If Scotland votes YES then the next GE will be No Overall Majority, with No Overall Significance, as a new election will follow within 18 months, max.
Yet again, I point pb-ers to the Next PM Market, where you can get 20/1 to 50/1 on likely Tory replacements for Cameron.
Because David "Old Etonian" Cameron will resign if he loses the Union. The Queen's angry stare will be sufficient, in itself.
If it is a YES then LAB, on current numbers, will need just an extra 11 gains in rUK to make up. Do the maths. It is not as big a deal as you make out.
It's a huge deal for Labour, long term, as Scotland is the emotional and ideological heartland of the party: where Kier Hardie was born. Apart from Scotland, where else is their core vote
Then a new election in 2016.
.
It is entirely possible that events could move so quickly from late 2015 when confidence turns down on the economic confidence model, that the 2017 referendum vote even in the event of a Conservative led government remaining in power post the GE becomes irrelevant on the sovereign debt inspired breakup of the EU.
How did your previous predictions turn out?
Well I predicted the government wouldn't close their deficit to zero by 2015 despite being castigated by many Tories on here at the time.
I predicted that interest rates would remain on the floor and that there wouldn't be an exit strategy from QE - remember that being talked about in 2009 / 2010?
I also predicted the tops in the gold and silver markets practically to the day on here in 2011.
I also predicted that we were going to see global cooling in the world, contrary to the AGW agenda, and that's exactly what is happening at a worldwide level.
I also have regularly talked up the prospects on Scotland separating from the rest of the Union on here, again much to the dislike of the PB Tory crowd on here.
Yes I got the stockmarket collapse I forecast badly wrong, but I hope that I've learnt from my mistakes to improve my future predictions on here.
And what have you exactly predicted right on here, master of the universe? You have to put your head above the parapet, rather than just carping others predictions when you don't put them forward yourself.
Against the odds, UKPR have surprisingly updated their polling average this evening to include last night's Sun/YouGov 1% Labour lead, but not tonight' 3% Labour lead from the same pollster. As a result their latest average shows Labour having a lead of 3% as follows:
I would certainly agree that the next poll in Scotland is going to have a massive effect one way or another. There is an increasing sense of tension on both sides and the mood is febrile.
The fact that it appears to be a Survation poll fills me with some trepidation but as OGH pointed out earlier today it is immensely frustrating how little polling there has been in Scotland and we need to take what we can get.
I have consistently said that this was going to be closer than the polls were indicating or many on here thought. I have seen and heard nothing to suggest otherwise in recent times. A lead for Yes now and it really could be all over.
The planets are aligning , NO is in trouble , people are seeing reality , it will be one way traffic from here in. Unionists are crap and have nothing to say.
DavidL - see my post down thread. I am afraid even if Survation just reverts to the mean (its last poll being an outlier that showed an 8 point swing to no) it will give the impression of real momentum to yes. Do you sense a change on the ground? You have been nervous for some time.
Yes. After the most interminable campaign in history it has suddenly got very real. Several hundred thousand people started voting today as their postal votes arrived.
The Yes campaign and its supporters have a swagger and a confidence that they have done enough. They have no answers but they don't care. Their attitude is "we'll cope".
The no vote is also hardening as the stakes get higher and people get increasingly apprehensive.
Posters, stickers, road signs are everywhere. I have never seen anything close to this in any election. This is the big one. I am sorry that so many south of the border are bored by this but no general election will ever come close.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
If it was Yes leading, that would would have been pretty disastrous. We'll see if/how the debate bounce fades over time.
I'm getting nervous again. The SNP in recent years seem to have an excellent sense of timing and picking the time to push for momentum.
That is because we understand the Scottish electorate. Unlike the numerous duffers around here who daily wax lyrical about matters Scotch. They simply don't have the faintest scoobie about the topic at hand.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
Actually I will take that and with both hands. I feared worse.
EXC: Daily Mail/Survation poll reveals No campaign lead has halved among decided voters since Salmond TV debate win - Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4)
Wow! Am genuinely getting excited about this again, after writing things off for the Yes campaign after the Salmond divebomb in the 1st debate.
Even if yes lose narrowly with over 45% of the vote, this idea that there won't be a referendum vote again for years and years will be shown to be nonsense. Only a 2/3rds, 1/3rds result would kill the issue stone dead for the forseeable future like the EEC referendum in 1975.
David Cameron: failed to win an election, fatally split his side of politics, lost the Union.
Potentially the worst Prime Minister ever?
Well, you're rather premature on all three assertions, which makes your concluding question somewhat pointless, but on the basis of record employment, rapidly falling unemployment, a strongly growing economy, falling crime rates and reasonable satisfaction rates with public services, I think we can safely conclude that Cameron is not the worst prime minister ever, or even close.
He's fine, possibly rather good. Unlikely to be recalled as one of the greats. But he will be defined by his second term if he gets one, or by a very favourable comparison to his replacement if he does not, so it's too early to close the book.
If he loses the Union - when he could easily have saved it with Devomax - then I am afraid Hugh is correct.
Cameron will go down in history as possibly the worst prime minister ever. All else will appear very trivial, in the eyes of posterity. Future historians won't look at "crime rates" - the secession of Scotland will entirely overshadow everything else.
There is a piquant irony that it might be an Old Etonian, Oxbridge Bullingdonian who F*cked it all up for the British Establishment.
I agree with Mr T, rather surprisingly. Rejecting the third option of Devomax may turn out to have been the crucial mistake. Much touted as a victory against Mr Salmond who had baited the trap by saying basically, "we SNPers want indy but so many voters want devomax - the proper federal kind - that we ought to do the decent democratic thing". Left the SNP on the high moral ground, a third of voters teed off, and a clear road to indy.
The alternative way to look at it is that Mr C didn't feel able to exert the leadership to get it past the Tory backbench MPs etc. as the only way to save the union for sure.
Either way, he gets the credit.
Carnyx, history will not show it like that. To give the lead to a Labour loser like Darling shows how poor Cameron is, it was a monumental mistake. It may have seemed good at the time but was always going to be toxic, far better if the Tories had fought it themselves , taken the ridicule and left labour to campaign alone and keep as many of their votes as possible. Arrogance and stupidity has done for them.
Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: Labour are back to a 3 point lead and the Libs are very low - CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%.
Unusually low combined total of 89% for these 4 parties, suggesting a half decent score for the Greens.
Others are moving like a bit of a yo-yo with YouGov, between 6% and 10% in the last fortnight.
Those figures for Others don't reflect what can happen on election day because the Greens probably won't contest enough seats to get more than 3% and the BNP will be lucky to put up 20 candidates. But the opinion polls assume both will be standing everywhere.
Point taken. Presumably the majority of unrepresented would-be Green voters will opt for Labour instead. I think we can largely ignore any BNP switching factor.
EXC: Daily Mail/Survation poll reveals No campaign lead has halved among decided voters since Salmond TV debate win - Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4)
Wow! Am genuinely getting excited about this again, after writing things off for the Yes campaign after the Salmond divebomb in the 1st debate.
Even if yes lose narrowly with over 45% of the vote, this idea that there won't be a referendum vote again for years and years will be shown to be nonsense. Only a 2/3rds, 1/3rds result would kill the issue stone dead for the forseeable future like the EEC referendum in 1975.
In 1979 the devolution referendum was won-but-lost and it would be another 18 years.
EXC: Daily Mail/Survation poll reveals No campaign lead has halved among decided voters since Salmond TV debate win - Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4)
Wow! Am genuinely getting excited about this again, after writing things off for the Yes campaign after the Salmond divebomb in the 1st debate.
Even if yes lose narrowly with over 45% of the vote, this idea that there won't be a referendum vote again for years and years will be shown to be nonsense. Only a 2/3rds, 1/3rds result would kill the issue stone dead for the forseeable future like the EEC referendum in 1975.
That's extremely depressing, not least because it seems likely to be true. The idea the issue would be resolved and put to bed for a generation just seems absurd, it'll be a nightmare.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out.
We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
Survation are back to where they were before the debates.
Or is this the start of slingshot? Dark side of the moon a week ago, now coming round with gravity to propel them over the line. A fool would lump on No now.
EXC: Daily Mail/Survation poll reveals No campaign lead has halved among decided voters since Salmond TV debate win - Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4)
Wow! Am genuinely getting excited about this again, after writing things off for the Yes campaign after the Salmond divebomb in the 1st debate.
Even if yes lose narrowly with over 45% of the vote, this idea that there won't be a referendum vote again for years and years will be shown to be nonsense. Only a 2/3rds, 1/3rds result would kill the issue stone dead for the forseeable future like the EEC referendum in 1975.
That's extremely depressing, not least because it seems likely to be true. The idea the issue would be resolved and put to bed for a generation just seems absurd, it'll be a nightmare.
Isn't that predicated on the assumption there would be no new constitutional settlement in the mean time? Bring on a properly federal UK!
If Scotland votes YES then I would expect legislation to be brought forward prior to the GE to disenfranchise immediately Scottish MPs from all matters other than those directly connected with Scotland.
Cameron would feel hugely deflated but I doubt he would resign, nor should he. He has played the issue right: right to allow the referendum, right to state briefly and clearly his support for the Union, right to stay out of the campaign. If the Scots want independence then that is no unique failing of his; they just want independence.
I agree. Cameron has a strong sense of duty, and would remain in post.
Throwing a fit of vanity and causing difficulties for his party is not his way, he is not Davis or Carswell.
I do love the way people who put party and power before principle are so keen to claim that those who have more honour make their decisions purely on the basis of vanity or self service.
It is a cowardly claim made by those who know they have no real answer to principled behaviour and who, by their comments, show they have no understanding of the concept.
Vain and self serving people often claim high principles, but it does not mean that they have them.
I am quite glad to see that people like Carswell are leaving the Conservative party, if they all do then I might consider voting Conservative myself.
DavidL - see my post down thread. I am afraid even if Survation just reverts to the mean (its last poll being an outlier that showed an 8 point swing to no) it will give the impression of real momentum to yes. Do you sense a change on the ground? You have been nervous for some time.
Yes. After the most interminable campaign in history it has suddenly got very real. Several hundred thousand people started voting today as their postal votes arrived.
The Yes campaign and its supporters have a swagger and a confidence that they have done enough. They have no answers but they don't care. Their attitude is "we'll cope".
The no vote is also hardening as the stakes get higher and people get increasingly apprehensive.
Posters, stickers, road signs are everywhere. I have never seen anything close to this in any election. This is the big one. I am sorry that so many south of the border are bored by this but no general election will ever come close.
EXC: Daily Mail/Survation poll reveals No campaign lead has halved among decided voters since Salmond TV debate win - Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4)
Wow! Am genuinely getting excited about this again, after writing things off for the Yes campaign after the Salmond divebomb in the 1st debate.
Even if yes lose narrowly with over 45% of the vote, this idea that there won't be a referendum vote again for years and years will be shown to be nonsense. Only a 2/3rds, 1/3rds result would kill the issue stone dead for the forseeable future like the EEC referendum in 1975.
That's extremely depressing, not least because it seems likely to be true. The idea the issue would be resolved and put to bed for a generation just seems absurd, it'll be a nightmare.
Isn't that predicated on the assumption there would be no new constitutional settlement in the mean time? Bring on a properly federal UK!
It may be the only solution, but clearly a lot of people will not be satisfied with anything other than full independence, so even if No wins and we go down that route, the issue will keep on going.
Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4) Back to the schemes DavdL much work to do.
Too late now. The No camp lost the ground war 9 months ago. While we were knocking doors the Unionists were smoking fat cigars and discussing how big their winning margin was going to be.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
Actually I will take that and with both hands. I feared worse.
Yep, me too.
I still believe NO will probably edge it, but the idea it's gonna be 60/40, as some have suggested (rcs?), is twaddle. It will be close.
I do not understand why the NO campaign didn't scotch the second debate. They had nothing to gain, and everything to lose. Daft decision.
McArse likely to be wrong but I am sure JackW will have some excuse.
Was brilliant in Stockholm last weekend, ITU triathlon in Gamla Stan (the old town) with a close up view of the Brownlee brothers, and there is a general election there a fortnight on Sunday (14th September). Got handed a leaflet by the moderate party (Reinfeldt's bloc) and a sweet even though I hardly understood a word of it. Still the Swedish blonde girl who handed me the sweet was as beautiful as they come outside the Royal Palace!
From the opinion polls there it looks as though the Social Democrats are coming back to power in some leftish coalition. Worryingly the far right Swedish Democrats party are polling around 9% (well up from 5% last time) with everyone else wanting nothing to do with them quite rightly.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
Actually I will take that and with both hands. I feared worse.
Yep, me too.
I still believe NO will probably edge it, but the idea it's gonna be 60/40, as some have suggested (rcs?), is twaddle. It will be close.
I do not understand why the NO campaign didn't scotch the second debate. They had nothing to gain, and everything to lose. Daft decision.
They are done for , Labour voters are ticked off that they are promoting Tory policies , it is becoming a flood.
Louise M is clearly bored - she's retweeting the whole back catalogue of Carswell's anti UKIP, pull together for the blues tweeting...
It actually is quite effective mind you without anyone else sticking the knife in, it's his own words.
It occurred to me earlier that Louise Mensch appears to be quite homesick, at least from a political perspective - I'm assuming she's posting from the marital home in NY.
If Scotland votes YES then I would expect legislation to be brought forward prior to the GE to disenfranchise immediately Scottish MPs from all matters other than those directly connected with Scotland.
Cameron would feel hugely deflated but I doubt he would resign, nor should he. He has played the issue right: right to allow the referendum, right to state briefly and clearly his support for the Union, right to stay out of the campaign. If the Scots want independence then that is no unique failing of his; they just want independence.
I agree. Cameron has a strong sense of duty, and would remain in post.
Throwing a fit of vanity and causing difficulties for his party is not his way, he is not Davis or Carswell.
I do love the way people who put party and power before principle are so keen to claim that those who have more honour make their decisions purely on the basis of vanity or self service.
It is a cowardly claim made by those who know they have no real answer to principled behaviour and who, by their comments, show they have no understanding of the concept.
Vain and self serving people often claim high principles, but it does not mean that they have them.
I am quite glad to see that people like Carswell are leaving the Conservative party, if they all do then I might consider voting Conservative myself.
Which says a great deal about your lack of principles given that he was one of the very few Tories who supported some of the most fundamental issues that the Lib Dems claim to believe in such as Electoral Reform.
I repeat, it is clear that critics such as yourself have absolutely no idea about the concept of acting on principle rather than in pursuit of power or personal gain.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
Actually I will take that and with both hands. I feared worse.
Yep, me too.
I still believe NO will probably edge it, but the idea it's gonna be 60/40, as some have suggested (rcs?), is twaddle. It will be close.
I do not understand why the NO campaign didn't scotch the second debate. They had nothing to gain, and everything to lose. Daft decision.
45/55 seems most likely. Was also my prediction about 6 months ago.
Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4) Back to the schemes DavdL much work to do.
He needs to get out of Morningside
I have never canvassed Morningside Malcolm or indeed anywhere else in Edinburgh. You don't half talk some rubbish.
It's Whitfield,Fintry,Douglas and the like that's giving you the heebie jeebies. People that rarely or never vote are suddenly certainly up for this one.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
Actually I will take that and with both hands. I feared worse.
Yep, me too.
I still believe NO will probably edge it, but the idea it's gonna be 60/40, as some have suggested (rcs?), is twaddle. It will be close.
I do not understand why the NO campaign didn't scotch the second debate. They had nothing to gain, and everything to lose. Daft decision.
McArse likely to be wrong but I am sure JackW will have some excuse.
Jack is an arse , his astroturfing visit to Edinburgh is not going well.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
53: 47 with Survation doesn't seem that bad. Better Together just need to keep calm and carry on.
If Scotland votes YES then the next GE will be No Overall Majority, with No Overall Significance, as a new election will follow within 18 months, max.
Yet again, I point pb-ers to the Next PM Market, where you can get 20/1 to 50/1 on likely Tory replacements for Cameron.
Because David "Old Etonian" Cameron will resign if he loses the Union. The Queen's angry stare will be sufficient, in itself.
There will be no election within 18 months because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which changes everything.
Don't be ridiculous, that law will have to be be repealed by any incoming government in 2015, to deal with the anomaly of foreign Scots MPs making laws for the English, Norns and Welsh from 2016-2020 (which is what would happen if the law stays in place).
The Fixed Parliament Act may be reinstated post 2016 independence, but that's a different question.
You're just jealous that I noted the VALUE in the next PM market, before you.
Actually I think I first noted this possibility around Xmas.
Cue Peter the Punter to tell us he spotted the VALUE just after lunch, on Easter Sunday, 2011.
Anyway, here's a fun game (for anoraks). Let's say Scotland votes YES, and that I am right, and Cameron resigns within a few weeks/months of the vote (i.e. before the next GE).
Who do pb-ers think would take over?
I have a feeling Hague might get the nod, as a kind of caretaker manager. And he was 50/1 last time I looked at the next PM market.
Hague is standing down as an MP it won't be him.
My own hunch, were it to happen, and Dave quits, a Tory leadership election takes around 3 months.
To put it bluntly, we can't afford to dick around for 2 to 3 months.
So the next Tory leader will be coronated, and that will favour Theresa May.
Aren't both the Chancellor and the Foreign Secretary senior to the Home Secretary?
Nope, they are holders of the Great Offices of State
It is my understanding that there is a precedence within those four. PM > CoE > Foreign Secretary > Home Secretary.
EXC: Daily Mail/Survation poll reveals No campaign lead has halved among decided voters since Salmond TV debate win - Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4)
Wow! Am genuinely getting excited about this again, after writing things off for the Yes campaign after the Salmond divebomb in the 1st debate.
Even if yes lose narrowly with over 45% of the vote, this idea that there won't be a referendum vote again for years and years will be shown to be nonsense. Only a 2/3rds, 1/3rds result would kill the issue stone dead for the forseeable future like the EEC referendum in 1975.
That's extremely depressing, not least because it seems likely to be true. The idea the issue would be resolved and put to bed for a generation just seems absurd, it'll be a nightmare.
Its pretty simple really. People in good economic times come together, in bad economic times they drift apart. Which is the reason why I've consistently talked up the SNP (and Scottish independence) on here despite all the naysayers. Just look around the world and see the rising cycle of war and states splitting apart. It happens for a reason, and that reason is economic pressures driving events. The idea that Scottish independence would be gaining support with everything going economically well for the UK would be fatuous.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
Actually I will take that and with both hands. I feared worse.
Yep, me too.
I still believe NO will probably edge it, but the idea it's gonna be 60/40, as some have suggested (rcs?), is twaddle. It will be close.
I do not understand why the NO campaign didn't scotch the second debate. They had nothing to gain, and everything to lose. Daft decision.
45/55 seems most likely. Was also my prediction about 6 months ago.
45 for no or yes, please? (I ask because it's no/yes in the quoted posting.)
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
Actually I will take that and with both hands. I feared worse.
Yep, me too.
I still believe NO will probably edge it, but the idea it's gonna be 60/40, as some have suggested (rcs?), is twaddle. It will be close.
I do not understand why the NO campaign didn't scotch the second debate. They had nothing to gain, and everything to lose. Daft decision.
I said so repeatedly.
The lies and fantasies of Salmond & Co are so egregious and so constant that No constantly spends its time on the defensive correcting the latest nonsense. This is the trap Darling fell into. Instead of reminding the Scottish people how much they get from the Union he spent all his time challenging lies and evasions.
What has been depressing and increasingly worrying is that it does not matter how absurd the SNP spokesmen get, their supporters lap it up and shout down anyone who has the audacity to disagree. So lies about discussions with the BoE, the incredibly stupid idea of Scotland starting its independent life with a default, fantasies about the NHS, none of it is getting the traction that it should.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·5 mins First post-debate Scottish poll from Survation: No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4). (Via @johnestevens).
Not good for Unionists, not good at all.
But - weirdly - it could have been worse.
Nonetheless the referendum is going down to the wire. This should never have been the case. It is a huge and total error by Cameron, and a potential existential threat to Labour.
53: 47 with Survation doesn't seem that bad. Better Together just need to keep calm and carry on.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
The thought of Cameron 'disappearing' and becoming Hereward the Wake to the dishevelled Angles and Saxons is quite disturbing
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
You can feel it in the air, NO are in turmoil, panic will ensue soon.
Let's not get too excited about the value of matched bets with Betfair on the result of the Indy referendum. The total to date of £2.31M is a fraction of the average amount wagered on a single televised English Premier League football match.
Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4) Back to the schemes DavdL much work to do.
He needs to get out of Morningside
I have never canvassed Morningside Malcolm or indeed anywhere else in Edinburgh. You don't half talk some rubbish.
It's Whitfield,Fintry,Douglas and the like that's giving you the heebie jeebies. People that rarely or never vote are suddenly certainly up for this one.
Against the odds, UKPR have surprisingly updated their polling average this evening to include last night's Sun/YouGov 1% Labour lead, but not tonight' 3% Labour lead from the same pollster. As a result their latest average shows Labour having a lead of 3% as follows:
If Scotland votes YES then I would expect legislation to be brought forward prior to the GE to disenfranchise immediately Scottish MPs from all matters other than those directly connected with Scotland.
Cameron would feel hugely deflated but I doubt he would resign, nor should he. He has played the issue right: right to allow the referendum, right to state briefly and clearly his support for the Union, right to stay out of the campaign. If the Scots want independence then that is no unique failing of his; they just want independence.
I agree. Cameron has a strong sense of duty, and would remain in post.
Throwing a fit of vanity and causing difficulties for his party is not his way, he is not Davis or Carswell.
I do love the way people who put party and power before principle are so keen to claim that those who have more honour make their decisions purely on the basis of vanity or self service.
It is a cowardly claim made by those who know they have no real answer to principled behaviour and who, by their comments, show they have no understanding of the concept.
Vain and self serving people often claim high principles, but it does not mean that they have them.
I am quite glad to see that people like Carswell are leaving the Conservative party, if they all do then I might consider voting Conservative myself.
Which says a great deal about your lack of principles given that he was one of the very few Tories who supported some of the most fundamental issues that the Lib Dems claim to believe in such as Electoral Reform.
I repeat, it is clear that critics such as yourself have absolutely no idea about the concept of acting on principle rather than in pursuit of power or personal gain.
If I was interested purely in power or personal gain I would not be a LibDem or work in the NHS!
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
You can feel it in the air, NO are in turmoil, panic will ensue soon.
Open a window, and clear the room of whiskey fumes.
Obviously it is far more interesting to speculate on such a dramatic development as YES winning. But it is still an unlikely scenario. Not impossible, but unlikely.
There is now only 3 weeks to go and YES have still not led in a single opinion poll for over a year - and that one was a 1 point lead and it was commissioned by the SNP.
In fact no poll in the last year has had a NO lead of less than 3%.
If we were going into a GE and all the polls were showing one side winning and the other losing - with pollsters disagreeing whether the gap was 4% or 14% we would say the chances are very high that the party in power will win.
The question is - what will happen in the next 3 weeks to convince voters which haven't convinced them in the last year of campaigning?
Sure a YES is possible but there is no reason to think its any better than the 15-20% chance indicated by the odds.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
David Cameron: failed to win an election, fatally split his side of politics, lost the Union.
Potentially the worst Prime Minister ever?
Well, you're rather premature on all three assertions, which makes your concluding question somewhat pointless, but on the basis of record employment, rapidly falling unemployment, a strongly growing economy, falling crime rates and reasonable satisfaction rates with public services, I think we can safely conclude that Cameron is not the worst prime minister ever, or even close.
He's fine, possibly rather good. Unlikely to be recalled as one of the greats. But he will be defined by his second term if he gets one, or by a very favourable comparison to his replacement if he does not, so it's too early to close the book.
If he loses the Union - when he could easily have saved it with Devomax - then I am afraid Hugh is correct.
Cameron will go down in history as possibly the worst prime minister ever. All else will appear very trivial, in the eyes of posterity. Future historians won't look at "crime rates" - the secession of Scotland will entirely overshadow everything else.
There is a piquant irony that it might be an Old Etonian, Oxbridge Bullingdonian who F*cked it all up for the British Establishment.
I agree with Mr T, rather surprisingly. Rejecting the third option of Devomax may turn out to have been the crucial mistake. Much touted as a victory against Mr Salmond who had baited the trap by saying basically, "we SNPers want indy but so many voters want devomax - the proper federal kind - that we ought to do the decent democratic thing". Left the SNP on the high moral ground, a third of voters teed off, and a clear road to indy.
The alternative way to look at it is that Mr C didn't feel able to exert the leadership to get it past the Tory backbench MPs etc. as the only way to save the union for sure.
Either way, he gets the credit.
Devomax would be considered unacceptable by the English. Could never have been offered.
Nonsense. Devomax would be welcomed by English voters. Scotland spends what Scotland earns? Just foreign policy and EU matters are left to a Federal UK government in London, and we still share the crown and the pound. Fair enough. Result.
On top of this, Devomax would have totally f*cked Labour, who would no longer be able to rely on their Scots MPs.
That Cameron refused this prize could be the greatest political miscalculation of the century.
You are wasting your breath Sean. They just don't get it.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
You can feel it in the air, NO are in turmoil, panic will ensue soon.
Open a window, and clear the room of whiskey fumes.
LOL you really are dumb, we are not talking about Ireland you TURNIP.
DavidL - see my post down thread. I am afraid even if Survation just reverts to the mean (its last poll being an outlier that showed an 8 point swing to no) it will give the impression of real momentum to yes. Do you sense a change on the ground? You have been nervous for some time.
Yes. After the most interminable campaign in history it has suddenly got very real. Several hundred thousand people started voting today as their postal votes arrived.
The Yes campaign and its supporters have a swagger and a confidence that they have done enough. They have no answers but they don't care. Their attitude is "we'll cope".
The no vote is also hardening as the stakes get higher and people get increasingly apprehensive.
Posters, stickers, road signs are everywhere. I have never seen anything close to this in any election. This is the big one. I am sorry that so many south of the border are bored by this but no general election will ever come close.
Two for YES from my house.
And 4 for no from mine Malcolm. So there we are. 60:40 after all.
Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4) Back to the schemes DavdL much work to do.
Too late now. The No camp lost the ground war 9 months ago. While we were knocking doors the Unionists were smoking fat cigars and discussing how big their winning margin was going to be.
Some here have long pointed out how poor the No campaign was in comparison. To be largely met with zzz, or Braveheart! or Cybernat! type guff from ignorant southern Tories.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
That's the price that would always end up being paid for bribing the Kingdom of Scotland into a junior 'partnership' as part of empire building. It's bum luck we pay the price, but pay we shall.
DavidL - see my post down thread. I am afraid even if Survation just reverts to the mean (its last poll being an outlier that showed an 8 point swing to no) it will give the impression of real momentum to yes. Do you sense a change on the ground? You have been nervous for some time.
Yes. After the most interminable campaign in history it has suddenly got very real. Several hundred thousand people started voting today as their postal votes arrived.
The Yes campaign and its supporters have a swagger and a confidence that they have done enough. They have no answers but they don't care. Their attitude is "we'll cope".
The no vote is also hardening as the stakes get higher and people get increasingly apprehensive.
Posters, stickers, road signs are everywhere. I have never seen anything close to this in any election. This is the big one. I am sorry that so many south of the border are bored by this but no general election will ever come close.
Two for YES from my house.
And 4 for no from mine Malcolm. So there we are. 60:40 after all.
Not enough of you Tories though David, the pandas have it
DavidL - see my post down thread. I am afraid even if Survation just reverts to the mean (its last poll being an outlier that showed an 8 point swing to no) it will give the impression of real momentum to yes. Do you sense a change on the ground? You have been nervous for some time.
Yes. After the most interminable campaign in history it has suddenly got very real. Several hundred thousand people started voting today as their postal votes arrived.
The Yes campaign and its supporters have a swagger and a confidence that they have done enough. They have no answers but they don't care. Their attitude is "we'll cope".
The no vote is also hardening as the stakes get higher and people get increasingly apprehensive.
Posters, stickers, road signs are everywhere. I have never seen anything close to this in any election. This is the big one. I am sorry that so many south of the border are bored by this but no general election will ever come close.
Two for YES from my house.
And 4 for no from mine Malcolm. So there we are. 60:40 after all.
I wonder where the people who have their passport / citizenship revoked end up. Some sort of Jihadi version of the terrible Tom Hanks movie "The Terminal"?
Obviously it is far more interesting to speculate on such a dramatic development as YES winning. But it is still an unlikely scenario. Not impossible, but unlikely.
There is now only 3 weeks to go and YES have still not led in a single opinion poll for over a year - and that one was a 1 point lead and it was commissioned by the SNP.
In fact no poll in the last year has had a NO lead of less than 3%.
If we were going into a GE and all the polls were showing one side winning and the other losing - with pollsters disagreeing whether the gap was 4% or 14% we would say the chances are very high that the party in power will win.
The question is - what will happen in the next 3 weeks to convince voters which haven't convinced them in the last year of campaigning?
Sure a YES is possible but there is no reason to think its any better than the 15-20% chance indicated by the odds.
Obviously it is far more interesting to speculate on such a dramatic development as YES winning. But it is still an unlikely scenario. Not impossible, but unlikely.
There is now only 3 weeks to go and YES have still not led in a single opinion poll for over a year - and that one was a 1 point lead and it was commissioned by the SNP.
In fact no poll in the last year has had a NO lead of less than 3%.
If we were going into a GE and all the polls were showing one side winning and the other losing - with pollsters disagreeing whether the gap was 4% or 14% we would say the chances are very high that the party in power will win.
The question is - what will happen in the next 3 weeks to convince voters which haven't convinced them in the last year of campaigning?
Sure a YES is possible but there is no reason to think its any better than the 15-20% chance indicated by the odds.
Referendum polling is untested and even the pollsters themselves are very edgy.
Better than a 20% chance in my opinion. Much better.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out. 9 We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.
Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.
I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
You can feel it in the air, NO are in turmoil, panic will ensue soon.
I do think they are panicking, as no matter how confident they might have been, the numbers are still too close for comfort when the enemy (that's you of course) are so motivated and intense, but as I've been assured by many on the Yes side that No have been in desperate chaos for the entire campaign without a single incident of intelligent decision making over the many years of preparation, your position of seeing the ensuing panicking according with mine makes me less sure of my own view, funnily enough. Hopefully No supporters will continue to push hard - no matter how many times someone cries wolf, cried panic, best to treat it as real.
"He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out.
We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
Stop the melodramatics. No-one is asking him to commit suicide, merely resign if it goes wrong. I'm not sure there would be immediate public calls for him to go, but Labour would surely pressure him into it. Fairly quickly I think people down here would realise how momentous it was, helped I'm sure by an astonished reaction from the rest of the world - when was the last time a major western country fell apart? and the one one that created the biggest Empire the world has ever seen. The Soviet Union collapsed by that was a always a Russian Empire and inspired by communism. I can just see Obama and various European leaders in press conferences with glum faces.
So Cameron would feel a lot of outside pressure, but what about his own party. English identity may be increasing in the Tories but for many of them the Union is still absolutely fundamental to their identity, including I'm sure a fair few of the awkward squad who we know don't like him.
Peter Bone Nadine Dorries Andrew Bridgen Roger Gale Andrew Rosindell Angela Watkinson Gerald Howarth Andrew Turner / Stewart Jackson
Will the gang of 8 do what the gang of 4 couldn't do after the falklands war?
As I recall, nearly all the SDP defectors lost their seats in the 1983 election and were never heard of again. The one who forced a by election lost it, if my memory serves me correctly.
DavidL - see my post down thread. I am afraid even if Survation just reverts to the mean (its last poll being an outlier that showed an 8 point swing to no) it will give the impression of real momentum to yes. Do you sense a change on the ground? You have been nervous for some time.
Yes. After the most interminable campaign in history it has suddenly got very real. Several hundred thousand people started voting today as their postal votes arrived.
The Yes campaign and its supporters have a swagger and a confidence that they have done enough. They have no answers but they don't care. Their attitude is "we'll cope".
The no vote is also hardening as the stakes get higher and people get increasingly apprehensive.
Posters, stickers, road signs are everywhere. I have never seen anything close to this in any election. This is the big one. I am sorry that so many south of the border are bored by this but no general election will ever come close.
Two for YES from my house.
And 4 for no from mine Malcolm. So there we are. 60:40 after all.
Comments
EXC: Daily Mail/Survation poll reveals No campaign lead has halved among decided voters since Salmond TV debate win - Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4)
I'm getting nervous again. The SNP in recent years seem to have an excellent sense of timing and picking the time to push for momentum.
Salmond will still need to outperform the polls. No doubt this is not a challenge he finds too frightening, but a challenge none the less.
Con ......... 33%
Lab ......... 36%
LibDem ..... 8%
UKIP .........14%
Greens ...... 4%
Others ....... 5%
Total ...... 100%
Presumably these are the figures on which Stephen Fisher's forecast will be based tomorrow.
The Yes campaign and its supporters have a swagger and a confidence that they have done enough. They have no answers but they don't care. Their attitude is "we'll cope".
The no vote is also hardening as the stakes get higher and people get increasingly apprehensive.
Posters, stickers, road signs are everywhere. I have never seen anything close to this in any election. This is the big one. I am sorry that so many south of the border are bored by this but no general election will ever come close.
Quite incredible accusation.
This is from one of their MSPs
Richard Lyle MSP @RichardlyleSnp 22m
Looks like ipsos used the no thanks calculator. Apparently 101 % responded. #bias these polls are Totally Wrong YES
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJiKsfIUAA5l26.jpg
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 5m
Can someone please have a quiet word with @RichardlyleSnp and explain to him how polls can sometime add up to 99 or 101%? Thanks. #amateurs
You can be the Venezuela of Europe.
Even if yes lose narrowly with over 45% of the vote, this idea that there won't be a referendum vote again for years and years will be shown to be nonsense. Only a 2/3rds, 1/3rds result would kill the issue stone dead for the forseeable future like the EEC referendum in 1975.
Survation are back to where they were before the debates.
Yes need complacency..
DAILY MAIL@ 8 MORE TORIES 'IN UKIP TALKS' #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ7qqlCQAAxCFz.png
Exactly he is from trade, not the bleedin' samurai. English gentlemen don't commit ritual suicide from shame, if they did we would never have got past the battle of Loos. Come to that we would never have got to the battle of Loos, the whole country would have died in a leaderless mess donkeys years before WWI ever broke out.
We used to shoot leaders that had failed in their duty but I don't think we have done that since Byng (Edwin Dyson in WWI might be another example, but that's iffy in my view) but we have never expected Gentlemen who have tried and failed to commit suicide.
Yes 5.3 (from 6.6)
No 1.22 (from 1.17)
2.31 million GBP now matched
It actually is quite effective mind you without anyone else sticking the knife in, it's his own words.
I am quite glad to see that people like Carswell are leaving the Conservative party, if they all do then I might consider voting Conservative myself.
Peter Bone
Nadine Dorries
Andrew Bridgen
Roger Gale
Andrew Rosindell
Angela Watkinson
Gerald Howarth
Andrew Turner / Stewart Jackson
From the opinion polls there it looks as though the Social Democrats are coming back to power in some leftish coalition. Worryingly the far right Swedish Democrats party are polling around 9% (well up from 5% last time) with everyone else wanting nothing to do with them quite rightly.
I repeat, it is clear that critics such as yourself have absolutely no idea about the concept of acting on principle rather than in pursuit of power or personal gain.
People that rarely or never vote are suddenly certainly up for this one.
How are your investments doing?
New Survation #indyref poll for Scottish Daily Mail
Yes - 42% (+4)
No - 48% (-3)
Undecided - 11% (-2) http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-DM-2nd-Debate-Tables.pdf …
The lies and fantasies of Salmond & Co are so egregious and so constant that No constantly spends its time on the defensive correcting the latest nonsense. This is the trap Darling fell into. Instead of reminding the Scottish people how much they get from the Union he spent all his time challenging lies and evasions.
What has been depressing and increasingly worrying is that it does not matter how absurd the SNP spokesmen get, their supporters lap it up and shout down anyone who has the audacity to disagree. So lies about discussions with the BoE, the incredibly stupid idea of Scotland starting its independent life with a default, fantasies about the NHS, none of it is getting the traction that it should.
The total to date of £2.31M is a fraction of the average amount wagered on a single televised English Premier League football match.
Recall what I was saying a few days ago, that nothing much has been changing on the Labour lead?
twitter.com/adelemcvay/status/504978582498979840/photo/1
There is now only 3 weeks to go and YES have still not led in a single opinion poll for over a year - and that one was a 1 point lead and it was commissioned by the SNP.
In fact no poll in the last year has had a NO lead of less than 3%.
If we were going into a GE and all the polls were showing one side winning and the other losing - with pollsters disagreeing whether the gap was 4% or 14% we would say the chances are very high that the party in power will win.
The question is - what will happen in the next 3 weeks to convince voters which haven't convinced them in the last year of campaigning?
Sure a YES is possible but there is no reason to think its any better than the 15-20% chance indicated by the odds.
And 4 for no from mine Malcolm. So there we are. 60:40 after all.
That said, I still think No will edge it.
I knew that statistics degree would come in handy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967957
I wonder where the people who have their passport / citizenship revoked end up. Some sort of Jihadi version of the terrible Tom Hanks movie "The Terminal"?
I'll give you a clue: turnout.
Better than a 20% chance in my opinion. Much better.
So Cameron would feel a lot of outside pressure, but what about his own party. English identity may be increasing in the Tories but for many of them the Union is still absolutely fundamental to their identity, including I'm sure a fair few of the awkward squad who we know don't like him.
The only steady nerve is Ed Miliband, who is quietly, nerdily, but sure-footedly tip-toeing over the corpses and wreckage into Number 10...