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A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com
A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com
‘Is Boris Johnson a man of honesty and integrity?’It’s the question on everyone’s lips – but our man @MichaelLCrick finds even the North Shropshire Tory by-election candidate @DrNShastriHurst ISN’T sureWatch the full film now ??https://t.co/ZHjFmbsXTk
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It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
I would love to be proved wrong and if the Tories lose I shall celebrate!
Sunak struck me as one of the more astute Tories, but to be on holiday in a national crisis for many small businesses is just wrong for a CoE.
Long day ahead for me at work, but will watch tonight's match on the telly. I don't fancy that crowd even in an FFP3. It is going to be a mass spreading event even with vaxxports.
This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.
The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.
No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.
The post 2012 students got screwed.
My pre-2012 plan 1 loan interest rate is the lower of rpi or boe+1%. My loan recently got sold off. In theory I should be able to settle it at the market value (which is almost certainly below my statement balance amount)…
Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
If your scenario proves correct, a short lockdown (with generous support for businesses, backdated for all of December) to stop a much messier shutdown followed by confirmation of this scenario and the Bacchanalian easing of restrictions in January would be the ticket in my opinion. If your scenario is wrong... Well, at least we're all locked down and hopefully the NHS will not collapse entirely.
Firstly, you have a generation that has unscrupulously fucked over the young, and it has become more and more extreme over the last decade: NI rises to fund pensions; covid lockdowns to protect the old; and 100k student loans that can never be paid off and effectively amount to a higher tax band for life. This phenomenon is not unique to Britain by any means, it is a feature of the 'west' but it seems to be the most extreme in Britain owing to its weaponisation by the Conservative party. The effect is gross insecurity and inequality, as wealthy pensioners pass on their gains to their offspring.
Then you have this other phenomenon, which is coming from young people themselves. And that is this profound guilt about Britain's history and total loss of confidence in its identity; and the associated quest to create a new identity in rejecting it all. This has led to a perverse radicalism which is often totalitarian in character, and has resulted in social and legal experiments in outlawing 'hate' and 'abuse' and 'speech' and even 'thought' which have effectively ended the tradition of free speech, and which have been cynically co-opted even by Conservative governments.
The two together are toxic. But of course, that is not the only set of problems we face. Who is proud of Britain now? Who is honestly confident about the direction in which it is going?
How could he answer questions about something that doesn’t exist and nobody has ever believed existed?
It would be like trying to answer questions about the Flying Spaghetti Monster.
So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.
Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.
(This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
He should have left it.
For those hoping labour will offer a significant write-off or make major changes to benefit graduates, I think they’re mistaken. It’ll cost too much and, as you say, mainly benefit city-type whizz kids.
Although lab will make the right sounds pre-election, if it came to the crunch and they were in power, student loan reform/forgiveness wouldn’t be high on their list of spending priorities.
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp
Don't start on housing though. If they want to buy an appropriately sized family house in this part of the country, it will cost £400,000. Switching the student loan interest to the Bof E base rate +1% isn't going to do anything to help that problem.
It is hard to escape the conclusion from looking in to things like this that this country is not a good place for young people without assets and inherited wealth.
Probably excessively optimistic. But plausible.
But I'll give you some pretty good odds if you like.
Colour me sceptical.
Expect a tough few days for power suppliers...
LD 40
Con 35
Lab 20
Others 5
Johnson gone by April.
The Lib Dems need a high turnout and Labour tactical votes and even then that might not be enough .
Omicron and party gate being older news does help the Tories , if the by-election was last week a much better chance for the Lib Dems as it is I’d be shocked if the Tories don’t hang onto the seat .
If the Lib Dems win, he's finished.
What the actual....? Is that what used to be a PGCE but is now giving you an actual class?
Schools are trying all sorts of scams to avoid spending money, but that stinks.
Gas prices are at a near record level again and we are nowhere near a viable, fully scalable alternative that will keep the lights on and our homes warm in winter.
Still, stop drilling for oil and gas and stop further exploration. All good.
The two credible options are, (a) rebrand as a graduate tax in name as well as intent, but this has the demerit of encouraging people to emigrate to escape the tax, or, (b) abolish the system in its entirety and fund universities from general taxation again.
Edit - could be worse, if they really wanted to troll you they could have offered it to Max Verstappen...
It had been lined up to go five years ago, but the finances collapsed when the Tories withdrew the grants, as you say.
As Stuart explains above, the LibDems actually won on much of the detail and managed to design something that works mostly like a tax rather than a loan. But they totally failed in selling what they had achieved.
And thus the government have been able to keep injecting money into the banks under people's noses without being accused of printing money. Instead they pay the universities the student loan payments, sell the debt to a bank who then use it as an asset.
LD 39.9%
Con 39.3%
Lab 9.6%
Reform UK 6.2%
Green 2.1%
Reclaim 0.8%
UKIP 0.4%
Heritage 0.4%
Rejoin EU 0.3%
Akers-Smith (Ind) 0.3%
Loony 0.3%
Freedom Alliance 0.2%
Kenward (No Descr) 0.1%
Party Party 0.1%
Turnout 43%
Which reminds me, I need to go out later and try to find a Christmas tree!
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_216_2.png
That would bring in snow. Though limited support in other models.
I can't find out how many postal votes were cast in Old Bexley and Sidcup. Does anyone know?
Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
I don't know how the LFTs work, but it could be that the protein they identify is sufficiently different in Omicron to be less easily detected.
The other possible reason is to do with how the sample is collected. If, say, Omicron produced more infection in the throat, rather than the nose, then the LFTs which use a nose swab only would be less likely to pick it up.
There might be other possible explanations.
Was it purely so they could privatise the loan book with as small a discount as possible? Poor form if so.
https://twitter.com/SimonJonesNews/status/1471389814666706944?s=20
France….with around half the booster rate and higher positivity rate than the UK
In view of all the remarks about the 'grey vote' a view from an 80's will be along later.
The simpler solution is surely that Omicron is not quite as prevalent in the community as we fear. But it is spreading fast, no doubt about that. Our steady state of infection over the summer is now taking off and seems likely to go much, much higher. Bloody annoying that this has happened at Christmas again, especially for the hospitality industry as @Cyclefree has demonstrated with her daughter.
Over a hundred Tories rebelled against these motions because they saw the damage this is inflicting upon the economy and those who work for a living like your daughter.
Labour and Keir Starmer nodded these measures through without even asking for support for hospitality or anything else. No qualms or concerns.
What the government is doing is bad, but the Opposition is worse. Worst of both worlds.
She booked them ages ago - a great night out a week before Xmas. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
So another cancellation on the cards. One of the long-time regulars who has cancer is also close to the end. A lovely guy. It has been expected for a while but still a bit of a blow.
Every pub/restaurant around here is suffering in the same way.
It is not good enough to wait for a few weeks to give help. What's needed is not fannying about measures but a cash grant to cover the next 3 months.
Without this lots of businesses will close.
Daughter is not extending her lease, understandably. Still she wanted to end her lease in good order leaving a good business and having had a good Xmas season. Not now. She is heartbroken. And when it closes she can't travel anywhere or have a decent holiday because lots of other places will be shut and the health risks. So it is going to be a bleak few months, lockdown or no bloody lockdown.
I wish there was something I could do to help.
We have triply-vaccinated the vulnerable. What we're doing to people via restrictions and distancing is worse than the virus.
I'd probably still be saving for mine if it wasn't for my parents. It will entrench generational inequality and exposes the Tory mantra that working hard gets you ahead.
I saw a Xmas card from the local Tory MP on the hall table when I got back. She cares about Afghan vets but has not bothered to visit or talk to Daughter and local businesswomen like her despite promising to do so over a year ago and despite living a couple of miles away.
My thoughts when I saw the card last night are unprintable - even on here.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10315219/Tory-backbench-chiefs-join-rebellion-against-Boris.html
"Tory backbench chiefs all join rebellion against Boris – as 1922 Committee leader says he will accept emails of no confidence in the PM over Christmas meaning no let-up in pressure on him if party loses today's North Shropshire by-election
Tory rebels have warned Boris Johnson that things must change by next year or he will have to go
The entire leadership of the 1922 Committee joined the revolt over Mr Johnson's plan for Covid passes
MPs are told that Sir Graham Brady will accept letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister over Christmas
Mr Johnson will suffer another blow to his authority if the Tories lose the North Shropshire by-election"
Still absolutely zero effects from my booster yesterday, I'm guessing because I'm still flush with antibodies from my Delta infection.
I think the difficult part of the current situation is that genuinely it could be (a) mostly fine - a huge increase in cases with a very modest increase in hospitalization/death or (b) terrible - huge cases leading to huge numbers in hospital and dying. I tend very much towards (a) rather than (b), because the SA evidence suggests that, combined with the boosters having already reached the most vulnerable.
But we don't know YET, and it will be a couple more weeks to really get an idea.
People may not be inclined to believe the government but they are scared. My daughter was trying to organise a night out tonight for her year group to celebrate the end of term. She has ultimately given up because too few were willing to risk going out. We are talking a post graduate diploma so the vast majority will be very early 20s. They did not want to be isolating over Christmas and were not willing to take the risk.
It's just one anecdote but I fear nights out before Christmas are going to be a lot rarer and far more poorly attended. It may not be an official lockdown but the optimistic language of July seems a long time ago.
Said it yesterday, but this approach by the Government is categorically stupid. I'll never support vaccine passports, but even if the other restrictions are necessary (I am yet to be persuaded, though we'll find out soon enough) then implementing them to drastically cut hospitality activity while not helping the sector at all is practically designed to kill off businesses.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/16/boris-johnson-news-christmas-latest-north-shropshire-tory-mps/