"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
You can feel it in the air, NO are in turmoil, panic will ensue soon.
Open a window, and clear the room of whiskey fumes.
LOL you really are dumb, we are not talking about Ireland you TURNIP.
Chill Malkey.
Did you have a nice afternoon learning how to deep fry frozen fish fingers?
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
It's hugely significant on a basic economic level. In a hostile business environment, when 300 years of stability is the UK's USP, it is hard to see how a Scottish Partition will benefit any of us: Scots, Welsh or English. This is because it won't.
There will be a run on the pound, a deficit crisis, a surge in unemployment, and renewed recession - for everyone. Plus constitutional and legal chaos to prolong the pain.
Sure, after ten or fifteen years we might emerge happier and richer, and better friends, but before then it will be fairly horrible. For everyone.
Just like a divorce, only the lawyers will gain.
Should Scotland get independence, I will bet you at evens five hundred pounds that the UK will not enter recession within the following twelve months.
I'd be worried if I were OGH as regards his NO + < 80% turnout bet on both counts. The closer the contest becomes, the higher the turnout will be. As I suggested, betting on the sole pretext of a > 75% turnout looks like an altogether better proposition to me, but DYOR.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
That's the price that would always end up being paid for bribing the Kingdom of Scotland into a junior 'partnership' as part of empire building. It's bum luck we pay the price, but pay we shall.
The people bribed were hundreds of years ago, I don't think that has much bearing on Scotland wanting out now, even if narratively it helps. If they still saw benefits to the Union, the circumstances of its beginning would not be very significant to most I suspect, or are we finally going to pay the price for forcing Wales in under a bootheel and swordpoint? How much does that really factor in to independence concerns so many centuries later?
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
You can feel it in the air, NO are in turmoil, panic will ensue soon.
I do think they are panicking, as no matter how confident they might have been, the numbers are still too close for comfort when the enemy (that's you of course) are so motivated and intense, but as I've been assured by many on the Yes side that No have been in desperate chaos for the entire campaign without a single incident of intelligent decision making over the many years of preparation, your position of seeing the ensuing panicking according with mine makes me less sure of my own view, funnily enough. Hopefully No supporters will continue to push hard - no matter how many times someone cries wolf, cried panic, best to treat it as real.
kle4, their issue is their support is soft, they are getting down to diehards and people who are ignorant of the facts, they still have lots to lose. YES are not losing anyone , they are only gaining. They have no story to tell , no grassroots team and are depending on people they have had to pay and bus in from down south, not a good position to be in.
Hugh/SD Wrong, more people have said they have been telephone canvassed or leafleted by the NO campaign than Yes, though more have seen street halls or town hall meetings organised by YES
In the event that YES win's surely one possible scenario is that Parliament is extended until 2016?
If the 1935 Parliament can sit for ten years during WWII (including two changes of Prime Minister BTW) I don't see why the 2016 Parliament could sit for one year?
I do agree that Cameron's toast though, should Scotland leave the Union (as will Boy George of course) and whoever takes over as Prime Minister will probably want a strong mandate from the British people to be as tough as possible with Salmond in the negotiations.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
Don't be such a big girl's blouse. If Scotland goes off on its own so what? What difference is that going to make to the ordinary English person? They will not give a toss, most, probably the vast majority won't even notice the difference. Where the difference is noticed it will probably be for the good as investment, and so jobs, come south.
On here we get terribly excited about things that most people don't even notice. Now, the Rotherham scandal, that is something that people will notice and care about and care about far more than Scottish independence.
Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4) Back to the schemes DavdL much work to do.
Too late now. The No camp lost the ground war 9 months ago. While we were knocking doors the Unionists were smoking fat cigars and discussing how big their winning margin was going to be.
Some here have long pointed out how poor the No campaign was in comparison. To be largely met with zzz, or Braveheart! or Cybernat! type guff from ignorant southern Tories.
That said, I still think No will edge it.
Overall the No campaign has been far worse from top to bottom. But the biggest strategic mistake of the whole thing has been Salmond's position on currency.
Christ politics is exciting at the moment isn't it!
The only steady nerve is Ed Miliband, who is quietly, nerdily, but sure-footedly tip-toeing over the corpses and wreckage into Number 10...
Yes.
Then what?
Sane Labour supporters must be absolutely terrified. With the possible exception of Michael Foot 1983, I don't think there has been an opposition in my lifetime as ill-prepared for government.
And Ed Miliband is nothing like as serious figure as Michael Foot, plus he has the weakest Shadow Cabinet in living memory.
It is my understanding that there is a precedence within those four. PM > CoE > Foreign Secretary > Home Secretary.
I don't think there's an American style exact order of precedence, it's more a case of variation over time and depending on the circumstances and office holders of the day.
“Wouldn’t it be extraordinarily, tragically ironic if we didn’t get an in-out referendum in 2017 because a number of people — in order to prove how Eurosceptic they are — make parts of the Conservative party unelectable?”
Obviously it is far more interesting to speculate on such a dramatic development as YES winning. But it is still an unlikely scenario. Not impossible, but unlikely.
There is now only 3 weeks to go and YES have still not led in a single opinion poll for over a year - and that one was a 1 point lead and it was commissioned by the SNP.
In fact no poll in the last year has had a NO lead of less than 3%.
If we were going into a GE and all the polls were showing one side winning and the other losing - with pollsters disagreeing whether the gap was 4% or 14% we would say the chances are very high that the party in power will win.
The question is - what will happen in the next 3 weeks to convince voters which haven't convinced them in the last year of campaigning?
Sure a YES is possible but there is no reason to think its any better than the 15-20% chance indicated by the odds.
It's not an election with two familiar parties but a referendum with one option much less familiar than the other. So No will lead and then lose its lead as various people get round to checking out the arguments (or see them etc.) and making up their minds, some very late. Hence the slow process of erosion of the No lead. Only to be expected. Further evidence is that it is reflected in the No campaign strategy of discouraging debate and engagement (e.g. in few public meetings, closed meetings, no questioning by proles of the pols, etc.).
Question is how much more erosion there will be in the next 2-3 weeks (bearing in mind postal voting has started).
Not too badly thanks. Markets have been pretty frustrating this year with the lack of volatility, but the recent strengthening of USD has been a nice move to catch. Should be getting a correction in the markets from next week into about mid-November I think at this stage. If the S&P500 corrects to the 1750-1770 level as I hope, then it'll be a good buy there (for a year or a bit more into early 2016) as the capital is starting to shift into the US and away from Europe. I suspect that we will see Draghi play the eurozone's last card in QE, as everyone except Germany of the big countries scream for it and finally Merkel will be forced to give way to the collective weight of everyone else including France as the key swing influence aligning themselves with the south. I expect that this will prop up the eurozone into late 2015.
When the sovereign debt crisis really takes off from late next year, am expecting that there will be a great move higher in gold to catch, not because of any hyperinflation, but as a hedge against unstable government everywhere. And the money pouring out of the bond market (higher interest rates) has got to go somewhere. Its not going to head for the hills in cash straight away, it'll head into stocks like it did going into 1929, and I think it'll take a lot of people by surprise when the US stockmarket takes off higher. Its clear from the market action of this year that the US and Europe are on different cycles - with Europe being well ahead of the US. Besides which, interest rates never have bottomed in history, and the stockmarket topped out at the same time, as the initial capital flow out of the bond markets first goes into stocks, so I think we'll see a combination of rising interest rates / rising stockmarket. Study the collapse of Rome and all the great powers in history - they're always the last economy to fall - things collapse from the outside in, not the inside out as many US haters would like to think.
As for gold, I want to see another flush out of the weak longs, and the price fall from the present c.$1300 down to under $1000 - $950 would be ideal depending on the technical setup to get long. Then I think it could rise slowly at first, before climaxing in a dramatic blowoff top to around $5000, but most of the rise will happen at the end, similar to what happened in the move up to the $850 high in January 1980.
Things are certainly beginning to warm up and get seriously interesting though. Its been a much longer wait than I ever expected, but the wait will be more than worthwhile when all the drama ahead occurs. Its going to be one heck of a ride. And I for one feel immensely priveleged to have a ring side seat at this epochal moment in world history.
Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4) Back to the schemes DavdL much work to do.
He needs to get out of Morningside
I have never canvassed Morningside Malcolm or indeed anywhere else in Edinburgh. You don't half talk some rubbish.
It's Whitfield,Fintry,Douglas and the like that's giving you the heebie jeebies. People that rarely or never vote are suddenly certainly up for this one.
Correct.
As I just said, I'll give everybody a big, whopping clue: turnout.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
£50 at evens that he doesn't (see below). It is absolutely key to his approach that the BT front man is Brownite labour: a choice which deprives him of any credit for saving the Union, the payoff being that he can wash his hands of losing it.
The possibility of nine Tory-defence by elections is making me reach for the smelling salts.
Were this to prove to be the case Cameron, or probably a new leader, would need to cobble together a deal with UKIP in double quick time. Otherwise the Tories might as well concede next year's GE in advance.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
That's the price that would always end up being paid for bribing the Kingdom of Scotland into a junior 'partnership' as part of empire building. It's bum luck we pay the price, but pay we shall.
The people bribed were hundreds of years ago, I don't think that has much bearing on Scotland wanting out now, even if narratively it helps. If they still saw benefits to the Union, the circumstances of its beginning would not be very significant to most I suspect, or are we finally going to pay the price for forcing Wales in under a bootheel and swordpoint?
We completed the job with Wales, turning it into a series of English shires sharing English law etc, it was an extension of the Wessex conquest of the rest of England. Scotland was left with its own legal system etc, and the fact that no plonker in a position to do something since the end of Empire spotted that a federal solution was the only way to stop thus inevitability is lamentable
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
You can feel it in the air, NO are in turmoil, panic will ensue soon.
Open a window, and clear the room of whiskey fumes.
LOL you really are dumb, we are not talking about Ireland you TURNIP.
Chill Malkey.
Did you have a nice afternoon learning how to deep fry frozen fish fingers?
Had a wonderful afternoon , cooked fresh sea bream with a lettuce and pea stew. Few glasses of a nice red and a wonderful vanilla mousse with fresh berries , syrup and apple crisps. Have to say my filleting and cooking were fairly awesome. I have had a few refreshments since returning but in good order. Boss is insisting I desist and get to bed.
The whole Yes campaign has been just as pathetic, 'vote Yes and we will be Cuba on steroids and never will we have to even look at an evil Tory again!' Yet, still they are going to lose if even Survation shows them 6 points behind despite Salmond's great debate 'triumph!'
I don't think this has been posted. From the Mail, an expanded explanation of the Party's position regarding Mr Lord and the by-election
But a UKIP spokesman said Mr Lord 'has never been the by-election candidate for Clacton'. He was however the party's candidate in the next election.
‘By-election rules determine that the party is entitled to start with a clean slate of nominations for Prospective Parliamentary Candidates, with the final elected candidate being decided by the National Executive Committee.
‘There will not be a hustings in these circumstances as the immediacy of selection that a by-election warrants permits, in accordance with the party's constitution and sensible procedure, for the National Executive Committee to overrule and finitely determine who should represent the party for the campaign.
‘Roger Lord is a committed member of Ukip and we appreciate his contribution to the development of the party locally and hope that he understands the decision of the NEC to support Douglas Carswell in the defence of his seat, as a Ukip candidate.’
Question is how much more erosion there will be in the next 2-3 weeks (bearing in mind postal voting has started).
One glimmer of sunlight for No is that voting has already begun while they hold the lead. This means that Yes will have to win by an even bigger margin on the day to make up the deficit.
Given how much senior people on HS2 and communications directors in government get paid, how much should the senior negotiating team for rUK in the Scottish independence negotiations get paid. We want a good deal, and in place civil servants and politicos will have other duties to oversee at the same time.
The possibility of nine Tory-defence by elections is making me reach for the smelling salts.
It's amazing how many problems which have been festering quietly for the Tories could explode into life so dramatically. As Hugh says, all Ed M has to do is not trip over the wreckage to get into No. 10. Uninspiring, and it rather undermines Carswell's condemnation of career politicos and their attitudes and approach (because Ed M will prove how much it will work), but he knows what he needs to do and, more importantly, what he needs to do to avoid messing up. As SeanT says, his real vulnerability is really only Scotland. If that is taken out of his hands, suddenly he needs to do more than tip toe over wreckage and start sifting through his own, and there he might trip up.
Evening all and on thread the by-election in Newcastle must be Labour's for the taking.
On Clacton, have any Tory councillors defected yet? I gather the existing UKIP candidate does not intend to withdraw according to twitter.
On IndyRef, interesting poll tonight. OGH wondered why there haven't been more polls. I suspect because many pollsters realised they are not getting to the core of the voting electorate and their polls have not be representative of the current Scottish electorate.
Waiting for my postal vote to arrive. Several colleagues in Rotary have already received theirs and sent them back. Rotary club splits 2-1 for NO.
Once again I am starting to think YES will win, just. Whoever wins, it looks like being within the margin of error and if it is a small NO win, Scotland will be plunged into ongoing uncertainty.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
Mm, I suppose the RoI was roughly the same size as Scotland but counted as a smaller fraction (~20% if quick calcs serve correctly) when it left.
I'd be worried if I were OGH as regards his NO + < 80% turnout bet on both counts. The closer the contest becomes, the higher the turnout will be. As I suggested, betting on the sole pretext of a > 75% turnout looks like an altogether better proposition to me, but DYOR.
I agree and said as much on that thread. Despite Malcolm's keyboard fantasies the increasing recognition of the importance of the vote and the need to make it is on both sides of the fence. The closer it seems the higher the turnout will be in my opinion. Both votes are hardening from what I am seeing.
Malcolm and I don't agree on much but there is no doubt that we are in untested waters here for the pollsters as well as the rest of us. A lot of people are going to vote who don't usually bother. I really have no doubt about that.
Christ politics is exciting at the moment isn't it!
The only steady nerve is Ed Miliband, who is quietly, nerdily, but sure-footedly tip-toeing over the corpses and wreckage into Number 10...
Yes.
Then what?
Sane Labour supporters must be absolutely terrified. With the possible exception of Michael Foot 1983, I don't think there has been an opposition in my lifetime as ill-prepared for government.
And Ed Miliband is nothing like as serious figure as Michael Foot, plus he has the weakest Shadow Cabinet in living memory.
I guess we'll have to clean up the smouldering rubble and on we go.
Fortunately a Prime Minister like Ed Miliband, calm, analytical and pragmatic is exactly the right man for the job.
Question is how much more erosion there will be in the next 2-3 weeks (bearing in mind postal voting has started).
One glimmer of sunlight for No is that voting has already begun while they hold the lead. This means that Yes will have to win by an even bigger margin on the day to make up the deficit.
Quite, but the demographics (as someone said somewhere, maybe on Scot goes Pop) are pretty No-heavy for postal voters, so it may make that much less difference anyway.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
53: 47 with Survation doesn't seem that bad. Better Together just need to keep calm and carry on.
Been a long long time since they were calm
Being nervous, without panicking, is being sensible.
I've been in the unpleasant position of discovering my opponents are better-organised than I had thought. I think you underestimate your opponents, as well.
Peter Bone Nadine Dorries Andrew Bridgen Roger Gale Andrew Rosindell Angela Watkinson Gerald Howarth Andrew Turner / Stewart Jackson
Will the gang of 8 do what the gang of 4 couldn't do after the falklands war?
As I recall, nearly all the SDP defectors lost their seats in the 1983 election and were never heard of again. The one who forced a by election lost it, if my memory serves me correctly.
and everyone forgets the one Tory to SDP defector (Brocklebank Fowler IIRC) and that worked out well didn't it!
Christ politics is exciting at the moment isn't it!
The only steady nerve is Ed Miliband, who is quietly, nerdily, but sure-footedly tip-toeing over the corpses and wreckage into Number 10...
Ed's deafening silence over Rotherham.
No clamour for a judge led enquiry.
Now why would that be?
Because there's a certain segment of the politically active Muslim vote that already looks on Jews with suspicion and would be furious if he spoke out against their "brothers"?
Evening all and on thread the by-election in Newcastle must be Labour's for the taking.
On Clacton, have any Tory councillors defected yet? I gather the existing UKIP candidate does not intend to withdraw according to twitter.
On IndyRef, interesting poll tonight. OGH wondered why there haven't been more polls. I suspect because many pollsters realised they are not getting to the core of the voting electorate and their polls have not be representative of the current Scottish electorate.
Waiting for my postal vote to arrive. Several colleagues in Rotary have already received theirs and sent them back. Rotary club splits 2-1 for NO.
Once again I am starting to think YES will win, just. Whoever wins, it looks like being within the margin of error and if it is a small NO win, Scotland will be plunged into ongoing uncertainty.
No chance of a LAB win in N Jesmond if they couldnt overturn the LDs in 2011 when anger at them entering the coalition was at its highest will not happen tonight
T are we finally going to pay the price for forcing Wales in under a bootheel and swordpoint?
We completed the job with Wales, turning it into a series of English shires sharing English law etc, it was an extension of the Wessex conquest of the rest of England. Scotland was left with its own legal system etc, and the fact that no plonker in a position to do something since the end of Empire spotted that a federal solution was the only way to stop thus inevitability is lamentable
It's like I've always said, at least the Welsh know their place - no wait, I'm just kidding Wales, don't go!
Christ politics is exciting at the moment isn't it!
The only steady nerve is Ed Miliband, who is quietly, nerdily, but sure-footedly tip-toeing over the corpses and wreckage into Number 10...
Yes.
Then what?
Sane Labour supporters must be absolutely terrified. With the possible exception of Michael Foot 1983, I don't think there has been an opposition in my lifetime as ill-prepared for government.
And? I really think you underestimate the ability of the political leaderships to muddle through just about well enough even without a coherent plan or authority, and how much they are not terrified of such a scenario in the slightest, because even the 'sane' Labour supporters worried about such things will think a completely ill prepared Labour government would be better than a prepared Tory one. If they didn't they wouldn't be intense enough supporters to actually join and remain within the party.
Hugh/SD Wrong, more people have said they have been telephone canvassed or leafleted by the NO campaign than Yes, though more have seen street halls or town hall meetings organised by YES
Ho ho. Getting phone canvassed from a Labour call centre in Newcastle or Liverpool? Good luck with that!
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
53: 47 with Survation doesn't seem that bad. Better Together just need to keep calm and carry on.
Been a long long time since they were calm
Being nervous, without panicking, is being sensible.
I've been in the unpleasant position of discovering my opponents are better-organised than I had thought. I think you underestimate your opponents, as well.
Agreed Sean. I am not panicking and I don't know anybody on the BT side who is. What we recognise is that this is going to require a major effort and nothing can be taken for granted. It is having a galvanising effect which is surely a good thing.
The whole Yes campaign has been just as pathetic, 'vote Yes and we will be Cuba on steroids and never will we have to even look at an evil Tory again!' Yet, still they are going to lose if even Survation shows them 6 points behind despite Salmond's great debate 'triumph!'
Nonsense. The Yes campaign has been brilliant. Grassroots, positive and energising.
You don't have to be a Yes campaigner to see that. You don't even need to live in Scotland. Heck, you don't even need to be a Scot! Just a visit to the country would give you a clue.
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
It would be amazing if there were up to eight, and if they did it in a steady drip drip trickle. As much as I like Douglas Carswell, I can't believe for a moment that no other Tory MP's amongst the defection candidates didn't know about events in advance of today.
Christ politics is exciting at the moment isn't it!
The only steady nerve is Ed Miliband, who is quietly, nerdily, but sure-footedly tip-toeing over the corpses and wreckage into Number 10...
Ed's deafening silence over Rotherham.
No clamour for a judge led enquiry.
Now why would that be?
Because there's a certain segment of the politically active Muslim vote that already looks on Jews with suspicion and would be furious if he spoke out against their "brothers"?
I don't think this has been posted. From the Mail, an expanded explanation of the Party's position regarding Mr Lord and the by-election
But a UKIP spokesman said Mr Lord 'has never been the by-election candidate for Clacton'. He was however the party's candidate in the next election.
‘By-election rules determine that the party is entitled to start with a clean slate of nominations for Prospective Parliamentary Candidates, with the final elected candidate being decided by the National Executive Committee.
‘There will not be a hustings in these circumstances as the immediacy of selection that a by-election warrants permits, in accordance with the party's constitution and sensible procedure, for the National Executive Committee to overrule and finitely determine who should represent the party for the campaign.
‘Roger Lord is a committed member of Ukip and we appreciate his contribution to the development of the party locally and hope that he understands the decision of the NEC to support Douglas Carswell in the defence of his seat, as a Ukip candidate.’
Jesus as if a high profile defector from any party wouldn't stand in the same seat they won before...
As I said earlier, as someone who wants ukip to have the best chance of winning wherever they stand , if I were the candidate for Dagenham and Rainham, where ukip are 20/1 and Jon Cruddas defected from labour how could I not give way knowing we'd go from a 5% chance of winning, to a 50%+ chance?"
Mr Lord will surely be given another seat, probably as up winnable as the one he thought he was going to lose to Carswell yesterday
And? I really think you underestimate the ability of the political leaderships to muddle through just about well enough even without a coherent plan or authority, and how much they are not terrified of such a scenario in the slightest, because even the 'sane' Labour supporters worried about such things will think a completely ill prepared Labour government would be better than a prepared Tory one. If they didn't they wouldn't be intense enough supporters to actually join and remain within the party.
I don't think the Peter Mandelsons of this world are as complacent as that.
I agree, though, that sane Labour supporters are very rare.
"Controversial academic Julia Gasper is among the candidates in the upcoming Quarry and Risinghurst by-election for Oxford City Council.
It will take place on Thursday, September 18, triggered by the resignation of former Labour city councillor Laurence Baxter, who has moved to the Czech Republic for work.
Dr Gasper, who has in the past linked homosexuality with paedophilia and was previously a UKIP candidate for the same ward in 2012, is standing for the English Democrats, while Katharine Harborne is standing for the Conservatives. "
T are we finally going to pay the price for forcing Wales in under a bootheel and swordpoint?
We completed the job with Wales, turning it into a series of English shires sharing English law etc, it was an extension of the Wessex conquest of the rest of England. Scotland was left with its own legal system etc, and the fact that no plonker in a position to do something since the end of Empire spotted that a federal solution was the only way to stop thus inevitability is lamentable
It's like I've always said, at least the Welsh know their place - no wait, I'm just kidding Wales, don't go!
I'm no happier being under the yoke of Wessex as a proud East Anglian than the Welsh are
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
To put tonight's Survation in perspective, on July 11th 2014 Survation was exactly the same 53-47 to No. So after all the bluster of the debates and 1 Darling and 1 Salmond victory we are back to where we were before, they made zero, nada difference either way! http://wingsoverscotland.com/sprinting-for-the-line/
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
Evening all and on thread the by-election in Newcastle must be Labour's for the taking.
On Clacton, have any Tory councillors defected yet? I gather the existing UKIP candidate does not intend to withdraw according to twitter.
On IndyRef, interesting poll tonight. OGH wondered why there haven't been more polls. I suspect because many pollsters realised they are not getting to the core of the voting electorate and their polls have not be representative of the current Scottish electorate.
Waiting for my postal vote to arrive. Several colleagues in Rotary have already received theirs and sent them back. Rotary club splits 2-1 for NO.
Once again I am starting to think YES will win, just. Whoever wins, it looks like being within the margin of error and if it is a small NO win, Scotland will be plunged into ongoing uncertainty.
Withdraw from what? He was never selected to fight a by election for which the selection of the candidate is in the power of the UKIP NEC. What happens to his General Election candidacy I know not but given it is rumoured that he has threatened to defect to the Tories to attempt to get the candidacy to fight Carswell in the by-election and spent the afternoon spouting off to the media instead of calmly liaising with his Party HQ, I suspect there may be an extraordinary meeting of the local association down the line
The possibility of nine Tory-defence by elections is making me reach for the smelling salts.
Were this to prove to be the case Cameron, or probably a new leader, would need to cobble together a deal with UKIP in double quick time. Otherwise the Tories might as well concede next year's GE in advance.
But surely LAB defectors to UKIP less likely to vote UKIP in this scenario
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
The possibility of nine Tory-defence by elections is making me reach for the smelling salts.
Were this to prove to be the case Cameron, or probably a new leader, would need to cobble together a deal with UKIP in double quick time. Otherwise the Tories might as well concede next year's GE in advance.
But surely LAB defectors to UKIP less likely to vote UKIP in this scenario
Was brilliant in Stockholm last weekend, ITU triathlon in Gamla Stan (the old town) with a close up view of the Brownlee brothers, and there is a general election there a fortnight on Sunday (14th September). Got handed a leaflet by the moderate party (Reinfeldt's bloc) and a sweet even though I hardly understood a word of it. Still the Swedish blonde girl who handed me the sweet was as beautiful as they come outside the Royal Palace!
From the opinion polls there it looks as though the Social Democrats are coming back to power in some leftish coalition. Worryingly the far right Swedish Democrats party are polling around 9% (well up from 5% last time) with everyone else wanting nothing to do with them quite rightly.
Just to put you straight since you have about as much clue re Swedish politics as your never ending squeals of worldwide economic doom-that never come to pass.
The Swedish Democrats are no further right wing than UKIP are in the UK. The political centre of gravity here is just substantially to the left of the UK, therefore the Swedish Democrats appear more extreme. The now totally useless Moderate party, who's latest wheeze is to up asylum numbers to 100,000 (over 1% of Sweden's total population this year-and hike taxes to pay for it), have run their electoral course and Sweden will revert to it's normal Social Democratic path. Still fiscally quite sound, and probably likely to form a government with the sadly bonkers Green party and some support from the more centrist parties in the current coalition. I doubt if the 'left party', will get a look in.
By the way, is Stuart Dickson in Scotland now campaigning for a yes vote, (I assume he has a vote in the referendum?), or here in Sweden trying to save his beloved Fredrik Reinfeldt's ass? Can't be doing both surely?
Evening all and on thread the by-election in Newcastle must be Labour's for the taking.
On Clacton, have any Tory councillors defected yet? I gather the existing UKIP candidate does not intend to withdraw according to twitter.
On IndyRef, interesting poll tonight. OGH wondered why there haven't been more polls. I suspect because many pollsters realised they are not getting to the core of the voting electorate and their polls have not be representative of the current Scottish electorate.
Waiting for my postal vote to arrive. Several colleagues in Rotary have already received theirs and sent them back. Rotary club splits 2-1 for NO.
Once again I am starting to think YES will win, just. Whoever wins, it looks like being within the margin of error and if it is a small NO win, Scotland will be plunged into ongoing uncertainty.
The pollsters are going to look like complete fools once the votes are counted. Or complete knaves. Or both.
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.
“Wouldn’t it be extraordinarily, tragically ironic if we didn’t get an in-out referendum in 2017 because a number of people — in order to prove how Eurosceptic they are — make parts of the Conservative party unelectable?”
Who cares?
The only reason the SNP are even close to winning their referendum is that they are the Government of Scotland. Same went for the PQ in Quebec.
In any case, who ever said there wouldn't be a second referendum, say, over the terms, EU-style?
Word is speading in Clacton as I said earlier: Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h Word in Clacton is Con councillors are poised to follow Douglas Carswell and defect to Ukip. Purple is the new Blue
Hugh If I visited the Highlands I could see the beautiful Scottish countryside but that does not mean I would come into contact with the Yes camp. I have seen enough of their pathetic tweets, whinging and pathological hatred of anything they can add the expletive 'Tory' too to know how dreadful it has been. This despite the fact 500,000 Scots voted Tory in 2010
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.
Just saying....
3 weeks of relentless 80s pop music references? ;-)
Hugh If I visited the Highlands I could see the beautiful Scottish countryside but that does not mean I would come into contact with the Yes camp. I have seen enough of their pathetic tweets, whinging and pathological hatred of anything they can add the expletive 'Tory' too to know how dreadful it has been. This despite the fact 500,000 Scots voted Tory in 2010
Hahaha, I'm sorry if I sound like MalcolmG but you Just. Do. Not. Get. It.
The whole Yes campaign has been just as pathetic, 'vote Yes and we will be Cuba on steroids and never will we have to even look at an evil Tory again!' Yet, still they are going to lose if even Survation shows them 6 points behind despite Salmond's great debate 'triumph!'
Nonsense. The Yes campaign has been brilliant. Grassroots, positive and energising.
You don't have to be a Yes campaigner to see that. You don't even need to live in Scotland. Heck, you don't even need to be a Scot! Just a visit to the country would give you a clue.
Agreed. Spending the majority of my time in Aberdeen - which is a strong No centre - I have been continually impressed with the strength and size of the Yes ground campaign.
Personally I am hoping for Yes although I cannot vote myself. I do believe an Independent Scotland can thrive and would be pleased to see them given the chance.
But as with Clacton, I refer back to my previous comments about West Ham support and always being disappointed. My heart wants a Yes win but whether that will happen or not I have not a clue.
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
53: 47 with Survation doesn't seem that bad. Better Together just need to keep calm and carry on.
Been a long long time since they were calm
Being nervous, without panicking, is being sensible.
I've been in the unpleasant position of discovering my opponents are better-organised than I had thought. I think you underestimate your opponents, as well.
Agreed Sean. I am not panicking and I don't know anybody on the BT side who is. What we recognise is that this is going to require a major effort and nothing can be taken for granted. It is having a galvanising effect which is surely a good thing.
Fight every election as if it's neck and neck.
The worst example of complacency i recall was Sands End in 2002. I did mutual aid, and the local Conservatives thought they'd won by 2 pm, and threw a party. By 5 pm, they were completely pissed, and ridiculed my idea that we should be door-knocking. They lost by 7 votes.
The whole Yes campaign has been just as pathetic, 'vote Yes and we will be Cuba on steroids and never will we have to even look at an evil Tory again!' Yet, still they are going to lose if even Survation shows them 6 points behind despite Salmond's great debate 'triumph!'
Nonsense. The Yes campaign has been brilliant. Grassroots, positive and energising.
You don't have to be a Yes campaigner to see that. You don't even need to live in Scotland. Heck, you don't even need to be a Scot! Just a visit to the country would give you a clue.
They don't get Scotland. And they show not even the remotest sign of wanting to get Scotland.
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.
Just saying....
3 weeks of relentless 80s pop music references? ;-)
Unlikely.
My stint as guest editor will cover the aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and the by-election in Clacton.
As has been noted before, NOTHING MAJOR EVER HAPPENS WHEN MIKE GOES ON HOLIDAY.
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.
Just saying....
3 weeks of relentless 80s pop music references? ;-)
Unlikely.
My stint as guest editor will cover the aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and the by-election in Clacton.
As has been noted before, NOTHING MAJOR EVER HAPPENS WHEN MIKE GOES ON HOLIDAY.
Who say's it will only be the Clacton by election?
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
53: 47 with Survation doesn't seem that bad. Better Together just need to keep calm and carry on.
Been a long long time since they were calm
Being nervous, without panicking, is being sensible.
I've been in the unpleasant position of discovering my opponents are better-organised than I had thought. I think you underestimate your opponents, as well.
Agreed Sean. I am not panicking and I don't know anybody on the BT side who is. What we recognise is that this is going to require a major effort and nothing can be taken for granted. It is having a galvanising effect which is surely a good thing.
Well said, nervousness is good.
I always remember that anecdote about David Niven, the actor, and famously entertaining raconteur.
Apparently Michael Parkinson found Niven puking in his BBC dressing room prior to a big interview. Parky naturally inquired as to whether Niven was OK, and Niven turned around and said "Oh I'm fine, if I wasn't throwing up I'd be worried, it would mean I wasn't scared, and then I would be rubbish on TV".
Adrenalin WORKS.
Equally I remember my one and only appearance on the Richard and Judy show (when they were famous, and when I was publishing my lovelife memoir). As the director said "Roll Cameras" I saw that Richard Madeley was trembling - his hands were literally shaking, such was the terror of live national TV. Even for a man who'd been doing it for ten years with great success! The terror ensured he performed well.
Read across for elections and referendums?
Good luck.
I remember years ago that I had an insolvency case where I had instructed a QC who is now a very senior judge. He had originally thought there was no case and I persuaded him otherwise at a consultation.
On the day of the appeal I turned up in Edinburgh to find this man twisting himself around the furniture, unable to sit still and with a tremor in his voice. I wondered what on earth I had done.
And then he stood up in the court. And was brilliant. And won. I will frankly never be close to being as good as that because I just don't get that nervous. It is a fault. Adrenalin is weird stuff.
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.
It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.
He probably think it's no big deal.
From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.
Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
53: 47 with Survation doesn't seem that bad. Better Together just need to keep calm and carry on.
Been a long long time since they were calm
Being nervous, without panicking, is being sensible.
I've been in the unpleasant position of discovering my opponents are better-organised than I had thought. I think you underestimate your opponents, as well.
Agreed Sean. I am not panicking and I don't know anybody on the BT side who is. What we recognise is that this is going to require a major effort and nothing can be taken for granted. It is having a galvanising effect which is surely a good thing.
Fight every election as if it's neck and neck.
The worst example of complacency i recall was Sands End in 2002. I did mutual aid, and the local Conservatives thought they'd won by 2 pm, and threw a party. By 5 pm, they were completely pissed, and ridiculed my idea that we should be door-knocking. They lost by 7 votes.
Unionist complacency has always been one of our ace cards. It is the gift that just keeps on giving and giving and giving.
"Posh students and academics. Liberal, bit Righty and loyal."
Maybe, Hugh. But that would have been fairly constant since last time, I suppose.
When the evening started, everybody was saying that it "was Labour´s for the taking." Instead, the Lib Dems have safely seen off the challenge. It seems to me that in Newscastle, and in some other places as well, the Lib Dems are not just lying down and waiting to be carved up.
Word is speading in Clacton as I said earlier: Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h Word in Clacton is Con councillors are poised to follow Douglas Carswell and defect to Ukip. Purple is the new Blue
Make up of Tendring DC
Conservative (33 members) Labour (9 members) Independent (6 members) Tendring First (6 members) Holland-on-Sea Residents Group (3 members) Liberal-Democrat (2 members) Other (1 member)
How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.
Between one more to eight more apparently
If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.
Just saying....
Excellent.
Best brush up on my Historical knowledge.
Or spend 3 weeks in Cineworld!!!
I've written and published a few threads written at Cineworld Sheffield
The whole Yes campaign has been just as pathetic, 'vote Yes and we will be Cuba on steroids and never will we have to even look at an evil Tory again!' Yet, still they are going to lose if even Survation shows them 6 points behind despite Salmond's great debate 'triumph!'
Nonsense. The Yes campaign has been brilliant. Grassroots, positive and energising.
You don't have to be a Yes campaigner to see that. You don't even need to live in Scotland. Heck, you don't even need to be a Scot! Just a visit to the country would give you a clue.
They don't get Scotland. And they show not even the remotest sign of wanting to get Scotland.
Only Swedish public school boys genuinely get Scotland. It's that simple.
The key tonight is that Survation shows NO progress for Yes since July, zero, nada. This is all over bar the shouting now folks, Salmond needed two big debate wins to win the referendum, he only got the 1. Around 45% or so, a little more, a little less, will indeed vote Yes, but that has been the trend the entire year, and Quebec voted only 51-49 in 1995 to stay in Canada and 19 years later is still there
Comments
Did you have a nice afternoon learning how to deep fry frozen fish fingers?
If the 1935 Parliament can sit for ten years during WWII (including two changes of Prime Minister BTW) I don't see why the 2016 Parliament could sit for one year?
I do agree that Cameron's toast though, should Scotland leave the Union (as will Boy George of course) and whoever takes over as Prime Minister will probably want a strong mandate from the British people to be as tough as possible with Salmond in the negotiations.
On here we get terribly excited about things that most people don't even notice. Now, the Rotherham scandal, that is something that people will notice and care about and care about far more than Scottish independence.
Then what?
Sane Labour supporters must be absolutely terrified. With the possible exception of Michael Foot 1983, I don't think there has been an opposition in my lifetime as ill-prepared for government.
And Ed Miliband is nothing like as serious figure as Michael Foot, plus he has the weakest Shadow Cabinet in living memory.
“Wouldn’t it be extraordinarily, tragically ironic if we didn’t get an in-out referendum in 2017 because a number of people — in order to prove how Eurosceptic they are — make parts of the Conservative party unelectable?”
Question is how much more erosion there will be in the next 2-3 weeks (bearing in mind postal voting has started).
When the sovereign debt crisis really takes off from late next year, am expecting that there will be a great move higher in gold to catch, not because of any hyperinflation, but as a hedge against unstable government everywhere. And the money pouring out of the bond market (higher interest rates) has got to go somewhere. Its not going to head for the hills in cash straight away, it'll head into stocks like it did going into 1929, and I think it'll take a lot of people by surprise when the US stockmarket takes off higher. Its clear from the market action of this year that the US and Europe are on different cycles - with Europe being well ahead of the US. Besides which, interest rates never have bottomed in history, and the stockmarket topped out at the same time, as the initial capital flow out of the bond markets first goes into stocks, so I think we'll see a combination of rising interest rates / rising stockmarket. Study the collapse of Rome and all the great powers in history - they're always the last economy to fall - things collapse from the outside in, not the inside out as many US haters would like to think.
As for gold, I want to see another flush out of the weak longs, and the price fall from the present c.$1300 down to under $1000 - $950 would be ideal depending on the technical setup to get long. Then I think it could rise slowly at first, before climaxing in a dramatic blowoff top to around $5000, but most of the rise will happen at the end, similar to what happened in the move up to the $850 high in January 1980.
Things are certainly beginning to warm up and get seriously interesting though. Its been a much longer wait than I ever expected, but the wait will be more than worthwhile when all the drama ahead occurs. Its going to be one heck of a ride. And I for one feel immensely priveleged to have a ring side seat at this epochal moment in world history.
Between one more to eight more apparently
No clamour for a judge led enquiry.
Now why would that be?
Punters beware!
Scotland was left with its own legal system etc, and the fact that no plonker in a position to do something since the end of Empire spotted that a federal solution was the only way to stop thus inevitability is lamentable
I have had a few refreshments since returning but in good order. Boss is insisting I desist and get to bed.
Is he a likely defector
But a UKIP spokesman said Mr Lord 'has never been the by-election candidate for Clacton'. He was however the party's candidate in the next election.
‘By-election rules determine that the party is entitled to start with a clean slate of nominations for Prospective Parliamentary Candidates, with the final elected candidate being decided by the National Executive Committee.
‘There will not be a hustings in these circumstances as the immediacy of selection that a by-election warrants permits, in accordance with the party's constitution and sensible procedure, for the National Executive Committee to overrule and finitely determine who should represent the party for the campaign.
‘Roger Lord is a committed member of Ukip and we appreciate his contribution to the development of the party locally and hope that he understands the decision of the NEC to support Douglas Carswell in the defence of his seat, as a Ukip candidate.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736598/Tory-MP-Douglas-Carswell-defects-UKIP-resigns-Parliament-spark-crunch-Essex-byelection.html
It was wivvin the rules guvnor........
On Clacton, have any Tory councillors defected yet? I gather the existing UKIP candidate does not intend to withdraw according to twitter.
On IndyRef, interesting poll tonight. OGH wondered why there haven't been more polls. I suspect because many pollsters realised they are not getting to the core of the voting electorate and their polls have not be representative of the current Scottish electorate.
Waiting for my postal vote to arrive. Several colleagues in Rotary have already received theirs and sent them back. Rotary club splits 2-1 for NO.
Once again I am starting to think YES will win, just. Whoever wins, it looks like being within the margin of error and if it is a small NO win, Scotland will be plunged into ongoing uncertainty.
Malcolm and I don't agree on much but there is no doubt that we are in untested waters here for the pollsters as well as the rest of us. A lot of people are going to vote who don't usually bother. I really have no doubt about that.
Fortunately a Prime Minister like Ed Miliband, calm, analytical and pragmatic is exactly the right man for the job.
I've been in the unpleasant position of discovering my opponents are better-organised than I had thought. I think you underestimate your opponents, as well.
You don't have to be a Yes campaigner to see that. You don't even need to live in Scotland. Heck, you don't even need to be a Scot! Just a visit to the country would give you a clue.
North Jesmond (Newcastle upon Tyne) vote:
LDEM - 711
LAB - 320
CON - 117
UKIP - 112
GRN - 94
As I said earlier, as someone who wants ukip to have the best chance of winning wherever they stand , if I were the candidate for Dagenham and Rainham, where ukip are 20/1 and Jon Cruddas defected from labour how could I not give way knowing we'd go from a 5% chance of winning, to a 50%+ chance?"
Mr Lord will surely be given another seat, probably as up winnable as the one he thought he was going to lose to Carswell yesterday
I agree, though, that sane Labour supporters are very rare.
LD 711 Lab 320 Con 117 UKIP 112 Green 94
It will take place on Thursday, September 18, triggered by the resignation of former Labour city councillor Laurence Baxter, who has moved to the Czech Republic for work.
Dr Gasper, who has in the past linked homosexuality with paedophilia and was previously a UKIP candidate for the same ward in 2012, is standing for the English Democrats, while Katharine Harborne is standing for the Conservatives. "
http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/yourtown/oxford/11431367.Outspoken_academic_to_battle_by_election/
NATO Diplomats Give Russians Geography Lessons on Twitter
http://www.newsweek.com/nato-diplomats-give-russians-geography-lessons-twitter-267400
http://wingsoverscotland.com/sprinting-for-the-line/
Therefore Cameron cant win either way
The Swedish Democrats are no further right wing than UKIP are in the UK. The political centre of gravity here is just substantially to the left of the UK, therefore the Swedish Democrats appear more extreme. The now totally useless Moderate party, who's latest wheeze is to up asylum numbers to 100,000 (over 1% of Sweden's total population this year-and hike taxes to pay for it), have run their electoral course and Sweden will revert to it's normal Social Democratic path. Still fiscally quite sound, and probably likely to form a government with the sadly bonkers Green party and some support from the more centrist parties in the current coalition. I doubt if the 'left party', will get a look in.
By the way, is Stuart Dickson in Scotland now campaigning for a yes vote, (I assume he has a vote in the referendum?), or here in Sweden trying to save his beloved Fredrik Reinfeldt's ass?
Can't be doing both surely?
Just saying....
The only reason the SNP are even close to winning their referendum is that they are the Government of Scotland. Same went for the PQ in Quebec.
In any case, who ever said there wouldn't be a second referendum, say, over the terms, EU-style?
Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire 1h
Word in Clacton is Con councillors are poised to follow Douglas Carswell and defect to Ukip. Purple is the new Blue
Equally bad for Labour
Personally I am hoping for Yes although I cannot vote myself. I do believe an Independent Scotland can thrive and would be pleased to see them given the chance.
But as with Clacton, I refer back to my previous comments about West Ham support and always being disappointed. My heart wants a Yes win but whether that will happen or not I have not a clue.
Best brush up on my Historical knowledge.
Or spend 3 weeks in Cineworld!!!
Fight every election as if it's neck and neck.
The worst example of complacency i recall was Sands End in 2002. I did mutual aid, and the local Conservatives thought they'd won by 2 pm, and threw a party. By 5 pm, they were completely pissed, and ridiculed my idea that we should be door-knocking. They lost by 7 votes.
My stint as guest editor will cover the aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and the by-election in Clacton.
As has been noted before, NOTHING MAJOR EVER HAPPENS WHEN MIKE GOES ON HOLIDAY.
On the day of the appeal I turned up in Edinburgh to find this man twisting himself around the furniture, unable to sit still and with a tremor in his voice. I wondered what on earth I had done.
And then he stood up in the court. And was brilliant. And won. I will frankly never be close to being as good as that because I just don't get that nervous. It is a fault. Adrenalin is weird stuff.
Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
Unionist complacency has always been one of our ace cards. It is the gift that just keeps on giving and giving and giving.
Maybe, Hugh. But that would have been fairly constant since last time, I suppose.
When the evening started, everybody was saying that it "was Labour´s for the taking." Instead, the Lib Dems have safely seen off the challenge. It seems to me that in Newscastle, and in some other places as well, the Lib Dems are not just lying down and waiting to be carved up.
Conservative (33 members)
Labour (9 members)
Independent (6 members)
Tendring First (6 members)
Holland-on-Sea Residents Group (3 members)
Liberal-Democrat (2 members)
Other (1 member)