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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 201

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  • HYUFD said:

    SD All expenses and campaigns have to be Scottish based under electoral law I would assume

    Whoopsadaisy. Someone ought to tell Labour North that. Their correspondence has been widely shared on social media.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    RobD said:

    The possibility of nine Tory-defence by elections is making me reach for the smelling salts.

    Were this to prove to be the case Cameron, or probably a new leader, would need to cobble together a deal with UKIP in double quick time. Otherwise the Tories might as well concede next year's GE in advance.
    But surely LAB defectors to UKIP less likely to vote UKIP in this scenario

    Therefore Cameron cant win either way
    Depends on the deal. Local electoral pacts can be very successful - say Tories stand down in Plymouth Moor View in return for UKIP standing down in Plymouth Sutton.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Viz Comic (@vizcomic)
    28/08/2014 22:52
    pic.twitter.com/Lr1vJGMqDR
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    corporeal said:

    RobD said:

    corporeal said:

    How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.

    Between one more to eight more apparently

    If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
    Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
    I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
    I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.

    Just saying....
    Excellent.

    Best brush up on my Historical knowledge.

    Or spend 3 weeks in Cineworld!!!
    I've written and published a few threads written at Cineworld Sheffield
    Bugger

    Apparently Mrs BJ reckons we should go on holiday late September!!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    The possibility of nine Tory-defence by elections is making me reach for the smelling salts.

    Were this to prove to be the case Cameron, or probably a new leader, would need to cobble together a deal with UKIP in double quick time. Otherwise the Tories might as well concede next year's GE in advance.
    But surely LAB defectors to UKIP less likely to vote UKIP in this scenario

    Therefore Cameron cant win either way
    Depends on the deal. Local electoral pacts can be very successful - say Tories stand down in Plymouth Moor View in return for UKIP standing down in Plymouth Sutton.
    Quite. The realisation of MAD will force a pact at some level.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited August 2014
    SD Tell that to Salmond then, it was his complacency in the first debate which cost Yes its best chance of sealing victory!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2014
    PClipp said:

    "Posh students and academics. Liberal, bit Righty and loyal."

    Maybe, Hugh. But that would have been fairly constant since last time, I suppose.

    When the evening started, everybody was saying that it "was Labour´s for the taking." Instead, the Lib Dems have safely seen off the challenge. It seems to me that in Newscastle, and in some other places as well, the Lib Dems are not just lying down and waiting to be carved up.

    A good result for the LDs, I am glad to be wrong in my prediction.

    Not many kippers in that Northern city either...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    SD Well some Plaid supporters have come up from Wales to help Yes, neither side admittedly it would seem have seen that principle as sacrosanct
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    The possibility of nine Tory-defence by elections is making me reach for the smelling salts.

    Were this to prove to be the case Cameron, or probably a new leader, would need to cobble together a deal with UKIP in double quick time. Otherwise the Tories might as well concede next year's GE in advance.
    But surely LAB defectors to UKIP less likely to vote UKIP in this scenario

    Therefore Cameron cant win either way
    Depends on the deal. Local electoral pacts can be very successful - say Tories stand down in Plymouth Moor View in return for UKIP standing down in Plymouth Sutton.
    I think they might soft pedal, but very much doubt actually standing down.
  • HYUFD said:

    SD Tell that to Salmond then, it was his complacency in the first debate which cost Yes its best chance of sealing victory!

    You just don't get it. And you never will.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    SD Well some Plaid supporters have come up from Wales to help Yes, neither side admittedly it would seem have seen that principle as sacrosanct

    There are even some Yes campaigners in Dorset, and Uppsalla, I believe...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Speedy said:

    Word is speading in Clacton as I said earlier:
    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1h
    Word in Clacton is Con councillors are poised to follow Douglas Carswell and defect to Ukip. Purple is the new Blue

    Make up of Tendring DC

    Conservative (33 members)
    Labour (9 members)
    Independent (6 members)
    Tendring First (6 members)
    Holland-on-Sea Residents Group (3 members)
    Liberal-Democrat (2 members)
    Other (1 member)
    Is Tendring about to become the first UKIP local authority (I doubt if it will be the last)?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Why would Ed Miliband inevitably have to "criticise Muslims" if he were to comment on Rotherham?

    Interesting you see this all through the prism of race, Socrates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    SD Yes, I do get Scotland, a beautiful country from the Highlands to Edinburgh, filled in the main with educated and decent people, but also a few with planet sized chips on their shoulders who seem to have congregated in the Yes campaign in this referendum


  • Unionist complacency has always been one of our ace cards. It is the gift that just keeps on giving and giving and giving.


    Mr Dickson, where are you?

    Are you in Scotland campaigning for a yes vote? (And voting I assume?)

    Or in Sweden campaigning for, and voting for, the Moderates for the upcoming GE here?

    Surely you can't do, (or vote in), both?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:
    And look who the first to back Carswell is...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Let's just see. Ed isn't the impulsive sort. He may just be taking his time. And Labour's reliance on the Pakistani vote is overplayed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    SD Well we shall see on referendum night whether I get it or not, but 1st post debates poll shows No still clearly ahead with just over a fortnight to go, and still only 1 poll the entire campaign showed Yes ahead, and that was last year
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Fox And Manhattan and the Bahamas
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    isam said:
    And look who the first to back Carswell is...

    Ukip 100/1 Richmond Pk?


    If zac defected I reckon it's still double figures... Prob why he hasn't!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hugh said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Why would Ed Miliband inevitably have to "criticise Muslims" if he were to comment on Rotherham?

    Interesting you see this all through the prism of race, Socrates.
    Platos back, why not give her some stick about cats?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    Word is speading in Clacton as I said earlier:
    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1h
    Word in Clacton is Con councillors are poised to follow Douglas Carswell and defect to Ukip. Purple is the new Blue

    Make up of Tendring DC

    Conservative (33 members)
    Labour (9 members)
    Independent (6 members)
    Tendring First (6 members)
    Holland-on-Sea Residents Group (3 members)
    Liberal-Democrat (2 members)
    Other (1 member)
    Is Tendring about to become the first UKIP local authority (I doubt if it will be the last)?
    I'd be surprised if the whole block defected and if they don't wouldn't it be more likely to go into a rather messy NOC?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    She's very good at it. She killed Caitlin Moran over TweetSilence. It was hilarious.

    I rather like her.

    Louise M is clearly bored - she's retweeting the whole back catalogue of Carswell's anti UKIP, pull together for the blues tweeting...

    It actually is quite effective mind you without anyone else sticking the knife in, it's his own words.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited August 2014

    corporeal said:

    RobD said:

    corporeal said:

    How many more Tory MP defections being discussed on Newsnight.

    Between one more to eight more apparently

    If, and it's a monumentally massive if, they get 7 or more defections then (outside all the other ructions) it'll be the first time since 1929 (or rather it happened at the UK 1929 GE but continued to 1931) that no party has more than 300 seats.
    Now that is a fact worthy of the nerdiest pub quiz on the planet. :')
    I actually feel a long thread coming on. Possibly long enough to break into two or three.
    I has a longish stint as Guest Editor coming up in about 3 weeks time.

    Just saying....
    Abba, Abba, Abba!

    P.S. Also Blondie, though I realise that both may be a bit before your time.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Why would Ed Miliband inevitably have to "criticise Muslims" if he were to comment on Rotherham?

    Interesting you see this all through the prism of race, Socrates.
    Platos back, why not give her some stick about cats?
    Plato's a parody Tory poster isn't she, like Louise Mensch only with less income from Murdoch?

    No chance on Zac btw, surely? More likely to join some freaky orange-blue grouping with David Laws.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    It made I LOL

    NATO Diplomats Give Russians Geography Lessons on Twitter

    http://www.newsweek.com/nato-diplomats-give-russians-geography-lessons-twitter-267400

    Hilarious for all those people in Donbass who have had their homes destroyed and loved ones killed. NATO should be abolished, they can go and find productive jobs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited August 2014
    Plato said:

    She's very good at it. She killed Caitlin Moran over TweetSilence. It was hilarious.

    I rather like her.

    Louise M is clearly bored - she's retweeting the whole back catalogue of Carswell's anti UKIP, pull together for the blues tweeting...

    It actually is quite effective mind you without anyone else sticking the knife in, it's his own words.

    I think she has real potential, she's just a bit unfocused (unsurprisingly, given she is not an MP anymore, and can comment freely upon whatever takes her fancy), which can lead to trouble and silliness.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Video proof that allowing 9 year olds to fire automatic weapons might not be a great idea:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfMzK7QwfrU
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Why would Ed Miliband inevitably have to "criticise Muslims" if he were to comment on Rotherham?

    Interesting you see this all through the prism of race, Socrates.
    Platos back, why not give her some stick about cats?
    Plato's a parody Tory poster isn't she, like Louise Mensch only with less income from Murdoch?

    No chance on Zac btw, surely? More likely to join some freaky orange-blue grouping with David Laws.
    I think he'd like to but wouldn't win his seat as a kipper

    Finkelstein on newsnight might have a point... Carswell has set a precedent by having a by election, one that fellow ukip flirt ers. May not feel they could live up to


    Did you ever watch Reggie perrin?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Establishment complacency over Scotland was only part of it though, surely. Indecision through fear that anything they did would actually make things worse (which was the charge of Yes whenever they did) seems to have played a part.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    When the subject comes up elsewhere - it's boredom, as you say. When it's not boredom its thinly concealed 'glad to see the back of them, whingers' or a bit of nostalgia.

    The English really aren't interested in Salmond's swaggering and just wish he'd go away.

    I'm rather surprised by this - but then again, I'm sick of it too and the constant victim-card playing. I'm a Unionist, but TBH - I've had enough.
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    "He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."

    No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.

    Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.

    I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
    A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Sean_F said:


    The worst example of complacency i recall was Sands End in 2002. I did mutual aid, and the local Conservatives thought they'd won by 2 pm, and threw a party. By 5 pm, they were completely pissed, and ridiculed my idea that we should be door-knocking. They lost by 7 votes.

    My worst example of finding "helpers" not bothering was standing as Euro-candidate for Lab in 1995 in E Sussex & S Kent. For election day, Hastings Labour Party called a branch meeting, and spent the evening debating any other business etc. When I heard they'd called it and complained, they were genuinely bemused - "well, we aren't going to win this, so why bother?" Of course we weren't going to win, but elections are there to be fought, dammit...

    The Indyref poll looks like a normal post-debate bounce - too close for comfort, but not really menacing. The YouGov is more interesting for its lack of serious movement. There certainly isn't any doubt that UKIP is having an optimal week, and if they don't see some significant progress in the polls soon they'll be pretty disappointed.





  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Let's just see. Ed isn't the impulsive sort. He may just be taking his time. And Labour's reliance on the Pakistani vote is overplayed.
    Not impulsive? He's usually first off the blocks, clamouring for an enquiry into something or other.

    The WWC on who's vote he's relying are a bit quicker in the thinking stakes, and will have worked out something's up and why, soon enough.

    Complacency is Hugh making comments about Miliband doing the Timmy-Tip Toes into No 10.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited August 2014
    Plato said:

    She's very good at it. She killed Caitlin Moran over TweetSilence. It was hilarious.

    I rather like her.

    Louise M is clearly bored - she's retweeting the whole back catalogue of Carswell's anti UKIP, pull together for the blues tweeting...

    It actually is quite effective mind you without anyone else sticking the knife in, it's his own words.

    There is no small irony in someone who resigned her seat for purely personal reasons criticising someone for resigning his seat and party on matters of principle and policy but there again she was one of Cameron's A-Listers
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    HYUFD said:

    SD Yes, I do get Scotland, a beautiful country from the Highlands to Edinburgh, filled in the main with educated and decent people, but also a few with planet sized chips on their shoulders who seem to have congregated in the Yes campaign in this referendum

    I think I saw a poll earlier that had Yes ahead in Glasgow. I'd always assumed in days gone by that Nationalists were concentrated in the Highlands away from the central belt. Glasgow did at one time have the lowest life expectancy in the UK. It's yet more of the left behind voters who are causing Labour a headache in many of their English heartlands. There may be less moaning about immigration (Scotland isn't generally over-crowded) but the sense of disillusionment with elites, both Tory and New Labour is obvious. Ed Miiband might want to re-engage them but he doesn't have Obama's charisma.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Why would Ed Miliband inevitably have to "criticise Muslims" if he were to comment on Rotherham?

    Interesting you see this all through the prism of race, Socrates.
    Platos back, why not give her some stick about cats?
    Plato's a parody Tory poster isn't she, like Louise Mensch only with less income from Murdoch?

    No chance on Zac btw, surely? More likely to join some freaky orange-blue grouping with David Laws.
    I think he'd like to but wouldn't win his seat as a kipper

    Finkelstein on newsnight might have a point... Carswell has set a precedent by having a by election, one that fellow ukip flirt ers. May not feel they could live up to


    Did you ever watch Reggie perrin?
    He just doesn't strike me as Kippy.

    Aren't you lot climate science deniers for a start? And where do you stand on gay marriage again?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited August 2014
    Being English, I do not have a vote, so I cannot get too worked up, though I would like the union to remain. Ultimately, it was the Scots who voted to join the Union in 1707, it is up to them whether they stay, it now looks like they will bar a dramatic, unforeseen development, but we shall see
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Say UKIP win several seats and, perhaps with DUP held or something, are able to be the final numbers the Tories need for a majority (all very implausible I know) - would we see a LD style exodus from the former Labour or disaffected Ukippers who would see doing a deal with Cameron and company as a betrayal?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Plato said:

    When the subject comes up elsewhere - it's boredom, as you say. When it's not boredom its thinly concealed 'glad to see the back of them, whingers' or a bit of nostalgia.

    The English really aren't interested in Salmond's swaggering and just wish he'd go away.

    I'm rather surprised by this - but then again, I'm sick of it too and the constant victim-card playing. I'm a Unionist, but TBH - I've had enough.

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    "He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."

    No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.

    Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.

    I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
    A surprising number of people seem to not be concerned in the slightest, which baffles me a little. Even if one is an English person who firmly supports Scottish Independence, or otherwise has no concern for the current constitutional settlement or doesn't care which way they vote, it's still hugely significant if Yes wins. I wish it weren't; I wouldn't get so worked up then.
    Thanks for those insightful dispatches from the front line.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Hugh said:

    » show previous quotes
    Why would Ed Miliband inevitably have to "criticise Muslims" if he were to comment on Rotherham?'

    Any idea why Rotherham is the only issue in this parliament that Ed has not called for a public inquiry?

    Embarrassed or just spineless?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144
    HYUFD said:

    This despite the fact 500,000 Scots voted Tory in 2010

    You seem a little jittery, to the point of rounding up 412k to 500,000.


  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited August 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Video proof that allowing 9 year olds to fire automatic weapons might not be a great idea:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfMzK7QwfrU

    There was a case a few years back of an 8 year old who accidently blew his own brains out on a US firing range trying to shoot an automatic...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Sean_F said:


    The worst example of complacency i recall was Sands End in 2002. I did mutual aid, and the local Conservatives thought they'd won by 2 pm, and threw a party. By 5 pm, they were completely pissed, and ridiculed my idea that we should be door-knocking. They lost by 7 votes.

    My worst example of finding "helpers" not bothering was standing as Euro-candidate for Lab in 1995 in E Sussex & S Kent. For election day, Hastings Labour Party called a branch meeting, and spent the evening debating any other business etc. When I heard they'd called it and complained, they were genuinely bemused - "well, we aren't going to win this, so why bother?" Of course we weren't going to win, but elections are there to be fought, dammit...

    The Indyref poll looks like a normal post-debate bounce - too close for comfort, but not really menacing. The YouGov is more interesting for its lack of serious movement. There certainly isn't any doubt that UKIP is having an optimal week, and if they don't see some significant progress in the polls soon they'll be pretty disappointed.





    I was once helping to run a council by-election campaign, on election day one of our candidates invited a friend over to his house and tried to play matchmaker by setting him up with the election agent/campaign manager.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @john_zims
    Has Dave fixed a judge for the inquiry he "urgently" wanted?
    Edit:- should of course be picked a judge, slip of the tongue
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    It's worth bearing in mind that since the story has come out, Miliband has tweeted about Scotland, Carswell and Gaza, but zip about Rotherham.

    He probably think it's no big deal.

    From all accounts Ed Miliband is a decent individual. I'm sure he's horrified by this. But he also knows just how deeply dependent Labour are on the tribal Pakistani vote, and knows that a sizable chunk of them will resent a Jew criticising Muslims.

    Nice guy or not, he is completely without a spine.
    Why would Ed Miliband inevitably have to "criticise Muslims" if he were to comment on Rotherham?

    Interesting you see this all through the prism of race, Socrates.
    Platos back, why not give her some stick about cats?
    Plato's a parody Tory poster isn't she, like Louise Mensch only with less income from Murdoch?

    No chance on Zac btw, surely? More likely to join some freaky orange-blue grouping with David Laws.
    I think he'd like to but wouldn't win his seat as a kipper

    Finkelstein on newsnight might have a point... Carswell has set a precedent by having a by election, one that fellow ukip flirt ers. May not feel they could live up to


    Did you ever watch Reggie perrin?
    He just doesn't strike me as Kippy.

    Aren't you lot climate science deniers for a start? And where do you stand on gay marriage again?
    I'm not qualified to comment on climate change, I'd be guessing

    Personally on that and gay marriage I don't care much but just dislike the strident tone of the people who think it's their wáy or no way, same with atheists which I also used to be

    I liked Reggie perrin when he came back as someone else and everyone pretended they were talking to a stranger. Even though they all knew it was Reggie!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Plato said:

    When the subject comes up elsewhere - it's boredom, as you say. When it's not boredom its thinly concealed 'glad to see the back of them, whingers' or a bit of nostalgia.

    The English really aren't interested in Salmond's swaggering and just wish he'd go away.

    I'm rather surprised by this - but then again, I'm sick of it too and the constant victim-card playing. I'm a Unionist, but TBH - I've had enough.

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    "He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."

    No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.

    Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.

    I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
    A
    I try to take the matter in shifts, as I cannot keep it going otherwise - hence one reason why I think Scotland will go independent, if not now then not long after. Unionists in the end will, in significant enough numbers, get worn out from constantly having to defend the union, hearing how much so many people either despise, disdain or just don't care about it. It's dispiriting, exhausting, with the end goal just being maintaining a status quo which, while we like it, vast numbers will never be satisfied with and so it will be endlessly challenged. Unionists don't appear to able to sustain it for the long haul with the same intensity, and FederalUK supporters have yet to catch the fire in the same way as the Indy crowd.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    About the Lady Schloss thing? They picked her very quickly as being the best.....but you would have thought they would have compared her against a shortlist of possibilities?
    Who was the one below her on the list?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Patrick o Flynn on newsnight seemed to be saying there were plenty more defectors coming by his refusal to talk about it

    Unless it was a double bluff!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    SeanT said:
    The Mirror is really gunning for them. I wish Tony Parsons was still writing there. He'd burn the ink off the newsprint.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    When the subject comes up elsewhere - it's boredom, as you say. When it's not boredom its thinly concealed 'glad to see the back of them, whingers' or a bit of nostalgia.

    The English really aren't interested in Salmond's swaggering and just wish he'd go away.

    I'm rather surprised by this - but then again, I'm sick of it too and the constant victim-card playing. I'm a Unionist, but TBH - I've had enough.

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    "He is the son of a stockbroker who went to Eton and married up."

    No Englishman (since Harold Godwinson at Hastings in 1066), has ever presided over the loss of a third of the country's physical size.

    Cameron will quit, if he loses the Union. The emotional pressure on him will be intolerable.

    I really don't think pb-ers have processed how epochal this will be, if Scotland secedes.
    A
    I try to take the matter in shifts, as I cannot keep it going otherwise - hence one reason why I think Scotland will go independent, if not now then not long after. Unionists in the end will, in significant enough numbers, get worn out from constantly having to defend the union, hearing how much so many people either despise, disdain or just don't care about it. It's dispiriting, exhausting, with the end goal just being maintaining a status quo which, while we like it, vast numbers will never be satisfied with and so it will be endlessly challenged. Unionists don't appear to able to sustain it for the long haul with the same intensity, and FederalUK supporters have yet to catch the fire in the same way as the Indy crowd.
    Natural in a way. Whadda we want, no change it's ok as it is, whenda we wannit, for the forseeable future.

    There will no doubt be constitutional change after this though. As SeanT said earlier, David Cameron messed up big time.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Big win for Lib Dems in Jesmond

    First fallout over Rotherham

    (On that swing Ed Miliband would be feeling VERY nervous)
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    kle4 said:

    Say UKIP win several seats and, perhaps with DUP held or something, are able to be the final numbers the Tories need for a majority (all very implausible I know) - would we see a LD style exodus from the former Labour or disaffected Ukippers who would see doing a deal with Cameron and company as a betrayal?

    I don't think UKIP would enter into a formal pact (supply & confidence perhaps) and I'm not sure that the PCP who have made it very clear to Cameron that they want the final say on accepting future Coalitions and relationships and so forth would agree to a formal pact with UKIP or vice versa

    Furthermore, I don't see the same sort of knee-jerk reaction from Kipper voters though either. Their reaction would very much depend on what the Tories agree to do in return for the S&C arrangement?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Plato said:

    SeanT said:
    The Mirror is really gunning for them. I wish Tony Parsons was still writing there. He'd burn the ink off the newsprint.
    Holiday for a long time in Pakistan eh?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    FrankBooth The polls seem to suggest the areas with consistent Yes leads are Mid Scotland and Fife and Glasgow, even if No win I would expect both those areas to vote Yes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    New thread!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    kle4 Quebec voted 51-49 to stay in Canada in 1995 and 19 years later is still there
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I read in a book review the other day that 99% of ordinary Scots were against joining the Union in 1707 and it only happened because the Scottish aristocracy were bribed into it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    TUD Well nearer 500,000 than 100,000 or even 250,000 still isn't it
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Smarmeron

    'Has Dave fixed a judge for the inquiry he "urgently" wanted?
    Edit:- should of course be picked a judge, slip of the tongue'

    Still doesn't explain why Ed has nothing to say about 1,400 child abuse cases in Rotherham.
  • 'Firstly today, our thoughts should be with the victims'. (Ed M on the day Andy Coulson was banged up.) Thousands of police hours. Multimillion pound public inquiry, poor old Hugh Grant and luvvies unlimited.

    1400 children sexually exploited in Rotherham by gangs of ahem, (Labour target voters?)
    'Silence in the air and tumbleweed clogging up the streets around Primrose Hill.'

    Vote Labour, get cnuts. Hypocritical wealthy cnuts at that.



  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    It's late at night but I have found the moment Carswell really split from Cameron:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2133233/The-strange-feud-David-Cameron-Douglas-Carswell.html
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    AndyJS said:

    I read in a book review the other day that 99% of ordinary Scots were against joining the Union in 1707 and it only happened because the Scottish aristocracy were bribed into it.

    Utter rubbish.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    I read in a book review the other day that 99% of ordinary Scots were against joining the Union in 1707 and it only happened because the Scottish aristocracy were bribed into it.

    I am not sure that polling methodology was as well developed in 1707...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523


    Let's just see. Ed isn't the impulsive sort. He may just be taking his time. And Labour's reliance on the Pakistani vote is overplayed.


    What if as well as the main grooming aspect there was another part where local businessmen paid for these girls to service their houses full of illegal workers to stop them getting aggressive with each other. Some of these local businessmen might be quite substantial - community leaders even - and might appear in photographs shaking hands with all sorts of familiar faces and handing over party donations.

    So it's not just the reliance - significant but over played as you say - it's the form that reliance took.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    isam said:

    Patrick o Flynn on newsnight seemed to be saying there were plenty more defectors coming by his refusal to talk about it

    Unless it was a double bluff!

    Seemed to me he was saying there were people considering but he didn't believe they'd take the risk until it was clearer which way the tide was flowing - hence Carswell being a big deal.

  • weejonnie said:

    Big win for Lib Dems in Jesmond

    First fallout over Rotherham

    (On that swing Ed Miliband would be feeling VERY nervous)

    Nothing to do with Rotherham at all. What Harry omitted to mention in his preview is over 40% of the electorate in the Ward are students from both Newcastle and Northumbria Universities who are yet to return for the new academic year, thereby skewing the traditional composition of the electorate.
  • Excellent pre-poll analysis, now let's see the reaction to the result: the Lib Dems not only "hold on" but a huge poistive swing means ...................... ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Roger Lord really does not look like he is giving in
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    This is where the AGW madness has led us for this winter:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2741039/Blackout-alert-Offices-factories-undergo-1970s-style-electricity-rationing-winter-stop-households-plunged-darkness.html

    It would be ironic if an ultra cold snap brought this matter to a head, and helped to bring down the coalition with it over the winter!
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