Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
She is but wouldn't it be lovely if this marked a move away from the kind of "charismatic" bullshit that personifies Boris Johnson? The content of what she said was really good. A local candidate.
I also really liked her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. Very cool.
And all because of a series of utterly avoidable mistakes by Boris and his party. A good leader would take this on the chin and learn from the mistakes. But as we've seen many times in the past, Boris is more likely to bluster, refuse responsibility, and try to ignore what happened.
She is but wouldn't it be lovely if this marked a move away from the kind of "charismatic" bullshit that personifies Boris Johnson? The content of what she said was really good. A local candidate.
I also really liked her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. Very cool.
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
Another trademark “but where’s the downside?” classic from HY.
Jon Craig also noting her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. What she said was that rather than formal agreements it happened by common sense 'at the ballot box'.
This is great: the wisest course of action to defeat this morass of Boris Johnson's blubbering, festering, regime.
Well done the LDs, their by election machine has worked again and Labour vote indeed collapsed in their favour. Tory vote also down to less than a third.
Hard not to see a VONC sooner or later in Boris now. He has to have a successful booster programme and no more lockdowns to survive
Well done the LDs, their by election machine has worked again and Labour vote indeed collapsed in their favour. Tory vote also down to less than third.
Hard not to see a VONC sooner or later in Boris now. He has to have a successful booster programme and no more lockdowns to survive
Yes, your own forecast was some way off? But credit to you for turning up to take the never popular ‘defend the lost by-election’ slot for the Tories.
Errr ... no he doesn't. That's just where you right wingers are so completely out of touch with the rest of us.
We know this is grim and we are okay to accept more restrictions. What we REALLY don't want is the NHS on its knees and bodies piling up in the streets. If it takes a lockdown to prevent that then so be it.
Oh, and what we also don't want is a leader who says one thing to us and does another.
Dunno why you want Boris gone. He’s your best asset.
Doesn’t matter who the Tories put at the top now.
I think this is true. It matters in terms of competence and managing the pandemic and economy because Johnson is inept and incompetent. But in terms of winning next time, Boris Johnson is still probably their best hope. He still has the gift of the gab and can lie his way into people's hearts. More and more people are seeing through it but like a forked-tongue snakeoil salesman, he will still convince others.
LD 17,957 Con 12,032 Lab 3,686 Green 1,738 ReformUK 1,427 UKIP 378 Reclaim 375 Loony 118 Akers Smith 95 Heritage 79 Rejoin EU 58 Freedom Alliance 57 Party Party 19 Kenward 3
No possible argument that they lost it because their right wing split. And a lot of Labour votes still to squeeze.
Nah. Any voter not squeezed by that hype ain’t being squeezed.
There was a big old effort visible on my Twitter of a campaign to shore up the Labour vote which switched from "we're best placed to win" to "we can't be embarrassed". Assuming a larger turnout at the GE - that's surely a substantial rump of Labour voters to farm from a position of (comparative) strength.
Errr ... no he doesn't. That's just where you right wingers are so completely out of touch with the rest of us.
We know this is grim and we are okay to accept more restrictions. What we REALLY don't want is the NHS on its knees and bodies piling up in the streets. If it takes a lockdown to prevent that then so be it.
Oh, and what we also don't want is a leader who says one thing to us and does another.
The booster programme is the key to protect the NHS and the economy.
Another lockdown would collapse the Tory vote even further, this time to RefUK and Tory MPs would replace Boris without question. As Boris would have to rely on Labour votes to get a lockdown through
The question is NOT whether the remaining Labour vote in North Shropshire does or does not get squeezed in the next general election. Because the likelihood is that this constituency will revert to the Tories in a GE.
The REAL question? Well, there's more than just one!
Errr ... no he doesn't. That's just where you right wingers are so completely out of touch with the rest of us.
We know this is grim and we are okay to accept more restrictions. What we REALLY don't want is the NHS on its knees and bodies piling up in the streets. If it takes a lockdown to prevent that then so be it.
Oh, and what we also don't want is a leader who says one thing to us and does another.
The booster programme is the key to protect the NHS and the economy.
Another lockdown would collapse the Tory vote even further, this time to RefUK and Tory MPs would replace Boris without question. As Boris would have to rely on Labour votes to get a lockdown through
But what if a lockdown is necessary? Are you saying that party politics trumps necessity?
For avoidance of doubt, I am not calling for a lockdown - yet. I am concerned about omicron, but we need more data. However, I think those who cry "Never! Never! Never!" to lockdowns like a demented Ian Paisley are removing what might be a vital tool from our armoury.
I hope to goodness it's a weapon we don't need to use.
Tory share down 31.1 points. LD share up 37.1 points. Lab share down 12.4 points.
So the question is how those stay-at-home Tories split at the GE. Do they stay at home? Do they come out motivated to keep Starmer out of No 10 (seems a fairly difficult sell to me; Starmer's key selling point seems to be that he doesn't really motivate anyone to do anything), or do they actively vote against the Tories?
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
I predicted a win for the Lib Dems by 4%. I was way off. Worse, I predicted a rather low turnout - 30%, and said that if turnout was higher, it would favour the Conservatives. I was really wrong on those.
Errr ... no he doesn't. That's just where you right wingers are so completely out of touch with the rest of us.
We know this is grim and we are okay to accept more restrictions. What we REALLY don't want is the NHS on its knees and bodies piling up in the streets. If it takes a lockdown to prevent that then so be it.
Oh, and what we also don't want is a leader who says one thing to us and does another.
The booster programme is the key to protect the NHS and the economy.
Another lockdown would collapse the Tory vote even further, this time to RefUK and Tory MPs would replace Boris without question. As Boris would have to rely on Labour votes to get a lockdown through
But what if a lockdown is necessary? Are you saying that party politics trumps necessity?
For avoidance of doubt, I am not calling for a lockdown - yet. I am concerned about omicron, but we need more data. However, I think those who cry "Never! Never! Never!" to lockdowns like a demented Ian Paisley are removing what might be a vital tool from our armoury.
I hope to goodness it's a weapon we don't need to use.
Seems there are some pretty clear similarities with respect to the political imperatives & impacts, of conscription in World Wars I & II on one hand, and vaccination in the current Covid Pandemic on the other.
Conscription and vaccination spit the body politic along a surprising number cultural, national, demographic, ethnic, partisan, ideological, philosophical fault lines. Which resultant social and political reactions and runctions.
The 'problem' with these right-wingers who are anti-lockdown come what may is that they're blind to the possibility that we might need one to save the NHS and people's lives.
Apparently that doesn't matter to PT, who has made posts about culling the weak, but surely more reasonable people like HYUFD can see that whilst none of us want more restrictions, we might still need them?
The fact is, as MikeL says, none of us really know how this latest strand of covid is going to pan out. Newspapers like the Telegraph and Mail have latched onto selective data from S.A. but at the moment none of us can be sure how this is going to shape up in the UK. Clearly therefore it's wise to be cautious until we do know.
And perhaps not to be too rude to scientists who study this for a living?
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
Yet the tragedy of our politics is that those we elect to take these decisions in real life are no better at this predicting lark than are we.
Infamous indeed and unlikely to be repeated because it was full of the most godawful homophobia, much of which today would be criminal offence.
I was there, and that came almost entirely from O’Grady, the so-called ‘real Labour’ candidate, who went round the seat on horse drawn wagon singing songs that would get you locked up nowadays.
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
Yes, I know.
I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.
The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
Bozo saved by Christmas. Regardless good to see some tactical voting and there should be lots of Tory MPs feeling very nervous tonight .
Raab in particular who was saved by the fear of Corbyn last time will be very worried in his Esher and Walton seat and there are countless others in similar constituencies .
Infamous indeed and unlikely to be repeated because it was full of the most godawful homophobia, much of which today would be criminal offence.
I was there, and that came almost entirely from O’Grady, the so-called ‘real Labour’ candidate, who went round the seat on horse drawn wagon singing songs that would get you locked up nowadays.
I remember it, and there certainly was a homophobic element, but Peter Tachell was also depicted as "Looney Left".
The irony is that he has had a 40 year career promoting issues such as gay rights that has probably done more than he had won and been backbench lobby fodder.
Well done to the LDs. I didn't think it was doable in NS.
Well done the LDs, their by election machine has worked again and Labour vote indeed collapsed in their favour. Tory vote also down to less than a third.
Hard not to see a VONC sooner or later in Boris now. He has to have a successful booster programme and no more lockdowns to survive
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
Dunno why you want Boris gone. He’s your best asset.
Doesn’t matter who the Tories put at the top now.
Strongly disagree. The choice of next Con leader is absolutely critical.
Truss or Hunt look like best choice. Sunak ok. Javid weak. Thereafter solid car crashes.
I still fear Johnson at the election, more than any other. As he showed on Wednesday he's very good at conning people. The lie that the UK wouldn't have any vaccines under Labour because we'd still be in the EMA is an example. The man is an utter con. A snakeoil salesman. But unfortunately people still get taken in by him.
On the other hand, paradoxically, I hope Johnson stays in No.10 right up to the election? Why? Because he's completely incompetent and so there will be more and more disasters, further chaos and cock-ups and more and more dissent in his own ranks. The tories will do what they did in 1992-7 and continue tearing themselves apart. It became clear this week that far from unifying the party, it is still riven between hard-line right-wingers and old school one nation tories. It's so ironic that Johnson lost the support of the very people who championed him as their standard bearer. But in truth Boris Johnson has never been well loved by tory MPs. He's seen as an outsider and, especially now since throwing Patterson under the bus, utterly untrustworthy.
If Boris Johnson stays in power then 2022-4 will be huge fun for those of us supporting LibDems, Labour, SNP etc.
Dunno why you want Boris gone. He’s your best asset.
Doesn’t matter who the Tories put at the top now.
Strongly disagree. The choice of next Con leader is absolutely critical.
Truss or Hunt look like best choice. Sunak ok. Javid weak. Thereafter solid car crashes.
Certainly ditching Johnson would improve the Tories prospects. He has shifted from having the electoral Midas touch to being an electoral shit magnet. It would be better for the opposition if he stays, but there is a real need for him to go for the good of the country.
That’s very respectable for a mid-term by-election - which makes the result more difficult to dismiss - this wasn’t “Tory voters staying at home” - a lot of them went out and voted for another party - as did even more Labour voters. Johnson needs to be very careful that this doesn’t turn into “anyone but the Tories” more broadly. I don’t think this can be put down to “weak candidate” either which is sometimes the case - while he wasn’t local he had a good back story. The buck stops at No.10.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing,
A fairly bizarre and unnecessarily polemic response.
35% and 34% so, as I stated, almost identical. And both were Conservative to LibDem.
1993 presaged what happened in 1997. I predict that 2021 presages what will happen in 2024.
By 1993 John Major had become a liability but was retained because he was believed to have the Midas touch at the ballot box (1992). By 2021 Boris Johnson had become a liability but was retained because he was believed to have the Midas touch at the ballot box (2019).
Dunno why you want Boris gone. He’s your best asset.
Doesn’t matter who the Tories put at the top now.
Strongly disagree. The choice of next Con leader is absolutely critical.
Truss or Hunt look like best choice. Sunak ok. Javid weak. Thereafter solid car crashes.
Certainly ditching Johnson would improve the Tories prospects. He has shifted from having the electoral Midas touch to being an electoral shit magnet. It would be better for the opposition if he stays, but there is a real need for him to go for the good of the country.
The decent human being in me agrees.
The cynical political schemer in me wants him to stay.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing,
A fairly bizarre and unnecessarily polemic response.
35% and 34% so, as I stated, almost identical. And both were Conservative to LibDem.
1993 presaged what happened in 1997. I predict that 2021 presages what will happen in 2024.
Read the post. And you will find you have misread it.
The rest of your rather abrupt manner is just par for the course, although the irony is quite funny.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
There was no general election in 2007.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing,
A fairly bizarre and unnecessarily polemic response.
35% and 34% so, as I stated, almost identical. And both were Conservative to LibDem.
1993 presaged what happened in 1997. I predict that 2021 presages what will happen in 2024.
Read the post. And you will find you have misread it.
The rest of your rather abrupt manner is just par for the course.
I'm usually very mild mannered actually. Just couldn't see why you were so dismissive of the comparison. I don't think a comparison to Scotland, which is unique and incomparable to an English seat, with a victory by "a minor party" (in fact the Scottish National Party lol!!) , is particular apposite or intelligible I'm afraid.
That’s very respectable for a mid-term by-election - which makes the result more difficult to dismiss - this wasn’t “Tory voters staying at home” - a lot of them went out and voted for another party - as did even more Labour voters. Johnson needs to be very careful that this doesn’t turn into “anyone but the Tories” more broadly. I don’t think this can be put down to “weak candidate” either which is sometimes the case - while he wasn’t local he had a good back story. The buck stops at No.10.
An “anyone but the Tories” background would make for a Con bloodbath in Scotland.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing,
A fairly bizarre and unnecessarily polemic response.
35% and 34% so, as I stated, almost identical. And both were Conservative to LibDem.
1993 presaged what happened in 1997. I predict that 2021 presages what will happen in 2024.
Read the post. And you will find you have misread it.
The rest of your rather abrupt manner is just par for the course.
You’re both right. I don’t think you can read across from the mid-90s to the current day political situation, at all. And history doesn’t repeat as precisely as that, anyhow.
But Foxy is right, above, that the Johnson brand is now badly tarnished, quite possibly beyond repair, and the Tories have some hard thinking to do over Xmas as to whether they can stand him toxifying the rest of them for much longer.
Wow. I thought the Tories would just about hold it. I hope this level of tactical voting repeats itself in the next GE.
The thing that should see the Tories panicking is this wasn’t tactical voting. For these figures to work there was a lot of direct switching going on. Even without any Labour tactical votes the LDs would still have won.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
If I were you, I'd rapidly stop digging this hole.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
There was no general election in 2007.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
A general election is an election to a legislature where every seat is voting. Scotland had one in 2007. The term is even used in UK parliamentary acts regarding SP general elections.
We became the national government. No way can such a political party be described as minor.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
Yes, I know.
I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.
The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
Actually, I think somebody did, but I can’t remember who it was. But there was definitely a PB’er who said the LDs had it in the bag and would win by a decent margin. Step forward for your medal….
That’s very respectable for a mid-term by-election - which makes the result more difficult to dismiss - this wasn’t “Tory voters staying at home” - a lot of them went out and voted for another party - as did even more Labour voters. Johnson needs to be very careful that this doesn’t turn into “anyone but the Tories” more broadly. I don’t think this can be put down to “weak candidate” either which is sometimes the case - while he wasn’t local he had a good back story. The buck stops at No.10.
An “anyone but the Tories” background would make for a Con bloodbath in Scotland.
Theresa May seemed to go down surprisingly well in Scotland in 2017. Not sure why.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing,
A fairly bizarre and unnecessarily polemic response.
35% and 34% so, as I stated, almost identical. And both were Conservative to LibDem.
1993 presaged what happened in 1997. I predict that 2021 presages what will happen in 2024.
Read the post. And you will find you have misread it.
The rest of your rather abrupt manner is just par for the course.
I'm usually very mild mannered actually. Just couldn't see why you were so dismissive of the comparison. I don't think a comparison to Scotland, which is unique and incomparable to an English seat, with a victory by "a minor party" (in fact the Scottish National Party lol!!) , is particular apposite or intelligible I'm afraid.
Usually mild mannered? Good grief. Epic self awareness fail. You’re so rude to everyone that even @rcs1000 assumed you were a troll.
If you can’t see why Glasgow works better than Christchurch having had it explained to you in what I think is fairly simple language, I won’t bother. After all, you never grasped the concept of contingency planning either, which is somewhat easier, and this failure led you to predict 27 of the last 0 lockdowns.
(And yes, in 2008 the SNP were definitely still a minor party. In many ways they still behave like one.)
Comparisons across decades are clearly not absolute but this does have the feel of 1992-7 about it.
In terms of what happened, Labour starts from a long way further back. And Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair.
On the other hand, Boris Johnson is far more inept (imho) than John Major and the country is a thousand times worse off than then. A curious irony of 1997 is that the UK was in great economic shape. In 2022 we are in parlous position on almost every front.
So the longer the tories leave Johnson at the helm the worse it's going to get, quite simply because he's not up to the job. Two inept tory PMs in a row is pretty extraordinary going.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
Yes, I know.
I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.
The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
Actually, I think somebody did, but I can’t remember who it was. But there was definitely a PB’er who said the LDs had it in the bag and would win by a decent margin. Step forward for your medal….
It wasn’t me but I did predict a 7% margin to the Lib Dem team.
Wow. I thought the Tories would just about hold it. I hope this level of tactical voting repeats itself in the next GE.
The thing that should see the Tories panicking is this wasn’t tactical voting. For these figures to work there was a lot of direct switching going on. Even without any Labour tactical votes the LDs would still have won.
Even better! Direct switching, tactical voting, whatever. We need this iteration of the Conservative Party flushed away.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
There was no general election in 2007.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
A general election is an election to a legislature where every seat is voting. Scotland had one in 2007. The term is even used in UK parliamentary acts regarding SP general elections.
We became the national government. No way can such a political party be described as minor.
Ah, so the Liberal Democrats were not a minor party in 2010? Good to know.
Anyway, I have some more sleep to get before the work of the day begins. Enjoy.
That’s very respectable for a mid-term by-election - which makes the result more difficult to dismiss - this wasn’t “Tory voters staying at home” - a lot of them went out and voted for another party - as did even more Labour voters. Johnson needs to be very careful that this doesn’t turn into “anyone but the Tories” more broadly. I don’t think this can be put down to “weak candidate” either which is sometimes the case - while he wasn’t local he had a good back story. The buck stops at No.10.
An “anyone but the Tories” background would make for a Con bloodbath in Scotland.
Theresa May seemed to go down surprisingly well in Scotland in 2017. Not sure why.
Nope.
The 2017 result was purely down to differential turnout. SNP supporters assumed it was in the bag and didn’t bother voting.
Boris Johnson is rubbish at lots of things, but outstanding at motivating opponents! 😉
As Freedland says in the Guardian, in the 90s Major was a good guy struggling with the venality of his colleagues. This time, the rot starts at the very top.
Sane Tories should see this as good news by the way. The sooner they can change leader the sooner they have a shot at some kind of coherence. This guy in charge just means you piss away an 80 seat majority with nothing to show for it.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
There was no general election in 2007.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
A general election is an election to a legislature where every seat is voting. Scotland had one in 2007. The term is even used in UK parliamentary acts regarding SP general elections.
We became the national government. No way can such a political party be described as minor.
Ah, so the Liberal Democrats were not a minor party in 2010? Good to know.
Anyway, I have some more sleep to get before the work of the day begins. Enjoy.
The Lib Dems were a tiny partner in a coalition government in 2010.
The SNP were the sole party in government in 2008.
ydoethur I think you have me confused with someone else. I've never been rude to anyone, except to chide Mr Thompson for urging a cull of the weak.The only reason you thought I was a troll was that I told you back in September that Govt departments were being told to prepare for possible lockdown and another covid wave and I said that this winter would be tough with possibly 100,000 cases a day.
I think you are one of those people who come on here just to argue with people, which is kind of sad. I don't. I avoid all confrontation and argument because I don't like the male aggression people like you display.
But for the record, no a comparison of Glasgow with North Shropshire doesn't hold. It's bizarre. And, no, the SNP are not, and were not then, "a minor party".
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
There was no general election in 2007.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
A general election is an election to a legislature where every seat is voting. Scotland had one in 2007. The term is even used in UK parliamentary acts regarding SP general elections.
We became the national government. No way can such a political party be described as minor.
Ah, so the Liberal Democrats were not a minor party in 2010? Good to know.
Anyway, I have some more sleep to get before the work of the day begins. Enjoy.
The Lib Dems were a tiny partner in a coalition government in 2010.
The SNP were the sole party in government in 2008.
Huge difference.
I don't think he knows when to back off, even when he's made a bit of a howler.
Comparing Glasgow to North Shropshire, Scottish politics with rural England, is just ... bizarre.
Guardian: What will alarm Johnson’s aides are the many reports from North Shropshire of not just annoyance with the government but some fairly significant and personal distaste for the prime minister.
Some Tories will note that the North Shropshire campaign was always going to be tricky for the government, given it was prompted by the resignation of the former environment secretary Owen Paterson, who had broken rules on paid lobbying.
But even this, many will feel, was a situation mishandled by Johnson and his advisers. Paterson only stepped down after Downing Street U-turned on an attempt to save him from punishment by trying to unilaterally rewrite the entire disciplinary system for MPs, sparking a mass of stories about lobbying and second jobs.
If, in contrast, Johnson had urged Paterson to quietly serve the 30-day suspension imposed as a punishment, that would all have ended this week, and the prime minister might have been going into Christmas in a happier position.
Sane Tories should see this as good news by the way. The sooner they can change leader the sooner they have a shot at some kind of coherence. This guy in charge just means you piss away an 80 seat majority with nothing to show for it.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
There was no general election in 2007.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
A general election is an election to a legislature where every seat is voting. Scotland had one in 2007. The term is even used in UK parliamentary acts regarding SP general elections.
We became the national government. No way can such a political party be described as minor.
Anyway, I have some more sleep to get .
None of us are at our politest when sleep deprived. Have a good catch-up and a nice day at work.
So the 7th biggest by-election swing on record, but some of the ones above it are 'oddball' results which would possibly include Bermondsey (see below).
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
Wrong comparison. Not as big a swing, but this is the one we should be comparing it to:
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
The SNP a “minor party” in 2008?!? We won the general election the previous year.
There was no general election in 2007.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
A general election is an election to a legislature where every seat is voting. Scotland had one in 2007. The term is even used in UK parliamentary acts regarding SP general elections.
We became the national government. No way can such a political party be described as minor.
Ah, so the Liberal Democrats were not a minor party in 2010? Good to know.
Anyway, I have some more sleep to get before the work of the day begins. Enjoy.
The Lib Dems were a tiny partner in a coalition government in 2010.
The SNP were the sole party in government in 2008.
Huge difference.
I don't think he knows when to back off, even when he's made a bit of a howler.
Comparing Glasgow to North Shropshire, Scottish politics with rural England, is just ... bizarre.
But the psychology is instructive.
A lot of people *want* this to be England’s Glasgow East moment of epiphany.
Telegraph: Nightmare before Christmas…humiliation for Boris Johnson
Lib Dem sources told The Telegraph that Boris Johnson’s recent Peppa Pig gaffe, below, which saw him lose his speech notes and appear to speak at random about the animation at a CBI event, had “cut through on the doorstep”, along with the Conservatives plans to make changes to the subsidy payments of farmers.
Another upside for the LibDems is that I think this by-election, linked as it is to some recent political stories with real cut through, will be noticed in a way that C&A, in calmer times and focussed on local concerns about planning and HS2, did not.
Guardian: What will alarm Johnson’s aides are the many reports from North Shropshire of not just annoyance with the government but some fairly significant and personal distaste for the prime minister.
Some Tories will note that the North Shropshire campaign was always going to be tricky for the government, given it was prompted by the resignation of the former environment secretary Owen Paterson, who had broken rules on paid lobbying.
But even this, many will feel, was a situation mishandled by Johnson and his advisers. Paterson only stepped down after Downing Street U-turned on an attempt to save him from punishment by trying to unilaterally rewrite the entire disciplinary system for MPs, sparking a mass of stories about lobbying and second jobs.
If, in contrast, Johnson had urged Paterson to quietly serve the 30-day suspension imposed as a punishment, that would all have ended this week, and the prime minister might have been going into Christmas in a happier position.
That’s a pretty good summary. All of the recent problems the Tories have had and the slump in their poll numbers are totally self inflicted. There is a crisis in leadership coming for the blue team and they need to sort it out one way or another.
Isn’t Johnson the classic “campaign in poetry, govern in prose” politician?
He’s very good at the former, very poor at the latter - and needs a much stronger team around him to cover his deficiencies.
Even Thatcher needed a Willie - and had the wit to realise it. Johnson’s “it’ll be alright on the night” has run out of road.
In the short term he’ll probably survive, but the men in grey suits need to be readying the pearl handled revolver and decanter of whisky.
You might say the things that were strengths for Boris - dragging support in from unusual areas, Brexit, and a personal loyalty among certain kinds of voter (often male, a bit gung ho about life) are now weaknesses as when that dissipates there's little there. Plus he's royally annoyed what was once a pretty solid base of voters in wealthier Tory remainers, or aspirational younger voters who are deeply unamused by the government's love of illiberal posturing, and tax rises that seem to specifically hit them, but were perhaps held in place in 2019 by the prospect of a Corbyn administration.
Obviously the easiest thing to do is sharpen up, stop needless calamaties (though whether Boris can is an open question) and try ad rebuild the 2019 coalition. But it may prove more difficult than expect - especially if other ministers start annoying some of their lost voters by jockeying and pushing policies that annoy some key voters but judge are in their interests to sell themselves to Tory members.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
Comments
Terrific result.
I also really liked her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. Very cool.
And all because of a series of utterly avoidable mistakes by Boris and his party. A good leader would take this on the chin and learn from the mistakes. But as we've seen many times in the past, Boris is more likely to bluster, refuse responsibility, and try to ignore what happened.
Con 31.64%
Lab 9.69%
Green 4.57%
ReformUK 3.75%
UKIP 0.99%
Reclaim 0.99%
Loony 0.31%
Akers Smith 0.25%
Heritage 0.21%
Rejoin EU 0.15%
Freedom Alliance 0.15%
Party Party 0.05%
Kenward 0.01%
LD maj 15.58%
Swing, Con to LD: 34.16%
This is great: the wisest course of action to defeat this morass of Boris Johnson's blubbering, festering, regime.
But story tonight is epic kicking the good folk of North Shropshire just gave Boris Johnson's Tory Party.
In one of the bulwarks of England, and bastions of the Tory Party.
Wake up and smell the coffee. Or the scrumpy.
Hard not to see a VONC sooner or later in Boris now. He has to have a successful booster programme and no more lockdowns to survive
We know this is grim and we are okay to accept more restrictions. What we REALLY don't want is the NHS on its knees and bodies piling up in the streets. If it takes a lockdown to prevent that then so be it.
Oh, and what we also don't want is a leader who says one thing to us and does another.
LD share up 37.1 points.
Lab share down 12.4 points.
Another lockdown would collapse the Tory vote even further, this time to RefUK and Tory MPs would replace Boris without question. As Boris would have to rely on Labour votes to get a lockdown through
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Bermondsey_by-election
The REAL question? Well, there's more than just one!
For avoidance of doubt, I am not calling for a lockdown - yet. I am concerned about omicron, but we need more data. However, I think those who cry "Never! Never! Never!" to lockdowns like a demented Ian Paisley are removing what might be a vital tool from our armoury.
I hope to goodness it's a weapon we don't need to use.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
LAB 79
SNP 37
CON 5
PLC 3
GRN 1
IND 1
LibDem maj.
The Tories’ five are two in Lincs, two in Essex, and one somewhere north of Birmingham.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/conservative
And it is a very good morning for the country, as Boris Johnson is finished. That swing in that seat is unsurvivable.
Even if he tries to carry on, his authority is so broken he will achieve absolutely nothing by doing so.
Conscription and vaccination spit the body politic along a surprising number cultural, national, demographic, ethnic, partisan, ideological, philosophical fault lines. Which resultant social and political reactions and runctions.
The 'problem' with these right-wingers who are anti-lockdown come what may is that they're blind to the possibility that we might need one to save the NHS and people's lives.
Apparently that doesn't matter to PT, who has made posts about culling the weak, but surely more reasonable people like HYUFD can see that whilst none of us want more restrictions, we might still need them?
The fact is, as MikeL says, none of us really know how this latest strand of covid is going to pan out. Newspapers like the Telegraph and Mail have latched onto selective data from S.A. but at the moment none of us can be sure how this is going to shape up in the UK. Clearly therefore it's wise to be cautious until we do know.
And perhaps not to be too rude to scientists who study this for a living?
https://www.conservativehome.com
If he moves elsewhere and Labour put in a duffer then you’ll be right.
Anthony Browne
Elliot Colburn
Mary Robinson
Alex Chalk
Caroline Ansell
Dominic Raab
Angela Richardson
Maria Caulfield
Stephen Hammond
Some Tories are complete idiots.
Truss or Hunt look like best choice.
Sunak ok.
Javid weak.
Thereafter solid car crashes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
It's one of the biggest ever by-election swings, roughly on a par with Christchurch in 1993. If that comparison doesn't make tories nervous, given what it presaged, then it bloody well should.
I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.
The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
Raab in particular who was saved by the fear of Corbyn last time will be very worried in his Esher and Walton seat and there are countless others in similar constituencies .
The irony is that he has had a 40 year career promoting issues such as gay rights that has probably done more than he had won and been backbench lobby fodder.
Well done to the LDs. I didn't think it was doable in NS.
If the Tank Commander is losing his religion…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Glasgow_East_by-election
That presaged both the collapse of the Brown government and the implosion of Scottish Labour. Even though it was won back at the next election (as this will be, incidentally).
It spoke of the growing disillusionment and resentment with the incumbent party and its ineptitude, failure and corruption. And it also said people were looking at minor parties as serious alternatives.
And so does this.
The big difference is there is an easy way for Tory MPs to remove Johnson, while it’s in practice impossible to remove a Labour leader who isn’t willing to leave.
On the other hand, paradoxically, I hope Johnson stays in No.10 right up to the election? Why? Because he's completely incompetent and so there will be more and more disasters, further chaos and cock-ups and more and more dissent in his own ranks. The tories will do what they did in 1992-7 and continue tearing themselves apart. It became clear this week that far from unifying the party, it is still riven between hard-line right-wingers and old school one nation tories. It's so ironic that Johnson lost the support of the very people who championed him as their standard bearer. But in truth Boris Johnson has never been well loved by tory MPs. He's seen as an outsider and, especially now since throwing Patterson under the bus, utterly untrustworthy.
If Boris Johnson stays in power then 2022-4 will be huge fun for those of us supporting LibDems, Labour, SNP etc.
35% and 34% so, as I stated, almost identical. And both were Conservative to LibDem.
1993 presaged what happened in 1997. I predict that 2021 presages what will happen in 2024.
By 1993 John Major had become a liability but was retained because he was believed to have the Midas touch at the ballot box (1992). By 2021 Boris Johnson had become a liability but was retained because he was believed to have the Midas touch at the ballot box (2019).
The cynical political schemer in me wants him to stay.
PB dominated by the latter type of personality.
The rest of your rather abrupt manner is just par for the course, although the irony is quite funny.
You had become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Just as the Liberal Democrats were in government less than seven years ago.
But yes, you were still definitely a minor party.
But Foxy is right, above, that the Johnson brand is now badly tarnished, quite possibly beyond repair, and the Tories have some hard thinking to do over Xmas as to whether they can stand him toxifying the rest of them for much longer.
We became the national government. No way can such a political party be described as minor.
If you can’t see why Glasgow works better than Christchurch having had it explained to you in what I think is fairly simple language, I won’t bother. After all, you never grasped the concept of contingency planning either, which is somewhat easier, and this failure led you to predict 27 of the last 0 lockdowns.
(And yes, in 2008 the SNP were definitely still a minor party. In many ways they still behave like one.)
In terms of what happened, Labour starts from a long way further back. And Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair.
On the other hand, Boris Johnson is far more inept (imho) than John Major and the country is a thousand times worse off than then. A curious irony of 1997 is that the UK was in great economic shape. In 2022 we are in parlous position on almost every front.
So the longer the tories leave Johnson at the helm the worse it's going to get, quite simply because he's not up to the job. Two inept tory PMs in a row is pretty extraordinary going.
Anyway, I have some more sleep to get before the work of the day begins. Enjoy.
The 2017 result was purely down to differential turnout. SNP supporters assumed it was in the bag and didn’t bother voting.
Boris Johnson is rubbish at lots of things, but outstanding at motivating opponents! 😉
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1471705791707111428?s=20
The SNP were the sole party in government in 2008.
Huge difference.
I think you are one of those people who come on here just to argue with people, which is kind of sad. I don't. I avoid all confrontation and argument because I don't like the male aggression people like you display.
But for the record, no a comparison of Glasgow with North Shropshire doesn't hold. It's bizarre. And, no, the SNP are not, and were not then, "a minor party".
Make yourself a cup of tea and take a breather.
Comparing Glasgow to North Shropshire, Scottish politics with rural England, is just ... bizarre.
Some Tories will note that the North Shropshire campaign was always going to be tricky for the government, given it was prompted by the resignation of the former environment secretary Owen Paterson, who had broken rules on paid lobbying.
But even this, many will feel, was a situation mishandled by Johnson and his advisers. Paterson only stepped down after Downing Street U-turned on an attempt to save him from punishment by trying to unilaterally rewrite the entire disciplinary system for MPs, sparking a mass of stories about lobbying and second jobs.
If, in contrast, Johnson had urged Paterson to quietly serve the 30-day suspension imposed as a punishment, that would all have ended this week, and the prime minister might have been going into Christmas in a happier position.
This is your big chance sane Tories.
Don’t come crying to us if/when you fluff it. (Video of England’s silver medal penalty performance plays in background.)
A lot of people *want* this to be England’s Glasgow East moment of epiphany.
Lib Dem sources told The Telegraph that Boris Johnson’s recent Peppa Pig gaffe, below, which saw him lose his speech notes and appear to speak at random about the animation at a CBI event, had “cut through on the doorstep”, along with the Conservatives plans to make changes to the subsidy payments of farmers.
He’s very good at the former, very poor at the latter - and needs a much stronger team around him to cover his deficiencies.
Even Thatcher needed a Willie - and had the wit to realise it. Johnson’s “it’ll be alright on the night” has run out of road.
In the short term he’ll probably survive, but the men in grey suits need to be readying the pearl handled revolver and decanter of whisky.
Obviously the easiest thing to do is sharpen up, stop needless calamaties (though whether Boris can is an open question) and try ad rebuild the 2019 coalition. But it may prove more difficult than expect - especially if other ministers start annoying some of their lost voters by jockeying and pushing policies that annoy some key voters but judge are in their interests to sell themselves to Tory members.