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As we await the formal result the latest betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,839
edited December 2021 in General
imageAs we await the formal result the latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Will Boris go of his own accord or will they let Graham Brady have to risk a hernia?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    North Shrop Hop
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    edited December 2021
    Raab's gone at the next GE.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Pulpstar said:

    Raab's gone at the next GE.

    Good point
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited December 2021
    Glad I had a tactical siesta yesterday.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    “Given Brexit has happened there isn’t that sense of ‘oh I’m a lifelong Tory so I’ve got to back the Prime Minister to make it happen’,” one Lib Dem source said. “In fact, I’ve only had one voter mention Brexit to me and that was only in the context of ‘oh now that Brexit has happened I can vote for you lot again’.”

    https://bylinetimes.com/2021/12/15/lost-without-brexit-north-shropshire-by-election-shows-tories-really-dont-have-a-message/

    For every day that passes, I become more and more convinced 2019 will not be repeated
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    “Given Brexit has happened there isn’t that sense of ‘oh I’m a lifelong Tory so I’ve got to back the Prime Minister to make it happen’,” one Lib Dem source said. “In fact, I’ve only had one voter mention Brexit to me and that was only in the context of ‘oh now that Brexit has happened I can vote for you lot again’.”

    https://bylinetimes.com/2021/12/15/lost-without-brexit-north-shropshire-by-election-shows-tories-really-dont-have-a-message/

    For every day that passes, I become more and more convinced 2019 will not be repeated

    The greater the pack of lies you build it on, the greater it’s fall
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,576
    Perhaps the last few years - when Tory governments weren't thrashed in by-elections - was just a blip. This just seems like a return to normality to me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    Congratulations LDs. A swing of perhaps 30%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    edited December 2021
    Thrasher "Astonishing result"

    Mentions / swings
    Newbury 28.4%
    Eastleigh (1990s) 21.5%
    Eastbourne 20.0%

    The Tories would lose all those to the Lib Dems tonight if there was a by-election in any of them.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Lib Dems surely onto take Newbury in 2024
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Politics is still certainly far from boring.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    If the big Lib Dem claims are correct, this is pretty huge. It would imply a 30%+ swing.

    We're not looking at simple mid-term swings, but at 1992-97 swings. Christchurch was 35.4%, Newbury 28.4% in that era.

    Brecon and Radnor in 2019 was 12%. Eastbourne in 1990 was 20.0%.

    It's not irretrievable for the Tories but they need to be pretty radical in their response. It's not "keep calm and carry on" here.

    Seriously. Though drunk I think in serious. With Fanciful Brexit promises, fuck business, high tax money splurge, promises of high wages, and levelling up as full of promise but what satisfies that promise, stop and reverse decades globalisation, Johnson has murdered the roots that always held the Tory tree up. Going back they have no credibility, just broken promises and no credibility. Carrying on with this just broken promises and no credibility. The only place they can go is opposition, and hope people quickly forget.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,421
    Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    RandallFlagg said:

    Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.

    If Tories down to 250 or less in house, hard to imagine they will have much voting friend for anything from nationalist bloc
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 127
    Congrats to the LDs if the rumours are true. Still have Boris nailed on a slim majority in 2024.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Ld 1.02/1.03
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    RandallFlagg said:

    Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.

    Tactical voting doesn't work so well at GEs.

    I think it's about 50/50 we'll get a Lab/SNP coalition next election.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    JBriskin3 said:

    RandallFlagg said:

    Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.

    Tactical voting doesn't work so well at GEs.

    I think it's about 50/50 we'll get a Lab/SNP coalition next election.
    It worked in 1997
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    RandallFlagg said:

    Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.

    Tactical voting doesn't work so well at GEs.

    I think it's about 50/50 we'll get a Lab/SNP coalition next election.
    It worked in 1997
    Eh? Everyone voted Blair in 97 even tories.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Ld 1.01/1.02
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,541
    Ploppikins said:

    Congrats to the LDs if the rumours are true. Still have Boris nailed on a slim majority in 2024.

    The Tories need to be really serious about the size of the swing here if the bold LD claims are right.

    The indication is Christchurch and Newbury levels, rather than general midterm discontent.

    They need really radical change, and Johnson cannot have the personality transplant needed to do that. MPs need to get out the Basildon Bond.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    JBriskin3 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    RandallFlagg said:

    Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.

    Tactical voting doesn't work so well at GEs.

    I think it's about 50/50 we'll get a Lab/SNP coalition next election.
    It worked in 1997
    Eh? Everyone voted Blair in 97 even tories.
    Not in seats like Newbury
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    LDs now unbackable

    The yellows have it, the yellows have it

    Unlock!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Ploppikins said:

    Congrats to the LDs if the rumours are true. Still have Boris nailed on a slim majority in 2024.

    The Tories need to be really serious about the size of the swing here if the bold LD claims are right.

    The indication is Christchurch and Newbury levels, rather than general midterm discontent.

    They need really radical change, and Johnson cannot have the personality transplant needed to do that. MPs need to get out the Basildon Bond.
    The swing in Chesham and Amersham was 25.2%. I think that was undersold a bit in hindsight because of favourable LD demographics and so forth.
    This is more than that.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Time to pop some money on no overall majority
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    ping said:

    LDs now unbackable

    The yellows have it, the yellows have it

    Unlock!

    We bloody won 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Blue wall? Ha ha ha ha Get the mallet out. Get the mallet out. What’s our leaders name again? Ed thingy. Get the mallet out and knock down the blue wall sir. Get out the hallway. Get out the door. We’ve got our mallet out - and it’s coming to get you. Cause ain’t no use or ornament now that blue wall, now then this bish bash bosh woo I flipping actually can’t contain myself
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    RandallFlagg said:

    Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.

    Tactical voting doesn't work so well at GEs.

    I think it's about 50/50 we'll get a Lab/SNP coalition next election.
    It worked in 1997
    Eh? Everyone voted Blair in 97 even tories.
    Not in seats like Newbury
    I bow to your superior psephology. I think picking a Blair landslide for examples is a little strange though.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309
    Big result.

    So the first question is what this means for the PM. As I've said before, he won't resign (he has no viable post-Prime Ministerial career given his world king ambitions) and I don't think Tory MPs have the courage to force a leadership election right now (they'll use the pandemic as an excuse, but the real reason is that there aren't enough MPs with the guts to risk their careers on fixing a problem now when they can hold out for a while more and hope the problem resolves itself). However, the loss obviously creates a really damaging narrative that will undermine him over the next few months; I'd expect anonymous press briefings creating regular mini-scandals, not quite enough to shake MPs into action but enough that he's constantly having to defend himself instead of governing. This keeps him in a holding pattern until Truss or Rishi feel comfortable enough to launch a leadership challenge.

    Next question is what Johnson's response will be. I suspect he will throw CCHQ under the bus and blame it on a badly run local campaign to try and appease the membership (while the Conservative candidate was strong, I have heard rumours that CCHQ was very bullish in the last few days of the campaign and diverting activists asking for phone bank access to nearby local elections instead). Blaming CCHQ does nothing to solve the problem, of course, but it's a useful outlet for internal party spats that will break out over the next few days.

    Last question is whether this results spells disaster for the Conservatives in other seats. I'm sceptical that we can extrapolate too much, as the election took place in fairly unique circumstances (disgraced former MP resigning after lobbying scandal, Prime Minister embroiled in his own scandal, the ongoing pandemic) which are unlikely to be applicable to other key target seats at the next election. Long term, I think the Conservatives have core strengths (their elderly and reliable base, helpful seat boundaries, a well-dispersed coalition) that won't be changed by this result. So I think it's premature to write up their political epitaph at this point.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    ping said:

    Ld 1.02/1.03

    Free money.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,541
    Pulpstar said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Ploppikins said:

    Congrats to the LDs if the rumours are true. Still have Boris nailed on a slim majority in 2024.

    The Tories need to be really serious about the size of the swing here if the bold LD claims are right.

    The indication is Christchurch and Newbury levels, rather than general midterm discontent.

    They need really radical change, and Johnson cannot have the personality transplant needed to do that. MPs need to get out the Basildon Bond.
    The swing in Chesham and Amersham was 25.2%. I think that was undersold a bit in hindsight because of favourable LD demographics and so forth.
    This is more than that.
    Absolutely. Chesham could be written off as a weird seat - elitist Remainer commuters who were the epitome of Cameron Conservative rather than Johnson Conservative, with a bloody great railway line that was going to carve them up but not actually stop there.

    Shropshire North isn't like that. It's more Leave than the country as a whole by a margin, not a SE England seat, just rock solid Tory shire.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    edited December 2021
    Is it a lockdown gathering quiz team or it’s a actual band name?

    Busted Johnson and the Blue Wails. 🥳

    I wish libdems weren’t winning I wouldn’t have stayed up, now I’m so bloody drunk.
    I’m going to have some pickled eggs
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,305
    Looks like and Ind gain from Labour in Bridgend.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    I wonder if Rishi Sunak's return is not only about reassuring the hospitality business community, but to also be here in the UK (pref with any plotters) when the 1922 letters start dropping into Graham Brady's in-tray.....
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/19788472.live-blog-north-shropshire-by-election/

    Great pic of a moving company van, apparently near the scene in Shrewbury:

    Johnsons Care * Integrity * Respect
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,541
    Bournville said:

    Big result.

    So the first question is what this means for the PM. As I've said before, he won't resign (he has no viable post-Prime Ministerial career given his world king ambitions) and I don't think Tory MPs have the courage to force a leadership election right now (they'll use the pandemic as an excuse, but the real reason is that there aren't enough MPs with the guts to risk their careers on fixing a problem now when they can hold out for a while more and hope the problem resolves itself). However, the loss obviously creates a really damaging narrative that will undermine him over the next few months; I'd expect anonymous press briefings creating regular mini-scandals, not quite enough to shake MPs into action but enough that he's constantly having to defend himself instead of governing. This keeps him in a holding pattern until Truss or Rishi feel comfortable enough to launch a leadership challenge.

    Next question is what Johnson's response will be. I suspect he will throw CCHQ under the bus and blame it on a badly run local campaign to try and appease the membership (while the Conservative candidate was strong, I have heard rumours that CCHQ was very bullish in the last few days of the campaign and diverting activists asking for phone bank access to nearby local elections instead). Blaming CCHQ does nothing to solve the problem, of course, but it's a useful outlet for internal party spats that will break out over the next few days.

    Last question is whether this results spells disaster for the Conservatives in other seats. I'm sceptical that we can extrapolate too much, as the election took place in fairly unique circumstances (disgraced former MP resigning after lobbying scandal, Prime Minister embroiled in his own scandal, the ongoing pandemic) which are unlikely to be applicable to other key target seats at the next election. Long term, I think the Conservatives have core strengths (their elderly and reliable base, helpful seat boundaries, a well-dispersed coalition) that won't be changed by this result. So I think it's premature to write up their political epitaph at this point.

    Sunak and Truss don't need to launch leadership challenges under the current Tory rules. They need 15% of MPs to write to the 1922 to trigger a vote of no confidence.

    If a majority VONC Johnson, he cannot even compete in a leadership election, allowing Sunak and Truss (and anyone else) to say "oh, what a shame - but since Boris is no longer available..."

    If a sizeable minority VONC him, that's trickier. In theory, he is safe for a year. In practice, it is a potentially very difficult stand off that could go different ways.

    But neither of them need to throw down the gauntlet - we need to watch individual MPs getting out the writing paper.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    ping said:

    LDs now unbackable

    The yellows have it, the yellows have it

    Unlock!

    Can I say Ping, you helped make it a brilliant night pinging your things.

    Do you have Chinese ancestors too, or related to machine in meaning of life?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,541
    slade said:

    Looks like and Ind gain from Labour in Bridgend.

    Hold the front page.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    MoonRabbit said:

    ping said:

    LDs now unbackable

    The yellows have it, the yellows have it

    Unlock!

    Can I say Ping, you helped make it a brilliant night pinging your things.

    Do you have Chinese ancestors too, or related to machine in meaning of life?
    Lol. No. I used to be @Pong but lost my login at some point. So reregistered as @Ping without putting much thought into the name.

    Pong was the name of a character - an awful chef - in a little known, but hilarious book, the ascent of rum doodle.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Bournville said:

    Big result.

    So the first question is what this means for the PM. As I've said before, he won't resign (he has no viable post-Prime Ministerial career given his world king ambitions) and I don't think Tory MPs have the courage to force a leadership election right now (they'll use the pandemic as an excuse, but the real reason is that there aren't enough MPs with the guts to risk their careers on fixing a problem now when they can hold out for a while more and hope the problem resolves itself). However, the loss obviously creates a really damaging narrative that will undermine him over the next few months; I'd expect anonymous press briefings creating regular mini-scandals, not quite enough to shake MPs into action but enough that he's constantly having to defend himself instead of governing. This keeps him in a holding pattern until Truss or Rishi feel comfortable enough to launch a leadership challenge.

    Next question is what Johnson's response will be. I suspect he will throw CCHQ under the bus and blame it on a badly run local campaign to try and appease the membership (while the Conservative candidate was strong, I have heard rumours that CCHQ was very bullish in the last few days of the campaign and diverting activists asking for phone bank access to nearby local elections instead). Blaming CCHQ does nothing to solve the problem, of course, but it's a useful outlet for internal party spats that will break out over the next few days.

    Last question is whether this results spells disaster for the Conservatives in other seats. I'm sceptical that we can extrapolate too much, as the election took place in fairly unique circumstances (disgraced former MP resigning after lobbying scandal, Prime Minister embroiled in his own scandal, the ongoing pandemic) which are unlikely to be applicable to other key target seats at the next election. Long term, I think the Conservatives have core strengths (their elderly and reliable base, helpful seat boundaries, a well-dispersed coalition) that won't be changed by this result. So I think it's premature to write up their political epitaph at this point.

    Sunak and Truss don't need to launch leadership challenges under the current Tory rules. They need 15% of MPs to write to the 1922 to trigger a vote of no confidence.

    If a majority VONC Johnson, he cannot even compete in a leadership election, allowing Sunak and Truss (and anyone else) to say "oh, what a shame - but since Boris is no longer available..."

    If a sizeable minority VONC him, that's trickier. In theory, he is safe for a year. In practice, it is a potentially very difficult stand off that could go different ways.

    But neither of them need to throw down the gauntlet - we need to watch individual MPs getting out the writing paper.
    Theoretically, yes - but in reality, one of the biggest mental barriers for an MP sending in a letter is fear of the unknown. If you're an MP who is thinking of sending your letter because you're worried Johnson will lead the party to defeat at the next election, you don't want to risk his replacement being someone who is even less popular with the electorate but appeals to Tory members. So, if you're an ambitious cabinet minister who wants to get rid of Boris, you don't just send in your letter and hope for the best - you have to give those MPs confidence that you could do the job, that you're an electoral asset, and that their careers will be safe if you're in charge. Which means you have to campaign, even if it's informally, to get those MPs on your side before you ask them to send their letters in at the most opportune time for you.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,541
    Bournville said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Bournville said:

    Big result.

    So the first question is what this means for the PM. As I've said before, he won't resign (he has no viable post-Prime Ministerial career given his world king ambitions) and I don't think Tory MPs have the courage to force a leadership election right now (they'll use the pandemic as an excuse, but the real reason is that there aren't enough MPs with the guts to risk their careers on fixing a problem now when they can hold out for a while more and hope the problem resolves itself). However, the loss obviously creates a really damaging narrative that will undermine him over the next few months; I'd expect anonymous press briefings creating regular mini-scandals, not quite enough to shake MPs into action but enough that he's constantly having to defend himself instead of governing. This keeps him in a holding pattern until Truss or Rishi feel comfortable enough to launch a leadership challenge.

    Next question is what Johnson's response will be. I suspect he will throw CCHQ under the bus and blame it on a badly run local campaign to try and appease the membership (while the Conservative candidate was strong, I have heard rumours that CCHQ was very bullish in the last few days of the campaign and diverting activists asking for phone bank access to nearby local elections instead). Blaming CCHQ does nothing to solve the problem, of course, but it's a useful outlet for internal party spats that will break out over the next few days.

    Last question is whether this results spells disaster for the Conservatives in other seats. I'm sceptical that we can extrapolate too much, as the election took place in fairly unique circumstances (disgraced former MP resigning after lobbying scandal, Prime Minister embroiled in his own scandal, the ongoing pandemic) which are unlikely to be applicable to other key target seats at the next election. Long term, I think the Conservatives have core strengths (their elderly and reliable base, helpful seat boundaries, a well-dispersed coalition) that won't be changed by this result. So I think it's premature to write up their political epitaph at this point.

    Sunak and Truss don't need to launch leadership challenges under the current Tory rules. They need 15% of MPs to write to the 1922 to trigger a vote of no confidence.

    If a majority VONC Johnson, he cannot even compete in a leadership election, allowing Sunak and Truss (and anyone else) to say "oh, what a shame - but since Boris is no longer available..."

    If a sizeable minority VONC him, that's trickier. In theory, he is safe for a year. In practice, it is a potentially very difficult stand off that could go different ways.

    But neither of them need to throw down the gauntlet - we need to watch individual MPs getting out the writing paper.
    Theoretically, yes - but in reality, one of the biggest mental barriers for an MP sending in a letter is fear of the unknown. If you're an MP who is thinking of sending your letter because you're worried Johnson will lead the party to defeat at the next election, you don't want to risk his replacement being someone who is even less popular with the electorate but appeals to Tory members. So, if you're an ambitious cabinet minister who wants to get rid of Boris, you don't just send in your letter and hope for the best - you have to give those MPs confidence that you could do the job, that you're an electoral asset, and that their careers will be safe if you're in charge. Which means you have to campaign, even if it's informally, to get those MPs on your side before you ask them to send their letters in at the most opportune time for you.
    I don't think you do. Friends can do some things for you, but MPs appreciate what the options will be if they VONC. Also, timings of letters don't matter. You just write in and they sit on file until the chairman of the 1922 has (I think) 54 letters.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    edited December 2021
    ping said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    ping said:

    LDs now unbackable

    The yellows have it, the yellows have it

    Unlock!

    Can I say Ping, you helped make it a brilliant night pinging your things.

    Do you have Chinese ancestors too, or related to machine in meaning of life?
    Lol. No. I used to be @Pong but lost my login at some point. So reregistered as @Ping without putting much thought into the name.

    Pong was the name of a character - an awful chef - in a little known, but hilarious book, the ascent of rum doodle.
    Brilliant answer. 👍🏻

    As always on PB cannot second guess answers. The reality is complete good but mind blowing
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ping said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    ping said:

    LDs now unbackable

    The yellows have it, the yellows have it

    Unlock!

    Can I say Ping, you helped make it a brilliant night pinging your things.

    Do you have Chinese ancestors too, or related to machine in meaning of life?
    Lol. No. I used to be @Pong but lost my login at some point. So reregistered as @Ping without putting much thought into the name.

    Pong was the name of a character - an awful chef - in a little known, but hilarious book, the ascent of rum doodle.
    PongPing PB's YingYang
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Herself has entered the building . . . expect declaration (fairly) shortly . . .
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Bournville said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Bournville said:

    Big result.

    So the first question is what this means for the PM. As I've said before, he won't resign (he has no viable post-Prime Ministerial career given his world king ambitions) and I don't think Tory MPs have the courage to force a leadership election right now (they'll use the pandemic as an excuse, but the real reason is that there aren't enough MPs with the guts to risk their careers on fixing a problem now when they can hold out for a while more and hope the problem resolves itself). However, the loss obviously creates a really damaging narrative that will undermine him over the next few months; I'd expect anonymous press briefings creating regular mini-scandals, not quite enough to shake MPs into action but enough that he's constantly having to defend himself instead of governing. This keeps him in a holding pattern until Truss or Rishi feel comfortable enough to launch a leadership challenge.

    Next question is what Johnson's response will be. I suspect he will throw CCHQ under the bus and blame it on a badly run local campaign to try and appease the membership (while the Conservative candidate was strong, I have heard rumours that CCHQ was very bullish in the last few days of the campaign and diverting activists asking for phone bank access to nearby local elections instead). Blaming CCHQ does nothing to solve the problem, of course, but it's a useful outlet for internal party spats that will break out over the next few days.

    Last question is whether this results spells disaster for the Conservatives in other seats. I'm sceptical that we can extrapolate too much, as the election took place in fairly unique circumstances (disgraced former MP resigning after lobbying scandal, Prime Minister embroiled in his own scandal, the ongoing pandemic) which are unlikely to be applicable to other key target seats at the next election. Long term, I think the Conservatives have core strengths (their elderly and reliable base, helpful seat boundaries, a well-dispersed coalition) that won't be changed by this result. So I think it's premature to write up their political epitaph at this point.

    Sunak and Truss don't need to launch leadership challenges under the current Tory rules. They need 15% of MPs to write to the 1922 to trigger a vote of no confidence.

    If a majority VONC Johnson, he cannot even compete in a leadership election, allowing Sunak and Truss (and anyone else) to say "oh, what a shame - but since Boris is no longer available..."

    If a sizeable minority VONC him, that's trickier. In theory, he is safe for a year. In practice, it is a potentially very difficult stand off that could go different ways.

    But neither of them need to throw down the gauntlet - we need to watch individual MPs getting out the writing paper.
    Theoretically, yes - but in reality, one of the biggest mental barriers for an MP sending in a letter is fear of the unknown. If you're an MP who is thinking of sending your letter because you're worried Johnson will lead the party to defeat at the next election, you don't want to risk his replacement being someone who is even less popular with the electorate but appeals to Tory members. So, if you're an ambitious cabinet minister who wants to get rid of Boris, you don't just send in your letter and hope for the best - you have to give those MPs confidence that you could do the job, that you're an electoral asset, and that their careers will be safe if you're in charge. Which means you have to campaign, even if it's informally, to get those MPs on your side before you ask them to send their letters in at the most opportune time for you.
    I don't think you do. Friends can do some things for you, but MPs appreciate what the options will be if they VONC. Also, timings of letters don't matter. You just write in and they sit on file until the chairman of the 1922 has (I think) 54 letters.
    Hmm, I think you have a higher opinion of Tory MPs than I do! After it took them 2 years to remove May, I just cannot see them having the courage to coup a PM with a large majority without being confident they will win and his replacement will be on their side. And yes, they do accumulate until they reach 15% of the Parliamentary party, but if you seriously intend to replace the PM you'd prefer that figure to be met at the best time for you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    @Seashantyirish2 Think there's any hope for the Hawks up against LA this week ?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Pulpstar said:

    @Seashantyirish2 Think there's any hope for the Hawks up against LA this week ?

    It springs eternal. But considering that Tyler Lockett is now on COVID reserve, my guess is, not really.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Seashantyirish2 Think there's any hope for the Hawks up against LA this week ?

    It springs eternal. But considering that Tyler Lockett is now on COVID reserve, my guess is, not really.
    Yeah. I've got DK Metcalfe, but I could also play Van Jefferson in my team this week. Butker getting some points for me this evening.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Pulpstar said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Seashantyirish2 Think there's any hope for the Hawks up against LA this week ?

    It springs eternal. But considering that Tyler Lockett is now on COVID reserve, my guess is, not really.
    Yeah. I've got DK Metcalfe, but I could also play Van Jefferson in my team this week. Butker getting some points for me this evening.
    I know almost as much about NFL as I do about Imperial Cricket Federation, or whatever its called.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Bournville said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Bournville said:

    Big result.

    So the first question is what this means for the PM. As I've said before, he won't resign (he has no viable post-Prime Ministerial career given his world king ambitions) and I don't think Tory MPs have the courage to force a leadership election right now (they'll use the pandemic as an excuse, but the real reason is that there aren't enough MPs with the guts to risk their careers on fixing a problem now when they can hold out for a while more and hope the problem resolves itself). However, the loss obviously creates a really damaging narrative that will undermine him over the next few months; I'd expect anonymous press briefings creating regular mini-scandals, not quite enough to shake MPs into action but enough that he's constantly having to defend himself instead of governing. This keeps him in a holding pattern until Truss or Rishi feel comfortable enough to launch a leadership challenge.

    Next question is what Johnson's response will be. I suspect he will throw CCHQ under the bus and blame it on a badly run local campaign to try and appease the membership (while the Conservative candidate was strong, I have heard rumours that CCHQ was very bullish in the last few days of the campaign and diverting activists asking for phone bank access to nearby local elections instead). Blaming CCHQ does nothing to solve the problem, of course, but it's a useful outlet for internal party spats that will break out over the next few days.

    Last question is whether this results spells disaster for the Conservatives in other seats. I'm sceptical that we can extrapolate too much, as the election took place in fairly unique circumstances (disgraced former MP resigning after lobbying scandal, Prime Minister embroiled in his own scandal, the ongoing pandemic) which are unlikely to be applicable to other key target seats at the next election. Long term, I think the Conservatives have core strengths (their elderly and reliable base, helpful seat boundaries, a well-dispersed coalition) that won't be changed by this result. So I think it's premature to write up their political epitaph at this point.

    Sunak and Truss don't need to launch leadership challenges under the current Tory rules. They need 15% of MPs to write to the 1922 to trigger a vote of no confidence.

    If a majority VONC Johnson, he cannot even compete in a leadership election, allowing Sunak and Truss (and anyone else) to say "oh, what a shame - but since Boris is no longer available..."

    If a sizeable minority VONC him, that's trickier. In theory, he is safe for a year. In practice, it is a potentially very difficult stand off that could go different ways.

    But neither of them need to throw down the gauntlet - we need to watch individual MPs getting out the writing paper.
    Theoretically, yes - but in reality, one of the biggest mental barriers for an MP sending in a letter is fear of the unknown. If you're an MP who is thinking of sending your letter because you're worried Johnson will lead the party to defeat at the next election, you don't want to risk his replacement being someone who is even less popular with the electorate but appeals to Tory members. So, if you're an ambitious cabinet minister who wants to get rid of Boris, you don't just send in your letter and hope for the best - you have to give those MPs confidence that you could do the job, that you're an electoral asset, and that their careers will be safe if you're in charge. Which means you have to campaign, even if it's informally, to get those MPs on your side before you ask them to send their letters in at the most opportune time for you.
    And as many know, Boris Johnson can (in the words of Eddy Mair) "be a nasty piece of work" if (as a junior MP) you are aspiring to a career in the Tory party its a high risk strategy to stand up at the wrong moment.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    In USA there used to be a TV commercial for a hair coloring that proclaimed, "Only your hair dresser knows for sure".

    In the cold light of dawn, only Sir Graham Brady will know for sure.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,200
    Whistles
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,541
    Bournville said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Bournville said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Bournville said:

    Big result.

    So the first question is what this means for the PM. As I've said before, he won't resign (he has no viable post-Prime Ministerial career given his world king ambitions) and I don't think Tory MPs have the courage to force a leadership election right now (they'll use the pandemic as an excuse, but the real reason is that there aren't enough MPs with the guts to risk their careers on fixing a problem now when they can hold out for a while more and hope the problem resolves itself). However, the loss obviously creates a really damaging narrative that will undermine him over the next few months; I'd expect anonymous press briefings creating regular mini-scandals, not quite enough to shake MPs into action but enough that he's constantly having to defend himself instead of governing. This keeps him in a holding pattern until Truss or Rishi feel comfortable enough to launch a leadership challenge.

    Next question is what Johnson's response will be. I suspect he will throw CCHQ under the bus and blame it on a badly run local campaign to try and appease the membership (while the Conservative candidate was strong, I have heard rumours that CCHQ was very bullish in the last few days of the campaign and diverting activists asking for phone bank access to nearby local elections instead). Blaming CCHQ does nothing to solve the problem, of course, but it's a useful outlet for internal party spats that will break out over the next few days.

    Last question is whether this results spells disaster for the Conservatives in other seats. I'm sceptical that we can extrapolate too much, as the election took place in fairly unique circumstances (disgraced former MP resigning after lobbying scandal, Prime Minister embroiled in his own scandal, the ongoing pandemic) which are unlikely to be applicable to other key target seats at the next election. Long term, I think the Conservatives have core strengths (their elderly and reliable base, helpful seat boundaries, a well-dispersed coalition) that won't be changed by this result. So I think it's premature to write up their political epitaph at this point.

    Sunak and Truss don't need to launch leadership challenges under the current Tory rules. They need 15% of MPs to write to the 1922 to trigger a vote of no confidence.

    If a majority VONC Johnson, he cannot even compete in a leadership election, allowing Sunak and Truss (and anyone else) to say "oh, what a shame - but since Boris is no longer available..."

    If a sizeable minority VONC him, that's trickier. In theory, he is safe for a year. In practice, it is a potentially very difficult stand off that could go different ways.

    But neither of them need to throw down the gauntlet - we need to watch individual MPs getting out the writing paper.
    Theoretically, yes - but in reality, one of the biggest mental barriers for an MP sending in a letter is fear of the unknown. If you're an MP who is thinking of sending your letter because you're worried Johnson will lead the party to defeat at the next election, you don't want to risk his replacement being someone who is even less popular with the electorate but appeals to Tory members. So, if you're an ambitious cabinet minister who wants to get rid of Boris, you don't just send in your letter and hope for the best - you have to give those MPs confidence that you could do the job, that you're an electoral asset, and that their careers will be safe if you're in charge. Which means you have to campaign, even if it's informally, to get those MPs on your side before you ask them to send their letters in at the most opportune time for you.
    I don't think you do. Friends can do some things for you, but MPs appreciate what the options will be if they VONC. Also, timings of letters don't matter. You just write in and they sit on file until the chairman of the 1922 has (I think) 54 letters.
    Hmm, I think you have a higher opinion of Tory MPs than I do! After it took them 2 years to remove May, I just cannot see them having the courage to coup a PM with a large majority without being confident they will win and his replacement will be on their side. And yes, they do accumulate until they reach 15% of the Parliamentary party, but if you seriously intend to replace the PM you'd prefer that figure to be met at the best time for you.
    Much more complex with May as, although there was plenty of discontent, it was so much about Brexit between the 2017 election and early 2019 that it wasn't at all clear that there were better alternatives. So the European Research Group were unhappy AND pro-European Tories were unhappy. But it just wasn't clear at all to either of those whether getting rid of May was in their interests.

    It's actually simpler times now. Johnson was elected as Tory leader because he was a WINNER. If you now think, as a Tory MP, he is a LOSER, then you might have a preference between alternatives, but ultimately you are just diving for the reset button. You either think he can win in 2023/24 or you've lost faith. If the latter, you just ditch him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    edited December 2021
    Jeez we want the result.

    Remember when Batley was held, everyone assumed Galloway would have to have a poor night. But he didn't he actually got ~ 22%.

    Wonder if Labour has > 10% here.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    February 3, 1959 - The Day the Music Died, for Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and the Big Bopper

    December 16, 2021 - The Night the Laughter Died for Boris Johnson and the Tory Party?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    edited December 2021
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    In USA there used to be a TV commercial for a hair coloring that proclaimed, "Only your hair dresser knows for sure".

    In the cold light of dawn, only Sir Graham Brady will know for sure.

    This for sure 🤟

    Hair

    image
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Pulpstar said:

    Jeez we want the result.

    Remember when Batley was held, everyone assumed Galloway would have to have a poor night. But he didn't he actually got ~ 22%.

    Wonder if Labour has > 10% here.

    Somebody may be trying to save their deposit, hence recount(s) or at least checks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Woke up and it looks like good news incoming?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    :
    IanB2 said:

    Woke up and it looks like good news incoming?

    "Woke up" could be headline in tomorrow's Daily Telegraph?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,184
    As an aside, it is good to see politicians including the Prime Minister and President Biden interviewed while wearing their masks. I did suggest at the start of the pandemic that it be advertised that people do not need to remove their masks to use their phones.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    Pulpstar said:

    Jeez we want the result.

    Remember when Batley was held, everyone assumed Galloway would have to have a poor night. But he didn't he actually got ~ 22%.

    Wonder if Labour has > 10% here.

    Lab probably have around 10%.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    Where’s my SNP friends? I 💝 my SNP friends

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Boris' biggest strength wasn't any ideology, it was that he was a winner. That goes and he's friendless.

    And this is worse than ‘just’ a big swing against a government in midterm. If you’re looking back to the Tories’ periodic losses during the Thatcher midterms, those were a consequence of the unpopularity of hard policy decisions, taken by the government as a whole, in what they believed was the national interest.

    This one is down to the flawed personality and misjudgement of the PM personally - both the fact of its happening, post-Paterson, and the fact of its losing, post-Peppa and partygate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    That’s two by-elections now where I didn’t think the LDs could do it. In this one, with the potential confusion over who is the challenger and with such infertile uncultivated territory and Labour clearly keen to muddy the water, it’s a stunning achievement.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Boris' biggest strength wasn't any ideology, it was that he was a winner. That goes and he's friendless.

    And this is worse than ‘just’ a big swing against a government in midterm. If you’re looking back to the Tories’ periodic losses during the Thatcher midterms, those were a consequence of the unpopularity of hard policy decisions, taken by the government as a whole, in what they believed was the national interest.

    This one is down to the flawed personality and misjudgement of the PM personally - both the fact of its happening, post-Paterson, and the fact of its losing, post-Peppa and partygate.
    Great post.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    MoonRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Boris' biggest strength wasn't any ideology, it was that he was a winner. That goes and he's friendless.

    And this is worse than ‘just’ a big swing against a government in midterm. If you’re looking back to the Tories’ periodic losses during the Thatcher midterms, those were a consequence of the unpopularity of hard policy decisions, taken by the government as a whole, in what they believed was the national interest.

    This one is down to the flawed personality and misjudgement of the PM personally - both the fact of its happening, post-Paterson, and the fact of its losing, post-Peppa and partygate.
    Great post.
    I could have just said that whereas Thatcher lost by-elections from hard decisions taken in the national interest, Johnson lost this one from easy decisions taken in his personal interest…
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NS live blog - declaration expected shortly
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    NS live blog - declaration expected shortly

    Woo
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    edited December 2021
    Remember also that someone told CCHQ to overrule the local party to disregard the local candidate it wanted, and impose the ‘lawyer from Birmingham’ on this seat.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    IanB2 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Boris' biggest strength wasn't any ideology, it was that he was a winner. That goes and he's friendless.

    And this is worse than ‘just’ a big swing against a government in midterm. If you’re looking back to the Tories’ periodic losses during the Thatcher midterms, those were a consequence of the unpopularity of hard policy decisions, taken by the government as a whole, in what they believed was the national interest.

    This one is down to the flawed personality and misjudgement of the PM personally - both the fact of its happening, post-Paterson, and the fact of its losing, post-Peppa and partygate.
    Great post.
    I could have just said that whereas Thatcher lost by-elections from hard decisions taken in the national interest, Johnson lost this one from easy decisions taken in his personal interest…
    Yes. Except. Instead of personal interest at end it’s more like “we eat as much cake as we can get away with” isn’t it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jeez we want the result.

    Remember when Batley was held, everyone assumed Galloway would have to have a poor night. But he didn't he actually got ~ 22%.

    Wonder if Labour has > 10% here.

    Lab probably have around 10%.
    The bigger the better, now, since a good chunk of them will have believed the Labour leaflets about its prospects and will be willing to back their LibDem MP next time….
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Wow, LDs now saying their win is “comfortable” and “decisive”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    Why does it take so long at the end?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    BBC estimating a swing of 30%.

    Meanwhile I think whoever runs Shropshire CC Twitter feed has been on Sean’s happy juice…
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it take so long at the end?

    An unfortunate confluence of lots of penis drawings and lots of agents
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it take so long at the end?

    An unfortunate confluence of lots of penis drawings and lots of agents
    If you think some PB’ers are pedantic, let me introduce you to the election agents of fringe party by-election candidates…
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    Bring it on
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    can’t contain myself
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,113
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Boris' biggest strength wasn't any ideology, it was that he was a winner. That goes and he's friendless.

    And this is worse than ‘just’ a big swing against a government in midterm. If you’re looking back to the Tories’ periodic losses during the Thatcher midterms, those were a consequence of the unpopularity of hard policy decisions, taken by the government as a whole, in what they believed was the national interest.

    This one is down to the flawed personality and misjudgement of the PM personally - both the fact of its happening, post-Paterson, and the fact of its losing, post-Peppa and partygate.
    Even if the LDs have indeed won and Boris does likely face a VONC I don't think he would necessarily lose it yet. However he needs a strong booster campaign to get back on track and no more lockdowns

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    The big question for me is whether this presages a 1992-style "anyone but Thatcher" voter mind-shift, fixed by slipping Johnson into the Space Cannon; or a 1997-style "not the Tories" leading to their ejection despite the massive upheaval that would be.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    Go! 🥳 for big moment
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    We bloody won it! Woooooooooo
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    BBC - Candidates hearing result from returning officer
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    LD 17,957
    Con 12,032
    Lab 3,686
    Green 1,738
    ReformUK 1,427
    UKIP 378
    Reclaim 375
    Loony 118
    Akers Smith 95
    Heritage 79
    Rejoin EU 58
    Freedom Alliance 57
    Party Party 19
    Kenward 3
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    edited December 2021
    “Maggie Thatcher, can you hear me? Maggie Thatcher ... your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!”
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Wow
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Creditable scores by Labour and the Greens, as well
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    Good hair good candidate
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Turnout lower than I was expecting, too
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,621
    IanB2 said:

    “Maggie Thatcher, can you hear me? Maggie Thatcher ... your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!”

    Lol yes that! Yes yes

    We Libdems best ever. Tony Heath and Major, the Johnny rotten major. And Margaret Thatcher, we have beaten them all. Now we whack Boris out cold in 110% leaver seat! By oh they say - can’t happen. Did they? They said Hey Jade it just not flaming likely!!! So Bust Boris where is he now then, down bakehouse in their Sausage rolls. extent and ex everything.
    I eat sausage rolls I ain’t eating him. Nowt but ketty. !
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform
    Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system

    What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.

    … it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/forget-north-shropshire-the-tories-should-really-worry-about-labour-backing-electoral-reform-1356611
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Those figures are stunning
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    "The party is over"

    ... is going to be heard again and again. It's a good meme.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Andy_JS said:

    LD 17,957
    Con 12,032
    Lab 3,686
    Green 1,738
    ReformUK 1,427
    UKIP 378
    Reclaim 375
    Loony 118
    Akers Smith 95
    Heritage 79
    Rejoin EU 58
    Freedom Alliance 57
    Party Party 19
    Kenward 3

    No possible argument that they lost it because their right wing split. And a lot of Labour votes still to squeeze.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    StuartDickson said:

    Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform
    Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system

    What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.

    … it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/forget-north-shropshire-the-tories-should-really-worry-about-labour-backing-electoral-reform-1356611

    It was nobbled by the unions at the last Labour conference
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    She’s going to need some public speaking classes
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IanB2 said:

    Turnout lower than I was expecting, too

    That’s cos they’re voting Tory at the next GE.

    Abstaining is a painless way of expressing your strong dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    REFUK are finished.
This discussion has been closed.

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