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A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,784
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    I can't take credit for this, but posting because it tickled me:

    'The current advice seems to be to hold parties but don't go to them.'

    I once did that. I threw a big party but didn't go to it. I fancied it created a bit of an enigmatic aura around me - not so much who is that man (like with Gatsby) but more where is that man?

    And it was a good do, by all accounts.
    I can't believe nobody has asked this yet; Why?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    More criticism for Whitty from Conservative benches.

    Steve Baker to Treasury minister: "What reassurance can he give me that when officials speak, particularly on podiums at press conferences, that they are staying within the bounds of the policy that ministers have decided?"

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471434988289671174
  • Leon said:

    It’s time we - as PB-ers, as humans, nay, as Britons and Christians and the inheritors of Empire - squared up to the facts and looked Fate in the eye, with a snort of manly contempt, and accepted that everything has changed. We must change with it. Adapt. Be cunning and yet courageous. And that means one thing. No, not ‘let it rip’. No, not ‘lock down everything forever’.

    It’s time for COWARDLY MASS SUICIDE

    Bad hangover?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,826

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19778640.expert-claims-hadrians-wall-came-existing-anglo-scots-defences/?ref=ar

    Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.

    Genetic mapping shows that most Scots and English are identical. Sorry
    Nothing to do with that: just that the topography obviously forces a cultural border on that line on the evidence. Despite many unionists claiming it's a modern construct.

    All irrelevant to modern politics - especially the genetics - except for debunking various myuths.
    Except it doesn't. There is no real difference between the landscape 50 miles north of that line and 50 miles south. The line was chosen by the Romans for much of its length because it sits on an igneous intrusion known as the Whin Sill. Good foundations. But that same intrusion also forms High Force many miles to the south. If you were going to make such claims (not you personally of course) then the obvious choice would be the Firth of Forth. Lowland Scotland south of Edinburgh and Glasgow was no different from Northern England in terms of its occupation styles and the main identifiable cultural difference - the Pictish settlement - is again north of the Firth of Forth.
    AIUI the chap argues trhat there are indeed visible cultural differences on the border [not the Wall line]. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    darkage said:

    moonshine said:

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.

    Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.

    Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.

    And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
    I've just got home.

    My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.

    She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.

    A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.

    Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?

    She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.

    I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.

    More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.

    But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
    This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.

    It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
    Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
    That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
    I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.

    Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
    Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?

    Colour me sceptical.
    I've taken out unsecured loans at this rate. Admittedly not recently though.

    Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
    What was the politicos rationale for the interest rate being so high? If you get a high flying job and reach six figures in your 20s, you pay it off early. The bigger chunk will presumably never pay it off. But there will be plenty in the middle who do pay it off but take most of their working life to do so.

    Was it purely so they could privatise the loan book with as small a discount as possible? Poor form if so.
    Well it was all pursued in the interest of sound public finances. Balancing the books. Paying our way in the world. Cutting the deficit. Strong and stable government in the National Interest.
    Well yes, but it was all based on the premise that we needed to send 50% of our youth to university. Take that arbitrary target away and it becomes somewhat easier to suppose that do go through university.
    We could even decide to pay the tuition fees of those doing courses we were looking to encourage (i.e. STEM courses).
    The fundamental problem is the decreasing graduate premium (which is, of course, a result of there being too many graduates). It simply makes no sense to spend 4-5 years of a 45 year career training and studying incurring over £100k of debt to earn salaries of less than £50k. As you point out those that do will never repay their student "loans" and will simply pay what is effectively a higher tax rate for most of their careers making the housing ladder more inaccessible and pension provision more challenging. How distant the Tory dream of a property owning democracy seems now.
    Mass property ownership was only feasible because decades of social democracy had flattened the income and wealth distribution. Now, decades of Thatcherism have led to an increasing concentration of wealth. In other words, mass home ownership and popular share ownership were only transitory phases. The real Tory dream is the rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate, and that is where we are heading.
    Over 2/3 of the UK population still own the property in which theyl ive, either outright or with a mortgage. 100 years ago most of the population rented. The Tory dream is still that the majority own their own homes and many get shares too as that is the most likely way to make them vote Tory eg the Tories did not get 10 consecutive years in power since universal suffrage until the expansion of property ownership and housebuilding under Macmillan and they then extended that after Thatcher endabled more to buy their their own council homes from 1979-1997.

    When I met my wife, back in the 50's, her family. father a senior, albeit local, nationalised industry official, lived in a council house. Many of their neighbours were similar middle management types.
    When I bought our second family home, in the late 60's the bank manager remarked that 'a figure of £14k might, in today's inflationary times, be paid'. That house today is probably worth 3/4 million.

    My in-laws old house doesn't look anywhere near as smart and well-kept, nor does the rest of the row and 60 years ago.
    I expect the owners are more likely to vote Tory though (and that is a rarity, generally owner occupied ex council houses tend to be well kept)
    It's currently a Labour seat although the Tory vote in the constituency has increased over the past few years. Around 20 years ago it swung between Libs/LD's and Labour. Back in the 50's it was Tory, but then their vote collapsed.
    Thatcher won lots of seats in the 1980s in working class areas that had always been Labour, even in the 1950s, mainly because of council house sales
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    STOP FUCKING WHINGEING

    Still on the hallucinogenics?
    No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH

    Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
    Bit early for me. I mean, the sun's only just up. But I've come in from tidying my shed for the winter and am happy to say that I am now going to go back to more tidying and will trouble you no more.
    What is this sun you speak of?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Alistair said:

    The Premier of Gauteng confirming that they have very few cases in hospital there for just Covid and the number in ICU is tiny.

    15 million people live in Gauteng

    Perhaps he is lying.

    https://twitter.com/David_Makhura/status/1471059370192613377?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.

    The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
    Those figures are also with covid not necessarily because of covid, as he said the hospitals are coping fine, and they are at peak.
  • Scott_xP said:

    If vaccines are less effective than expected against Omicron then ministers may impose new restrictions, Chris Whitty suggests
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1471432564367843337

    Fuck off.

    The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
    Be an interesting leadership election with candidates vowing to tell Whitty and co to f off the most.
  • Leon said:

    It’s time we - as PB-ers, as humans, nay, as Britons and Christians and the inheritors of Empire - squared up to the facts and looked Fate in the eye, with a snort of manly contempt, and accepted that everything has changed. We must change with it. Adapt. Be cunning and yet courageous. And that means one thing. No, not ‘let it rip’. No, not ‘lock down everything forever’.

    It’s time for COWARDLY MASS SUICIDE

    That's quite a comedown from whatever it was you were injesting in Ibiza. You should stick to MDMA.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,826
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    STOP FUCKING WHINGEING

    Still on the hallucinogenics?
    No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH

    Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
    Bit early for me. I mean, the sun's only just up. But I've come in from tidying my shed for the winter and am happy to say that I am now going to go back to more tidying and will trouble you no more.
    What is this sun you speak of?
    The uncontrolled hydrogen fusion reactor thingy in the blue sky woth grey bits outside my study window. Maybe it has not got as far north as Dundee yet. Off out now to tidy shed before it goes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Steve Brine, former health minister: "At a stroke the CMO changed government policy and put this country, certainly hospitality, into effective lockdown... advisers are now running the show. I'll bet none of them run businesses facing complete ruin as a result of what was said"
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471435473264549892
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    edited December 2021

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19778640.expert-claims-hadrians-wall-came-existing-anglo-scots-defences/?ref=ar

    Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.

    When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story.
    To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
    Where do you put East Anglia and Cumbria?
  • Scott_xP said:

    More criticism for Whitty from Conservative benches.

    Steve Baker to Treasury minister: "What reassurance can he give me that when officials speak, particularly on podiums at press conferences, that they are staying within the bounds of the policy that ministers have decided?"

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471434988289671174

    Are you suggesting Whitty shouldn't come under scrutiny
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    It really is the voices of science and reason versus the fukwits on the Tory benches.

    What did we do to deserve this...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TimS said:

    Alistair said:

    The Premier of Gauteng confirming that they have very few cases in hospital there for just Covid and the number in ICU is tiny.

    15 million people live in Gauteng

    Perhaps he is lying.

    https://twitter.com/David_Makhura/status/1471059370192613377?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.

    The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
    It's pretty clear now that SA is having a much milder wave this time round than even quite recently with Delta. Enough time has elapsed to be quite confident about this.
    Yes, it seems pretty abundantly clear that Omicron is producing less severe outcomes in SA than previous waves they've had. What is not clear is how "spikey" the wave is. The hope is that it is a flash in the pan measured in scant weeks. But I don't think we can say that yet - SA Covid data is very laggy.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Steve Brine, former health minister: "At a stroke the CMO changed government policy and put this country, certainly hospitality, into effective lockdown... advisers are now running the show. I'll bet none of them run businesses facing complete ruin as a result of what was said"
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471435473264549892

    Astute.

    Why is none of this scrutiny coming from the so-called Opposition?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    The nihilistic project grinds ever downwards...

    Misselling Brexit would inevitably catch up to them for one simple reason: People may find it hard to articulate what Brexit they wanted. But every voter - on either side of the debate - has very firm ideas on what Brexit they did not want.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-boris-johnson-leave-voters-b1976935.html
    LOL. Do people still actually read that third rate political website? If you want to see a good example of how to utterly trash a once great institution on the alter of political dogma then look no further than the Independent.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    DavidL said:

    7 No Balls in Adelaide. What on earth .......

    Does suggest, of course, that before TV umpires missed a lot.

    I do think that the Australians are being overly literal. They chose to bat and then they did. Surely they should appreciate that that choice involves a series of airy wafts outside the off stump and missing the balls heading to the base of leg?
    I got a bet on the draw at the start at 7/1

    Always bound to be a cash out winner as one side gets on top and the third option drifts massively.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    The Premier of Gauteng confirming that they have very few cases in hospital there for just Covid and the number in ICU is tiny.

    15 million people live in Gauteng

    Perhaps he is lying.

    https://twitter.com/David_Makhura/status/1471059370192613377?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.

    The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
    Those figures are also with covid not necessarily because of covid, as he said the hospitals are coping fine, and they are at peak.
    I don't think we can be confident that they are at their peak yet.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Longtime lurker, first time poster. The posts and comments on this site are generally top notch. 👍

    Pls stick around and post. The pizza/best band questionnaires are available online I believe.
  • Scott_xP said:

    If vaccines are less effective than expected against Omicron then ministers may impose new restrictions, Chris Whitty suggests
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1471432564367843337

    Fuck off.

    The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
    You really do talk some utter garbage. Whitty is just stating the bleedin' obvious. We are currently relying on the vaccines to protect us from serious illness and deaths in the coming Omicron wave. The experts are reasonably confident that they will, at least to a very large extent, but if they don't, what are you suggesting - that we should just let hundreds of thousands die because we are fed up with mitigation measures? Obviously in that scenario, we would have to put in place measures to slow the spread whilst we wait for tweaked vaccines.

    The funny thing about this is that those who most go on about the Blitz spirit (not you, to be fair) seem to have the attitude that 'It's 1942, and we've already had months of blackouts and air-raid sirens, it's a bore, let's just give up and live our lives as though there weren't any danger'.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2021
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Gauteng has 3090 people in hospital 'with' Covid.
    86 on Ventilators

    The UK has 7673 in hospital
    896 on ventilators

    It’d be interesting to compare the age pyramid of the two places.
    We know median ages:

    SA: 27.6
    En: 40.2
    W: 42.4
    Sc: 42.1
    NI: 39.2

    And:
    % population over 65:
    SA: 5.5
    E: 18.5
    W: 21.1
    SC: 19.3
    NI: 16.9

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2020
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19778640.expert-claims-hadrians-wall-came-existing-anglo-scots-defences/?ref=ar

    Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.

    When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story.
    To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
    I always understood that location was chosen because the Solway firth made it a narrow bit requiring less wall, as did the later Antonine wall between the Forth and the Clyde. I very much doubt local culture had much or anything to do with it although its very presence may have changed those cultures subsequently.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The Premier of Gauteng confirming that they have very few cases in hospital there for just Covid and the number in ICU is tiny.

    15 million people live in Gauteng

    Perhaps he is lying.

    https://twitter.com/David_Makhura/status/1471059370192613377?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.

    The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
    Those figures are also with covid not necessarily because of covid, as he said the hospitals are coping fine, and they are at peak.
    I don't think we can be confident that they are at their peak yet.
    Gauteng is
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    It's not 'red tape', they are scarlet ribbons of sovereignty.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Scott_xP said:

    It really is the voices of science and reason versus the fukwits on the Tory benches.

    What did we do to deserve this...

    Well the public voted them in so the blame is easy to apportion.
  • Scott_xP said:

    More criticism for Whitty from Conservative benches.

    Steve Baker to Treasury minister: "What reassurance can he give me that when officials speak, particularly on podiums at press conferences, that they are staying within the bounds of the policy that ministers have decided?"

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471434988289671174

    Back to "policy based evidence".....
  • Scott_xP said:

    It really is the voices of science and reason versus the fukwits on the Tory benches.

    What did we do to deserve this...

    Voted foolishly. (By which I mean we collectively crossed the line from "making a choice between realistic options" and "demanding what we want because we voted for it, dammit, and it doesn't matter if it involves voting that 2+2=5".)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    TimS said:

    Alistair said:

    The Premier of Gauteng confirming that they have very few cases in hospital there for just Covid and the number in ICU is tiny.

    15 million people live in Gauteng

    Perhaps he is lying.

    https://twitter.com/David_Makhura/status/1471059370192613377?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.

    The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
    It's pretty clear now that SA is having a much milder wave this time round than even quite recently with Delta. Enough time has elapsed to be quite confident about this.

    IF things are very different in the UK, i.e. Omicron is as bad as Delta - and there seems to be some early London hospitalisation data that implies this - then that must be explained by a difference in our immune preconditioning, because age and demographic differences don't explain why SA now is doing better than the same SA before. Either:

    - Their infection acquired immunity from Delta is more effective than our vaccine induced immunity (this would go against all in vitro and in-vivo studies so far, and doesn't seem to make sense)
    - Their previous Beta wave gave them better immunity against Omicron than we have with our vaccine/Delta exposure (possible? there are some similar mutations)
    - We already had better levels of immunity via vaccines ahead of the Delta wave, whereas they were more exposed to Delta so the comparison has a different starting point (seems quite credible)

    Let's see what the next week or so brings
    Just as a thought experiment - can you imagine the reaction if it turned out that Omicron in SA was mild because of low rates of vaccination, whereas it was severe in the UK due to high levels of vaccination?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    I bet polling is "brisk" in North Shropshire lol! :D
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    O/t but according to the BBC, 'Mercedes have decided not to pursue their appeal against the results of the title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.'

    The report makes it clear they're not happy, but they'll let it go to a longer-term investigation into the rules and practices.
  • Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19778640.expert-claims-hadrians-wall-came-existing-anglo-scots-defences/?ref=ar

    Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.

    When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story.
    To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
    Where do you put East Anglia and Cumbria?
    Cumbria would be a restive province of Northern England. By the time this is implemented East Anglia will be part of the North Sea.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    NEW, the Queen “with regret” has cancelled her pre-Christmas family lunch as a “precautionary” measure, feeling that too many people’s Christmas arrangements were at risk if it went ahead. Royal sources say “there is a belief that it is the right thing to do for all concerned.”
    https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1471437499398606851
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
  • TOPPING said:

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
    Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.

    It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19778640.expert-claims-hadrians-wall-came-existing-anglo-scots-defences/?ref=ar

    Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.

    When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story.
    To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
    Where do you put East Anglia and Cumbria?
    Cumbria would be a restive province of Northern England. By the time this is implemented East Anglia will be part of the North Sea.
    Lay my remains in Doggerland, eh? LOL
  • For which OTHER party could current Conservative voters see themselves voting?

    None: 63%
    Labour: 9%
    Liberal Democrat: 8%
    Reform UK: 7%
    An Independent: 6%
    Green: 6%
    Don't know: 8%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1471435034481635328?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    STOP FUCKING WHINGEING

    Still on the hallucinogenics?
    No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH

    Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
    Do drinks cabinets still exist? Are they next to the radiogram?

    LOL at the wanker in the telegraph complaining about the rigours of his lockdown hotel with NO MINIBAR
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    TOPPING said:

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
    Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.

    It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
    I think Italy are close to pulling the trigger on banning all entry from within the EU as well. Again, it's just theatre as you point out. Omicron is everywhere but governments like to be seen as taking action even if the action is ultimately fruitless, see plan B over here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    🚨 Tory candidate in North Shropshire admits voters have reacted with “upset and anger” to recent stories about parties in Downing Street.

    Neil Shastri-Hurst told me this week there had been “a real mix” of reactions to Boris Johnson on the doorstep.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-shropshire-by-election-christmas-party-scandal-could-affect-result-tory-candidate-admits-s8d5ktgj
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Fascinating graph here:
    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=GB&q=property ladder

    Googling of the term "property ladder" fell away around the global financial crisis and hasn't returned.
    Not sure what conclusions you can derive from that. Perhaps the end of capitalism? ;)

    The GFC was a clear pivot point in capitalism.
    It became clear that it no longer works in a way that supports bourgeois values (thrift, fair play, importance of education etc).
    I'm not sure I'm ready to follow you into such bold conclusions, but it's food for thought.
    Though fair play has never been a part of capitalism, for all its other virtues.
    Best way to view capitalism in my view is as morally neutral. It is not a being with agency do it doesn't have virtues or vices. It is a system of trade and production which can be allowed to do its thing when the outcomes are good for humans (e.g. its ability to balance supply and demand, or encourage labour-saving innovation), but needs to be regulated and controlled when the outcomes would otherwise be bad for humans (e.g. the tendency to monopolies, or environmental pollution).
    That would be a mistake. All economic systems are based on philosophical, moral, or cultural systems of thought. They carry with them the ethics of the beliefs on which they are based. Capitalism is no exception.
    I don't buy that, but largely because I think the cause-effect is the other way round. Our beliefs and cultural systems are shaped by the fact of capitalism. It's not an organised religion, nobody invented it or wrote a book about how it should work. It was facilitated by industrialisation and urbanisation, sure, but now we have industrial manufacturing with us, unless someone un-invents it Capitalism is going to stay with us unless it is specifically "banned" or something new takes its place. Like a Covid variant that has grown to dominate the previous variants.

    Capitalism as the status quo may influence how people see the moral or philosophical world, just as the existence of Covid is affecting everyone's moral world view currently, or the fact Britain is an island has shaped our politics and worldview. But Capitalism is not a being with agency.

  • Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19778640.expert-claims-hadrians-wall-came-existing-anglo-scots-defences/?ref=ar

    Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.

    When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story.
    To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
    Where do you put East Anglia and Cumbria?
    Cumbria would be a restive province of Northern England. By the time this is implemented East Anglia will be part of the North Sea.
    Lay my remains in Doggerland, eh? LOL
    From Doggingland to Doggerland.
  • TOPPING said:

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
    Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.

    It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
    It's just France doing to us what we did to South Africa - punishing a state with advanced and competent testing and sequencing. They sequence less than a tenth of the tests we do, and already have a greater proportion of Omicron.....
  • King Cole, aye, there's the Kingdom of the Rock, but also the Picts that held sway over a huge amount of northern Britain.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    STOP FUCKING WHINGEING

    Still on the hallucinogenics?
    No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH

    Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
    "I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE"

    I don't post much on here, but I do lurk a lot. All I can say to this is my god you come off as an unpleasant person.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Gauteng has 3090 people in hospital 'with' Covid.
    86 on Ventilators

    The UK has 7673 in hospital
    896 on ventilators

    It’d be interesting to compare the age pyramid of the two places.
    We know median ages:

    SA: 27.6
    En: 40.2
    W: 42.4
    Sc: 42.1
    NI: 39.2

    And:
    % population over 65:
    SA: 5.5
    E: 18.5
    W: 21.1
    SC: 19.3
    NI: 16.9

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2020
    These differences will help to explain why SA's overall Covid experience should be different from the UK's, but shouldn't explain why their differential experience of Omicron vs Delta would be different from our differential experience of Omicron vs Delta.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
    They would if we let the unvaccinated by choice die at home.
  • TOPPING said:

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
    Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.

    It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
    It's just France doing to us what we did to South Africa - punishing a state with advanced and competent testing and sequencing. They sequence less than a tenth of the tests we do, and already have a greater proportion of Omicron.....
    I think the original ban on SA was entirely justified at the time, when we didn't yet know how much Omicron we had here and there was a chance we might have been able to delay it taking hold here. But, yes, you are right on the general point.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Just got back from being boosted. AZ/AZ/Pfizer for me. Hope I don't feel too crappy tomorrow I'm on a job interview panel. First AZ dose knocked me off my feet for a day so I'm kind of resigned to it. Perhaps two or three pints of John Smiths in the local this evening are justified on medicinal grounds.

    Sadly, that's probably not the case. However, if the interview panel is in the morning you shouldn't feel too bad.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
    They would if we let the unvaccinated by choice die at home.
    Difficult sell within the NHS. Doctors barely want to charge those ineligible for treatment under the "national" part as it is.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7180985/Doctors-union-votes-stop-charging-overseas-patients-treatment-NHS-hospitals.html
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    It’s a little known fact that Whitty has a degree in Media Studies from Loughborough.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    TOPPING said:

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
    Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.

    It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
    It's just France doing to us what we did to South Africa - punishing a state with advanced and competent testing and sequencing. They sequence less than a tenth of the tests we do, and already have a greater proportion of Omicron.....
    Quelque-chose doit etre fait...isme (or possibly il faut faire quelque-chose-isme)

    I suppose to French eyes SA counts as marginally "Anglo Saxon" (as presumably in the widest sense might India) so Omicron can be yet another Anglo Saxon scourge, along with Alpha, Beta and Delta. No nasty variants from Senegal, Quebec or Polynesia so far.
  • Just got back from being boosted. AZ/AZ/Pfizer for me. Hope I don't feel too crappy tomorrow I'm on a job interview panel. First AZ dose knocked me off my feet for a day so I'm kind of resigned to it. Perhaps two or three pints of John Smiths in the local this evening are justified on medicinal grounds.

    I got the same combination and felt absolutely no effect from the Pfizer jab yesterday. Like you the first AZ was grim. Second has minimal effect. So you might well be totally fine. My lack of reaction may be because I had Covid a month ago though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    If vaccines are less effective than expected against Omicron then ministers may impose new restrictions, Chris Whitty suggests
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1471432564367843337

    Fuck off.

    The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
    You really do talk some utter garbage. Whitty is just stating the bleedin' obvious. We are currently relying on the vaccines to protect us from serious illness and deaths in the coming Omicron wave. The experts are reasonably confident that they will, at least to a very large extent, but if they don't, what are you suggesting - that we should just let hundreds of thousands die because we are fed up with mitigation measures? Obviously in that scenario, we would have to put in place measures to slow the spread whilst we wait for tweaked vaccines.

    The funny thing about this is that those who most go on about the Blitz spirit (not you, to be fair) seem to have the attitude that 'It's 1942, and we've already had months of blackouts and air-raid sirens, it's a bore, let's just give up and live our lives as though there weren't any danger'.
    There is danger, life has danger.

    Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?

    How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?

    Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing? How much is the Treasury damaged? How much is each year of QALY "saved" right now by distancing, isolation and regulations costing us? How does that compare to normal NICE QALY calculations?

    We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.

    Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    TimS said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Gauteng has 3090 people in hospital 'with' Covid.
    86 on Ventilators

    The UK has 7673 in hospital
    896 on ventilators

    It’d be interesting to compare the age pyramid of the two places.
    We know median ages:

    SA: 27.6
    En: 40.2
    W: 42.4
    Sc: 42.1
    NI: 39.2

    And:
    % population over 65:
    SA: 5.5
    E: 18.5
    W: 21.1
    SC: 19.3
    NI: 16.9

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2020
    These differences will help to explain why SA's overall Covid experience should be different from the UK's, but shouldn't explain why their differential experience of Omicron vs Delta would be different from our differential experience of Omicron vs Delta.
    it could, Omicron could be milder amongst younger people.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125

    Scott_xP said:

    If vaccines are less effective than expected against Omicron then ministers may impose new restrictions, Chris Whitty suggests
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1471432564367843337

    Fuck off.

    The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
    You really do talk some utter garbage. Whitty is just stating the bleedin' obvious. We are currently relying on the vaccines to protect us from serious illness and deaths in the coming Omicron wave. The experts are reasonably confident that they will, at least to a very large extent, but if they don't, what are you suggesting - that we should just let hundreds of thousands die because we are fed up with mitigation measures? Obviously in that scenario, we would have to put in place measures to slow the spread whilst we wait for tweaked vaccines.

    The funny thing about this is that those who most go on about the Blitz spirit (not you, to be fair) seem to have the attitude that 'It's 1942, and we've already had months of blackouts and air-raid sirens, it's a bore, let's just give up and live our lives as though there weren't any danger'.
    We know that some people are more concerned than others about catching this virus - so it makes sense for those who are more concerned to cut down contact, and those who are less concerned to carry on their lives.

    The reality is that this virus has become endemic. Everyone is going to catch a dose at some point.

    Accepting the reality is not surrender. That is victory.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Butler's just dropped a regulation catch off Labuschagne!
  • Mr. Sandpit, I must admit I'm amused by those claiming laps led matter.

    One driver has led hundreds more laps this year than the rest...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Anecdotal observation, but in my immediate circles it sounds like omicron is everywhere - and social plans are dropping like flies. Feel incredibly bad for hospitality and small restaurant owners who were banking on Christmas season to make up for the last two years
    https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1471441249311899652
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    edited December 2021

    TOPPING said:

    Still, at least we have this Brexit dividend to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1471431916750610435

    Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
    Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.

    It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
    I don't honestly think that is what it is about; this is mainly Macron's Christmas Panto.

    If they want to keep their people safe they can use the "emergency brake" I think. But Belgium (and Lux) are whingeing in case countries do it.

    Belgium having been infection central for the last couple of months.


  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
    There is some early anecdotal signs from nurses I know in the Hampshire that people are beginning to act in the way they did during Spring/Summer 2020 in avoiding healthcare.

    2 examples, in a GP Surgery in Southampton they had 62 no shows/cancellations for face to face appointments yesterday.

    My wife who works on the treatment centre in Hospital said it was the quietest day they had had yesterday for months due to no-shows.

    People are definitely scared.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Covid getting closer - my sister in law has positive LFT this morning and saw my wife yesterday for several hours, so may be coming our way. Although she (SiL) did have a negative LFT both yesterday morning and shortly before my wife arrived in the early afternoon (she'd been alerted that a pupil on a school bus she was on on Tuesday* had tested positive - she's a TA).

    So I guess we either get lucky or we don't, but we'll be testing a lot over the next ten days and minimising contacts. Presumably we can still expect several days between exposure and positive LFT/symptoms if infected - no different for omicron?

    We're due boosters on Sat, which we presumably still get, assuming no positive tests before then?

    *She's fingering that as the cause, but seems too close in time to me? More likely she's got it earlier from a kid at school, or her own (although they've had no positive LFTs - they're all getting PCR tests today).
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021


    There is danger, life has danger.

    Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?

    How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?

    Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?

    We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.

    Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.

    But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?

    You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
    Yes I am absolutely 100% saying that. Unequivocally and unabashedly.

    No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.

    Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.

    Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
  • The Queen should start listening to ELECTED members of parliament and stop being such a public health socialist...

    NEW, the Queen “with regret” has cancelled her pre-Christmas family lunch as a “precautionary” measure, feeling that too many people’s Christmas arrangements were at risk if it went ahead. Royal sources say “there is a belief that it is the right thing to do for all concerned.”


    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1471440142103728132?s=20
  • Just got back from being boosted. AZ/AZ/Pfizer for me. Hope I don't feel too crappy tomorrow I'm on a job interview panel. First AZ dose knocked me off my feet for a day so I'm kind of resigned to it. Perhaps two or three pints of John Smiths in the local this evening are justified on medicinal grounds.

    I got the same combination and felt absolutely no effect from the Pfizer jab yesterday. Like you the first AZ was grim. Second has minimal effect. So you might well be totally fine. My lack of reaction may be because I had Covid a month ago though.
    Hope you're right. Tomorrow night I'm going to a pre-Xmas meal at my Mum's with her two brothers, who live at opposite ends of the UK, there. It's doubling up as a very late wake for their parents, who both died of Covid this time last year. Might not be the wisest thing to do but my Mum will be heartbroken if we don't get together. I'd hate to have to miss it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    I’ve written my ⁦@IndyVoices⁩ column on the clash between science and politics - and why the remorseless logic of the former could force ⁦@BorisJohnson⁩ to reprise the role of Christmas Grinch once again. Here: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-christmas-omicron-restrictions-b1977248.html
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,915
    edited December 2021
    Mention the other day of The Book Of Heroic Failures reminded me of the entry I always found the funniest when the book lived in the downstairs toilet at my parents' house - The Worst Phrasebook.

    I'm pleased to say I've managed to locate the original text to - O Novo Guia Da Conversação, Em Portuguez E Inglez (The New Guide To Conversation, In Portuguese And English) by Pedro Carolino in 1855. It is, unintentionally, one of the funniest books ever. The writer used a French English dictionary to translate an older Portuguese French phrasebook, the results are far from helpful for a Portuguese traveler in London..

    It was reprinted in London and New York as "English As She Is Spoke" about 30 years after the original. Mark Twain wrote in the foreword to the US edition,

    "Nobody can add to the absurdity of this book, nobody can imitate it successfully, nobody can hope to produce its fellow; it is perfect."

    A few classic examples from the final chapter, entitled "Idiotisms(!!) and Proverbs"

    Por dinheiro baila o perro - for money the dog dances (money makes the world go round)

    Carolino's book gives us - "Nothing some money, nothing of Swiss"

    Deitar perolas a porcos - cast pearls before swine

    Becomes "To make paps for the cats"

    And my favourite..

    Esparar horas e horas - to wait hours and hours

    "To craunch the marmoset"

    Loads more here https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=lUd5AAAAIAAJ
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited December 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
    There is some early anecdotal signs from nurses I know in the Hampshire that people are beginning to act in the way they did during Spring/Summer 2020 in avoiding healthcare.

    2 examples, in a GP Surgery in Southampton they had 62 no shows/cancellations for face to face appointments yesterday.

    My wife who works on the treatment centre in Hospital said it was the quietest day they had had yesterday for months due to no-shows.

    People are definitely scared.
    Well that's the other part, the Gov't need to stress people should really keep their appointments.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

    I suspect that he was looking at stats like this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalcancerdeathsintheukin2019and2020

    There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    He's free to resign if he can't get on board with the policy decisions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Maffew said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    STOP FUCKING WHINGEING

    Still on the hallucinogenics?
    No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH

    Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
    "I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE"

    I don't post much on here, but I do lurk a lot. All I can say to this is my god you come off as an unpleasant person.
    It's a persona. Think Dame Edna.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Folks: We're disappointed authorities didn't make any decision regarding live concerts in the wake of Omicron spread. However it's clear to us @deaconblue should not be playing and people shouldn't be asked to attend gigs just now. We're postponing our last two shows. 1/2
    https://twitter.com/rickyaross/status/1471442732694573060
  • Farooq said:


    There is danger, life has danger.

    Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?

    How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?

    Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?

    We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.

    Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.

    But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?

    You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
    Yes I am absolutely 100% saying that. Unequivocally and unabashedly.

    No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.

    Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.

    Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
    Idiot child.
    The idea that the detriments to education over the last two years is the same as living two years less is risible.
    You're right, two years of lost education that will affect you for the rest of your life is worse than two years less life with dementia and cancer and a frail and decrepit body.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

    I suspect that he was looking at stats like this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalcancerdeathsintheukin2019and2020

    There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
    That's that correlation/causation argument put to bed, then
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    I think he's on a sticky wicket here as it's undeniable that cases of undiagnosed cancer had gone up through the pandemic and that will eventually be seen in the death figures of many of those patients.

    On the other hand you can argue that if the NHS is overwhelmed by Covid people currently being treated will suffer as they will have their treatment curtailed... but I think he is wrong to so blithely dismiss those people whose loved ones have died from late and undiagnosed cancers during the pandemic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Mark Harper, chair of Covid Recovery Group, defends Whitty.

    The Govt "wanted those views out there on the front of every newspaper today", he insists.

    "I don't think it's right to blame advisers", he tells me, adding PM put Whitty on podium & "knew what he was going to say".

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1471444052180668420
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Anecdote:

    One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Anecdotal observation, but in my immediate circles it sounds like omicron is everywhere - and social plans are dropping like flies. Feel incredibly bad for hospitality and small restaurant owners who were banking on Christmas season to make up for the last two years
    https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1471441249311899652

    Sadly this is true. As a result of my daughter testing positive, I've had to drop out of the carol concert I was meant to be singing in tomorrow, and we've cancelled plans to have friends round for drinks and dinner on Saturday, plus plans for going out next week.
    Omicron is everywhere. It's going to be chaos over the next month with millions of people isolating. I really feel for the hospitality sector, and the government should be offering support. Sunak needs to get his arse off the beach in California and set something up pronto.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Scott_xP said:

    Mark Harper, chair of Covid Recovery Group, defends Whitty.

    The Govt "wanted those views out there on the front of every newspaper today", he insists.

    "I don't think it's right to blame advisers", he tells me, adding PM put Whitty on podium & "knew what he was going to say".

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1471444052180668420

    Making a pitch for the leadership.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

    I suspect that he was looking at stats like this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalcancerdeathsintheukin2019and2020

    There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
    That's that correlation/causation argument put to bed, then
    What we have is reasonable assumptions and anecdotes that are not supported by the evidence. Policy should be decided on the evidence.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Boris Johnson denies he was imposing a lockdown by stealth.

    "If you want to go to an event or a party, then the sensible thing to do, if that’s a priority is to get a test.

    "We're not saying that we want to cancel stuff, we’re not locking stuff down"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1471444441194020869
  • I went for a work team social last Thursday and my entire team has tested positive. Desperate to not pass it on to my wife or else Christmas is cancelled!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

    I suspect that he was looking at stats like this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalcancerdeathsintheukin2019and2020

    There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
    The suicide stats need to be interpreted very, very carefully as there is context missing We can probably be reasonably confident that there wasn't a surge of suicides last year but we can't be confident there was a dramatic fall.

    Suicides in the ONS stats are recorded by Date of Inquest not Date of Death. Inquests can take a long time to happen in normal times. The ONS states that baiscally the figures for a given year are actually the stats for the last 6 months fo the previous year (given time for inquests to happen) plus the first 6 months of the year of record. In Covid times they have been delayed much further. So the "fall" in suicides we see in 2020 is mostly coming from delayed inquests, not necessarily fewer suicides.

    Now, there hasn't been a surge of backlogged inquests causing the number of massively spike this year so we can cautiously say that there was indeed an overall fall in suicides during lockdowns in 2020 but without someone doing so serious research on it to construct the "by date of death" data we don't have a clear picture.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I had AZ/AZ/Moderna - the third on Tuesday and I'm still waiting for anything beyond the mildest reactions. Very slight sore arm and a few aches for an hour or so is all I've had so far. Is it safe to leave the house yet? OGH2 assured me I'd be prostrate within 24 hours - maybe the Californian sun is affecting him. :smiley:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

    I suspect that he was looking at stats like this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalcancerdeathsintheukin2019and2020

    There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
    That's that correlation/causation argument put to bed, then
    What we have is reasonable assumptions and anecdotes that are not supported by the evidence. Policy should be decided on the evidence.
    Do you mean that governments have replaced evidence based policy making, with policy-based evidence making?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson denies he was imposing a lockdown by stealth.

    "If you want to go to an event or a party, then the sensible thing to do, if that’s a priority is to get a test.

    "We're not saying that we want to cancel stuff, we’re not locking stuff down"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1471444441194020869

    Tegnell says 'hi'.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:


    There is danger, life has danger.

    Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?

    How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?

    Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?

    We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.

    Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.

    But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?

    You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
    Yes I am absolutely 100% saying that. Unequivocally and unabashedly.

    No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.

    Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.

    Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
    Idiot child.
    The idea that the detriments to education over the last two years is the same as living two years less is risible.
    You're right, two years of lost education that will affect you for the rest of your life is worse than two years less life with dementia and cancer and a frail and decrepit body.
    Idiot child.
    Two years' damaged education is not two years' lost education. Get a grip.
    You're the idiot.

    For primary children especially mingling with other kids and having life experiences is absolutely 100% critical.

    In normal circumstances the courts would fine people who took a few days off school because of the paramount importance of education. But you think screwing people around for two years won't have any damage that could potentially afflict them for their entire lives as a result?

    Post-vaccinations, all for a virus that even pre-vaccines 99% of people survived? You are the one who needs to get a grip.

    All context and sanity has been lost for the sake of "controlling" a virus that 99% of people will live through anyway.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:


    There is danger, life has danger.

    Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?

    How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?

    Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?

    We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.

    Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.

    But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?

    You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
    Yes I am absolutely 100% saying that. Unequivocally and unabashedly.

    No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.

    Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.

    Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
    Idiot child.
    The idea that the detriments to education over the last two years is the same as living two years less is risible.
    You're right, two years of lost education that will affect you for the rest of your life is worse than two years less life with dementia and cancer and a frail and decrepit body.
    Idiot child.
    Two years' damaged education is not two years' lost education. Get a grip.
    There's children who suffered a fuck of a lot worse than an interrupted education.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Whitty ends a punchy evidence session by insisting that every chief medical officer back to the 1850s would tell people to scale back socialising in a pandemic.

    "I don't actually think that any ministers feeling are treading on their toes on this one. This is my job."

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471445340356321282
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    I think that he is losing patience.
    So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?

    Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?

    I suspect that he was looking at stats like this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalcancerdeathsintheukin2019and2020

    There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
    That's that correlation/causation argument put to bed, then
    What we have is reasonable assumptions and anecdotes that are not supported by the evidence. Policy should be decided on the evidence.
    Do you mean that governments have replaced evidence based policy making, with policy-based evidence making?
    Err...no?
This discussion has been closed.