As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.
The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
It's pretty clear now that SA is having a much milder wave this time round than even quite recently with Delta. Enough time has elapsed to be quite confident about this.
IF things are very different in the UK, i.e. Omicron is as bad as Delta - and there seems to be some early London hospitalisation data that implies this - then that must be explained by a difference in our immune preconditioning, because age and demographic differences don't explain why SA now is doing better than the same SA before. Either:
- Their infection acquired immunity from Delta is more effective than our vaccine induced immunity (this would go against all in vitro and in-vivo studies so far, and doesn't seem to make sense) - Their previous Beta wave gave them better immunity against Omicron than we have with our vaccine/Delta exposure (possible? there are some similar mutations) - We already had better levels of immunity via vaccines ahead of the Delta wave, whereas they were more exposed to Delta so the comparison has a different starting point (seems quite credible)
Misselling Brexit would inevitably catch up to them for one simple reason: People may find it hard to articulate what Brexit they wanted. But every voter - on either side of the debate - has very firm ideas on what Brexit they did not want.
Chris Whitty seeming to warn about economic impact of Omicron: “A lot of people will simultaneously fall ill and be unwell, isolating and caring for others at the same time across the whole economy so that side of things I also do think we need to take quite seriously” https://twitter.com/AliFortescue/status/1471434262679371776
There is no evidence they are less effective against Omicron, certainly in terms of hospitalisations which would be the only reason for new restrictions
It’s time we - as PB-ers, as humans, nay, as Britons and Christians and the inheritors of Empire - squared up to the facts and looked Fate in the eye, with a snort of manly contempt, and accepted that everything has changed. We must change with it. Adapt. Be cunning and yet courageous. And that means one thing. No, not ‘let it rip’. No, not ‘lock down everything forever’.
I can't take credit for this, but posting because it tickled me:
'The current advice seems to be to hold parties but don't go to them.'
I once did that. I threw a big party but didn't go to it. I fancied it created a bit of an enigmatic aura around me - not so much who is that man (like with Gatsby) but more where is that man?
More criticism for Whitty from Conservative benches.
Steve Baker to Treasury minister: "What reassurance can he give me that when officials speak, particularly on podiums at press conferences, that they are staying within the bounds of the policy that ministers have decided?" https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471434988289671174
It’s time we - as PB-ers, as humans, nay, as Britons and Christians and the inheritors of Empire - squared up to the facts and looked Fate in the eye, with a snort of manly contempt, and accepted that everything has changed. We must change with it. Adapt. Be cunning and yet courageous. And that means one thing. No, not ‘let it rip’. No, not ‘lock down everything forever’.
Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.
Genetic mapping shows that most Scots and English are identical. Sorry
Nothing to do with that: just that the topography obviously forces a cultural border on that line on the evidence. Despite many unionists claiming it's a modern construct.
All irrelevant to modern politics - especially the genetics - except for debunking various myuths.
Except it doesn't. There is no real difference between the landscape 50 miles north of that line and 50 miles south. The line was chosen by the Romans for much of its length because it sits on an igneous intrusion known as the Whin Sill. Good foundations. But that same intrusion also forms High Force many miles to the south. If you were going to make such claims (not you personally of course) then the obvious choice would be the Firth of Forth. Lowland Scotland south of Edinburgh and Glasgow was no different from Northern England in terms of its occupation styles and the main identifiable cultural difference - the Pictish settlement - is again north of the Firth of Forth.
AIUI the chap argues trhat there are indeed visible cultural differences on the border [not the Wall line]. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.
So, if the Mirror is right the extremely rich Rishi Sunak is in California on business; the state where he met his wife and where he, apparently, owns a home in Santa Monica and has lots of friends there. I'm not sure why this business trip wasn't public knowledge, but it clearly wasn't. Wonder why.
Could be a problem for Sunak. Whatever one's view of Omicron and what should be done, we are in the middle of another Covid crisis and it's clearly going to have major economic implications for lots of businesses. But the man to decide whether to lend support to hospitality businesses (which are going to lose loads of money whether or not more restrictions are put in place) is on a jolly business trip in California. I'll bet Cyclefree is livid.
Sunak has relatives there. Part of his wife's family are Californian.
And Cyclefree is always livid about something, in any case.
I've just got home.
My Daughter's business is taking 40% of the revenue she was taking in November let alone December. She is beyond depressed.
She normally closes for the first 2 weeks of January. Unless support is forthcoming, as other countries faced with this variant have provided, she will not be reopening. There is no point.
A business which survived, was viable, increased its turnover and was profitable will disappear because it simply cannot survive the loss of Xmas business without support. So all the support that was given before will have been for nothing.
Jobs lost. Local suppliers and breweries lose another customer and a village loses a venue. The government loses the tax revenues. What are the chances of the owner finding a buyer or tenant in this sort of environment? And yet the government is proposing to spend £21 million in the area to increase its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Where are people supposed to eat and stay when all the local venues have closed?
She is young. She is entrepreneurial and tough. But she looks utterly beaten and abandoned. It breaks my heart. She will not be the only one who feels like this. She and her generation are this country's future and this government is treating them like shit.
I expect better. At least I used to. Not any more.
More than livid I am utterly contemptuous of people like you who are so dismissive of what is happening to the young. And even more contemptuous of people like Sunak, cosseted by their money, who have no clue at the damage they are doing.
But I will wait and when I have the opportunity I will get my own back at the ballot box. I will not be the only one.
This country has been shafting the young for years. It was similar under Labour - they pulled up many ladders behind them: free education, good pensions, etc. The Millennials et al have been used as a human bank account by the older generations to feather-bed their existence and protect their inheritances.
It is why I have encouraged my kids to use their dual nationality to seek work overseas. The UK was a great country once and being British was something you could take pride in. Nowadays it is a joke with a comedy govt which is mapping the way to becoming a shabby, insular backwater.
Some excellent points - I think you are right about the young being systematically shxfted - the interest rate on the govt student loan scheme is a scandal is an excellent example, meanwhile the wealthy over 60s remain absolutely steadfast in their grip on political power - one of the great political shifts in the 21C has been the systematic hoovering up of the grey vote by the Conservatives in England - its given us BREXIT, a sex-crazed liar as PM, a series of culture wars and an inflated sense of national importance that will culminate in disaster at some point. I do think the Blues will edge it (but will watch with an enthusiasm for a byelection I've not had in years)
That RPI plus 3% on Student Loans is just cruel.
I was talking to my neighbour. She is in her 20's, a teaching assistant, doing a teaching degree at night school. So, about the most sensible and cost effective way of doing a degree. Will leave with 18k of debt. We worked out that it could well be cheaper for her to get a loan from the bank upon graduation then pay it off over 5 years when she gets a teaching job (should be about 3% interest, if the current bank interest rates are sustained), than stay with the student loans company.
Aside from vocational degrees such as the above; University education is for the wealthy only. An extension of private school; but the student loans system enables the poor and naive to be exploited under the guise of 'access'.
Commercial bank offering unsecured personal loan for 3%?
Colour me sceptical.
I've taken out unsecured loans at this rate. Admittedly not recently though.
Another option is mortgage equity withdrawal, that could bring the rate down to sub 2%, dependent on personal circumstances. Or just borrow the money off a wealthy relative and pay it back at 1-2%; win win as the savings rate is hopeless.
What was the politicos rationale for the interest rate being so high? If you get a high flying job and reach six figures in your 20s, you pay it off early. The bigger chunk will presumably never pay it off. But there will be plenty in the middle who do pay it off but take most of their working life to do so.
Was it purely so they could privatise the loan book with as small a discount as possible? Poor form if so.
Well it was all pursued in the interest of sound public finances. Balancing the books. Paying our way in the world. Cutting the deficit. Strong and stable government in the National Interest.
Well yes, but it was all based on the premise that we needed to send 50% of our youth to university. Take that arbitrary target away and it becomes somewhat easier to suppose that do go through university. We could even decide to pay the tuition fees of those doing courses we were looking to encourage (i.e. STEM courses).
The fundamental problem is the decreasing graduate premium (which is, of course, a result of there being too many graduates). It simply makes no sense to spend 4-5 years of a 45 year career training and studying incurring over £100k of debt to earn salaries of less than £50k. As you point out those that do will never repay their student "loans" and will simply pay what is effectively a higher tax rate for most of their careers making the housing ladder more inaccessible and pension provision more challenging. How distant the Tory dream of a property owning democracy seems now.
Mass property ownership was only feasible because decades of social democracy had flattened the income and wealth distribution. Now, decades of Thatcherism have led to an increasing concentration of wealth. In other words, mass home ownership and popular share ownership were only transitory phases. The real Tory dream is the rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate, and that is where we are heading.
Over 2/3 of the UK population still own the property in which theyl ive, either outright or with a mortgage. 100 years ago most of the population rented. The Tory dream is still that the majority own their own homes and many get shares too as that is the most likely way to make them vote Tory eg the Tories did not get 10 consecutive years in power since universal suffrage until the expansion of property ownership and housebuilding under Macmillan and they then extended that after Thatcher endabled more to buy their their own council homes from 1979-1997.
When I met my wife, back in the 50's, her family. father a senior, albeit local, nationalised industry official, lived in a council house. Many of their neighbours were similar middle management types. When I bought our second family home, in the late 60's the bank manager remarked that 'a figure of £14k might, in today's inflationary times, be paid'. That house today is probably worth 3/4 million.
My in-laws old house doesn't look anywhere near as smart and well-kept, nor does the rest of the row and 60 years ago.
I expect the owners are more likely to vote Tory though (and that is a rarity, generally owner occupied ex council houses tend to be well kept)
It's currently a Labour seat although the Tory vote in the constituency has increased over the past few years. Around 20 years ago it swung between Libs/LD's and Labour. Back in the 50's it was Tory, but then their vote collapsed.
Thatcher won lots of seats in the 1980s in working class areas that had always been Labour, even in the 1950s, mainly because of council house sales
No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH
Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
Bit early for me. I mean, the sun's only just up. But I've come in from tidying my shed for the winter and am happy to say that I am now going to go back to more tidying and will trouble you no more.
It’s time we - as PB-ers, as humans, nay, as Britons and Christians and the inheritors of Empire - squared up to the facts and looked Fate in the eye, with a snort of manly contempt, and accepted that everything has changed. We must change with it. Adapt. Be cunning and yet courageous. And that means one thing. No, not ‘let it rip’. No, not ‘lock down everything forever’.
It’s time for COWARDLY MASS SUICIDE
That's quite a comedown from whatever it was you were injesting in Ibiza. You should stick to MDMA.
No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH
Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
Bit early for me. I mean, the sun's only just up. But I've come in from tidying my shed for the winter and am happy to say that I am now going to go back to more tidying and will trouble you no more.
What is this sun you speak of?
The uncontrolled hydrogen fusion reactor thingy in the blue sky woth grey bits outside my study window. Maybe it has not got as far north as Dundee yet. Off out now to tidy shed before it goes.
Steve Brine, former health minister: "At a stroke the CMO changed government policy and put this country, certainly hospitality, into effective lockdown... advisers are now running the show. I'll bet none of them run businesses facing complete ruin as a result of what was said" https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471435473264549892
Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.
When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story. To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
More criticism for Whitty from Conservative benches.
Steve Baker to Treasury minister: "What reassurance can he give me that when officials speak, particularly on podiums at press conferences, that they are staying within the bounds of the policy that ministers have decided?" https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471434988289671174
Are you suggesting Whitty shouldn't come under scrutiny
As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.
The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
It's pretty clear now that SA is having a much milder wave this time round than even quite recently with Delta. Enough time has elapsed to be quite confident about this.
Yes, it seems pretty abundantly clear that Omicron is producing less severe outcomes in SA than previous waves they've had. What is not clear is how "spikey" the wave is. The hope is that it is a flash in the pan measured in scant weeks. But I don't think we can say that yet - SA Covid data is very laggy.
Steve Brine, former health minister: "At a stroke the CMO changed government policy and put this country, certainly hospitality, into effective lockdown... advisers are now running the show. I'll bet none of them run businesses facing complete ruin as a result of what was said" https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471435473264549892
Astute.
Why is none of this scrutiny coming from the so-called Opposition?
Misselling Brexit would inevitably catch up to them for one simple reason: People may find it hard to articulate what Brexit they wanted. But every voter - on either side of the debate - has very firm ideas on what Brexit they did not want.
LOL. Do people still actually read that third rate political website? If you want to see a good example of how to utterly trash a once great institution on the alter of political dogma then look no further than the Independent.
Does suggest, of course, that before TV umpires missed a lot.
I do think that the Australians are being overly literal. They chose to bat and then they did. Surely they should appreciate that that choice involves a series of airy wafts outside the off stump and missing the balls heading to the base of leg?
I got a bet on the draw at the start at 7/1
Always bound to be a cash out winner as one side gets on top and the third option drifts massively.
The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
You really do talk some utter garbage. Whitty is just stating the bleedin' obvious. We are currently relying on the vaccines to protect us from serious illness and deaths in the coming Omicron wave. The experts are reasonably confident that they will, at least to a very large extent, but if they don't, what are you suggesting - that we should just let hundreds of thousands die because we are fed up with mitigation measures? Obviously in that scenario, we would have to put in place measures to slow the spread whilst we wait for tweaked vaccines.
The funny thing about this is that those who most go on about the Blitz spirit (not you, to be fair) seem to have the attitude that 'It's 1942, and we've already had months of blackouts and air-raid sirens, it's a bore, let's just give up and live our lives as though there weren't any danger'.
Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.
When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story. To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
I always understood that location was chosen because the Solway firth made it a narrow bit requiring less wall, as did the later Antonine wall between the Forth and the Clyde. I very much doubt local culture had much or anything to do with it although its very presence may have changed those cultures subsequently.
Googling of the term "property ladder" fell away around the global financial crisis and hasn't returned. Not sure what conclusions you can derive from that. Perhaps the end of capitalism?
The GFC was a clear pivot point in capitalism. It became clear that it no longer works in a way that supports bourgeois values (thrift, fair play, importance of education etc).
I'm not sure I'm ready to follow you into such bold conclusions, but it's food for thought. Though fair play has never been a part of capitalism, for all its other virtues.
Best way to view capitalism in my view is as morally neutral. It is not a being with agency do it doesn't have virtues or vices. It is a system of trade and production which can be allowed to do its thing when the outcomes are good for humans (e.g. its ability to balance supply and demand, or encourage labour-saving innovation), but needs to be regulated and controlled when the outcomes would otherwise be bad for humans (e.g. the tendency to monopolies, or environmental pollution).
That would be a mistake. All economic systems are based on philosophical, moral, or cultural systems of thought. They carry with them the ethics of the beliefs on which they are based. Capitalism is no exception.
More criticism for Whitty from Conservative benches.
Steve Baker to Treasury minister: "What reassurance can he give me that when officials speak, particularly on podiums at press conferences, that they are staying within the bounds of the policy that ministers have decided?" https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471434988289671174
It really is the voices of science and reason versus the fukwits on the Tory benches.
What did we do to deserve this...
Voted foolishly. (By which I mean we collectively crossed the line from "making a choice between realistic options" and "demanding what we want because we voted for it, dammit, and it doesn't matter if it involves voting that 2+2=5".)
No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH
Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
As of yesterday there's 255 ICU patients with Covid in Guateng, of which 86 are ventilated.
The ventilation percentage is far lower than previous waves.
It's pretty clear now that SA is having a much milder wave this time round than even quite recently with Delta. Enough time has elapsed to be quite confident about this.
IF things are very different in the UK, i.e. Omicron is as bad as Delta - and there seems to be some early London hospitalisation data that implies this - then that must be explained by a difference in our immune preconditioning, because age and demographic differences don't explain why SA now is doing better than the same SA before. Either:
- Their infection acquired immunity from Delta is more effective than our vaccine induced immunity (this would go against all in vitro and in-vivo studies so far, and doesn't seem to make sense) - Their previous Beta wave gave them better immunity against Omicron than we have with our vaccine/Delta exposure (possible? there are some similar mutations) - We already had better levels of immunity via vaccines ahead of the Delta wave, whereas they were more exposed to Delta so the comparison has a different starting point (seems quite credible)
Let's see what the next week or so brings
Just as a thought experiment - can you imagine the reaction if it turned out that Omicron in SA was mild because of low rates of vaccination, whereas it was severe in the UK due to high levels of vaccination?
Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.
When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story. To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
Where do you put East Anglia and Cumbria?
Cumbria would be a restive province of Northern England. By the time this is implemented East Anglia will be part of the North Sea.
NEW, the Queen “with regret” has cancelled her pre-Christmas family lunch as a “precautionary” measure, feeling that too many people’s Christmas arrangements were at risk if it went ahead. Royal sources say “there is a belief that it is the right thing to do for all concerned.” https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1471437499398606851
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.
It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.
When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story. To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
Where do you put East Anglia and Cumbria?
Cumbria would be a restive province of Northern England. By the time this is implemented East Anglia will be part of the North Sea.
No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH
Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
Do drinks cabinets still exist? Are they next to the radiogram?
LOL at the wanker in the telegraph complaining about the rigours of his lockdown hotel with NO MINIBAR
Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.
It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
I think Italy are close to pulling the trigger on banning all entry from within the EU as well. Again, it's just theatre as you point out. Omicron is everywhere but governments like to be seen as taking action even if the action is ultimately fruitless, see plan B over here.
Googling of the term "property ladder" fell away around the global financial crisis and hasn't returned. Not sure what conclusions you can derive from that. Perhaps the end of capitalism?
The GFC was a clear pivot point in capitalism. It became clear that it no longer works in a way that supports bourgeois values (thrift, fair play, importance of education etc).
I'm not sure I'm ready to follow you into such bold conclusions, but it's food for thought. Though fair play has never been a part of capitalism, for all its other virtues.
Best way to view capitalism in my view is as morally neutral. It is not a being with agency do it doesn't have virtues or vices. It is a system of trade and production which can be allowed to do its thing when the outcomes are good for humans (e.g. its ability to balance supply and demand, or encourage labour-saving innovation), but needs to be regulated and controlled when the outcomes would otherwise be bad for humans (e.g. the tendency to monopolies, or environmental pollution).
That would be a mistake. All economic systems are based on philosophical, moral, or cultural systems of thought. They carry with them the ethics of the beliefs on which they are based. Capitalism is no exception.
I don't buy that, but largely because I think the cause-effect is the other way round. Our beliefs and cultural systems are shaped by the fact of capitalism. It's not an organised religion, nobody invented it or wrote a book about how it should work. It was facilitated by industrialisation and urbanisation, sure, but now we have industrial manufacturing with us, unless someone un-invents it Capitalism is going to stay with us unless it is specifically "banned" or something new takes its place. Like a Covid variant that has grown to dominate the previous variants.
Capitalism as the status quo may influence how people see the moral or philosophical world, just as the existence of Covid is affecting everyone's moral world view currently, or the fact Britain is an island has shaped our politics and worldview. But Capitalism is not a being with agency.
Interesting report oif work suggesting that the Anglo-Scottish border line is in fact very ancient and pre-Roman (somewhat contra Neil Oliver), and that the Roman wall line followed Roman military dictates rather than the precise cultural boundary. I imagine thanks to the different effects of topography on the natives vs the Romans.
When we studied Hadrian's Wall for Higher Latin, the prevailing view was that the wall wasn't so much a boundary as a means of policing the border region on both sides of the wall. In other words, Roman power projected some way north of the wall, and was far from absolute some way south. That would seem to be in line with this story. To me the interesting question is why Northern and Southern England are so intent on being one country, when they are so culturally distinct. I think there are at least five distinct countries in Great Britain - Scotland, Wales, Northern England, Southern England and Cornwall, plus two independent and culturally distinct City States (London and Liverpool).
Where do you put East Anglia and Cumbria?
Cumbria would be a restive province of Northern England. By the time this is implemented East Anglia will be part of the North Sea.
Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.
It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
It's just France doing to us what we did to South Africa - punishing a state with advanced and competent testing and sequencing. They sequence less than a tenth of the tests we do, and already have a greater proportion of Omicron.....
No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH
Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
"I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE"
I don't post much on here, but I do lurk a lot. All I can say to this is my god you come off as an unpleasant person.
These differences will help to explain why SA's overall Covid experience should be different from the UK's, but shouldn't explain why their differential experience of Omicron vs Delta would be different from our differential experience of Omicron vs Delta.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
They would if we let the unvaccinated by choice die at home.
Just got back from being boosted. AZ/AZ/Pfizer for me. Hope I don't feel too crappy tomorrow I'm on a job interview panel. First AZ dose knocked me off my feet for a day so I'm kind of resigned to it. Perhaps two or three pints of John Smiths in the local this evening are justified on medicinal grounds.
Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.
It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
It's just France doing to us what we did to South Africa - punishing a state with advanced and competent testing and sequencing. They sequence less than a tenth of the tests we do, and already have a greater proportion of Omicron.....
I think the original ban on SA was entirely justified at the time, when we didn't yet know how much Omicron we had here and there was a chance we might have been able to delay it taking hold here. But, yes, you are right on the general point.
Some comments: the vaccination centre (a different one from my first two doses) we well organised (as, to be fair, was my first centre). Always around ten people waiting, and we waited for five minutes. Asked to wait 15 minutes after the vacc, and everybody did. Felt odd being vaccinated to the sound of bowls (it was at an indoor bowls centre). The staff were excellent.
An 18-year old youth came in asking for a booster. He'd not booked, but they let him in. But he had no idea when he'd had his last dose, aside from the fact it was some time ago, and did not know his NHS number. Someone went away to try to find his details. It seemed rather a distraction for the staff, but good on them for trying to accommodate him.
I don't think the centre was even officially doing walk-ins...
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
Just got back from being boosted. AZ/AZ/Pfizer for me. Hope I don't feel too crappy tomorrow I'm on a job interview panel. First AZ dose knocked me off my feet for a day so I'm kind of resigned to it. Perhaps two or three pints of John Smiths in the local this evening are justified on medicinal grounds.
Sadly, that's probably not the case. However, if the interview panel is in the morning you shouldn't feel too bad.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
They would if we let the unvaccinated by choice die at home.
Difficult sell within the NHS. Doctors barely want to charge those ineligible for treatment under the "national" part as it is.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
It’s a little known fact that Whitty has a degree in Media Studies from Loughborough.
Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.
It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
It's just France doing to us what we did to South Africa - punishing a state with advanced and competent testing and sequencing. They sequence less than a tenth of the tests we do, and already have a greater proportion of Omicron.....
Quelque-chose doit etre fait...isme (or possibly il faut faire quelque-chose-isme)
I suppose to French eyes SA counts as marginally "Anglo Saxon" (as presumably in the widest sense might India) so Omicron can be yet another Anglo Saxon scourge, along with Alpha, Beta and Delta. No nasty variants from Senegal, Quebec or Polynesia so far.
Just got back from being boosted. AZ/AZ/Pfizer for me. Hope I don't feel too crappy tomorrow I'm on a job interview panel. First AZ dose knocked me off my feet for a day so I'm kind of resigned to it. Perhaps two or three pints of John Smiths in the local this evening are justified on medicinal grounds.
I got the same combination and felt absolutely no effect from the Pfizer jab yesterday. Like you the first AZ was grim. Second has minimal effect. So you might well be totally fine. My lack of reaction may be because I had Covid a month ago though.
“Prince Charles has unexpectedly presented a knighthood to Max Verstappen after the FIA gave the Dutch F1 driver permission to burst into the ceremony at Windsor Castle to snatch the honour from Lewis Hamilton at the last minute.
“As Prince Charles explained, “It was utterly appalling. Just before it happened, I was telling Lewis Hamilton not to feel bad about losing the Grand Prix on the last lap, because sometimes when someone’s been sitting in the number one spot for a very, very, long time, it’s only fair that they make way for another monarch, I mean driver, to have their turn at the top.””
The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
You really do talk some utter garbage. Whitty is just stating the bleedin' obvious. We are currently relying on the vaccines to protect us from serious illness and deaths in the coming Omicron wave. The experts are reasonably confident that they will, at least to a very large extent, but if they don't, what are you suggesting - that we should just let hundreds of thousands die because we are fed up with mitigation measures? Obviously in that scenario, we would have to put in place measures to slow the spread whilst we wait for tweaked vaccines.
The funny thing about this is that those who most go on about the Blitz spirit (not you, to be fair) seem to have the attitude that 'It's 1942, and we've already had months of blackouts and air-raid sirens, it's a bore, let's just give up and live our lives as though there weren't any danger'.
There is danger, life has danger.
Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?
How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?
Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing? How much is the Treasury damaged? How much is each year of QALY "saved" right now by distancing, isolation and regulations costing us? How does that compare to normal NICE QALY calculations?
We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.
These differences will help to explain why SA's overall Covid experience should be different from the UK's, but shouldn't explain why their differential experience of Omicron vs Delta would be different from our differential experience of Omicron vs Delta.
it could, Omicron could be milder amongst younger people.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
You really do talk some utter garbage. Whitty is just stating the bleedin' obvious. We are currently relying on the vaccines to protect us from serious illness and deaths in the coming Omicron wave. The experts are reasonably confident that they will, at least to a very large extent, but if they don't, what are you suggesting - that we should just let hundreds of thousands die because we are fed up with mitigation measures? Obviously in that scenario, we would have to put in place measures to slow the spread whilst we wait for tweaked vaccines.
The funny thing about this is that those who most go on about the Blitz spirit (not you, to be fair) seem to have the attitude that 'It's 1942, and we've already had months of blackouts and air-raid sirens, it's a bore, let's just give up and live our lives as though there weren't any danger'.
We know that some people are more concerned than others about catching this virus - so it makes sense for those who are more concerned to cut down contact, and those who are less concerned to carry on their lives.
The reality is that this virus has become endemic. Everyone is going to catch a dose at some point.
Accepting the reality is not surrender. That is victory.
Googling of the term "property ladder" fell away around the global financial crisis and hasn't returned. Not sure what conclusions you can derive from that. Perhaps the end of capitalism?
The GFC was a clear pivot point in capitalism. It became clear that it no longer works in a way that supports bourgeois values (thrift, fair play, importance of education etc).
I'm not sure I'm ready to follow you into such bold conclusions, but it's food for thought. Though fair play has never been a part of capitalism, for all its other virtues.
Best way to view capitalism in my view is as morally neutral. It is not a being with agency do it doesn't have virtues or vices. It is a system of trade and production which can be allowed to do its thing when the outcomes are good for humans (e.g. its ability to balance supply and demand, or encourage labour-saving innovation), but needs to be regulated and controlled when the outcomes would otherwise be bad for humans (e.g. the tendency to monopolies, or environmental pollution).
That would be a mistake. All economic systems are based on philosophical, moral, or cultural systems of thought. They carry with them the ethics of the beliefs on which they are based. Capitalism is no exception.
I don't buy that, but largely because I think the cause-effect is the other way round. Our beliefs and cultural systems are shaped by the fact of capitalism. It's not an organised religion, nobody invented it or wrote a book about how it should work. It was facilitated by industrialisation and urbanisation, sure, but now we have industrial manufacturing with us, unless someone un-invents it Capitalism is going to stay with us unless it is specifically "banned" or something new takes its place. Like a Covid variant that has grown to dominate the previous variants.
Capitalism as the status quo may influence how people see the moral or philosophical world, just as the existence of Covid is affecting everyone's moral world view currently, or the fact Britain is an island has shaped our politics and worldview. But Capitalism is not a being with agency.
You're quite right to point out that capitalism has a directive influence on culture, as well as a reflective one. But the fact that it wasn't "invented" doesn't mean its nature is inevitable. Feudalism also sprang up naturally, and it died naturally too. It wasn't uninvented, it just ceased to be stable and useful. Economic systems are, yes, without agency but they do have agents. Adherents that will defend the principles and argue for policies that defend and reflect those principles. We only have capitalism so long as there are people willing and able to maintain its structures and its philosophies.
Anecdotal observation, but in my immediate circles it sounds like omicron is everywhere - and social plans are dropping like flies. Feel incredibly bad for hospitality and small restaurant owners who were banking on Christmas season to make up for the last two years https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1471441249311899652
Out of interest could France make the same travel ruling as it has against the UK against another EU country.
Legally, they possibly could (I believe there are provisions for EU states to suspend normal rules if there's an urgent and well-founded health risk), but in practice it would be politically very difficult.
It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
I don't honestly think that is what it is about; this is mainly Macron's Christmas Panto.
If they want to keep their people safe they can use the "emergency brake" I think. But Belgium (and Lux) are whingeing in case countries do it.
Belgium having been infection central for the last couple of months.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
There is some early anecdotal signs from nurses I know in the Hampshire that people are beginning to act in the way they did during Spring/Summer 2020 in avoiding healthcare.
2 examples, in a GP Surgery in Southampton they had 62 no shows/cancellations for face to face appointments yesterday.
My wife who works on the treatment centre in Hospital said it was the quietest day they had had yesterday for months due to no-shows.
Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?
How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?
Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?
We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.
Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.
But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?
You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
Covid getting closer - my sister in law has positive LFT this morning and saw my wife yesterday for several hours, so may be coming our way. Although she (SiL) did have a negative LFT both yesterday morning and shortly before my wife arrived in the early afternoon (she'd been alerted that a pupil on a school bus she was on on Tuesday* had tested positive - she's a TA).
So I guess we either get lucky or we don't, but we'll be testing a lot over the next ten days and minimising contacts. Presumably we can still expect several days between exposure and positive LFT/symptoms if infected - no different for omicron?
We're due boosters on Sat, which we presumably still get, assuming no positive tests before then?
*She's fingering that as the cause, but seems too close in time to me? More likely she's got it earlier from a kid at school, or her own (although they've had no positive LFTs - they're all getting PCR tests today).
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
I think that he is losing patience.
So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?
Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?
Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?
How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?
Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?
We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.
Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.
But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?
You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
Yes I am absolutely 100% saying that. Unequivocally and unabashedly.
No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.
Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.
Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
The Queen should start listening to ELECTED members of parliament and stop being such a public health socialist...
NEW, the Queen “with regret” has cancelled her pre-Christmas family lunch as a “precautionary” measure, feeling that too many people’s Christmas arrangements were at risk if it went ahead. Royal sources say “there is a belief that it is the right thing to do for all concerned.”
Just got back from being boosted. AZ/AZ/Pfizer for me. Hope I don't feel too crappy tomorrow I'm on a job interview panel. First AZ dose knocked me off my feet for a day so I'm kind of resigned to it. Perhaps two or three pints of John Smiths in the local this evening are justified on medicinal grounds.
I got the same combination and felt absolutely no effect from the Pfizer jab yesterday. Like you the first AZ was grim. Second has minimal effect. So you might well be totally fine. My lack of reaction may be because I had Covid a month ago though.
Hope you're right. Tomorrow night I'm going to a pre-Xmas meal at my Mum's with her two brothers, who live at opposite ends of the UK, there. It's doubling up as a very late wake for their parents, who both died of Covid this time last year. Might not be the wisest thing to do but my Mum will be heartbroken if we don't get together. I'd hate to have to miss it.
Mention the other day of The Book Of Heroic Failures reminded me of the entry I always found the funniest when the book lived in the downstairs toilet at my parents' house - The Worst Phrasebook.
I'm pleased to say I've managed to locate the original text to - O Novo Guia Da Conversação, Em Portuguez E Inglez (The New Guide To Conversation, In Portuguese And English) by Pedro Carolino in 1855. It is, unintentionally, one of the funniest books ever. The writer used a French English dictionary to translate an older Portuguese French phrasebook, the results are far from helpful for a Portuguese traveler in London..
It was reprinted in London and New York as "English As She Is Spoke" about 30 years after the original. Mark Twain wrote in the foreword to the US edition,
"Nobody can add to the absurdity of this book, nobody can imitate it successfully, nobody can hope to produce its fellow; it is perfect."
A few classic examples from the final chapter, entitled "Idiotisms(!!) and Proverbs"
Por dinheiro baila o perro - for money the dog dances (money makes the world go round)
Carolino's book gives us - "Nothing some money, nothing of Swiss"
Deitar perolas a porcos - cast pearls before swine
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Yes, cancer patients may not get timely treatment if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. It's one of the better arguments for restrictions and so forth.
There is some early anecdotal signs from nurses I know in the Hampshire that people are beginning to act in the way they did during Spring/Summer 2020 in avoiding healthcare.
2 examples, in a GP Surgery in Southampton they had 62 no shows/cancellations for face to face appointments yesterday.
My wife who works on the treatment centre in Hospital said it was the quietest day they had had yesterday for months due to no-shows.
People are definitely scared.
Well that's the other part, the Gov't need to stress people should really keep their appointments.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
I think that he is losing patience.
So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?
Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?
There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
I think that he is losing patience.
He's free to resign if he can't get on board with the policy decisions.
No. I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE Oh property ladder this Oh my pension that Oh my hamster’s got AIDS in his perineum and I am Scottish WHAT CAN I DO WHY WON’T THE GOVERNMENT HELP BLAH BLAH BLAH
Enough. Get up off your pimply bottoms, go to the drinks cabinet, pour yourself a stiff one, sit down, sip your drink, then get up again, go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself a second, and then finally sit down and think about everything and get it all in perspective and then stand up again and go to the drinks cabinet and pour yourself the entire bottle
"I’ve just had enough. I’m sitting in the sunlit garden next to my Antony Gormley statue in this billionaire’s garden in the Balearics, sipping an early cocktail, and then I come on here and it’s WHINGE WHINGE WHINGE"
I don't post much on here, but I do lurk a lot. All I can say to this is my god you come off as an unpleasant person.
Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?
How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?
Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?
We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.
Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.
But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?
You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
Yes I am absolutely 100% saying that. Unequivocally and unabashedly.
No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.
Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.
Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
Idiot child. The idea that the detriments to education over the last two years is the same as living two years less is risible.
Folks: We're disappointed authorities didn't make any decision regarding live concerts in the wake of Omicron spread. However it's clear to us @deaconblue should not be playing and people shouldn't be asked to attend gigs just now. We're postponing our last two shows. 1/2 https://twitter.com/rickyaross/status/1471442732694573060
Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?
How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?
Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing?
We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.
Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.
But you are saying that as an absolute, which is barmy. Suppose it were to turn out that Omicron has a nasty kick to it, not yet evident because it only shows up a few weeks after infection, which has the effect of making it very dangerous to children. Are you seriously suggesting that, as an absolute thing, irrespective of the avoidable death of thousands of children, we should just 'Let die whoever dies'?
You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
Yes I am absolutely 100% saying that. Unequivocally and unabashedly.
No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.
Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.
Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
Idiot child. The idea that the detriments to education over the last two years is the same as living two years less is risible.
You're right, two years of lost education that will affect you for the rest of your life is worse than two years less life with dementia and cancer and a frail and decrepit body.
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
I think that he is losing patience.
So - why are there documented cases of people who missed early cancer diagnosis who have died who probably shouldn't have?
Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?
There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
That's that correlation/causation argument put to bed, then
Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1
I think he's on a sticky wicket here as it's undeniable that cases of undiagnosed cancer had gone up through the pandemic and that will eventually be seen in the death figures of many of those patients.
On the other hand you can argue that if the NHS is overwhelmed by Covid people currently being treated will suffer as they will have their treatment curtailed... but I think he is wrong to so blithely dismiss those people whose loved ones have died from late and undiagnosed cancers during the pandemic.
Comments
IF things are very different in the UK, i.e. Omicron is as bad as Delta - and there seems to be some early London hospitalisation data that implies this - then that must be explained by a difference in our immune preconditioning, because age and demographic differences don't explain why SA now is doing better than the same SA before. Either:
- Their infection acquired immunity from Delta is more effective than our vaccine induced immunity (this would go against all in vitro and in-vivo studies so far, and doesn't seem to make sense)
- Their previous Beta wave gave them better immunity against Omicron than we have with our vaccine/Delta exposure (possible? there are some similar mutations)
- We already had better levels of immunity via vaccines ahead of the Delta wave, whereas they were more exposed to Delta so the comparison has a different starting point (seems quite credible)
Let's see what the next week or so brings
The backbenchers need to oust Boris and a new PM needs to tell Whitty to fuck off if this is the attitude.
Misselling Brexit would inevitably catch up to them for one simple reason: People may find it hard to articulate what Brexit they wanted. But every voter - on either side of the debate - has very firm ideas on what Brexit they did not want.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-boris-johnson-leave-voters-b1976935.html
https://twitter.com/AliFortescue/status/1471434262679371776
It’s time for COWARDLY MASS SUICIDE
Steve Baker to Treasury minister: "What reassurance can he give me that when officials speak, particularly on podiums at press conferences, that they are staying within the bounds of the policy that ministers have decided?"
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471434988289671174
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1471435473264549892
What did we do to deserve this...
Why is none of this scrutiny coming from the so-called Opposition?
Always bound to be a cash out winner as one side gets on top and the third option drifts massively.
The funny thing about this is that those who most go on about the Blitz spirit (not you, to be fair) seem to have the attitude that 'It's 1942, and we've already had months of blackouts and air-raid sirens, it's a bore, let's just give up and live our lives as though there weren't any danger'.
SA: 27.6
En: 40.2
W: 42.4
Sc: 42.1
NI: 39.2
And:
% population over 65:
SA: 5.5
E: 18.5
W: 21.1
SC: 19.3
NI: 16.9
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2020
The report makes it clear they're not happy, but they'll let it go to a longer-term investigation into the rules and practices.
https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1471437499398606851
It does seem a pretty barmy measure by France, given the prevalence of Omicron in the EU.
None: 63%
Labour: 9%
Liberal Democrat: 8%
Reform UK: 7%
An Independent: 6%
Green: 6%
Don't know: 8%
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1471435034481635328?s=20
LOL at the wanker in the telegraph complaining about the rigours of his lockdown hotel with NO MINIBAR
Neil Shastri-Hurst told me this week there had been “a real mix” of reactions to Boris Johnson on the doorstep.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-shropshire-by-election-christmas-party-scandal-could-affect-result-tory-candidate-admits-s8d5ktgj
Capitalism as the status quo may influence how people see the moral or philosophical world, just as the existence of Covid is affecting everyone's moral world view currently, or the fact Britain is an island has shaped our politics and worldview. But Capitalism is not a being with agency.
I don't post much on here, but I do lurk a lot. All I can say to this is my god you come off as an unpleasant person.
Some comments: the vaccination centre (a different one from my first two doses) we well organised (as, to be fair, was my first centre). Always around ten people waiting, and we waited for five minutes. Asked to wait 15 minutes after the vacc, and everybody did. Felt odd being vaccinated to the sound of bowls (it was at an indoor bowls centre). The staff were excellent.
An 18-year old youth came in asking for a booster. He'd not booked, but they let him in. But he had no idea when he'd had his last dose, aside from the fact it was some time ago, and did not know his NHS number. Someone went away to try to find his details. It seemed rather a distraction for the staff, but good on them for trying to accommodate him.
I don't think the centre was even officially doing walk-ins...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7180985/Doctors-union-votes-stop-charging-overseas-patients-treatment-NHS-hospitals.html
I suppose to French eyes SA counts as marginally "Anglo Saxon" (as presumably in the widest sense might India) so Omicron can be yet another Anglo Saxon scourge, along with Alpha, Beta and Delta. No nasty variants from Senegal, Quebec or Polynesia so far.
https://newsthump.com/2021/12/16/fia-awards-lewis-hamiltons-knighthood-to-max-verstappen/
“Prince Charles has unexpectedly presented a knighthood to Max Verstappen after the FIA gave the Dutch F1 driver permission to burst into the ceremony at Windsor Castle to snatch the honour from Lewis Hamilton at the last minute.
“As Prince Charles explained, “It was utterly appalling. Just before it happened, I was telling Lewis Hamilton not to feel bad about losing the Grand Prix on the last lap, because sometimes when someone’s been sitting in the number one spot for a very, very, long time, it’s only fair that they make way for another monarch, I mean driver, to have their turn at the top.””
Lets spin the question on its head. Lets say this wave is allowed to rip through the population. What is the realistic worst case scenario? Don't just say "the NHS might collapse", how many excess deaths are we talking about caused by the NHS collapsing? A thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Two million?
How much QALY are we talking about? Lets quantify it. How does that compare to natural deaths that would occur anyway?
Then lockdown restrictions and screwing over the livelihoods of people like Miss Cyclefree Jr and millions more like her. How much damage is that? How much pain and suffering is that causing? How much is the Treasury damaged? How much is each year of QALY "saved" right now by distancing, isolation and regulations costing us? How does that compare to normal NICE QALY calculations?
We've triply-vaccinated the vulnerable already. Either the vaccines work, or they don't. Hundreds of thousands die every single year anyway. Since the virus started close to a million have died from natural causes, the last years of which have been messed around with by lockdown. Those final years are never going to be brought back, the education disrupted, the businesses disrupted, none of that is coming back either.
Let die whoever dies. Let live whoever lives.
The reality is that this virus has become endemic. Everyone is going to catch a dose at some point.
Accepting the reality is not surrender. That is victory.
Economic systems are, yes, without agency but they do have agents. Adherents that will defend the principles and argue for policies that defend and reflect those principles. We only have capitalism so long as there are people willing and able to maintain its structures and its philosophies.
One driver has led hundreds more laps this year than the rest...
https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1471441249311899652
If they want to keep their people safe they can use the "emergency brake" I think. But Belgium (and Lux) are whingeing in case countries do it.
Belgium having been infection central for the last couple of months.
2 examples, in a GP Surgery in Southampton they had 62 no shows/cancellations for face to face appointments yesterday.
My wife who works on the treatment centre in Hospital said it was the quietest day they had had yesterday for months due to no-shows.
People are definitely scared.
You are just being bonkers. No sane person can be absolute about this, it all depends on the degree of danger.
So I guess we either get lucky or we don't, but we'll be testing a lot over the next ten days and minimising contacts. Presumably we can still expect several days between exposure and positive LFT/symptoms if infected - no different for omicron?
We're due boosters on Sat, which we presumably still get, assuming no positive tests before then?
*She's fingering that as the cause, but seems too close in time to me? More likely she's got it earlier from a kid at school, or her own (although they've had no positive LFTs - they're all getting PCR tests today).
Unless he is arguing some technical point that it wasn't the actual lockdown it was people's reluctance to come forward even though the GP was available and so was the hospital?
No matter the danger. People die, get over it already. We fucked over 3 academic years of education. We have destroyed two years of business. For 67 million people we've had two years of damage.
Even if you believe the badly-calculated claim that the average 'death' had 10 years life expectancy left (I don't) two years lost for 67 million people is 134 million years of damage. We'd have had to have 13 million excess deaths to make up for that and its nowhere close to that.
Pre-vaccinations restrictions were borderline justifiable to me, but if I'd known they'd have dragged on for two years I'd have said they were not justifiable at all. Post-vaccinations it is madness. The damage of restrictions is worse than a fraction of 1% of people dying.
NEW, the Queen “with regret” has cancelled her pre-Christmas family lunch as a “precautionary” measure, feeling that too many people’s Christmas arrangements were at risk if it went ahead. Royal sources say “there is a belief that it is the right thing to do for all concerned.”
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1471440142103728132?s=20
I'm pleased to say I've managed to locate the original text to - O Novo Guia Da Conversação, Em Portuguez E Inglez (The New Guide To Conversation, In Portuguese And English) by Pedro Carolino in 1855. It is, unintentionally, one of the funniest books ever. The writer used a French English dictionary to translate an older Portuguese French phrasebook, the results are far from helpful for a Portuguese traveler in London..
It was reprinted in London and New York as "English As She Is Spoke" about 30 years after the original. Mark Twain wrote in the foreword to the US edition,
"Nobody can add to the absurdity of this book, nobody can imitate it successfully, nobody can hope to produce its fellow; it is perfect."
A few classic examples from the final chapter, entitled "Idiotisms(!!) and Proverbs"
Por dinheiro baila o perro - for money the dog dances (money makes the world go round)
Carolino's book gives us - "Nothing some money, nothing of Swiss"
Deitar perolas a porcos - cast pearls before swine
Becomes "To make paps for the cats"
And my favourite..
Esparar horas e horas - to wait hours and hours
"To craunch the marmoset"
Loads more here https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=lUd5AAAAIAAJ
There is no evidence at all that more people are dying of cancer yet. Its a bit like the statistics we were discussing yesterday that showed that all of the isolation and depression of lockdown seems to have reduced suicides, not increased them.
The idea that the detriments to education over the last two years is the same as living two years less is risible.
https://twitter.com/rickyaross/status/1471442732694573060
On the other hand you can argue that if the NHS is overwhelmed by Covid people currently being treated will suffer as they will have their treatment curtailed... but I think he is wrong to so blithely dismiss those people whose loved ones have died from late and undiagnosed cancers during the pandemic.
The Govt "wanted those views out there on the front of every newspaper today", he insists.
"I don't think it's right to blame advisers", he tells me, adding PM put Whitty on podium & "knew what he was going to say".
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1471444052180668420
One of our London offices held a staff Christmas party on Friday. Looks like it was a super spreader event.