it. In fact it was really rather dull.
'The leaders who agencies had contacted to discuss issues, they knew about this.
'Community leaders were aware of what was happening and they were trying to solve that problem for forever - not just on this occasion but on many occasions people were talking to the community's leaders.
Was there anybody who didn't know this was going on? Other than obviously the guy in charge. Also solving the problem, really, weren't very successful were they. And I presume that their solution didn't involve going to the police.
The largest party in the House will change on Independence Day...
I'm sure civil servants are wargaming this scenario, but the most sensible option appears to be a fresh rUK election, and a special exception to the Fixed term Parliament Act.
Norns? You are convinced Orkney and Shetland will stay with the Union?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11061508/No-sex-please-were-British-now-first-fall-in-births-to-migrants-in-a-decade.html
for him.
Now subbed.... Holtby never to score from a freekick before he's sold at the weekend?
The fixed-term act was never going to last long after this Parliament anyway.
Having said that, if yes wins, expect 25 plus SNPers next year.
Nick Clegg...
My own hunch, were it to happen, and Dave quits, a Tory leadership election takes around 3 months.
To put it bluntly, we can't afford to dick around for 2 to 3 months.
So the next Tory leader will be coronated, and that will favour Theresa May.
Betfair #IndyRef YES price moves sharply upwards to a 21% chance. Was 14%. Leak of new poll? Could be
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJvs26IEAAAUAA.jpg
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=32596
Would Hayek approve?
He's fine, possibly rather good. Unlikely to be recalled as one of the greats. But he will be defined by his second term if he gets one, or by a very favourable comparison to his replacement if he does not, so it's too early to close the book.
And several directors that were infamous for their bullying of muggles.
I used to do a lot of informal coaching with them/how to get their way and be more personable/explaining how to talk with their staff in language that means something to them. I can only describe it as saving-themselves-from-themselves = most people were too scared to ever say it, or too easily squished by the response.
I also spent a lot of my time deflecting incoming fire aimed at some poor sod. I get the type, and know how to deal with them without twisting their tails. We both know that we're playing a game with each other, but that's just another level of enormous private joke.
TBH, it's quite threatening/inner circle stuff, if you're on the outside.
I know I hate it when I'm outside the tent!
That's why the personal charisma element is so crucial to their success. Being a handful is only worth it organisationally if you have enough allies, and real friends in the right places to have your back.
Those who fall to Earth spectacularly fail to do this and get nailed by their own rivals/staff as payback.
Cook threatened with ban after England are punished for slow over rate
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/england/11062374/Alastair-Cook-threatened-with-ban-after-England-are-punished-for-slow-over-rate-in-one-day-defeat-by-India.html
At the moment this looks very bad for the tories. Win the seat and get rid of one of their awkward brigade at the same time and it could look a whole lot better. Newark showed that the tory by election machine was in better nick than I can remember in my life time. They will be throwing the kitchen sink at this one.
Carswell to win by-election "comfortably".
But certainly not as good as he thinks he is or as some hoped he might be.
Brilliant riposte by Salmond and Swinney to refuse to take on any share of the UK debt in abstentia of being able to use the pound. And Mr Osborne thought he was being clever in the spring by playing the sterling card - law of unintended consequences and all of that.
Cameron would feel hugely deflated but I doubt he would resign, nor should he. He has played the issue right: right to allow the referendum, right to state briefly and clearly his support for the Union, right to stay out of the campaign. If the Scots want independence then that is no unique failing of his; they just want independence.
Squabbles and inanity. Do it, and do it with good grace England
More likely we will have a small Milliband majority, and we will never find out what the result of an EU ref would be.
Blair wins that prize - his legacy is exploding across the Middle East around the clock.
Throwing a fit of vanity and causing difficulties for his party is not his way, he is not Davis or Carswell.
https://twitter.com/itsmarcjones
In 2010 the Conservative candidate was Victoria Ayling, who is now the UKIP candidate for the constituency.
Sean Fear - you have to remember the context that we were withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan, and the nature of warfare is changing. The future is in air power inc drones, specialist forces, cyber and technological warfare, and budgetary priorities have shifted. Defence procurement was also left in a complete mess by the last government, the nimrod and aircraft carrier projects being the most obvious examples. I won't pretend Cameron has been outstanding on defence by any means, but at a time of unprecedented budgetary pressure he has done OK.
It is a cowardly claim made by those who know they have no real answer to principled behaviour and who, by their comments, show they have no understanding of the concept.
As for the GG, is anyone opening a betting market? I have one particular candidate in mind (and it is not Mr Salmond, for all that HM and Mr S get on well together).
How did your previous predictions turn out?
The fact that it appears to be a Survation poll fills me with some trepidation but as OGH pointed out earlier today it is immensely frustrating how little polling there has been in Scotland and we need to take what we can get.
I have consistently said that this was going to be closer than the polls were indicating or many on here thought. I have seen and heard nothing to suggest otherwise in recent times. A lead for Yes now and it really could be all over.
Can not imagine that Cameron would be the last Conservative PM for nearly a century if Scotland decides to leave.
Imagine if Scotland votes YES and the result of the 2015 general election is something like...
Lab 300
Con 280
LD 35
Why should Labour be given an opportunity of forming a government at all? Forty of its MPs will be representing a de facto foreign country, and will be constitutionally erased within 18 months ...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/janes-defense-caught-with-pants-down.html
And things in Venezuela going from bad to worse. Where are all those people on the left in this country who were cheering on Chavez and his so called reforms now? No one should be surprised at what is going on there right now, its a classic example of how extreme socialism ends in extreme failure:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/trapped-in-venezuela-looking-to-get-out.html
The alternative way to look at it is that Mr C didn't feel able to exert the leadership to get it past the Tory backbench MPs etc. as the only way to save the union for sure.
Either way, he gets the credit.
Yes to be a worse PM than Blair you would literally have to start a third world war, and given the way things are going Blair may end up shouldering the blame for that anyway.
I just happen to know that principle in politics is more important than the career of an individual MP – even if that MP happens to be me.
Things don't have to be this way. I'll be asking the voters of Essex to help me bring change. Let's do this together. Let's see if we can make history.
Thank you. I must now return to Clacton to prepare for what is to come.
http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/its-time-for-change/2801
And there is a problem in that MPs are elected for a parliamentary term, are they not? So Scottish Labour MPs could still stick around even after indyday if Mr Miliband thought it the lesser of two evils from his point of view. So having a Westminster GE straight after indy day resolves that.
First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).