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A big day for the LDs and the PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    How is the government performing against your expectations? Overall 43% worse vs 11% better - among Conservatives 22% better vs 26% worse https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1471471645596520455/photo/1
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    Anecdote alert:

    I spoke to a few old boys in the east end yesterday about Boris. They think he's a rascal who pushes his luck and would've been given a good hiding in their day. However he's OUR rascal and preferable to the dodgy pinko alternatives.

    Sorry but lightening the mood and all that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    edited December 2021
    I think a far more likely explanation for the 3-5 million is combination of vaccine hesitancy plus they already had (or think they have had) covid, so they come to the conclusion i don't need to be getting one of these "risky" jabs i keep reading about in my whatsapp groups.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Very strong rebuke from Chris Whitty to people who say Covid lockdowns have somehow set back cancer or other care - common trope in right-wing press. Whitty says they have "no understanding of health", and that the claim is a "complete inversion of reality". https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1471437931118219264/photo/1

    Did Whitty really say common trope in right wing press ?
    Sorry but Whitty is talking bollocks. The official figures from the NHS show that waiting times for cancer diagnosis and treatment have increased massively, as have treatments for just about everything else - a lot of it due to people being unable to see their GPs during lockdowns.

    I have a lot of time for Whitty generally but on this he is clearly losing the plot.
    Because of the pandemic. Not because of lockdowns.
    Lockdowns -> less COVID pressure -> more NHS capacity -> more ability to treat cancer/other care.
    Wrong. Social distancing -> Less NHS capacity -> Less ability to treat cancer/other care.

    Had there been no lockdown, there'd have been less capacity reductions, more deaths, and the NHS would now be running at full capacity and with less demand as there's zero demand from the dead.
    Go back and reread your posts from when Boris introduced the lockdowns, if I remember rightly you understood then that the purpose was to protect NHS capacity & save lives.
    That was indeed the purpose and of course it is legitimate to say that it probably did given death rates would have been far higher without the lockdowns. But to do as Whitty did this morning and claim there have been no adverse effects from lockdown on cancer rates just doesn't fit the facts.

    Edit. I got caught by a phone call and posted before I had finished.

    Moreover I would suggest it is entirely possible that as Philip suggests we may come out the other side of this and find that the 'cure' including lockdown has killed more people than the virus itself.
    You're mixing up pandemic & lockdown. The pandemic has harmed cancer service provision. The lockdown has helped cancer service provision. I really can't think of more ways to say this.
    And I believe you are wrong. Part of lockdown was preventing people seeing their doctors face to face. Most of us know this from direct experience. It is that bit which is the primary cause of this failure.

    And that is before you add in all those situations where people, particularly pensioners and middle aged men won't go to a doctor until they are badgered into it by friends and family. Not happening when they see no-one for weeks or months on end because of lockdown.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    kamski said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    I think unvaccinated people "on the wards" aren't going to be typical, not only because being hospitalised might make you change your mind a bit, but also because you might not want to piss off people responsible for maybe saving your life.

    I personally know quite a few unvaccinated people. Some are not "anti-vaxxers" - but are worried about side-effects and/or they are willing to take their chances with "natural" infection. Some are proper anti-vaxxers including some who believe bizarre things that to me seem so obviously completely implausible, and some who have been "radicalised" - they start by saying they want the right to refuse a medical treatment, and end up sharing seriously far-right memes. Actually quite scary.

    There aren't many left who "haven't got round to it".
    Yep, frankly rather silly of Whitty to say this - only the most ardant anti-vaxxer is going to try and start an argument about it whilst sat in hospital with covid.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    This is why vaccine passports will probably increase uptake to a degree. Suddenly not being able to do stuff means people will get round to it
    How many 70 year olds who 'haven't gotten around to it' will do so in order to be able to get into Ministry of Sound?
    They might want a day out with the grandkids at the football.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Vaccine bounce over: 49% say Govt handling @coronavirus badly vs 34% well (imho nothing changes until 60% negative) https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1471471906700283906/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    The Conservative MP for Bolton West @CGreenUK is calling for the £20 uplift to #UniversalCredit to be reinstated "immediately" - to help people cope with the impact of the #OmicronVariant on businesses, a cost of living crisis, and any future lockdowns:

    @GranadaReports https://twitter.com/LiseMcNally/status/1471472087361593347/video/1
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    MaxPB said:

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.

    I have absolutely no sympathy left for any anti-vaxxer/skeptic/hesitant person or just plain lazy people. There has been ample opportunity for such people to get jabbed, they have left it too late now, and they are quite likely to get infected over the next month or so. It's their choice, and they had better cross their fingers that they don't get whacked by covid. The only people I'm sympathetic towards are those that have been jabbed and those that can't get a jab for genuine reasons.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited December 2021
    kamski said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    I think unvaccinated people "on the wards" aren't going to be typical, not only because being hospitalised might make you change your mind a bit, but also because you might not want to piss off people responsible for maybe saving your life.

    I personally know quite a few unvaccinated people. Some are not "anti-vaxxers" - but are worried about side-effects and/or they are willing to take their chances with "natural" infection. Some are proper anti-vaxxers including some who believe bizarre things that to me seem so obviously completely implausible, and some who have been "radicalised" - they start by saying they want the right to refuse a medical treatment, and end up sharing seriously far-right memes. Actually quite scary.

    There aren't many left who "haven't got round to it".
    There are also the conspiracy theories among various groups. Having actually seen them - many are so grotesque and racist that I couldn't publish them here...

    EDIT- on the "haven't got round to it" - the phenomenon of people so disconnected from what is going on that it almost defies possibility is well documented. Another issue is how insanely disorganised some people are.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    I see that the dodgy tweet alleged (or assumed) to have been made by Nadine Dorries turns out to have been made by someone else.

    :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    Three anecdotes from the outside world:
    1) Took the car for an MOT on Tuesday. As requested by the sign on the door, put my mask on as I went into the garage office when I went to pick it up. 'No need for that' the proprietor cheerfully assured me. 'You're the only one all day who's bothered'. He was cheerfully belligerent in his opposition to any more covid measures 'or this place won't be running any longer'. He'd had his booster jab because his dad had told him he had to or he wouldn't be coming for Christmas dinner.

    2) Conversation with a friend of mine at school drop-off yesterday. He embodies the red wall. Historically labour from a working class family, he's been less and less enamoured of them over the last ten years and was repelled by Corbyn. Thinks Starmer is a berk. But his view on the current shenanigans was as follows (read this in a broad, incredulous, Mancunian accent): "do you not think they've gone absolutely way over the top to this latest one? Is he [Boris] just trying to get sacked? He's just doing f*ck-up after f*ck-up."

    3) My youngest's infant school did her nativity play yesterday. I cannot conceive of anyone who could care more about the edcuation, welfare, wellbeing and happiness of the children in his care than the headmaster of this school. It is really, really important to him that normality continues for the children in that school. Anyway, I was really pleased it went ahead: it is my tenth, and last, nativity play as a parent - they don't do it in the junior's. And it was brilliant. And my youngest - who is a complicated little character: neither the competent, reliable demeanour of my oldest or the confident, outgoing character of my middle daughter - had one line, and was barely audible, and fidgeted throughout, but despite her nerves she did it, and she sang the songs and followed the cues, and I was prouder of her than I ever was of either of the older two's objectively much better performances.
    So anyway, well done to the school for going ahead regardless. Parents had to be masked (much to the apologies of the head, who reported it as a condition from DfE and TRafford public health for these to go ahead) but a small price to pay for such a momentous event.
    But I reported my joy at this to colleagues later in the day, and there was quite a lot of surprise and some disapproval that the event had been allowed to take place. It's a public sector organisation, with quite a lot of keenness for lockdown, and I didn't getthe impression that hostility was aimed at me personally - but there was more than a bit of the hint that the school were being selfish and/or self-indulgent in going ahead with a nativity play. Which I think is a shame.

    On the MOT garage. God bless the small businesses, the bedrock of Britain.
    Garages are just licenses to print money.
    Still amazed the same business can do test and repairs. I pay for a service just as insurance against them screwing me.
    I suspect the MOT is a loss leader.
    My garage does the MOT slightly cheaper if paid for in cash.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    This is why vaccine passports will probably increase uptake to a degree. Suddenly not being able to do stuff means people will get round to it
    I'm not sure that they will, they've had them in France and the French still have around a million over 60s with no vaccines. Cajoling them by excluding them from a cocktail bar or nightclub doesn't seem like it will do the trick, at least IMO, and in France it didn't.

    The best way forwards is a really wide reaching public information and education campaign. We should have been preparing the ground for this as soon as the pandemic started. (Re)Building trust in vaccines, in scientific process, knocking down antivax sentiment online and on social media, ensured that everyone felt included in the process. That's what they did in Portugal and they've got 89% by population with at least one dose vs the UK at just over 76% and France at 80%. Public awareness and positive campaigns do a lot more to reach those final few than the threat of sanctions which tend to just entrench "firmly held views".
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    MattW said:

    I see that the dodgy tweet alleged (or assumed) to have been made by Nadine Dorries turns out to have been made by someone else.

    :smile:

    Having deleted the original, she has had another go. Equally batshit...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    Three anecdotes from the outside world:
    1) Took the car for an MOT on Tuesday. As requested by the sign on the door, put my mask on as I went into the garage office when I went to pick it up. 'No need for that' the proprietor cheerfully assured me. 'You're the only one all day who's bothered'. He was cheerfully belligerent in his opposition to any more covid measures 'or this place won't be running any longer'. He'd had his booster jab because his dad had told him he had to or he wouldn't be coming for Christmas dinner.

    2) Conversation with a friend of mine at school drop-off yesterday. He embodies the red wall. Historically labour from a working class family, he's been less and less enamoured of them over the last ten years and was repelled by Corbyn. Thinks Starmer is a berk. But his view on the current shenanigans was as follows (read this in a broad, incredulous, Mancunian accent): "do you not think they've gone absolutely way over the top to this latest one? Is he [Boris] just trying to get sacked? He's just doing f*ck-up after f*ck-up."

    3) My youngest's infant school did her nativity play yesterday. I cannot conceive of anyone who could care more about the edcuation, welfare, wellbeing and happiness of the children in his care than the headmaster of this school. It is really, really important to him that normality continues for the children in that school. Anyway, I was really pleased it went ahead: it is my tenth, and last, nativity play as a parent - they don't do it in the junior's. And it was brilliant. And my youngest - who is a complicated little character: neither the competent, reliable demeanour of my oldest or the confident, outgoing character of my middle daughter - had one line, and was barely audible, and fidgeted throughout, but despite her nerves she did it, and she sang the songs and followed the cues, and I was prouder of her than I ever was of either of the older two's objectively much better performances.
    So anyway, well done to the school for going ahead regardless. Parents had to be masked (much to the apologies of the head, who reported it as a condition from DfE and TRafford public health for these to go ahead) but a small price to pay for such a momentous event.
    But I reported my joy at this to colleagues later in the day, and there was quite a lot of surprise and some disapproval that the event had been allowed to take place. It's a public sector organisation, with quite a lot of keenness for lockdown, and I didn't getthe impression that hostility was aimed at me personally - but there was more than a bit of the hint that the school were being selfish and/or self-indulgent in going ahead with a nativity play. Which I think is a shame.

    On the MOT garage. God bless the small businesses, the bedrock of Britain.
    Garages are just licenses to print money.
    Still amazed the same business can do test and repairs. I pay for a service just as insurance against them screwing me.
    I suspect the MOT is a loss leader.
    I bought a '19 plate BMW from Ron Skinner's earlier in the year. As it is under warranty I thought I better get it serviced by BMW at some lunatic hourly rate.

    Lo and behold Sytner BMW have told me the original owner purchased the car with a service package until March 2023 and that transferred with the car. Cheapest service ever!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Meanwhile the Lib Dems have called for Parliament to be extended virtually to pass new business support measures (it goes into recess today)

    "How can we look our local landlord in the eye & tell them Parliament broke up for Christmas when they're on the brink of going under?"

    https://twitter.com/LiseMcNally/status/1471472820341334026
  • Boris and Carrie Johnson have named their new baby, who was born in London last week, Romy Iris Charlotte.
  • maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/AlmondsburyCre1/status/1471462425224523785

    Almondsbury Creative
    @AlmondsburyCre1
    Gone from 120 booked for Christmas Afternoon tea this Saturday to 0, yes zero. The industry is being devastated yet again with absolutely no support.

    Another selfish pig who isn't willing to do WHATEVER IT TAKES.

    What? Go bankrupt for the good of the country?
    I think the final comment was supposed to be read as ironic.
    If that is the case, I was fooled by the lack of a "smiley" :wink::scream::D:D
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Scott_xP said:

    The Conservative MP for Bolton West @CGreenUK is calling for the £20 uplift to #UniversalCredit to be reinstated "immediately" - to help people cope with the impact of the #OmicronVariant on businesses, a cost of living crisis, and any future lockdowns:

    @GranadaReports https://twitter.com/LiseMcNally/status/1471472087361593347/video/1

    Makes a change from sharing anti-Semitic poems I guess.
    Said yesterday the inflation figure was the most important political thing that happened this week.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Scott_xP said:

    MattW said:

    I see that the dodgy tweet alleged (or assumed) to have been made by Nadine Dorries turns out to have been made by someone else.

    :smile:

    Having deleted the original, she has had another go. Equally batshit...
    Evidence that it was Dorries?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Boris and Carrie Johnson have named their new baby, who was born in London last week, Romy Iris Charlotte.

    Shows Carrie wears the trousers by rejecting Johnson's preference of Peppa.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    Three anecdotes from the outside world:
    1) Took the car for an MOT on Tuesday. As requested by the sign on the door, put my mask on as I went into the garage office when I went to pick it up. 'No need for that' the proprietor cheerfully assured me. 'You're the only one all day who's bothered'. He was cheerfully belligerent in his opposition to any more covid measures 'or this place won't be running any longer'. He'd had his booster jab because his dad had told him he had to or he wouldn't be coming for Christmas dinner.

    2) Conversation with a friend of mine at school drop-off yesterday. He embodies the red wall. Historically labour from a working class family, he's been less and less enamoured of them over the last ten years and was repelled by Corbyn. Thinks Starmer is a berk. But his view on the current shenanigans was as follows (read this in a broad, incredulous, Mancunian accent): "do you not think they've gone absolutely way over the top to this latest one? Is he [Boris] just trying to get sacked? He's just doing f*ck-up after f*ck-up."

    3) My youngest's infant school did her nativity play yesterday. I cannot conceive of anyone who could care more about the edcuation, welfare, wellbeing and happiness of the children in his care than the headmaster of this school. It is really, really important to him that normality continues for the children in that school. Anyway, I was really pleased it went ahead: it is my tenth, and last, nativity play as a parent - they don't do it in the junior's. And it was brilliant. And my youngest - who is a complicated little character: neither the competent, reliable demeanour of my oldest or the confident, outgoing character of my middle daughter - had one line, and was barely audible, and fidgeted throughout, but despite her nerves she did it, and she sang the songs and followed the cues, and I was prouder of her than I ever was of either of the older two's objectively much better performances.
    So anyway, well done to the school for going ahead regardless. Parents had to be masked (much to the apologies of the head, who reported it as a condition from DfE and TRafford public health for these to go ahead) but a small price to pay for such a momentous event.
    But I reported my joy at this to colleagues later in the day, and there was quite a lot of surprise and some disapproval that the event had been allowed to take place. It's a public sector organisation, with quite a lot of keenness for lockdown, and I didn't getthe impression that hostility was aimed at me personally - but there was more than a bit of the hint that the school were being selfish and/or self-indulgent in going ahead with a nativity play. Which I think is a shame.

    On the MOT garage. God bless the small businesses, the bedrock of Britain.
    Garages are just licenses to print money.
    Still amazed the same business can do test and repairs. I pay for a service just as insurance against them screwing me.
    I suspect the MOT is a loss leader.
    My garage does the MOT slightly cheaper if paid for in cash.
    The place I use wants a LOT of cash but they will pass absolutely anything, no questions asked.

    They passed my 996 when it was decatted, straight piped and audible 4 miles away at full chat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MattW said:

    I see that the dodgy tweet alleged (or assumed) to have been made by Nadine Dorries turns out to have been made by someone else.

    :smile:

    Having deleted the original, she has had another go. Equally batshit...
    Evidence that it was Dorries?

    It wasn't Dorries
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    Three anecdotes from the outside world:
    1) Took the car for an MOT on Tuesday. As requested by the sign on the door, put my mask on as I went into the garage office when I went to pick it up. 'No need for that' the proprietor cheerfully assured me. 'You're the only one all day who's bothered'. He was cheerfully belligerent in his opposition to any more covid measures 'or this place won't be running any longer'. He'd had his booster jab because his dad had told him he had to or he wouldn't be coming for Christmas dinner.

    2) Conversation with a friend of mine at school drop-off yesterday. He embodies the red wall. Historically labour from a working class family, he's been less and less enamoured of them over the last ten years and was repelled by Corbyn. Thinks Starmer is a berk. But his view on the current shenanigans was as follows (read this in a broad, incredulous, Mancunian accent): "do you not think they've gone absolutely way over the top to this latest one? Is he [Boris] just trying to get sacked? He's just doing f*ck-up after f*ck-up."

    3) My youngest's infant school did her nativity play yesterday. I cannot conceive of anyone who could care more about the edcuation, welfare, wellbeing and happiness of the children in his care than the headmaster of this school. It is really, really important to him that normality continues for the children in that school. Anyway, I was really pleased it went ahead: it is my tenth, and last, nativity play as a parent - they don't do it in the junior's. And it was brilliant. And my youngest - who is a complicated little character: neither the competent, reliable demeanour of my oldest or the confident, outgoing character of my middle daughter - had one line, and was barely audible, and fidgeted throughout, but despite her nerves she did it, and she sang the songs and followed the cues, and I was prouder of her than I ever was of either of the older two's objectively much better performances.
    So anyway, well done to the school for going ahead regardless. Parents had to be masked (much to the apologies of the head, who reported it as a condition from DfE and TRafford public health for these to go ahead) but a small price to pay for such a momentous event.
    But I reported my joy at this to colleagues later in the day, and there was quite a lot of surprise and some disapproval that the event had been allowed to take place. It's a public sector organisation, with quite a lot of keenness for lockdown, and I didn't getthe impression that hostility was aimed at me personally - but there was more than a bit of the hint that the school were being selfish and/or self-indulgent in going ahead with a nativity play. Which I think is a shame.

    On the MOT garage. God bless the small businesses, the bedrock of Britain.
    Garages are just licenses to print money.
    Still amazed the same business can do test and repairs. I pay for a service just as insurance against them screwing me.
    I suspect the MOT is a loss leader.
    My garage does the MOT slightly cheaper if paid for in cash.
    The place I use wants a LOT of cash but they will pass absolutely anything, no questions asked.

    They passed my 996 when it was decatted, straight piped and audible 4 miles away at full chat.
    My eardrums would like people like you to be arrested!!!!!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    kamski said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    I think unvaccinated people "on the wards" aren't going to be typical, not only because being hospitalised might make you change your mind a bit, but also because you might not want to piss off people responsible for maybe saving your life.

    I personally know quite a few unvaccinated people. Some are not "anti-vaxxers" - but are worried about side-effects and/or they are willing to take their chances with "natural" infection. Some are proper anti-vaxxers including some who believe bizarre things that to me seem so obviously completely implausible, and some who have been "radicalised" - they start by saying they want the right to refuse a medical treatment, and end up sharing seriously far-right memes. Actually quite scary.

    There aren't many left who "haven't got round to it".
    There are also the conspiracy theories among various groups. Having actually seen them - many are so grotesque and racist that I couldn't publish them here...

    EDIT- on the "haven't got round to it" - the phenomenon of people so disconnected from what is going on that it almost defies possibility is well documented. Another issue is how insanely disorganised some people are.
    Would add this group.
    I know quite a few who have utterly switched off from the news. This has been a conscious choice and has proved to be hugely positive for their mental health.
    Unfortunately, they now don't know what is going on.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I estimate SA are on for over 9000 admissions this week based on how previous weeks lagged data updates - that's up about 25%. The previous week on week increase was +80%. Their peak on the last wave was 14,725 admissions in a week.

    ICU/Ventilation percentages remain delightfully low.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    kamski said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    I think unvaccinated people "on the wards" aren't going to be typical, not only because being hospitalised might make you change your mind a bit, but also because you might not want to piss off people responsible for maybe saving your life.

    I personally know quite a few unvaccinated people. Some are not "anti-vaxxers" - but are worried about side-effects and/or they are willing to take their chances with "natural" infection. Some are proper anti-vaxxers including some who believe bizarre things that to me seem so obviously completely implausible, and some who have been "radicalised" - they start by saying they want the right to refuse a medical treatment, and end up sharing seriously far-right memes. Actually quite scary.

    There aren't many left who "haven't got round to it".
    There are also the conspiracy theories among various groups. Having actually seen them - many are so grotesque and racist that I couldn't publish them here...
    Indeed - I was kind of including that in the completely implausible beliefs and far-right memes, but I was probably understating it in some cases!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MattW said:

    I see that the dodgy tweet alleged (or assumed) to have been made by Nadine Dorries turns out to have been made by someone else.

    :smile:

    Having deleted the original, she has had another go. Equally batshit...
    Evidence that it was Dorries?

    It is exactly the type of stupid fucking shit that Mad Nad comes out with all the time so even if it were not her she deserves the blame for it anyway.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Another scientist disrespecting democracy by saying the same thing as government ministers https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1471474910388277255
  • Boris and Carrie Johnson have named their new baby, who was born in London last week, Romy Iris Charlotte.

    A nod to the classic Romy and Michelle's High School Reunion?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited December 2021
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

    https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

    Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

    No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
    Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.
    Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.
    In 30 or 40 years’ time, I’ll be able to tell my young grandkids that I was there, on that fateful evening in Abu Dhabi… ;)
    Yep. Just curious as someone who's only ever watched an F1 race on the telly - being there could you easily follow what was going on in that last couple of minutes?
  • MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    This is why vaccine passports will probably increase uptake to a degree. Suddenly not being able to do stuff means people will get round to it
    I'm not sure that they will, they've had them in France and the French still have around a million over 60s with no vaccines. Cajoling them by excluding them from a cocktail bar or nightclub doesn't seem like it will do the trick, at least IMO, and in France it didn't.

    The best way forwards is a really wide reaching public information and education campaign. We should have been preparing the ground for this as soon as the pandemic started. (Re)Building trust in vaccines, in scientific process, knocking down antivax sentiment online and on social media, ensured that everyone felt included in the process. That's what they did in Portugal and they've got 89% by population with at least one dose vs the UK at just over 76% and France at 80%. Public awareness and positive campaigns do a lot more to reach those final few than the threat of sanctions which tend to just entrench "firmly held views".
    The evidence from Scotland - in the Scottish Government's own report on them - is that they failed increase uptake. Indeed this was warned about before hand. Professor Sir John Montgomery reporting to the Scottish Parliament's Covid Recovery Committee said:

    “What you worry about with vaccine passports is that instead of seeking to address the reasons for distrust and concern, you aim to up the stakes for people and say that if you want to enter these things, you have to be vaccinated, and that may exacerbate distrust and come back to haunt us”.

    Turns out he was right.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    This is just unbelievable in the context of his comments about climate change and the TFL funding crisis.
  • Given Boris seems to be spending all his time in vaccination centres in London and omicron seems to be everywhere there, would anybody be shocked if it catches it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    Three anecdotes from the outside world:
    1) Took the car for an MOT on Tuesday. As requested by the sign on the door, put my mask on as I went into the garage office when I went to pick it up. 'No need for that' the proprietor cheerfully assured me. 'You're the only one all day who's bothered'. He was cheerfully belligerent in his opposition to any more covid measures 'or this place won't be running any longer'. He'd had his booster jab because his dad had told him he had to or he wouldn't be coming for Christmas dinner.

    2) Conversation with a friend of mine at school drop-off yesterday. He embodies the red wall. Historically labour from a working class family, he's been less and less enamoured of them over the last ten years and was repelled by Corbyn. Thinks Starmer is a berk. But his view on the current shenanigans was as follows (read this in a broad, incredulous, Mancunian accent): "do you not think they've gone absolutely way over the top to this latest one? Is he [Boris] just trying to get sacked? He's just doing f*ck-up after f*ck-up."

    3) My youngest's infant school did her nativity play yesterday. I cannot conceive of anyone who could care more about the edcuation, welfare, wellbeing and happiness of the children in his care than the headmaster of this school. It is really, really important to him that normality continues for the children in that school. Anyway, I was really pleased it went ahead: it is my tenth, and last, nativity play as a parent - they don't do it in the junior's. And it was brilliant. And my youngest - who is a complicated little character: neither the competent, reliable demeanour of my oldest or the confident, outgoing character of my middle daughter - had one line, and was barely audible, and fidgeted throughout, but despite her nerves she did it, and she sang the songs and followed the cues, and I was prouder of her than I ever was of either of the older two's objectively much better performances.
    So anyway, well done to the school for going ahead regardless. Parents had to be masked (much to the apologies of the head, who reported it as a condition from DfE and TRafford public health for these to go ahead) but a small price to pay for such a momentous event.
    But I reported my joy at this to colleagues later in the day, and there was quite a lot of surprise and some disapproval that the event had been allowed to take place. It's a public sector organisation, with quite a lot of keenness for lockdown, and I didn't getthe impression that hostility was aimed at me personally - but there was more than a bit of the hint that the school were being selfish and/or self-indulgent in going ahead with a nativity play. Which I think is a shame.

    On the MOT garage. God bless the small businesses, the bedrock of Britain.
    Garages are just licenses to print money.
    Still amazed the same business can do test and repairs. I pay for a service just as insurance against them screwing me.
    I suspect the MOT is a loss leader.
    My garage does the MOT slightly cheaper if paid for in cash.
    The place I use wants a LOT of cash but they will pass absolutely anything, no questions asked.

    They passed my 996 when it was decatted, straight piped and audible 4 miles away at full chat.
    My retired at a quarter of a million miles '06 Vectra had the ABS light illuminated for years. My now retired MOT tester said the MOT is merely a snapshot and he thought it was off when he checked it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edited December 2021
    BBC charming pic of baby Boris, but stealing the show is the hair of the feller on the left. Who can it remind me of?


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59686354
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    BREAKING: hearing that @nadhimzahawi and Department for Education is about to do an NHS-style "call to arms" to recently retired teachers and others who could return to schools to help ease the massive Covid pressures.
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1471475944598777860
  • LD 44.6%
    Con 38.7%
    Lab 8.9%
    REF 3.1%
    Grn 1.9%
    Others 2.8%

    Turnout 41.5%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    I believe this is Witty's take in regards to reason for "milder" and also why the worry about situation here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Maffew said:

    This is just unbelievable in the context of his comments about climate change and the TFL funding crisis.
    It's a blunt instrument to get families back into the centre. I know my sister and brother in law would jump at this because they've got a toddler and a baby, public transport for them is just out of the question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    algarkirk said:

    BBC charming pic of baby Boris, but stealing the show is the hair of the feller on the left. Who can it remind me of?


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59686354

    That's a fantastic mop.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    I'll go with a Con hold by 2k.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2021
    Amusingly the Oxygenated percentage in SA is higher that in previous waves. But because the ventilated figure is so low that's a good thing. People who would previously be ventilated are just getting oxygen instead.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Given Boris seems to be spending all his time in vaccination centres in London and omicron seems to be everywhere there, would anybody be shocked if it catches it.

    On no, not more bloody "clap for Boris" events every Thursday until kingdom come.
  • Pulpstar said:

    algarkirk said:

    BBC charming pic of baby Boris, but stealing the show is the hair of the feller on the left. Who can it remind me of?


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59686354

    That's a fantastic mop.
    The Boris mop gene is strong....
  • Boris and Carrie Johnson have named their new baby, who was born in London last week, Romy Iris Charlotte.

    If only they'd squeezed an 'n' in that would be all the letters of u-know-what.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    I believe this is Witty's take in regards to reason for "milder" and also why the worry about situation here.
    Hah, that's what the original question was last night, why is Whitty saying it's not milder when the SA evidence says it is, the Q actually came from a doctor as well so she was really happy to get an informed answer. It's a shame that this kind of gold is locked up in a whatsapp group of old uni mates and not written out on some government website or even in The Times.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    When I had my first jab, there was a long queue but you could see people dropping out as the school day ended. And many people are in jobs where they can't just nip out for a couple of hours but have to book a whole day off to get jabbed. Things are a bit better now with extended hours and weekends but it is still not ideal.
    I'm sorry but thats not good enough as a reason, when people can die of this disease. Find the fecking time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    I'll go with a Con hold by 2k.
    Tory hold with below 50% of the vote. Crystal ball murky on all other matters, but slightly expect Labour not to get squeezed out of sight.

  • kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone interested in posting their predictions for the North Shropshire by-election? We had one 2 weeks ago for Old Bexley & Sidcup, with NP-MP compiling the entries on that occasion.

    I'll go with a Con hold by 2k.
    I think lab and lib dem will split the vote, tories win by default, cue a lot of head scratching by labour voters
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    That's really interesting. If that is correct then it isn't vaccination which is key, but prior infection.
    (Obviously not implying vaccination isn't important).
  • Tonight? LD majority of 1,800. Dunno or care what %
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    I believe this is Witty's take in regards to reason for "milder" and also why the worry about situation here.
    Hah, that's what the original question was last night, why is Whitty saying it's not milder when the SA evidence says it is, the Q actually came from a doctor as well so she was really happy to get an informed answer. It's a shame that this kind of gold is locked up in a whatsapp group of old uni mates and not written out on some government website or even in The Times.
    The milder narrative became engrained in the media reporting very early in the same way as wuhan, 90% only suffer mild symptoms claim that people misunderstood what that meant.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    algarkirk said:

    BBC charming pic of baby Boris, but stealing the show is the hair of the feller on the left. Who can it remind me of?


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59686354

    I hope for her sake she's more baby Carrie than baby Boris! Great hair on the other one though!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    I think unvaccinated people "on the wards" aren't going to be typical, not only because being hospitalised might make you change your mind a bit, but also because you might not want to piss off people responsible for maybe saving your life.

    I personally know quite a few unvaccinated people. Some are not "anti-vaxxers" - but are worried about side-effects and/or they are willing to take their chances with "natural" infection. Some are proper anti-vaxxers including some who believe bizarre things that to me seem so obviously completely implausible, and some who have been "radicalised" - they start by saying they want the right to refuse a medical treatment, and end up sharing seriously far-right memes. Actually quite scary.

    There aren't many left who "haven't got round to it".
    There are also the conspiracy theories among various groups. Having actually seen them - many are so grotesque and racist that I couldn't publish them here...
    Indeed - I was kind of including that in the completely implausible beliefs and far-right memes, but I was probably understating it in some cases!
    Which brings us to another interesting point - many people would use "far-right" to only include Trumpets, white nazis etc. To me, the grotesque nutters all seem curiously similar.

    To give an example, a local religious leader turned out to be claiming that the vaccines were a Jewish plot. No, not who you might think - Seventh Day Adventist, from Nigeria, I think. But the horse manure he was shovelling sounded exactly like the guff the dribbling Neo-Nazis subscribe to.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: hearing that @nadhimzahawi and Department for Education is about to do an NHS-style "call to arms" to recently retired teachers and others who could return to schools to help ease the massive Covid pressures.
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1471475944598777860

    Really surprised that hasn't happened before now.
    There are more teachers not teaching than are. (Cos it's a cushy job with long holidays and great pensions, obvs.).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    That's really interesting. If that is correct then it isn't vaccination which is key, but prior infection.
    (Obviously not implying vaccination isn't important).
    Yes, he said three doses of vaccine was a really key way to get t-cell immunity which two doses doesn't really do but obviously infection does really, really well. This is specifically against severe symptoms too, not against infection. He said the list wrt infection would look different.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    That's really interesting. If that is correct then it isn't vaccination which is key, but prior infection.
    (Obviously not implying vaccination isn't important).
    Yes, he said three doses of vaccine was a really key way to get t-cell immunity which two doses doesn't really do but obviously infection does really, really well. This is specifically against severe symptoms too, not against infection. He said the list wrt infection would look different.
    Australia is going to be flattened then.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Boris and Carrie Johnson have named their new baby, who was born in London last week, Romy Iris Charlotte.

    A name for every faction of the new Conservative coalition of voters. Red Wall. Pensioners. Poshos.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    This thread has Cancelled its Christmas Booking...
  • Boris and Carrie Johnson have named their new baby, who was born in London last week, Romy Iris Charlotte.

    If only they'd squeezed an 'n' in that would be all the letters of u-know-what.
    Jointly Rasher Omicron Shot

    (with Johnson)
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    This tweet / headline made me laugh from The National

    'Scotland generates enough tax to cover all devolved spending – despite what opponents of independence would mislead you to believe' // @_KateForbes

    What’s missing?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    That's really interesting. If that is correct then it isn't vaccination which is key, but prior infection.
    (Obviously not implying vaccination isn't important).
    Yes, he said three doses of vaccine was a really key way to get t-cell immunity which two doses doesn't really do but obviously infection does really, really well. This is specifically against severe symptoms too, not against infection. He said the list wrt infection would look different.
    Which is of course what people (choose to) forget.

    Many, many infections, both reported and not but as of recently, no marked rise in hospitalisations, etc although I appreciate now we are on a much steeper leading indicator case path.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    IanB2 said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    Three anecdotes from the outside world:
    1) Took the car for an MOT on Tuesday. As requested by the sign on the door, put my mask on as I went into the garage office when I went to pick it up. 'No need for that' the proprietor cheerfully assured me. 'You're the only one all day who's bothered'. He was cheerfully belligerent in his opposition to any more covid measures 'or this place won't be running any longer'. He'd had his booster jab because his dad had told him he had to or he wouldn't be coming for Christmas dinner.

    2) Conversation with a friend of mine at school drop-off yesterday. He embodies the red wall. Historically labour from a working class family, he's been less and less enamoured of them over the last ten years and was repelled by Corbyn. Thinks Starmer is a berk. But his view on the current shenanigans was as follows (read this in a broad, incredulous, Mancunian accent): "do you not think they've gone absolutely way over the top to this latest one? Is he [Boris] just trying to get sacked? He's just doing f*ck-up after f*ck-up."

    3) My youngest's infant school did her nativity play yesterday. I cannot conceive of anyone who could care more about the edcuation, welfare, wellbeing and happiness of the children in his care than the headmaster of this school. It is really, really important to him that normality continues for the children in that school. Anyway, I was really pleased it went ahead: it is my tenth, and last, nativity play as a parent - they don't do it in the junior's. And it was brilliant. And my youngest - who is a complicated little character: neither the competent, reliable demeanour of my oldest or the confident, outgoing character of my middle daughter - had one line, and was barely audible, and fidgeted throughout, but despite her nerves she did it, and she sang the songs and followed the cues, and I was prouder of her than I ever was of either of the older two's objectively much better performances.
    So anyway, well done to the school for going ahead regardless. Parents had to be masked (much to the apologies of the head, who reported it as a condition from DfE and TRafford public health for these to go ahead) but a small price to pay for such a momentous event.
    But I reported my joy at this to colleagues later in the day, and there was quite a lot of surprise and some disapproval that the event had been allowed to take place. It's a public sector organisation, with quite a lot of keenness for lockdown, and I didn't getthe impression that hostility was aimed at me personally - but there was more than a bit of the hint that the school were being selfish and/or self-indulgent in going ahead with a nativity play. Which I think is a shame.

    On the MOT garage. God bless the small businesses, the bedrock of Britain.
    Garages are just licenses to print money.
    Still amazed the same business can do test and repairs. I pay for a service just as insurance against them screwing me.
    I suspect the MOT is a loss leader.
    They just add the balance onto the cost of replacing the brake pads afterwards.
    In NZ (albeit 20 years ago - it may have changed) there were specific testing sites, that just did testing.
    Surely the way to go?

    Also I suspect we have all heard of dodgy places that'll pass the car for a certain sum, often without actual inspection. A colleague tells of a chap in Portsmouth some 25 years ago whose garage was run from the local pub, along with all his paperwork too. I don't think he ever glimpsed the cars he passed for a 'fee'...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Alistair said:

    I estimate SA are on for over 9000 admissions this week based on how previous weeks lagged data updates - that's up about 25%. The previous week on week increase was +80%. Their peak on the last wave was 14,725 admissions in a week.

    ICU/Ventilation percentages remain delightfully low.

    Thats good!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    This sounds depressingly plausible;

    Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.

    When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"


    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1471440412153896961?t=amP94u8D6WCbyeqqAc8NZA&s=19

    Obviously, "haven't got round to it" is a rubbish excuse, but is there more that could have been done? The rollout seems to have lost oomph somewhere, albeit picked up again now.

    "Hadn't got round to it yet" is such a mealy mouthed response to not having got it and covering up a well of antivax sentiment in those who say it. Chris Whitty being far too kind, IMO.
    This is why vaccine passports will probably increase uptake to a degree. Suddenly not being able to do stuff means people will get round to it
    I'm not sure that they will, they've had them in France and the French still have around a million over 60s with no vaccines. Cajoling them by excluding them from a cocktail bar or nightclub doesn't seem like it will do the trick, at least IMO, and in France it didn't.

    The best way forwards is a really wide reaching public information and education campaign. We should have been preparing the ground for this as soon as the pandemic started. (Re)Building trust in vaccines, in scientific process, knocking down antivax sentiment online and on social media, ensured that everyone felt included in the process. That's what they did in Portugal and they've got 89% by population with at least one dose vs the UK at just over 76% and France at 80%. Public awareness and positive campaigns do a lot more to reach those final few than the threat of sanctions which tend to just entrench "firmly held views".


    OK but, looking at the Yougov poll from November 2020 this is how countries started off in terms of willingness to be vaccinated against coronavirus:

    UK 54%
    Germany 40%
    France 25%

    No figure for Portugal, but on those figures France has done a better job than most on persuading people to get vaccinated.

    Life has been made quite difficult and/or expensive for the unvaccinated in Italy, and this does seem to have boosted vaccine take up there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

    https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

    Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

    No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
    Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.
    Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.
    In 30 or 40 years’ time, I’ll be able to tell my young grandkids that I was there, on that fateful evening in Abu Dhabi… ;)
    The day Lewis was robbed of the championship and then gracefully retired.

    Toto Wolff seems to be dropping hints that Lewis will not be returning next season.
    Hamilton was knighted this week, which seems a bit premature if he plans to drive next year. But why should Mercedes drop him? Maybe the year after if young George is up to snuff.
    It's not Mercedes dropping him, the question is more will Lewis retire - which he may do if the car isn't good enough or because he wants to spend more time doing other things.

    Equally it could just be Mercedes applying pressure to F1 - think what the sport may look like in Lewis isn't there,
    Mercedes are dropping hints that the price for their silence this week, is the head of the race director.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    That's really interesting. If that is correct then it isn't vaccination which is key, but prior infection.
    (Obviously not implying vaccination isn't important).
    Infection is great because you see the whole of the virus, not just the spike. I'm pretty sure that three doses, especially mix and match will work pretty well for most people.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Mercedes drop their appeal of the rejection of their protest, a few hours before the FIA Gala.

    https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/status/1471419870680125441

    Sounds like some sort of deal done behind the scenes again, really not good for the sport.

    No, I think they had little option but to take the high road.
    Carrying on with the action would have been a disaster for them, win or lose.
    Definitely. It would have looked OTT and any 'win' wouldn't have been. They played it spot on. Consensus that it was unfair is established. Sport is littered with such. It's a perverse part of the attraction in a sense. F1 21 will be talked about for years.
    In 30 or 40 years’ time, I’ll be able to tell my young grandkids that I was there, on that fateful evening in Abu Dhabi… ;)
    The day Lewis was robbed of the championship and then gracefully retired.

    Toto Wolff seems to be dropping hints that Lewis will not be returning next season.
    Hamilton was knighted this week, which seems a bit premature if he plans to drive next year. But why should Mercedes drop him? Maybe the year after if young George is up to snuff.
    It's not Mercedes dropping him, the question is more will Lewis retire - which he may do if the car isn't good enough or because he wants to spend more time doing other things.

    Equally it could just be Mercedes applying pressure to F1 - think what the sport may look like in Lewis isn't there,
    Mercedes are dropping hints that the price for their silence this week, is the head of the race director.
    Meh - I have cancelled my subscriptions and deleted their app from all my devices - no time for scripted bullshit and after last week it'll be impossible to take it seriously regardless of 'lessons learned'
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Alistair said:

    I estimate SA are on for over 9000 admissions this week based on how previous weeks lagged data updates - that's up about 25%. The previous week on week increase was +80%. Their peak on the last wave was 14,725 admissions in a week.

    ICU/Ventilation percentages remain delightfully low.

    And for Gauteng it looks like the figures are going to struggle to get revised to any growth at all.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's another small bit of random information from a pharma person on modelled immunity based on vaccine and virus contact, from best to worst modelled immunity against severe symptoms:

    1. 3 doses + infection
    2. 2 doses + infection
    3. 1 dose + infection
    4. 3 doses = Infection and no vaccines
    5. 2 doses
    6. 1 dose
    7. No doses and no infection

    He thinks this is why SA has done better with Omicron than people thought they would and why we really need to get a rush for third doses. He said at the moment around 90% of over 50s are in the top 4 categories but getting that up above 95% will be the difference between an NHS crisis and not. Omicron, in his opinion, presents milder symptoms in SA because everyone already had COVID at least once before, it may not be intrinsically milder. Our glut of people in categories 5 and 6 are the most worrying aspect because SA doesn't have many people left who haven't been infected.

    That's really interesting. If that is correct then it isn't vaccination which is key, but prior infection.
    (Obviously not implying vaccination isn't important).
    Infection is great because you see the whole of the virus, not just the spike. I'm pretty sure that three doses, especially mix and match will work pretty well for most people.
    I sequenced the genome
    You had it in your blood
    I saw the spike
    But you had the flood
    You wandered out in the world for years
    While I just stayed in my room
    I got spike antibodies
    You got the whole, you're immune
    The whole, you're immune

    (with all due apologies to The Waterboys)
  • https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1471507639561383948

    Looks like it's trending the same way to me
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,167
    Evening. How many entries have we had in the prediction competition? (I've been offline since 12pm).
This discussion has been closed.