A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?

Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.

Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.

Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_xP said:

Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

I think he's on a sticky wicket here as it's undeniable that cases of undiagnosed cancer had gone up through the pandemic and that will eventually be seen in the death figures of many of those patients.

On the other hand you can argue that if the NHS is overwhelmed by Covid people currently being treated will suffer as they will have their treatment curtailed... but I think he is wrong to so blithely dismiss those people whose loved ones have died from late and undiagnosed cancers during the pandemic.

I think you've misunderstood him. He's not saying that there hasn't been a serious knock-on effect from the pandemic on cancer and other care, he's saying that that wasn't caused by lockdowns, it was caused by the effect of the pandemic on the NHS (staff shortages, reduced capacity etc). The lockdowns weren't the cause of the problem - quite the opposite, they have helped reduce that effect by limiting the number of Covid cases at the peaks.

Again, Whitty was stating the bleedin' obvious. But it seems someone has to.

Completely agree, it is bizarre how people can't see this causal chain.
Lockdowns -> less COVID -> less pressure on NHS -> more capacity to treat other diseases.

There is no such thing as less Covid. We're all going to get Covid. Chris Whitty said that.

Social distancing -> Less capacity -> more pressure on NHS -> less capacity to treat other diseases.

Abolish social distancing in the NHS, abolish isolation for those who are infected, and get on with the job of treating other diseases. Stop trying to prevent people from being infected with a virus they've already had three vaccines for and that 99% would survive with zero vaccines.

Lockdowns reduce COVID pressure in 2 ways:
1) not everyone gets COVID at once
2) shifts cases until after we have more vaccination protection and better therapeutics

Andy_JS said:

Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

Mine is:

Con: 40%
LibDem: 37%
Lab: 13%
Reform: 4%
Bits'n'bobs: 6%

Maybe Lab higher.

MattW said:

Andy_JS said:

Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

LD - Tory tie, for distinctiveness.

Tory win by 10,000

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?

Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.

Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.

Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.

Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.

MoonRabbit said:

On topic. My first political bet, and for weeks I’ve been convinced, especially late last week the libdems would definitely have won. The election has probably come a week too late for the shock result,. Sure it would have happened last week, but the media narrative has changed completely this week. Even the mirror put out a rally round the flag front page last night, on eve of vote on wether Prime Minister should continue.

This weeks rally round the flag give Omicron both barrels narrative reminds voters what they liked about Boris in the first place, this is now front of their minds as they vote.

Rally round flag and change in media narrative week on week does impact votes cast, we have need to take these phenomena seriously in our discussions here.

In trying to predict the weeks narrative last Sunday, I had inflation higher than expected and BoE finally taking action with 0.17% rise - Dura Ace told me I so embarrassing myself to delete the post. But I wasn’t far out was I? 0.08% wrong. 😀

I also predicted Russia to invade UK. Truth is, why would they need to? Putin and his crew of Oligarch’s already have bought the governing party and have them in their pocket, and with their best buddy’s the Chinese own UK media, property, infrastructure, schools and universities, even breweries etc etc etc etc.

I also predicted Newcastle to upset Liverpool and Eagles to teach us a few original expletives. And predicted Boris to win his by election.

I ❤️ Dura Ace so I won’t say anymore 🙂

Pulpstar said:

Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

Difficult to get accurate data on that.

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?

Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.

Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.

Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.

Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.

And I was wrong to accept that. Mea culpa, I made a mistake.

I believed it when it was claimed that this would be for weeks or months, not years. Had I known it would be for years I would have said no and we should have adopted the Swedish model.

I apologise for my mistake then. @contrarian was right and I was wrong.

If I knew then what I know now I would never have supported it. If I had a TARDIS and were to be PM in March 2020 then I would have say no lockdown, no disruption to education, no measures to "protect the NHS". None of it. It was a mistake and it wasn't worth it.

Had this ended when we'd done vaccines then fair enough, but it didn't. It was a horrible mistake we'll be paying with for generations to come. We should have let the virus run its course naturally and let anyone who is afraid of it hide away.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

Difficult to get accurate data on that.

Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.

Pulpstar said:

Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

I think up to now its not been important, as it was a very low number. Its likely to be bigger now, although probably not as big as some people are assuming.

turbotubbs said:

Pulpstar said:

Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

I think up to now its not been important, as it was a very low number. Its likely to be bigger now, although probably not as big as some people are assuming.

If it's small we will be able to see that. Novel infections can still be (And should be) kept a record of.

The arguments against on twitter seem to be playing the man and not the ball ones against Peston himself.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

Don't worry, once every one in the country has it on the 24th we can then end quaranteen as a pointless load of bollocks.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

SandyRentool said:

Anecdote:

One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.

Of course they should!

Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.

So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

Riiiiight.

If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

We're all getting it anyway.

You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.

I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.

When he was a paid up Johnson fanboi he was up for lockdown 1 as I recall.

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

Difficult to get accurate data on that.

Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.

Total infections will include a lot of double counting from people who are testing daily and keep getting positives, though - I assume the reason for excluding reinfections is that otherwise you'd need to assume something like "count it if they didn't record another positive test within three months before this one, otherwise don't" and that's too complicated to process?

Andy_JS said:

Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

Lib Dem - 45 - winning here
Tory - 38
Labour - 7
Re-whatever - 5
The rest - 5

Mexicanpete said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

SandyRentool said:

Anecdote:

One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.

Of course they should!

Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.

So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

Riiiiight.

If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

We're all getting it anyway.

You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.

I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.

When he was a paid up Johnson fanboi he was up for lockdown 1 as I recall.

And I've put my hand up and said I was wrong to support it.

We all make mistakes, I'm happy to own mine.

Had I known it would last for years, I wouldn't have.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

theakes said:

Indications at this stage now appear to show many Labour and Green voters switching late and if this is correct there could be a comfortable win for the Lib Dems, given the expected extensive fall in Con support at the ballot box. If these sources are incorrect then the Tories to hold, only caveat is that the sources have been accurate in the past. There is always a first time of course.

Tactical voting happening once again. I would be shocked if Labour voters don't go to the Lib Dems

An extra 40 votes for the Lib Dems then?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

Difficult to get accurate data on that.

Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.

But it might be a re-infection where the previous infection wasn't recorded.

Well that will be counted as a new infection in the data. The data isn't perfect, but excluding a second infection from the case numbers after a previous one make the case numbers frankly incorrect.

JosiasJessop said:

Andy_JS said:

Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

With zero knowledge of the ground game;

LDs 42
Cons 38
Lab. 10
Others 10

Turnout a low 30%. If turnout is high, Cons just scrape through.

Lib Dems winning here according to one poster upthread.

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.

The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
·
36m
Important. Whitty warns further restrictions may be needed dependent on data due between Xmas/NY.

===

As I have posted before, it's lockdown on 3rd Jan. Brace.

What's the point? Supposedly with its doubling rate we'll have all had it by Christmas Day.

So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it? And if we haven't all had it, then clearly its not doubling as claimed.

We are already in a de facto lockdown as people's behaviour reacts to Whitty and his colleagues

You may be. But I can still:

1) run my business
2) see friends
3) have a pint

You see the difference? Restrictions aren't necessary.

Of course you can but you may soon be on your own

"So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it?"

They'll still lockdown even though we are past the peak of cases.

There is no need for a formal lockdown, public behaviour will effectively create it anyway

Which is what @rcs1000 has long argued.

The businesses affected, mostly in hospitality and entertainment, really don’t like that situation though. Many of them would rather be ordered closed by government, as government would then be obliged to support them financially.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I am actually under the weather, just thought it was a cold.

Coughing and feeling unwell in general, not the worst thing I've had

Sounds like Omicron. Have you ordered a PCR test? Unless you've got a car the testing centres around London are a mission to get to.

Presume we've already covered the fact that the 1 death that 'put paid to the idea this was a milder variant' was a 70something anti-vaxxer.

Not many tears being shed for him in my house.

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.

Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.

In 30 or 40 years’ time, I’ll be able to tell my young grandkids that I was there, on that fateful evening in Abu Dhabi…

"And mightily bored they will be!"

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.

The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.

I think its becoming pretty clear double jabbed isn't now offering much protection from infection.

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I am actually under the weather, just thought it was a cold.

Coughing and feeling unwell in general, not the worst thing I've had

Sounds like Omicron. Have you ordered a PCR test? Unless you've got a car the testing centres around London are a mission to get to.

Love this - thought it was just a cold, not the worst you've had? Sounds like Omicron!

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

SandyRentool said:

Anecdote:

One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.

Of course they should!

Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.

So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

Riiiiight.

If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

We're all getting it anyway.

You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.

I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.

When he was a paid up Johnson fanboi he was up for lockdown 1 as I recall.

And I've put my hand up and said I was wrong to support it.

We all make mistakes, I'm happy to own mine.

Had I known it would last for years, I wouldn't have.

I look forward to your conceding that Johnson isn't in fact, as you have asserted, the best post war PM, but the worst.

You are indeed entitled to change your mind.

Beibheirli_C said:

maaarsh said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

Don't worry, once every one in the country has it on the 24th we can then end quaranteen as a pointless load of bollocks.

One of my daughters had to train somebody who had a negative LFT. After a few days the trainee had another test and showed positive. At this point she admitted that initially she had had TWO tests, one positive, one negative and decided that the negative one was right.

So now my daughter's Xmas may well be stuffed thanks to this thoughtless moron...

FFS - people are fecking stupid. My sympathies for her.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.

The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.

I think its becoming pretty clear double jabbed isn't now offering much protection from infection.

But lots of people are experiencing pretty mild symptoms. So thats a good thing.

A relative of the UK's 'first Omicron victim' told LBC that his healthy stepfather died after being taken in by anti-vaxxer "conspiracy theories" and refusing a Covid jab.

@NickFerrariLBC https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1471437581489475586?s=20

Beibheirli_C said:

maaarsh said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

Don't worry, once every one in the country has it on the 24th we can then end quaranteen as a pointless load of bollocks.

One of my daughters had to train somebody who had a negative LFT. After a few days the trainee had another test and showed positive. At this point she admitted that initially she had had TWO tests, one positive, one negative and decided that the negative one was right.

So now my daughter's Xmas may well be stuffed thanks to this thoughtless moron...

The Gov't need to REALLY REALLY emphasise that if you get a positive LFT - even if you have other negative ones that you really really will be positive.
The "accuracy" of LFTs is all about false negatives.

maaarsh said:

Presume we've already covered the fact that the 1 death that 'put paid to the idea this was a milder variant' was a 70something anti-vaxxer.

Not many tears being shed for him in my house.

Where did you see that?

Gardenwalker said:

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?

Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.

Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.

Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.

Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.

At some stage, PT migrated from liberal skeptic of govt restrictions to full on moonbat.

No I'm not a moonbat.

Moonbats are the antivaxxers or Covid denialists.

I fully accept Covid is real. I fully Covid is dangerous. I fully accept Covid vaccines are wise. I fully accept people are going to die from Covid.

I simply don't accept that the price of restrictions are worth the benefits of it. That's not moonbat, that's a price/benefit analysis.

Taz said:

Andy_JS said:

Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

Lib Dem - 45 - winning here
Tory - 38
Labour - 7
Re-whatever - 5
The rest - 5

My guess: Con 41 LD 40 Lab 8 Re-x 5 Others 5.

Interesting Israel not seeing any real uptick in cases. Now is that their booster programe or restrictions or got lucky not much omicron (yet)?

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

SandyRentool said:

Anecdote:

One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.

Of course they should!

Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.

So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

Riiiiight.

If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

We're all getting it anyway.

You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.

I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.

I still support pre-vaccine lockdowns. For me, the cost/benefit is still in their favour. Doesn't mean I'm right, but on my situation and values it's right for me.

Post-vaccine, I generally do not. I can see (not necessarily accept, but certainly see) an argument for a short lockdown to get to X% boosters (of a very small number of weeks - up to two, say) but I'd want to be convinced that pretty dire things were going to happen otherwise (of course by the time the evidence is in it could be too late).

What you say emotion and personal circumstances is apt. I and my immediate family unit are all low risk. My concern has been for parents and parents in law who, in various ways, were quie high risk. Once they were vaccinated, I relaxed. Now they're triple vaccinated I'm still pretty relaxed.

maaarsh said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I am actually under the weather, just thought it was a cold.

Coughing and feeling unwell in general, not the worst thing I've had

Sounds like Omicron. Have you ordered a PCR test? Unless you've got a car the testing centres around London are a mission to get to.

Love this - thought it was just a cold, not the worst you've had? Sounds like Omicron!

It is amazing the powers of diagnosis some people possess. Without even a face to face meeting or a triage.

Mr. JohnL, I agree with the general principle a sportsman should only be knighted after he's retired but given both Andy Murray and Chris Hoy got knighted while still active I fear that the precedent has been set.

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
·
36m
Important. Whitty warns further restrictions may be needed dependent on data due between Xmas/NY.

===

As I have posted before, it's lockdown on 3rd Jan. Brace.

What's the point? Supposedly with its doubling rate we'll have all had it by Christmas Day.

So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it? And if we haven't all had it, then clearly its not doubling as claimed.

We are already in a de facto lockdown as people's behaviour reacts to Whitty and his colleagues

You may be. But I can still:

1) run my business
2) see friends
3) have a pint

You see the difference? Restrictions aren't necessary.

Of course you can but you may soon be on your own

"So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it?"

They'll still lockdown even though we are past the peak of cases.

There is no need for a formal lockdown, public behaviour will effectively create it anyway

Which is what @rcs1000 has long argued.

The businesses affected, mostly in hospitality and entertainment, really don’t like that situation though. Many of them would rather be ordered closed by government, as government would then be obliged to support them financially.

That's the issue - when ordered to close hospitality / entertainment receive Government money to cover their costs.

No Government order and it's just survival of those who have enough money to keep on going.

Philip_Thompson said:

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If I get it and die, I get it and die.

We're all going to get it you bleeding idiot. Chris Whitty said that six months ago, so I'm not saying anything Chris Whitty hasn't already said. But I forget you're the moron who expect an "exit" from Covid.

But yes, liberty is worth more than death.

"Idiot", "moron" and no doubt more in other posts from you that I can't be bothered to read - can't you discuss the issue as though you weren't drunk? You come across like George Galloway on speed.

No.

You snipped out the post I was responding to which was "Which as usual is you advocating that Other People die so that you can have "liberty"."

If Rochdale wants to keep falsely claiming I am advocating that Other People die, then I'm content to call him a moron in reply. I'll be civilised with anyone that is civilised themselves.

I note you don't call him out, only me for responding to him. Funny that!

Didn't see that and I agree he goes OTT too (he's an LD, innit ). But attributing barmy views to people is marginally less bad than calling them names.

HYUFD said:

Bank of England increases interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% in face of rising inflation

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1471451021327179776?s=20

But why? First of all, .25% is hardly likely to turn spenders into savers. Secondly, this is not classic inflation but is largely driven by Covid disrupting supply chains and fuel prices going through the roof. Thirdly, there is risk of skewering economic recovery.

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?

Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.

Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.

Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.

Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.

And I was wrong to accept that. Mea culpa, I made a mistake.

I believed it when it was claimed that this would be for weeks or months, not years. Had I known it would be for years I would have said no and we should have adopted the Swedish model.

I apologise for my mistake then. @contrarian was right and I was wrong.

If I knew then what I know now I would never have supported it. If I had a TARDIS and were to be PM in March 2020 then I would have say no lockdown, no disruption to education, no measures to "protect the NHS". None of it. It was a mistake and it wasn't worth it.

Had this ended when we'd done vaccines then fair enough, but it didn't. It was a horrible mistake we'll be paying with for generations to come. We should have let the virus run its course naturally and let anyone who is afraid of it hide away.

Fair enough - you've changed your view. But you're speaking from frustration rather than logic I think.

The lockdowns saved tens of thousands of lives, and massively reduced the pressures on the NHS compared to otherwise.

My position on all this is as follows. Do I want to agree to the end of liberty and a biosurveillance state to control a virus with a less than 1% fatality rate? No I don't. But the public overwhelmingly do, so I reluctantly go along with it.

Three anecdotes from the outside world:
1) Took the car for an MOT on Tuesday. As requested by the sign on the door, put my mask on as I went into the garage office when I went to pick it up. 'No need for that' the proprietor cheerfully assured me. 'You're the only one all day who's bothered'. He was cheerfully belligerent in his opposition to any more covid measures 'or this place won't be running any longer'. He'd had his booster jab because his dad had told him he had to or he wouldn't be coming for Christmas dinner.

2) Conversation with a friend of mine at school drop-off yesterday. He embodies the red wall. Historically labour from a working class family, he's been less and less enamoured of them over the last ten years and was repelled by Corbyn. Thinks Starmer is a berk. But his view on the current shenanigans was as follows (read this in a broad, incredulous, Mancunian accent): "do you not think they've gone absolutely way over the top to this latest one? Is he [Boris] just trying to get sacked? He's just doing f*ck-up after f*ck-up."

3) My youngest's infant school did her nativity play yesterday. I cannot conceive of anyone who could care more about the edcuation, welfare, wellbeing and happiness of the children in his care than the headmaster of this school. It is really, really important to him that normality continues for the children in that school. Anyway, I was really pleased it went ahead: it is my tenth, and last, nativity play as a parent - they don't do it in the junior's. And it was brilliant. And my youngest - who is a complicated little character: neither the competent, reliable demeanour of my oldest or the confident, outgoing character of my middle daughter - had one line, and was barely audible, and fidgeted throughout, but despite her nerves she did it, and she sang the songs and followed the cues, and I was prouder of her than I ever was of either of the older two's objectively much better performances.
So anyway, well done to the school for going ahead regardless. Parents had to be masked (much to the apologies of the head, who reported it as a condition from DfE and TRafford public health for these to go ahead) but a small price to pay for such a momentous event.
But I reported my joy at this to colleagues later in the day, and there was quite a lot of surprise and some disapproval that the event had been allowed to take place. It's a public sector organisation, with quite a lot of keenness for lockdown, and I didn't getthe impression that hostility was aimed at me personally - but there was more than a bit of the hint that the school were being selfish and/or self-indulgent in going ahead with a nativity play. Which I think is a shame.