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A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • Mortimer said:

    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    36m
    Important. Whitty warns further restrictions may be needed dependent on data due between Xmas/NY.

    ===

    As I have posted before, it's lockdown on 3rd Jan. Brace.

    What's the point? Supposedly with its doubling rate we'll have all had it by Christmas Day.

    So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it? And if we haven't all had it, then clearly its not doubling as claimed.
    We are already in a de facto lockdown as people's behaviour reacts to Whitty and his colleagues
    You may be. But I can still:

    1) run my business
    2) see friends
    3) have a pint

    You see the difference? Restrictions aren't necessary.
    Of course you can but you may soon be on your own
    "So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it?"

    They'll still lockdown even though we are past the peak of cases.
    There is no need for a formal lockdown, public behaviour will effectively create it anyway
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    edited December 2021

    rkrkrk said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    I think he's on a sticky wicket here as it's undeniable that cases of undiagnosed cancer had gone up through the pandemic and that will eventually be seen in the death figures of many of those patients.

    On the other hand you can argue that if the NHS is overwhelmed by Covid people currently being treated will suffer as they will have their treatment curtailed... but I think he is wrong to so blithely dismiss those people whose loved ones have died from late and undiagnosed cancers during the pandemic.
    I think you've misunderstood him. He's not saying that there hasn't been a serious knock-on effect from the pandemic on cancer and other care, he's saying that that wasn't caused by lockdowns, it was caused by the effect of the pandemic on the NHS (staff shortages, reduced capacity etc). The lockdowns weren't the cause of the problem - quite the opposite, they have helped reduce that effect by limiting the number of Covid cases at the peaks.

    Again, Whitty was stating the bleedin' obvious. But it seems someone has to.
    Completely agree, it is bizarre how people can't see this causal chain.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID -> less pressure on NHS -> more capacity to treat other diseases.
    There is no such thing as less Covid. We're all going to get Covid. Chris Whitty said that.

    Social distancing -> Less capacity -> more pressure on NHS -> less capacity to treat other diseases.

    Abolish social distancing in the NHS, abolish isolation for those who are infected, and get on with the job of treating other diseases. Stop trying to prevent people from being infected with a virus they've already had three vaccines for and that 99% would survive with zero vaccines.
    The analogy Whitty drew was having a month's rain over the course of a month, or in a single day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    Bank Rate up from 0.1% to 0.25% on an 8 to 1 vote

    Did the 1 want a bigger rise?
  • Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

    I suspect that he was looking at stats like this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalcancerdeathsintheukin2019and2020

    There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
    I do wonder whether Covid will have directly averted some cancer deaths in the sense of getting there first. The link seems to be underlying cause. If you have terminal (or uncertain prognosis) cancer but with some time to live, but die from an acute infection of Covid then Covid will go down as the underlying cause I would have thought. For cancer to be underlying cause there would have to be a more direct link (say you're immuno-compromised and die from an infection that would not normally be serious, but I'm not sure that would be applied for Covid).

    Edit: still no evidene of increased cancer deaths, of course. But some of those could take some time to show up if e.g. missed screening/opportunities to diagnose. Cancer can take some time, particularly if there is some treatment, even a bit late (e.g. surgical removal of the primary but it turns out to have spread)
    Just a moment's search found that in April 2019 200,000 people were referred to a consultant with a suspected cancer. In April 2020 that was less than 80,000. So there are 120,000 people in one month who should have been seen by a specialist to check if they had cancer but were not. The idea this is not adversely affecting outcomes is ludicrous.
    The idea that our CMO could say that during this pandemic and especially Spring/Summer 2020 that the NHS worked in a normal way for treating cancer is beyond belief.
    Indeed, which is why he said absolutely no such thing.

    This really isn't hard to understand.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

    https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

    Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

    No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
    Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.
    Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.
    In 30 or 40 years’ time, I’ll be able to tell my young grandkids that I was there, on that fateful evening in Abu Dhabi… ;)
    The day Lewis was robbed of the championship and then gracefully retired.

    Toto Wolff seems to be dropping hints that Lewis will not be returning next season.
  • .

    Bank of England raises base rate

    Incoming statement from Sunak.

    " More ice waiter please".
    It was announced in the HOC that he and his colleagues are holding a Zoom meeting with the hospitality industry this pm
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

    https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

    Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

    No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
    Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.
    Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.
    The Stolen Championship.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    The first ₑₓᵢₜ Wₐᵥₑ was so good we get to have another one.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    .

    Bank of England raises base rate

    Incoming statement from Sunak.

    " More ice waiter please".
    'I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    .
    DavidL said:

    Bank of England raises base rate

    Weird response to a dropped catch.
    As logical as anything England has done.
    Who knows, it might work.


  • If I get it and die, I get it and die.

    We're all going to get it you bleeding idiot. Chris Whitty said that six months ago, so I'm not saying anything Chris Whitty hasn't already said. But I forget you're the moron who expect an "exit" from Covid.

    But yes, liberty is worth more than death.

    "Idiot", "moron" and no doubt more in other posts from you that I can't be bothered to read - can't you discuss the issue as though you weren't drunk? You come across like George Galloway on speed.
    No.

    You snipped out the post I was responding to which was "Which as usual is you advocating that Other People die so that you can have "liberty"."

    If Rochdale wants to keep falsely claiming I am advocating that Other People die, then I'm content to call him a moron in reply. I'll be civilised with anyone that is civilised themselves.

    I note you don't call him out, only me for responding to him. Funny that!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,095
    edited December 2021



    If I get it and die, I get it and die.

    We're all going to get it you bleeding idiot. Chris Whitty said that six months ago, so I'm not saying anything Chris Whitty hasn't already said. But I forget you're the moron who expect an "exit" from Covid.

    But yes, liberty is worth more than death.

    "Idiot", "moron" and no doubt more in other posts from you that I can't be bothered to read - can't you discuss the issue as though you weren't drunk? You come across like George Galloway on speed.
    I thought that GG was a teetotalitarian for both drink and drugs. :smile:

    Apart from people who can remember having a pint with him since he says he gave up. And they are all %^&*()s.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588



    If I get it and die, I get it and die.

    We're all going to get it you bleeding idiot. Chris Whitty said that six months ago, so I'm not saying anything Chris Whitty hasn't already said. But I forget you're the moron who expect an "exit" from Covid.

    But yes, liberty is worth more than death.

    "Idiot", "moron" and no doubt more in other posts from you that I can't be bothered to read - can't you discuss the issue as though you weren't drunk? You come across like George Galloway on speed.
    Philip seems to be doing some agency work on behalf of shock-jock @Leon during his holiday absence.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,095
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    LD - Tory tie, for distinctiveness.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    I think he's on a sticky wicket here as it's undeniable that cases of undiagnosed cancer had gone up through the pandemic and that will eventually be seen in the death figures of many of those patients.

    On the other hand you can argue that if the NHS is overwhelmed by Covid people currently being treated will suffer as they will have their treatment curtailed... but I think he is wrong to so blithely dismiss those people whose loved ones have died from late and undiagnosed cancers during the pandemic.
    I think you've misunderstood him. He's not saying that there hasn't been a serious knock-on effect from the pandemic on cancer and other care, he's saying that that wasn't caused by lockdowns, it was caused by the effect of the pandemic on the NHS (staff shortages, reduced capacity etc). The lockdowns weren't the cause of the problem - quite the opposite, they have helped reduce that effect by limiting the number of Covid cases at the peaks.

    Again, Whitty was stating the bleedin' obvious. But it seems someone has to.
    Completely agree, it is bizarre how people can't see this causal chain.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID -> less pressure on NHS -> more capacity to treat other diseases.
    There is no such thing as less Covid. We're all going to get Covid. Chris Whitty said that.

    Social distancing -> Less capacity -> more pressure on NHS -> less capacity to treat other diseases.

    Abolish social distancing in the NHS, abolish isolation for those who are infected, and get on with the job of treating other diseases. Stop trying to prevent people from being infected with a virus they've already had three vaccines for and that 99% would survive with zero vaccines.
    Lockdowns reduce COVID pressure in 2 ways:
    1) not everyone gets COVID at once
    2) shifts cases until after we have more vaccination protection and better therapeutics

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited December 2021

    Mortimer said:

    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    36m
    Important. Whitty warns further restrictions may be needed dependent on data due between Xmas/NY.

    ===

    As I have posted before, it's lockdown on 3rd Jan. Brace.

    What's the point? Supposedly with its doubling rate we'll have all had it by Christmas Day.

    So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it? And if we haven't all had it, then clearly its not doubling as claimed.
    We are already in a de facto lockdown as people's behaviour reacts to Whitty and his colleagues
    You may be. But I can still:

    1) run my business
    2) see friends
    3) have a pint

    You see the difference? Restrictions aren't necessary.
    Of course you can but you may soon be on your own
    Hyperbole much?

    There will be millions of people happily going about their days. Just as there will be millions complaining that the government should try and control something which is entirely out of its control.

    The vast majority will fall somewhere in between. But I don't want to be stopped from going about my life because some people can't accept the realities.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    .

    Bank of England raises base rate

    Incoming statement from Sunak.

    " More ice waiter please".
    It was announced in the HOC that he and his colleagues are holding a Zoom meeting with the hospitality industry this pm
    Thank fuck. Will they patch Geoffrey in from the BVI?

    I think this is gearing up to be his Dole falls off the stage moment. The three big stories are Covid (medical aspects) Covid (financial) and inflation, the PM is being as useful as a ruptured colostomy bag, his successors are manoeuvring like it was The Death of Stalin and little Rishi is Surfin' USA.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    I think he's on a sticky wicket here as it's undeniable that cases of undiagnosed cancer had gone up through the pandemic and that will eventually be seen in the death figures of many of those patients.

    On the other hand you can argue that if the NHS is overwhelmed by Covid people currently being treated will suffer as they will have their treatment curtailed... but I think he is wrong to so blithely dismiss those people whose loved ones have died from late and undiagnosed cancers during the pandemic.
    I think you've misunderstood him. He's not saying that there hasn't been a serious knock-on effect from the pandemic on cancer and other care, he's saying that that wasn't caused by lockdowns, it was caused by the effect of the pandemic on the NHS (staff shortages, reduced capacity etc). The lockdowns weren't the cause of the problem - quite the opposite, they have helped reduce that effect by limiting the number of Covid cases at the peaks.

    Again, Whitty was stating the bleedin' obvious. But it seems someone has to.
    Completely agree, it is bizarre how people can't see this causal chain.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID -> less pressure on NHS -> more capacity to treat other diseases.
    There is no such thing as less Covid. We're all going to get Covid. Chris Whitty said that.

    Social distancing -> Less capacity -> more pressure on NHS -> less capacity to treat other diseases.

    Abolish social distancing in the NHS, abolish isolation for those who are infected, and get on with the job of treating other diseases. Stop trying to prevent people from being infected with a virus they've already had three vaccines for and that 99% would survive with zero vaccines.
    Lockdowns reduce COVID pressure in 2 ways:
    1) not everyone gets COVID at once
    2) shifts cases until after we have more vaccination protection and better therapeutics

    Except we've had two years of reduced capacity due to distancing.

    Had we had no lockdown we would have ripped off the bandage, buried the dead and had full capacity now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    Mine is:

    Con: 40%
    LibDem: 37%
    Lab: 13%
    Reform: 4%
    Bits'n'bobs: 6%

    Maybe Lab higher.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Bank of England raises base rate

    Incoming statement from Sunak.

    " More ice waiter please".
    'I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.'
    'Mounting chaos? What mounting chaos?'
  • MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    LD - Tory tie, for distinctiveness.
    Tory win by 10,000
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    Cons 43
    LDs 42
    Lab. 10
    Others 5

    Turnout 45%
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    On topic. My first political bet, and for weeks I’ve been convinced, especially late last week the libdems would definitely have won. The election has probably come a week too late for the shock result,. Sure it would have happened last week, but the media narrative has changed completely this week. Even the mirror put out a rally round the flag front page last night, on eve of vote on wether Prime Minister should continue.

    This weeks rally round the flag give Omicron both barrels narrative reminds voters what they liked about Boris in the first place, this is now front of their minds as they vote.

    Rally round flag and change in media narrative week on week does impact votes cast, we have need to take these phenomena seriously in our discussions here.

    In trying to predict the weeks narrative last Sunday, I had inflation higher than expected and BoE finally taking action with 0.17% rise - Dura Ace told me I so embarrassing myself to delete the post. But I wasn’t far out was I? 0.08% wrong. 😀

    I also predicted Russia to invade UK. Truth is, why would they need to? Putin and his crew of Oligarch’s already have bought the governing party and have them in their pocket, and with their best buddy’s the Chinese own UK media, property, infrastructure, schools and universities, even breweries etc etc etc etc.

    I also predicted Newcastle to upset Liverpool and Eagles to teach us a few original expletives. And predicted Boris to win his by election.

    I ❤️ Dura Ace so I won’t say anymore 🙂
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    36m
    Important. Whitty warns further restrictions may be needed dependent on data due between Xmas/NY.

    ===

    As I have posted before, it's lockdown on 3rd Jan. Brace.

    What's the point? Supposedly with its doubling rate we'll have all had it by Christmas Day.

    So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it? And if we haven't all had it, then clearly its not doubling as claimed.
    We are already in a de facto lockdown as people's behaviour reacts to Whitty and his colleagues
    You may be. But I can still:

    1) run my business
    2) see friends
    3) have a pint

    You see the difference? Restrictions aren't necessary.
    Of course you can but you may soon be on your own
    Hyperbole much?

    There will be millions of people happily going about their days. Just as there will be millions complaining that the government should try and control something which is entirely out of its control.

    The vast majority will fall somewhere in between. But I don't want to be stopped from going about my life because some people can't accept the realities.
    The present restrictions in England are sensible and I do not see a mandated lockdown

    The point I was making is that public behaviour is very much on the cautious side and avoiding social gatherings is inevitable
  • Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    Difficult to get accurate data on that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Bank of England raises base rate

    Incoming statement from Sunak.

    " More ice waiter please".
    It was announced in the HOC that he and his colleagues are holding a Zoom meeting with the hospitality industry this pm
    Thank fuck. Will they patch Geoffrey in from the BVI?

    I think this is gearing up to be his Dole falls off the stage moment. The three big stories are Covid (medical aspects) Covid (financial) and inflation, the PM is being as useful as a ruptured colostomy bag, his successors are manoeuvring like it was The Death of Stalin and little Rishi is Surfin' USA.
    Johnson as a faulty colostomy bag is now my favourite ever analogy.

    Thankyou.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
    And I was wrong to accept that. Mea culpa, I made a mistake.

    I believed it when it was claimed that this would be for weeks or months, not years. Had I known it would be for years I would have said no and we should have adopted the Swedish model.

    I apologise for my mistake then. @contrarian was right and I was wrong.

    If I knew then what I know now I would never have supported it. If I had a TARDIS and were to be PM in March 2020 then I would have say no lockdown, no disruption to education, no measures to "protect the NHS". None of it. It was a mistake and it wasn't worth it.

    Had this ended when we'd done vaccines then fair enough, but it didn't. It was a horrible mistake we'll be paying with for generations to come. We should have let the virus run its course naturally and let anyone who is afraid of it hide away.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,537
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    With zero knowledge of the ground game;

    LDs 42
    Cons 38
    Lab. 10
    Others 10

    Turnout a low 30%. If turnout is high, Cons just scrape through.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    Difficult to get accurate data on that.
    Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
    Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415



    If I get it and die, I get it and die.

    We're all going to get it you bleeding idiot. Chris Whitty said that six months ago, so I'm not saying anything Chris Whitty hasn't already said. But I forget you're the moron who expect an "exit" from Covid.

    But yes, liberty is worth more than death.

    "Idiot", "moron" and no doubt more in other posts from you that I can't be bothered to read - can't you discuss the issue as though you weren't drunk? You come across like George Galloway on speed.
    Philip seems to be doing some agency work on behalf of shock-jock @Leon during his holiday absence.
    I excitedly revealed previous quotes and disappointed to find not me Nick is referring too 😕
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    I think up to now its not been important, as it was a very low number. Its likely to be bigger now, although probably not as big as some people are assuming.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    Con 42
    LD 35
    Lab 15
    Rewhatevers 5
    Green 2
    Miscellaneous nutcases 1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited December 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    I think up to now its not been important, as it was a very low number. Its likely to be bigger now, although probably not as big as some people are assuming.
    If it's small we will be able to see that. Novel infections can still be (And should be) kept a record of.

    The arguments against on twitter seem to be playing the man and not the ball ones against Peston himself.
  • I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    kinabalu said:

    Anecdote:

    One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

    Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

    And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.
    Of course they should!

    Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.
    So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

    Riiiiight.
    If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

    We're all getting it anyway.
    You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.
    I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
    To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

    Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
    But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
    But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    LD 38 Con 30 Lab 15
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    I think up to now its not been important, as it was a very low number. Its likely to be bigger now, although probably not as big as some people are assuming.
    From the early data it looks like a 10% symptomatic reinfection rate within 6 months of the last one for Omicron.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited December 2021

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Covidhorsebattery

    Get well, or well if you're asymptomatic -ve soon.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Don't worry, once every one in the country has it on the 24th we can then end quaranteen as a pointless load of bollocks.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Indications at this stage now appear to show many Labour and Green voters switching late and if this is correct there could be a comfortable win for the Lib Dems, given the expected extensive fall in Con support at the ballot box. If these sources are incorrect then the Tories to hold, only caveat is that the sources have been accurate in the past. There is always a first time of course.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704



    If I get it and die, I get it and die.

    We're all going to get it you bleeding idiot. Chris Whitty said that six months ago, so I'm not saying anything Chris Whitty hasn't already said. But I forget you're the moron who expect an "exit" from Covid.

    But yes, liberty is worth more than death.

    "Idiot", "moron" and no doubt more in other posts from you that I can't be bothered to read - can't you discuss the issue as though you weren't drunk? You come across like George Galloway on speed.
    Phillip has been subject to a fair bit of abuse from another poster here. So let's be fair here. Surely it is encumbent on all posters here to not act like the Gorgeous one on drugs.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    Difficult to get accurate data on that.
    Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
    Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.
    But it might be a re-infection where the previous infection wasn't recorded.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anecdote:

    One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

    Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

    And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.
    Of course they should!

    Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.
    So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

    Riiiiight.
    If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

    We're all getting it anyway.
    You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.
    I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
    To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

    Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
    But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
    But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.
    When he was a paid up Johnson fanboi he was up for lockdown 1 as I recall.
  • theakes said:

    Indications at this stage now appear to show many Labour and Green voters switching late and if this is correct there could be a comfortable win for the Lib Dems, given the expected extensive fall in Con support at the ballot box. If these sources are incorrect then the Tories to hold, only caveat is that the sources have been accurate in the past. There is always a first time of course.

    Tactical voting happening once again. I would be shocked if Labour voters don't go to the Lib Dems
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    Difficult to get accurate data on that.
    Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
    Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.
    Total infections will include a lot of double counting from people who are testing daily and keep getting positives, though - I assume the reason for excluding reinfections is that otherwise you'd need to assume something like "count it if they didn't record another positive test within three months before this one, otherwise don't" and that's too complicated to process?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Ah mate, hope it's not too bad, you should be good for the 25th, though not sure if you've got to travel anywhere beforehand. Get well soon! Fwiw, I've still yet to have any symptoms since the day after my booster dose, the most frustrating part is being locked up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    Lib Dem - 45 - winning here
    Tory - 38
    Labour - 7
    Re-whatever - 5
    The rest - 5
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Endillion said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    Difficult to get accurate data on that.
    Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
    Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.
    Total infections will include a lot of double counting from people who are testing daily and keep getting positives, though - I assume the reason for excluding reinfections is that otherwise you'd need to assume something like "count it if they didn't record another positive test within three months before this one, otherwise don't" and that's too complicated to process?
    Nah, they only count the first one.
  • Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anecdote:

    One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

    Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

    And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.
    Of course they should!

    Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.
    So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

    Riiiiight.
    If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

    We're all getting it anyway.
    You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.
    I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
    To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

    Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
    But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
    But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.
    When he was a paid up Johnson fanboi he was up for lockdown 1 as I recall.
    And I've put my hand up and said I was wrong to support it.

    We all make mistakes, I'm happy to own mine.

    Had I known it would last for years, I wouldn't have.
  • I am actually under the weather, just thought it was a cold.

    Coughing and feeling unwell in general, not the worst thing I've had
  • theakes said:

    Indications at this stage now appear to show many Labour and Green voters switching late and if this is correct there could be a comfortable win for the Lib Dems, given the expected extensive fall in Con support at the ballot box. If these sources are incorrect then the Tories to hold, only caveat is that the sources have been accurate in the past. There is always a first time of course.

    Tactical voting happening once again. I would be shocked if Labour voters don't go to the Lib Dems
    An extra 40 votes for the Lib Dems then? :wink:
  • Lib Dems - 43%, is my prediction
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    Difficult to get accurate data on that.
    Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
    Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.
    But it might be a re-infection where the previous infection wasn't recorded.
    Well that will be counted as a new infection in the data. The data isn't perfect, but excluding a second infection from the case numbers after a previous one make the case numbers frankly incorrect.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Sorry to hear that. Hope you don't get bad symptoms, and shake it off.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    With zero knowledge of the ground game;

    LDs 42
    Cons 38
    Lab. 10
    Others 10

    Turnout a low 30%. If turnout is high, Cons just scrape through.
    Lib Dems winning here according to one poster upthread.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
    And I was wrong to accept that. Mea culpa, I made a mistake.

    I believed it when it was claimed that this would be for weeks or months, not years. Had I known it would be for years I would have said no and we should have adopted the Swedish model.

    I apologise for my mistake then. @contrarian was right and I was wrong.

    If I knew then what I know now I would never have supported it. If I had a TARDIS and were to be PM in March 2020 then I would have say no lockdown, no disruption to education, no measures to "protect the NHS". None of it. It was a mistake and it wasn't worth it.

    Had this ended when we'd done vaccines then fair enough, but it didn't. It was a horrible mistake we'll be paying with for generations to come. We should have let the virus run its course naturally and let anyone who is afraid of it hide away.
    Fair enough - you've changed your view. But you're speaking from frustration rather than logic I think.

    The lockdowns saved tens of thousands of lives, and massively reduced the pressures on the NHS compared to otherwise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.
    The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    16+10 = 26 sad face

    But presumably you can rationally if not legally plan a uge Christmas shindig with fellow +s? Or would you be cross-infecting omi and delta?

    Good luck anyway
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mortimer said:

    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    36m
    Important. Whitty warns further restrictions may be needed dependent on data due between Xmas/NY.

    ===

    As I have posted before, it's lockdown on 3rd Jan. Brace.

    What's the point? Supposedly with its doubling rate we'll have all had it by Christmas Day.

    So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it? And if we haven't all had it, then clearly its not doubling as claimed.
    We are already in a de facto lockdown as people's behaviour reacts to Whitty and his colleagues
    You may be. But I can still:

    1) run my business
    2) see friends
    3) have a pint

    You see the difference? Restrictions aren't necessary.
    Of course you can but you may soon be on your own
    "So what's the point in locking down in January, once we've all had it?"

    They'll still lockdown even though we are past the peak of cases.
    There is no need for a formal lockdown, public behaviour will effectively create it anyway
    Which is what @rcs1000 has long argued.

    The businesses affected, mostly in hospitality and entertainment, really don’t like that situation though. Many of them would rather be ordered closed by government, as government would then be obliged to support them financially.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Endillion said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Peston has a good point, the daily case number should include reinfections.

    Of course the number of novel infections should still be available to view on the dashboard.

    Difficult to get accurate data on that.
    Not really. At the moment reinfections are excluded from (At least England's) daily count. That means you need to know who has been reinfected, via a backend link to someone's NHS number.
    Total infections are simply the number of positive swabs you have in a day reported; novel infections require calculation and some work.
    Total infections will include a lot of double counting from people who are testing daily and keep getting positives, though - I assume the reason for excluding reinfections is that otherwise you'd need to assume something like "count it if they didn't record another positive test within three months before this one, otherwise don't" and that's too complicated to process?
    It's surely not beyond the wit of the entire Gov't IT infrastructure to {Exclude cases within 20 days of a previous case}
    The welsh count reinfections at the moment so the datasets aren't even homomorphic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    I am actually under the weather, just thought it was a cold.

    Coughing and feeling unwell in general, not the worst thing I've had

    Sounds like Omicron. Have you ordered a PCR test? Unless you've got a car the testing centres around London are a mission to get to.
  • maaarsh said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Don't worry, once every one in the country has it on the 24th we can then end quaranteen as a pointless load of bollocks.
    One of my daughters had to train somebody who had a negative LFT. After a few days the trainee had another test and showed positive. At this point she admitted that initially she had had TWO tests, one positive, one negative and decided that the negative one was right.

    So now my daughter's Xmas may well be stuffed thanks to this thoughtless moron...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Presume we've already covered the fact that the 1 death that 'put paid to the idea this was a milder variant' was a 70something anti-vaxxer.

    Not many tears being shed for him in my house.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Sorry to hear this. Hope you're better as soon as possible.
  • Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

    https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

    Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

    No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
    Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.
    Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.
    In 30 or 40 years’ time, I’ll be able to tell my young grandkids that I was there, on that fateful evening in Abu Dhabi… ;)
    "And mightily bored they will be!" :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    theakes said:

    Indications at this stage now appear to show many Labour and Green voters switching late and if this is correct there could be a comfortable win for the Lib Dems, given the expected extensive fall in Con support at the ballot box. If these sources are incorrect then the Tories to hold, only caveat is that the sources have been accurate in the past. There is always a first time of course.

    Tactical voting happening once again. I would be shocked if Labour voters don't go to the Lib Dems
    Why would a single Labour voter there miss out on having a big beaming happy Christmas, having spanked Boris hard on his huge majority as he went to take his customary seat.

    Why should the Labour candidate vote for themselves and spurn this opportunity. Rationally speaking, Labour should get zero votes tonight.
  • Nigelb said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.
    The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.
    I think its becoming pretty clear double jabbed isn't now offering much protection from infection.
  • Mr. Battery, hope you're symptom-free.

    My dad is due his test result tomorrow.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    MaxPB said:

    I am actually under the weather, just thought it was a cold.

    Coughing and feeling unwell in general, not the worst thing I've had

    Sounds like Omicron. Have you ordered a PCR test? Unless you've got a car the testing centres around London are a mission to get to.
    Love this - thought it was just a cold, not the worst you've had? Sounds like Omicron!
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
    And I was wrong to accept that. Mea culpa, I made a mistake.

    I believed it when it was claimed that this would be for weeks or months, not years. Had I known it would be for years I would have said no and we should have adopted the Swedish model.

    I apologise for my mistake then. @contrarian was right and I was wrong.

    If I knew then what I know now I would never have supported it. If I had a TARDIS and were to be PM in March 2020 then I would have say no lockdown, no disruption to education, no measures to "protect the NHS". None of it. It was a mistake and it wasn't worth it.

    Had this ended when we'd done vaccines then fair enough, but it didn't. It was a horrible mistake we'll be paying with for generations to come. We should have let the virus run its course naturally and let anyone who is afraid of it hide away.
    Fair enough - you've changed your view. But you're speaking from frustration rather than logic I think.

    The lockdowns saved tens of thousands of lives, and massively reduced the pressures on the NHS compared to otherwise.
    They may have reduced the pressures on the NHS at the time for a few weeks, which is when it would have been a good idea, but two years of COVID distancing and messing around has increased the pressure overall.

    Plus the COVID wave was dragged out then as a result to the point its still ongoing now, meaning the pressure was never lifted.

    Had the COVID wave happened in sharped peaks the NHS would have struggled and more would have died of Covid, but then afterwards the NHS would have gotten back to normal and we wouldn't have been keeping the NHS from doing its day job the rest of the time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    edited December 2021

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anecdote:

    One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

    Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

    And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.
    Of course they should!

    Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.
    So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

    Riiiiight.
    If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

    We're all getting it anyway.
    You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.
    I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
    To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

    Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
    But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
    But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.
    When he was a paid up Johnson fanboi he was up for lockdown 1 as I recall.
    And I've put my hand up and said I was wrong to support it.

    We all make mistakes, I'm happy to own mine.

    Had I known it would last for years, I wouldn't have.
    I look forward to your conceding that Johnson isn't in fact, as you have asserted, the best post war PM, but the worst.

    You are indeed entitled to change your mind.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
    At some stage, PT migrated from liberal skeptic of govt restrictions to full on moonbat.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    maaarsh said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Don't worry, once every one in the country has it on the 24th we can then end quaranteen as a pointless load of bollocks.
    One of my daughters had to train somebody who had a negative LFT. After a few days the trainee had another test and showed positive. At this point she admitted that initially she had had TWO tests, one positive, one negative and decided that the negative one was right.

    So now my daughter's Xmas may well be stuffed thanks to this thoughtless moron...
    FFS - people are fecking stupid. My sympathies for her.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    maaarsh said:

    Presume we've already covered the fact that the 1 death that 'put paid to the idea this was a milder variant' was a 70something anti-vaxxer.

    Not many tears being shed for him in my house.

    Really?

    LOL and gd rddnc.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Nigelb said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.
    The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.
    I think its becoming pretty clear double jabbed isn't now offering much protection from infection.
    But lots of people are experiencing pretty mild symptoms. So thats a good thing.
  • eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

    https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

    Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

    No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
    Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.
    Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.
    In 30 or 40 years’ time, I’ll be able to tell my young grandkids that I was there, on that fateful evening in Abu Dhabi… ;)
    The day Lewis was robbed of the championship and then gracefully retired.

    Toto Wolff seems to be dropping hints that Lewis will not be returning next season.
    Hamilton was knighted this week, which seems a bit premature if he plans to drive next year. But why should Mercedes drop him? Maybe the year after if young George is up to snuff.
  • A relative of the UK's 'first Omicron victim' told LBC that his healthy stepfather died after being taken in by anti-vaxxer "conspiracy theories" and refusing a Covid jab.

    @NickFerrariLBC
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1471437581489475586?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021

    Nigelb said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.
    The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.
    I think its becoming pretty clear double jabbed isn't now offering much protection from infection.
    But lots of people are experiencing pretty mild symptoms. So thats a good thing.
    Oh yes, not saying vaccination isn't offering protection from that. Just saying no invincibility shield against catching it.

    If you aren't vaccinated, you better pray to your god, because your getting in the next couple if weeks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    maaarsh said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Don't worry, once every one in the country has it on the 24th we can then end quaranteen as a pointless load of bollocks.
    One of my daughters had to train somebody who had a negative LFT. After a few days the trainee had another test and showed positive. At this point she admitted that initially she had had TWO tests, one positive, one negative and decided that the negative one was right.

    So now my daughter's Xmas may well be stuffed thanks to this thoughtless moron...
    The Gov't need to REALLY REALLY emphasise that if you get a positive LFT - even if you have other negative ones that you really really will be positive.
    The "accuracy" of LFTs is all about false negatives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Bank of England increases interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% in face of rising inflation

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1471451021327179776?s=20
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    maaarsh said:

    Presume we've already covered the fact that the 1 death that 'put paid to the idea this was a milder variant' was a 70something anti-vaxxer.

    Not many tears being shed for him in my house.

    Where did you see that?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Andy_JS said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Sorry to hear this. Hope you're better as soon as possible.
    Shake it off soon horse. ❤️

    Treat yourself to some proper Manuka honey, it’s good for well being.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
    At some stage, PT migrated from liberal skeptic of govt restrictions to full on moonbat.
    No I'm not a moonbat.

    Moonbats are the antivaxxers or Covid denialists.

    I fully accept Covid is real. I fully Covid is dangerous. I fully accept Covid vaccines are wise. I fully accept people are going to die from Covid.

    I simply don't accept that the price of restrictions are worth the benefits of it. That's not moonbat, that's a price/benefit analysis.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited December 2021
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
    That was indeed the purpose and of course it is legitimate to say that it probably did given death rates would have been far higher without the lockdowns. But to do as Whitty did this morning and claim there have been no adverse effects from lockdown on cancer rates just doesn't fit the facts.

    Edit. I got caught by a phone call and posted before I had finished.

    Moreover I would suggest it is entirely possible that as Philip suggests we may come out the other side of this and find that the 'cure' including lockdown has killed more people than the virus itself.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    Lib Dem - 45 - winning here
    Tory - 38
    Labour - 7
    Re-whatever - 5
    The rest - 5
    My guess: Con 41 LD 40 Lab 8 Re-x 5 Others 5.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited December 2021

    Nigelb said:

    I've just tested positive so that's Christmas probably fucked

    Is there anybody in London who doesn't have covid at the moment? Seems like every London based PBer has it.
    The anecdotage over the last month does suggest a considerably higher rate of infection than anything previously on PB.
    I think its becoming pretty clear double jabbed isn't now offering much protection from infection.
    Infection is not the issue, hospitalisation is and double vaccination still protects against that which would be the only reason for further restrictions. Boosters also help avoid symptomatic Covid.

    The first UK death from Omicron was unvacinnated

    https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1471447559449292800?s=19
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Tory MPs targetting the Chief Medical Officer for giving life-saving advice instead of their PM for muddying this advice and their Chancellor for making zero provision to prepare for what was coming, so utterly inevitably and obviously, to anyone but the most sclerotic denier.
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1471461811631316997
  • Interesting Israel not seeing any real uptick in cases. Now is that their booster programe or restrictions or got lucky not much omicron (yet)?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anecdote:

    One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.

    Every event is now a superspreader event, especially in London, unless one is very lucky.

    And yet the remaining few pray-the-pox-away advocates insist there should not only be no advice for people to Be Careful but all these events should happen regardless.
    Of course they should!

    Don't pray the pox away. Accept it, embrace it. Its here, its endemic, get your vaccine and take your chances.
    So people who are ill with Covid should go out and party. Or people who's immediate family or colleagues are ill.

    Riiiiight.
    If they want to, if they'd party with a cold or cough, why not?

    We're all getting it anyway.
    You seem to have totally gone, Philip. Not a man to have alongside in the trenches. No longer picturing you as Christian Bale. What I'm seeing now is a chicken minus its head.
    I think Philips's been pretty consistent that lockdowns do more harm than good. This isn't him losing his head, this is him reiterating the same point more and more insistently.
    To use the trenches analogy, he's in favour of leaving the trench despite the presence of enemy fire because the trench is filling with acid. He's simply taking a different view to you about which of two not particularly attractive options is the wrong one.

    Instinctively I agree with him. I have to be careful, because emotionally it's the answer I want - I have kids who will be hurt by lockdowns and no-one in my family is in ill-health - am I deciding on the answer I want and then selecting the arguments to justify it? (Everyone does this to some extent). And I am also in danger on settling on this position because I have previously been against lockdown - am I simply placing too great a premium on consistency? Again, everyone does this to some extent.
    But thinking it through, I think I am in still in Philip's boat. To me, the main argument in favour of NPIs at the moment is the danger that we all get it at once, which would be, er inconvenient. But Chris Whitty seems(?) to be suggesting it will peak early (early Jan?) then fall quickly (we hope). To all extents and purposes we are all going to get it at once anyway. NPIs will flatten the sombrero almost not at all.
    But I am also glad not to be the one to have to make the decisions. It's easy for me and Philip to anonymously (or nonymously, in his case) opine on the internet on what should happen - harder when you have a job and a reputation at stake. And while it's not great to be in a state where outcomes are being dictated by what makes the decision-makers least likely to look bad, better that than being in the situation where decision-makers don't care at all what the public think.
    I still support pre-vaccine lockdowns. For me, the cost/benefit is still in their favour. Doesn't mean I'm right, but on my situation and values it's right for me.

    Post-vaccine, I generally do not. I can see (not necessarily accept, but certainly see) an argument for a short lockdown to get to X% boosters (of a very small number of weeks - up to two, say) but I'd want to be convinced that pretty dire things were going to happen otherwise (of course by the time the evidence is in it could be too late).

    What you say emotion and personal circumstances is apt. I and my immediate family unit are all low risk. My concern has been for parents and parents in law who, in various ways, were quie high risk. Once they were vaccinated, I relaxed. Now they're triple vaccinated I'm still pretty relaxed.
This discussion has been closed.