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A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com

‘Is Boris Johnson a man of honesty and integrity?’It’s the question on everyone’s lips – but our man @MichaelLCrick finds even the North Shropshire Tory by-election candidate @DrNShastriHurst ISN’T sureWatch the full film now ??https://t.co/ZHjFmbsXTk

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First like the Tories in NS

    :rage::disappointed:
  • ... I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)

    Much as I hate to say it, I cannot see them losing with a 41% margin and an electorate that would elect a turnip if it wore a blue rosette.

    I would love to be proved wrong and if the Tories lose I shall celebrate!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    On topic, low on the day turnout because of hankering down from omicron, giving it to the blue meanies because of postal votes?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Boris deserves to lose. But will he? 🤷‍♀️
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited December 2021
    Sorry to hear the news of @Cyclefree Jr. There clearly needs to be some sort of support for pubs, restaurants, theatres etc or it will be a very bleak country for both businesses and customers.

    Sunak struck me as one of the more astute Tories, but to be on holiday in a national crisis for many small businesses is just wrong for a CoE.

    Long day ahead for me at work, but will watch tonight's match on the telly. I don't fancy that crowd even in an FFP3. It is going to be a mass spreading event even with vaxxports.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    Surely ‘whopping’ in the lead? Even though east London majorities can be big.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
  • I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.
  • pingping Posts: 1,679
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    Indeed.

    The post 2012 students got screwed.

    My pre-2012 plan 1 loan interest rate is the lower of rpi or boe+1%. My loan recently got sold off. In theory I should be able to settle it at the market value (which is almost certainly below my statement balance amount)…
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    I’m expecting a relatively comfortable Lib Dem win. No party really deserves to win. But someone has to. Lib Dem win in excess of 5%
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
  • AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Fingers crossed, although I'm doubtful. As you say, unprovable with current testing and therefore not currently falsifiable. That said, even in this scenario I would support restrictions for the coming week in the lead up to Christmas and the festive period. There is potentially much to be gained in buying time. Teachers of my acquaintance are telling me that, in this next week, the primary business of schools will be spreading COVID rather than educating the young. While restrictions are still in place, this is going to cause serious disruptions across the economy and society. @RochdalePioneers argument of lockdown v shutdown was one I found quite convincing. Obviously, it would be irresponsible to remove self isolation etc at the moment, and so in the absence of more restrictions we're heading for shutdown anyway.

    If your scenario proves correct, a short lockdown (with generous support for businesses, backdated for all of December) to stop a much messier shutdown followed by confirmation of this scenario and the Bacchanalian easing of restrictions in January would be the ticket in my opinion. If your scenario is wrong... Well, at least we're all locked down and hopefully the NHS will not collapse entirely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    @darkage we’ve had hate crimes since 2007.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Student loans are a total mess, really make very little sense for all but required professional qualifications from the top universities. The institutions and banks could probably work out a better system themselves, without government needing to be involved.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    ‘the Tory candidate who seems very reluctant to answer direct questions on the PM’s integrity.’

    How could he answer questions about something that doesn’t exist and nobody has ever believed existed?

    It would be like trying to answer questions about the Flying Spaghetti Monster.
  • Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330

    @darkage we’ve had hate crimes since 2007.

    I didn't say that it was a new phenomenon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    and pointless, as it merely increases the headline debt the government will have to take on to its books rather than increasing the ultimate sum repaid.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    and pointless, as it merely increases the headline debt the government will have to take on to its books rather than increasing the ultimate sum repaid.
    That Lib Dem pledge re student fees back in 2010.... it still resonates and surprised its not been thrown at them more by Labour....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    edited December 2021
    I saw a vox pop on the Shropshire election yesterday -I'm not sure on what station as I'm in France at the moment-but from that alone I'd say it'll be a win for the Tories. Hardly anyone had a good word to say for Johnson but neither did anyone said they would vote for anyone else. The Tory Party felt a bit like a religion where even the lapsed wouldn't convert.
  • pingping Posts: 1,679

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    The big political mistake by Osborne was freezing the repayment threshold in, iirc, 2015. It was penny pinching, which set the precedent, making the repayment terms a political issue that could be changed at the whim of a pm/chancellor.

    He should have left it.

    For those hoping labour will offer a significant write-off or make major changes to benefit graduates, I think they’re mistaken. It’ll cost too much and, as you say, mainly benefit city-type whizz kids.

    Although lab will make the right sounds pre-election, if it came to the crunch and they were in power, student loan reform/forgiveness wouldn’t be high on their list of spending priorities.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Something to dream of when travel restrictions end. I have done the Malaysia to Bangkok sleeper some 30 years ago. Very nice route:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    and pointless, as it merely increases the headline debt the government will have to take on to its books rather than increasing the ultimate sum repaid.
    That Lib Dem pledge re student fees back in 2010.... it still resonates and surprised its not been thrown at them more by Labour....
    Introduced by Labour, and the eye watering interest by the Tories. No ones hands are clean.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    That would be a basic start. But they've got to make graduate level training more affordable. My neighbour I was talking about - shes doing a Teaching Assistant job in the day, a degree at night school and bringing up a family. 18K in debt. Then when it is finished, astonishingly, her first year as a teacher is unpaid. All this for becoming a teacher in a few years time - so mid £20k starting salary. The money doesn't get much better as her career goes on, as other people on here will probably attest. She will get there, because they are smart people, make the best of what they have, and the grandparents will help with childcare. But really, it is all wrong. The schools need to find prospective teachers with appropriate skills, and train them up for free.

    Don't start on housing though. If they want to buy an appropriately sized family house in this part of the country, it will cost £400,000. Switching the student loan interest to the Bof E base rate +1% isn't going to do anything to help that problem.

    It is hard to escape the conclusion from looking in to things like this that this country is not a good place for young people without assets and inherited wealth.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    That would be a basic start. But they've got to make graduate level training more affordable. My neighbour I was talking about - shes doing a Teaching Assistant job in the day, a degree at night school and bringing up a family. 18K in debt. Then when it is finished, astonishingly, her first year as a teacher is unpaid. All this for becoming a teacher in a few years time - so mid £20k starting salary. The money doesn't get much better as her career goes on, as other people on here will probably attest. She will get there, because they are smart people, make the best of what they have, and the grandparents will help with childcare. But really, it is all wrong. The schools need to find prospective teachers with appropriate skills, and train them up for free.

    Don't start on housing though. If they want to buy an appropriately sized family house in this part of the country, it will cost £400,000. Switching the student loan interest to the Bof E base rate +1% isn't going to do anything to help that problem.

    It is hard to escape the conclusion from looking in to things like this that this country is not a good place for young people without assets and inherited wealth.
    I agree. Doing something about the SL book should only be one of a package of ways of giving youngsters here a brighter future.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Roger said:

    I saw a vox pop on the Shropshire election yesterday -I'm not sure on what station as I'm in France at the moment-but from that alone I'd say it'll be a win for the Tories. Hardly anyone had a good word to say for Johnson but neither did anyone said they would vote for anyone else. The Tory Party felt a bit like a religion where even the lapsed wouldn't convert.

    Yes, this time tomorrow we will be talking of how the Tory won, as if that was a great feat in one of the bluest bits of Shire Leaverstan.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    That would be a basic start. But they've got to make graduate level training more affordable. My neighbour I was talking about - shes doing a Teaching Assistant job in the day, a degree at night school and bringing up a family. 18K in debt. Then when it is finished, astonishingly, her first year as a teacher is unpaid. All this for becoming a teacher in a few years time - so mid £20k starting salary. The money doesn't get much better as her career goes on, as other people on here will probably attest. She will get there, because they are smart people, make the best of what they have, and the grandparents will help with childcare. But really, it is all wrong. The schools need to find prospective teachers with appropriate skills, and train them up for free.

    Don't start on housing though. If they want to buy an appropriately sized family house in this part of the country, it will cost £400,000. Switching the student loan interest to the Bof E base rate +1% isn't going to do anything to help that problem.

    It is hard to escape the conclusion from looking in to things like this that this country is not a good place for young people without assets and inherited wealth.
    I agree. Doing something about the SL book should only be one of a package of ways of giving youngsters here a brighter future.
    they (the youngsters) need to follow their grandparents examples and get out and vote (every time)....
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Foxy said:

    Something to dream of when travel restrictions end. I have done the Malaysia to Bangkok sleeper some 30 years ago. Very nice route:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp

    I love train travel, not quite to the degree that some on here do; but after about 8 hours it gets very boring; particularly in flat parts of the world.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    That sounds plausible.

    Probably excessively optimistic. But plausible.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    Any predictions on turnout - I am predicting a 41% turnout FWIW.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,843
    edited December 2021
    So, all the right-wing posters are suggesting A comfy LD gain while those on the other side think the Tories will hold. Testbook expectation management day methinks. I'll go off the grid and say a Labour gain :smiley:
  • Foxy said:

    Something to dream of when travel restrictions end. I have done the Malaysia to Bangkok sleeper some 30 years ago. Very nice route:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp

    This is the kind of thing I'd love to do once I'm retired. I love long train journeys, and have very happy memories of a 2 day trip from Delhi to Chennai when I was 18.
  • Wes Streeting less impressive on R4 than usual this morning…
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    felix said:

    So, all the right-wing posters are suggesting A comfy LD gain while those on the other side think the Tories will hold. Testbook expectation management day methinks. I'll go off the grid and say a Labour gain :smiley:

    Not impossible.

    But I'll give you some pretty good odds if you like. :smile:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?

    Colour me sceptical.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited December 2021
    Very little wind today.

    Expect a tough few days for power suppliers...
  • Prediction:
    LD 40
    Con 35
    Lab 20
    Others 5

    Johnson gone by April.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 608
    Although the constituency was 59 to 41 for Leave that’s unlikely to be the case now given some buyers remorse which has showed up in the YouGov trackers so more like 55 to 45 now .

    The Lib Dems need a high turnout and Labour tactical votes and even then that might not be enough .

    Omicron and party gate being older news does help the Tories , if the by-election was last week a much better chance for the Lib Dems as it is I’d be shocked if the Tories don’t hang onto the seat .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    Any predictions on turnout - I am predicting a 41% turnout FWIW.

    My fellow illuminati members tell me it's been fixed at 43%, if that's any help.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    Roger said:

    I saw a vox pop on the Shropshire election yesterday -I'm not sure on what station as I'm in France at the moment-but from that alone I'd say it'll be a win for the Tories. Hardly anyone had a good word to say for Johnson but neither did anyone said they would vote for anyone else. The Tory Party felt a bit like a religion where even the lapsed wouldn't convert.

    Convert to whom though Roger? To the lockdown fanatics and associated wierdos of Labour? To the Lib Dems who appear to be most fervently about Europe and transsexuals? To whoever Reform are? This isn't 1997 where a frustrated ex-Tory had other parties falling over themselves for his vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Prediction:
    LD 40
    Con 35
    Lab 20
    Others 5

    Johnson gone by April.

    Anything below Con 45 and he is in big, big trouble. The only time their vote has dipped below that in this constituency at a general election was in 1997, when it was 40% (coincidentally,the same as in the by-election of 1961).

    If the Lib Dems win, he's finished.
  • darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    That would be a basic start. But they've got to make graduate level training more affordable. My neighbour I was talking about - shes doing a Teaching Assistant job in the day, a degree at night school and bringing up a family. 18K in debt. Then when it is finished, astonishingly, her first year as a teacher is unpaid. All this for becoming a teacher in a few years time - so mid £20k starting salary. The money doesn't get much better as her career goes on, as other people on here will probably attest. She will get there, because they are smart people, make the best of what they have, and the grandparents will help with childcare. But really, it is all wrong. The schools need to find prospective teachers with appropriate skills, and train them up for free.

    Don't start on housing though. If they want to buy an appropriately sized family house in this part of the country, it will cost £400,000. Switching the student loan interest to the Bof E base rate +1% isn't going to do anything to help that problem.

    It is hard to escape the conclusion from looking in to things like this that this country is not a good place for young people without assets and inherited wealth.
    First year unpaid?

    What the actual....? Is that what used to be a PGCE but is now giving you an actual class?

    Schools are trying all sorts of scams to avoid spending money, but that stinks.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    ydoethur said:

    Very little wind today.

    Expect a tough few days for power suppliers...

    People, this is your future thanks to the green lobby.

    Gas prices are at a near record level again and we are nowhere near a viable, fully scalable alternative that will keep the lights on and our homes warm in winter.

    Still, stop drilling for oil and gas and stop further exploration. All good.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    Foxy said:

    Something to dream of when travel restrictions end. I have done the Malaysia to Bangkok sleeper some 30 years ago. Very nice route:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp

    I had a long standing agreement with my wife that when we finally relocated from Singapore, she’d go business class and I’d go by train. Covid put paid to my side of the bargain, so we both flew economy :-)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Something to dream of when travel restrictions end. I have done the Malaysia to Bangkok sleeper some 30 years ago. Very nice route:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp

    Have the trans-Siberian on the bucket list. We had it in pencil for 2021 a couple of years ago, but the damn pandemic screwed up the plans somewhat. Maybe 2023 now.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,941
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    The system is structured the way it is because students aren't meant to be able to pay the debt off. In many ways if you make it a little easier for students to repay the debt then you make the system worse, because you will create a more obvious divide between higher-earners who manage to repay the debt early, and pay less interest, and middle-earners who are never able to repay the debt and so end up paying more overall, and you reduce the money it raises solely for the benefit of the highest earners.

    The two credible options are, (a) rebrand as a graduate tax in name as well as intent, but this has the demerit of encouraging people to emigrate to escape the tax, or, (b) abolish the system in its entirety and fund universities from general taxation again.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    I wonder how many soft LD votes are going to decide to stay home in the face of Omicron.
  • darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    That would be a basic start. But they've got to make graduate level training more affordable. My neighbour I was talking about - shes doing a Teaching Assistant job in the day, a degree at night school and bringing up a family. 18K in debt. Then when it is finished, astonishingly, her first year as a teacher is unpaid. All this for becoming a teacher in a few years time - so mid £20k starting salary. The money doesn't get much better as her career goes on, as other people on here will probably attest. She will get there, because they are smart people, make the best of what they have, and the grandparents will help with childcare. But really, it is all wrong. The schools need to find prospective teachers with appropriate skills, and train them up for free.

    Don't start on housing though. If they want to buy an appropriately sized family house in this part of the country, it will cost £400,000. Switching the student loan interest to the Bof E base rate +1% isn't going to do anything to help that problem.

    It is hard to escape the conclusion from looking in to things like this that this country is not a good place for young people without assets and inherited wealth.
    First year unpaid?

    What the actual....? Is that what used to be a PGCE but is now giving you an actual class?

    Schools are trying all sorts of scams to avoid spending money, but that stinks.
    We have some trainee teachers who are not paid by us, but as they don’t have a timetable and can only take lessons when the normal teacher is there observing them and giving feedback afterwards (for which we have to give those teachers time in their timetables) that seems fair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    Have to say that the choice of Smith as Australian captain rubs me up the wrong way.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    Roger said:

    I saw a vox pop on the Shropshire election yesterday -I'm not sure on what station as I'm in France at the moment-but from that alone I'd say it'll be a win for the Tories. Hardly anyone had a good word to say for Johnson but neither did anyone said they would vote for anyone else. The Tory Party felt a bit like a religion where even the lapsed wouldn't convert.

    We don’t know of course how representatively the people screened were, but that was my feeling also. The dissatisfied Tories were all doing their best impressions of Big_G, but a lot of them saying they will make their mind up on the day normally means they won’t actually change, or at best stay at home. And those sort of middle aged Tory folk will find abstaining difficult.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Have to say that the choice of Smith as Australian captain rubs me up the wrong way.

    Like sandpaper on a cricket ball?

    Edit - could be worse, if they really wanted to troll you they could have offered it to Max Verstappen...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Very little wind today.

    Expect a tough few days for power suppliers...

    People, this is your future thanks to the green lobby.

    Gas prices are at a near record level again and we are nowhere near a viable, fully scalable alternative that will keep the lights on and our homes warm in winter.

    Still, stop drilling for oil and gas and stop further exploration. All good.
    When we have five times the wind capacity then wind would still be generating a respectable 12 GW or so on a day like today, and we'd have the excess from previous days stored. If we would build the tidal lagoons, and the mini-nuke reactors too, then our exposure to fluctuations in global fossil fuel prices would be much reduced, perhaps eliminated.
    Which is why, in a litany of silly mistakes, May's abandonment of tidal power was her worst one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    The system is structured the way it is because students aren't meant to be able to pay the debt off. In many ways if you make it a little easier for students to repay the debt then you make the system worse, because you will create a more obvious divide between higher-earners who manage to repay the debt early, and pay less interest, and middle-earners who are never able to repay the debt and so end up paying more overall, and you reduce the money it raises solely for the benefit of the highest earners.

    The two credible options are, (a) rebrand as a graduate tax in name as well as intent, but this has the demerit of encouraging people to emigrate to escape the tax, or, (b) abolish the system in its entirety and fund universities from general taxation again.
    I’m sure I remember that at the time one of the arguments against a graduate tax rather than a loan was that students from the rest of the EU would be able to have a free education here then go home and never have to pay the tax, but I can’t remember what happens with EU based students (so not those who lived in the UK normally) and loans: were they expected just to pay everything up front, or could they also take out a loan?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Very little wind today.

    Expect a tough few days for power suppliers...

    People, this is your future thanks to the green lobby.

    Gas prices are at a near record level again and we are nowhere near a viable, fully scalable alternative that will keep the lights on and our homes warm in winter.

    Still, stop drilling for oil and gas and stop further exploration. All good.
    When we have five times the wind capacity then wind would still be generating a respectable 12 GW or so on a day like today, and we'd have the excess from previous days stored. If we would build the tidal lagoons, and the mini-nuke reactors too, then our exposure to fluctuations in global fossil fuel prices would be much reduced, perhaps eliminated.
    Which is why, in a litany of silly mistakes, May's abandonment of tidal power was her worst one.
    Our local tidal energy scheme just got conditional planning approval from the county council. It looks like the plan is to spend 2022 on the detailed plans and getting the other approvals they need, with construction 2023-4 and go live 2025.

    It had been lined up to go five years ago, but the finances collapsed when the Tories withdrew the grants, as you say.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    and pointless, as it merely increases the headline debt the government will have to take on to its books rather than increasing the ultimate sum repaid.
    That Lib Dem pledge re student fees back in 2010.... it still resonates and surprised its not been thrown at them more by Labour....
    Introduced by Labour, and the eye watering interest by the Tories. No ones hands are clean.
    Labour broke a clear election pledge, as well.

    As Stuart explains above, the LibDems actually won on much of the detail and managed to design something that works mostly like a tax rather than a loan. But they totally failed in selling what they had achieved.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    The system is structured the way it is because students aren't meant to be able to pay the debt off. In many ways if you make it a little easier for students to repay the debt then you make the system worse, because you will create a more obvious divide between higher-earners who manage to repay the debt early, and pay less interest, and middle-earners who are never able to repay the debt and so end up paying more overall, and you reduce the money it raises solely for the benefit of the highest earners.

    The two credible options are, (a) rebrand as a graduate tax in name as well as intent, but this has the demerit of encouraging people to emigrate to escape the tax, or, (b) abolish the system in its entirety and fund universities from general taxation again.
    I’m sure I remember that at the time one of the arguments against a graduate tax rather than a loan was that students from the rest of the EU would be able to have a free education here then go home and never have to pay the tax, but I can’t remember what happens with EU based students (so not those who lived in the UK normally) and loans: were they expected just to pay everything up front, or could they also take out a loan?
    Loss of funding from foreign students’ fees has hit the sector significantly.
  • ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    and pointless, as it merely increases the headline debt the government will have to take on to its books rather than increasing the ultimate sum repaid.
    I think I understand it. Remember that we replaced capitalism with bankism in this country. Debt is now an asset - student loans are sold off and thus show as revenue on the new owner's books. Debt is now an asset. The more debt, the higher the value of the asset.

    And thus the government have been able to keep injecting money into the banks under people's noses without being accused of printing money. Instead they pay the universities the student loan payments, sell the debt to a bank who then use it as an asset.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    This is my prediction for the North Shropshire by-election. (I originally posted it on the VoteUK forum last night because they're running a competition).

    LD 39.9%
    Con 39.3%
    Lab 9.6%
    Reform UK 6.2%
    Green 2.1%
    Reclaim 0.8%
    UKIP 0.4%
    Heritage 0.4%
    Rejoin EU 0.3%
    Akers-Smith (Ind) 0.3%
    Loony 0.3%
    Freedom Alliance 0.2%
    Kenward (No Descr) 0.1%
    Party Party 0.1%

    Turnout 43%
  • IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    The system is structured the way it is because students aren't meant to be able to pay the debt off. In many ways if you make it a little easier for students to repay the debt then you make the system worse, because you will create a more obvious divide between higher-earners who manage to repay the debt early, and pay less interest, and middle-earners who are never able to repay the debt and so end up paying more overall, and you reduce the money it raises solely for the benefit of the highest earners.

    The two credible options are, (a) rebrand as a graduate tax in name as well as intent, but this has the demerit of encouraging people to emigrate to escape the tax, or, (b) abolish the system in its entirety and fund universities from general taxation again.
    I’m sure I remember that at the time one of the arguments against a graduate tax rather than a loan was that students from the rest of the EU would be able to have a free education here then go home and never have to pay the tax, but I can’t remember what happens with EU based students (so not those who lived in the UK normally) and loans: were they expected just to pay everything up front, or could they also take out a loan?
    Loss of funding from foreign students’ fees has hit the sector significantly.
    Since when? The introduction of the present loan system, or Brexit?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Something to dream of when travel restrictions end. I have done the Malaysia to Bangkok sleeper some 30 years ago. Very nice route:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp

    Have the trans-Siberian on the bucket list. We had it in pencil for 2021 a couple of years ago, but the damn pandemic screwed up the plans somewhat. Maybe 2023 now.
    All that time in the desert and you are pining for fir trees…
  • DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    Anecdotally heard of people with cold symptoms who have done LFTs with negative results initially. After a while it then produces a positive. Either they had a cold and then Omicron or Omicron itself has this effect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    AlistairM said:

    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    Anecdotally heard of people with cold symptoms who have done LFTs with negative results initially. After a while it then produces a positive. Either they had a cold and then Omicron or Omicron itself has this effect.
    If your name happens to be Sean the tests come back negative throughout and yet an ordinary cold transforms into becoming patient zero for whatever dreadful variant is just breaking in the news….
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    There will be some massive write off of the SL book at some point. There needs to be. If RPI stays at this level, those paying it off will have more debt at the end of the year than the beginning. It is usury.
    Trouble is that a massive write-off after 30 years as a design feature of the scheme. For most graduates, it's designed to work as a graduate tax that can't call itself a tax because reasons. Hence the interest to push repayment ever over the horizon.

    So to do a Corbyn-style write-off now would mainly benefit those who will pay it off; mainly City whizzkids.

    Basically one of those technocratic solutions that works fine on a spreadsheet but fails with real people because the language of debt and interest is used by the government when it's really misleading.

    (This is why the government's repeatedly rumoured plans to lower the repayment threshold won't help graduates- they're not meant to repay the total on the statement.)
    I would suggest that the SL book should go to BoE base rate plus 1%. It may not make a great deal of difference in terms of incoming revenue, but more graduates will pay off their balance and fewer get written off after 30 years. It is very demoralising to see the sum on the statement get larger rather than smaller each year.
    The system is structured the way it is because students aren't meant to be able to pay the debt off. In many ways if you make it a little easier for students to repay the debt then you make the system worse, because you will create a more obvious divide between higher-earners who manage to repay the debt early, and pay less interest, and middle-earners who are never able to repay the debt and so end up paying more overall, and you reduce the money it raises solely for the benefit of the highest earners.

    The two credible options are, (a) rebrand as a graduate tax in name as well as intent, but this has the demerit of encouraging people to emigrate to escape the tax, or, (b) abolish the system in its entirety and fund universities from general taxation again.
    I’m sure I remember that at the time one of the arguments against a graduate tax rather than a loan was that students from the rest of the EU would be able to have a free education here then go home and never have to pay the tax, but I can’t remember what happens with EU based students (so not those who lived in the UK normally) and loans: were they expected just to pay everything up front, or could they also take out a loan?
    Loss of funding from foreign students’ fees has hit the sector significantly.
    Since when? The introduction of the present loan system, or Brexit?
    Covid mostly, I would have thought. Starbucks University is all about the experience not the learning. It is nowhere near as good online.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Something to dream of when travel restrictions end. I have done the Malaysia to Bangkok sleeper some 30 years ago. Very nice route:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-singapore-train-rail-travel-b1975630.html?amp

    Have the trans-Siberian on the bucket list. We had it in pencil for 2021 a couple of years ago, but the damn pandemic screwed up the plans somewhat. Maybe 2023 now.
    All that time in the desert and you are pining for fir trees…
    Makes a change from palm trees!

    Which reminds me, I need to go out later and try to find a Christmas tree!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    A White Christmas is still not impossible. Here’s the ECMWF run this morning.

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_216_2.png



    That would bring in snow. Though limited support in other models.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    AlistairM said:

    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    Anecdotally heard of people with cold symptoms who have done LFTs with negative results initially. After a while it then produces a positive. Either they had a cold and then Omicron or Omicron itself has this effect.
    Negative LFT this morning, so off to work for me. I wonder how many no-shows in clinic today?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    rcs1000 said:

    Any predictions on turnout - I am predicting a 41% turnout FWIW.

    My fellow illuminati members tell me it's been fixed at 43%, if that's any help.
    Have they told you the result. Would be handy to know.
  • Alistair said:

    I wonder how many soft LD votes are going to decide to stay home in the face of Omicron.

    There's that, but then the older voters are those most concerned by Covid, and they're more likely to be Tory - how many will have postal votes?

    I can't find out how many postal votes were cast in Old Bexley and Sidcup. Does anyone know?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?

    Colour me sceptical.
    I've taken out unsecured loans at this rate. Admittedly not recently though.

    Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Alistair said:

    I wonder how many soft LD votes are going to decide to stay home in the face of Omicron.

    I can't see it having an impact on any particular party.
  • DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    We know that in the PCR tests Omicron has the S-gene target failure - this is jargon to say that one of the three proteins the PCR test looks for is sufficiently different in Omicron that it isn't identified. The positive test is determined by identifying the two other proteins.

    I don't know how the LFTs work, but it could be that the protein they identify is sufficiently different in Omicron to be less easily detected.

    The other possible reason is to do with how the sample is collected. If, say, Omicron produced more infection in the throat, rather than the nose, then the LFTs which use a nose swab only would be less likely to pick it up.

    There might be other possible explanations.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330

    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    We know that in the PCR tests Omicron has the S-gene target failure - this is jargon to say that one of the three proteins the PCR test looks for is sufficiently different in Omicron that it isn't identified. The positive test is determined by identifying the two other proteins.

    I don't know how the LFTs work, but it could be that the protein they identify is sufficiently different in Omicron to be less easily detected.

    The other possible reason is to do with how the sample is collected. If, say, Omicron produced more infection in the throat, rather than the nose, then the LFTs which use a nose swab only would be less likely to pick it up.

    There might be other possible explanations.
    Omicron as a by product of mass psychosis?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?

    Colour me sceptical.
    I've taken out unsecured loans at this rate. Admittedly not recently though.

    Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
    What was the politicos rationale for the interest rate being so high? If you get a high flying job and reach six figures in your 20s, you pay it off early. The bigger chunk will presumably never pay it off. But there will be plenty in the middle who do pay it off but take most of their working life to do so.

    Was it purely so they could privatise the loan book with as small a discount as possible? Poor form if so.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,799
    edited December 2021
    France is to tighten up restrictions on travel from Britain following the spread of the Omicron variant. Returning travellers will need a negative test taken less than 24 hours before travel, and tourism is to be limited.

    https://twitter.com/SimonJonesNews/status/1471389814666706944?s=20

    France….with around half the booster rate and higher positivity rate than the UK
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    IanB2 said:

    AlistairM said:

    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    Anecdotally heard of people with cold symptoms who have done LFTs with negative results initially. After a while it then produces a positive. Either they had a cold and then Omicron or Omicron itself has this effect.
    If your name happens to be Sean the tests come back negative throughout and yet an ordinary cold transforms into becoming patient zero for whatever dreadful variant is just breaking in the news….
    Plus an inexplicable desire to sleep following a boozy lunch in the Cap d'Antibes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Good morning one and all. Late start this morning.

    In view of all the remarks about the 'grey vote' a view from an 80's will be along later.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    We know that in the PCR tests Omicron has the S-gene target failure - this is jargon to say that one of the three proteins the PCR test looks for is sufficiently different in Omicron that it isn't identified. The positive test is determined by identifying the two other proteins.

    I don't know how the LFTs work, but it could be that the protein they identify is sufficiently different in Omicron to be less easily detected.

    The other possible reason is to do with how the sample is collected. If, say, Omicron produced more infection in the throat, rather than the nose, then the LFTs which use a nose swab only would be less likely to pick it up.

    There might be other possible explanations.
    When I have done LFTs I have swabbed both my throat and my nose. Isn't that standard? The government are putting a lot of emphasis on LFTs, even if they ran out of them. I really don't see them doing that if they were not working.

    The simpler solution is surely that Omicron is not quite as prevalent in the community as we fear. But it is spreading fast, no doubt about that. Our steady state of infection over the summer is now taking off and seems likely to go much, much higher. Bloody annoying that this has happened at Christmas again, especially for the hospitality industry as @Cyclefree has demonstrated with her daughter.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    moonshine said:

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?

    Colour me sceptical.
    I've taken out unsecured loans at this rate. Admittedly not recently though.

    Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
    What was the politicos rationale for the interest rate being so high? If you get a high flying job and reach six figures in your 20s, you pay it off early. The bigger chunk will presumably never pay it off. But there will be plenty in the middle who do pay it off but take most of their working life to do so.

    Was it purely so they could privatise the loan book with as small a discount as possible? Poor form if so.
    Well it was all pursued in the interest of sound public finances. Balancing the books. Paying our way in the world. Cutting the deficit. Strong and stable government in the National Interest.
  • Cyclefree said:

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.

    Very well written post at the end of the previous post and I feel awful for people like your daughter, but who to vote for at the ballot box?

    Over a hundred Tories rebelled against these motions because they saw the damage this is inflicting upon the economy and those who work for a living like your daughter.

    Labour and Keir Starmer nodded these measures through without even asking for support for hospitality or anything else. No qualms or concerns.

    What the government is doing is bad, but the Opposition is worse. Worst of both worlds.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,298
    edited December 2021
    Today's decision for Daughter is whether to cancel the band she had booked for Saturday. It is a very popular band and the pub is normally rammed whenever it appears. But she has to pay them and if people don't turn up, it is pointless and costs her money.

    She booked them ages ago - a great night out a week before Xmas. It seemed like a good idea at the time.

    So another cancellation on the cards. One of the long-time regulars who has cancer is also close to the end. A lovely guy. It has been expected for a while but still a bit of a blow.

    Every pub/restaurant around here is suffering in the same way.

    It is not good enough to wait for a few weeks to give help. What's needed is not fannying about measures but a cash grant to cover the next 3 months.

    Without this lots of businesses will close.

    Daughter is not extending her lease, understandably. Still she wanted to end her lease in good order leaving a good business and having had a good Xmas season. Not now. She is heartbroken. And when it closes she can't travel anywhere or have a decent holiday because lots of other places will be shut and the health risks. So it is going to be a bleak few months, lockdown or no bloody lockdown.

    I wish there was something I could do to help.

  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    We know that in the PCR tests Omicron has the S-gene target failure - this is jargon to say that one of the three proteins the PCR test looks for is sufficiently different in Omicron that it isn't identified. The positive test is determined by identifying the two other proteins.

    I don't know how the LFTs work, but it could be that the protein they identify is sufficiently different in Omicron to be less easily detected.

    The other possible reason is to do with how the sample is collected. If, say, Omicron produced more infection in the throat, rather than the nose, then the LFTs which use a nose swab only would be less likely to pick it up.

    There might be other possible explanations.
    When I have done LFTs I have swabbed both my throat and my nose. Isn't that standard? The government are putting a lot of emphasis on LFTs, even if they ran out of them. I really don't see them doing that if they were not working.

    The simpler solution is surely that Omicron is not quite as prevalent in the community as we fear. But it is spreading fast, no doubt about that. Our steady state of infection over the summer is now taking off and seems likely to go much, much higher. Bloody annoying that this has happened at Christmas again, especially for the hospitality industry as @Cyclefree has demonstrated with her daughter.
    Which is why the backbenchers rebelling against this were entirely right and not 'loons'.

    We have triply-vaccinated the vulnerable. What we're doing to people via restrictions and distancing is worse than the virus.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709
    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?

    Colour me sceptical.
    I've taken out unsecured loans at this rate. Admittedly not recently though.

    Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
    The "borrow off wealthy relative" approach is the only option open to most in their 20s when it comes to a first flat.

    I'd probably still be saving for mine if it wasn't for my parents. It will entrench generational inequality and exposes the Tory mantra that working hard gets you ahead.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    I can't remember a chancellor who's been out of the limelight for as long as Rishi Sunak has been recently. He's been in California apparently.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Eabhal said:

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?

    Colour me sceptical.
    I've taken out unsecured loans at this rate. Admittedly not recently though.

    Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
    The "borrow off wealthy relative" approach is the only option open to most in their 20s when it comes to a first flat.

    I'd probably still be saving for mine if it wasn't for my parents. It will entrench generational inequality and exposes the Tory mantra that working hard gets you ahead.
    Thats exactly right. Try and calculate how much you would need to save, 2x people on mid 20k salaries to buy a £400k house to bring up a family. It will never happen. Almost all the parents at my childs school who own their houses have acquired them through inherited wealth.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    1922 Committee to accept emails.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10315219/Tory-backbench-chiefs-join-rebellion-against-Boris.html

    "Tory backbench chiefs all join rebellion against Boris – as 1922 Committee leader says he will accept emails of no confidence in the PM over Christmas meaning no let-up in pressure on him if party loses today's North Shropshire by-election

    Tory rebels have warned Boris Johnson that things must change by next year or he will have to go
    The entire leadership of the 1922 Committee joined the revolt over Mr Johnson's plan for Covid passes
    MPs are told that Sir Graham Brady will accept letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister over Christmas
    Mr Johnson will suffer another blow to his authority if the Tories lose the North Shropshire by-election"
  • Youngest daughter just tested positive, presumably with Omicron... Nasty headache and temperature but otherwise OK. Looks like it will be a quiet Christmas again this year.
    Still absolutely zero effects from my booster yesterday, I'm guessing because I'm still flush with antibodies from my Delta infection.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    AlistairM said:

    DavidL said:

    AlistairM said:

    I have a theory on Omicron. I think in many, many cases it is producing cold-like symptoms and negative LFTs. These people are carrying on as normal and spreading it around. Therefore the number of real cases is far, far higher than official statistics. Given this the actual severity is much reduced compared to previous variants.

    This does not mean that it cannot put severe pressures on health systems. Given the huge case numbers even a much reduced severity would produce more hospitalisations.

    The other logical outcome if this is true is that over the next few weeks Omicron will rush through the whole population. This would result in us getting to herd immunity very quickly.

    No way to prove this at all. But it is a possibility.

    Why would Omicron produce negative LFTs though?
    Anecdotally heard of people with cold symptoms who have done LFTs with negative results initially. After a while it then produces a positive. Either they had a cold and then Omicron or Omicron itself has this effect.
    I had sore throat/headache last Friday/Sat, tested negative. Felt fine since, so no further tests, Am boosted + 4 weeks. Its entirely possible I had a brief tussle with covid (in @Leon style - no proof). But we don't know.

    I think the difficult part of the current situation is that genuinely it could be (a) mostly fine - a huge increase in cases with a very modest increase in hospitalization/death or (b) terrible - huge cases leading to huge numbers in hospital and dying. I tend very much towards (a) rather than (b), because the SA evidence suggests that, combined with the boosters having already reached the most vulnerable.

    But we don't know YET, and it will be a couple more weeks to really get an idea.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Cyclefree said:

    Today's decision for Daughter is whether to cancel the band she had booked for Saturday. It is a very popular band and the pub is normally rammed whenever it appears. But she has to pay them and if people don't turn up, it is pointless and costs her money.

    She booked them ages ago - a great night out a week before Xmas. It seemed like a good idea at the time.

    So another cancellation on the cards. One of the long-time regulars who has cancer is also close to the end. A lovely guy. It has been expected for a while but still a bit of a blow.

    Every pub/restaurant around here is suffering in the same way.

    It is not good enough to wait for a few weeks to give help. What's needed is not fannying about measures but a cash grant to cover the next 3 months.

    Without this lots of businesses will close.

    Daughter is not extending her lease, understandably. Still she wanted to end her lease in good order leaving a good business and having had a good Xmas season. Not now. She is heartbroken. And when it closes she can't travel anywhere or have a decent holiday because lots of other places will be shut and the health risks. So it is going to be a bleak few months, lockdown or no bloody lockdown.

    I wish there was something I could do to help.

    Would a one off grant of the type given before really help? The problem seems to be that businesses such as your daughter's have simply become a lot less viable when we live with the uncertainty of Covid and new variants. Its hellish that the all so important Christmas season has been hit so hard for the second year in a row but this just might be the new normal for many years to come.

    People may not be inclined to believe the government but they are scared. My daughter was trying to organise a night out tonight for her year group to celebrate the end of term. She has ultimately given up because too few were willing to risk going out. We are talking a post graduate diploma so the vast majority will be very early 20s. They did not want to be isolating over Christmas and were not willing to take the risk.

    It's just one anecdote but I fear nights out before Christmas are going to be a lot rarer and far more poorly attended. It may not be an official lockdown but the optimistic language of July seems a long time ago.
  • Miss Cyclefree, my sympathies, must be very tough on your daughter, and you.

    Said it yesterday, but this approach by the Government is categorically stupid. I'll never support vaccine passports, but even if the other restrictions are necessary (I am yet to be persuaded, though we'll find out soon enough) then implementing them to drastically cut hospitality activity while not helping the sector at all is practically designed to kill off businesses.
  • My daughter in law text overnight to say the Federal Canadian Government has just advised against all non essential foreign travel over omicron variant
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    "Rishi Sunak under pressure to support pubs as thousands face collapse amid Christmas cancellations" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/16/boris-johnson-news-christmas-latest-north-shropshire-tory-mps/
This discussion has been closed.